Unpopular Opinion Topic 5 - What Is It About Mark Ellis?
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http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2006/10/29/233035/78
First of all, let me start by saying that I think Mark Ellis is just about the nicest player in the game today; from all accounts, he is a genuine man who never allowed his fame to dictate his lifestyle, nor does his lifestyle put him on the front page of the papers. However, it is exactly these qualities that I feel lends to Mark Ellis' 'player likeability', and sometimes does not allow an objective look at his actual 'player qualities'.
Players that make a splash certainly stand out in our memories. Game-winning homeruns, big hits, and amazing plays will stick with us for a long time, and we will tend to attach these feelings to a player, sometimes ignoring all other statistical evidence. Marco Scutaro is evidence of this phenomenon. One would be hard-pressed to be able to create an iron-clad case for Scutaro being anything but, quite bluntly, a serviceable back-up infielder. He is both a below-average fielder and below-average hitter, but over his years in Oakland, he has managed to come up with several huge hits. Did he manage to get some of his few overall hits at just the right time, or was he lucky enough to be up to bat at a crucial time, or is he one of those players who truly deserves the dubious moniker of 'clutch'? It's certainly debated.
But there is no question in my mind that the majority of AN recognizes Scutaro's deficiencies and although we were thrilled to death with his playoff performance, one series does not a great baseball player make, and sadly, yet accurately, most of us do not believe the team is best served with Marco as an everyday player.
Yet, for as much criticism was thrown Scutaro's way this year, an equal amount of praise (and unicorns) were heaped on Mark Ellis. And why?
I will be the first to go to the mat in backing Ellis for a gold glove at second base. His defense is not Scutaro's. But yet...is that really enough? In a year when the A's severely lacked offensive production, Ellis batted .249 with 11 homeruns, fifty-two RBIs, and an OBP of .319. By contrast, Scutaro's line reads: .266, 5, 41, .350. I had to look up those numbers twice; I couldn't believe that Scutaro had the higher OPS, and I certainly couldn't believe he had both the higher average and slugging percentage. Judging from the climate surrounding these two players (before the post-season), I was sure Marco Scutaro was trailing in large margins in every category.
Mark Ellis had a terrible offensive year; there's not really any other way to spin it, and unlike his much-maligned counterpart, I can't think of a big hit off the top of my head. By contrast, I can rattle off four Scutaro moments within the first second of reflection, while simultaneously believing that his presence in the lineup and on the field hurts the team. Yet Marco Scutaro remains the disposable player to the A's fan base, while Ellis, for some reason, is the reigning golden boy. And let's be honest, we must be basing this on character points, and defense. Fair enough.
But when we talk about what the A's need this off-season; if we're interested in all at improving offensive production, Ellis should grouped right along with Scutaro. Consider our options. Barring a major trade, our shortstop position is a black hole. Our catcher is just about slugging his batting average. Our first baseman is looking to set the strikeout record, and while our third baseman is be the best defensive player I've ever seen, his offensive numbers are average, at best. Color me crazy, but shouldn't someone who plays the infield be able to hit?
I like Mark Ellis. I guess I just don't see 'it'. Can someone explain?
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Marco
" "It was an unbelievable feeling when I heard everybody screaming my name," Scutaro explained. "I said to myself, 'Do not strike out, please. Just make contact.' I made really good contact. I hit a double.
"I think that was the best moment of my career.""
A double. A double is the best moment of his career, because it sealed the game for his team... not because he reached 50 homeruns. He hit a game-sealing double. How can you dispose of a player like that?
by takebart on Oct 31, 2006 9:28 AM PST 0 recs
Let me clarify...
I guess I just don't understand everyone's willingness to get rid of Marco, yet keep Ellis at all costs.
And it has to be the defense...?
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:35 AM PST
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In defense of Scutaro's defense
by kkdaz on
Oct 31, 2006 10:12 AM PST
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I agree with this.
by Salvatore on
Oct 31, 2006 10:54 AM PST
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I agree
I don't think Ellis is a plus .300 hitter but I don't think he regressed to his mean this year, either. I think he is a solid .270-.280 hitter capable of 15 homers a year. With his Gold Glove caliber defense, I will take that anyday.
Going back to Scutaro, this team is simply lost without his ability to fill in anywhere in the infield when needed. He, like the maligned but vastly deserving of a better fate Adam Melhuse, is ready to go at all times. He's even filled in in the outfield when asked. Those are the guys that win the extra games above the pythagorean for you.
by titaniumaardvark on
Oct 31, 2006 4:09 PM PST
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I for one agree with takebart...
