The "Lefty-Righty" Question

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 8:33 AM PDT in News

Looking at the A's lineup, you see a middle of the lineup heavy on left-handed hitters (Kotsay, Chavez, D. Johnson) and a hitter (Swisher) whose major league numbers have been far better against RHP. This would lead you to believe the A's need a right-handed bat, more than a left-handed bat, in the middle of the order.

On the other hand, looking at the 2005 stats you see a team that produced much better numbers against left-handed pitching (.271 AVG and .346 OBP) than against right-handed pitching (.259 AVG and .324 OBP). This would lead you to believe the A's need a left-handed bat, more than a right-handed bat, in the middle of the order.

Aaack! Does not compute! Help!!! <runs screaming in three directions at once, throws chair> In trying to sort out this apparent contradiction, let me suggest one possibility I haven't really heard much on AN: Perhaps the A's success vs. LHP in 2005 was somewhat of an anomaly. For example...

Perhaps the A's faced a relatively high percentage of their lefty opponents during the stretch when they were beating everyone, and faced a relatively high percentage of their righty opponents during the stretches when they were beating no one.
Perhaps a couple hitters hit LHP significantly better than they will most seasons in their career.
Perhaps their excellent winning percentage against lefty starters was bolstered by a handful of pitchers they "own"--Mark Buehrle leaps to mind, and to some extent Sabathia.
Perhaps the A's simply had more well-pitched games on days they faced a lefty starter than on days they faced a righty starter, and produced a superior W-L record against lefty starters for some reasons independent of their hitters.

Key additions notwithstanding, for any combination of these possible reasons, I would kind of expect the A's to be a little weaker in 2006 against LHP and a little stronger in 2006 against RHP. The presumption seems to be that, "the current lineup is better equipped against LHP than it is against RHP." My point is: I'm not sure this is necessarily true.

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another point to consider is that

some left handed hitters do well against lefty pitchers (and some right handed hitters do well against righty pitchers), for whatever reason. It's not always a given that a batter will do worse against a pitcher that pitches from the same side. In fact, I've always wondered whether some lefty hitters, for example, might not actually see more of the pre-throw movement of a lefty pitcher, and therefore more accurately guess which pitch he's going to get.

In other words, it might be better to look at how a batter does against lefty and righty pitchers in thinking about what kinds of batters the A's should look to add, rather than whether they hit lefty or righty.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 8:39 AM PDT reply actions

Still, since we face more RHP during the season

I'd really prefer a guy who mashed RHP

... and it was at that point that I realized that by thinking outside the box, I had simply walked inside a cube...

by Zonis on Oct 22, 2005 8:39 AM PDT reply actions

more rhp than lhp in the world

I'd rather hit RHP because you'll see more of them. Who cares about the one specialist in the bullpen, you might see him once a game. Find a way to beat the RHP that started the game and he stays in the bullpen.

by dannyboy @ Athletics Nation on Oct 23, 2005 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions

solution

find a RH hitter who is good verse lefties and righties equally, and is also cheap. Craig Wilson?

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 8:42 AM PDT reply actions

All good points--

One of the things I like about Huff is the remarkable consistency in his L-R splits.

One reason I think some lefties can hit well against LHP is that while the breaking balls may give them more trouble, most LHP won't throw their changeup to lefty hitters, and often that takes away one of their best pitches.

Then there are the bizarre splits, like Crosby hitting barely .200 vs LHP in 2004 but over .300 vs LHP in 2005.

So it's less of a science and more of a...whatever that thing that isn't science, but completes the analogy, is.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions

Huff has been a favorite of mine

for a couple of years. I'd be pleased if the A's could acquire him.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions

Taco.

Less of a science and more of a taco. Mmmmmmmm, must go to taco truck.........

Barry and the "Intangibles"

by Duke of left field on Oct 22, 2005 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes

Some LH hitters hit LHP better than RHP. Some RH hitters hit RHP better than LHP.

It is not a rule that lefties always do better v. rights and vice versa. That's what Ken Macha and Tony LaRussa would like you to believe, but it's not always the case.

Look at Hideki Matsui -- his career average v. LHP is 10 points higher than his career average v. RHP. Wade Boggs used to poke LHP breaking stuff off the Green Monster... These guys don't just fall off the assembly line: "Left-handed hitter, hits righties, not lefties."

