Billy Beane Midseason Interview Part III
Last week, I posted Part I and Part II of the Athletics Nation-Billy Beane Midseason interview.
Now, it concludes with Billy's thoughts on the draft, some players in the minors that deserve our attention and whether or not Moneyball gave away trade secrets.
Enjoy.
Blez: Can you believe that Huston Street has come out and been able to do what he's done this year?
Beane: I think we all felt that at some point he'd be there. But even his response to being a major leaguer, what six or seven months after pitching at Omaha even surprised us. But if you get to know the kid, you realize his makeup is just off the charts. He's just a bright kid, a bright talent and just a tremendous athlete in that role. We thought he'd get to this point at some point, but to get there so quickly and respond to all the pressures of being a major league rookie in such a short amount of time is surprising to myself and everybody surrounding him.
Blez: The A's did something rather unexpected, at least to those who read Moneyball. The team drafted very high school heavy this year. What was the MO behind that thinking? I read that you had a lot of depth at the higher levels of the system.
Beane: That would be true, but that isn't the reason we drafted the way we drafted. If all people took from the book that we only draft college players, then a lot of people out there who completely missed it. What we have to find is where the inefficiencies in the market are, what people are valued and what people are not valuing. That's because the market is always going to shift. What's happened over the last three or four years is that there is a significant push, especially in the higher rounds to draft a lot of college players. We felt like this was going to come at some point. For us, it's now about what is being undervalued. In this draft, who was available to us and where we drafted, this is what we felt.
Ironically, two days after the draft, they ran an article on Baseball Prospectus that said the greatest value in the draft was first round college position players. Now, this is a mercurial study that's going to change all the time. But right now, it's college position players, in this study, where you got the most value was choosing a college position player in the first round. Ironically, the next best value in the second round was high school pitchers. This is after the draft. Now, this is one study and there are a number of clubs that are always studying where the best value is and where is the best time to take a player. This is going to change. And we try to do those studies as well. And seeing the trend and where it was going the last couple of years, we needed to be prepared to say, listen this high schooler in the second round was once rated as one of the top 15 picks and now he's dropped down to pick number fifty-something. This is now a good value for us. I don't want to speak for Michael (Lewis) because he wrote the book, but that's really what the book was about. The same thing with on-base percentage because now the market is valuing it.
You know how we know the market is valuing it? Because $18 million a year to Jason Giambi. Eight or nine years ago, people weren't paying for it at the level that they are now. Now they are. The highest paid statistic in the game now is on-base percentage. We're not dunderheads here, if other teams are paying for it and we can't get it, we're going to go out and try and find out what other teams aren't paying for. One of the reasons we got Mark Kotsay is because of his defense. We had to start shifting and finding guys in other areas. We led the league in fielding percentage last year and we were second in the league in pitching. So, if you listen to the people that cover this team, there's this assumption that we're this slow-pitch softball team. At one point, we were probably close to it. Back in 1999, we had a lot of homers, we were a high on-base percentage team and we scored a lot of runs. But we didn't have a particularly great defense. The shift over time was because the market started valuing those things. We were the top team in the league, fielding percentage-wise, but you would've never believed that five or six years ago.
Blez: Do you think there's a chance that the market started overvaluing this stuff, in part, because of Moneyball?
Beane: That, you'd have to ask those people. There's some smart guys out there, in my opinion. I think they would've found this regardless of whether or not the book was written. Theo Epstein. Brian Cashman is very bright. He's got a lot of money, but he's also very smart. Obviously, in my opinion, Paul DePodesta. I'm very partial to the JP's (Ricciardi) and Paul DePodesta's of the world. But there are some smart guys out there. Theo's bright. The guys could do it on their own, they didn't need a book. The young guys coming into the game, well, there's just some impressive guys out there. In 10 years, I won't be able to even apply for this job. (Laughing) I'll be fly fishing somewhere.
Blez: What do you think of the quality of this year's A's draft?