I'm one of the few, I guess, that is still very optimistic about Crosby's future with the A's. Assuming he's healthy next year, I think he'll have a fine bounce-back season.
by FoolshGame22 on
Oct 31, 2006 10:09 AM PST
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A bounce-back season for Crosby?
He shatters.
by Nick on
Oct 31, 2006 12:41 PM PST
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Are you suggesting instead
(quick, hide this thread from BCG).
by FreeSeatUpgrade on
Oct 31, 2006 2:02 PM PST
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Re
Let me put it this way, if Scutaro cranked that ball over the fence and named it his best moment, would you still think the same of him?
by regfairfield on
Oct 31, 2006 10:22 AM PST
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he wouldn't name it his best moment
by takebart on
Nov 1, 2006 4:53 PM PST
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The problem with 2nd Base
The only way really to upgrade at 2nd is to trade for Michael Young and stick him back at 2nd where he belongs.
by Zonis on Oct 31, 2006 9:33 AM PST 0 recs
Good point...
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:36 AM PST
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now THIS ...
No two ways about it, Ellis had a Belangeriffic season in '06.
A request for the AN Spork Legion: what do Ellis's defensive stats look like on the various arcance metrics? Might we even be overrating his defense as well?
by monkeyball on Oct 31, 2006 9:39 AM PST 0 recs
monkeyball approved?
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:46 AM PST
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Chris Dial
by devo on
Oct 31, 2006 5:06 PM PST
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On a Solid Offensive Team ...
The question is: Who would be better?
I LOVE Marco Scutaro! He exceeds expectaions all the time. He gets big hits. He's solid.
But, over the course of a season, I don't think Scutaro offers enough of an offensive upgrade over Ellis to justify the downgrade in D.
by Eck on Oct 31, 2006 9:40 AM PST 0 recs
Yep....
That is exactly my point.
Ellis is a GREAT choice on a team with offense, since he does have the D, but on a team like the A's, how many positions can we reasonably sacrifice offense for defense before we suck?
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:45 AM PST
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You keep talking like Ellis is some 220 hitter
by sactownbull on
Oct 31, 2006 9:53 AM PST
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I'm not following that train of thought.
If we're not getting the production we need from our outfield or first basemen, shouldn't upgrades be made there, instead of at one of the few positions where you don't expect much offensively? Because our offensive production from the usual powers is limited, I'd be hesitant to sacrifice defense when we're looking at a lot of 2-1 games.
As far as Ellis goes, personality and small stature aside, he hit .316 a year after coming back from a career-threatening injury. While I don't think he'll do that again, I have no reason to believe that he can't be a solid producer.
by TurnTwo on
Oct 31, 2006 10:02 AM PST
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Well...
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 10:07 AM PST
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Or replacing the outfield.
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 10:08 AM PST
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Where offense is more plentiful
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 10:08 AM PST
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Yep.
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 10:10 AM PST
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Probably not
I don't think Ellis should be viewed as untradeable, since I think Scutaro could be at least a serviceable replacement, if not as good. If Ellis and Street could be turned into that bat, I would listen.
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 10:14 AM PST
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That's exactly what I meant, Jeepers
by TurnTwo on
Oct 31, 2006 10:17 AM PST
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duuuuuuuudddddeeeee....
Man, I miss sunshine acid. I'm glad you have some, because the only way you can say that Swisher and Chavez are going nowhere and need to be replaced is if you are FRYING HARD!
Chavez is one of the best third basemen of all time, behind Mike Schmidt, maybe Pie Traynor, maybe Graig Nettles, and maybe Brooks Robinson.
Remember, friends; Chavez took one for the team this year. He should have sat for a month or so and healed, but the team needed his defense, so he sucked it up and PLAYED HURT... and some of you jackals want to get rid of him? I want to give him a FREAKING MEDAL!
As for Swisher, he's entering his third year. This guy was projected to be a .270 30HR lots of walks, lots of KOs guy. He sure seems to be ahead of that projection to me. I think he has the potential to be a .285 hitter with 40 dingers, if he works a little bit on plate discipline. He's not that bad of a fielder, either. Not great, but way better than Giambi at least.
by K56 on
Oct 31, 2006 1:33 PM PST
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Chavvy and Swish
But Chavvy is another story. The docs wanted to give him shoulder surgery in the off-season, and he refused and preferred to "play through it". Perez was signed to give Chavy some days off. And we know what happened to that plan.
