Station to Station: Looking Ahead to 06!!!

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Sep 30, 2005 9:52 AM PDT

Looking ahead to 06, the first thing that has me excited is the fact that spring training and the World Baseball Classic are going to be played in Phoenix.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/wbc/faq.jsp

This is one of my favorite parts of the FAQ

Q: Will Teams play exhibition games?
A: Teams participating in the Round 1 pool in Asia will likely play exhibition games in the days leading up to the tournament. Similarly, teams participating in the other Round 1 pools (located in the U.S. and Latin America) will likely play exhibition games against MLB teams at spring training venues in the U.S. in the days leading up to the tournament. It is also anticipated that the two qualifying teams from the Round 1 pool in Asia will play exhibition games against MLB teams at spring training venues in the days leading up to the second round of games.

This means that Barton, Ethier, Putnam, Suzuki, T-Buck, Money-Penney and Herrera will get a chance to face some great pitching, even some of thier own!!! With Canada playng in the Scottsdale bracket Harden could face his A's team!!!

Man, I want it to be February already!!!

On the Macha front:

I really hope for my own sanity that he does not return.

His return is a lose-lose in my book.

If he is invited back then it means that this feeble management was all Billy's doing and that the team is happy that they won 40 of 50 games at one point and that they didn't see how the crown was for the taking this year and just rested on thier laurels.

I expect more from them than that, BUT, Billy's statements about how Hudson and Mulder were traded because the team could not beat the Red Sox the way they were woud be some proof of his lack of gonads if Macha is kept. So, please, I hope that Macha is let go and that Billy is just posturing for Ken to get a job elsewhere.

MMMM...Grass...MMMM...Gummmmm....MMMM....Dairy Farms...MMMM....Pittsburgh...

State of the A's?

I love this team JUST the way they are.

I would like to see a power bat DH or OF that would allow DJ, Swish and said DH to rotate around the field on any given day.

Payton is a keeper according to Beane, who said in the Trib the other day that if he did not get Jay Pay this season he would have spent the whole offseason looking for a Jay Pay.

The pitchers are fine, stacked really. I do not see Zito being dealt away this offseason UNLESS it is a "Too Good to be True" deal that lands us an A Jones or Crawford/Huff combo.

Dotel and Durazo are HUGE question marks that can make us contenders again next year by just returning.

The dead weight would be Ginter/Hatte/Yabu. If they were replaced by Boca/Durazo/Dotel that would be a big enough upgrade right there.

Kennedy and Witasick have some value so we'll have to see what happens with them and Cruz is still a dark horse for a starting spot next year.

As far as the minor leaguers who can/will make an impact next year, I think it is only one or two. Barton and Ethier have shots at cracking this team by June/July of next year at the soonest.

I would have to give this season a B as an overall grade and I'll take that.

So, here is to next year and one heckuva ride into the playoffs in 06...

-Raymond

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Awesome season

Highlights for me:

My first time in the left-field bleachers since I was 6 years old -- too bad it was the Yankees game Harden went down, but we did get to laugh at a fat, tattooed Yankees fan who infiltrated the bleachers!

40 of 50!

Kendall's 2 game-enders: sulk-off and face-first-dive-off

Arguing the value of Eric Byrnes, the starting rotation, batting order, butts, etc. with the nation

Thanks for such a fun season!

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Sep 30, 2005 10:15 AM PDT reply actions

Excellent post as always Saint

I agree with everything you say. The only two things that worry me is that BB keeps Macha, and then what you say is true. I am not as enamored with Payton as much as BB. His K to walk ratio is bad, and since his power surge in August was not matched in Sept. I wonder if he is really an everyday player. It seems the pitchers have figured him out, a free swinger who tries to pull everything, and is duck soup to a curve ball. God, how we need a DH, preferably a righthanded DH with power. The A's lost 16 of the last 22 at home. That is so uncharacteristic of former A's teams. We were always a good home team, what happened? 12 of those games we scored 2 or less runs. I have no idea how many HR's we hit in those games but I suspect very few. I think the A's got it in their head that you can't hit HR's here unless you swing real hard and pull the ball. Thus we got a lot of 5-4-3 DP's or 4-5-3 DP's. It doesn't appear to me that aside from Ellis and occasionally Kendall no other player is hitting to the opposite field. We have a lot of pull hitters with no power, a sure sign of futility.

by china bob on Sep 30, 2005 10:19 AM PDT reply actions

mostly agreed, but ...