Beane: We're very happy with it. But all 30 of us are usually after the draft. Time will tell. We were happy at the end of the day to be able to get what we got. Pennington, he's a leadoff guy. And we can use that type of player. A leadoff guy who runs well and a guy who has succeeded at the highest level. We were lucky he was there. Travis Buck, who kind of fits our profile, and we think he's a corner guy who will hit for power. The younger guys, we'll see. But they're all very talented guys in these points in their careers. I think when you look at a draft you almost have to ask that question in another year. Because you go back and look at last year's draft and we're very happy with it despite one of our first rounders blowing out his knee, Landon Powell. Going through that draft, you've got Danny Putnam, Kurt Suzuki, Huston Street and Richie Robnett is just starting to get going. I'm very, very excited about what's going on there. You're not always going to get a hit, and the draft is something you're never going to nail down.
Blez: Was there any name, maybe a surprise name that was taken deeper in the draft, that people should pay attention to?
Beane: Oh, Dallas Braden.
Blez: Actually, I'm talking about this year's draft.
Beane: It's still a bit too early to say. You also don't necessarily want to single certain guys out. There are guys that we think we got, but I think it's better left unmentioned and then if they do well, I'll claim I knew it all along. (Laughing)
Blez: (Laughing) Who is currently in the A's minor league system that A's fans should pay attention to that they may not be all that familiar with? You mentioned Dallas Braden.
Beane: Braden is a great one. That was one I was going to go back to. Dallas was someone we drafted in the 15th or so round and he's only 21-years-old and he's already at Double-A. He won again last night. He's a low-round pick who is just flying through the system. Windsor, the kid we took from Fullerton last year, is already at Double-A. And again, I'm eliminating guys that people already probably know about, you know the Herrera's of the world and Putnam. But the first one to come to mind is Braden. To be that young and already pitching at Double-A is a pretty rapid rise AND he's pitching well there.
Blez: What do you attribute it to?
Beane: If we were that smart, we would've taken him a lot higher. I always love the Rich Harden, who was what, our 16th or 17th rounder that year? And people say, great job, if that was your 17th, what do the first 16th look like? There's a significant amount to luck. It's an imperfect system. That's why the job is so difficult with scouts. When a guy like Hudson comes out in the sixth round or Harden comes out in the 17th round or Piazza comes out of the 50th round or wherever he came from, it shows you the risk that's in there and that no one has really nailed it down. There's a lot of luck and miscalculation involved.
Blez: How do you feel about the Kendall deal at this point?
Beane: Well, first of all, you talk about a leader and Jason has just been unbelievable even though he's struggled early on. Now, if you look at his performance recently, and I think I actually saw this in something you wrote, if you look at the last 30-40 games, he's hitting .307 which is closer to his career average. Jason is going to be better judged over his tenure here as opposed to short-term results. The league adjustment for him has been exactly that, an adjustment. But you're talking about a guy who is a .306 lifetime hitter and you're going to see that over the course of time. Nobody cares more than he does. He's been great. I love having the guy around.
Blez: Does he have an undisclosed injury with his arm because it seems like teams have been running wild on him? I know it's not all him...although he is two-for-two in throwing basestealers out over the last little while.
Beane: You're right that it isn't all his fault, but in fairness to him, it's something he's been working on. Catchers can get in a bit of a funk mechanically. I know he's been working on it. But just know that in some cases, it isn't always the catcher's fault. Jason has thrown better in his career and it might be just a little bit of a blip on the screen. I don't think he would tell you that he was going to be Ivan Rodriguez in his prime, but no one is. I think it's a mechanical thing and I think you see on pitch outs, when he even has plenty of time, he's going through the thought process and as a catcher you can't do that.
Blez: You just have to react.
Beane: Yeah, and I love him on this team. He brings a lot of intangible things that are very hard to define. But if you're around that team and around that guy, this guy just loves to play and loves to win. He takes every loss to heart. And it's just been an absolutely pleasure to have him around. He's a guy who if fans really knew how much he cares, they'd really attach themselves to him.
Blez: Do you think he's part of the reason some of the younger guys were able to kind of turn things around?
Beane: I'm sure he's a part of it because Jason is a very self-confident guy. He's not a physically big guy, but he's very self-confident. He's got a presence. He's the type of guy when you're around him, you feel like he is in control. Not only that, but if they don't perform well, then he's going to take responsibility for that and that's one of the things you want in a catcher. Jason cares as much about that as he does about getting hits. He's not one of the guys who just takes his at-bats behind the plate. He really cares. That's really important to him as a catcher.
