An Analysis: Ricardo Rincon
by Inquisitor on Jul 6, 2005 7:30 PM PDT
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PrintI've been tired of the Rincon bashing since, oh, 2003. It seems like the vast majority of fans believe that good relievers are a dime a dozen, and that someone better than Rincon can be obtained easily in the minors, or on some scrap heap somewhere. Let's ignore the fact that if it was that easy, we'd have replaced Rincon already. Or that we've had plenty of young pitchers come up through our system (and have since moved on to other teams) that have yet to even come close to Rincon's performance. Or that if Rincon really was worthless and didn't do his job, we could've traded him to plenty of other teams and gotten something in return, since capable left-handed relievers fetch a good price on the market, particularly this season.
I'm going to ignore all that. I'm just going to do what someone should have done a long time ago, and that's show you, game by game, how Rincon has fared thus far this season. All "poor" outings (where he gives up a run or allows an inherited runner to score, or leaves a mess for someone else to clean up) are marked with a '^'.
1) 4/06 @ Baltimore
Rincon comes in to replace Kirk Saarloos at the beginning of the inning, the bottom of the 7th.
Rafael Palmiero flies out to left.
Javy Lopez grounds out to third.
Gibbons reaches on an infield single.
Bigbie flies out to left.
2) 4/07 @ Baltimore
Rincon comes in to relieve Danny Haren at the start of the 7th.
Gibbons pops out.
Roberts flies out.
Newhan flies out to center.
3) 4/08 @ Tampa Bay^
Ricon replaces Justin Duchscherer in the 8th inning to face Aubrey Huff, after Duchscherer allows Crawford to reach, steal second, and then reach third on a sacrifice.
Rincon promptly hits Huff with a pitch.
He's pulled for Juan Cruz.
4) 4/15 vs. Anaheim
Rincon replaces Juan Cruz in the 9th, after Cruz gets the first out, then allows a home run, a single, and a walk in short order. Runners on first and third.
Darin Erstad flies out.
Rincon is replaced with Huston Street.
5) 4/17 vs. Anaheim^
Rincon replaces Kirk Saarloos in the top of the 6th, after Saarloos allows a walk and a single.
Garret Anderson hits a home run.
Steve Finley flies out.
Street is brought in to face Orlando Cabrera.
6) 4/19 @ Texas
Relieves Blanton in the bottom of the 7th, with runners on first and third.
Hank Blalock flies out to end the inning.
7) 4/21 @ Seattle
Comes in at the start of the 8th, to relieve Harden.
Wilson Valdez grounds out.
Ichiro Suzuki grounds out.
Jeremy Reed singles.
Rincon is replaced with Justin Duchscherer.
8) 4/22 @ Anaheim
Rincon is called in to replace Kirk Saarloos at the bottom of the 6th, after Vladimir Guerrero doubles in Chone Figgins. Runner on second.
Finley is safe on a fielder's choice. Guerrero out at third.
IBB to Orlando Cabrera.
Dallas McPherson strikes out swinging.
9) 4/26 vs. CWS^
Replaces Rich Harden at the top of the 6th, with runners on first and second.
Podsednik singles, allowing Uribe to score.
Keiichi Yabu replaces Rincon.
10) 4/27 vs. CWS
Starts the top of the 8th.
Podsednik flies out.
Harris singles.
Carl "I don't believe in dinosaurs" Everett grounds Harris out at 2nd.
Rincon is pulled for Duchscherer.
11) 4/29 vs. Seattle^
Starts the top of the 8th.
Boone homers.
Ibanez flies out.
Winn flies out.
Street is called in.
12) 4/30 vs. Seattle
Replaces Street with runners on first and second.
Ibanez strikes out swinging to end the inning.
13) 5/04 vs. Texas^
Relieves Keiichi Yabu, with runners on first and third.
Delluci flies out.
Michael Young grounds out.
Texiera singles.
Blalock pops out.
Replaced by Street.
14) 5/06 @ NYY
Comes in to start the bottom of the 10th.
Tino Martinez walks.
Cano grounds Martinez out, but reaches first.
Pulled for Kiko Calero.
15) 5/08 @ NYY
Called in to replace Calero at the top of the 8th.
Giambi strikes out swinging.
Cano grounds out.
Replaced with Yabu.
16) 5/09 @ Boston
Replaces Justin Duchscherer at the bottom of the 7th, with runners on first and second.
