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Joe, Billy and what 'moneyball' means

Joe Morgan and others love to attack Beane, who as we all know wrote every word of 'Moneyball'. People then get into a big fuss over whether the Red Sox and Dodgers are really playing moneyball.

So what does it really mean?

Star-divide

The problem is that 'Moneyball' has come to mean three things.

  1.  In the book, Moneyball means trying to exploit market inefficiencies caused by people's irrational behavior. How to do this changes from year to year. Basically, getting a bargain because your competitors aren't seeing as clearly. The book focuses on the A's because it's more fun to write about the underdogs pulling the wool over the eyes of the rich guys, but you don't have to be poor to get a bargain.
  2. At the time the book was written, the big inefficiency in baseball was that people over- or under-rate talents and strategies, due to history and the anti-intellectual, anti-data culture. So some use MB to refer to the use of data and evidence to drive decisions, not intuition.
  3. More specifically, at the time the book was written, OBP and OPS were undervalued, pitching performance was measured poorly, and sacrifices and small ball were overused.  Some people also use 'MB' to refer to anti-smallball and pro-OPS management.
That means, Moneyball is not about winning with the lowest budget, it means spending your money wisely.  The A's play MB because they have to. The Red Sox play it because they are smart and like bargains. The Dodgers play it because their owner wants to make more money.

#3 is out of date now, as enough teams value OBP to make it not a bargain anymore. #2 is still very relevant, but I think we've hit a tipping point. Most teams are using (or at least tracking) the whole array of data.

In my mind, the A's and Beane are all about #1. They can still squeeze mileage out of #2 (measure fielding better, measure importance of K rate, maybe measure injury rate better), but ultimately, they have to think even outside that box. As people catch up to data trawling, maybe there are better ways to scout people live that go beyond the stats and loosy-goosy five-tool checklists... and other ideas we can't guess at.

Joe Morgan doesn't like Moneyball because of #2 and #3. That means he gets to be wrong in two complementary ways. He thinks data and 'computers' are stupid. No comment on that, except that you can't take someone seriously who thinks the Red Sox aren't data-driven. Joe also hates that MB argues that the conventional wisdom is very often wrong. Joe is one of the best 2B's in the game, and he's got a lot of practical wisdom. As a player it made sense to think in terms of heart and love and passion and wanting it. Of course he feels threatened when people point out that a lot of what he 'knows' is counter-productive in actually assembling and running a team.

To sum up. 'Moneyball' has lost meaning as a specific term. Figure out what people mean when they use it and use a different phrase as soon as possible. I hope the A's keep on pushing the innovation.  And don't let Joe Morgan buy the A's.

ps. I'd love to read an analysis of how the Twins do it. Their Moneyball (#1) take is different but works as well as ours...

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Stupid Joe
Joe Morgan is an absolute idiot. The fact that he is such a prominent "baseball person", and has never even bothered read "Moneyball" says alot about his low intelligence level.

Maybe he can't read? Or maybe he is so filled with hatred towards the A's he refuses to read it for the sake of some personal statement. The truth is that in this world you should always strive for personal enlightenment through knowledge. Books have alot to do with that, especially when they are about one of the hottest topics in your, and I use the word loosely, profession?

Regardless of the "philosophy" of the book, and a persons opinion of it, it is first and foremost a great baseball story. The fact that Old Joe won't even waste his time to read it is so low-brow and classless that he must be an uneducated in-bred hillbilly. He should be fired for being so pig-headed and unable to do his job without the proper qualifications.

Does everyone know what his side business is?

He's owns a beer distibution business in the Bay Area. Coors, I believe.

If I still lived there, I would boycott his products and ask others to do the same. Maybe we should start a movement right here:

"Boycott Joe's Beer!!!"

Lord Vader... ...yesss massster? ...RISE!!!

by Force on May 6, 2005 12:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

coors
i boycott coors for those radio ads last year, especially that pick-up line one; "stop drop and roll cause your on FIRE!"

good points apricot, there area a number of inefficiences in baseball and the A's did just pick one to exploit.  it is about spending your money wisely, more specifically it's about minimizing your risk.  when you can't afford established players you look to other ways to define success.  i too would be curious to learn a little more about the twins' "moneyball" approach.  

i heard it on the new 610 AM, hell is full of red sox fans.

by JMC on May 6, 2005 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joe is just a lazy faded athlete
He's not going to read a book when he can make money at some corporate appearance.  And putting aside his ignorance about Moneyball and hatred of the A's, the guy is a god-awful announcer.  

I tried counting the number of times he said "you know" one game but stopped when it reached 25 in the 3rd inning.  

by boilerdan on May 6, 2005 12:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Can't Change A Tiger's Stripes
Joe Morgan will never buy into any baseball theories other than the one's he believes in. I really could care less what he thinks and the fact that he seems biased against the A's makes me sort of proud.

What I don't get is why Morgan seems like such an angry type of guy? He is in the HOF, has won a couple of WS rings and likely makes a good buck from ESPN. Still, you would think the world has screwed him over.

Oh well, there are more important things to worry about huh?

by RudiFan on May 6, 2005 1:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oversimplifying 'Moneyball'
To hear some baseball announcers and commentators talk, you'd think Moneyball's sole definition was #3: OBP and homers. And they think this strategy was invented when the book came out, forgetting that walks and homers were the battle cry of Earl Weaver decades ago.

I believe #1 is what "Moneyball" is all about, and it would be nice of the folks who are supposedly the voices of the game would talk more about that when referring to the term rather than oversimplifying things by saying "it's on-base percentage."

I found this analysis of the Twins and A's on the Cincinnati Enquirer's site. It's about two years old, but some of what it says, I think, is still relevant:

http://reds.enquirer.com/2003/10/05/wwwred1a.html

Eric Chavez: The last former Huntsville Star with the A's...

by FormerHuntsvilleStar on May 6, 2005 3:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Joe Morgan is
to baseball, what Bill Walton is to basketball.  Both were great players, both are terrible announcers.  (Throw Tim McCarver in there too for good measure).

by timed exposure on May 6, 2005 3:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Are you saying
Tim McCarver was a great player?????

by guapobob on May 6, 2005 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

absolutely...McCarver
was a superb catcher, though just a mediocre hitter, and is one of those rare players who played in four decades (with a little help from Steve Carlton).  He was great in the '64 series, hitting .478. But now he's a lousy announcer (though HIS book- can't remember the name of it now though I read it- is pretty good).

by Brian in 317 on May 7, 2005 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Tim McCarver's Baseball for Brain Surgeons..
..Other Fans : Understanding and Interpreting the Game So You Can Watch It Like a Pro"

Agreed -- that was a good book.  My only problem with it was that I could hear his distinctive voice in my head the whole time I was reading it.  :-/

by sarajune13 on May 7, 2005 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Morgan is irrelevant
I am sure that at one time or another he was rebuffed by the A's and thus despite his Oakland roots he detests the A's.  He is also an NL apologist, and can't stand the idea of the HR and long ball being valued.  He always talks small ball but ignores the obvious fact that the Big Red machine was all about long ball.  Maybe he is still smarting from the spanking the Big Red Machine took in '72 by the A's.  In that time the Big Red machine was supposed to be the best team in baseball, they won 1 world series, the A's won 3 straight.

by china bob on May 6, 2005 5:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

exactly...
"He always talks small ball but ignores the obvious fact that the Big Red machine was all about long ball."

Yeah, Joe definitely proved you right one White Sox game earlier this year, I believe it was against contrasting Moneyballers the Twins.  (Yeah, pretty sure it was the Sunday night game where Santana was starting.)  Anyway, he started talking about Ozzie Guillen's groundbreaking "smartball" philosophy, an idea which he found so humorous he must have repeated at least 4 times that "it's not smallball, it's smartball."  Joe then went on to praise the White Sox for their assembly of a team that, to paraphrase, "can beat you in a different way every night, because you're not always going to hit 5 home runs a night."  His argument, already suffering from the fact that the White Sox aren't ever going to hit 5 home runs a night this year, plummeted further when he then drew the parallel to the Big Red Machine (ie he claimed both were teams that were really good at scoring runs in different ways).  Whoever was in the booth with him called him out on that, reminding him of the power on that team, but Joe continued to defend his position, that the Big Red Machine succeeded because of its, eh, resourcefulness.  All Morgan-haters were vindicated that night by Santana's dominance of the smartballers.

All that being said, I am not a Morgan-hater.  For all his flaws, his smooth approach fits baseball well.  When I'm at a game, I liked to be riled up, but when I'm watching on TV, I'm usually relaxing, unless the A's or money or a fantasy baseball title are involved.  So I don't mind Joe, even if he's probably not deserving of the Emmy he recently won.

Don't ask me to buy you a wristwatch Don't ask me to buy you a Sony Car Discman Don't ask me to give you car fare Don't ask me for a cotton picking thing"

by Cutthemullet on May 6, 2005 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i blame the media
its like every where, the media thinks they got moneyball figured out "beane wants OBP,SLG, and he waits for the 3-run homer. thats what moneyball's all about!" i hate it when these "analysts" think that moneyball is that simple. they see it as a baseball book, but its a business story involving a baseball team :very different.

thats why joe morgan's opinions and commentary is so irrelevent. how can you commment on a book you've never even read? and for the last frikkin time,joe, beane did NOT write the book! my gawd, this guy's dense...

by stabino on May 6, 2005 8:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Baseball for Dummies
is my favorite Dummies book, because it was written by a dummy

by kent on May 6, 2005 8:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Moneyball for me is just like...
...Microeconomic theory.  It's like determining isoquants and calculating the marginal rates of technical substitution.  Good stuff!

It's a damned good thing that Lewis didn't get into the profit side of the business.  Fans do not seem to give one lick of sh_t about how well the owners do.  And the readers who hover just above Joe Morgan - with regard to their curiosity - would have been completely overmatched by it.

I think that fans should care about how well the owners do, though.  The better the owners do, the more likely it is that the fans get a better baseball team - one committed to winning!

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on May 7, 2005 6:15 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Think back
Some of you have done a good job pointing out the type team Cincy was in the 70's but for those of you old enough to remember think back to the type player Morgan was. Yes, speed and stolen bases were a part of his game but he drew a buttload of walks and hit for good power, especially for a 2B during that era. He hit in the two hole most of the time and I don't remember him giving himself up very often to advance runners. So as bad as I hate to say it Morgan was a stereotypical "Moneyballer". In fact the trade that brought him to the Reds turned out to be pretty lopsided. Morgan, Menke, Billingham, for Helms and Lee May. Maybe the Reds took advantage of some market enequalities.

by linden on May 7, 2005 6:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

His lifetime OBP
was .392.  Not bad!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morgajo02.shtml

"Put a Milo on him."
-Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on May 7, 2005 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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