I don't know if this has been brought up or not as I have not been keeping up with AN over the last few weeks, but the conspiracy theorist in me thinks that Lew Wolf has been told by Selig that he will give him San Jose but that Wolf has to play ball. At around the time Selig announced that the stadium was on the "front burner" Beane started signing players like Coco, Gomes, Colon and then trading for Smith. Honestly who saw any of these signings coming? With these moves the A's went from possible 100 games losers to being mediocre to decent. The rest of baseball does not want the A's to be terrible because the worse they are, the worse the revenue they pull in which means the other owner would have to shell out more in revenue sharing. The rest of baseball doesn't want to pay welfare to any team and especially not to a team that is intentionally tanking. So Selig told Wolf that if wants San Jose then he needs to spend more money this season in order to generate more wins and revenue.

I believe Selig has a soft spot for Manny mostly because he helped bring a WS to Boston which MLB undoubtedly loves. I think this is a major factor in Manny's reduced suspension. Maybe its a coincidence, but the A's are the only team "interested" in Manny. I don't think is a coincidence. If the A's sign Manny then its another box checked off on Seligs 'San Jose to Do List' for Wolf.

No, this isn't a discussion about rally racing, though let's give it up for Ken Block, the American action sports legend and only Yankee* on the 2012 circuit. This is the W.R.C. for those who may be confused right now. Okay, enough international racing talk, let's get back to some baseball. Here's the challenge:

Who do you, AN, believe will lead this team in wRC+ at the end of the upcoming season?

In non-sabermetric terms, this question is simply: Who will be the team's best hitter in 2012? The math inclined (myself included) like to quantify this through mathemagic and look at stats such as wRC, but please use the metric of your choice. Keep in mind that this discussion isn't about the best overall player; I'm tired of hearing about defense and positional value. I want to know who you think will be the guy we most look forward to seeing come up the plate.

I have no idea whatsoever who's going to take home the A's wRC+ title. Last year Willingham's skill set of home runs and not much else beat out Weeks with his doubles n' triples and Scott "I sort of know how to draw walks" Sizemore's late season surge

2011 A's who were above league average in wRC+ (100 is an exactly league average hitter)**:

Willingham: 123

Sizemore: 118

Weeks: 110

Crisp: 100

This year the title is completely up for grabs. With Willingham gone, Sizemore is now the reigning champ on the team. But Weeks should be biting at his heels. Crisp will probably finish outside the top 3 again (yay for veterans you can count on). The question becomes, who among the hordes of OF/1B/DH do you like to challenge Weeks and Sizemore for king of the hill?

There's the new golden boy Cespedes. Smith could wind up with a huge wRC+ if platooned correctly. Allen could turn in a Willingham type season buoyed by HRs and eke out the top dog position. Maybe Reddick/Carter/Kila/Taylor blossoms into a stud hitter? That walking fool Barton is still just a year removed from a 126 wRC+ season.

My prediction: Smith takes home the title for this rate stat, but does it with only about 300 PA to his name. Among the full-timers, I like Sizemore to take a step forward and capture the 2012 A's wRC+ title. A guy like Reddick could settle in to a quiet life of 105 wRC+ production, but the others will have wild swings of productivity and slumpage. I've resigned myself to the idea of Manny coming to Oakland, and I'm okay with him putting up serviceable numbers. I dislike the idea of him being our best hitter. Here's a stat: In Manny's worst full season he put up a Willingham-like 125 wRC+ (for Boston in '07).

So, who do you all think will be the biggest threat at the plate for the green and gold this year?

*Does it bother anyone else that out hated baseball rival bears the name of the international nickname for Americans. Every time someone references the US populace using that nickname, I have to twinge a bit.

**Well, if you want to play small sample size, Jai Miller hit that one home run as part of his 12 PAs and wound up with a 103 wRC+ last year.

