Athletics Nation: FanPosts

GOG 2013 #16 - Oakland A's @ Houston Lastros

2013-05-22T17:05:16Z

GOG 2013 #16 Oakland A’s @ Houston Lastros

Gotta get this up early; I'm gonna be busy tonight.

The Astros have lost 16 games against AL West opponents—six of those losses were delivered by our very own Oakland Athletics. It’s hard not to admire the Astros’ players for playing under somewhat difficult circumstances; recognizing that they have no reasonable chance for competing this year (or next) unless they get some otherworldly progress from their prospects.

Oakland Athletics

Them

Fan Graphs

Series Outcome (3 games – 3 points)
Consistent AB’s: Chris Carter is finally getting consistent ABs—something he has said impeded his progress while in an Oakland Uniform. He currently ranks second in ABs for the Astros team, behind only the promising young Jose Altuve. Predict his PA / H / HR / K (2 each). Does he get an OF start (1 pt)? (9 total)
Nicodamus, Pen Solutions: Last week Nico Suggested (for good reason) that Cook be used to overpower the end part of a batting order so that Doolittle could be used for the top of the order hitters; "Left/Right [splits] be damned" (Nicodamus, 2013). For Cook, predict how many 6 – 9 hitters he faces in the series, how many 1 – 5 hitters does he face, and how many K's (2 pts each). Now, do the same for Doo. (12 total)
A.J. Griffin vs. L.W.B.Harrell—Predict both pitchers IP / H / ER (2 points each, 12 total). Does either starter get the win (1 pt)? Name the pitcher who gets the win (2 points if you select a starter; 3 if you select the correct Bull Pen pitcher)
Toss Up! (1 point each; 6 total)
1. How many Runs scored combined for the series?
2. How many Errors in the series?
3. How many HRs hit in the series?
4. How many Double Plays are turned?
5. Does a pitcher commit a Balk?
6. How many different players-- combined for both teams-- get PAs during the series?

(46 Total Points)

Good luck and happy GOGing!

*Let me know if you see any errors!*

GOG 2013 #16 Oakland A’s @ Houston Lastros

Gotta get this up early; I'm gonna be busy tonight.

Oakland Athletics

Them

Fan Graphs

Series Outcome (3 games – 3 points)
Consistent AB’s: Chris Carter is finally getting consistent ABs—something he has said impeded his progress while in an Oakland Uniform. He currently ranks second in ABs for the Astros team, behind only the promising young Jose Altuve. Predict his PA / H / HR / K (2 each). Does he get an OF start (1 pt)? (9 total)
Nicodamus, Pen Solutions: Last week Nico Suggested (for good reason) that Cook be used to overpower the end part of a batting order so that Doolittle could be used for the top of the order hitters; "Left/Right [splits] be damned" (Nicodamus, 2013). For Cook, predict how many 6 – 9 hitters he faces in the series, how many 1 – 5 hitters does he face, and how many K's (2 pts each). Now, do the same for Doo. (12 total)
A.J. Griffin vs. L.W.B.Harrell—Predict both pitchers IP / H / ER (2 points each, 12 total). Does either starter get the win (1 pt)? Name the pitcher who gets the win (2 points if you select a starter; 3 if you select the correct Bull Pen pitcher)
Toss Up! (1 point each; 6 total)
1. How many Runs scored combined for the series?
2. How many Errors in the series?
3. How many HRs hit in the series?
4. How many Double Plays are turned?
5. Does a pitcher commit a Balk?
6. How many different players-- combined for both teams-- get PAs during the series?

(46 Total Points)

Good luck and happy GOGing!

*Let me know if you see any errors!*

How The Other Half Lives

2013-05-20T00:17:42Z

While the A's were on the road, I ended up at AT&T Park on two separate occasions. Here's a bit of insight as to what goes on at that peculiar place.

On Friday the 3rd, I got a call at 5:00 from a friend who was already going to the game that night but got upgraded to better seats. Who was I to turn down a chance to watch Clayton Kershaw pitch? I headed over to the San Bruno Caltrain station at about 5:40, 20 minutes before my train arrived. Or so I thought. A car had been parked on the tracks in Palo Alto. I waited with my brother and met two pretty cool guys who were stuck in the same predicament. They were heading to the game for a 21st birthday and they're the type of fans every team wants to have. They knew and loved their team and we spent nearly two hours waiting for the train and talking about all sorts of stuff, from the NBA playoffs to the schools they went to growing up. Hundreds of other people were at the station during the time we waited. Most of them fit the negative stereotype of Giants fans: they were just there to party, drink and get high. Almost all of them left before we finally got a train at 7:30. During the 90 minutes of waiting, 8 southbound trains passed us and 3 completely full northbound trains passed us as well. Most of the people who were at the station around 6:00 had left and decided to go home and forget about the game which they had spent copious amounts of money on, while a few decided to drive up and park near the stadium.

As much as I hate showing up late to a game, I must say it gives a cool perspective as to what the stadium is like during a game. I'm normally in my seat from 20-30 minutes before the first pitch is thrown until a couple of minutes after the game ends, so I rarely see the goings-on in the rest of the ballpark. We got to the stadium in the fourth inning. We got in quickly, although there were a few other people who had just gotten off the train who were finally filing into the ballpark. I hadn't eaten anything in about seven and a half hours. I bolted for the food lines, which were quite long. All the while, I had been using my phone so that I could keep my scorebook updated. It made for quite a funny sight, which attracted the guy waiting in front me in line.

Line Guy was one of the most memorable people I've ever met at a ballgame. I don't know the last time I've ever seen anyone that intoxicated at a stadium or elsewhere, and I've been to parties with large groups of ridiculously wealthy teenagers without parents around. Over the next 20 minutes, he tried to carry on some sort of conversation. I barely remember it and I assume he remembers even less. It included him telling me to watch Major League, his comments on high school basketball because he saw my Burlingame Basketball sweatshirt and something about public transit. At least I think that's what he was trying to say. I couldn't tell what most of his words were other than fuck, which was every other word he said. That's not usually a bad thing, but my much younger brother was right there. I would've ignored Line Guy or told him to leave me alone, but I didn't need to see him both angry and drunk. He finally gets to the front of the line, and says, "I'll have a beer, and ... do you guys have any fuckin' sausages?"

The sausages were at the next stand. I put up with this guy for 20 minutes, and he was in the wrong line.