Blez: You talked about Lew Wolff earlier. Have things changed much from Steve Schott to Lew Wolff?
Beane: Well, not anything day-to-day. I have a lot of communications with Lew. And he's really involved in a great way. Steve, in many cases, wasn't around as much and our communication wasn't on a daily basis. Lew, I'll talk to him or have communication with him two times a day. He's just such a fan and that's the great thing as an A's fan. He's just a fan. He's a very intelligent and passionate guy who is dedicated to solving the stadium issue. I get emails from this guy at 5:30 in the morning. He was in France and he had to go there for like seven days during a really rough patch. I'm getting emails from him all hours of the night, in a good way, though. He's a very refreshing individual to be around. He has seats behind the dugout and he wants to go out there and sit and meet people and say hello to them. He's a lot of fun to have around and is just such a positive individual. It's no criticism of anyone else, it's just that he's really unique. He's made me really smart because we're going through this really difficult time in his chart year. You want to talk about breeding loyalty? You want to go through walls to make sure that this guy realizes some success. It's been a pleasure to have him around.
Blez: Has your overall budget increased since Lew took over? Or will it be basically more of the same?
Beane: There's the right time to do things and Lew is all for making good baseball decisions. I would probably say, let's do it at the right time. When the right baseball decision comes along and it fits short-term and long-term, then I have no doubt (the budget will increase) as he said it to me. But there's a right time to do some things. I won't necessarily go out tomorrow and take on some bloated contract so everyone can say, "Hey, they're spending money." That's not the right thing to do or the right way to run the business.
Blez: But using the money, in this instance, to resign someone like Kotsay?
Beane: Possibly, there's a number of things. But you don't want to go out there just to tell people you're spending money. You have to be making good baseball decisions. The good thing is to blend the two.
Blez: Billy, I have a Kotsay jersey. Just tell me you'll resign him.
Beane: (Laughing) There's nothing to extrapolate anything out of this and assuming I'm talking about Mark. I'm not really talking about Mark. There's times that yes, maybe we should've done something, but there was a decision based on economics. That doesn't mean that, me as a general manager, is going to agree with everyone else. To go back and talk about the people writing things on the team, if we did everything they said, we'd be in big trouble right now. So we sometimes have to make decisions that separate emotion from a good decision. But we have to make a lot of decisions based on economics. That's why Lew is spending a lot of his time on a new venue. It's that big elephant back there, for lack of a better term. I know everyone is tired of it, but it's something we need. Lew is doing everything he can to make it happen.
Blez: Has your perspective changed at all now being part of the ownership group?
Beane: Not at all. I feel every bit as competitive. I didn't wake up one day and things change, other than perhaps changing my business card, which I still haven't done. I've always taken the approach to this franchise as if that was a part of my job any way. I always thought, what's best for the franchise long-term? I've always taken that approach any way, so it really didn't change much.
Blez: I think that's pretty much all I have for you today. Thanks so much for taking so much time out to talk with AN and myself.
Beane: No problem, Tyler. It's always a pleasure.
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96 comments
Comments
Nice interview...
by josh smith on
Jul 4, 2005 10:02 PM PDT
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just got back from a 4th party
great work blez
by Ryan Armbrust on
Jul 4, 2005 10:11 PM PDT
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very non-committal on Kotsay...
by FoolshGame22 on
Jul 4, 2005 10:15 PM PDT
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Thoughts
by Colorado Fan on
Jul 5, 2005 10:20 AM PDT
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remember the timing, folks
by oaktoon on
Jul 5, 2005 10:37 AM PDT
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the meaning of "moneyball"
someone send that to joe morgan, ray ratto, and everyone else that has misinterpreted the book...
by xbhaskarx on
Jul 4, 2005 10:27 PM PDT
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those two
Why do you think ESPN likes them so much?
by Alien on
Jul 4, 2005 10:31 PM PDT
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Very good point
by monkeyball on
Jul 5, 2005 10:39 AM PDT
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Seems Kotsay is gone
by Durden on
Jul 4, 2005 10:31 PM PDT
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Pack your bags!