So ole Chavvy needs to go under the knife (or laser, whatever) this off-season or he's going to suck again next year. All this problems with forearms and hamstrings probably come from his refusal to get the operation.
Personally, I'd like to move Swish back to the OF to replace the departing Payton, so I want to find a real first baseman who can hit the off-speed stuff that Dan Johnson can't locate. And I'd like to replace the fraud Crosby, and I'd like to tell Mr. Chavez that he's of no use to A's unless he's healthy.
So that leaves Ellis as the only guy in the infield who doesn't actually suck.
by Mossback on
Oct 31, 2006 1:48 PM PST
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Chavez has said
by day-to-day on
Oct 31, 2006 7:00 PM PST
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You need to read more carefully
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 3:34 PM PST
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Do we really...
Also, I believe Ellis simply had a down year offensively, and will return to his 2005 form in the upcoming season.
by OaklandA23 on
Oct 31, 2006 3:54 PM PST
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The rest of the league isn't going to sit still
Plus, the A's are losing some guys, so yeah, we do need to make some upgrades, especially in the weak-hitting infield. Signing a real shortstop would be a good start.
by Mossback on
Oct 31, 2006 4:07 PM PST
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I understand what you're saying
by OaklandA23 on
Oct 31, 2006 4:27 PM PST
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You're holding your breath
Crosby has never performed worth a damn, and we need Swish in the outfield. So yes, the infield needs work, except for Ellis.
by Mossback on
Oct 31, 2006 4:35 PM PST
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Nope
That's still probably not as clear as it is in my head. :)
by TurnTwo on
Oct 31, 2006 4:38 PM PST
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The jury's still out for me.
His defense is without peer, and I like his compact, yet still powerful swing, and how many pitches he typically sees. I wouldn't turn down a team interested in him via trade, but I'm comfortable with him being back, and think he stands a good chance of being a .280/.360/.450 hitter over the course of a full season.
by jeepers on Oct 31, 2006 9:45 AM PST 0 recs
come on, kids...
Is it not reasonable to expect that a healthy Eric Chavez will hit .285 with 30 dingers, like he always does when he's healthy?
Is it not reasonable to expect that a healthy Mark Ellis will hit .265 with 15 dingers and stellar defense?
Is it not reasonable to expect that a healthy Bobby Crosby will hit .250 with 20 dingers and decent defense?
Is it not reasonable to expect that Marco Scutaro will hit .250 with 5 dingers and decent defense as a 2B/SS backup?
All I'm thinking we need is a utility guy who can play 2B, SS, and something else (3B? OF?)
and give us .230 with 5 dingers and decent defense, because the only thing that is not reasonable to expect is that the entire infield will be healthy at all times. That is unreasonable, and that's why we need two solid backups.
Scutaro is great. Perez can't hit off the bench. Jimenez is gone. Good riddance. Unfortunately, Mike Rouse is gone now. He was my choice for fifth infielder. Maybe BB can pick up somebody. I don't think Kiger's the man. He needs at least a full year in Sacramento first. Melillo's too young too.
by K56 on Oct 31, 2006 9:49 AM PST 0 recs
All good points.
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:58 AM PST
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Mark Ellis with 15 dingers?
by rfloh on
Oct 31, 2006 10:00 AM PST
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I was thinking...
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 10:01 AM PST
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And he didn't start
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 10:02 AM PST
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And why didn't he start until 6 weeks
Yes, he has the power. The problem is that, he, like so many A's players, seem to have issues fulfilling their potential.
by rfloh on
Oct 31, 2006 10:12 AM PST
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Because he was coming off
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 10:15 AM PST
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That's my point
by rfloh on
Oct 31, 2006 12:04 PM PST
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His injury issues look like luck to me.
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 12:59 PM PST
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Indeed
by Mossback on
Oct 31, 2006 1:51 PM PST
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I generally agree
by rfloh on
Oct 31, 2006 9:49 PM PST
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How quickly some of us forget
by sactownbull on Oct 31, 2006 9:49 AM PST 0 recs
True...
But we have to upgrade offense somewhere...the question is...where?
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 9:56 AM PST
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misspelling
Yes, that season was an abbaration.
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 9:59 AM PST
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Heh...and oops.
by baseballgirl on
Oct 31, 2006 10:00 AM PST
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I thought it was the
by green star oakland on
Oct 31, 2006 10:38 AM PST
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no, it was the yuppie wine bars ...
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 10:45 AM PST
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and, of course, this year ...