What we need to do is find a guy that will complement the other players in our lineup... a guy who has a little more pop than Sally Hatteberg.

by Uncle Charlie on Oct 23, 2005 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions

Frank Thomas?

Did anybody hear Peter Gammons yesterday mentioning the possibility that Thomas could end up in Oakland next year? Gammons seems to think Thomas is gonna come back and have a great year. Makes ya wanna say, "Hmmmm...."

by skigurl on Oct 22, 2005 9:04 AM PDT reply actions

hey if he's got one good year left

it would be nice to have it as an A, of course.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions

I like the idea...

...if Billy can't get who he wants through a trade or free agency(most unlikely scenario, IMO).

I've seen people bring up Erubiel Durazo as a possible one-year solution. If that's what we're looking for, than I prefer Thomas.

"How much room do I have to cover out here?" -- Kotsay

by Sharon on Oct 22, 2005 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions

what I meant:

when I wrote "free agency" was getting a Brian Giles type on the market. I think it's unlikely.

"How much room do I have to cover out here?" -- Kotsay

by Sharon on Oct 22, 2005 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions

if Durazo is healthy and will sign for less $$

in a one year contract (with performance incentives), he would likely be less risky than Thomas. Keep in mind that Thomas is older and has a foot injury that -- unless healed -- will keep him from being a productive player.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

When is Durazo expected to be ready?

"How much room do I have to cover out here?" -- Kotsay

by Sharon on Oct 22, 2005 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Some projections have him "hitting" ...

...2 months into the season and that is
2 long to wait.

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 22, 2005 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions

I had read that he should be ready

for the start of the season, but if that's not true then he wouldn't be healthy enough for the kind of contract I have described.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions

The same Gammons who spend...

2 seasons saying that Harden will be a closer?

by Olijerez77 on Oct 22, 2005 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions

You never know ...

he might still be proven right ... Harden's health might just send him to the 'pen.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 22, 2005 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

How is Harden more valuable?

28 to 30 starts of 5 - 7 innings?
50 relief appearances?

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions

28-30

But what if it's 130 innings as a starter or 70 innings as a reliever.

I'd say the latter. I'm not saying the A's should do it. Clearly he has more value as a starter and they should keep them there unless he proves he can't stay healthy.

I'm just saying it's far too soon to say that Gammons has been proven wrong.

Monkeyball Note: if the A's postgame radio host was an evil supervillain, his official Evil Supervillain Laugh would be "Buan-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!")

by devo on Oct 23, 2005 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey! What is so bad about either?

A bullpen of Harden, Street, Calero, & perhaps Dotel?

WOW!

...Still, Harden's a starter until proven not.

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Thomas has some split concerns

Frank Thomas sounds like a tremendous idea. Right-handed, great plate discipline, slugger. But even at a reduced price -- what, $6M? -- that might be too rich for the A's considering all the money tied up now. And then you look closer at Thomas' stat breakdown and you see a lot of holes.

-He's only played a full season in two of the past five years, a product of his age (possibly).

-He can't hit outside of US Cellular. His splits are jarring over the past three seasons:

Away: .248/.382/.456 - .838 OPS
Home: .276/.404/.660 - 1.064 OPS

Away: 412 ABs, 20 hrs
Home: 479 ABs, 52 hrs

Basically, he's still Frank Thomas, so long as the games are in Chicago. Outside of Chicago, he's just another A's type of hitter: low average, medium power. Not a slugger. Not a HOF. And at anything more than $5M, that's too rich for more 'average' production. Then again, an .838 OPS is a HUGE upgrade over Hatteberg. Still. $$$.

by zitophile on Oct 22, 2005 9:44 AM PDT reply actions

for 6 million dollars Thomas would not be

an acceptable option.

by OaklandSi on Oct 22, 2005 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Frank Thomas in Oakland

You say he can't hit away from home, but how can you ignore his career average of .304 at McAfee Coliseum, and a career .433 OBP in Oakland? Not to mention his .553 slugging pct and his .986 OPS.