by Graybeard on
Jul 5, 2005 2:33 PM PDT
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Kotsay and Centerfield
Any ideas?
by Zonis on
Jul 4, 2005 10:35 PM PDT
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It'll be Byrnes in CF...
by FoolshGame22 on
Jul 4, 2005 10:38 PM PDT
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No way
by Alien on
Jul 4, 2005 10:41 PM PDT
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I agree...
by FoolshGame22 on
Jul 4, 2005 10:46 PM PDT
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Billy wasn't going to go on record
Billy probably just wants to keep his options open when it comes to Kotsay.
by Blez on
Jul 4, 2005 10:59 PM PDT
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No, of course, he wouldn't...
- Why do you hate Eric Byrnes? or, if that's too undiplomatic...
- Why did you keep Eric Byrnes? He's relatively expensive compared to Kielty, Swisher and Thomas and you, obviously, don't like him... So why? Or...
- Billy, I have a Kotsay jersey... couldn't you just trade Eric Byrnes and re-sign Kotsay?
by FoolshGame22 on
Jul 4, 2005 11:12 PM PDT
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if beane "values" defense...
it appears the money is there to sign kotsay. give him a limited no-trade and get on with it. i really can't see beane permitting byrnes anywhere near CF on the a's.
nice interview blez.
by bigelephant on
Jul 5, 2005 5:58 AM PDT
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value
by NYC on
Jul 5, 2005 7:47 AM PDT
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do we believe reports that Kotsay
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 8:23 AM PDT
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How close will 3 years
by ArakSOT on
Jul 5, 2005 8:27 AM PDT
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when was Kotsay's first
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 8:47 AM PDT
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answering my own question
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 9:05 AM PDT
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and if Kotsay is with the A's
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 9:06 AM PDT
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If Kotsay signs a three year extension
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 9:10 AM PDT
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re: $$$$ vs no-trade
by bigelephant on
Jul 5, 2005 8:50 AM PDT
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Exactly
Red Barber, announcer
by Furious George on
Jul 5, 2005 8:26 AM PDT
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Rincon
Wells would be wonderful to get, but why would the Jays part with him? I just don't think Billy is going to give up to much to improve this years team. How much are the A's willing to package with Rincon to get something really worth their while.
Also, would anyone take Ginter off our hands?
However, I still say that Kotsay is staying.
by Alien on
Jul 4, 2005 10:39 PM PDT
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Good job again!
"We're not dunderheads here, if other teams are paying for it and we can't get it, we're going to go out and try and find out what other teams aren't paying for."
Sounds exactly like Moneyball to me!
"So, if you listen to the people that cover this team, there's this assumption that we're this slow-pitch softball team."
Sounds exactly like what I wrote in my 1st diary... no respect from the media!
"Blez: Billy, I have a Kotsay jersey. Just tell me you'll resign him."
Sounds like an honestly excited fan. At least you got him to laugh, but no real info :(
by streetfan on
Jul 4, 2005 10:38 PM PDT
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I wonder now IF Kotsay is gone...
Great interview Blez, as always.
Got my pc fixed after numerous safe mode tweakings. Ordered a Mac once I got the pc going. Currently suffering from buyers remorse. Pissing down rain all weekend here...I miss my week in the Bay Area already.
Replayed the Sunday Sox game from the 6th inning on...that Zito chant was fantastic.
by ak_A on
Jul 4, 2005 10:49 PM PDT
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no worries
What is a "blue screen" again?
by haze on
Jul 4, 2005 10:54 PM PDT
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I am looking
by ak_A on
Jul 4, 2005 10:57 PM PDT
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Kotsay has no loyalty to us.
Oh, and then there were those seven magic words:
http://athleticsnation.com/story/2005/7/2/15242/16253
Even with a new ballpark and increased revenues, I never see Billy Beane signing a long term deal with a Mark Kotsay. My guess is that the long term plan is to lock up Crosby, Swisher, Johnson, Harden, etc, when their time comes.
