Shea Hillebrand as trade possibility

by GangGreen23 on Oct 26, 2005 12:30 PM PDT

One of the players that has been under-valued in the game is Shea Hillebrand. This guy has been a solid hitter throughout his career with Boston, Arizona, and now Toronto.

Check out his recent stats: in 2005, he hit .291 with 18 hrs and 82 rbi's. Last year he hit .310 with 15 hrs and 80 rbi's. In fact, in the last 4 years, the guy has averaged 20 homers, 80+ rbi's and bats .285.

Factoring in that he bats right-handed and can back up the infield corners for the A's as well as DH and he makes just too much sense to fill the void on the A's.

Also, he now appears to be the odd man out in Toronto, as they have Corey Koskie at 3B, Russ Adams as SS, Orlando Hudson at 2B, and Erick Hinske at 1B. The Blue Jays are trying to find a spot for Aaron Hill, a SS-3B type they drafted in the 1st Round in 2003. Since Hillebrand is probably the worst glove out of those players, he might be the guy dealt for more pitching.

Please cast your vote!

Poll

Should A's trade for Shea Hillebrand?

No, we only have to wait one more year until Ethier or Barton are ready.

3 votes

No, let's get Adam Dunn for Kennedy, Meyer, Cruz, and Jairo.

10 votes

Yes, he's right-handed, has a solid BA, and we need power like his.

4 votes

Yes, Beane needs to exploit his relationship with Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi.

1 votes

Yes, Hillebrand could be our everyday DH and backup the infield corners.

6 votes

Yes, we can't go another season with Kielty and Hatteberg.

7 votes

Yes, his salary is a modest $4 Million per year. Good bang for the buck.

3 votes

No, we should just hope Kielty or Ginter can fill the DH role.

2 votes

No, let's hang on to our minor league prospects and not trade them.

7 votes

No, Hillebrand costs too much and his salary keeps escalating.

11 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I wouldn't mind, but

he's notorious for not walking. Just not a moneyball guy. After watching Podsednik does anyone else here wish we had a real fast guy that put pressure on pitchers?

by RunRickeyRun on Oct 26, 2005 12:54 PM PDT reply actions

Absolutely (if he can get on base)

Hard to steal second from the bench, as they say.

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Oct 26, 2005 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions

not a lot of walks, but still decent OBP

its true that Hillebrand doesn't take a lot of walks, but he makes up for that with a lot of hits and still maintains a decent OB% around .350

Hillebrand's appeal to me is that he is a proven commodity, as opposed to say throwing kielty out there every day.

Also, I don't think we would have to give up much to obtain him since the Blue Jays need to find a place for Aaron Hill and trim salary if they are going to go after AJ Burnett in the free agent market. There are rumors that Burnett wants to be reunited with his old pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, who is now the Blue Jays pitching coach.

GangGreen23

by GangGreen23 on Oct 26, 2005 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions

We had one in Damon

but he was never allowed to steal on his own. Remember, stealing bases isnt a moneyball thing to do. Stealing is giving away outs.

President of the Brent Gates Fan Club

by SoCal As Fan on Oct 26, 2005 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions

The giving away outs thing

comes from getting caught. The success rate of a base stealer is what moneyball was concearned with. Base stealers were/are overrated because what was a successful steal rate to an old head was far less than a stathead's break-even point. I think a successful risk reward was said to be about a 75% sucess rate, but the point is that there is a difference of opinion on what constitutes a good risk. Running just to run though isn't smart. (I think the team just anchored Damon and Durham as a result of organizational rule, but not because steals, on their face are a bad idea.)

by StewFan on Oct 26, 2005 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

We do:

Herrera!!!

Heck, even Crosby can do it not to mention Money Penny.

"Carlos Pena, Staring Into the Sun Looked Like He Was Stoned On Acid" - Bill King

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 26, 2005 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, I'd argue the opposite

He's always oscillated between slightly under-valued and slightly over-valued, and is, thanks to his "successful" season in '05, about to get strongly over-valued. His OBP is highly AVG-dependent, he doesn't have all that much power for a corner IF, and he's not an especially strong fielder.

