Draft Recap
Last week, Kevin Goldstein, staff writer and general manager of BaseballAmerica.com provided insight prior to baseball's amateur draft. At the time, he felt like the A's could be leaning more towards high school players than ever before. It turns out he is in possession of quite a crystal ball.
Now, Goldstein returns to provide some insight on some of our newest Oakland Athletics.
Blez: First, I guess judging from our last talk, you were quite right about the pendulum of
opportunity swinging back toward high school players, at least from Oakland's view. How
would you grade the 2005 amateur draft for the Oakland Athletics?
Goldstein: Well, that's such a very very hard thing to do. We do our draft report cards at the end of the season - and even then, it's very forward looking. Realistically, one needs two, three even four years to adequately grade a draft. That said, I'll give in a B or a B- or so. It's above average, but not stunning.
Blez: Do you think the strength of the Oakland farm system gave them the flexibility to draft some players who might be a little further away than the typical college kids they draft?
Goldstein: I think it's a combination of a number of factors really. First is what we talked about earlier - with more teams going the college route, high school players drop down and offer a greater return on investment. In addition, if you look at the Oakland system right now, there's not a whole lot of YOUNG talent around. Kane County for example, is not exactly prospect-laden, nor would I expect their two short-season teams to be. This allows them to fill in the talent there for the next two years, and kind of balance the system out a bit
if you will.
Blez: There's been some concern expressed over signing a lot of the players the A's drafted. Do you think they'll be able to secure the majority of these players?
Goldstein: I do. They only real signability issue I see would be Justin Smoak with the 16th round pick, but I think the chance of getting him is certainly worth the shot. If they somehow
sign him, it's an inspired selection.
Blez: How good do you think Pennington will be and how quickly do you think he'll get to the
pros?
Goldstein: I think it's a solid pick, and a very safe pick, very much in line with the types of
players Oakland has coveted in the last few years. He already has solid tools across the
board, and everything about his game is accentuated by fantastic makeup and excellent
baseball instincts. If I were to nitpick the selection, I'd just question his ceiling.
I'm not sure he projects as a star, but the chances of him becoming a very solid major
leaguer are very good. But he makes good contact, is a good runner, a good fielder, draws
walks, and has gap power. There's a lot to like there.
Blez: Which pitcher has the best chance of being a plus starter in the majors? Who has the
best stuff of any pitcher the A's drafted?
Goldstein: Best chance of being a plus starter: Jared Lansford
Best stuff: Craig Italiano
Blez: Can you give me a quick recap of their first four picks and what your feeling is on those players?
Goldstein: Well, I touched on Pennington earlier, so lets do the next four.
Buck: Again, a very 'old-school' A's pick. He did have a slightly off year this season
(especially in terms of power) statistically, but was also getting pitched around quite a
bit. He's a very good hitter who makes consistent hard contact, and could grow into some
power as he adjusts to wood. The biggest concern for Buck is his defense. He's probably
limited to left field, as he's been pretty bad when tried in the infield and has a
below-average arm.
Italiano: I really like this pick. Italiano had the best velocity of any high school arm
in the draft, consistently touching 97-98. He also has a very good slider. The reason a
high school arm like that does NOT go in the first round are mechanics. Italiano
short-arms the ball, so people worry about his durability, but I think there's a chance
Oakland could work him into a lights-out reliever.
Lansford: This was also interesting, as the A's announced him as a righthanded pitcher
when they selected him. That's significant, because Jared's father (former A's 3B Carney
Lansford) made it pretty clear that he wanted his son to be considered only as a position
player (he plays 2B, and is a good hitter), or he'd go to college. Most scouts preferred
him as a pitcher, and I'm guessing that the A's are maybe the only team for which Carney
would let his son sign as a pitcher.
Mazzaro: Am I really writing about the third straight high school pitcher taken by the A's
before the third round? Wow. Good stuff, good body - only concern is his motion (he throws
well across his body), but a solid pick at #101.
Blez: And finally, any players taken later in the A's draft that you think could be a
surprise major leaguer?
Goldstein: My sleeper would be Smoak, but he's far more talented than your average 16th round pick, and he's more than likely going to college. As for players more realistically entering the A's system, gimme Jason Ray, a bit of a late bloomer (he didn't start pitching until his sophomore year) who already touches 96 and has a very fresh arm.