I finally got my food a few minutes later and got into my seats as the fifth inning draws to a close. AT&T Park has some of the best food out there, but the Coliseum wins on cheesesteaks. At this point, the Dodgers led 1-0 despite paying tribute to LOB City. The woman sitting next to me also fit every negative stereotype you could find. She brought binoculars, but was far more interested in using them to watch the hoodrats fight in the bleachers. There were at least six large fights over the last four innings. She had the most memorable line of the night: "you get so distracted here that you don't even watch the game!" I was also informed that an inning before I got to my seat, a Giants fan in the next section over and two rows up randomly started telling a vendor to go fuck himself. I counted at least three death threats aimed at Dodger fans. At one point, I miss a pitch while eating and ask if the batter (I think it was Pagan) swung at the pitch. Nobody within two rows knew. None of them were paying attention to the game. I also found it funny that Zito walked four and allowed four hits while only striking out one, yet he got a standing ovation.

I guess this game was supposed to help make up for every break the Giants didn't get during their first 50 years in San Francisco. 50 years of McCovey's line drives being caught, Scott Speizio homers, Benny Agbayani walkofs, Pudge Rodriguez's plays at the plate and Ray Durham batting cleanup. The Dodgers had 12 hits in this game and also drew six walks. They combined it all to produce one run. Meanwhile, the Giants had three hits on the night entering the ninth inning. They too had one run.

San Francisco's catcher comes to bat to lead off the bottom of the ninth inning against Ronald Belisario. On a full count, he hits a home run. Of course.

Did I still have a good time? Yes, actually. I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch and got to watch a thrilling game, despite the unfortunate ending.

One of my friends ended up with a ticket on Sunday, and said that a woman sitting in his row was contemplating when to get food. She didn't mind missing part of the game but she didn't want to miss "the Journey thing". (In the middle of the 8th, they do a sing-along with "Don't Stop Believin'" or "Lights".)

I was back the next Friday to see Tim Hudson with two of my friends, one of which is probably the biggest Giants fan I know. The guy loves his team and loves baseball. A Friday night against the Braves is quite different than one against the Dodgers. The place had maybe 15,000 people there when the national anthem was performed at 7:03. When the game began at 7:15, there were no more than 20,000 in their seats.

Shortly after first pitch. One out into the game, to be exact.

Usually, the place is pretty full during the middle innings. Not on this night. There were visible pockets of empty seats everywhere, even in the bleachers, which are usually quite crowded.

SURE LOOKS LIKE A SELLOUT TO ME

This was in the fourth inning. Still noticeable pockets of empty seats all over, especially at the ends of each seating zone, which leads me to believe the team didn't really sell all of these.

On this night, they continued making up for all the breaks they didn't get over those first 50 years. In the fourth, they scored six runs on eight hits. Of these eight, two were hit hard. Of the other six, five were soft grounders that found holes in the infield, and one, hit by Belt, bounced right in front of the plate and took a huge hop and cleared Freddie Freeman's glove by a foot or two, ending up as a double down the right-field line. As soon as the inning ended, a sizable group of fans headed for the exits. After four innings. They certainly weren't all leaving to watch the Warriors game. It wasn't even a marathon game or anything; it took 2:39 to play the whole thing, and that was with a 22-minute bottom of the fourth.

The real torture would be staying until the end of the game. This was taken in the bottom of the 8th.

Bleachers in the top of the 9th.

This was one of the most subdued crowds I had ever seen there. They cheered during the six-run rally, but that was really it. Aside from when Cain had two strikes on Jordan Schafer, they didn't cheer at all with two strikes on Atlanta batters. We also had decent fans sitting near us, which I guess was just luck of the draw. They seemed to have a general understanding of the game, save for a guy yelling to turn two when the bases were empty and everyone (at least 90% of those in attendance) acting as if routine flyouts were homers. They actually did hit one homer on the night when Pagan went yard in the sixth. "You Dropped A Bomb On Me" is arguably the best home run song in the majors. I also found it funny that nobody, save for my diehard friend, sang along with "Bye Bye Baby" when the inning ended. It's one of the best traditions in baseball.

In all, despite the rotten outcome, it was a nice night at a very nice place to see a game.

I'll be back there on Tuesday to see Strasburg take the hill. Hope to see everyone there on the 29th and 30th.

While the A's were on the road, I ended up at AT&T Park on two separate occasions. Here's a bit of insight as to what goes on at that peculiar place.

The sausages were at the next stand. I put up with this guy for 20 minutes, and he was in the wrong line.

San Francisco's catcher comes to bat to lead off the bottom of the ninth inning against Ronald Belisario. On a full count, he hits a home run. Of course.

Did I still have a good time? Yes, actually. I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch and got to watch a thrilling game, despite the unfortunate ending.

Shortly after first pitch. One out into the game, to be exact.

Usually, the place is pretty full during the middle innings. Not on this night. There were visible pockets of empty seats everywhere, even in the bleachers, which are usually quite crowded.

SURE LOOKS LIKE A SELLOUT TO ME

This was in the fourth inning. Still noticeable pockets of empty seats all over, especially at the ends of each seating zone, which leads me to believe the team didn't really sell all of these.

The real torture would be staying until the end of the game. This was taken in the bottom of the 8th.

Bleachers in the top of the 9th.

In all, despite the rotten outcome, it was a nice night at a very nice place to see a game.

I'll be back there on Tuesday to see Strasburg take the hill. Hope to see everyone there on the 29th and 30th.

GOG 2013 #15 - De Rangers are DeRanged! (Answers Posted!)