Zito will be the first indication of whether we are indeed in a "new era". But he'll need to work with us like Chavez did.
by Rob on
Jul 5, 2005 8:41 AM PDT
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Thanks Blez/BB
by haze on
Jul 4, 2005 10:52 PM PDT
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There are other teams to root for?
by baseballgirl on
Jul 5, 2005 9:41 AM PDT
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Whoa there
by haze on
Jul 5, 2005 12:19 PM PDT
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I love the part...
by Mabster on
Jul 4, 2005 11:03 PM PDT
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we should love the thickheaded
by Apricot on
Jul 4, 2005 11:33 PM PDT
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Fantastic job again!
Im a big fan of the Beane and Wolff combination. They see the big picture, when its time to add payroll, they will (I assume when the new ballpark comes rolling in). They wont just spend just to spend like so many foolish organizations. I never got the feeling that Schott cared about the A's ('02 playoffs against Twins) like I get from Wolff.
by pickinmachine on
Jul 4, 2005 11:27 PM PDT
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Tyler......
I'll bet he even knows your wife's first name, too!
by Rob on
Jul 4, 2005 11:31 PM PDT
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Reading too much into the interview
Based on the entire interview, I can imagine Kotsay being dealt as part of a package that nets the team a young power-hitting outfielder in return.
But trading Kotsay creates a huge void, as he is the best non-pitcher on the team. The only people on the 40-man roster who can play center field (Swisher, Byrnes, Thomas) are stopgaps at best. And Kotsay's defense has saved a bunch of runs, and games, for the young pitching staff.
I think Beane wants to preserve his options, and avoid making promises he can't keep. That's all.
by bear88 on
Jul 5, 2005 12:02 AM PDT
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tea leaves
Billy's running a business. He knows that Blez will faithfully report what he says (thank you, Blez!!!) and it will be part of the public record for everyone (including other GM's if they care to) to read. BB's gotta keep a few cards close to his vest.
I agree with the general sentiment that Kotsay = secuirty & Byrnes = adventure but fear. Personally, I'd rather have a secure feeling about my center fielder.
by NomAd on
Jul 5, 2005 12:42 AM PDT
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It's what Beane didn't say that is important...
Just the same, when Blez asks BB about re-signing Kotsay, he could have responded something along the lines of: "We think Kots is an integral part of our future and I'm working diligently with his agent to get an extension done." That doesn't give away any deep, dark close-to-the-vest secrets. That's what we're all supposing is happening, right?
The reason he didn't say something like that is because, I suspect, it's not true. In other words, the silence is deafening.
by FoolshGame22 on
Jul 5, 2005 3:22 AM PDT
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Good stuff Blez...
My immediate concern, as is with many, is of coarse re-signing Mark Kotsay. This is such a no brainer, especially since all reports seem to be indicating he is only seeking roughly the same amount of money three years from now, compared to his current salary. If Jason Kendall can get paid 10 mill. plus a year(yes I know the parameters of his contract situation with the Pirates picking up salary in a few more years) being a "leader" with many intangibles, then I believe Mark Kotsay is worth the 7.5 to 8 mill per year that he is believed to be asking for. ( "Attention K-Mart shoppers, this is the bargain of the century!!!") Talk about a guy that just makes you feel at ease fielding his position....Not to mention that he just goes out and leads by example and commands the respect of so many of the younger guys on the club.
Actually, I think re-signing Mark is not only imperative, but absolutely neccessary, period. Can you imagine what it would do to the team morale if he got traded in thr middle of the season???? I just don't see how trading him could possibly make the team better: Prospects or no prospects! It's time to show the fans that the A's are willing to spend a little more cash on guys that are key ingredients to the ballclub and, that it is possible to continue with a philosophy of building a winner with drafting good talent while retaining players that are true big league ballers. So that's my piece on Kotsay.
The next one of coarse is Barry Zito.........
Well, I think his performance on Sunday against the ChiSox pretty much speaks for itself and now all the Zito haters can kiss my arse! Seriously, though, I never stopped believing in Z as a fan or a baseball fiend and that 124 pitch 8 inning affair was a beauty. Just masterful....
Now, can we all stop wondering why Biil Beane decided to keep him instead of Huddy or Mulder?
