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Around SBN: So Let's Talk About Hulk Too, I Suppose

Keith Law ranks Zito #15 at best of free agents for '07

Keith Law from ESPN.com writes:

Zito is a third or fourth starter with the reputation of a one or a two. In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees while walking 47 men and allowing 18 homers in 83.3 innings. His control is below-average; only Daniel Cabrera has walked more batters in the last two years than Zito has. And should Zito's stuff slip at all, he becomes a fifth starter or a guy who needs to head to the National League, the current destination for asylum-seekers who fear AL persecution of their fringy fastballs.
----------------------

Players that Keith Law ranked higher than Zito include GIL MECHE AT NUMBER 13, Ted Lilly at #12, Mike Mussina at #11, Julio Lugo at #9, & Andy Pettite at #6.  

What a joke.  Seriously, I subscribe to ESPN Insider to read this garbage???  Gil Meche ranked higher than Zito????  Zito a 3rd, 4th, or even 5th starter at best????  I just can't get over this idiot.

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Lilly over Zito?
Sweet, lets resign Z.  5 years 3 mil?
"It is like Menudo, where guys reach a certain age and are kicked out of the band. And they go on to be Ricky Martins somewhere else." -Billy Beane

by WhiteElephantGuy on Nov 10, 2006 2:55 PM PST reply actions  

I like Zito
But I like Law. I think he is right about Zito. If you allow more walks than every pitcher in baseball except Daniel Cabrera and throw 86 that doesn't bode well for your long-term success. I'm in the minority here, but from a subjective standpoint I don't think Zito pitched very well this year (nor do I think Chavez fielded very well this year). He's been very "hit-lucky" the past two years and I think he's going to be a Zito '03 type guy on his best day. Say waht you want about Law, but the man is bold.

by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 2:58 PM PST reply actions  

Really?
I completely agree with Law.  Maybe not about some of the players above Zito (though I can see his points) but I think his analysis of Z is pretty spot-on.  I doubt Boras will agree with us though.  

Another Boras candidate I really like and think he could be a good signing became a FA.  He would certainly fit in under our injury-plagued, defensively gifted strategy: J.D. Drew.  He, along with Bonds, could be great additions of LH bats.  Thomas is of course number 1 on my wish list but we need some MAJOR improvements on offense.  

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Nov 10, 2006 3:09 PM PST reply actions  

No to Drew...
Drew walked away from $10+ million a year with the Dodgers, which means he expects to get far more from someone else. Even if the A's were interested, he's completely out of our price range.

I suspect the improved offense for the A's will have to come in the form of a healthy Chavez/Crosby/Ellis/Bradley, and better bench performances from Perez/Melhuse/Johnson (or whoever replaces them).

by andyinfremont on Nov 11, 2006 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Seems pretty spot on
though he leaves out some of of what makes Zito an outlier (the wierd BAA and Op Batting Average from the Curve, and his health record).

But I would NOT rank Gil Meche ahead of anyone. Ted Lilly and Mussina should be behind Zito as well. And Lugo?

But Pettite should be higher.

by Zonis on Nov 10, 2006 3:15 PM PST reply actions  

spot-on, Zonis
Dunno if I'd have Pettite much higher than Z (if at all), mostly due to health, but I wouldn't argue too strongly for that position. Otherwise, agreed across the board.
God I miss old Van Halen, splits and leopard pants -- Blez @('.')@

by monkeyball on Nov 10, 2006 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Meche etc.
I think Zito rated maybe A LITTLE worse than he shouldbe. I wouldn't put Meche ahead of him, but I would put Mussina, Lugo and Pettitte, and even Lilly ahead of him although I'm sure Zito will command way more than all of those guys. Honestly, I'd rate him maybe a spot ahead of Meche. Comparing him to Meche, they are each the same age (28), and last year Meche had more strikeouts gave up fewer walks and fewer bombs. When you consider that Meche has better control and more velocity, I don't think it's ridiculous to say he will be better than Zito going forward. Of course, Zito has had very good BABIPs and it may be possible that that is a repeatable skill for him, and that alone might nudge him ahead of Meche.

by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 3:25 PM PST reply actions  

What if
Zito just didn't get signed by anyone because Boras asked too much for him?   I'd laugh..

by wordfromthewise on Nov 10, 2006 3:38 PM PST reply actions  

he's just trying to be dramatic
Zito's obviously better than Lilly or Meche, and Keith Law knows that.  He's only writing this so he can have a follow-up article that reads, "Wow, look how much that team paid for Zito when they could have gotten Lilly for much less."  Just write to Keith Law after Zito has a better year and remind him of his crappy article.
Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Nov 10, 2006 3:46 PM PST reply actions  

Great post.
"Next thing you know, they'll have me taking an overdose of pills."--Milton Bradley

by jeepers on Nov 11, 2006 12:08 PM PST up reply actions  

#3, 4 and 5s
I would like to see a list of number three, four and five starters to see how Zito stacks up. My guess is that his numbers are better than all of them except one or two. The number four and five spots are revolving doors on a lot of teams. Cut Zito some slack.

The A's have been playoff contenders the last few years with him at number one, with an offense in the back half of the league in most categories batting behind him. As far as I can tell, Zito has been a top twenty pitcher in the American League for the last six years and his numbers have been pretty consistent over the last three years with fewer Ks and more walks than previously (at what looks to me to be about one per game less/more).

I'm having a hard enough time finding glorified reasons to wear my Zito T-shirt now that he won't be in green and gold. This #5 starter dribble is not helping.

by Franklin on Nov 10, 2006 3:53 PM PST reply actions  

for the money ...
I'd rather have Lilly ...

He's a better investment.

In terms of talent, clearly Zito is better.

I don't subscribe to Insider, so I don't know what his criteria was.

by devo on Nov 10, 2006 4:10 PM PST reply actions  

His criteria was readership
He gets paid everytime somebody complains about his article and puts up a link to it.
Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Nov 12, 2006 8:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Like most I agree with Law on this
You can make the argument that he is not a #5, but he clearly is not a #1 either, and someone is going to pay #1 money to him and be disappointed.  
Boros does that, he always suckers teams into paying too much money for players.  Fortunately it is not the A's.

by china bob on Nov 10, 2006 4:18 PM PST reply actions  

boros
yeltsin?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Nov 10, 2006 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

i agree with nick86 and devo
the a's should go after lilly or maybe even meche.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Nov 10, 2006 4:21 PM PST reply actions  

if Lilly can stay healthy
he might be a reasonably priced replacement for Zito. I was reading that Toronto might offer him a Loaiza-type deal (3 years, around $21-5 million total. But this market might overpay for him and nearly every other free agent starting pitcher. I don't see the A's getting into a bidding war for him.

by OaklandSi on Nov 10, 2006 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

re
Everybody knows Keith Law is really smart, but he's really fucking dumb too.  He makes at least one mind-numbingly idiotic observation a column.  He is not spot on here.  Barry Zito has four top 10 ERA finishes in his first six years.  Name one fourth starter who has come close to that.  His lifetime ERA+ is 127.  He's as durable as any starter in baseball.  Gil Meche and Ted Lilly have sub 100 career ERA+.  In fact, Meche has never once been a league average pitcher in a season in which he pitched more than 85 innings.

by 31Boots on Nov 10, 2006 5:18 PM PST reply actions  

I agree with Keith Law
I agree, Zito has a better reputation than he actually pitched. Watching from a far, you marvel at his curve, and his past, but looking closely like we have, he's overated, but he's going to cash in soon.
I Blog: http://www.operationathletics.typepad.com/

by ProfessorOakland on Nov 10, 2006 5:34 PM PST reply actions  

Everyone who's agreeing I'm assuming...
is looking at it purely in the way that Law was right on his view of Zito, and Z probably won't be worth the contract he gets.  Fine.  But saying, money aside, that Meche or Lilly is anywhere near Zito talentwise is plain ridiculous.  Neither has ever pitched 200 innnings in a season.  Lilly is two years older.  

