11/17/06 DLD: FIRE GEREN NOW!
by gigglingone on Nov 17, 2006 8:44 AM PST
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PrintOkay, so now that we're done with the whole stadium distraction, on to some other news....
- The A's have a manager! Woo hoo! Read about his luggage here
- Frank Thomas, Blue Jays DH. Good luck on the turf.
- And in case anyone forgot, today is FRIDAY!!
So sit back, grab a frosty cold something, and enjoy the last day before the weekend!!
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be careful what you wish for
Pupkits Here!
Real or hoax?
by SportySpice @ Athletics Nation on Nov 17, 2006 8:47 AM PST reply actions
They look real, they are drooping.
by theblackpearl on Nov 17, 2006 8:50 AM PST up reply actions
well played
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 17, 2006 8:55 AM PST up reply actions
Winner!!!
by SportySpice @ Athletics Nation on Nov 17, 2006 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
would those be kuppies, or pittens?
well
by Athletics fan and runner on Nov 17, 2006 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
conflicting reports,
Usher at 1st wedding.
Only
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 17, 2006 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
Hope there isn't a 3rd wedding
maybe by the 3rd wedding
If Geren and BB are meant to be together ...
Minor Leagues
Of note:
Kevin Goldstein: No doubt about it, it was definitely a nightmare. Nearly every top prospect has some sort of major injury -- many of them freakish.
At the same time, you did see some players (Travis Buck immediately comes to mind) take a step forward, and I liked what they did in the draft despite not having a first-round pick.
and
Kevin Goldstein: If your girlfriend doesn't like Borat, it's time to get a new girlfriend.
That last one is even funnier when you see who submitted the question.
Do unto others...
God may be a woman ...
He is a living human being.
That was my question
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 17, 2006 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
whoops
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 17, 2006 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
No
by BlameChannel53 on Nov 17, 2006 12:06 PM PST up reply actions
Would such a ban have as much effect
by DavidA on Nov 17, 2006 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
I myself am banned from entering ...
The last time I rode my vassal into town, the peasantry took umbrage at my palindromic presumption.
monkeyball's relatives are out of control
The Great Ape Trust of Iowa, huh?
the Great Ape Mistrust of another 2000 event
Only his relatives?
I heard that a savage rumbaugh always beings a smile to monkeyball's face.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
following on the SF values/miscegenation theme
not necessarily ...
I don't have a dog in that fight
who do you think I am -- Mark Foley?
Doing what you suggest, palindromically:
plagiarist!
So, Oz...Vancouver, you say?
But a British man was jailed for tracking down an internet message board foe and beating him.
"A British man said to have carried out the country's first "Web rage" attack was jailed for 2-1/2 years on Friday for assaulting a man with whom he had exchanged insults over the Internet...After several more verbal and written exchanges, during which Jones threatened to track down Gibbons and give him a severe beating, Gibbons and a friend went to his victim's house in Essex, east of London, armed with a pickaxe and a machete."
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 9:36 AM PST reply actions
So, salb...Cambridge, you say?
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
technically ...
Just goes to show
I wonder if Morris accepted the offer
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Don't let fear hold you back.
Of course, this is also a city where, if you're standing on the side of a main road, the traffic will stop on both sides in case you want to cross.
Really annoying when you're waiting for a cab.
Well, given the comparative Aussie/Canadian images
By comparison, my disfiguring scars, missing teeth, and facial tattoos don't even get me threatening street urchin status in Oakland.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
can we start calling you ...
Bo Schembechler passes away....
Hmmm...
by DavidA on Nov 17, 2006 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
That was a huge game...
by OaktownPower on Nov 17, 2006 4:10 PM PST up reply actions
OT: Get a grip, people.
So can needing a DH.
See Blue Jays, Toronto.
with Frank, likely the 'injured' bit, too
and if he tangles with Gibbons...