2013-05-19T18:14:57Z

Stuff

Fangraphs A's page

Lone Star Ball

Probable Pitchers

Do Your Homework! Score Your Last GOG - #14 Royal Pains

The Questions

1. Series Outcome, 3 Games. [3 points]

2. SLuGging. As of Sunday, the Texas Rangers lead the AL in HRs, and are second in Slugging% at .448. The Oakland A's, after a strong start, are only Slugging .394, though they do have 92 doubles. For each team, guess: Doubles / Homeruns (3 points each, or 1 point for +/-1). Do they exceed their Slugging% (as listed above). [3 points each, then 1 point each, 14 possible]

3. Straily is in a pretty good position: it doesn't seem to matter how well he pitches, he gets to keep his rotation spot. For now, right? Anyway, Dan Straily has an FIP of 4.18, far better than his ERA of 7.27. So, let's look at peripherals. Over or Under (or Tie, if possible): K/9, 9.35 / BB/9, 4.15 / HR/9, 1.04 / BABIP .319 / GB/FB .97. [1 point each, 5 total]

4. Yu's 130 (Different) Pitches. Yu Darvish threw 130 pitches last start, to some controversy. Less controversial, perhaps, is the fact that he is just killing the opposition, and if you've seen this GIF you'll understand why. Guess his: IP / R / BB / K / # Pitches Thrown (+/-3; an extra 3 points if you hit it on the nose). [2 points each, plus 3 bonus, 13 possible]

5. All Star Josh. Josh Donaldson is today's Oakland A's. Does he hit a HR? Does he make an Error? Does he start an around-the-horn DP? Does he K with RiSP? [1 point each, 4 total]

6. Where would we be... without the Pen? Last year, Fangraphs introduced their reliever stat, Shutdown or Meltdown, meaning they exceed +/- .060 WPA. Name a pitcher from each team that gets a Shutdown and one who gets a Meltdown ("None" is acceptable for any of these). Do we see a Cook-Doolittle-Balfour combination (in any order) to close out a Win for some other pitcher (need not be the starter)? [2 points each, then 1 point, 9 total]

7. Obligatory WPA. Which position player has the Highest Single-Game WPA over the entire series? For each team, guess 1, 2, or 3 players, for a complementary score of 5 points, then 3 points, then 2 points. [Up to 5 points each, 10 possible.]

(Possible points = 58.)

Answers must be posted by Gametime (Monday, 5:05 p.m., left coast time).

Stuff

Fangraphs A's page

Lone Star Ball

Probable Pitchers

Do Your Homework! Score Your Last GOG - #14 Royal Pains

The Questions

1. Series Outcome, 3 Games. [3 points]

5. All Star Josh. Josh Donaldson is today's Oakland A's. Does he hit a HR? Does he make an Error? Does he start an around-the-horn DP? Does he K with RiSP? [1 point each, 4 total]

(Possible points = 58.)

Answers must be posted by Gametime (Monday, 5:05 p.m., left coast time).

Non local fan trying to get the opinion of Bay Area fans.

2013-05-17T22:19:44Z

Having been an A's fan since I was growing up in Tacoma, WA in 1986,I have never lived in the town where the A's called home. I became an A's fan based on the fact that I lived in the town of their AAA team and they beat the Mariners in my first major league game in a battle of "home teams" to me.

In the NFL when there was talk about the Seahawks moving to LA, I became furious. When the Sonics moved to OKC, I pretty much abandoned the NBA. Washington State was my homestate. When all the talk of the A's possibly moving to San Jose came up, I was and am in support of it as it is something that "should" help the A's.

My question is for those that are actual fans from the Bay Area.

If Oakland does ever move to San Jose in the year 2265 after the committee finally decides. What will your thoughts on the A's be? Will you abandon them since they moved? I imagine many would prefer the team find a way to stay in Oakland, if that happens then this is a pointless conversation. If they moved to San Jose, will your loyalties change or will you continue to support the green and gold?

My question is for those that are actual fans from the Bay Area.

A's Team Performance

2013-05-17T07:50:39Z

This is a personal view on this subject - just a comment I was trying to make to Alex Hall's article on Brandon Moss, which evolved into the theory below . . .

There are two aspects of Moss' performance in 2013 that trouble me:

1) He would be more valuable as a homerun hitter, as a 5th bat in the lineup. Honestly, I was hoping for that this year, regardless of regression features.

2) I was also hoping that, being one of the older players on the team, he could become a leader of sorts in the clubhouse. However, that does not seem to be happening - whether because he feels concerned about his own performance, or whether because of some outside worries.

The A's give currently a "disjointed" feeling, as if they are not a TEAM, but an assortment of players with individual worries to solve. I hope I am wrong, but I do not perceive the "lightness of being" that permeated the team in 2012. And, without that "lightness", the A's are just another group of players, assembled by management and dressed in the same uniform. In Moss' case, having introduced himself as a standout homerun hitting, middle of the order guy, he is an integral part of the "team" feeling on the A's. He is an "authority figure", just like Cespedes (even if Cespedes cannot converse freely with his teammates); therefore, these two players have a tremendous psychological impact on the other players. Among them, Donaldson, Reddick, and Crisp are the only ones who have a comparable "image weight."

Therefore, we have that of the key (in authority and run-producing performance) five players at this time; only Donaldson - and possibly Crisp - are being productive as hoped for. Two out of five is not enough to keep the team battling for a first spot in the Division! Taking into account that everybody goes through periodic slumps, the roster was constructed in Billy Beane's mind to withstand, maybe, two out of the five being in a slump. That is, three of these five key players would be expected to be in good form at any given time. And I am not ignoring the other players, since that they are not the figures to impose in the clubhouse, and are a "mixed bag" - like Lowrie with the double image of a good bat and relatively poor D, or Smith with the dubious image of a sometimes fielding DH.

The A's cannot afford to have Cespedes, Reddick, and Moss not producing up to optimistic expectations. Statistics being descriptive (in a PAST tense), it is somewhat irrelevant whether these players should or should not regress to a mean. These are, except for Crisp, young men, who do not have years of track record behind them; if they are still improving and learning, statistics from the previous one or two years should not be the absolute determining factor. So, as in any organization, blame for faulty performance lies with "management" - in our case, Melvin and the coaching staff - to figure out what is bothering these players, for them to produce a less-than-expected performance. And platitudes about it being too early, or not worrying about Cespedes' performance, or not observing Reddick's being influenced by his sore wrist, or not helping Moss to cover the holes in his swing, are just that, platitudes to avoid disturbing the pond.

Management's job is often to "keep peace in the family," when going is good. However, the real challenge comes when "going gets rough" - that is when subtle psychological fine-tuning is needed, particularly with primadonnas - which baseball players are, being part of an entertainment industry (just like so many Hollywood stars and starlets). That is the reason for the "Shake Up the Roster" cry, to generate some passion among these starlets, and have them performing as stars under suitable emotional stress. After all, we know that a certain amount of stress is needed to feel truly alive and challenged in life!

This is a personal view on this subject - just a comment I was trying to make to Alex Hall's article on Brandon Moss, which evolved into the theory below . . .