... I have to say you're flat-wrong about one aspect of Payton's game: he most assuredly does not try to pull "everything." Since his arrival, he's been the best A's hitter at hitting line-drive smashes up the middle on pitches middle-to-away.

As for Payton's other weaknesses, no argument from me on what you've identified. I still think it'd be worthwhile to keep him next year, but I appreciate the arguments against doing so.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions

My bad

The fact is I just got back here, and saw only a few games and assumed that what I was seeing now has been going on, but if you say Payton has hit a lot of balls up the middle and is not pulling everything I defer to you on that.

by china bob on Sep 30, 2005 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Dotel/Durazo

I for one don't have much hope for either. I see them both as potentially relatively low cost -- but also high potential risk and low potential return.

Also, isn't Durazo basically out until June as of latest projections? I don't see the value in giving him a contract for the first half of '06.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 10:32 AM PDT reply actions

In Durazo/Dotel's defense:

He was arguably the best set-up man in baseball for his tenure as such with the Astros.

He also pitched with calcium deposits as big as grapes in his elbow.

He is already throwing again and can be devestating again.

Imagine if we had him AND Calero setting up Street!!!

As for Ruby Tuesday, he had one of the best HR per AB splits of anyone in baseball when he was with the D-Backs and posted a 900+ OPS last season for the A's.

A healthy Ruby means a significant differential in runs scored over Hatteberg. And with the pitching that the A's had I wonder how many wins that would have translated to?

Pick up Payton's Option...P...P...P...Please?

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Sep 30, 2005 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Not disputing their past success

Even if Ruby returns to his former levels of productivity (and given that he's strangely fragile enough to have injured his elbow in the way that he did, I'm not confident of that), he most likely won't be back doing baseball-related activities until June, which probably means not ML-ready until July. Good 2nd-half addition? Maybe. Worth paying to rehab for the first half of the season? Open question.

As for Dotel, the track record for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery has been pretty good the last couple years -- but there's no guarantee of that. There's also a good likelihood that the calcium deposits will recur in the reconstructed elbow, making him a significant medium-to-long-term risk as well.

Even with a payroll bump next year and sweetheart lowball deals for D&D, those aren't the types of costs and risks I'd like to see Beane take.

I'd much rather see money spent on a healthy RH bat and on younger, cheaper, healthier bullpen arms.

Plus, it seems to me that both players have been obviated by our current roster makeup: we already have several high-OBP (or potentially high-OBP) LH 1B/DH types and several powerful-but-erratic RH setup arms -- all for likely cheaper than what D or D would sign for.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Durazo

I totally agree about his elbow. Durazo is a guy that has been injured a lot over the course of his career. Hes a DH and he cant even stay healthy. The A's have been lucky that he hasnt gotten hurt more often.

Even if does come back, he still is lacking in the power department that I think the A's really need in the DH spot.

Its time to let alligator arms go.

by pickinmachine on Sep 30, 2005 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Dotel didn't have TJ surgery:

Did he?

If so, the him throwing this week is a miracle?!?!?!

No one on this team had even near a 900 OPS so I'm not sure how Durazo is easily replaceable.

I also don't see any setup guys with sub 1.00 WHIPs that have 1.4 K per nine rates and throw 100 MPH either.

It is easy to forget how good these two were/are.

I do believe that they represent risks, but what do you win if you never take some minimal risks?

Pick up Payton's Option...P...P...P...Please?

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Sep 30, 2005 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions

yes, he did

By all accounts, the surgery was a smashing success, though.

And I will say that many pitchers who have come back the last 5 years from TJS have in fact come back throwing harder than they did pre-surgery. So there definitely is some potential upside to Dotel.

Really, it all depends on how cheaply either or both are willing to sign -- and Beane's or your or my taste for risk vs the cost. You're absolutely right, saint -- you gotta take some risks. But different people have different risk-evaluation schemata.

Myself, I wouldn't be comfortable giving Dotel anything over $500-750K guaranteed (with performance/appearance clauses bumping it up to, say, $1.5-2M). Durazo I wouldn't even sign until at least April, and even then it would probably be in the same range or lower.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions

I like those numbers:

Check this out!!!

Sign Reggie Sanders for his first half performance then trade him when Ruby is ready to come back!!!

I like giving Dotel an incentive laiden contract from hell!!!!

1 mil guarantee, hey we gave yabu one. The have guarantees for vesting options and performance bonuses!!!