Thanks, Kevin! AN truly appreciates your time.
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Interesting
Im glad to see that he thinks the A's will be able to sign almost all of the HS players that they drafted. I think that Italiano will probably blow his arm out if he has an odd delievery and throws that hard.
But what the heck, we're rolling the dice anyway, 97-98mph sounds like a nice payoff
Wow, Nice chat
Smoak and Deal!!!
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 13, 2005 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Some things about Buck:
The announcers said that he hit most if not all of his homers against top 10 teams.
His 5th of the year being a shot off of Ricky Ramero that would have won the game for ASU if the pen did not implode on Friday night.
He hits in the high 3's against Lefties as well as Righties.
Also, his swing is A-Mazingly quick. It seems to be all hands and he can use the whole field. I can see how his power numbers aren't there. They were staying away from him so he went the other way. Any inside pitches seemed to be off-speed stuff.
Also his character is that of a beaming, bright eyed and big smiling team leader.
Actually, He, Larrish and Gosewich really impressed me.
I think he was a great pick.
I can see both he and Pennington being at the top of the order by 2008.
Pennington
Buck
Crosby
Chavez
Johnson
Suzuki
Swisher
Barton
Herrera
And that's with no FA's or trades!!
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 13, 2005 1:17 PM PDT reply actions
The Lansford Pick Really Intrigues Me
People seem to rate him very highly as a pitchers, but Carney really wants him to be a second baseman. Why?
Will the A's consider him as an infielder at all? Where does his high ceiling come from? Does he throw really hard? Great control? Nice junk?
I've read
I'm sure the A's will give him some time in the IF, keeping their fingers crossed that he either turns into a super star or washes out (as an infielder) immediately.
This is the perfect lead-in
How about it Blez? You have yet to interview a former A's great. I'm sure AN would love it.
Great job on this one, btw.
The really weird thing about Lansford
Lansford
I played my High School baseball @ Saint Francis as well, so I'll be watching this one closely. I believe Jared Lansford signed a letter of intent with Santa Clara University, and their current head coach (Mark O'Brien) is a former SF Lancer, as well.
It should be interesting to see if Jared decides to stay in school or sign w/ the A's. I don't think it's a done deal for the A's to sign him. Mark O'Brien (SCU) will definitely put the sales pitch on him, emphasizing the fact that he can go to school, play in the field, and pitch on occasion. "The professional level will always be there. A college education is very important...blah, blah, blah".
Good Luck, Jared!
by Colorado Fan on Jun 13, 2005 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Go Bellarmine!!!!
On a side note, Jared throws in the 92-94 MPH range, not the high 90's- as reported in other places in and outside of this thread. Craig Italiano is the HS pitcher that throws 97-98. Jared also has a solid curveball and changeup in his arsenal.
by Roscoe Parrish on Jun 13, 2005 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Velocity
As far as him not being a SS, keep in mind that St. Francis is/was one of the tops teams in the country.
well done
i'm pulling for italiano because i just want a jersey with that on the back. i could support a player and state my race all in one.
by JMC @ Athletics Nation on Jun 13, 2005 2:01 PM PDT reply actions
Great interview Blez
Please help disabled kids in Sacramento play baseball by helping the Rivercats build a specially equipped field for them.
High Heat
Forgive my ignorance, but do either Italiano or Smoak project to be starters?
starters
smoak plays first base
by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jun 13, 2005 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
lansford
by crosbyisgod on Jun 13, 2005 3:36 PM PDT reply actions
Pitching
by jarforcefatherofforce on Jun 13, 2005 3:52 PM PDT reply actions
Just to Be Clear ...
In fact, before Hudson came up in 1999, they hadn't developed ANY successful major league starting pitchers since Curt Young, who came up in 1983.
In fact, Rich Harden is the only home-grown A's pitcher of recent times who didn't come from a major college program.
Yes, the A's have helped their pitchers avoid arm injuries on the way up, but it's wrong to say the A's have helped a lot of young hard throwers turn into pitchers.
Also Onto
I Loved Steve Ontiveros!
Can any of you folks out there in AN land think of a single high school pitcher the A's developed into a successful Major League starter? Was the last one Catfish Hunter?
