Payroll Analysis & Roster Predictions For The 2007 A's.

A healthy Harden or Chavez and a rejuvenated and healthy Crosby would much, much more than make up for the loss of Zito and Payton.

That said, a Harden or Kotsay injury would hurt that much more ...

Expect BB to wheel and deal in hopes of improving the team's depth.

Checking the numbers, I didn't include that, and I also didn't include the one million we sent to Pittsburgh as part of the Kendall deal. I also didn't include the rest of the 40-man roster, which typically tops out at about $50K, meaning 15 more guys is about $750K, so if you want to include that, there's the $66M.

Given this, there's probably room to sign Thomas. And like you, I think it's a move that has to be made, even given that his health is still a major risk. Going in to 2006 the plan may have been "1 year of Thomas, and then give the job to Barton," but with Barton having lost most of the year to injury we don't have anyone ready to contribute with the bat.

Wolff seems like a pretty calculating guy. When he announced that he wanted to re-sign Thomas, I have to assume that either he intended to do so, or at least intended to make it look like there was a real effort to sign Thomas. It'd look too bad if he didn't. I assume that's why the basics of the contract he offered were leaked. $12-16M over 2 years is definitely a serious offer. And really, how many teams that are actual contenders have a real need for a DH? Taking Wolff's announcement at face value and assuming they do intend to re-sign Thomas, I don't see how he can avoid providing the payroll to do so. Stadium issues aside, Wolff's group bought the A's for more than twice what the Schott/Hoffman group paid for it in 1995. Clearly the franchise makes money, and clearly a LCS appearance is going to help make more money.

I'd expect slight increases for Street, Swisher, and maybe Blanton, who are all in their third year. Beane has usually given his good young players three- or four-year contracts at that point, giving them a little bonus now in return for cost certainty down the road, and I would expect him to keep doing the same. That will probably add 1 or 2 million total to the 2007 payroll.

This seemed likely to me, but I couldn't figure out how to integrate it into the math. While I'm sure he'll do it with Swisher and Blanton, I'm less certain about Street. I think Beane doesn't value relievers as highly, and I think neither do MLB arbitrators. From what I've seen of relievers, their arb deals tend not to be nearly as high as those of starters. Maybe Beane doesn't see the point in signing Street through his arb years if his arb years aren't going to be that expensive. And whether any such deals for Swisher or Blanton are going to add much at all to this year, I don't know.

Another potential hole to be filled is shortstop. Unlike many here, I still think Crosby can be a very good player if he's ever healthy. Unfortunately back problems sometimes never go away, and (also unlike many here) I don't believe that Scutaro is a real solution for a team that hopes to contend. The A's need to try to figure out what they can expect from Crosby, and plan accordingly.

One of my sillier fantasies involved the Yankees freaking out and shipping A-Rod out while paying 3/4 of their portion of the salary and us moving him back to shortstop. I think Crosby's back healing is probably almost as likely (Kidding, folks.) At the moment, I just don't see a real option. We don't have anyone in our farm system ready to play either shortstop or second (if Ellis were moved back to short), and middle infielders with decent gloves and bats aren't that common a commodity. I'm not Marco Scutaro's biggest fan, but there's no cheap options out there that are any better than him.

There might just be room to keep Payton (at around $6 million), at Kielty's expense. Is it worth it? Probably not, but Beane might feel otherwise.

You really see him spending $6M on a guy who hasn't ever exceed a .336 OBP when not playing in pre-humidor Coors Field?

Not possible. No one will want him without us taking a chunk of the salary. And at this point we don't have a catcher in the system capable of holding down the job. Take heart in the fact that Kendall's hitting improved over 2005. He probably won't go back to his .300/.400/.400 days, but a singles hitter with a .367 OBP and adequate speed at the leadoff spot isn't the worst thing in the world.

Bobby Crosby: $2.5M
  consider moving him to CF, easier on back? could back up SS

We don't have enough center fielders with bad backs?

Mark Kotsay: $8.03M  
  trade if possible

Somewhat doubtful. At least not unless he hits .314 again. In any case I think a good CF is a pretty useful thing to have in the Coliseum

Rich Harden: $2M
  keeper for now, unless we can get ARod for him and Chavez

If there's one thing I think this year has taught us, it's that A-Rod is no substitute for pitching.

Nick Swisher: $350K
  keeper, but put him in the outfield, and bench him after every game he strikes out with runners on base and less than two outs.

So basically you want him to be the 4th OF? Kidding. I'm pretty sure I remember reading some stuff the BPro guys did showing that strikeouts aren't any worse than any other kind of out. It might have been in the book about the '04 Red Sox talking about Mark Bellhorn. In any case, I can't see how we could be anything but pleased with his progress this last year. He's striking out more, but he's also walking more and hitting more homers. How can people be seriously contemplating spending $10M on Adam Dunn when we already have Adam Dunn-with-a-funny-dance?

Antonio Perez: $350K
  keeper, but he obviously has to be used differently

As what, though? I don't trust his bat or his glove to be an everyday player, and it's apparent that the utility spot doesn't work for him. I really wonder if that '05 season wasn't a bit of a fluke. Remember, it was with the Dodgers. There were some good pitchers in the NL West that year, but there were a lot more bad ones.