There are two aspects of Moss' performance in 2013 that trouble me:

1) He would be more valuable as a homerun hitter, as a 5th bat in the lineup. Honestly, I was hoping for that this year, regardless of regression features.

On Being a Fan

2013-05-16T04:38:40Z

Sometimes, usually when the team is doing particularly well or particularly poorly, I reflect on what it means to be a fan. The pain and the joy; the nostalgia and the melancholy. The A's recent performance, dating back to the strong finish after Bob Melvin took over in 2011, has given me many opportunities to reflect on what it means to me to be a fan. I'm sure that better writers and smarter people have written on this topic, but here are my thoughts anyway. I'll try to keep it brief.

I understand that not everyone is a fan in the same way, and the varying types of fandom are a good thing. I consider myself a serious fan; not in the sense that I find no fun in it, or have a vast intellectual understanding of the game, but because the outcome of the games, win or lose, can have a profound impact on my mood and the way I perceive the world. Essentially giving up a bit of myself and my sense of well-being, and putting it in the hands of 25 strangers. It feels absolutely foolish and futile at times, or sublime and edifying at others. The catch is that those two states are not necessarily in direct correlation to the performance of the team. Some of my most alienated feelings as a fan came after game 162 last year, but some of my highest highs came after they were eliminated by the Tigers.
Some of the most beautiful baseball moments can come during a meaningless September game between two non-contenders. Plays made, or not made, by relatively anonymous journeymen or non-prospects getting their cup of coffee. I'm as much of a fan then as during a pennant race. But do I like those days because they're so easy? No pressure, so just as there is little risk, there is little reward? The lows don't feel as low when you're already down.
As I consider these matters, I find myself coming back to a couple questions:

Are the highs worth the lows?

What am I a fan of? Laundry (old cliche, but it holds weight), or an idea, or a geographic location?

To answer briefly: it doesn't matter and I don't know.

Despite the camaraderie of being a fan, it can be a terribly lonely feeling of alienation. Because, no matter how well the team does, I'm not really a part of it. I'm still just watching a group of strangers do incredible things and shouting "me too!" in hopes that my part in this will somehow be validated. Yet, it's not just grasping for glory. When the team hurts, I hurt too. Just as I can't make myself any more a part of the good, I can't make myself any less a part of the bad.

As you might be able to tell, I approach being a fan almost with a bit of mysticism. Sure, I can point to my life circumstances that more-or-less led me here, and I could probably come up with psychological and sociological explanations for the feelings I feel, but that seems largely irrelevant to me.
I feel like I keep going around in circles, but I inevitably come back to the realization that I am a fan of the Oakland Athletics. Win or lose, good or bad, I'm here.

Are the highs worth the lows?

What am I a fan of? Laundry (old cliche, but it holds weight), or an idea, or a geographic location?

To answer briefly: it doesn't matter and I don't know.

GOG 2013 #14 Royal Pains (Answers Posted)

2013-05-16T01:26:08Z

The A's limp into the weekend series against the Royals having lost their last three series since winning in NY! Let's hope the A's are a Royal pain in KC's you-know-what!

Stuff:

Them

Probable Pitchers

Do your homework

The Questions:

1. Series Outcome: (3 games) (3 points)

2. Hot Coco: Crisp is back! How does he do in his first full series back from the DL? Guess his PA / H / XBH / K / BB for the series. (2 points each) (10 total)

3. Big Bats: Both Billy Butler and Alex Gordon have been hot lately for KC. How do they compare with Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes? For each pair of batters combined stats, guess which pair has: More Hits / More XBH / More RBI / Fewer K for the series? Guess A's / Royals / Tie for each. (2 points each) (8 total)

4. Pair of Aces: I'll anoint James Sheilds as KC's Ace. You get to choose the A's Ace. Let's pit them against each other (steel cage not required). Pick one A's starting pitcher to compare to Sheilds. Guess Sheilds / / Tie for who has: More IP / Fewer ER / More K / Fewer BB in his start. (You must state your starting pitcher even if you're going to guess Shields for all guesses so we know who you're comparing him to!) (2 points each) (8 total)

5. High WPA: Name the position players with the highest WPA for each team, each game. That makes 6 total guesses (you can name the same player twice if you think they'll do it twice). It does not matter which game the player has the highest WPA. (That is, if you guess "Cespedes," he can lead the A's in any of the three games for you to score points. If he leads in two games, you only get points for one, unless you name him twice.) (2 points each) (12 total)

6. At the Ballpark: I'll be at the Saturday Night game, so here's a grab-bag of questions about that game.

a) Which color wins the Dot Race (Green/Gold/White)? (1 point)

b) Which hat hides the ball in the Cap Caper (1 / 2 / 3)? (1 point)

c) How many minutes does the Fireworks Show last (+/- 1 minute)? (1 point)

d) What's the attendance (+/- 2000)? (1 point)

e) Most importantly, do the A's win on Saturday? (1 point) (5 points total)

47 points total. Guesses due by 7pm on Friday.

The A's limp into the weekend series against the Royals having lost their last three series since winning in NY! Let's hope the A's are a Royal pain in KC's you-know-what!

Stuff:

Them

Probable Pitchers

Do your homework

The Questions:

1. Series Outcome: (3 games) (3 points)

2. Hot Coco: Crisp is back! How does he do in his first full series back from the DL? Guess his PA / H / XBH / K / BB for the series. (2 points each) (10 total)

6. At the Ballpark: I'll be at the Saturday Night game, so here's a grab-bag of questions about that game.

a) Which color wins the Dot Race (Green/Gold/White)? (1 point)

b) Which hat hides the ball in the Cap Caper (1 / 2 / 3)? (1 point)

c) How many minutes does the Fireworks Show last (+/- 1 minute)? (1 point)

d) What's the attendance (+/- 2000)? (1 point)

e) Most importantly, do the A's win on Saturday? (1 point) (5 points total)

47 points total. Guesses due by 7pm on Friday.

Josh Donaldson's BABIP - hot streak or the new David Wright?

2013-05-14T16:19:55Z

In a recent post on The Hardball Times, a Mets fan author discusses whether Moneyball really has changed, as many have claimed. While that would be a fun topic to discuss, what I'm more interested in talking out loud about is his assessment of Josh Donaldson.