Think about the most average player, and whatever you think the best hitting summary statistic is, which i'll call 'H'. now think about whatever pitching stat you value the most, and let's call that 'P'. You can sort the league's pitchers from low P to high P values, and look at the hitter's H stats in that way (ie. his H value for the bottom 10% of the pitchers, then the next 10%, etc). Obviously there will be a tendency for reduced H values as the P group becomes more difficult. Over the population of a league, you can get a measure of what that relationship looks like.
The goal is find out whether a hitter does better than expected given his overall stats against either strong pitching or weak pitching. (ie., if his overall stats indicate a H value of 5, you might expect that he will bat like a 7 against the bottom 10% of pitchers in his league, and a 3 against the top 10%. )
For minor leaguers, would you think that a player that outperforms his overall stats against the better pitchers be a better prospect than a batter who outperforms his overall stats against the weaker pitchers?
I think maybe so, because the better pitchers on a given minor league level are the ones who the minor league batter will face when he gets to the next level.
For major leaguers, are there really some hitters who succeed more than expected against better pitchers and suck more than expected against weaker pitchers? If you could quantify this, would it be useful on either the major or minor league level? And even if it would be useful, is there enough data to evaluate and get significance in your answers?

(and if it would be of use, it could be turned around to evaluate a given pitcher and his performance against better and worse hitters vs. expected results)

I was just trying to think of a way to better predict future performance. I picture 2 AAA hitters with identical overall stats -- but one doing better than expected against the best AAA pitchers but not as good as you would think against the weak AAA pitchers.

This question written by someone (me) who knows little about baseball stats, and I'm sorry if it is, indeed, stupid. It's a long off-season.

KNBR just announced that the A's signed Yeonis Cespedis for 4 years $36 million. We will see if this is true. So far I haven't found anything official yet. I was suprised when I did not see anything on AN about it yet. This is an interesting signing if it is true. The Athletics could certainly use the talent, but it does not really fit the rebuild. If we did sign Cespedes where does he fit in with all of the other recent player acquisitions?

.261/16/73

.290/13/63

.059/0/0

Those were the stat lines (AVG/HR/RBI) of three well-known veterans in 2011. The 1st is johnny Damon. The 2nd is Vladimir Guerrero. The third... is Manny Ramirez.

Of course, Ramirez only had 17 plate appearances in for Tampa Bay before he was suspended (again) for drug use. He ended up retiring halfway through the season before announcing his return to baseball this offseason, and perhaps ushering baseball's version of Brett Favre. He will miss the first 50 games of the season in 2012, and unless he plays just about every single game, he'll finish with 100 games played. Coupled with his lousy attitude and the fact that he's a 39 year-old with a bad track record, is he really worth signing to a million-dollar contract just so that we can see Manny being Manny (which isn't even a good thing).

But here's the thing: are any of three aforementioned vets - Vlad, Damon and Ramirez - actually worth signing? Well, I say no but let's compare them.

1: Johnny Damon

For those of you who didn't know (which may be no one, but whatever), Johnny Damon played exactly one season for the A's, in 2001. He hit .256 with 9 homeruns, 49 RBI and 27 steals (12 CS) in 644 AB's. He was a good hitter who played excellent defense and was a catalyst atop the Oakland A's lineup (and he was better then his successor, Terrence Long). After 2001, he left to pursue a multi-year contract with the Red Sox and ended winning a World Series. Statistically, he made a name for himself as a premier player, and twice hit over .300. In 2006, he went to the Bronx where he once again won a WS while continuing to hit and play good defense. then, he signed a 1-year contract with Detroit. The thing is, the Tigers had a young kid called Austin Jackson who ended up hitting over .300 as a rookie. Damon played 33 games in left, but he ended up spending most of his time as a DH. In 2011, johnny hit 16 homeruns and stole 19 bags in 582 at-bats for the Tampa Bay Rays. This was almost solely as a DH; he played 33 games in the field. Here's his career stat line:

Obviously, he's gotten worse over the years, but he's still managed to stay a decent hitter who you can count on for 10-20 homeruns and a good average. Now, I'm not sure whether he could still play in the OF but Oakland's outfield seems pretty much set for 2012, so he play pretty much solely at DH again; Johnny Gomes will spend time at DH, as may Chris Carter (though it also depends on who wins the 1B sweepstakes). Damon is interesting: he's not what he once was, but he still seems like a pretty good hitter who is also a good presence in the clubhouse as a veteran, champion of two World Series.

Here's the thing: where does Damon fit in? It seems whoever loses the 1B contest will get time at DH, as will Johnny Gomes. Damon's defense has decreased and the outfield is pretty much full. Johnny may be the most sensible option for the AThletics, but considering the current situation, signing him would just be a roadblock from some of the rookies and he would either be stealing playing time or not getting much.

Verdict: You could make a good case for Damon, but considering the A's current philosophy, he's not a fit for Oakland.

2: Vladimir Guerrero

Out of all three players, Guerrero may have the most impressive career stat line, even if Ramirez seems to be clearly better. First of all, Ramirez was on 'roids, so we don't know how much of his performance was actually him. Guerrero has 449 homeruns in his career and in 15 full seasons he has hit over .300 13 times. He was ROY in 1997 for the then Montreal Expos and has been named to 9 All-Star games; he was the 2004 MVP and has has finished amongst the Top 10 in voting 5 times. His stats show a scary amount of consistency.

In 2002, he was one dinger away from joining the 40-40 club, and while he's lost almost all of his old speed (and his defensive capabilities), he can still be counted on for 15-25 homeruns and a high average. However, I don't think that his insane 2010 season was an accurate showing of his current capabilities; 36 year-olds rarely have 100 RBI season where they also hit .300. In 2012, I would expect him to put up the same kind of numbers that he put up for Baltimore, perhaps with a few more HR's; think .288/16/77 with .755 OPS.

Well, that's not so bad. The problem is, out of all three players, Vlad is the one who could probably ask for the most money (6-7 million for one year, maybe - I don't know the contract situations), he would be solely DH. Again, the same problem that came up with Damon arises with Vlad, except this time with balky knees. Also, while Damon will probably hit the same way he did in 2011 in 2012, there's a possibility that Vlad will come down to earth and release he's an old man; think .260/11/64. In that case, there's really no point in signing him.

Verdict: Again, interesting, but the chance of a complete failure and the lose of playing time for Carter & Co is too much of a risk.

3: Manny Ramirez

Out of these three players, Manny is the one I feel most strongly about. To put it simply, Manny Ramirez is an jerk. His repeated drug use coupled with his lousy attitude and the catastrophe that is the result of "Manny being Manny" makes him the one of the most disliked players in baseball. He's not going to be a fantastic hitter - perhaps not even a good hitter - he may get injured, and, of course, he'll miss the first 50 games of the season serving the 50-game suspension that he couldn't face last year but says that he'll serve in 2012 (unless he decides to retire again). For a team that seems to pride itself on being loose and fun, Manny is the last player you would want. For sake of being balanced, I'll put his stats here, but they make no difference to me.

There's no more to say: Manny has a bad attitude and will hurt the team far more then he'd help it.

Verdict: No, no and no again.

So that's it. Three veterans. Two of them, you could make a case for. But in conclusion, none of them would make much of a difference (they'd just be for one year anyway) and they would contradict the A's current rebuilding philosophy. Say what you want, but I'm not bought on any of them.

First and foremost I do not want to sign Manny Ramirez. He has a terrible attitude and personality and will be toxic for the A's clubhouse. He will take away at bats from our young guys AND on top of all that, we can't use him until 50 games into the season. That being said the A's organization doesn't care what I think and they're going to do whatever they want. In case you haven't read the news, it seems like all other teams dropped out of the race and he is Oakland's for the taking.

It will only be a matter of days if we decide to sign him, so what type of contract do you think we should offer. If you look at his stats: http: www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirma02.shtml , you can see that he is a phenomenal hitter. Even though he is now off of steroids and Oakland isn't very hitter friendly, he will still probably lead the A's in a lot of categories if given a full season and will still be very impactful with a partial season. Since we are the only team that will give him an offer we can pretty much make it really cheap. As I was brooding about signing him, I thought to myself, 'if were gonna do it we my as well go all out'. So this is what I decided we should offer him:

1yr/ 1mm with a 2nd yr option for 3mm.

2nd year option! Oh no! My reasons are this: He had a 2mm contract from TB in 2011 (even though he "retired"), so since he is only playing a partial season he can get 1mm from us. Then the 3mm option for the next year makes him less upset about only getting 1mm this year.