Damon pops out.
Nixon strikes out swinging to end the inning.
17) 5/10 @ Boston
Relieves Huston Street in the bottom of the 8th, with one out.
Damon walks.
Jay Payton grounds into a double play to end the inning.
18) 5/13 vs. NYY
Relieves Yabu, who leaves with the bases loaded and only one out (on a sacrifice bunt).
Hideki Matsui hits a sacrifice fly to score a run.
Replaced with Juan Cruz.
19) 5/14 vs. NYY
Starts the top of the 7th.
Matsui hits a double.
Alex Rodriguez grounds out.
Martinez lines out softly.
Jorge Posada grounds out to end the inning.
20) 5/15 vs. NYY^
Rincon starts the top of the 7th.
Matsui flies out.
Rodriguez walks.
Martinez pops out, Rodriguez advances to second.
IBB to Posada.
Giambi doubles, scoring Rodriguez.
Cano singles, scoring Posada.
Pulled for Street.
21) 5/17 vs. Boston^
Replaces Juan Cruz, who leaves with the bases loaded and no outs.
Bellhorn strikes out swinging.
Runners advance on a fielding error by Hatteberg, one run scores, runners on second and third.
Replaced with Street.
22) 5/21 vs. San Francisco
Rincon relieves Haren in the bottom of the 7th, with runners on first and second and one out.
Durham grounds into a double play to end the inning.
23) 5/24 @ Tampa Bay
Relieves Saarloos in the bottom of the 7th, with runners on second and third, two outs.
Travis Lee grounds out to end the inning.
24) 5/28 @ Cleveland
Rincon replaces Cruz in the bottom of the 6th, bases loaded, only one out.
Sizemore grounds into a double play, ending the inning.
[Starts 7th.]
Blake strikes out swinging.
Hafner grounds out.
Broussard flies out to end the inning.
25) 5/30 vs. Tampa Bay
Relieves Duchscherer at the top of the 9th, two outs, runner on first.
Crawford singles.
Lugo grounds out to end the inning.
[Starts the 10th.]
Huff strikes out swinging.
Lee singles.
Pulled for Street.
26) 6/02 vs. Toronto
Replaces Saarloos at the top of the 6th, two outs, runner on third.
Orlando Hudson strikes out swinging to end the inning.
27) 6/04 vs. Toronto
Starts the top of the 8th.
Rios strikes out swinging.
McDonald singles.
Hudson grounds into a fielder's choice. Runner on first.
Relieved by Street.
28) 6/08 @ Washington^
Relieves Yabu in the bottom of the 8th. Runners on first and second, two outs.
Runners advance on a wild pitch.
Adams walks.
Pulled for Glynn.
29) 6/10 @ Atlanta^
Replaces Calero in the bottom of the 8th. Two outs, runner on first.
Langerhans singles.
Replaced with Street.
30) 6/16 vs. NYM
Starts top of the 8th.
Matsui strikes out swinging.
Reyes grounds out.
Wright flies out to end the inning.
31) 6/18 vs. Philadelphia
Relieves Saarloos at the top of the 7th, runner on second, one out.
Rollins grounds out.
Lofton fouls out to end the inning.
[Starts the 8th]
Abreu grounds out.
Burrell lines out to Rincon.
Thome strikes out swinging to end the inning.
[Starts 9th]
Utley strikes out swinging.
Replaced with Duchscherer.
32) 6/21 @ Seattle^
Relieves Yabu in the bottom of the 8th. No runners on, one out.
Ichiro singles.
Winn singles.
Pulled for Duchscherer.
33) 6/22 @ Seattle
Relieves Calero at the top of the 9th, runner on first with no outs.
Ibanez singles.
Boone sacrifices, runners advance to second and third.
Reed strikes out swinging.
Relieved by Duchscherer.
34) 6/30 vs. Seattle
Starts the top of the 7th.
Boone walks.
Reed pops out.
Duchscherer called in.
35) 7/02 vs. CWS
Starts the top of the 8th.
Podsednik bunts out.
Harris strikes out swinging.
Duchscherer comes in.
36) 7/05 @ Toronto^
Starts the bottom of the 7th.
Hudson homers.
Adams grounds out.
Pulled for Calero.
37) 7/06 @ Toronto^
Relieves Yabu at the bottom of the 8th, two outs, runners on first and second.