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 10:45 AM PST
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New cheese-related blogs by SBNation.
by salb918 on
Oct 31, 2006 10:47 AM PST
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Comedy Central SBNation blog
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 11:00 AM PST
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Bad Family Sitcoms SBNation blog
by salb918 on
Oct 31, 2006 11:01 AM PST
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Tasty fruit infused beer blog
by jeepers on
Oct 31, 2006 11:11 AM PST
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Haven't heard of SoCal indi rock band
by salb918 on
Oct 31, 2006 11:14 AM PST
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Manchurian Candidate bit player blog
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 4:15 PM PST
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I truely believe Ellis is a 290-310 hitter
The offense does need an upgrade no doubt. But I believe much of it will come from the existing roster. Besides Ellis I see the following players stepping up.
Chavez- (if healthy) will but up much better numbers
Bradley - Another guy that needs to stay healthy. This is a much bigger if seeing as Bradley has had issues staying healthy throughout his career.
Swisher- Swish should only get better as he gets older. Right now he really doesn't know how to "hit". I think you'll see a big drop in Ks next year along with a 20-30 point rise in his average
Dan Johnson & Bobby Crosby - The two wildcards in the bunch. If just one of them comes through then the A's offense could take a big step forward. I really do think one of these guys will have a good offensive season.
Now even if Frank returns we can't expect him to put up the same type of numbers he did in 2006. And if Payton leaves, he takes his 300 average and 15-20 homeruns with him. I really think we have to resign Payton or at the very least find a guy who can put up those type of numbers. So we do agree the A's are going to need to add a player to move the O forward (if Payton does leave) Where we differ is on Ellis. I just don't think Ellis is a player you have to worry about moving to help your offense. I think he's part of the solution and not part of the problem.
by sactownbull on
Oct 31, 2006 10:32 AM PST
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Ellis's defense
BPro has Ellis at a Rate of 103 and FRAA of 4. Chris Dial has him at RSpt of 7 and Rs /150 of 8. He also looks good if Range Factor, which is a very basic stat is used. His Range Factor is 5.12, league Range Factor is 4.47.
Ellis had an OPS+ of 85 last year, Scutaro 97.
Dial had Scutaro at +4 at 2nd. BPro has Scutaro at a Rate of 100 at 2nd and FRAA of 0. Scutaro's Range Factor was 4.49
I certainly do not want Marco Scutaro to be traded. Not unless Beane gets something good in return.
by rfloh on Oct 31, 2006 9:54 AM PST 0 recs
you don't see "it" because ...
by monkeyball on Oct 31, 2006 10:11 AM PST 0 recs
This one isn't difficult
Ellis has a career .746 OPS (by year: .753, .684, .861, .704) to Scutaro's .704 (by year: .690, .701, .747). Their bad years are about the same, but Ellis has that one excellent year mixed in as well. The only argument in favor of Scutaro here would be that his last year was better, and that his numbers have been going up. But trying to read trends like that into a couple years of data is exactly the kind of mistake that smart GMs avoid. Ellis is almost two years younger and has better career numbers, and is pretty clearly the better bet going forward.
In short, Ellis is certainly no superstar (and isn't going to become one) but even in one of his bad offensive years his defense makes him a solid contributor to a contending team. Sure, I'd love to have Brian Roberts or Chase Utley, but this is not a position we need to worry about.
by andeux on Oct 31, 2006 10:15 AM PST 0 recs
my argument above yours was more concise
by monkeyball on
Oct 31, 2006 10:26 AM PST
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And just so we're clear...
by baseballgirl on Oct 31, 2006 10:27 AM PST 0 recs
A big reason why is his 368 average in 2002 ALDS
by sactownbull on
Oct 31, 2006 10:40 AM PST
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another reason why...
Chavez is the old man ('98)
I think Ellis is the second longest tenured, going into his 5th year in Oakland (6 years if you count his year off)
We've been rooting for him for a long time. Why stop now?
by K56 on
Oct 31, 2006 1:43 PM PST
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The subtext is the next diary
So the real question becomes how are we going to upgrade the offensive output of our outfield and/or first base?
At first glance you would guess that we've got to keep Swish and Bradley but all others would be disposable - which is why your next unpopular opinion diary could be "Why the A's need to get rid of Kots and/or JayPay".
Adding a slugging 1st baseman would be a huge boost for this club if Swish is in the outfield.
by As Exile in Atlanta on Oct 31, 2006 10:32 AM PST 0 recs
re
Ellis is the superior player regardless. His track record of offense and defense far surpasses Scoot's. Period. Even in 2006, Sc



