Joe, Billy and what 'moneyball' means
Joe Morgan and others love to attack Beane, who as we all know wrote every word of 'Moneyball'. People then get into a big fuss over whether the Red Sox and Dodgers are really playing moneyball.
So what does it really mean?
The problem is that 'Moneyball' has come to mean three things.
- In the book, Moneyball means trying to exploit market inefficiencies caused by people's irrational behavior. How to do this changes from year to year. Basically, getting a bargain because your competitors aren't seeing as clearly. The book focuses on the A's because it's more fun to write about the underdogs pulling the wool over the eyes of the rich guys, but you don't have to be poor to get a bargain.
- At the time the book was written, the big inefficiency in baseball was that people over- or under-rate talents and strategies, due to history and the anti-intellectual, anti-data culture. So some use MB to refer to the use of data and evidence to drive decisions, not intuition.
- More specifically, at the time the book was written, OBP and OPS were undervalued, pitching performance was measured poorly, and sacrifices and small ball were overused. Some people also use 'MB' to refer to anti-smallball and pro-OPS management.
#3 is out of date now, as enough teams value OBP to make it not a bargain anymore. #2 is still very relevant, but I think we've hit a tipping point. Most teams are using (or at least tracking) the whole array of data.
In my mind, the A's and Beane are all about #1. They can still squeeze mileage out of #2 (measure fielding better, measure importance of K rate, maybe measure injury rate better), but ultimately, they have to think even outside that box. As people catch up to data trawling, maybe there are better ways to scout people live that go beyond the stats and loosy-goosy five-tool checklists... and other ideas we can't guess at.
Joe Morgan doesn't like Moneyball because of #2 and #3. That means he gets to be wrong in two complementary ways. He thinks data and 'computers' are stupid. No comment on that, except that you can't take someone seriously who thinks the Red Sox aren't data-driven. Joe also hates that MB argues that the conventional wisdom is very often wrong. Joe is one of the best 2B's in the game, and he's got a lot of practical wisdom. As a player it made sense to think in terms of heart and love and passion and wanting it. Of course he feels threatened when people point out that a lot of what he 'knows' is counter-productive in actually assembling and running a team.
To sum up. 'Moneyball' has lost meaning as a specific term. Figure out what people mean when they use it and use a different phrase as soon as possible. I hope the A's keep on pushing the innovation. And don't let Joe Morgan buy the A's.
ps. I'd love to read an analysis of how the Twins do it. Their Moneyball (#1) take is different but works as well as ours...
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16 comments
Comments
Stupid Joe
Maybe he can't read? Or maybe he is so filled with hatred towards the A's he refuses to read it for the sake of some personal statement. The truth is that in this world you should always strive for personal enlightenment through knowledge. Books have alot to do with that, especially when they are about one of the hottest topics in your, and I use the word loosely, profession?
Regardless of the "philosophy" of the book, and a persons opinion of it, it is first and foremost a great baseball story. The fact that Old Joe won't even waste his time to read it is so low-brow and classless that he must be an uneducated in-bred hillbilly. He should be fired for being so pig-headed and unable to do his job without the proper qualifications.
Does everyone know what his side business is?
He's owns a beer distibution business in the Bay Area. Coors, I believe.
If I still lived there, I would boycott his products and ask others to do the same. Maybe we should start a movement right here:
"Boycott Joe's Beer!!!"
by Force on May 6, 2005 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
coors
good points apricot, there area a number of inefficiences in baseball and the A's did just pick one to exploit. it is about spending your money wisely, more specifically it's about minimizing your risk. when you can't afford established players you look to other ways to define success. i too would be curious to learn a little more about the twins' "moneyball" approach.
by JMC on May 6, 2005 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joe is just a lazy faded athlete
I tried counting the number of times he said "you know" one game but stopped when it reached 25 in the 3rd inning.
by boilerdan on May 6, 2005 12:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Can't Change A Tiger's Stripes
What I don't get is why Morgan seems like such an angry type of guy? He is in the HOF, has won a couple of WS rings and likely makes a good buck from ESPN. Still, you would think the world has screwed him over.
Oh well, there are more important things to worry about huh?
by RudiFan on May 6, 2005 1:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oversimplifying 'Moneyball'
I believe #1 is what "Moneyball" is all about, and it would be nice of the folks who are supposedly the voices of the game would talk more about that when referring to the term rather than oversimplifying things by saying "it's on-base percentage."
I found this analysis of the Twins and A's on the Cincinnati Enquirer's site. It's about two years old, but some of what it says, I think, is still relevant:
http://reds.enquirer.com/2003/10/05/wwwred1a.html
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on May 6, 2005 3:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe Morgan is
by timed exposure on May 6, 2005 3:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you saying
by guapobob on May 6, 2005 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely...McCarver
by Brian in 317 on May 7, 2005 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Tim McCarver's Baseball for Brain Surgeons..
Agreed -- that was a good book. My only problem with it was that I could hear his distinctive voice in my head the whole time I was reading it. :-/
by sarajune13 on May 7, 2005 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morgan is irrelevant
by china bob on May 6, 2005 5:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
exactly...
Yeah, Joe definitely proved you right one White Sox game earlier this year, I believe it was against contrasting Moneyballers the Twins. (Yeah, pretty sure it was the Sunday night game where Santana was starting.) Anyway, he started talking about Ozzie Guillen's groundbreaking "smartball" philosophy, an idea which he found so humorous he must have repeated at least 4 times that "it's not smallball, it's smartball." Joe then went on to praise the White Sox for their assembly of a team that, to paraphrase, "can beat you in a different way every night, because you're not always going to hit 5 home runs a night." His argument, already suffering from the fact that the White Sox aren't ever going to hit 5 home runs a night this year, plummeted further when he then drew the parallel to the Big Red Machine (ie he claimed both were teams that were really good at scoring runs in different ways). Whoever was in the booth with him called him out on that, reminding him of the power on that team, but Joe continued to defend his position, that the Big Red Machine succeeded because of its, eh, resourcefulness. All Morgan-haters were vindicated that night by Santana's dominance of the smartballers.
All that being said, I am not a Morgan-hater. For all his flaws, his smooth approach fits baseball well. When I'm at a game, I liked to be riled up, but when I'm watching on TV, I'm usually relaxing, unless the A's or money or a fantasy baseball title are involved. So I don't mind Joe, even if he's probably not deserving of the Emmy he recently won.
by Cutthemullet on May 6, 2005 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i blame the media
thats why joe morgan's opinions and commentary is so irrelevent. how can you commment on a book you've never even read? and for the last frikkin time,joe, beane did NOT write the book! my gawd, this guy's dense...
by stabino on May 6, 2005 8:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Baseball for Dummies
by kent on May 6, 2005 8:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Moneyball for me is just like...
It's a damned good thing that Lewis didn't get into the profit side of the business. Fans do not seem to give one lick of sh_t about how well the owners do. And the readers who hover just above Joe Morgan - with regard to their curiosity - would have been completely overmatched by it.
I think that fans should care about how well the owners do, though. The better the owners do, the more likely it is that the fans get a better baseball team - one committed to winning!
by LowcountryJoe on May 7, 2005 6:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Think back
by linden on May 7, 2005 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
His lifetime OBP
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morgajo02.shtml
-Billy Beane
by kaweahkaweah on May 7, 2005 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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