Don't say anything!!!!!!!!!!
by gigglingone on Nov 17, 2006 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
Pretty good episode,
The Code Black and 17 sec
I can't watch that episode.
I was in a train accident a few years ago, a little traumatic! My mom watched the ep and told me not to watch it. So I probably never will. Only episode I have not seen.
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Nov 17, 2006 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Man...
Izzie and Alex talking in third person was hilarious. And I can't believe Alex is putting up with Sloan. That's so not like him... but it's funny.
Also, George knows! What do you think will happen to Christina/Burke when everyone finds out? Eeek.
Next week's promo:
Christina: We crossed the line. (Ya think?)
Burke: You made me cross the line.
Can't wait.
For sure...
George frustrated me a lot of the time. Dude...just stand up for yourself and stop being treated like crap! Argh!
by baseballgirl on Nov 17, 2006 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I <3 George!!
And I am starting to warm up to Callie! She annoys me a little, but I really like the fact that they have a REAL woman on that show! And she was so good with his brothers, I totally started balling when they finally "got it!"
Her and McSteamy!! EW!! That needs to stop! She should be with George!
Izzie and Alex are too much for me! He is freaking HOT and they are just too cute together! I love how he jumped back into the third person again at the bar. That was sweet.
That episode made me want to take a bath!!
I Love that show!!
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Nov 17, 2006 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
if you use craigslist for prostitutes...
I hate it when my ...
They busted Sting, too?
They should bust Sting.
Pretentious, thy name rhymes with 'bling'.
truth be told ...
Yeah, Sting's a pretentious git (and I'm guessing it's overproduced, Chieftains/Loreena McKennit-like garbage) and hasn't done anything interesting in 25 years, but I'm a big early music fan, and it could be kinda intriguing.
First concert I ever went to:
I figured it out a few years later.
I had the same experience ....
Having heard it...
Especially the bits where he reads ancient love poems.
oh, well ...
It'll work.
Haven't had that kind of response since I played the Gina Gershon album, Prey for Rock n Roll.
Fire ESPN NOW!!!
Swisher an All-Star??? Did I miss something???
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Nov 17, 2006 10:20 AM PST reply actions
Yes
by Helloooo 1st on Nov 17, 2006 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
am I the only one ...
Housing is cyclical ...
also, it's the bay area
houses will bounce higher ...
I've always said that rubber houses
in hurricane alley they can build unanchored houses with attached parachutes ...
here, in sacramento, we can go with land base house boats ...
and along the Gulf, they can build houses with lots of holes cut in them ...
people have been saying that ...
why would people say that
housing and economy
as far as the general economy is concerned, GDP is growing at around 3-3.5% and has been for many quarters now, and unemployment has been low for the last 14 years.
yeah, and wages are stagnant or decreasing ...
whatever you say dailykos
i bet quite a bit of that GDP growth is going to people who will buy $1-3 million condos, and much of it is going to people who want to buy those condos in the southern bay area.
the US is a pretty diverse place, i don't think wolff is trying to sell condos to poor families in louisiana, single moms in ohio or steel workers in pa.
there's a massive housing shortage in california, and the economy here is doing quite well. i'm sure talkingpoints memo will start covering it now that the dems have taken congress.
lol
by FoolshGame22 on Nov 17, 2006 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
actual unemployment numbers are stratospheric
People who have given up on finding work are no longer counted. People who go back to school because they can't get a job aren't counted. People who went from full time work to part time (24 hrs or less per week) are considered 'employed', and there's never been more of them than right now. People who joined the army because they couldn't find a job aren't considered unemployed either.
People who have downgraded their jobs so they have an income (for example, getting laid off in a managerial position and taking a job stacking shelves at Wal*Mart) are not counted, though those people are massive in number.
You can take the Kool-Aid and play the 'looney lefty' card all you like, but actual financial stats that aren't tweaked by vested interests, like average wage, average working hours, number of active participants paying into unemployment insurance, size of manufacturing sector, etc, have gone off the scale the last three six years.