The next year plan: If he ends up hitting almost as well as he did in 09/10 for the games he plays with us this year (which is absolutely possible), then I think we should bring him back (as long as he isn't a dick). Having someone hit as well as he does and we only pay him 3mm would still be a huge discount to us. By next year Barton probably won't be re-signed and either Allen, Kila, or Carter will be at first. Then one of them can also be traded come the off season. This way Manny in 2013 won't really be taking any AB away from the young guys. If Manny doesn't perform this year then we don't pick up his option. It's a weird dynamic, but it just might work. So if we're going in for Manny with a low ball offer this year, we my as well stretch that low ball offer over to an option for next. What do you think?

Community Prospect List:

#1: Jarrod Parker, RHP

#2: Michael Choice, CF

#3: AJ Cole, SP

There are about 11 or so weeks until Opening Day, so we will be doing one voting thread per week until the season starts. So get ready, set and VOTE!

The Poll Option won the vote last week, so we will be going with that from now on. Please no ballot stuffing, though ;)

Please add suggestions below for players to be added to next week's poll. If you agree with a suggestion, please comment and rec it to make it more visible.

Happy voting!

Hello all! For anyone interested I'm starting a yahoo fantasy baseball league for fans of the oakland a's aka members of athleticsnation.com. Anyone who's looking to have fun (but is content with 2nd place at best) should go to yahoo and join. the league name is AthleticSupporters and the password is oakland. There will be a live draft on March 17th (saturday) at 11:00am your time which is 2:00pm over here in ohio. All of the other info is under the league details. Hope to see lots of you there and mediocre good luck!

The recent discussions about AJ Burnett have interested me a bit. It seems that the Yanks want a left handed bat and salary relief (?) or they just want to get rid of Burnett.

My proposal; trade S Smith and Fuentes to NYY for Burnett, $25M, and two prospects, to be named later if necessary. Smith and Fuentes have about $8 M of financial obligations; Burnett is owed $33 M over the next two years so the money works out evenly. The Yanks get a useful platoon bat and a useful, if properly used situational lefty. So at least the Yanks should talk.

The A's get an inning eater who might improve out of the spotlight but little else. The real plus would be a couple of Yankee prospects - I looked at hitters like T Austin and M Williams but other names should be considered.

Now, why would the A's be interested; the money would be the same, Smith and Fuentes are not part of the long term plan, Smith (and Gomes) MAY wind up blocking someone we should play and determine if they have a future (Taylor?), and finally the prospects MAY be part of the next good team in a few years.

What do you think?

I realize this probably does not help the team in 2012 but I would really like to see a push toward acquiring young talent and not any more signings (Gomes, Manny, etc) that simply add to the muck and offer no hope for 2015.

As I sit here in front of my computor and read what happen in the Baseball world over the last 24 hour on mlbtraderumors.com I see an opportunity for the A's. This opportunity is named Roy Oswalt.

Roy wishes to pitch for the Cards or the Rangers. But both those teams do not need him, and thus have made low offers to Roy. The next team on the list, is the Red Sox. Who themselves have a self imposed cap on what they want to spend. Thus again Roy gets a low offer. The Reds and Phillies have kicked the tires, but have to move a pitcher to clear money and space (Blanton, Bailey).

Roy started the winter looking for a rumored 3 years and a maybe 10 million a year. Then he said he would sign for one year. It appears he only has offers in the 5 to 7 million range.

This is the time for the A's to make a big push for Oswalt. If the A's came in with a 2 million signing bonus and another 6 million in pay and say reachable bonus of 2 million. We might just get him. While some A's fan might say that he does not want to come to Oakland, that is nice money and well over what others seem to be offering. "You want to go to Texas, well take 5 million less!"

There are some good reasons for adding a Oswalt. The most important, is the ability to flip a very good stater at the trade deadline. Teams in the hunt, come June or July, might pay a few nice prospects to get a number one or two starter. While teams like Boston, Texas and the Cards might look today like they are set in the rotation, come June, their world has likely changed. Oswalt has been a stud for years, with only last season being a year he did not make 30+ starts.

Adding Roy, also pushes back one of the Parker or Peacock kids back to AAA for a few months. Which would likely help the kids development, and save the A's a year in sevise time.

Roy will/should understand that he is here for half a season. He will go to a playoff contender. Oakland is a stop on the way to his future team. And he will be well payed

I have written about this idea in the past, but with all the teams that Roy wants to go to, dragging their feet, this is a very nice opportunity.