I'll take those numbers for $6mil, but we have to remember that none of this matters unless we have good reason to believe he won't get injured...

all Frank Thomas career split stats found here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/4527/splits?year=career&type=Batting

"You can't get any more 'Oakland' than the Coliseum. Get any more 'Oakland' and you're in San Leandro!" -Random Drunk Bum at Game

by rungood on Oct 23, 2005 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions

Thomas not getting injured...

74 Games played
34 Games played

He's going to be 38 next year. I'd say the odds of him staying healthy aren't good.

by grover on Oct 23, 2005 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions

unfortunately

Grover...I think you're right. Now if only we could make a time machine to go back to 1991 and get that Frank Thomas. Then we'd be set.

"You can't get any more 'Oakland' than the Coliseum. Get any more 'Oakland' and you're in San Leandro!" -Random Drunk Bum at Game

by rungood on Oct 23, 2005 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Time machine

I'll pony up $20 for the development of said invention.

by grover on Oct 23, 2005 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Another point on the numbers

Byrnes and Kielty are much better vs. LH pitchers, and they had quite a few at-bats in 2005, accounting for some of the team's superior numbers vs. lefties. With Byrnes gone and Kielty likely to get fewer at-bats in 2006, the results should be closer to some degree.

"Young, cheap and talented is the best way to go through life, son." --Dean Beane

by dylantravis on Oct 22, 2005 10:00 AM PDT reply actions

I think what's fooling everyone

is Kotsay. Kots is always better against lefties and really makes him have right hander stats. That acounts for a lot of the gain. The other part that is mostly responsible is that we have a .330 (probably not exactly but I'm not looking up splits) hitter against lefties who is not very good against righties. Mr. Ronnie Mac is who I'm referring to of course. The same was true for Byrnes. Both tremendously helped our splits vs. lefties but hindered us against righties. My solution get two hitters who are great against both or great against one, good against the opposite.

"The difference between Jose Canseco and Kobe Bryant is that Kobe doesn't believe in giving his teammates any shots." -Jay Leno

by vignette17 on Oct 22, 2005 10:34 AM PDT reply actions

And I think Kotsay's

stats are reasonably reliable, i.e. I expect him to continue to excel against LHP. Chavy is less clear--improving stats, yet still many "vs LHP ABs" where he tries to pull and looks foolish or overmatched. Crosby is the least clear, having contradicted himself over his first 2 seasons.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions

vs LHP

1640 total ABs vs LHP (2005)
'05 ABs/LHP SLG
LF 80 .413 JayPay
3B 216 .421 Chavez
RF 123 .325 Swisher
2B 112 .509 Ellis
SS 102 .549 Crosby
CF 179 .458 Kotsay
1B 99 .325 DJ
C 164 .335 Kendall
DH You don't want to know

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Starters ABs vs RHPs

ABs SLG/RHPs
RF 339 .490
3B 409 .489
1B 276 .467
LF 195 .467
2B 322 .466
SS 231 .416
CF 403 .404
DH 347 .357 - You're killing me
C 437 .316 - No Trade clause until '07

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Isn't it sad that

Kendall slugged .335 against LHP, and it was his better stat?

Let me just go ahead and answer that: Yes.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 23, 2005 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

And Swisher outslugged them all!

Chavez close though

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly, vignette

The A's Right-handed hitters have much bigger RHP/LHP splits than the left-handed hitters.

Lefties:
Kotsay (.817 OPS vs LHP/.715 OPS vs RHP), Johnson (.799 OPS vs LHP/.806 OPS vs RHP)
Chavez (.749 OPS vs LHP/.818 OPS vs RHP --- but the difference is ALL in Slugging. Chavvy's onbase and batting averages were almost the same against both RHP & LHP.)
Swisher is much batter against righties.

Righties:
Kielty (.866 OPS vs LHP/.673 OPS vs RHP)
Crosby (.940 OPS vs LHP/.741 OPS vs RHP)
Ellis (.912 OPS vs LHP/.843 vs RHP)
Kendall (.701 OPS vs LHP/.653 OPS vs RHP)
Payton's numbers are pretty similar against both.

Nico's point is a good one, that the timing of when the A's faced right-handed pitching and left-handed pitching makes a difference. The sample sizes might be too small.