Over/Under = 1
If Billy and Company really think this team is built to compete from 2006 - 2010, then these young live arms will be used as trade bait.
It's pretty tough to change how a kid throws the baseball (short-arming, etc). You can change their mechanics, but changing anyone's arm angle, etc...could lead to a very short career.
by Colorado Fan on Jun 13, 2005 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's a few since Catfish
- Vida Blue
- Mike Norris
- Steve McCatty (sorta)
- Matt Keough (sorta sorta)
- Tim Conroy (just kidding!)
In other words,
No, he's #3
Harvey Korman was #2
Tim....
Oh, sorry! I thought you said Tim Conway.
guess my idea
Good interview, as usual
And the A's DID end up drafting high school players! That was a cool thing that Goldstein told us to look out for in the first interview.
Well done!
by BillybUcko on Jun 14, 2005 8:56 AM PDT reply actions
Buck, slightly off year?
When a kid:
Hits .386 and drives in 40 from the 2 hole.
Hits most of his homers off of Top 10 pitching.
Has 33 multi hit games.
Bats in the very gigh 3's against LH hitting, while being lefthanded himself
Becomes the 21st person in ASU histort to collect 100 hits in a season.
His is slightly off.
I love how Billy makes these guys eat thier words, year in and year out.
I guess his slightly off year is what allowed us to grab him in the comp round?!?!
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 10:07 AM PDT reply actions
Yeah, it is ...
I am stoked for Pennington and Buck!!!
I am really curious as to who will have a better pro career. Ellsbury or Pennington?
Jacoby looks like a huge difference maker at the top of the line-up. I would love to have Blez ask him that question.
What stood out to you about Pennington over Ellsbury? Is it that Ellsbury has trouble with a good inside slider from a lefty?
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
High School All-Star Game
Smoak looks like a stud - He's a switch hitter, and has a body similar to Larry Bigbie. He won the High School HR contest and he looks to be a tremendous athlete. If the A's sign this guy, it will be a great signing. He's a 5-Tool Player w/ a ton of talent.
Sellers looks like a High School Player. He will need a lot of work, and will probably turn into a 2nd Baseman. He looks like he knows the game really well. He made a spectacular play at SS to end a rally. He looks like a good athlete, but was overmatched in one AB.
Thanks for the update.
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm surprised nobody has pointed out
Furthermore, any streak's made to be broken. Just when you conclude it's bad strategy to pick high schoolers, there could be real value there.
If you want further speculation, you could parallel the situation to basketball, where the dynamic has shifted and people are starting to refine how to turn a high school body into a major leaguer.
by TonyArmas on Jun 14, 2005 3:26 PM PDT reply actions
Great point TA!!!
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Cough - Bobby Crosby
QuasiCough - Huston Street
What rounds were they?
by TonyArmas on Jun 14, 2005 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Harden was a sleeper.
I did a study all the way back to 1996 and in the first 3 rounds up until 2002 the best talent was from High School, except for the 2001 draft.
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
and crosby and street were 1st rounders
my point exactly.
by TonyArmas on Jun 14, 2005 4:20 PM PDT reply actions
not even stud, he's one of the only major league
Please at least be close to right if you're going to try to discredit a perfectly valid comment.
by TonyArmas on Jun 14, 2005 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Hudson too:
Re-Read Devo.
by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jun 14, 2005 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
My bad on Crosby
current roster draft positions
Round 1 - 9 (Blanton, Chavez, Crosby, Hatteberg, Kendall, Kotsay, Street, Swisher, Zito)
Round 2-11 - 7 (Haren(2), Saarloos(3), Glynn(4), Johnson(7), Byrnes(8), Duchscherer(8), Ellis(9))
Round 12+ - 6 (Bradford(13), Melhuse(13), Harden(17), Thomas(19), Calero(27), Harikkala(34))
Domestic F.A.- 1 (Kielty)
Foreign F.A. - 6 (Cruz, Dotel, Durazo, Rincon, Scutaro, Yabu)
The A's currently have more players drafted in the first round than in the next ten rounds combined. So while the claim that no stars at all come from the lower rounds is a gross overstatement, the underlying idea is sound: talent is highly concentrated in the first round, and players from the lower rounds are very unlikely to become major league stars, or even everyday players. With this in mind, taking high-risk/high-return players with some of those picks isn't a bad idea.

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