JP made a shrewd move buying Hillebrand "low" and then giving him enough PT to amass some quasi-relevant counting stats to drive his value up as a trading chit.

No thanks.

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 26, 2005 1:01 PM PDT reply actions

Jay Payton without the defense

It's kind of funny that someone would suggest this at a time when a bunch of other people are complaining about Payton's option being picked up. Their career numbers:
Payton .282/.330/.443, 18 HR per 162 games
Hillenbrand .288/.327/.448, 18 HR per 162 games
And, in fact, baseball-reference lists Payton as the most similar player to Hillenbrand, and vice-versa. The difference is that Payton is a top-notch defensive outfielder, while Hillenbrand is basically a DH. Kielty's numbers also aren't that far off: .254/.355/.410.

So I'd pass on Hillenbrand. He's not a horrible player, but isn't really worth the money he'll command, and is certainly not the big bat that people are pining for.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Oct 26, 2005 1:02 PM PDT reply actions

"the big bat that people are pining for"

You mean, like the photo of Blum in last night's WS game thread?

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 26, 2005 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions

nah

His wood is probably ash, not pine. And we all know how the ladies on AN love a player with great ash.

"They're like sheep...Baaaaaah" - Bill King

by andeux on Oct 26, 2005 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions

AN ladies love ...

... the Evil Dead trilogy?

Bill loved butter.

by monkeyball on Oct 26, 2005 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

maybe not

but I sure do. Bruce Campbell is god. WWBCD?

I <3 Macha. I trust Beane. Blanton isn't fat. Go A's.

by pbruins92 on Oct 26, 2005 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions

"Say, what gives?"

(It's a lot easier when you understand some of the language of the cultists, by the way.) - salb918

by monkeyball on Oct 26, 2005 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh yeah

"Good, Bad, I'm the guy with the gun."

I <3 Macha. I trust Beane. Blanton isn't fat. Go A's.

by pbruins92 on Oct 26, 2005 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions

The best answer choice is missing

No, let's find someone else.

Hard work never hurt anyone, but I'm not taking any chances.

by Alameda Greg on Oct 26, 2005 2:12 PM PDT reply actions

Jairo and Robnett for:

Lane.

I think that Jason Lane would work out really well here.

"Carlos Pena, Staring Into the Sun Looked Like He Was Stoned On Acid" - Bill King

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 26, 2005 2:13 PM PDT reply actions

Now, this target I like.

Jairo has fallen, but I'm sure he still has market value. Robnett and him for Lane, I'd jump at, but I think we'd have to give up another prospect.

Lane had a good year (read: is a proven ML player) and while Robnett may be ready as soon as late next year, why would Hou look to dump Lane (which is how it would look from their P.O.V.?

by StewFan on Oct 26, 2005 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

I know...They need Lane as much as we do:

It is just that he loves the A's. he is a huge fan and would be an instant fan favorite, that is NOT ERIC BYRNES-Like!!!

They will need some SP and a second baseman soon...

Hmmm???

"Carlos Pena, Staring Into the Sun Looked Like He Was Stoned On Acid" - Bill King

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 26, 2005 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

If they're smart

Biggio plays OF next year and 2b is taken care of for the next decade ...

I'm not sure if they're smart, though.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 26, 2005 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Hmmm?

I'd like Biggio on our team too.

"Carlos Pena, Staring Into the Sun Looked Like He Was Stoned On Acid" - Bill King

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 26, 2005 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions

He might be the only guy on their team

who is untouchable ...

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 26, 2005 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe Payton (with a bit of $) and Robnett.

But then I'd be concearned with Kotsay's back all year. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't take Kielty. I just think ML talent going the other way would be necessary.

by StewFan on Oct 26, 2005 2:29 PM PDT reply actions

JP loves this guy, wants to sign him

by bigelephant on Oct 26, 2005 5:48 PM PDT reply actions

I like this idea

I think we need more guys who have a heavily AVG-dependent OBP. I'm tired of having guys with high OBPs that are driven almost entirely by the number of walks they take.

Look: Walks and hits count the same for OBP purposes, but do they have the same practical effect? No. A hit is better than a walk in most cases.