Joe Blanton: $350K
  sign him to an extension

Seems likely.

Huston Street: $350K
  ditto

Maybe less likely.

Chad Gaudin: $350K
  keeper, try as a starter

But he HAS to get that walk rate down. Zito is proof that good enough stuff can overcome a certain amount of walks, but Gaudin's walk rate was insane this year.

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
Milton Bradley: $4.75M.
  Total keeper, extension if possible for slightly less, (I'd love 5 years at $3 million/year each)

WAY too optimistic on pricing there. A guy who can hit like he does and play either a decent CF or an excellent corner OF spot is going to go for more than twice that, even with Bradley's baggage.

Joe Kennedy:. $3.2M
  too much for his production

Had a heck of a good year, but yeah, I can agree with that. I'm also wondering if I might not be overestimating this one.

Bobby Kielty: $2.85M
  I think Bobby Kielty is WAY OVERPAID. We must have someone in the minors who hits left handed pitchers, or else Jose Cruz, Jr brings better defense.

We might have someone in the minors who hits LHP, but to the tune of a .965 OPS? I don't think so. And by no means does Cruz' glove make up for his hitting.

Kiko Calero: $1.5M
  keeper, and extend him for three years or so,but we need to use him less games for longer stretches, ideally 60 important one inning appearances per year

I'm not really concerned with the length of his appearances. Obviously I don't want him overworked, and it seems likely by his usage patterns that he's treated a little more gingerly than the younger pitchers, but so long as our best pitchers are working the innings that matter (tie games and one-run leads, NOT three-run leads just because they're called "save situations"), I'm all for it.

Justin Duchscherer: $1M,
  TOTAL KEEPER, and extend for longer and then try as a starter

I just wonder if he might not be a pitcher who has too much value as a reliever to try starting. (Then again, the upside...I wonder if Theo Epstein is going through the same thing with Papelbon?)

Hiram Bocachica: $550K, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were let go or traded for someone else no one wants.
  what does he bring to our bench that 2 buck chuck doesn't? for slightly less money

A funny name? Really, with Zito moving on, I think it's important to keep up the funny-name quotient. Milton Bradley, Justin Duchscherer, Huston Street, Nick Swisher and Kiko Calero can't do it alone!

Kirk Saarloos: $1.2M
  keeper, sign him to an extension 3 years @1 mil/year, total bullpen groundball, 6th starter luxury
Marco Scutaro: $750K
  keeper, as i've said before, try for a four or five year deal at $500K/year he's worth that.

There's no way you'll get someone to sign an extension with a per-year average of less than they'll make in their first year of arbitration. I'd say signing Saarloos for three years would cost $6-8M. Scutaro for his arb-years probably $4-5M. And given that both of these guys are basically insurance policies to begin with, I don't see why they need to be locked up long-term.

The basic premise I use is that if we lock up younger, marginal talent at below marginal talent prices they will always have extra value as trade bait. When they develop into average or above average talent, we dominate.

Marginal talent is just that. If we had tried to trade Perez or Scutaro at the deadline, we would have gotten bupkis. Saarloos might have fetched something for a team that needed someone for the rotation but given he was in OUR rotation at the time, we didn't have that option.

Except that I'm absolutely certain that that is NOT what is going to happen. I touched on this in the last paragraph of the original post, but I should probably state my expectations more clearly.

My original post predicts no major changes because it's a high-percentage shot. It's likely Kotsay will be the starting center fielder. It's likely we'll re-sign Thomas and Bradley. It's likely the 5th starter will be someone currently in the A's organization. It's highly likely Kendall will be the starting catcher. It's likely we'll be counting on the infielders to have a better and healthier 2007 than 2006.

And it's likely that at least one of those likely outcomes will not, in fact, take place. I don't know which one, but I'm convinced nonetheless. Billy Beane knows more about this than I do. He will see something that can be done that I don't see, and he will do it.

Was he a Super Two last year? If not, it's actually '09.

Ron Flores $327,000 Under 2 years Racked up frequent flier miles

I'm pretty sure that we ship the River Cats in and out by bus, not plane.

Kirk Saarloos $354,000 Salary arbitration Swingman would prefer to start

Maybe someone would take him as a 'major league starter' in trade? I'd rather trade him than Blanton.

Adam Melhuse $700,000 Salary arbitration Mired on bench a second year

I suppose they're talking about Kendall's infrequent days off, but really he's been a bench-warmer for four years now. Five if you count his 2001 season with Colorado.

Dan Johnson $330,000 Under 2 years Is he a major leaguer?

Compared to who, soon-to-be World Series champ Neifi Perez? Sure.

Bobby Kielty $1,875,000 Salary arbitration Getting pricy for a backup

Not that pricey for a platoon player who hits his side of the platoon for better than a .900 OPS, even if it is the short side.

Jay Payton $4 million Free agent Most interesting free-agent decision

As in, it's going to be interesting to see what he says in the media once it's apparent that Oakland's front office hasn't been taking his calls?