I think keeping Zito was a briiliant call and him staying beyond his current contract will depend on how we fair the rest of this year and thru next. He's one guy I would like to see in an A's uniform into his early thirties, along with Rich Harden. Wearing the green n gold for life is not something we are accustomed to seeing much anymore but it's never too late to start that tradition again with the right players....
Signing off with a wish of peace and love for mankind. Happy 4th to all and yours....MRod
by mrod on
Jul 5, 2005 12:14 AM PDT
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I see a new t-shirt on the horizon...
In Billy We Trust
by NomAd on
Jul 5, 2005 12:43 AM PDT
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Thanks, Tyler
Lew Wolff is certainly looking better and better, now if he could just quickly announce a stadium plan and make a commitment to Oakland (or at least the Bay Area)
by secret ASian man on
Jul 5, 2005 12:44 AM PDT
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Good stuff, good stuff...
Anyway, once again, thank you so much for bringing us this interview! We take for granted that we're so lucky to get this insider's view. Even though his answers to the trading questions were quite cryptic.
by Melody on
Jul 5, 2005 1:19 AM PDT
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Trading questions
Imagine what would happen if Beane was 100% candid with Blez. Gammons would then quote AN on possible A's deals?
Speaking of Gammons, I think the anti-Joe Morgan should get an interview.
But that's just me.
by secret ASian man on
Jul 5, 2005 1:27 AM PDT
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I wonder that too
I still don't completely understand why Jeremy Brown was drafted where he was unless it was to show our faith in him and to make sure he signed. It seemed like we could have drafted him in the 50th round without anyone even thinking about drafting him.
Red Barber, announcer
by Furious George on
Jul 5, 2005 8:36 AM PDT
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Braden
by Colorado Fan on
Jul 5, 2005 10:37 AM PDT
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that was great
by Apricot on
Jul 5, 2005 10:46 AM PDT
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Nice job, Blez
If BB decides we must trade Kotsay, so be it, we will be better off because of it. I love Kotsay but the truth he is a good centerfielder which we will overpay to keep, no power, and at an age he might decline rather quickly. BB knows what he is doing and he won't trade him unless it is necessary and he gets something worth getting back. The A's are in a great bargaining position, they don't need to trade him or anybody else, but they have some decent chips to get rid of to other teams more desperate.
by china bob on
Jul 5, 2005 1:41 AM PDT
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Kotsay is 29
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 6:11 AM PDT
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His age isn't a problem...
by Oakland East on
Jul 5, 2005 9:04 AM PDT
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He has a chronic back problem
Since Kotsay has become a Pilates practitioner he has greatly increased the strength and flexibility of his back. He has not gone on the DL since then, and has only missed a few games.
I have the same condition, and I know from experience that if he takes care of himself he probably won't lose significant playing time. In fact, he's learned to do things with his body correctly, which as he ages will help keep him fit for playing ball.
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 10:41 AM PDT
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great job, Blez
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 5:24 AM PDT
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just to clarify
by OaklandSi on
Jul 5, 2005 5:26 AM PDT
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Just for the record
BTW I was surprised that Billy just came out and told us about why the A's took high schoolers in this years draft and why they were looking at defense more these days. Those were the explanations most of us had already given for those two trends, but to hear the man say it was awesome in the "great minds think alike" way... :)
by OaktownTribesman on
Jul 5, 2005 5:38 AM PDT
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Billy eschewed high school players
My question is: can our team afford to take long shots with the draft, our lifeblood?
"Moneyball", chapter and verse (p. 16):
"You only had to study the history of the draft to see that high school pitchers were twice less likely than college pitchers, and four times less likely than college position players, to make it to the big leagues."
-- Although I admit it's ironic that the above passage is in reference to when the A's drafted HS player Bonderman, who's turned out to be a damn good pitcher.
by Checkswing HR on
Jul 5, 2005 7:58 AM PDT
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Yes !!!
by ogallalabob on
Jul 5, 2005 1:57 PM PDT
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You make a compelling argument,
I want to make clear, though, that I think Billy is a fabulous GM. We all wonder who has been the most valuable to this franchise since '99, be it Miggy, Hudson, Kotsay, etc., but to me Billy has been the wheels on this wagon.