But the numbers lead me to believe the A's actually need another LEFT HANDED bat -- or just a righty that can hit righties.

by Eck on Oct 22, 2005 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

something I've always wondered

when a lefty pitcher who has great numbers against (say) righties meets a righty hitter with great numbers against lefty pitchers, is there a pattern to what happens? As in, "the pitcher's numbers predict better than the hitter's"...

by Apricot on Oct 22, 2005 10:35 AM PDT reply actions

That's a great question, 'Cotty

What happens...When strengths collide? Sounds like a FOX special waiting to be produced.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Well the obvious solution is to lock Swish, and

Kielty in a batting cage, or Jennifers basement, until they can hit from the left side of the plate.

by theblackpearl on Oct 22, 2005 10:41 AM PDT reply actions

um

There is no way they would get any work done in the batting cages if they were locked up in Jennifer's basement.

Well...at least Swish wouldn't.

"How much room do I have to cover out here?" -- Kotsay

by Sharon on Oct 22, 2005 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Not hitting work, anyway.

by ArakSOT on Oct 25, 2005 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions

For the record on Frank Thomas

He has been a great hitter at the Net':

In 29 at bats (over the last three years): 3 homers, 6 rbi's, 5 runs, 3 doubles, 5 walks, 5 K's.

.321/.424/.750/1.174

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 22, 2005 12:13 PM PDT reply actions

But Ohad, the A's won't be pitching to him. He

has a good average agains the team in general

by theblackpearl on Oct 22, 2005 12:38 PM PDT reply actions

wouldn't

it be a fair assesment that he can still hit if he can hit the a's?? we have a good staff!

"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."

by jacobo2u on Oct 22, 2005 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions

my point was

that he knows how to hit in that stadium. Thats one of the adjustments hitters have to make.

RIP Bill King "By the Beard of Zeus!" "I don't know if you heard me counting. I did over a thousand"

by ohad on Oct 23, 2005 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions

It is very simple the A's are a little

overstocked as far as left handed hitters so the obvious thing would be is to get a right handed power guy. The basic need is to have a big bat hitting behind Chavy in the order. We lacked this in 2005 in my opinion.

Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

by Big Jim on Oct 22, 2005 12:58 PM PDT reply actions

And also

you get some one with a bat to hit before or after Chavy, the real Eric Chavez will return and in a big way.

Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

by Big Jim on Oct 22, 2005 1:02 PM PDT reply actions

I thought that way for awhile... backing up

Chavez...But what it really comes down to is getting efficient where you were deficient.

We were consistently deficient in offense at

DH
Bench
Catcher

Who is behind Chavez is symptomatic of the 3 offensive weaknesses that invite competitors to pitch around our lineups. Catcher will have to wait for the "no-trade" to go away. That leaves DH and the bench to be overhauled for '06 if the A's are to compete with the "opportunity to win".

If BB gets a big bopper that ends up protecting Chavez great. If it's Crosby or someone else, great.

Also, ...that is the real Chavez playing every year.

"...It might have been a great year with a real DH."

by A s Eh on Oct 23, 2005 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

right-handed power: need or wish?

I think the thinking behind "we need a right handed bat" has to do with putting someone next to Chavez in the batting order. The team needs a serious power threat either right before or after him. That's the main thing.

All else being equal, you'd rather that person be of the opposite handedness so that teams are pressured to make a pitching change for them in late pressure situations.

But I'd rather get another lefty who's a REAL threat than a righty who's only okay.

With Eric Chavez batting, Jason Kendall scores on defensive indifference.

by matthias on Oct 22, 2005 4:31 PM PDT reply actions

agreed

by OaklandSi on Oct 23, 2005 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Wells wants out of Boston

We give them Zito and Chavez in exchange for Wells, Hanley, and Manny.

by Pucking Insane on Oct 22, 2005 4:39 PM PDT reply actions

are you a red sox fan?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Oct 22, 2005 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Lefties and Fenway do not mix well:

Unless you are the Offense, then you love them!!!

"Carlos Pena, Staring Into the Sun Looked Like He Was Stoned On Acid" - Bill King

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Oct 25, 2005 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Why?

Wells is nearly 40 while Zito is mid-20s, Manny has an inflated contract and poor attitude, Chavez a more reasonable contract and a good attitude, and all you've done in the short term is a "wash" because you've lost a starting pitcher and a slugger in order to get one of each. Plus, Wells is icky.

Nico

by Nico on Oct 22, 2005 4:44 PM PDT reply actions