Lilly's best season:

12-10 4.06 ERA 197.3 IP 3.69 DERA(BP's Defence adjuseted ERA)

Meche's best Season:

11-8 4.48 ERA 186.7 IP 4.83 DERA

Zito's Worst Season:

11-11 4.48 ERA 213 IP 4.63 DERA

By the way, DERA is set up so that 4.50 is league average, this was Z's only above 4.50 year.  Career DERA's are 4.47, 4.83 and 3.74 respectively.

by SuperBean on Nov 10, 2006 6:48 PM PST reply actions  

he pitches half of his games
in a pitcher friendly ball park, with a team
that has very good defensive players, that helps him also.

by china bob on Nov 11, 2006 8:25 AM PST up reply actions  

I realize that,
And in theory DERA takes that into account.  Its far from perfect, but the overall difference in thier numbers I think should show without a doubt who the best pitcher has been.

by SuperBean on Nov 11, 2006 9:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Zito
obviously has had the much better career, but you're fooling yourself if you believe '01-'02 Zito in any way resembles'07-'11 Zito. Even from '03-'06, Zito has been a solid #2 guy, but going forward I think he is a 3 or 4 like Law said.

by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 6:55 PM PST reply actions  

Look at his year-by-year DERA though...
3.80, 3.10, 3.65, 4.64, 4.24, 3.70.

Sure, 2004 and 2005 stick out.  But really, 2005 was still a pretty above average year.  2004 is his only poor spot.  And how many pitchers don't have an off year?

I think a lot of this stems from his lack of wins he's put up the last few years(2003-2005, especially).  But 2003 and 2005 he was much better than his record suggested.

Thorw in his unreal health and I think you've got a pretty solid bet.  Much better than a few of those names that were thrown on the list.  Now, will this cause him to be overpaid?  I think so.  I don't really want the A's signing him to some monster contract that leaves them with no one else.  However, he is one of the best free agents on the market, and that is why he is going to be so overpaid.

by SuperBean on Nov 10, 2006 7:06 PM PST up reply actions  

They lost me here:
"In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees"

He pitches what, 4 times a season against these two teams? I'd be willing to bet that a lot of good pitchers struggle against those lineups.

It's a shame that families get torn apart by something as simple as wild dogs. -Jack Handey

by JediLeroy on Nov 10, 2006 7:03 PM PST reply actions  

The only way
The only way this article makes sense is if it is taking into account what it will take to sign the players.  There is no mention of that, so I'll take it as not being a factor.

Anyone who feels that Meche/Lilly are better than Zito should not be writing about Baseball for a living.  Meche has never had a season as good as Zito's worst year.  

Lilly is a good alternative for Zito, but at two years older, never having topped 200 innings (Zito has averaged 223 since 2001, Lilly 171 since 2003), and simply not being quite as good, he cannot be considered better.

by chri5 on Nov 11, 2006 10:42 AM PST reply actions  

Meche should be
ranked higher than Zito.  A lot more bang for your buck, I say.

by fadedash on Nov 11, 2006 11:27 AM PST reply actions  

Isn't it a bit silly to trash Zito
for high walks and inconsistency, and then rate him below Gil Meche? Meche at his average self is Zito at his worst, and Zito at his best is way better than Meche has ever been. C'mon.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 11, 2006 1:42 PM PST reply actions  

I think Law is being unconventional
for the sake of being unconventional.  He's not even being honest about it, given that he's cherry-picking his numbers.
"Next thing you know, they'll have me taking an overdose of pills."--Milton Bradley

by jeepers on Nov 11, 2006 4:09 PM PST reply actions  

O man, Law has seen what only Beane could...
He has seen that Zito will never regain Cy Young form and he will only go the way of Hudson and Mulder. That is why Beane did not value Zito enough to give him a good deal.
Let's GO OAKLAND!!!

by OaktownRajah on Nov 11, 2006 4:29 PM PST reply actions  

going forward, don't think there's much debate,
zito's a solid #3 starter, .500 record, era around 4, won't get hurt. if you're comfortable with that, bank him.  

by oakath on Nov 11, 2006 6:58 PM PST reply actions  

Too much Boston Yankees at ESPN
I wonder how many of those free agent write-ups contain the words Boston or NY Yankees in them...

Zito at #15? Not based on past performance I would think. I am guessing Law is speculating on the impact they would have on their teams.
Zito will probably end up in Texas since Tom Hicks and Scott Boras seem to get along so well.

by apilgrim on Nov 12, 2006 3:43 AM PST reply actions  

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