by Checkswing HR on
Jul 5, 2005 3:31 PM PDT
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The Draft
Also if you look at the NBA draft, though a lot of the high school players drafted never do anything but some of those who were drafted have been super stars taken in the middle of the first round (Kobe, Stoudamare, Garnett, Jermaine O Niel etc) I can not see a drafting strategy which ignores an entire class of prospects being a good idea.
by ogallalabob on
Jul 6, 2005 7:11 AM PDT
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"Moneyball"
I work in the stock market. I'm a value investor, so I can appreciate the concept of picking up a $15m hitter for $300k per year. But drafting a HS player is like buying stock in a venture capital situation. It is impossible to value a business whose sole asset is a business plan. Cashman and Epstein can afford to take flyers on HS players, but how can the A's?
I'll defer to Billy's judgement, though.
by Checkswing HR on
Jul 6, 2005 9:16 AM PDT
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I wouldn't get too hung up
- Moneyball is the Golden Book of Sabermetrics, not the actual manual.
- 'odds are against' is a relative, not an absolute idea. If we had to choose between the 100th through 105th college player and the 1st through 5th HS player, I think our odds are much better with the HS player. Our case isn't that extreme, but because of the market overvaluing college players and overselecting college players, the A's decided the HSers were worth the risk compared to the college players that dropped down.
- I do think there is an idea that our system has mainly medium-risk medium-gain players and doesn't have too many Chavy's in the system. I think Beane's scheme needs a small core of young stars to build around, and getting them in HS is the only real way to do it.
by Apricot on
Jul 6, 2005 9:28 AM PDT
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Taking Flyers
The little I have read it sounds like one of our pitchers is probably a good comparison to Colt in that he is the hardest throwing pitcher in the draft and in some years some team would have taken him in the first round based on that alone. Thinking that they can teach him a breaking pitch and some comand. Now taking him in the first round and paying him a huge bonus and slot money maybe a bad investment, but in the 3rd round where you can get bye with a reasonable price looks like a reasonable gamble.
by ogallalabob on
Jul 6, 2005 11:00 AM PDT
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Being an A's fan means...
Mark Kotsay is a wonderful baseball player. Two years ago hardly anyone knew that. Now you know it, I know it, Billy knows it. But now George Steinbrenner and every GM in baseball know it too, and Kotsay's agent knows that they know.
I want Kotsay signed, but for how much? $100 million a year guaranteed for twenty years? Obviously that's too much. BB has some other much smaller figure in mind, above which Kotsay's contract would hurt the team more than it helps. He won't go there.
As an A's fan I can only trust that if he trades Kotsay he'll get something better in return. Hard to imagine, but it was hard to imagine Ramon Hernandez being traded too.
by matthias on
Jul 5, 2005 8:06 AM PDT
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I Can't See Them Trading Kotsay
by Duby on
Jul 5, 2005 8:28 AM PDT
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Would agree
by ogallalabob on
Jul 5, 2005 1:43 PM PDT
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interesting quotes
On Kotsay, I think Billy's just being a little reserved since contract talks are warming up with him. I'd give him 50-50 odds on being an Athletic next year. The quote about Wolff increasing the payroll ("When the right baseball decision comes along and it fits short-term and long-term, then I have no doubt the budget will increase as he said it to me") is very encouraging (though I still don't trust Wolff to keep the A's in Oakland). Might re-signing Kotsay AND Zito be the "right baseball decision" that fits short-term and long-term? If I had a bazillion dollars, it would be.
by Brian in 317 on
Jul 5, 2005 8:40 AM PDT
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Exactly
Partic. if, as I gloom and doomed a while back, the attendance does not drop off and the team appears ready for a deep run into the playoffs very soon.
by oaktoon on
Jul 5, 2005 10:41 AM PDT
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Perhaps that's what they have in mind...