Runners advance on a wild pitch.
Adams walks.
Pulled for Glynn.
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For what it's worth
It is worth something...
I think Ricardo Rincon is the pitching staff's Eric Byrnes for his streakiness. There will be a time this month where he will be lights out. For now, we've just got to wait for it.
But Rincon's good streaks tend to outnumber his bad, and for any baseball player, that's a good thing.
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Jul 7, 2005 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
wow
I don't know if this is unrealistic, though, to expect him to do better than 2 out of 3. Would we feel good if Blanton gave us 2 good starts out of every three? That sounds like a number 4 or 5 starter. If a reliever blew 1 out of 3 saves, I think people would feel bad about that.
I know we can't all have Gagne 04 on our team, but aren't there relievers out there who get it done more than 2 out of 3 times?
The converse is, if we had a hitter who came through one out of every three 'clutch' situations, that would be pretty good!
Agreed
This is something that always irritated me. If you think about it, a reliever is only valuable if they have an ERA below 3, or even 2. If a starter has a 3.00 ERA, that's very good, meaning he gives up 3 runs every complete game. If a reliever who pitches, say, one inning each outing, has a 3.00 ERA, this means he's giving up one run every 3 outings. And if these outings are in close situations, this could mean he's blowing it 1 out of 3 times. This doesn't seem good to me. Only guys like Duke and Street on our team are giving us truly valuable relief work.
Very interesting
Like diving for a ball that gets by him for three runs instead of taking it on the short hop and keeping the impact to one.
Like the error he made in the game lost in Seattle that was improperly blamed only on Crosby's error?
etc. etc.
by dingerpower on Jul 6, 2005 8:43 PM PDT reply actions
I wish Bradford was here.
Rincon would make a lot of people feel better if Bradford was pitching for the A's.
Rincon comes in, gets one lefty out, walks the next...Bradford comes in to face a righty, gets the dp.
Rincon is doing well. Hopefully, the next time out on the mound he'll get his batter out...and an angel will get it's wings, and everyone will rejoice in that out.
<sigh> I miss Bradford.
Interesting...
This is one of those times when...
That does not stop me from panicking every single time that man takes the mound.
Why? Because he is a 'nibbler' pitcher. Check the counts of every batter he pitches to. He rarely comes in throwing strikes right away, and the number one way as a reliever to make your fans panic is to nibble around hitters.
Rincon does NOT inspire confidence, 2/3 sucess rate notwithstanding. It's the same reaction I had the last two years when people would tell me how 'good' Mecir was.
The numbers may have been there, but it seemed like Mecir never backed his own numbers up. I feel that same way about Rincon.
An old quote from jmoney sums it up best: "He's one of those guys that his stats make him look better than he is."
I agree. For me, there is no one who makes me want to crawl under a couch and hide for the rest of an inning in a tight game than when he is announced. Especially in a one-run game.
So you were
I felt better than Rincon!
In Toronto, however, he couldn't have pitched worse.
Plus, Glynn is used in losses or ties...
I don't agree his stats are great
I found a up-to-date list of relievers as ranked by pretty complicated criteria, which I believe boils down to how much the reliever affects your win expectancy, scaled by some 'leverage' factor.
Anyway, I ran the list through a spreadsheet and threw out all relievers who had fewer than 10 appearances. Our relievers ranked as follows:
29 Justin Duchscherer 1.525
60 Huston Street 0.812
85 Kiko Calero 0.484
97 Ricardo Rincon 0.379
107 Keichi Yabu 0.308
149 Octavio Dotel 0.003
192 Juan Cruz -0.351
There were 223 pitchers. For yuks I include some other names:
1 Chad Cordero WAS 3.972
2 Francisco Rodriguez ANA 2.867
3 Dustin Hermanson CHA 2.728
4 Lance Cormier ARI 2.643
5 Jesse Crain MIN 2.543
6 Bob Wickman CLE 2.526
7 Derrick Turnbow MIL 2.495
8 Jason Isringhausen SLN 2.282
9 Eddie Guardado SEA 2.262
10 Cliff Politte CHA 2.213
11 Scot Shields ANA 2.192
38 Arthur Rhodes CLE 1.355
218 Danny Kolb ATL -0.806
219 Blaine Neal COL -0.827
220 Keith Foulke BOS -1.053
221 Alan Embree BOS -1.054
222 Travis Harper TBA -1.224
223 Byung-Hyun Kim COL -1.257
It's hard to conclude anything without comparing Rincon to only other LOOGYs (no time), but stat-wise he's right in the middle of the pack.
wpa in the house!
Anyway, I believe WPA is rooted in historical data. Basically, they looked at all the games in the last 40 years where the home team was down 1 run in the 7th, with runners on 1st and 2nd, 2 outs and saw how many of them were wins and losses. Etc.
Then they tweak it in ways that vary. I think some people try to tweak it for different parks' hitter-friendliness, like your spreadsheet seems to do.
Thanks
Rincon is average at best
Lefty One Out GuY - a left handed reliever specializing in getting one out, often in game critical situations.
When he is brought in for one out, he is usually average(sometimes he has good streaks). I remember one lefty last year he really failed to get out, but I won't go there for now.
His stats vs. RIGHTIES this year are a 7.88 era, 6 hits (2 hr), 5 walks in 8 ip (ugly):
His stats vs. LEFTIES are better: 2.03 era, 13 hits (1HR), 3 BB in 13.1 ip :
I could not locate inherited runners scored, but am curious about this.
But basically, as a Loogy he is OK. I cannot accept he is as good as Inquisitor suggests, but he is also not total garbage as others claim. Still, baseballgirl makes a great point: How does Rincon make you feel when the game is on the line? Now compare that to how Street or Duke make you feel. This should give you some indication of how good/bad he is. For me he is just average.
2 out of 3
by fadedash on Jul 6, 2005 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions
It's more acceptable for a lefty
But I definitely think there is a double standard when treating righties vs. lefties.
To answer your question, I think getting a batter out 66% of the time as a releiver is NOT good. Especially b/c relievers often come in with runners on. Look at Crosbino's post above on this issue.
by oaktownmario on Jul 6, 2005 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
What similar RP to Rincon makes you feel good?
Phillies fans hate Rheal Cormier. Giants fans don't trust Jason Christiansen. Red Sox fans lived in fear of Mike Myers last year. It's just the job. Keep it long enough, and you're going to wear out your welcome, since everyone remembers the bad outings more than the good ones.
Or, to put it another way: do you want Rincon gone, so you can bring back Arthur Rhodes, Chris Hammond, Mike Venafro, or Mike Magnante?
I'd take Billy Wagner
But that is my point, if you are a lefty you can suck in a way that would get a righty out of the league quick.
by oaktownmario on Jul 6, 2005 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
You're comparing apples to tires.
No
And just b/c Beane got Rincon for nothing does not make Rincon good. Just because you get rid of a huge piece of crap and get a small piece of crap in exchange does not make the trade good. I am not saying Rincon is a small piece of crap, but you get my point. Besides, I have said Rincon is just average, and if used for his purpose - Loogy - he is improved.
Off the top of my head, I picked 3 pitchers in Rincon's category (middle relief lefties, or Loogys) which I thought were good and one which I thought was bad (Villone). I highlight their salary and what are some indicators of success. By the numbers, Rincon is the worst, and is high priced. Look especially at K/9 - isn't that what Loogy's should do well? I could honestly say I'd take all 4 over Rincon.
Neal Cotts ($330,00)
1.91 era; .97 whip; 9.82 k/9; .167 baa
J.C. Romero ($1.25 mill)
2.30 era; 1.34 whip; 8.33 k/9; .207 baa
Damaso Marte ($1.25 mill)
2.81 era; 1.64 whip; 10.17 k/9;.253 baa
Ron Villone ($1.95 mill)
2.67 era; 1.34 whip; 9.09 k/9; .223 baa
Ricky ($1.9 mill)
4.22 era; 1.27 whip; 6.33 k/9; .241 baa
by oaktownmario on Jul 7, 2005 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd probably take all 4 as well.
And no matter what, we are not the fan base that has the most antipathy towards Rincon in MLB. Cleveland Fan got to trade Brian Giles for him, straight up.
Cleveland is dumb
I would say as a true Loogy, Rincon is probably slightly above average. But since he is only occasionally used as a true Loogy, he is just average as a Lefty RP.
by oaktownmario on Jul 7, 2005 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
For a while there...
Of course, when you are knocking on the door every year and falling just short due to pitching problems, it leads you to make deals like this in the first place...
thanks inquisitor
What it comes down to is that whether you look at traditional stats like ERA or batting average against, or more exotic stats like WPA or ARP, or just compare him to the other guys in the pen (much worse than Duke and Street, much better than Glynn, Harikkala, Cruz, and Reames, about equal to Dotel, Calero, and Yabu), Rincon is very average. And that means that sometimes he'll give it up. But there's still a lot of value in being merely average, and our bullpen would have been a lot worse over the last 3 years if we didn't have Rincon.
Now having said all that, I have to add that every time Jim Mecir came into a game, even when he was pitching well, a little part of me died. Fear indeed.
Thanks...
Sometimes it seems that we as fans collectively sour on someone, and then we remember all of their failures. Conversely, we really like some other players, and tend to overlook their mistakes. It's a natural tendency-- impressions are hard to shake. Early in the season, Kielty, Chavez, and Zito fell into the first category, while Scutaro and Kotsay were in the second. I think Rincon is somehow stuck in the first category.
by orange2299 @ Athletics Nation on Jul 7, 2005 12:28 AM PDT reply actions
I was going to add this part right away...
Of the "poor" performances I've earmarked, a good portion of them are, for all intents and purposes, not Rincon's fault. The criterion for a poor performance are: he allows a runner to score, or leaves a mess for someone else to clean up without making any outs in the process. As someone else pointed out, that's 12 of his 37 total appearances.
The problem is, not all of his "poor" performances are his fault. Allowing a runner to score, when you come on with the bases loaded and no outs, is pretty much a given. This is the main problem people have with Rincon - it seems like he fails "all" the time because the only time he pitches is during high leverage situations.
At any rate, there are three "poor" outings where Rincon allows an inherited runner to score (ignoring home runs, since that would allow a run to score regardless). In other words, the run that scores isn't really his fault because he didn't put the runner there to begin with. Going through the list:
- Runners on first and second, allows a single to score a run.
- Runners on first and third, with no outs. Gets two outs before allowing a single to score a run. Then gets the third out. If he had started the inning, no one would have scored.
- Bases loaded, no outs. You really think no one is going to score? Anyway, he gets a K, and gets another ball-in-play that could have been converted into an out, had Hatteberg not misplayed the incoming throw (to be fair, I can't see a replay of the throw, so it might have been a poor throw scored as an error on Hatteberg). Instead, the error causes a run to score. You want to blame this one on Rincon?
Go through that list, and look at the number of times where Rincon is placed in similar situations and succeeds. I'd point them out, but there are plenty to choose from. In particular, after his "atrocious" 21st performance, Rincon runs through a string of great relief appearances, included a bases-loaded one-out situation (where he promptly gets a double play, then gets three outs in three batters during the next inning as well). Look at the sheer number of times you see him enter a game after a fellow reliever can't do the job, or after a starter (Saarloos appears a good number of times in this regard) allows a string of hits/walks while failing to end the inning. Then look at the number of times those situations end with a line like "Hank Blalock flies out" or "Kenny Lofton fouls out" or "Damon pops out". If you want to blame him for his failures, then give him credit for his successes as well.
Do I think he's perfect? No. But relievers who can come into these types of situations and never allow a runner to score are impossible to find. Even "elite" closers like Gagne can't be compared to setup men like Rincon, because a much larger portion of their appearances occur at the beginning of the ninth with no runners on the basepaths. If you look at the number of times Rincon has entered a "clean" inning and allowed a run, they number less than a handful.
In short:
Get off his back. He'll be leaving soon anyway.
by Inquisitor on Jul 7, 2005 4:40 AM PDT reply actions
i can understand your need to show luv
is rincon an effective LOOGY? yes. is he prone to inconsistency? yes. is rincon at times horrible? yes.
Huh?
Prove it. All the evidence is at your disposal.
by Inquisitor on Jul 7, 2005 5:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Any player may be criticized
listen, i don't have a hate on for RR,
hey, i'm not that down on "ricky" rincon! i sorta like the lil' guy. but at 1.9 mil with a 4.22 era and a 1.27 whip...i sometimes wonder....
the hating
ERA for a LOOGY is not a very good judge
you're right.....
"Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"
Rincon should only face lefties
by burnone on Jul 7, 2005 10:07 AM PDT reply actions
Rincon has a good track record with
I don't know...
It seems that the only gas that he has is to add to the fire of an inning.
by Rangla on Jul 7, 2005 6:26 PM PDT reply actions
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