Oh, and if you work out the employment growth of the entire Bush term, not to be partisan or anything, but he's only added two million jobs (of any type - fulltime or part time) in six years. That's an awful, awful stat, even if your own situation is peachy.
three six = six.
do you actually read the posts
i never disputed what monekyball said about unemployment numbers, just that they've been low for 14 years now.
how they are calculated has changed over the last 10 years, according to you. so?
So it has changed in order to keep numbers..
"Wow, unemployment is only 4%! That's great!"
While at the same time, some 20% of people who were in full time work in 2000 and now part timers, and another 20% are earning less than they were as full-timers.
You can cherrypick numbers to crow about, but the reality is that peoples is hurtin'.
again
CEOs are doing great.
IE: If you sling fries, you're in a growth industry. If you don't, you're making ends meet while your boss cleans up.
If you're lucky.
"EVERY SINGLE INDUSTRY except services"
because the US GDP by sector is:
agriculture: 1%
industry: 20.4%
services: 78.7%
I'm sorry, did you miss where I said...
You quoted me GDP. That's a measure of what the industry owners are making, not the people working the wheel in the basement.
once again
here's a hint, it's essentially everything that's not agriculture or industry. they divide it into those three sectors, there are no other options. notice how 1 + 20.4 + 78.7 = 100.1% of GDP, that's everything.
i'm betting 90% of the people reading this right now are in the service sector. do YOU work in agriculture? industry?
the vast majority of US workers are in the services sector. so to call that "slinging fries" and then to state that every single other sector has shrunk is about as disingenuous as you can possibly get. obviously agriculture and industry are shrinking.
another way to say that would be "we live in a post-industrial developed nation."
notice the US is blue:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gdp-and-labour-force-by-sector.png
that's not all CEOs and industry owners.
Clearly you don't know what makes up services..
Services is retail, hopsitality and tourism.
It's slinging fries, cleaning hotel rooms and serving drinks. It's running price checks at Wal*Mart. It's telemarketing.
It ain't manufacturing. It ain't IT (which is down some 19% in the last four years). It ain't even consulting or design or managerial services.
It's 'serving'. Working the Starbucks. That's the ONLY industry in the US that has any growth over the last four years.
And your map demonstrates the fact.
and that's 79% of the US economy?
wow, things really are bad if 80% of americans sling fries, clean hotel rooms, and serve drinks. yet i don't know a single person who does any of those things. i must be a CEO.
Yes, XB. That's exactly the case.
They're also the lowest paying employer in America of all Fortune 1000 companies.
You've got 12m undocumented workers eating jobs in agriculture and construction. You've got massive outsourcing in manufacturing. You've got massive drops in IT.
But hey, you don't know any poor people, so I guess they don't exist.
wal mart
the service sector, those that sling fries, clean hotel rooms, and serve drinks, also includes:
The service sector consists of the "soft" parts of the economy such as insurance, government, tourism, banking, retail and education. In soft sector employment, people use time to deploy knowledge assets, collaboration assets, and process-engagement to create productivity (effectiveness), performance improvement potential (potential) and sustainability. Typically the output of this time is content (information), service, attention, advice, experiences, and/or discussion (aka, "intangible goods"). Other examples of service sector employment include:
Franchising
Restaurants
Retailing
Entertainment, including the Record industry, Music industry, Radio, Television and Movies.
News media
Leisure industry / hotels
Consulting
Transport
Healthcare / hospitals
Public utilities are often considered part of the tertiary sector as they provide services to people, while creating the utility's infrastructure is often considered part of the secondary sector, even though the same business may be involved in both aspects of the operation.
---
so if i don't anyone in the service sector because i don't know anyone who slings fries, cleans hotel rooms, and serves drinks" i guess i also don't know any of STARVING peoploe who work in insurance, government, banking, education, entertainment, media, consulting, health care, public utilities, etc...