Donaldson obviously has been important to the Athletics' offense in the first six weeks of this season, hitting .299/.374/.500, even improving on his much-improved second half from last year (.290/.356/.489). The author says he's Billy Beane's wildest dreams coming true - a former first-round pick finally reaching his potential a bit older than expected.

But then a commenter asks what's so great about Donaldson, since his batting average on balls in play is unsustainably high. It's just a hot streak right now and the projections have him cooling off and putting up more pedestrian numbers for the full season (ZIPS has him falling to .260/.328/.430).

To be fair, that's a common thought. But is it just a hot streak, or might his BABIP be sustainable?

Donaldson's BABIP is .333 right now (.323 in the second half last year), so it's better than league average (~.295) and better than his major-league career before this season (.272 through 328 plate appearances).

Certain hitters do sustain BABIPs that high, though. Looking quickly at the past 10 seasons, guys like David Wright (.340), Howard (is it Howie?) Kendrick (.339), Shin-Soo Choo (.354), even A's favorite Jack Cust (.338) have maintained a BABIP better than Donaldson's through 2,500-plus plate appearances.

So my question is, if we're trying to guess what Josh Donaldson rest-of-year looks like, do we simply regress his BABIP to the mean and say, "hot start, but Céspedes and his .215 BABIP better take his place" or is Josh Donaldson actually David Wright?

Poll

Will Josh Donaldson maintain his high BABIP?

Times they are a'Changin': Understanding Jarrod Parker's Struggles

2013-05-13T00:49:32Z

Editors' Note: This is another in a series of FanPosts from those AN members looking towards a weekly front page writing gig. This note will appear above every FanPost for this purpose. Community: please provide feedback and/or recs where you see appropriate.

Thanks! - cuppingmaster

A few weeks ago I discussed this season's struggles from Brett Anderson. Unfortunately, Brett isn't the only A's starter who has failed to live up to our lofty expectations this season. As of the time of this writing, Jarrod Parker, who many of us expected to be one of our top-line pitchers, stands with a unsightly 6.86 ERA.

Ouch. It hurts to even type that.

Even if we attempt to remove defense from the equation by using FIP, that doesn't help much. His FIP is 6.63. In this case, his FIP and his ERA seem to be pretty much in line. They are in agreement: Jarrod Parker just hasn't pitched very well this year. Not by any measure.

Unlike with Brett Anderson, it's a little more difficult to understand the root cause of Jarrod Parker's struggles. There are a lot of different things going on, but with the help of some more advanced statistics, we can try to pinpoint a few of Parker's key issues.

When you look at Parker's numbers this year compared to last year's, a few things should jump right of the page. One is that he's giving up a lot more walks- his BB% this year is 11.7%, whereas it was 8.4% last year. That's almost a 40% increase in BB%! Increased walks are not a good thing- more walks means more pitches, more runners on base, and being behind in more counts which increases the chance of leaving hittable pitches over the plate.

So why is Parker's walk rate so increased? Jarrod has certainly looked very wild here in the early going. Strangely, though, when you check his Zone%, which is the percentage of pitches that he throws inside the strike zone, he's actually throwing strikes at a higher percentage than last year (he's at 44.6% for this season, versus 42.2% last year). That doesn't make any sense...

We need to take a closer look at some of his pitches. Brooks Baseball, which is a truly incredible resource for evaluating pitcher performance, keeps track of many different statistics, including how much each individual pitch thrown by a pitcher moves. It sorts the data by pitch type, so you can take a look at the average fastball or the average changeup. What's especially cool is you can run splits from year to year- so we can take a look at how his pitches are moving this year versus last year, and how batters are responding to those pitches.

Something that immediately stands out is that Parker is getting fewer swings from his main pitches: his fastball and his changeup. What's especially striking (no pun intended) is that last year, batters swung at 55% of his changeups; this year, they're only swinging at 46%. In fact, batters are laying off of all of Parker's offerings. FanGraphs keeps track of a cool statistic called OSwing%, which is how often batters swing at pitchers out of the zone. Parker's numbers there are significantly down, which implies that his pitches aren't even close to the zone. He's not getting squeezed: he's just not fooling batters the same way he was last year.

Another significant difference between 2013 and 2012 is in Parker's ability to induce weak contact. One of the best types of contact for a pitcher is an infield fly ball, because an infield fly is almost always an out. As strange as it sounds, infield flies are actually a very hot topic in sabermetrics right now. In fact, FanGraphs just recently changed their formula for FIP to give infield flies the same value as strikeouts, because they so rarely go for a hit.

Last year, Parker had an IFFB% (infield-fly ball percentage) of 10.6%, which was good for #26 in the whole major leagues. This year, his IFFB% has dropped all the way to 0% (!!!). He has not allowed a single infield fly yet this season, whereas last year it was a huge part of his run prevention strategy. On the flip side, he's giving up more hard-hit balls than ever: his HR/FB% is a whopping 17%, more than doubling from his 6.8% rate last season. To put it more simply, his infield flies from last year, which were automatic outs, have been replaced with home runs, which are automatic runs. In other words: YIKES.

Basically, Parker's problems in 2013 are multiple: he's missing his spots, and he's not fooling anyone with his changeup. He gets behind in counts, which puts him in a position where he has to groove his pitches down the middle of the plate, and he's getting hit hard when he does throw strikes.

It cannot be stressed enough how important Parker's changeup is to his arsenal. Last year, Parker's changeup was a bona fide elite pitch. FanGraphs keeps track of pitch values, and last year Parker's changeup ranked 6th in the league, two spots above some dude named Felix Hernandez (for those keeping score at home, Tommy Milone was #4!). Its value on the year was +11.7, meaning his changeup prevented 11.7 runs above average over the course of the season, which is quite impressive.

This year? His changeup is already at -2.5, meaning he's giving up 2.5 more runs than average with his changeup.

Whew! That's a lot. The Cliffs Notes/tl;dr version:

* Parker is walking lots of people

* He's not getting people to swing at his changeup

* He's giving up more solid contact and significantly less weak contact

* His changeup, which was truly elite last year, has actually been a minus for him so far

The key for Parker going forward will be fixing his control, specifically of that changeup. His ability to prevent runs centers around that, and if he can get it back in form, I think we'll see a much improved Jarrod Parker going forward.

Thanks! - cuppingmaster

Ouch. It hurts to even type that.

This year? His changeup is already at -2.5, meaning he's giving up 2.5 more runs than average with his changeup.