Same thing with Ruby. 1 mil guarantee and performance as well as vested options...

Quick!!! get Billy on the line!!! Get him on now before any of the other GMs read this?!!?! ;)

Pick up Payton's Option...P...P...P...Please?

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Sep 30, 2005 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Sanders isn't a half-bad idea

Although, one of these years, Sanders' hitting ability and bat speed will finally just stop. I'd hate to be holding that bag when it does happen.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Sanders isn't half bad...

He's all bad.

Why oh why should we revisit this idea?

by grover on Sep 30, 2005 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions

He'd basically be Payton+

Sanders is certainly well into the downslope of his career -- and yet he keeps banging out 20 HRs with decent SLG and league-average OBP every year with regular playing time. And all that after everyone keeps writing him off as finished year after year.

We definitely wouldn't want both Sanders and Payton -- it'd be a matter of valuing Sanders' better ISO vs Payton's defense.

And, as I said, one of these days Sanders is going to just stop hitting, just as everyone keeps predicting.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Keeps hitting

Keeps aging

Keeps getting hurt

2 of the 3 are certain to continue.

by grover on Sep 30, 2005 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions

It really all depends on cost.

If we can sign both Dotel and Durazo to veteran minimum deals, with lots of incentives, what is there to lose? I'd rather sign Durazo now for cheap, than wait and take the risk he signs elsewhere and comes back healthy and productive.

If we get a fully healed Durazo back in mid-July, it's like adding a player through a trade. He could be the spark we need in the second half next year, and even at $750,000-1,000,000, he'd be a bargain. If he's not healthy, he's not anymore of a waste than Yabu, Ginter, or Hatty was this year.

...it's like an angry mob confronting a deaf-mute who is signing curse words at them.-Monkeyball

by gatling on Sep 30, 2005 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions

true, but ...

... I for one am tired of Beane/Macha wasting money and roster spots on players we can't/won't use.

(Which is the only reason that I'm strongly in favor not re-signing Macha: so that we have some comity between the front office and dugout regarding roster composition and playing time.)

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Ok, but.....

If Dotel is throwing fine now, him replacing Yabu isn't wasting a spot. Durazo on the DL until healthy uses a 40 man spot, but he could keep his spot and someone else could replace Ginter there and no one would care. Except maybe Keith's wife and parents. I think it's a low risk/high reward proposition.

...it's like an angry mob confronting a deaf-mute who is signing curse words at them.-Monkeyball

by gatling on Sep 30, 2005 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

except that ...

Replacing Yabu with Dotel means that we wouldn't have an emergency long man/innings eater for low-stress situations. Yabu actually did get a surprisingly high number of innings this year -- in the sense that we all were surprised when he actually ever was used (and in the sense that I think we all thought in the beginning of the year that he'd have a few emergency starts here and there).

(And I think we'll have to just agree to disagree on Ginter, as I'm in the he-could-be-a-useful-'06-role-player camp.)

But, ultimately, you're right: if the money each will accept is low enough, and if the other 38 spots on the 40-man roster are managed correctly, the risk for each could certainly be minimized.

I don't, however, think that signing either should be a priority at all for Beane -- he shouldn't take time or money away from efforts to acquire other higher-ceiling options.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm curious....

What role do you see Ginter playing? Part time DH? Backup 1B, 3B, LF? I think he was misused by Macha, but with the way Ellis played 2B is his. Scoot stays because he can play all the INF spots and LF. Gint is average or below defensively, but does give the potential for RH pop. I just think $1 million plus is alot for a guy getting sporadic action as a bench player. I am interested in your thoughts for him though.

...it's like an angry mob confronting a deaf-mute who is signing curse words at them.-Monkeyball

by gatling on Sep 30, 2005 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions

what you said

I think that for the potential value he could deliver if used correctly, his salary isn't unreasonable.

I'd rotate him around, giving him quasi-regular time as the RH DH and the primary backup at 3B and 2B. I'd definitely buy him a first baseman's mitt and schedule him for lots of time with Wash (if Wash is still with the A's). I'd also get him some time shagging flies in the outfield. Tell him upfront that we're counting on him to be a kind of super-sub/roamer, and that he'll likely get 350-400 PAs, but in a funky role.

I agree -- Ellis should be our iron-clad starting 2B. But Ellis will need days off to stay fresh.

And Scutaro, as much as I love him and the contribution he's made the last two years, really shouldn't be anything more than a UI -- and his range is so limited that Ginter doesn't represent a huge defensive dropoff.

