Keith Law ranks Zito #15 at best of free agents for '07
Keith Law from ESPN.com writes:
Zito is a third or fourth starter with the reputation of a one or a two. In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees while walking 47 men and allowing 18 homers in 83.3 innings. His control is below-average; only Daniel Cabrera has walked more batters in the last two years than Zito has. And should Zito's stuff slip at all, he becomes a fifth starter or a guy who needs to head to the National League, the current destination for asylum-seekers who fear AL persecution of their fringy fastballs.
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Players that Keith Law ranked higher than Zito include GIL MECHE AT NUMBER 13, Ted Lilly at #12, Mike Mussina at #11, Julio Lugo at #9, & Andy Pettite at #6.
What a joke. Seriously, I subscribe to ESPN Insider to read this garbage??? Gil Meche ranked higher than Zito???? Zito a 3rd, 4th, or even 5th starter at best???? I just can't get over this idiot.
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Lilly over Zito?
by WhiteElephantGuy on Nov 10, 2006 2:55 PM PST reply actions
I like Zito
by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 2:58 PM PST reply actions
Really?
Another Boras candidate I really like and think he could be a good signing became a FA. He would certainly fit in under our injury-plagued, defensively gifted strategy: J.D. Drew. He, along with Bonds, could be great additions of LH bats. Thomas is of course number 1 on my wish list but we need some MAJOR improvements on offense.
No to Drew...
I suspect the improved offense for the A's will have to come in the form of a healthy Chavez/Crosby/Ellis/Bradley, and better bench performances from Perez/Melhuse/Johnson (or whoever replaces them).
by andyinfremont on Nov 11, 2006 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
Seems pretty spot on
But I would NOT rank Gil Meche ahead of anyone. Ted Lilly and Mussina should be behind Zito as well. And Lugo?
But Pettite should be higher.
spot-on, Zonis
Re: Meche etc.
by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 3:25 PM PST reply actions
What if
by wordfromthewise on Nov 10, 2006 3:38 PM PST reply actions
he's just trying to be dramatic
by Alameda Greg on Nov 10, 2006 3:46 PM PST reply actions
#3, 4 and 5s
The A's have been playoff contenders the last few years with him at number one, with an offense in the back half of the league in most categories batting behind him. As far as I can tell, Zito has been a top twenty pitcher in the American League for the last six years and his numbers have been pretty consistent over the last three years with fewer Ks and more walks than previously (at what looks to me to be about one per game less/more).
I'm having a hard enough time finding glorified reasons to wear my Zito T-shirt now that he won't be in green and gold. This #5 starter dribble is not helping.
by Franklin on Nov 10, 2006 3:53 PM PST reply actions
for the money ...
He's a better investment.
In terms of talent, clearly Zito is better.
I don't subscribe to Insider, so I don't know what his criteria was.
His criteria was readership
Like most I agree with Law on this
Boros does that, he always suckers teams into paying too much money for players. Fortunately it is not the A's.
by china bob on Nov 10, 2006 4:18 PM PST reply actions
boros
i agree with nick86 and devo
if Lilly can stay healthy
re
I agree with Keith Law
by ProfessorOakland on Nov 10, 2006 5:34 PM PST reply actions
Everyone who's agreeing I'm assuming...
Lilly's best season:
12-10 4.06 ERA 197.3 IP 3.69 DERA(BP's Defence adjuseted ERA)
Meche's best Season:
11-8 4.48 ERA 186.7 IP 4.83 DERA
Zito's Worst Season:
11-11 4.48 ERA 213 IP 4.63 DERA
By the way, DERA is set up so that 4.50 is league average, this was Z's only above 4.50 year. Career DERA's are 4.47, 4.83 and 3.74 respectively.
he pitches half of his games
that has very good defensive players, that helps him also.
by china bob on Nov 11, 2006 8:25 AM PST up reply actions
I realize that,
Zito
by Nick86 on Nov 10, 2006 6:55 PM PST reply actions
Look at his year-by-year DERA though...
Sure, 2004 and 2005 stick out. But really, 2005 was still a pretty above average year. 2004 is his only poor spot. And how many pitchers don't have an off year?
I think a lot of this stems from his lack of wins he's put up the last few years(2003-2005, especially). But 2003 and 2005 he was much better than his record suggested.
Thorw in his unreal health and I think you've got a pretty solid bet. Much better than a few of those names that were thrown on the list. Now, will this cause him to be overpaid? I think so. I don't really want the A's signing him to some monster contract that leaves them with no one else. However, he is one of the best free agents on the market, and that is why he is going to be so overpaid.
They lost me here:
He pitches what, 4 times a season against these two teams? I'd be willing to bet that a lot of good pitchers struggle against those lineups.
The only way
Anyone who feels that Meche/Lilly are better than Zito should not be writing about Baseball for a living. Meche has never had a season as good as Zito's worst year.
Lilly is a good alternative for Zito, but at two years older, never having topped 200 innings (Zito has averaged 223 since 2001, Lilly 171 since 2003), and simply not being quite as good, he cannot be considered better.
Meche should be
by fadedash on Nov 11, 2006 11:27 AM PST reply actions
Isn't it a bit silly to trash Zito
I think Law is being unconventional
O man, Law has seen what only Beane could...
going forward, don't think there's much debate,
Too much Boston Yankees at ESPN
Zito at #15? Not based on past performance I would think. I am guessing Law is speculating on the impact they would have on their teams.
Zito will probably end up in Texas since Tom Hicks and Scott Boras seem to get along so well.

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