Runner on 2nd, two outs. A single brings that runner home. A walk leaves him scratching his ass at 2nd base.

Runner on 1st, one out. A single can move that runner to 3rd base with one out, meaning a sac fly brings that runner home. A walk moves that runner to 2nd base, and leaves the A's in need of a single.

Plus, guys with high averages tend to be guys who are resourceful with the bat... meaning they can move runners over from 2nd to 3rd with none out, or execute hit-and-runs. Guys who walk a lot tend to have good eyes and big swings. Of course I'm over-generalizing, but you get the point.

Anyway, I like the idea of bringing in a guy like Hillenbrand. I think he's a good "cheap" option with a track record. As for whether he over-achieved this year, his BABIP was approximately .310, meaning his AVG wasn't driven by luck (league average is about .300). In other words, we'd be getting a guy who would probably put up .290-20-80-80 for $4M. Our other option right now is Scott Horribleberg, who would put up .270-8-60-60 for $2.7M. I'll take Hillenbrand in a heartbeat.

As for the defensive issues: Whothefuckcares? He's going to be a DH or a 1B for us. He'd rarely play 3B, unless Chavez gets hurt, and even then the thought of playing Scutaro at 3B is even more frightening.

The only issue with Hillenbrand is what it takes to get him. JP knows our system too well to take a flier on a guy like Jairo. If we packaged Suzuki and Jairo, would that get Hillenbrand? Maybe.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 26, 2005 5:52 PM PDT reply actions

I totally agree with you,

Uncle C, which is why I think G. Anderson (pre 2005) has gotten a bad rap for being a high average guy who doesn't walk a lot. Better than a 2005 Swisher who walks but doesn't hit a lot.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 26, 2005 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions

The issue is with GA

is that he was always overrated because of his RBI when he made so many outs at the plate. You're right in that he IS very valuable when he hits for a high average; the problem is that once the average is gone, he's all of a sudden just a guy with a 308 OBP.

The other issue with players who have their value tied to their batting averages is that it has been shown the average fluctuates much more from year to year than does patience. Picking up a player like Hillenbrand is an awful risk: if he hits 270, you've got a a low-OBP sinkhole in the lineup. Like Jay Payton.

Nick Swisher had a higher OBP and higher SLG than an admittedly injured GA did this year.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 26, 2005 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I assume the reason

average fluctuates more is that some years more line drives are "at 'em" balls, some years more bloops fall in. But unless Angel Hernandez is umpiring, the strike zone is about the same every year.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 26, 2005 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you've more or less

got it. Having said that, though, batters do usually show the ability to hit for a high (or low) average on balls in play. Smoked line drives are more likely to fall in than bloop hits, Oakland A's fuzzy-chinned catchers nothwithstanding.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 26, 2005 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Injured

Note: Hillenbrand has a ligament injury in his left hand.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 26, 2005 5:53 PM PDT reply actions

AVG Fluctuates Year-to-Year

But OBP is always overvalued thanks to "Moneyball."

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 26, 2005 6:34 PM PDT reply actions

Has Jason Kendall Ever Smoked Anything?

Weed? Maybe. Cigarettes? Possibly.

A line drive: Bahahahahahahaha!!

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 26, 2005 7:28 PM PDT reply actions

A ham, perchance?

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 26, 2005 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Smoked Ham

If Jason Kendall tried to smoke a ham, it'd probably end up being a can of corn.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 26, 2005 8:14 PM PDT reply actions

HA!

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Oct 26, 2005 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions

My favorite moment this year

was when Kendall's wife showed up in the left-field bleachers selling gift bags for charity--and I realized that she had made it to the left-field bleachers but her husband hadn't.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 26, 2005 9:47 PM PDT reply actions

I like the Hillenbrand idea

He'll definately not play 3rd base, so he'll be at first or DH. Its not hard to play defense at first compared to other positions so i think he'd fit in nicely. He's also a notorious hot starter, so he could help the A's get off to the great start we missed this year.

I rebuilt your mom last night.

by SLOtown on Oct 26, 2005 11:30 PM PDT reply actions