Whew! That's a lot. The Cliffs Notes/tl;dr version:

* Parker is walking lots of people

* He's not getting people to swing at his changeup

* He's giving up more solid contact and significantly less weak contact

* His changeup, which was truly elite last year, has actually been a minus for him so far

GOG 2013 #13: "Get. Off. My. Lawn." (Answers Posted)

2013-05-12T22:52:03Z

Don't worry. Everything is going to be just fine. Let's set the WayBack Machine to May 12, 2012. Now, what do you see?

TEXAS 22-12

OAKLAND 18-16 4.0 GB

What don't you see? Yoenis Cespedes. He hasn't played for nearly a week, and he went on the DL today. Brett Anderson is already there, of course. So is Kila Ka'aihue, which was actually a cause for concern during this dark time, so many months ago.

Back in our own time, as I tap out these words, the Texas Rangers are pounding the living crap out of the Astros. 12-1 through 4 1/2. But hey, Astros. Right?

The A's haven't played the Rangers yet this season. They're going to spending a lot of time together in the next couple of weeks. This is our Division. These guys are in our way. Let's turn the hose on them.

After all, we've got them right where we want them.

SCORE YOUR LAST GOG

THE QUESTIONS (54 points)

1. Series Outcome (3 points) Texas 2-1

2. The Bad Man From Bad Kissingen Rangers Super-Sub Jeff Baker was born in Bad Kissingen, Germany. I'm guessing Army Brat, here. He's had an unobtrusively fine season, playing here and there. Predict his AB/H/XBH (2 points each) Through Saturday's game, Baker has handled 34 Chances without an Error. Is he charged with an Error during the Series? (1 point) Now, do the same for his A's counterpart, Adam Rosales (14 points total) Baker: 3/1/0/No Rosales: 6/1/0/Yes

3. Fun With OPS A simple proposition. We'll take four guys: Jed Lowrie, Josh Donaldson, Ian Kinsler, and Lance Berkman. Will their respective OPS (through Sunday's games) be higher, lower, or unchanged at the end of this Series? (2 points each, 8 total) Donaldson Higher, Everybody Else: Lower

4. Bullpen Connect 4 For each team, name the Relief Pitcher who:

a) Pitches the most Innings

b) Gives up the most Hits

c) Walks the most Batters

d) Notches the most Strikeouts (2 points per RP, 4 per category)

A tie in any category counts for points. Zeros for any category do not constitute a tie. No points for that team in that category, unless you specifically guess "zero" or "nobody". Take an extra 3 points if you correctly guess both Pitchers in at least one category. Take an extra 4 points if you correctly guess either team's pitchers in all four categories. 4 points max for this part. (23 points, if you run the table!) INNINGS PITCHED: Chavez/Scheppers HITS: Chavez, Cook/Ortiz, Ross, Nathan, Kirkman, Frasor WALKS: Chavez/Nathan STRIKEOUTS: Doolittle/Ortiz, Kirkman

5. Dude, We're Gonna (Game) Score! Us: A.J. Griffin, Bartolo Colon, and Dan Straily. Them: Justin Grimm, Derek Holland, and Alexi Ogando. Who posts the highest Game Score? Who posts the lowest Game Score? (3 points each, 6 total) HIGH: Griffin LOW: Grimm

Answers due by 7:05 PDT Monday. Good Luck, and Let's Go A's

Don't worry. Everything is going to be just fine. Let's set the WayBack Machine to May 12, 2012. Now, what do you see?

TEXAS 22-12

OAKLAND 18-16 4.0 GB

Back in our own time, as I tap out these words, the Texas Rangers are pounding the living crap out of the Astros. 12-1 through 4 1/2. But hey, Astros. Right?

After all, we've got them right where we want them.

SCORE YOUR LAST GOG

THE QUESTIONS (54 points)

1. Series Outcome (3 points) Texas 2-1

4. Bullpen Connect 4 For each team, name the Relief Pitcher who:

a) Pitches the most Innings

b) Gives up the most Hits

c) Walks the most Batters

d) Notches the most Strikeouts (2 points per RP, 4 per category)

Answers due by 7:05 PDT Monday. Good Luck, and Let's Go A's

36 Game Check-up

2013-05-12T00:04:13Z

So, a lot of us are wondering what the hell is going on so far. This team leads the league in runs scored, but also has been shutout more than any other team. I seriously can't recall a "normal" game where we won 4-2, pitched well, manufactured a couple runs, and hit one (singular) homerun... just a quality start and an offensive performance that mirrors the way a "good team" would win ball games day in and day out. I wrote an article in the offseason about how many wins/losses you could expect from a team that distributed runs the way the 2012 A's did, and the amount of variance you could expect from chance alone.

So what's the problem, well it's still early... the variance of our run differential is high (mostly because we've only play 36 games), but let's take a look at the difference between this year and last year.

	2012 Oakland A's	2013 Oakland A's
Average Run Differential	.5568	.1351
Standard Deviation of Run Differential	4.17	4.92
Correlation of Runs Scored/Allowed	0.027	-0.16

What stands out? On average we're winning by less than we were last year, sign of a team that isn't as good (don't worry, at this point this doesn't mean much). There's more noise in our data- wins/losses are by a larger margin, which makes it hard to tell how good we really are, and oddly the correlation of our runs scored and allowed is negative- when we score a lot, we give up a little, and vice versa. If you're pitching performance has nothing to do with you offensive performance on the same night, you'd expect a correlation close to zero, like we saw last year.

What to expect? Well, nobody knows what the run differential will be by the end of the year. I'd love to see .5568 again but time will tell. Here's an example of how our uncertainty in what our current run differential changes throughout the season due to the increase in sample size. Remember, this year's run differential is really just a sample (36 of 162) and even a whole season is really only a sample of a team that plays an infinite number of games.

In short, we'll have about twice as much confidence after 162 as we do after 36 games. Right now the standard error is about .75 runs per game and after 162 games it will be .35 runs per game. You don't need to understand this chart, just visually seeing the impact of an increased sample size should help conceptualize things. If you're asking wouldn't we gain twice as much confidence going from 81 to 162 games? No, because the confidence doesn't change linearly, but rather by the square root of time.