Chavvy, likewise, should have more days off, in my opinion -- and if his regression vs LH pitchers doesn't improve early on next year, I'd give Ginter strategic weekly spot starts in May-June at 3B.

Then again, I could see dumping Ginter for a cheaper and more utile defensive player -- except that Ginter's trade value is so low right now that I don't see Beane moving him (except in a Zito or Chavez or Kendall trade).

Anyway, this is all part of my obsession with wishing Beane (and whomever his on-field manager is next year, Macha or otherwise) would manage the roster and PT with more creativity and flexibility.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Very interesting....

What about Ginter to open the season at 3B and Chavy at DH? I'm concerned about Chavy's shoulder and how he responds post-surgery. Ginter in the role you suggested is reasonable, and if we get his value up, he could be a trade chip come deadline time next year.

Quick off topic question:

What about a Zito&Chavez to Tampa for Gomes/Cantu/Crawford/Prospect or two deal? Would be get enough in return with the above players? Would it be worth it for us? I'm curious about your thoughts on this Monkeyball, as you think outside the box more than others.

...it's like an angry mob confronting a deaf-mute who is signing curse words at them.-Monkeyball

by gatling on Sep 30, 2005 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Hmmm ...

Excellent point about giving Ginter PT to drive up his trade value. I hadn't even really been thinking about that.

I'm not sure what I think about the Chavez DH idea. Unless his shoulder is really bad, he should be at 3B as much as possible, b/c the defensive dropoff from Chavvy to anyone else we have is so big. And I'd probably rather give him a "real" day off than have Ginter at 3B and Chavvy DH. But I dunno. That might be a good option.

I'm not opposed to trading Zito and Chavez -- but for both in the same deal, I want to be getting ManRam or A-Rod or Pujols in return.

The best conkers to play with are uncracked, firm and symmetrical. Make a hole through the middle of of your chosen conker.

by monkeyball on Sep 30, 2005 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree with you on this

I am just not sure how it works out with guys on the DL and potentially free agents, anyone can bid for them I assume, although I doubt there will be a big market for Durazo I expect a lot of teams might jump on Dotel.

by china bob on Sep 30, 2005 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Devil's Advocate

I'm not a huge Macha supporter and I'm not really sure I want him back as manager. I think the complaints about his bullpen usage are over-blown (I remember one game in May when people were screaming at Macha for not bringing in a relief pitcher... only to find out the next day that the guy everyone wanted was hurt and not available) but agree he should use his bench guys more.

But the thing which killed the A's this year were injuries to Harden and Crosby. Take two All-Star like talents away from any line-up not named Yankees and the manager isn't going to look that good. But the A's traded two Aces and lost two key players to injury and still contended for the AL West pennant! Macha deserves some credit for that.

What the A's have accomplished this year is amazing. Macha was the manager. These are facts. It's assumption that there is a better man for the job.

by grover on Sep 30, 2005 10:33 AM PDT reply actions

Thanks Saint

loved your enthusiasm and energy you bring to the games and AN this year.

The WBC tournament semis and finals are gonna be at Petco this year. I think I might have to check it out if tickets arent to expensive.

As far as Macha, eh it is what it is. No manager is perferct but Macha is far from being terrible. Sure Id like to see him get a little more fired up at times, but when I think about it, I dont want a lunatic like Larry Bowa out there either. As long as Beane is steering the ship, I dont really care who his first mate is.

2006 I will have a lot more expectations which will make things a LOT harder if they dont fulfill them. Looking back on 2005, how can it be anything other than fun and exciting, with the emergence of our new ace staff and up and coming rookies.

by pickinmachine on Sep 30, 2005 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

Be Warned!!

If Dotel is still on this team in April, I WILL CRACK!! If they get rid of Hatty and leave Durazzo AND Dotel, I may loose my mind!! So this is just a warning for the Rant I may be doing in April! Thanks!

"We play our best ball when we're goofing around and having a good time" ~Bobby Crosby

by BobbyCrosbysGirl on Sep 30, 2005 12:31 PM PDT reply actions

One thing that is almost

certainly guaranteed is that Beane will pull something off that none of us can predict.

by AlBowe on Sep 30, 2005 12:31 PM PDT reply actions

i second that

we can predict all we want no matter how fun it is, then he will just pull it out of all our asses. And once i think about it, i'll know he did the right thing.

"I dont know what I'm yelling about!Loud Noises!" "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Sep 30, 2005 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions