Wait, what?  This is "Staturday," not "Wednescout."  Even if you hate Staturdays, you can skip the text and go to the second-to-last paragraph, which contains an important link that I know you'll want to click.

Let me tell you a little something about defensive stats: when it comes to evaluating a player's contributions, they're shaky. You might have already known that.  But the dirty little secret about defensive stats is this: when it comes to judging what a fielder's true fielding skill is, they're almost worthless.  Well, worthless is an exaggeration.  But we have to be very careful when coming to a conclusion about a how good a defender a fielder is. 

And it has nothing to do with how good the defensive metrics we use are.  Why? Regression to the mean.

If you're too lazy to re-read my primer on regression, then I'll give you the Cliff's Notes version: we must always regress to the mean when figuring true player skills, and the amount we regress is based on 1) how much performance data we have and 2) what the spread in skills are among the general MLB population.  This is independent of how good the defensive metric we are using is.

Let's start with the first issue: how much performance data we have for defense.  A full-time shortstop might have 500 opportunties to field a ball in any given year.  A centerfielder might have 400.  Every other fielder will see fewer than that.  Those numbers are smaller than the number of PAs a player gets in a full season.

The difference between the best and worst hitters, over the course of a full season, is something like 100 runs - think Albert Pujols versus Tony Pena.  Imperfect as our defensive metrics are, they give us a pretty decent idea of how many runs the best and worst fielders are worth over the course of a full season.  A guy like Mark Ellis might save 20 runs on defense, and a guy like Manny Ramirez might cost 20 runs.  Let's tack on five runs on either end to get 50, a nice, round number.  The spread in fielding skill is, generally speaking, about half of much as the spread in hitting skill.

So, to recap: smaller sample size than hitting, smaller spread in talent - ergo, more regression to the mean.  Even if you had the perfect defensive metric.

And that's why we need scouts.  But here's the other dirty little secret: you, too, can be a scout.  Why not?  You watch lots of baseball.  So do I.  And if we put our opinions together, we might start getting there.  Two sets of eyes are better than one.  And a thousand sets of eyes are better than two.

And that's what the Fan Scouting Report is all about.  Every year, Tom Tango asks thousands of fun to give their scouting reports by rating fielders in a variety of categories.  Says Tom:

What I would like to do now is tap that pool of talent. I want you to tell me what your eyes see. I want you to tell me how good or bad a fielder is. Go down, and start selecting the team(s) that you watch all the time. For any player that you've seen play in at least 10 games in 2008, I want you to judge his performance in 7 specific fielding categories.

And best of all, for you statophobes:

And, most importantly, do not, absolutely do not, look at any numbers. Don't look at his fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating, UZR, or anything else that someone else is telling you. I just want you to rely on your eyes. You are the scout. I need you to rely completely on your own observations.

Tom's been doing this every year for about five years now, so we're starting to get good historical data.  But if you look at the number of ballots cast for each player, you'll find that the Red Sox and Mariners players get tons of evaluations, and the A's players very few. 

That's embarrassing to me, and it should be to you, considering that we have a group of knowledgeable and dedicated fans right here on AN.  So what are you waiting for?  Submit your evaluations of the A's fielders.  Think Mark Ellis is criminally underrated?  Can't stand to see Jack Cust commune with his glove?  Then say so!

But this is important: be honest in your evaluations.  This isn't a ballot-stuffing contest.  We're not trying to beat Blue-Grey Sky.  This is an attempt to use the collective knowledge of the best-informed baseball fans our there to help us identify fielding skill.

Continue reading this post »

“Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.” –Crash Davis

In the last appearance of Pitch, Blease, we saw that the effectiveness of a pitcher’s fastball is very much dependent on a pitcher’s ability to compliment it with breaking/off speed pitches. Heat only helps if you do not have to throw it all the time.

In this article, we will explore some of these other pitches, the curve, slider and change. Before we get into that, here is the article on the knuckler:
Wakefield throws it. He throws it a lot. He throws it slowly. Small Sample Size warnings apply to any conclusions drawn from that data set.
The splitter is only thrown often by a few guys – too many to summarize that succinctly and to few to write a meaningful article about.

Continue reading this post »

STOP READING – SPOILER ALERT!

This column will project the upcoming season with such frightening precision that playing the games will be little more than a novelty. The only reason to attend a game will be to drink over priced beer, eat garlic fries and enjoy the beats pounded out of the left field bleachers. Fair enough, those are some good reasons.

Read on, if you must, but do not say that I did not warn you.

Warnings aside, these projections, as with all projections, are inexact. They are based on weighted averages of a range of possible outcomes for each player. Many players will exceed these projections. Many others will fail to live up to them. I do my best to account for health, but, again, these are based on what I consider to be the most likely outcome and serious injuries or unexpected health could change playing time projections dramatically.

Offensive projections are based on this formula, drawn exclusively from OPS (as projected by PECOTA) and playing time:

RC = (.3 x OPS - .1) x PA

Pitching projections are based on this formula, drawn exclusively from RA/9 (as projected by PECOTA) and IP:

RA = RA/9 x IP/9

These are both very simple translations. They do not include important considerations, such as defense, leverage, base running, OPS distribution and a number of other factors.

Lineups were taken from MLB.com’s depth charts. Playing time was based on my own estimates.

Poll

Should the A's have gone for it?

• Yes, absolutely.
• Yes, but only if BB believed improved health was on the horizon.
• No, 85 wins this year isn't worth 65 wins for the foreseeable future.
• Fire Geren now!!!!!!

  753 votes | Results

Continue reading this post »

Inspired by jeffro's idea for getting a bunch of AN'ers together to watch the A's open the season against the Red Sox in Japan, I thought that we should "invite" Billy Beane to have a few loyal friends over—to the Coliseum to watch the games on the StomperTron. Obviously, sure, there'd be a multitude of logistical questions on the A's end—mostly to do with staffing and setup, which is really beyond my purview or concern. And given the early-morning start time for the games, BART wouldn't really be an option for getting to the game (though I have a potential solution for that, which I'll outline below). Most importantly, we know that the A's, as is only right, don't really have any interest in making a massive giveaway of goods and services. So the question is: How many of us would be willing to pay to do this, in order to make it cost-effective for the A's to do it? Billy, consider this an open-source marketing survey more than a request, per se. AN'ers, please read the poll answers carefully before you respond. And chime in with comments about how this could (or couldn't) be made to work to the A's (financial and fan-base) advantage. Personally, I think that with the combination of the uniqueness of the event and the usual capacity crowd associated with a Red Sox visit to the Coliseum (i.e., transplanted Bostonians with cash to burn), the A's could probably pull in a sizable crowd for such an event. They could even work around the problem of BART's last train for the previous evening arriving at 1:00 a.m., by scheduling some sort of promotional or charity on-field event (perhaps as simple as fireworks?) prior to game time.

Poll

Would you be interested in going to the Coliseum to watch the season opener against the Red Sox in Japan?

• No, not interested
• Only interested if it was free admission
• Yes, I'd be willing to pay up to $5 to attend
• Yes, I'd be willing to pay up to $10 to attend
• Yes, I'd be willing to pay up to $20 to attend
• Yes, I'd be willing to pay up to $50 to attend

  619 votes | Results

Maybe I don’t know anything about baseball, or maybe I have missed a very fundamental part of a ‘simple’ statistic, but since Fire Joe Morgan was willing to take apart this article, I strongly suspect it’s not just me.

Maybe I simply expect too much from the official MLB.com site, but in my opinion, there are a few things wrong with a statistic like this.

From the Mets ‘mailbag’:

Is this really where we are in measuring baseball? Are we looking for such a simple answer to ‘how good a player is’ that we now have narrowed it down to how many RBI’s they have in 100 at-bats? Anyone who has ever tried to explain the game of baseball to someone from another country knows how complicated this sport truly is. Why would we expect our analysis of individual players to be any different?

It’s statistics like this that award a pitcher a Cy Young award based solely on their win totals. Are we going to base our MVP now on number of RBI’s? And if you’re going to make up a statistic, can’t you use something like RBI’s in number of RBI chances instead of merely 100 AB’s?

Are RBI’s even that important? Are they a statistic even within a player’s control? What am I missing?

When last we met I was defending Billy Beane’s track record in turning 1st round picks into big league starters. From 2002-2006 the A's have had twice as much success in converting their 1st round picks into big league starters. Drafting is not an exact science, focusing on the draft picks that failed to turn out is to ignore the obvious: Billy Beane and his staff have been better at this task then every other front office in baseball.

In spite of that success, the A’s ended the 2007 season needing to rebuild and the farm system was completely inadequate to the task. How could that be? Why did Beane have to trade two young, talented and inexpensive players in Dan Haren and Nick Swisher to procure the bushel of prospects necessary to revive the team? Somewhere, something must have gone horribly wrong for things to have ended up like they have. Injuries, of course, ruined Oakland’s 2007 season but that doesn’t fully explain what caused the overall weakness within the farm system. Every organization has prospects get hurt, draft picks that don’t pan out... it’s the nature of the beast. So why was Oakland’s farm system so unprepared to help the big league team?

Continued after the jump.

Poll

Is Billy Beane guilty as charged?

• Guilty!
• Not guilty!

  678 votes | Results

Continue reading this post »

Based on reader feedback, it appears the community likes “occasional but not too often” information and discussion about the system for enforcing the Community Guidelines. So I have settled on an “early in the calendar year” annual update, and given the recent discussions it seems like a fine time to open this can o’ worms. I have broken this post into three sections: factual information, clarifications on how the system works, and a little closing commentary. For those who may be newer to AN, please note that CGV stands for Community Guidelines Violation.

The Facts

In 2007, there were 23 complaints lodged resulting in 19 “strikes” or “warnings”. (In 2006, there were 38 complaints lodged, resulting in 26 “strikes” or “warnings”.)

Some Clarifications On How The System Works

• Any user, whether or not they were the target, may report a comment they believe is a CGV for evaluation by AN’s four-person sub-committee. The sub-committee does not actively look for CGVs and neither do the front-page writers or administrators. It is up to community members to report comments that violate the Community Guidelines – if a CGV is not reported, it cannot be considered and thus no “strike” can be given.
  
  
• When judging whether or not a comment is a CGV, the sub-committee is holding the comment up to the stated Community Guidelines as the measure of whether or not a “strike,” a “warning,” or “no strike” is warranted.
  
  
• Each sub-committee member considers a given complaint independently (not all together as a group). Thus, for a comment to be deemed a “strike,” a community member has to be compelled to report it and then at least 3 of 4 sub-committee members, when comparing the comment to the stated Community Guidelines, has to independently conclude that the comment is indeed a CGV.
  
  
• When a user is given a “strike” or “warning,” he/she receives an email (from me) that states what the offending comment was and which part of the Community Guidelines it violated.
  
  
• In contrast to the judicial system, “defendants” (complainees) are not contacted prior to a ruling for a chance to give their defense, and there is no formal “appeal” process in place if a “strike” is given. The sub-committee exists to compare complaints against the stated CGs, and their rulings are their rulings.
  

A Little Commentary

First of all, please be clear on something: It is really hard to get banned without trying really hard. Any “strike” rolls off after four “clean” months. There were all of 19 “strikes” doled out to the entire community in the entire calendar year of 2007, because most CGVs go unreported. If you get a “strike,” and then within four months get another one, and then – knowing you are one “strike” away from being banned – you can’t go four months without making yet another comment that a user, and at least 3 of 4 judges, all independently agree violates Community Guidelines that essentially say “don’t personally insult or belittle people, and leave politics out of this baseball site,” well then…maybe AN just isn’t right for you.

And honestly, the notion that there is bias on the sub-committee is pretty lame. A lack of transparency does not inherently mean there must be bias. First, realize that Blez selected the sub-committee members specifically because they were community members who had established his, and the community’s, trust and confidence. Then remember that the sub-committee members volunteer their time to AN solely because they care about the site, and wish for it to remain a community where the discourse is not just spirited but also civil and respectful. Finally, consider that by having four sub-committee members, and allowing each to cast a vote independently, there is not room for any one person’s opinion, or potential bias, to weigh too heavily. The system is designed so that a group of veteran community members who are fair-minded by nature can have an objective means (the stated CGs) to come to a consensus decision – in the name of holding the community accountable for treating each other decently.

Does the sub-committee always get it right? No. Do they deserve 1,000 thanks for every criticism? I think so. Now cue the worms, in 3…2…1…

I always hesitate to claim that a rumor is close to happening, but I've been surprised that the A's hadn't moved Joe Blanton yet.  So it doesn't come as a surprise that now that Johan Santana is off the market and the choice of free agent pitchers left consist of Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez, the market for Joe Blanton's services appear to have picked up again.

It would be interesting that the Reds would want Blanton because they'd already scored nicely with Aaron Harang a few years ago and they have a few different prospects who are right on the verge of making a nice impact at the pro level.

I just recently got John Sickels' 2008 Prospect Book (the best in the business if you ask me, but I might be a bit biased).  And Votto and Cueto are graded out as A- in the book and Bailey is a B+.  For a baseline of how hard Sickels grades prospects, none of the A's prospects that they got in any of the deals earned anything above a B+.  And while many have claimed that Beane should look away from another first baseman, my opinion is that if you can get a talent like Votto, you have to do it.  Votto has a ton of power and that is one thing that Barton may or may not consistently show.  I'm probably one of the few here who believes in acquiring talent based on how good they can be, not necessarily on organizational positional needs.  Especially if the A's could move the talent for something else.

At the same time, if the A's could get Cueto AND Votto, then you have to pull the trigger on the deal.  Even if that means a truly abysmal 2008. Cueto is an A- in Sickels' book and this sentence from the portion about Cueto is all I need to know about him to know that I would love to have him.  

My one concern about Cueto after reading about him is that he's listed at 5'11" and Sickels says that he appears smaller than that.  And having been through Tim Hudson's oblique issues and Rich Harden's various different ailments, a smaller power pitcher makes me nervous.

Ken Rosenthal speculates that the Twins and Rays might be the other destinations interested in Blanton, but the Twins don't seem to make much sense right now since they seem to be moving in the same direction the A's are.  The Rays would make sense since they have a few left-handed pitchers who grade out as straight A's according to Sickels.  They've also needed an established, veteran starting pitcher in their staff since...well, forever.

Any way, it will be interesting to see how long Joe lasts.  I still think it makes sense to keep him for now, but if the A's get a great deal for him, you might as well go the distance with the rebuild.

Finally, this will likely be my last post before the brand new Athletics Nation debuts next week.  I'm really excited for all of our users to get their hands on it.  It's going to add a ton of functionality to the mix and AN gets to be the first community to take the new platform for a test drive. I'm really excited that this community will be the lucky ones to see what we've essentially spent the last year building.

In this era of the internet, Extra Innings, XM radio, and the numerous other mediums we have for following our favorite baseball team, we no longer have the real fear of losing all day-to-day contact with the A’s if they were to move. The vast quantity of Non-Resident A's Fans on this site alone proves this. And as much as all of us dread losing a part of the A’s history--the Oakland franchise--can you imagine what it must have been like fifty years ago, when your favorite team either had to play locally (or at least within your radio broadcast range) for you to realistically be involved in the day-to-day, game-to-game workings of the team?

For those of you who are murky on the details of our history (and yes, I had to research people and places to follow some parts of this interview), the Philadelphia Athletics were founded as one of the eight charter members of the American League in 1901, and played in Philadelphia until they moved the thousand miles to Kansas City in 1955. The A’s were only in Kansas City for a few short years; they picked up and moved again in 1968 (this time two thousand miles), to their current home in Oakland.  

Imagine being born in 1938, and living in Philadelphia. You would have grown up with the Athletics, and when you turned seventeen, you would have witnessed the team packing up and moving. If you chose to become a long-distance fan, you would have had to endure another move the year you turned thirty. I am thirty-one. I have never known another home outside of Oakland for the Athletics, and I quite honestly can’t imagine one move in my lifetime, much less two. It was hard enough to leave the A’s behind when I moved from Northern California to Southern, and I had every possible means available for following my team.

I don’t normally think a lot about the A’s past; I am usually more in tune with their present and future, but when I received an email from a septuagenarian, who happens to be a life-long A’s fan, in response to the Bobby Crosby debate, I did the math and realized that it is not often that I would have a chance to talk to someone who not only knew the A’s in their original Philadelphia, but has lived through seven decades of Major League baseball, and two Athletics’ moves.

I can’t be the only one who is intrigued by historical A’s memories, so I have posted my questions and his answers for your enjoyment. His comments are all bolded, and I have added brief explanations and links to events and people that we might not know off the top of our heads.

1. How long have you been an A’s fan? How did you become an A’s fan?

I went to both A's and Phillies games from the days when you got double headers on a Sunday! Starts at 1PM with the blue laws not allowing the game to go past 7PM. I loved to see Eddie Joost, Pete Suder, Gus Zernial, Mickey Guerra, and developed a love for the American league.

The Blue Laws were curfews enforced which prohibited the sale of alcoholic beverages and commerce on Sundays.

Eddie Joost
Pete Suder
Gus Zernial
Mickey Guerra

2. The A’s moved from Philadelphia to Kansas City in 1954, and again from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968. For a lot of us on AN, we are having a hard time imagining a single Oakland Athletics move, yet you endured not one, but two moves. Do you remember either? Where were you living at the time, and how did this affect your decision to continue to follow the A’s?

The move was heartbreaking! Believe it or not, I forget the station, but I would be up at night getting the Kansas City A's game on radio from Phila. At least when they came east I used to go to their games. Charlie Finley [was] as crazy as he appeared to be. Example: a cow milking contest at the games, he was tough with the dollars. [H]e fought Joe Rudi over 10 cents!

Charlie Finley

3. Can you describe your earliest memory of an A’s game? What was the stadium like? What was the crowd like? What was the overall feeling about baseball at the time in your city?

The A's games were played at Shibe Park I think the city as a whole was leaning slightly toward the National League. The right fielder at the time was a man named Elmer Valo. He would run into this wall quite frequently to try and make catches! There is an A's group that meets. Eddie Joost was a guest speaker. I remember Joost leading off, Wally Moses batting second, Ferris Fain batting third, Sam Chapman, center fielder batting fourth. There did not seem to me that much of an uprising when they decided to move. Remember Connie Mack was not the biggest spender you ever saw.

Shibe Park
Elmer Valo
Connie Mack

4. Who is your all-time most memorable Athletics player?

I always liked Gus Zernial. But to tell you a story he was big guy, and not the best left fielder. I was at a game when he dove for a line drive, broke his shoulder, and got booed. I liked Bobby Shantz as a pitcher and person. In Kansas City I liked Gino Cimoli. Most of all the Sal Bando, Gene Tenance , Joe Rudi, Dennis Eckersley, Catfish Hunter era was the best of all.

Gus Zernial biography

Bobby Shantz
Gino Cimoli

5. What would you say is the biggest difference between the earliest baseball you can remember and today’s baseball?  

I will try and not editorialize, but in the old days a baseball player had to work in the off-season to meet his obligations. Today with an average salary of 1.3MM for me it is aggravating. Most businesses would not keep mediocre talent and have salaries like that. Only in sports can you be average or less and still make a living greater than most. Is it jealousy, if you knew me you would know it's not. The latest steroids issue, in my opinion, shows how much was going on and how many people chose to ignore it.

6. You mentioned that you had a chance to see Vida Blue? Could you tell us a little about that experience?

I went and saw them [The A’s] play many times in New York, Baltimore, Washington. Yes there was a Washington Senator baseball team, and I saw Vida Blue [in one of] his first games in the majors [against] Washington. Vida Blue! All I can remember is taking a day off from work and traveling to Washington to what was the fastest fast ball I had seen a pitcher throw! I believe the A's won.

So, this begs the question; who else is out there that may have rooted for the A’s in either Philadelphia or Kansas City? And if you saw Vida Blue pitch live (perhaps a more recent question), we’ll take you as well!

Poll

How long have you been an Athletics fan?

• 41-50 years
• 50+ years
• 31-40 years
• 21-30 years
• 11-20 years
• 6-10 years
• 1-5 years
• Just starting out

  934 votes | Results

On this Super Tuesday I find myself upset that decisions such as the Oakland A’s 2008 lineup are not made in the sensible manner of the election system. Surely, a large group of educated and informed people – like A’s fans, or the general population – can do a competent job of completing a task as unimportant as electing a president or a task as vital as selecting a baseball lineup.

First you need two parties, such as The Sabermetric Party and The Old School Scout Party, which can publicly debate the merits of each player, offering spirited arguments about VORP, “he looks like a ballplayer when he runs,” ZIPS projections, and “he has that ‘giddyup’ on his fastball”. Then a third independent party can claim that neither the Sabermetrics nor the Old Schoolers are good for baseball, so the independent party’s ideas can be slandered in the media and widely ignored by the public.

Then the people vote. Or about half of them choose to, anyway. Donnie Murphy wins Alameda County, securing 23 delegates, while Bobby Crosby, boosted by an awesome new haircut and the official endorsement of Peter Gammons, secures the 28 delegates from Contra Costa County. Suddenly, Sonoma County’s mere 9 delegates are looming large. It’s a tight race into the evening, yet already at 7:00pm two TV stations are calling it for Crosby and the Sabermetric Party is complaining that Old Schoolers have been seen at several polling stations scaring wonks away from casting their ballots.

All I’m saying is that I want the chance to cast my one absentee vote for Nick Swisher only to have him traded before election day. Edwards/Huckabee in 2008, baby! Seriously, I think they’d make a great platoon at shortstop.