If we assumed this year's team is exactly as good as last year's team we probably would have won 22 games (most likely). But at the same time we'd have 18 wins or less 19.90% of the time - this is assuming we simulated 1,000 seasons with a run differential and variance of run differential identical to last year's team. We're a little unlucky thus far, but it's not exactly like being struck by lightning either. If we keep scoring and giving up runs the way we currently are, we're probably going to win 86 games with about a 5% chance that we win 94 games or more... but that assumes we don't play any better than we have been, I think this team has better baseball in it than what the first 36 games have shown. These estimates change with every game we play, and if we did the same thing at this point in time last year we probably would've been on pace to lose 100 games.

So, what to take from all of this? Nothing really, I just wanted the waste some of your time and make you think a little bit. There are a few odd things thus far that should change by the end of the season, we're a little unlucky thus far and it's too early to really tell much. Hopefully the starting pitching stabilizes a little bit, that's been the difference from a fundamental standpoint. We know the offense strikeouts a lot, and hits a lot of homeruns and the bullpen is lights out. Our starting pitching is just distributing runs too wildly. Our wins should be a function of the offense's wild run distribution with the pitching being fairly constant- instead they're both wild leading to the uncertainty and prolonged win/loss streaks. If/when this happens we'll starting playing more of those 4-2 games that help us sleep a little better at night. It's really not that bad of a start thus far. We're doing a lot right, just lacking some consistency.

	2012 Oakland A's	2013 Oakland A's
Average Run Differential	.5568	.1351
Standard Deviation of Run Differential	4.17	4.92
Correlation of Runs Scored/Allowed	0.027	-0.16

How would the courts have treated a protest of Angel Hernandez's call?

2013-05-11T02:59:28Z

I'm finishing my second-year as a law student at the University of San Francisco, and I figured I would procrastinate just a little bit longer at finishing my Income Tax exam studying with a post about Angel Hernandez's blown home run call in Wednesday's A's-Indians game. For those people who are reading this from my link from Facebook and are not necessarily baseball fans, a little review: Hernandez, as the second base umpire and as the crew chief that day, twice ruled a ball that should have been called a home run as in play, a double resulting. First he did so on the field of play, and the second after viewing a replay. Everyone, including Major League Baseball, agrees that the replay clearly shows the ball hit a railing above a yellow law which by ground rule is considered a home run.

However, Major League Baseball declined to reverse the decision, as the decision of whether a ball went above or below a line is a judgment call, even if reviewable on replay. Baseball does provide for a procedure to protest a game, but MLB strictly refuses to reverse "judgment calls," only reversing umpire errors that stem from incorrectly applying a rule, and only if those errors had a significant chance to affect the result of the game (see Angels v. Astros, May 9, 2013 (misapplication of rule requiring Astro's substituted pitcher to face at least one batter not reversed as moot, as Angels won the game)). A successfully protested game is resumed from the point of the error.

The law has a similar concept in terms of appealing the decisions of a trial court. Legal questions are divided into two categories, questions of law and questions of fact (there is a third category of "mixed questions of law and fact" which I need not get into). In the context of a jury trial, the entity that decides question of law is the judge, and the entity that decides questions of fact is the jury (as the trier of fact). This is why a jury is instructed on the law by the judge, but it is up to the jury to decide how the facts it finds fits into the judge's instructions.

On appeal, each of these determinations are reviewed under two different standards. Questions of law are reviewed de novo by an appeals court, meaning the appeals court decides these questions as if they were the court of first instance, with no deference to the decision of the trial judge. Questions of fact, however, are reviewed with extremely high deference to the findings of the jury. An appeals court will only reverse the findings of the trier of fact if there is no evidence that was put before it that would support a rational jury finding in the way it did. However, a reversal of the findings does not necessarily mean a reversal of the judgment. The appeals court may find that despite an error (in either law or fact), the case still would have resulted in the same way, a concept known as "harmless error."

And so we turn back to baseball. In the case of the Angels-Astros game on Thursday, there was an error in law, which baseball has acknowledged and taken public steps to admonish the umpires involved, including fining the umpires and suspending them for two or three games. If we change a fact, like, the Astros were already leading by 15 runs late in the game and ended up winning, MLB could find there was error, but it was not of a magnitude that would have changed the result.

In the case of the A's-Indians game on Wednesday, MLB does not provide for any way to reverse an on-field "judgment call," which is analogous to a "question of fact." Most of the time, this is not a big deal. There was a memorable incident a few years ago in which umpire Jim Joyce, umpiring first base, incorrectly ruled a batter safe instead of ruling the batter out for what would have completed a perfect game. This was not a reviewable play, and MLB declined to reverse the on-field call just to award a statistical perfect game.

However, let's consider this question of fact the way an appeals court would. An appeals court would first note that questions of fact are reviewed to determine whether any of the evidence presented to the umpire could rationally support the finding of "OUT." In this case, Jim Joyce had only what he could see on the field, which was complicated by being slightly out of position to see the out cleanly and also the pitcher slightly bobbled the ball.

Note that the appeals court can't consider replays because Jim Joyce didn't get to see replays. Similarly, trial courts also have Rules of Evidence that limit what juries get to see (you may recall that one of the common responses to the not guilty verdict in the Casey Anthony trial was that the jury didn't get to see what the rest of us got to see) for certain policy reasons (sometimes because the evidence would only confuse the jury or would waste time). One of the reasons for limiting replay in baseball is that replay review takes time in a game where one of the common complaints is that the game takes too long. The appeals court in our Jim Joyce scenario can only consider what Jim Joyce would have been able to see, and so appropriately, there would never be a situation where an unreviewable judgement call would be reversed.

However, consider Angel Hernandez and the blown home run. An appeals court again would note that Hernandez's call would be sustained unless there is no evidence supporting Hernandez's finding. What Hernandez saw on the field was forgivable because it was a live action play, and on television it was unclear in real time whether the ball was a home run or not. However, Hernandez had another piece of evidence available to him, the replay review permitted under the rules. An appeals court could easily rule, as many sportswriters have, that they cannot comprehend how Hernandez and the other two umpires at the replay review box could have missed the clear video evidence that the ball changed direction on the railing above the yellow line separating a ball in play (called on the field) from a home run. So we have error. Then the appeals court would ask, is the error harmless? Absolutely not, a home run in this case would have tied the game in the top of the ninth inning. The result of the error left Oakland batter Adam Rosales at second base, and after the Indians walked two more batters, they got the third out without conceding a run, winning the game.