Dude, I don't know where you're getting your stats
Banking is not in the service industry, it's in finance.
Are there people who 'serve' in those industries? Sure, but you're getting yourself way confused here.
Just in case you guys are still going ...
What is the service economy? To XbX it's everything that doesn't include a factory or a hoe. Manufacturing, agriculture, service, nada mas. In that definition, service includes essentially every single office job in America, as well as Walmart and McDonalds, as well as Miramax and Universal.
To Oz it's a much smaller segment of the economy. I'm not exactly sure what is cut out of it -- but he seems to think it only includes Walmart, McDs and similar.
I don't know how to sort out your definitions ... but the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that:
Industry 01/96 01/01 08/06
GoodsPro 23194 24534 22427
Services 94998 107937 113177
Which shows:
an 8.5% loss in Goods Production (manufacturing and construction) since 01 and 3.3% since 96.
and
a 4.9% increase in Services since 01 and 19.1% since 96.
But that doesn't answer the big question -- what constitutes Services.
Segments included with "Services" include "Retail", "Wholesale" and "Hospitality", but it also includes "Professional and Business Services", "Education and Health Services" and "Government"
Over the periods mentioned above,
Retail has dropped by 1% since 01 and increased by 9% since 06.
Wholesale has declined negligibly since '01 but increased by 7% since '96.
Hospitality has increased by 9.4% since '01 and 23% since '96.
Professional/Business has increased by 3.3% since 01 and 33% since 96 (it fell off over '01 but has grown steadily since early '03).
Education/Health has increased by 16% since '01 and 32% since '96.
Government has increased by 5.7% since 01 and 13.2% since '96.
Also, the growth in Walmart jobs has been offset by declines from their competitors as Department Stores have declined by 11.4% since '01 and 3.8% since '96.
But what we really care about is earnings.
In 1982 dollars the average private sector employee makes $275.82 as of August '06 (about $550 in today's dollars). That's an increase of $.99 since '01 and $20.76 since '96.
All "Services" earn $259.04 today, an increase of $3.25 and $24.56.
All "Retail" earn $186.07, a decrease of $5.80 since '01 but an increase of $11.40 since '96.
Professional/Business earn $322.91, up $14.65 and $50.04.
Education/Health earn $274.30, up $14.19 and $29.71.
I'll leave it to you guys to draw conclusions -- but there is the actual data.
largest employer in america is wal-mart?
14.6 million employees vs 1.8 million employees.
all slinging fries, cleaning hotel rooms, serving drinks, running price checks, and telemarketing. poor bastards.
what about this
.."worker numbers" in every single industry?
You quoted me GDP. That's a measure of what the industry owners are making"
first of all, GDP is not "a measure of what the industry owners are making" but that's not the point.
the point is, the map had the "worker numbers" you were looking for, right?
the GDP numbers for services was around 80%.
the worker numbers for services was around 80%.
imagine that.
so when you say "EVERY SINGLE INDUSTRY except services have shrunk over the past four years" what you really mean is that EVERY SINGLE INDUSTRY except what makes up 80% of our GDP and 80% of our work force.
You're right ...
and what do you mean by "stratospheric"?
I have, but that's neither here nor there.
The US, unfortunately, isn't. Australia likewise.
are you saying
and as far as your earlier post, are those contries NOT counting the "underemployed" as employed?
I'm saying it's the same.
By the way, did you see yesterday that, because there's so many people in the US who claim they went hungry for at least part of last year, that the S Govt is now changing what the statistic is called from 'starving' to 'lack of food security'?
you're right, let's all move to france and germany
screw that!
I would prefer that
i will
Hey!
Now, the Kazakhs don't quite have the, shall we say, competitive ruthlessness of Karimov and the Uzbekis ... but they do have more A's!
Market fervor, sorta like Mumia ...
also
From what I understand..
I myself prefer the twin C's ...
</HollywoodOz>
Oz
Oops...
Oz is more interested in biting her ass, with the expectation of reciprocal benefits.
something tells me
but the main scandal in france at the moment is the clearstream thing, where de villepin tried to destroy nicolas sarkozy (both from the same party).
I'll stop talking bout Scarlett ...
based on your other comment
and it's not just a french hatred
What offsets that:
In addition, GDP per person is less than in the US precisely BECAUSE they work less than Americans do. The work week in France is 34 hours. In the US it's 44.
They also get universal health care, old age pensions... I could go on.
And let's not even start talking about what Canadians get that the US doesn't, with a tax rate that's only 2% higher.
whatever money people get from the govt
here we keep people above the poverty line by making people work and actually earn money:
Though their numbers remain steady, the lot of America's poor may be improving in ways not reflected by the official figures
Aug 30th 2006
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_SRVPVPS
"The poverty rate is over a percentage point lower than it was when Mr Clinton signed the infamous bill. Child poverty has fallen even more dramatically."
...
"Obesity is now the chief nutritional woe facing America's poor. And those under the poverty line now have nearly as much house space and amenities as the average family in 1980."
Oh please.
How's this then, from the Washington Post a few days ago:
The U.S. government has vowed that Americans will never be hungry again. But they may experience "very low food security."Every year, the Agriculture Department issues a report that measures Americans' access to food, and it has consistently used the word "hunger" to describe those who can least afford to put food on the table. But not this year.
Mark Nord, the lead author of the report, said "hungry" is "not a scientifically accurate term for the specific phenomenon being measured in the food security survey." Nord, a USDA sociologist, said, "We don't have a measure of that condition."
The USDA said that 12 percent of Americans -- 35 million people -- could not put food on the table at least part of last year. Eleven million of them reported going hungry at times. Beginning this year, the USDA has determined "very low food security" to be a more scientifically palatable description for that group.
The United States has set a goal of reducing the proportion of food-insecure households to 6 percent or less by 2010, or half the 1995 level, but it is proving difficult. The number of hungriest Americans has risen over the past five years. Last year, the total share of food-insecure households stood at 11 percent.
Let's call it how it is - last year, 11% of American families STARVED.
the economist is the most right-leaning
and that information from the washington post doesn't contradict anything from the economist article. i'd like to see you find information that does.
the post: "The number of hungriest Americans has risen over the past five years."
the economist: "The poverty rate is over a percentage point lower than it was when Mr Clinton signed the infamous bill. Child poverty has fallen even more dramatically."
those two things are not mutually exclusive. i think the economist's point is more relevant HERE as we were discussing government handouts, and it's looking at figures since clinton signed the welfare reform bill in the early 90s. that doesn't mean the number of hungry americans didn't rise over the last FIVE years.
and the point wasn't that "poverty isn't a problem", where did you get that straw man argument from?
and i think there's a difference between "hungry" (the post) and "STARVED" (you).
Unable to feed your children is not 'hungry'.
Ask Consuela when she's finished cleaning your deck.
When were underemployed folks
Granted, the growth of the service industry has made it a lot easier to be underemployed ...
I'm not disagreeing with your larger points ... I'd just like a bit of clarification there ...
Reagan started the number changing.
Clinton was perhaps the worst offender, at least over his first couple of years. The economy wasn't yet kicking off and his numbers wee in the toilet.
Bush II, however, has taken it to the level of a martial art. Right now, in order to be considered unemployed, you basically have to be on UI and not earning anything at all in casual, part-time or even volunteer work.
any further reading you can refer me to?
In 6 or 8 years ...
housing bad
The US housing market might not suffer too badly for too long, might. However in the places where the runup has been greatest, it will probably take much, much time to find our bottom. Last California cycle saw it's peak in 1990 and didn't hit bottom until 1997, that's a long time to wait it out.
And it's even worse now because of all the insane loans out there. 80% on ARMs, a ton of those are IO ARMS. These haven't even begun to reset. When they do and people are $100,000 underwater, it's Bankruptcy/foreclosure city. And all that housing you couldn't build fast enough? Builders are severely discounting their stock right now, which puts added downward pressure on the resale market, which is where the comps going forward come from.
It is going to get ugly. And the Feds are not going to lower rates any time soon to cushion the loss.
Check out this blog for a running discussion of all things housing related.
That's a good point ...
There's a reason, a month ago, that I bought...
It's going to be a bankruptcy tsunami, and with the new bankruptcy laws that don't let you get out of your bankruptcy until you've paid your debt (doesn't apply to corporations, natch), it'll hurt for a long, long, long time.
every coastal Californian ...
Close.
Now, if they could just get another Total Recall...
perhaps you missed it
I saw it.
Though everything else about the day made me joyful.
You?
i don't belong to any political party
but congrats
good luck in 08 trying to get to 4/11 on prez elections since lbj.
It was nice.
Weak.
And as for Arnold... well, he's softened a little since the days when Enron financed the Davis recall and Arnold's election bid, only for him to turn around as soon as he was elected and settle all California's court claims against Enron for pennies on the dollar.
But I should probably stop. FWIW, I'm not actually a Democrat, but since there's only one more option in American politics than there is in China, you take the closest to your leanings and go with it.
Not true ...
Just like in America, the President has identified the Democratic Party as a subversive group.
In China-owned Hong Kong...
Hey! That's an incorrect allegation!
... the homeless (excuse me, "food-and-shelter-insecure") he had bussed in from Philly were distributing 'em!
research on who i vote for?
obviously i also liked plenty of candidates from both parties that won, and i was hoping the republicans would lose control based on the performance of the 109th Congress and because i don't like the idea of all branches of government being controlled by a single party.
why should i care whether steele tries to pass himself off as a democrat? i just said that i don't belong to any political party.
<Reads Mark Halperin
<Instead becomes dummmer>
<Cant even spel no more>
<Poppy's baws fires me all thancks to Halperin>
in 08
my dream matchup would be bayh-ford jr against romney-giuliani.
you have weird dreams, dude
Hmmm ...
Mirren-Deneuve?
maybe you have grandmother issues.
better than Grand Mal issues ...
Et alas, pauvre Francoise, taken before her time.
I prefer Ford Prefect
but we're interested
the job market in the Bay Area
Lew is a big boy
But the Bay Area is not only not immune to the housing slump we are just starting to experience, it's perfectly set up to be hit hard. The median household income is high here, but still ONLY $75,000 or so.
But let's double that to the roughly %15 of households who make $150,000 plus. Can they afford a $800,000 house/condo on a %10 down 90% carried 30 year fixed mortgage? That's $5000 a month before Taxes and insurance, so ballpark it to $6000/month.
That's almost a %50 ratio, which historicly has been a no go for any legit lender. All this has been fine if you are using an option ARM and can count on appreciation of your home, but in a stagnant period, option ARMs are death traps.
Just saying, the transfer of the equity bubble to the housing bubble worked for a while and helped keep our state from having to face it's serious budget issues. But interest rates are back up again and not going to allow an easy bailout for so many screwed borrowers. The numbers don't add up right now. And a soft RE market for a few years combined with inflation eating in real value is needed to get things back in whack.
15% who make 150k plus
right
My main point, and I don't know if you are arguing this or not, is that prices are not affordable using traditional loans. I'm not even saying too high or too low, I'm saying that these prices, driven up by speculation, cheap money, cheaper credit, crooked appraisers, are only affordable using non-standard loans OR if you are BETTING on prices going up to bail you out in a refi or house flip situation. Not to mention that the ratio of rent to mortgage is also so out of whack.
Look, there is no doubt that Bay Area RE will always command a premium, but inventories are sky high, sales are in the toilet, prices are falling and the buyers still are not showing up, and the IO loans won't even start to reset on mass until 2007.
THAT's what I'm talkin' 'bout
xbx (or should I riposte and call you "Professor Reynolds"?), of course Lew isn't marketing his ballpark housing to the poor -- but neither is he planning on marketing them to the super-rich. He's going to be marketing them to the upper end of the middle class -- and that's precisely the sector that's experiencing the fastest loss of traction in the economy right now and for the immediate projected future. And add to that the fact that at some point in the next 5 years, taxes will be raised fairly significantly (not advocating for it, just projecting that they likely will), with special focus on upper-tier incomes ...
Plus, the demonstrated needs in housing aren't for upper-echelon housing. And there's no such thing as a trickle-down effect in housing -- when Joe Moneybags gets kicked out of his condo, it's not as if 6 families get to move Soviet-style into the unit.
Hey, I'm neither a real estate mogul nor a savvy investor. But it seems to me even in my ig'nint state that there's some distinct potential for a development this massive to carry a hefty dose of risk, and that aspect of the project has not heretofore been discussed hereabouts.
okay, then i guess we all agree
of course there is risk, but the southern bay area isn't really much of a risk.
like i trust beane when he trades hudson and mulder, based on his past success as GM, i tend to trust lew wolff when it comes to this deal based on his success as a developer.
did you just call me a blogging law professor at tennessee? i'm really offended. please don't call me professor volokh next, i would be devastated.
again, of all the places in the Bay Area ...
I'm in no way saying that LEW'S STADIUM PLAN IS GONNA DIE!!!, just that I find it interesting that, in such a market fraught with obvious risks (and potential for it to get worse and not recover by the time the sales office opens, which will be well in advance of the actual groundbreaking let alone completion), Lew is moving forward with the plan as outlined. Wolff is one confident man.
... just as I'm devastated by your calling me a high-tech entrepreneur ...
"high tech"?
So that leaves maybe 10% of the Bay Area that
call it 300,00 households
but we haven't even begun discussing personal savings versus debt. It gets worse (harder to justify affordability) if we factor in credit card debt, auto loans, student loan debt, etc...
This whole debt swarm is why they pushed bankruptcy "reform" when they did. The hyper-extention of credit post equity bubble and during the historically low interest rate times was buoying up the economy on consumer borrowing.
lets not talk about debt vs savings ...
Yeah, if I could wipe my debt clean, I could buy a house today, even with prices the way they are ... 3 more years ... and the only debt I'll have will be interest free ... that'll be nice ... now as debt starts to roll off as early as next spring, I just have to keep to my goal of not increasing spending and instead direct that income to savings ...
You're right ... we're screwed ... now I'm depressed.
That's why Lew is moving to Fremont
The median household income in Fremont is $93,606. The median home price: $620,000.
For Oakland: Median Household Income = $48,432
Median Home Price = $473,250
by FoolshGame22 on Nov 17, 2006 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
No, it won't.
- In the Northeast and Midwest, housing prices are actually falling right now, with some sellers unable to find buyers even after six months of listing. In Australia, prices have dropped 20% in the last year, after four years straight of hard rises - and the market is crumbling. UK ditto. Canada is dropping, with only Vancouver holding flat by virtue of climate, Olympics coming in 2010, and limited land availability.
- Over 70% of new mortgages in the California market over the last five years have been interest only - these turn into deathtrap mortgages when housing prices start dropping hard and people begin to owe more than they borrowed, with no actual possibility that they'll ever pay off their mortgage. People start to bail, owing thousands, chaos ensues.
- This year, billions of dollars worth of 5-year variable rate mortgages left their honeymoon rates of 4-5% and jumped to rates of 7-8%, leaving people who 'upgraded' to suddenly either have to sell and downgrade to something they can afford to pay for, or double their mortgage payments each month. Next year, the number of mortgages that will experience this is due to triple. Ditto the year after that.
- Realtors in the northeast and midwest are leaving the profession in droves, saying bad things are on the way and claiming people aren't buying. When realtors bail, real estate is in trouble.