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on
Jul 5, 2005 1:42 PM PDT
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Outfield Depth
by Colorado Fan on
Jul 5, 2005 10:49 AM PDT
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disagree
We have enough decent OF to fill in for Kotsay. Can we replace him? Absolutely not. But remember the days when T-Long and Jeremy G were roaming the OF? Compared to those days, having Swish, Byrnes, Kielty and Thomas out there is a pretty good bunch.
by Apricot on
Jul 5, 2005 11:02 AM PDT
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the days when T-Long and Jeremy G were roaming the
by green star oakland on
Jul 5, 2005 11:06 AM PDT
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Speaking of Jeremy G
From the "Enemy of the State" article, about the player A's fans should hate the most:
Jeremy Giambi. The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Oakland nine that day/The score stood 1 to zero, with but a few innings left to play/So upon that stricken multitude, sat grim melancholy's fate;for there seemed but little chance of the A's getting to the plate/But Giambi let drive a single, to the wonderment of all. And Long, the much despised, tore the cover off the ball ... Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright./The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light./And, somewhere men are laughing, and little children hide,/but there is no joy in Oakland - mighty Giambi has failed to slide.
by Alien on
Jul 5, 2005 11:19 AM PDT
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nice poem but...
by skwid on
Jul 5, 2005 1:42 PM PDT
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Escuse me, but I was there
by oaktoon on
Jul 5, 2005 2:06 PM PDT
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absolutely
My brother and I were sitting right behind the A's dugout and saying, "Byrnes pinch runs here, right? Byrnes...Byrnes...where's Byrnes?"
I had a great time at the game, but damn did that one hurt.
by Dog Days on
Jul 5, 2005 3:01 PM PDT
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2009
One would think the money will be available for Kotsay and Zito as long as their salary demands are reasonable.
I would think signing anyone like Kotsay and Zito beyond 2009 will be problematic if the team wants to keep people like Harden, Haren, Crosby, Street, Swisher, etc. when they would become eligible for free agency.
by SA on
Jul 5, 2005 11:10 AM PDT
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Presumption of Not resigning Kotsay is...
BB has never tipped his hand to the press and certainly will not do so despite Tyler's best hopes. From all that has been said in the press, we have gathered more info from Kotsay than anybody else. Kotsay, when last quoted, seemed optimistic. There is no way AN should feel otherwise. If he was traded at this juncture, maybe it would be more acceptible given the current play of our team. With that said, any trade involving Kotsay will not be made based upon the team's recent success.
Kudos to Hudgens and Young who have quietly worked and worked with our young players to develop them. The maturity of Blanton, Haren, Swisher and Crosby is for all to see. These guys, like BB don't crave the spotlight. Any coach in Oakland who has put himself before the team, has found himself ultimately working elsewhere. That's Beane's style and it has worked well.
Going back to my previous post of whether or not the A's can go 9-3 to get above .500 before the All-Star Break. Now the question is can we go 4-2 against Toronto and Chicago? If not what do you predict?
by Gerard on
Jul 5, 2005 11:12 AM PDT
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From Ryne Sandberg
ON THE RISE
Oakland Athletics (40-41) - Everything is coming together since the A's have gotten healthy. They have sneaked back into the AL wild-card hunt by winning 13 of their last 15. There was talk of dismantling the team during their early-season struggles, but now Billy Beane might be thinking about adding instead of subtracting.
by Steve in Napa on
Jul 5, 2005 11:57 AM PDT
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Sandberg
by Alien on
Jul 5, 2005 12:02 PM PDT
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questions for BB
by sec119 on
Jul 5, 2005 12:49 PM PDT
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great interview
by gojohn10 on
Jul 5, 2005 1:09 PM PDT
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Thank goodness Lew Wolff...
Of course, they don't have to worry about attendance or a new stadium like the A's do.
Good job, Blez!
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on
Jul 5, 2005 1:49 PM PDT
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Spend $$$ at the right time
Now I know many here feel like that time is now, but I urge everyone to look forward a year or two to when the young guys have matured and we are in 2001-esque position and need a big bat (or a big arm) to get farther than a BB-era team ever has (e.g., past the divisionals).
If Wolff sticks to his guns, a boost in payroll may give us the $ to trade for and extend a top guy at the deadline. While we have made big deals in the past, the extra $$ could be the difference in signing one of those signees after the trade to bolster the team for years to come . . .
Imagine if we had extended Damon . . . or Guillen . . . or instead of helping to move Beltran, we traded for and signed him?
by Josh on
Jul 5, 2005 3:10 PM PDT
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Awesome interview, Blez!
by AsGirl on
Jul 5, 2005 3:41 PM PDT
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