This gets us close to answering one common question for these "judgment call" scenarios, "Where do you draw the line?" One draws the line at the same point our courts do, when an umpire's fact is plainly unsupported by the evidence available to him under the rules, and plainly would have given the team wronged by the error and clear chance to win. One might even limit such reviews to the ninth innings of games, or even further limit such reviews to situations where the score clearly would have been tied or the wronged team would have taken the lead. In the matter of Athletics vs. Indians, reverse and remand for a re-trial from the ninth inning, two outs, tie score, Eric Sogard at bat.

Some dicta, if I might. Angel Hernandez, in his brief remarks to Oakland Athletics beatwriter Susan Slusser, said in affirming his on-field decision, "It was not evident on the TV we had that it was a home run. … I don’t know what kind of replay you had, but you can’t reverse a call unless there’s 100 percent evidence." In the California Law Review, Professor Mitchell N. Berman, Professor of Law at the University of Texas in Austin, writes a fascinating discussion about his belief that the requirement for "indisputable video evidence" which entrenches on-field calls against replay review in the NFL and proposed in other sports is too high a standard. Worth a bedtime read.

Why Hatteberg Again??

2013-05-11T02:30:40Z

Ok, I give up, why is Scott Hatteberg doing the game tonight.

They tell you nothing, just introduce him, like he's been Glenns sidekick for years. Bring him out of the blue.

Compeletly ignore and dis Fosse, by telling us nothing. I have less and less respect for Kuip simply due to the fact that he says nothing, acts like, yup here I am, with Scott.-- Been doing it for decades with him.

I don't know what their fascination with this guy is, but I am frankly sick of it.

Ray Fosse is one of the best color guys in baseball. He has a career history that is unparalleled. Yet, now, once again, we get this yutz. simply because he was part of the Money Ball team??, filling in

No explanation, no respect for Fosse, just here he is folks. Who cares about Ray Fosse, who's been doing a fabulous job for so many years.

Sorry, but I don't get it. And far more importantly its a total insult to Ray and his fans. Esp when they say absolutely nothing about why this guy is trying to fill the shoes of one of the greats.

It's disilluinoing me more and more. And I see zero reason for it, and think its a total insult to Fosse.

And it treats us like we are idiots, like we aren't noticing the change, which has no explanation.

Ok, I give up, why is Scott Hatteberg doing the game tonight.

They tell you nothing, just introduce him, like he's been Glenns sidekick for years. Bring him out of the blue.

I don't know what their fascination with this guy is, but I am frankly sick of it.

No explanation, no respect for Fosse, just here he is folks. Who cares about Ray Fosse, who's been doing a fabulous job for so many years.

Sorry, but I don't get it. And far more importantly its a total insult to Ray and his fans. Esp when they say absolutely nothing about why this guy is trying to fill the shoes of one of the greats.

It's disilluinoing me more and more. And I see zero reason for it, and think its a total insult to Fosse.

And it treats us like we are idiots, like we aren't noticing the change, which has no explanation.

The 22.2% pole

2013-05-10T15:12:05Z

I coach a little hoop, and I often times players will say "my bad" when they make a mistake. I tell them, if you say "my bad" enough, just start staying "I suck" instead. It would have been nice for Joe Toree to say his umps were just bad and their is no excuse. They also should ALL have to face the media. Toree used to play and manage--he knows what getting ripped off is like. It SUCKS. Things DO not even out in Sports. Will Gruden ever get a Tuck call to win him a playoff game again?

The A's are clearly in one of those tough stretches. They are banged up, on a tough road trip, they are 6 weeks into the season after 6 weeks or so in Arizona, and they just have not played very crisp baseball--no pun intended. The need to tighten up their D; they need to start pitching better and make some hard decisions with their starters. Is Bartolo the same guy as last year? How about Parker? Will Gray get a chance? Tonight a very interesting game with Strailey going against a hot pitcher. Can Strailey prove he belongs? The next 6 games make for an interesting little stretch. Coco and Anderson could be back soon, and a couple of wins against Seattle and Texas can easily right the ship. The next 7 days will be very interesting in A's land.

If I had to do it over again, on my post yesterday, I would have asked, "Are the A's still hungover from 2012." Last year was such a good ride, and the team really did get a lot of national media love after the season. Lost of "Atta Boys." The A's were the Belles of the ball. That can be intoxicating. It's over, and they have got to move on. They need to catch it better, pitch it better, and be more efficient in plating a few runs vs. top flight pitching--like tonight. Raise the bar BoMel, its time to get rolling! Have a safe and enjoyable weekend AN.

Umpire Evaluation Project, c/o Adam Rosales

2013-05-10T14:17:10Z

via yourkillinmesmalls.files.wordpress.com

Are these guys really just bad at their jobs, or is there an underlying conspiracy in Major League Baseball? My guess is the latter, but I need more evidence to prove it. What I am asking here is for 2-3 volunteers who are already watching all of the A's games to just keep track of the missed calls both for and against the A's. Just post in the comments if you're interested in helping.

There's not a ton of missed calls, I would say roughly two per week in games your team plays (roughly 30 across baseball), so this wouldn't take much time at all if you're already watching the games and noticing these things. I will provide all data and analysis at the end of the season to anyone who wants it.

Ideally I would like to be able to do this for all 30 teams over a full season, but at least I am going to try to get volunteers from 5-8 teams this year, then maybe expand to 30 next year. I'm already tracking it for the Rays since I see every game. So far, we are at 8 missed calls against and 1 for.

This would be an example of what I'm looking for:

OAK at CLE

5/8 - Rosales bats in top 9th with 2 outs, bases empty, OAK trails 4-3. Rosales hits HR about 2 feet above yellow line off railing to tie the game, ball bounces back onto field, initially ruled a double. Umpires use video replay, determine inconclusive.

Umpires involved: HP--John Tumpane. 1B--Paul Nauert. 2B--Angel Hernandez. 3B--Doug Eddings.

Other examples of incorrect calls would include: all safe/out calls, fair/foul calls down the line, tagging/re-tagging bases on fly balls, bases awarded when the pitch did not hit the batter (i.e. Jeter faking his hand hurting from pitch), balks, etc. As a rule of thumb, if you're unsure, mark it down. I should stress that we need to track both calls for and against your team to determine the balance, so you have to be unbiased as far as admitting that they got a call wrong that helped you as well as all the ones they get wrong that go against you (those are the easy ones!).