- Flippers have moved their money into the share market, because nobody is buying flips anymore. Hence the sudden share market spike, and real estate price drop.
- New starts have continued to increase, despite sales decreasing sharply. There's a big oversupply of new developments across North America, especially in the cities, and city councils all over are having to deal with holes in the ground that are being left abandoned by developers on high priced pieces of land.
- Rentals no longer cover mortgage costs - not by a long shot - leaving people in financial trouble no option but to sell, and since nobody is buying, they're selling at a loss. Panicselling equals big price drops.
- I just sold my condo, taking a nice profit but missing the peak value spot by a few months. We're going to go rent for a while, thereby cutting our monthly expenses by nearly half without any downgrade in living situation. Once the drop has hit bottom, we're getting back in, but we bought 18 months ago for $197k. We sold yesterday for $295k. If we'd have sold a month ago, we could have got $335k. A neighbor listed his identical property at that price two weeks ago because another neighbor got $335k a month ago, and he can't get anyone to even look at it. He's now dropping his price to $290k in hope of getting a nibble.
I could go on. In fact, I just did. Don't hold on expecting a bounce - there's no buyers in the market right now - only long term investors and silly money from people hoping that a bounce will happen. Sell if you can and wait it out, because this is just the beginning of a really bad scene.
As for Lew, he won't have to worry until 2011, and chances are that'll coincide with prices stabilizing, if not growing.
northeast and midwest
I don't know if it is feasible
by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Nov 17, 2006 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Whoa
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15759622/?GT1=8717
Funny, wasn't there a Final Destination reference in the link dump a few days ago?
Please tell me ESPN was also supposed to be there.
Big, Bearded Gary...
Brad (NM): Hey Gary..awesome we can still talk baseball in November isn't it? Since the A's let Frankie T go, who will they target to spend some money on?
SportsNation Gary Gillette: Bonds would be a good fit for several reasons, not the least of which would be to raise their visibility in the South Bay
vis-a-vis the Giants as they build their new palace in Fremont.
anyone watching sopranos season 6 on dvd?
the hosts thought it was a bad move
While we're on the subject
He and Kielty can platoon next year in LF. He could be cheaper that Catalanatto.
Interesting idea
a healthy player?
If the A's wanted healthy players..
And isn't, um, a tad overweight...?
a tad?
I was thinking a..
"Tad Lincoln Continental"
"Tad Lincoln Continental Divide"
Tad Lincoln Continental Divide-and-Conquer
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
TadLinolnContinentalDivideAndDarvaConquer.
TadLincolnContinentalDivideAndDarvaLemurConker
TadLincolnContinentalDivideAndDarvaLemurPeruConker
TadLincolnContinental ...
Filed under "overly prolix David Lynch villains."
And when he flies away at supersonic speed
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 4:05 PM PST up reply actions
and when he starts the Nazi party...
Post of the bunch!
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions
we're not done yet!
... all of the previous, locked inside a wooden box inside an iron box inside a wooden box!
Just getting started...
- Started World War I!
I know it has been decades now
by mikedaviswhereareyou on Nov 17, 2006 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
Indeed!
unlike, say, mathematicians
Danny Haren's getting married today
by Chavinator on Nov 17, 2006 1:34 PM PST reply actions
who's his best man?
SOOOOO close
Even closer... if we're lucky.
'Fire on' Rae Dawn Chong.
Se?or Clutch!
sure it is ...
And they all could be combined into one...
See...now THAT is the problem with him as the DH.
by baseballgirl on Nov 17, 2006 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
unrecommend diaries
You know what we need?
get on that, why doncha?
City/County dwellers get (slim) consolation prize
Presumably Al Davis' minions have already brought him the requisite writs and his appealin' quill.
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Nov 17, 2006 5:25 PM PST reply actions
<vomits in mouth>
ENHANCING SUBSTANCES BAN LIFTED!!!
where is the saturday DLD?
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