A's win probability graphs?

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 2:26 PM PDT Comment 15 comments

i now go to lookout landing and mccovey chronicles every fews days just to check out the win expectancy graphs.
does anybody on AN know how to do these? if so, please do them for a's games!

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ive played around with these..

I'll follow up with a longer post when i have some time

by Jack on May 17, 2005 2:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

do you have a program

or something along those lines to produce them?

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 17, 2005 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Etch-A-Sketch

I think the dude breaks out the Etch-A-Sketch and some Chiba-Chiba to create those.

by jubjub on May 17, 2005 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

All you need

...is an Excel spreadsheet and this link.

Enjoy!

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

by JeffS on May 17, 2005 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

I just needed something new here, since the season had started ...

by devo on May 17, 2005 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

are you going to try doing it, devo?

"Popcorn pictures have always ruled. Why do people go see them? Why is the public so stupid? That's not my fault." --George Lucas on Star Wars

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

jeff, how are you getting the numbers

for each player?

"Popcorn pictures have always ruled. Why do people go see them? Why is the public so stupid? That's not my fault." --George Lucas on Star Wars

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: jeff, how are you getting the numbers

I'll answer your question with an example.

Let's say the Mariners hit in the bottom of the first. With none out and none on, their Win Expectancy is .589. If Ichiro singles, it goes up to .632. So you give Ichiro credit for a .043 increase. All you do is add that stuff up for each player over an entire game.

Lookout Landing

by JeffS on May 17, 2005 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah

makes sense, it just seems like a lot to keep track of.

"Popcorn pictures have always ruled. Why do people go see them? Why is the public so stupid? That's not my fault." --George Lucas on Star Wars

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: oh yeah

It's pretty easy if you do it all while watching the game. Even if you wait and do everything at once, it only takes 5-10 minutes.

Lookout Landing

by JeffS on May 17, 2005 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That graph above

Was that made using Studes (from Hardball Times) excel spreadsheet? I have it around but haven't quite figured out how to get it working yet.

by artgibroni on May 17, 2005 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question

Why do the numbers for home and visitor with zero out in the top of the 1st not equal 1?

by jubjub on May 17, 2005 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's all because of that tie

at the all star game. j/k

"Popcorn pictures have always ruled. Why do people go see them? Why is the public so stupid? That's not my fault." --George Lucas on Star Wars

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

a more serious answer

it still may not be the right one, but there's no top/bottom, just inning.
maybe visitors are .484 with 0 out 0 on in the top of the first, and the home team is .589 with 0 out 0 on in the bottom of the first, because the visiting team dropped from .484 to .411 after not scoring in the first.

"Popcorn pictures have always ruled. Why do people go see them? Why is the public so stupid? That's not my fault." --George Lucas on Star Wars

by xbhaskarx on May 17, 2005 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs