Athletics Nation: FanPosts

Zonis's Off Season Charter

2009-11-09T03:00:16Z

We have seen several of our members throw out their plans for the off season, and now that we are into it, with several moves already made, I thought I would throw my hat into the ring.

The key to entering an off season is simple. You have to ask yourself and answer two key questions: What do I Have and What do I need?

This is also aided by the same parallel questions of your opponents. These questions will allow you to judge how strong you are and how strong you need to be.

What do the A's have?

The first thing we need to do is judge what the A's actually have going into the 2010 season, where the weaknesses are, were the holes in the team are, and what can be upgraded.

As it stands, the team currently looks like this.

C1: Kurt Suzuki
1B:
2B: Mark Ellis
3B:
SS: Cliff Pennington
LF:
RF:
CF: Rajai Davis
DH:

C2: Landon Powell
BN:
BN:
BN:

SP: Brett Anderson
SP: Dallas Braden
SP:
SP:
SP:

RP: Andrew Baily
RP: Joey Devine
RP: Brad Ziegler
RP: Mike Wuertz
RP: Craig Breslow
RP: Jeff Gray
RP:

That is a lot of holes to fill. Obviously, there are quite a few players that have been left out for one reason or another.

The most obvious holes that I have left all have a striking key feature, something we have been complaining about for quite some time. They are all the positions which you expect to get the bulk of your offense from. It is this reason why you might wonder if Ryan Sweeney really is meant to make the club as a starting outfielder, considering his lack of offensive prowess as a Corner Outfielder. As a Backup or Platoon Center fielder, Sweeney would be great, but this team is dying for offense, so lets try to leave ourselves open to plus offensive opportunities for now.

Arguably, one could write Eric Chavez into the Third Base slot. But as we've seen, that would be good for maybe the first week of Spring Training, and it is not worth relying on Chavez for anything, and treating him as an added bonus if he is around.

Scott Hairston performed terribly in his stint with the A's, so I am also hesitant on what to do with him.

Travis Buck and Aaron Cunningham both probably deserve chances, and should be a better offensive bet than Sweeney, though both have performed poorly in brief stints in the majors the last couple years.

Jack Cust had his down year last year, and is in for a big raise, which makes him a non-tender target with the annual flux of DH candidates around.

Daric Barton is somewhat of a wild card, flipping his minor league projection from a bad defensive, good offensive 1B to a good defensive, bad offensive 1B. I will have him on the team, but it depends on if the A's acquire a stop gap 1B. Either way, it looks like Barton will be replaces by either Wallace or Carter or Doolittle (Oh My!)

For Starting Pitching, aside from the two who are already slotted, the A's have a lot of choices of players who could be good, but are wild cards. Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, and Gio Gonzalez will likely get the nod if another veteran pitcher is not acquired, so we can probably pencil them in. Josh Outman is still recovering from TJ Surgery, and wont be available for a long time, so for now lets write him off. If another SP candidate brings himself up, a Spring Training competition will likely be the deciding factor.

In the Bullpen, the last slot is, for the most part, a spot to win in Spring Training. That slot could go to Jerry Blevins, the Usual Fodder that is the A's Longman Slot, or could go to Henry Rodriguez, who is out of options.

We look down to the Minors, and we have a crop of strong offensive prospects, of which might be ready for the Majors, but probably are not.

Brett Wallace is still being tried out at 3B, but won't likely be ready in time. The team could still give him a shot if he impresses during ST, but more likely he will be called up Mid season.

Adrian Cardenas tore up AA, but struggled in his first stint at AAA, and did decent in is second trip. I suspect he will once again return to AAA, where he will tear it up. But lets leave him there for now.

Chris Carter destroyed AA, and did well in Triple A, but will likely return there as well.

Sean Doolittle was doing well in AAA before getting injured and being out for the season. Unfortunate, because he could likely have made the team if not for the injury.

So lets update the chart with players we already have.

C1: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Daric Barton
2B: Mark Ellis
3B:
SS: Cliff Pennington
LF: Aaron Cunningham
RF: Ryan Sweeney
CF: Rajai Davis
DH:

C2: Landon Powell
BN: Travis Buck
BN: Scott Hairston
BN: Gregorio Petit

SP: Brett Anderson
SP: Dallas Braden
SP: Trevor Cahill
SP: Vince Mazzaro
SP: Gio Gonzalez

RP: Andrew Baily
RP: Joey Devine
RP: Brad Ziegler
RP: Mike Wuertz
RP: Craig Breslow
RP: Jeff Gray
RP: Jerry Blevins

So we are off to the Free Agent and Trade Market with holes at 3B and DH, and hoping for an upgrade in the outfield. Lets see what are available.

3rd Base:
Troy Glaus
Adrian Beltre
Pedro Feliz
Dan Uggla
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Matt Gamel
Brandon Wood

The first three are Free Agents, the last four are Trade Targets. Gamel would not likely work, as he has been kindly described as a butcher at 3B. Still, be might be an interesting target to acquire as a DH, assuming he can recover back to form. Brandon Wood, the perennial prospect, has been mistreated by the Anges for quite some time now. I would like to try to grab him and give him a shot myself. The Padres no longer need the services of the Kouz, but are likely to ask a lot in return for him. As for Feliz, we have already had him before, and his name was Jack Hannahan. So that leaves Adrian Beltre and Troy Glass. Beltre would be good to have, but will likely ask for a multi year, expensive deal, and with other teams vying for 3B and the A's looking at Brett Wallace as a Third Baseman, it would not be that great an idea to grab him and block Wallace (At least Wood could be shifted back to SS, and would still be cheap). Personally, I would try to grab Troy Glaus on a 1 year, get your act together and stay healthy contract and see if he can still man 3B. If he can not, shift him to Designated Hitter. Likewise, I would still try to acquire, even if it is from a division rival, Brandon Wood, and try him at 3B and Shortstop.

So my final roster, assuming that Chavez re-injures himself during ST as per annual custom, would look like so.

C1: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Daric Barton
2B: Mark Ellis
3B: Brandon Wood
SS: Cliff Pennington
LF: Aaron Cunningham
RF: Ryan Sweeney
CF: Rajai Davis
DH: Troy Glaus

C2: Landon Powell
BN: Travis Buck
BN: Scott Hairston
BN: Gregorio Petit

SP: Brett Anderson
SP: Dallas Braden
SP: Trevor Cahill
SP: Vince Mazzaro
SP: Gio Gonzalez

RP: Andrew Baily
RP: Joey Devine
RP: Brad Ziegler
RP: Mike Wuertz
RP: Craig Breslow
RP: Jeff Gray
RP: Jerry Blevins

That would leave room, if Wood, Glaus and/or Barton fail during the first half, to replace them with a Wallace, Carter and/or Cardenas. For the outfield, if they are performing well, Corey Brown and Sean Doolittle might get call ups if the current outfield can not handle itself.

This is a low cost roster, as you can tell. With the A's recent financial struggles, both attendance and media wise, not much money was brought in, and a lot was left to leave. Do I think this team can compete with the Angels? No, that's for 2011. But I think it can finish above .500.

Having fun with Pythagoras, or, who got lucky during 2009

2009-11-08T06:22:25Z

Well, another season has come and gone, without the good guys winning again. Being a numbers-guy, I'd like to take a look at how the teams in MLB performed against their Pythagorean records (in case you don't know what I'm talking about, and haven't backed out of this post, look here). I'm especially interested in who under- and over-performed against their Pythag records, and want to take a stab at figuring out why.

All of the team data in the graphs and tables below came from baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com.

First of all, let's take a look at how the teams in MLB performed this past season (the AL West teams are in bold).

Team	Rs	Ra	W%	PW%	Pythag diff
TOR	798	771	0.463	0.516	-8.55
CLE	773	865	0.401	0.449	-7.70
WSN	710	874	0.364	0.406	-6.78
OAK	759	761	0.463	0.499	-5.80
ATL	735	641	0.531	0.562	-5.09
ARI	720	782	0.432	0.462	-4.89
PIT	636	768	0.385	0.415	-4.75
BAL	741	876	0.395	0.424	-4.69
LAD	780	611	0.586	0.610	-3.80
NYM	671	757	0.432	0.445	-2.10
TBR	803	754	0.519	0.529	-1.66
CHC	707	672	0.516	0.523	-1.24
CHW	724	732	0.488	0.495	-1.19
KCR	686	842	0.401	0.407	-0.99
STL	730	640	0.562	0.560	0.30
MIN	817	765	0.534	0.530	0.60
PHI	820	709	0.574	0.566	1.28
BOS	872	736	0.586	0.577	1.53
SFG	657	611	0.543	0.533	1.63
TEX	784	740	0.537	0.526	1.72
MIL	785	818	0.494	0.481	2.05
CIN	673	723	0.481	0.467	2.30
COL	804	715	0.568	0.553	2.34
DET	743	745	0.528	0.499	4.70
LAA	883	761	0.599	0.568	5.05
FLA	772	766	0.537	0.504	5.42
HOU	643	770	0.457	0.418	6.24
SDP	638	769	0.463	0.415	7.71
NYY	915	753	0.636	0.588	7.71
SEA	640	692	0.525	0.464	9.78
average			0.500	0.500	0.038
sigma			0.070	0.060	4.868

What I've labeled as 'Pythag diff' is how many more (or fewer) games the team won as compared to their Pythag record, most easily calculated by this: Pythag diff = Games played X (W% - PW%). Games played is, or course, 162, unless you are the Cubs or the Pirates (161) or the Tigers or the Twins (163). A team with a positive difference outperformed it's Pythag record, etc. The average Pythag diff is roughly 0 (as it should be) with a standard deviation of 4.87. I have not rounded off any of these numbers in the analysis - of course, it is impossible to record a fraction of a win.

Two teams that really stand out here are the Blue Jays, who outscored their opponents by 27 runs, but won only 75 games, and the Mariners, who were outscored by 52 runs (almost 1/3 of a run per game), yet managed to win 85 games. Also, the A's should've won 81 games, but only posted 75 real wins.

Tables of numbers are fine, but it is instructive to look at the distributions. First, here are how actual winning percentages looked.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

The distribution is skewed towards the winning side - there were 16 winning teams and 14 losing teams this past season (meaning, there were a few really bad teams, like the Nats, Orioles, Indians, and Pirates).

Here's how the Pythagorean winning percentages looked.

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Now, this isn't even remotely normally distributed. At least the count is correct - there are 15 winners and 15 losers. But wow, that is a nasty-looking histogram.

Lastly, here is how the Pythag diff is distributed.

via farm3.static.flickr.com

This one would look better if not for that large number of teams that were between 6 and 4 wins below their Pythag records. Note here that we have 14 under-performers, and 16 over-achievers.

One of my pet beliefs (meaning not necessarily quantifiable) is that good teams have a tendency to make their own luck (conversely, bad teams like the A's play just good enough to lose). Of our 16 winning teams, 12 exceeded their Pythag records. So, does winning percentage correlate at all with Pythag diff?

via farm3.static.flickr.com

There is something there, although clearly there are some other factors involved (an r-squared of 0.29 means that 29% of the variation in the Pythag diff data can be explained by the winning percentage).

It may be instructive to look at the distribution of game results (net scores per game, so a ho-hum 14-13 victory is the same as a 3-2 walk-off winner) for individual teams. I went ahead and did this for the AL West, where we have one losing team (guess who) which under-performed by 5.8 wins, and three winning teams that over-performed by 1.72 wins (Texas), 5.05 wins (LA of Anaheim), and 9.78 wins (Seattle). These next four graphs are all plotted on the same scale for easy comparison.

A's

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Rangers

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Angels

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Mariners

via farm4.static.flickr.com

One standout feature of these four plots is the record in one-run games. The A's were bad in these games with a 15-23 record. Texas was 19-18 in one run games, the Angels were 27-18, and the Mariners were 35-20. Seeing this, perhaps we should look at how one-run game record impacts Pythag diff.

Side note: Seattle played 55 one-run games - that's one third of the regular season. If you''ve ever wondered why the LL guys have a tendency to go off the deep end in their game threads, stop wondering.

via farm3.static.flickr.com

OK, now we're cooking with gas. About half of the variation in Pythag diff can be explained by one-run winning percentage. Of course, teams with good one-run records also tend to have good overall records.

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Some other factors that could possibly influence under/over performing are:

Head-to-head matchups between two teams. For example (and I hate bringing this up), the Mariners were 14-5 against the A's this season. In 2006 when the A's last won the West, they outperformed Pythag by 8 wins, and went 17-2 against Seattle (that still amazes me). Last season, when the A's were only one game below Pythag, they went 10-9 against Seattle, and were 25-24 in one-run games. Toronto was also 6-12 against the Yankees despite only being out-scored by 5 runs in those 18 games).
Defense. Seattle was the best team in the majors at defensive run prevention (as measured by ERA-FIP, as listed here), while Cleveland was second worst (only the Royals were worse, and they also under-performed against their Pythag record). I did try a correlation here, but the r-squared value was only 0.1 or so. The A's ERA-FIP was +0.19, which should not surprise anyone considering we had Adam Kennedy most of the season "playing" 3B, and the occasional Cust adventure in the OF.

In conclusion, if a team wants to consistently out-perform Pythagoras, they should:

Be good at winning baseball games,
Be good at winning one-run games,
Totally own some team that you play a lot,
Be very good at converting balls in play into outs, and
Get lucky.

Your thoughts?

AFL Rising Stars Showcase Tonight on MLBN @ 5PM

2009-11-07T22:51:57Z

Fellow ANers,

The AFL Rising Stars Showcase takes place tonight, and it will be on MLB Network. Oakland A's prospects Grant Desme and Jemile Weeks are playing in the game. For those of you like me, this will be the first baseball you have watched in well over a month. Needless to say, but I am excited and have been eagerly anticipating this game.

I know this is a small post, and could actually be a Fan Shot, but no one ever looks at um anyway and I want to spread the word to as many ANers as possible.

HOPEFULLY SOMEONE HERE WILL PUT UP A GAME THREAD SO WE CAN ALL KICK IT!!

DLD - 11/07/2009 - How to Keep Yourself Occupied in the Off-Season

2009-11-07T05:50:17Z

Well AN - here is my first foray into a fan post - spurred on by 67Marquez. Partially in response to his question - "What are we gonna do now?" I wondered whether a topical DLD is better than a random one. I'll leave you to decide, AN.

You could see a movie or just skip to the short version or the 30 Second Bunny Theatre Version.

I know some of you have been neglecting your reading...so here are some suggestions for these long winter months

The Big Book of Baseball Brain Teasers
Generation A's Fans: A Family's Long Love Affair With One of Baseball's Best Team (there is an AN connection with this one!)
And if you want to wow us all with your Baseball acumen there's always this

If you have been putting off all those Honey - Do - This projects you can get your inspiration here.

You can waste a lot of time over at You Tube and might find gems like the newest version of baseball (Go here if you wanna play) or freaky stunts that also involve the tools of baseball.

But I caution you that with all the time off you might be tempted to get into a little trouble. Just don't do what they do in Florida (really?) or Minnesota. And here's an after story of what happens when the po-po need some bucks!

So - tell us AN - what WILL you be doing in the off season?? Have fun!

Greener Grass, Episode 4: The Biggest Off Season (Potential) Decision Doesn't Involve Free Agents

2009-11-06T18:51:37Z

Where is the grass greenest? Staying in the same city, we mean.

A simple question. No simple answer. The frog in my pocket and I are in a speculative mood today.

I wrote about this a while back (other markets, within the Bay Area, and San Jose's actions), it's time to do a Ken Korach style reset on the whole thing.

"We are in the top of the 4th inning, the score is Oakland..."

A slight detour, to read really good analysis about the potential future homes of our Green and Gold heroes, go here.

First and foremost this post is all about Oaktown. Or, the potential of a great city.

Many people question if Oakland is indeed a great city. What with the Mayor talking of sanctioning "sideshows" to further the "crime ridden" stigma and all, it is understandable. But Oakland really is a very cool town, go back to the link above titled "within the Bay Area" if you don't think there are good things to do in Oakland. Or you can join me on a personal tour next March in the Oakland Half Marathon and get a ground level view of some happening places.

But the question isn't, "Is there good stuff to do in Oakland?" The question is, "Is there a good place to build a ballpark in Oakland?" And after that, "What is the City of Oakland doing to help get a ballpark built?"

On Question number 1:

Chip Johnson recently wrote of a rumor that Lew Wolff was interested in building a ballpark at Middle Harbor Park. As the latest rumor, let's start there.

Not a bad view, eh?

Before we go getting gaga over the view, let us remember that this couldn't be the view over the outfield wall. Stadiums can't face west because of sun problems... mainly, the hitter wouldn't see a damn thing if that was behind the pitcher. An argument could be made that Oakland would be quite the spot for free agent pitchers with this view, but it is moot.

So, not so not moot points? An illustration!

That little green patch, below the words "San Francisco Bay" is the parkish part of Middle Harbor Park

Does anyone see any challenges in this illustration? For us, the distance between downtown, the Freeway, BART is kind of a big deal. Well, really for me, the frog in my pocket likes being away from all that stuff as he can just use the water to get to the park. I have pointed out to him that there are many big boats that come through there and he is but a little frog, so easily squished. He doesn't care.

In a nutshell, the challenges here are transportation and the Port of Oakland. The positives are big boats to look at, a potentially cool view of the Oakland skyline from inside the park and a the San Francisco skyline from around the park. But really, there is no there, there so I fear this is just a trial balloon. Developing the Port of Oakland with retail and residential and a ballpark... I am not so sure this makes a lot of economic sense for the City of Oakland.

Maybe somewhere else on the waterfront?

Site number 2 that has been rumored is Howard Terminal. Vertig0/Marine Layer did a really good piece on Howard Terminal. I am not going to try and replicate what he put there. It really speaks for itself. There are challenges. Those challenges were estimated to cost over $500 million (in the world famous HOK Study) to address way back in 2003, which eventually ruled the site out.

For the record, Howard Terminal is the blue portion labeled "67-68" just north of Jack London Square in the picture below

I think, if any waterfront site has any possibility of becoming reality, it is this one. It will be very expensive to make this happen. The City of Oakland would have to pony up a BUNCH of cash. I will say this is really hard to imagine in the current financial circumstances, but we are talking about many of the same "civic leaders" who worked out that excellent deal with the Raiders.

A quick caveat for some bloviation. As I look at the two potential places above, I have two thoughts:

The Oakland Waterfront is really already being used by a very important economic engine.
Why do the A's need to be on the waterfront anyway?

I want the A's to play in a spot that is better than the Giants place. I know, that is kind of irrational because the Giants place is really nice and something comparable is a good goal. But I would say, the best way to be better is to be different! Isn't that the key message of Moneyball? So how about a more urban locale?

Honestly, I haven't heard of much in the way of a truly urban site, like the doomed Uptown Site. One place that has been mentioned is the old Malibu Funzone/Homebase site just south of the Coliseum. It may look something like this:

Courtesy newballpark.blogspot.com

I really find this site uninspiring. I imagine that it may be able to someday create the sort of atmosphere you see outside of Fenway Park. The sort of Baseball Carnival that happens there at all home games. In the mock ups above, all that stuff behind the outfield could serve as a gathering spot with bars and eateries and such. It could potentially be more of a destination spot. There is good transportation.

There are problems though. One big one is that the entire lot cannot really be developed due to an EBMUD right of way. Through a section of the drawing above, there runs a thing called the "Southern Interceptor." This has been described to me as a "river of raw sewage" and that building something the scale of what is pictured is not a real possibility.

So, really the answer to Question 1 is, "Maybe there are good sites in Oakland." It kind of depends on Question 2, but maybe Howard Terminal? That'd be my first choice, but it may be too expensive.

Question 2... There are no real answers here. What is Oakland doing? What is Oakland willing to do? What should Oakland be willing to do? Where the heck is the plan already?

The online petition and facebook group are a little lame at this stage of the game. I signed up for the facebook group hoping to get some insight into what the actual plan is. I won't sign a petition that isn't for anything specific.

So anyway... to reset the game as my favorite Ken Korach does, "We are in the top of the 4th. The score is Oakland 1, San Jose 0. San Jose has all the bases occupied, nobody out and Clue Haywood at the plate. Oakland has Facebook Group on the hill. The lights are on but not yet taking..." Is there anyone warming up in the bullpen? Is it a kick ass Ricky Vaughn like plan for a ballpark? Inquiring minds want to know... Like, now already.

Poll

What is your preference for a future A's Stadium?

Hardy to Minnesota. What's with the early offseason trades?

2009-11-06T18:08:26Z

AN will have to find another shortstop to covet this offseason and come up with multiple trade scenarios for.

Hardy was dealt to the Twins for Carlos Gomez. I guess the Brewers will look elsewhere for pitching help, but the Michael Weurtz+ for Hardy deals won't happen now.

I'll put this out there, though: Would you have traded Rajai Davis for J.J. Hardy? Davis is probably better than Gomez, but older and doesn't have nearly as favorable of a contract situation. I would have, without thinking twice about it.

Also, like the Akinori Iwamura to Pittsburgh trade and the Jeremy Hermida to Boston trade, this seems to have happened very quickly (what, it's day 2 of the offseason!) before free agents have filed, nontenders, etc. Is this a sign of how the offseason is going to look? There have already been several articles (I'm not linking to Olney's ESPN Insider stuff, sorry) that claim a large number of guys will be nontendered creating a flood of non-superstar type players in the FA market. It's shaping up to be a strange offseason, huh?

Happy 6th Birthday, AN!

2009-11-06T16:44:30Z

Hey AN, it's been a wild ride for six years, huh? Who would've thought that this little typepad site called Athletics Nation: Baseball Country (oh yeah, that's what it was called because I didn't know how to use the typepad naming function) would become a company filled with 219 other blogs based on the AN model?

So I figured it might be fun to have a FanPost up to discuss the highlights (and if you'd like, the lowlights) of AN over the years. I'd say some I have two huge highlights for AN. The first my first interview with Billy Beane. I think Beane agreeing to the interview made me realize that this was something different and special enough that the team was taking notice. Plus Beane was just that character in Moneyball to me and it started one of my most enjoyable parts of my job. Every time I interview Beane it's a treat.

The second has been the friendships I've developed with so many people from AN. And seeing them over and over again at events like AN Day has been the biggest highlight of this experience. I truly love my friends I've developed from AN. This whole SB Nation experience wouldn't have been possible without you.

So here's a huge thank you for that. Happy birthday, AN!

facebook Members: Keep the A's in OAKLAND

2009-11-06T08:47:49Z

Help spread the word and join our Facebook group to keep the A's in Oakland where they belong. We are now at over 9,000 members and counting!!

http://www.facebook.com/letsgooakland?ref=ts

Please don't forget to click on the link to sign the petition at either the FB page or the link provided below and remember to PASS IT ON by clicking the "Suggest to Friends" link at left, and invite everyone you know to join us. Help us keep the A's in Oakland! This information will be used to present to MLB and Commissioner Bud Selig through Oakland City Officials and their new Ballpark Committee to show that we still have the great fan base that we once had.

http://letsgooakland.com/

Thank you so much for the support and Go A's!!!

OKLND. It wouldn't be the same without the A's.

Organizational Statistics: Winter Leagues

2009-11-06T06:17:20Z

Fellow ANers,

MLB.com compiles all statistics from the Winter Leagues (AFL and the Three Caribbean Leagues), and compiles them organizationally. They seem to keep it updated everyday, and its a great one stop shop to see how the A's prospects are doing. Its been especially fun watching Desme's AFL line, and box scores recently. Anywho, here's the link.....

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=oak

Keep it, save it, love it...... at least until the end of winter ball.....

Here are some updated stats for some key prospects as of 11/5/09.......

BATTERS	CLUB	LEAGUE ↓	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	SF	SAC	HBP	GIDP
	Brown, Corey	PDD	AFL	.309	16	68	10	21	4	2	4	15	5	0	21	1	0	.356	.603	.959	0	0	0	1
	Desme, Grant	PDD	AFL	.386	17	70	21	27	3	0	10	23	9	0	18	2	0	.463	.857	1.320	0	0	1	1
#	Weeks, Jemile	PDD	AFL	.309	13	55	12	17	6	3	0	7	6	0	10	4	0	.387	.527	.914	0	2	1	1
	Carson, Matt	AGU	DWL	.254	14	59	8	15	3	0	1	3	1	0	13	1	0	.290	.356	.646	0	0	2	2
#	Valdez, Alex	ESC	DWL	.364	8	33	8	12	2	2	1	7	3	1	7	2	0	.417	.636	1.053	0	1	0	0
	Carter, Chris	GSV	LMP	.212	8	33	7	7	1	0	4	6	2	0	16	0	0	.257	.606	.863	0	0	0	0
#	Wimberly, Corey	OBR	LMP	.240	7	25	6	6	0	0	0	3	1	0	6	2	0	.296	.240	.536	0	1	1	0
	Denorfia, Chris	ZUL	VWL	.222	5	18	2	4	2	0	1	1	2	1	7	0	0	.300	.500	.800	0	0	0	0
	Gil, Leonardo	CAR	VWL	.000	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0
*	Padron, Raul	CAR	VWL	.294	17	51	10	15	5	0	4	11	1	0	12	0	0	.308	.627	.935	0	0	0	3
	Petit, Gregorio	CAR	VWL	.280	23	93	12	26	3	2	0	18	10	2	18	6	4	.346	.355	.701	1	1	0	4

	PITCHERS	CLUB	LEAGUE ↓	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HB	BB	IBB	SO	WP	GIDP	WHIP	AVG
	Demel, Sam	PDD	AFL	0	0	10.50	7	0	1	2	6.0	12	9	7	0	0	2	0	6	0	0	2.33	.375
	Friend, Justin	PDD	AFL	2	1	5.68	5	0	0	0	6.1	3	5	4	0	0	4	0	6	2	0	1.11	.136
	Simmons, James	PDD	AFL	1	2	3.18	4	4	0	0	17.0	17	7	6	2	0	5	0	8	0	0	1.29	.266
	Storey, Mickey	PDD	AFL	0	0	7.50	6	0	0	0	6.0	9	5	5	1	0	2	0	6	0	1	1.83	.346
*	Ramirez, Anvioris	LIC	DWL	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2.25	.333
	Leon, Arnold	CUL	LMP	0	0	6.23	9	0	0	2	13.0	19	15	9	1	2	4	0	12	2	0	1.77	.322
	Middleton, Kyle	ARA	VWL	2	0	4.35	5	4	0	0	20.2	21	10	10	2	2	8	0	16	2	3	1.40	.263
	Patterson, Scott	LAR	VWL	1	0	1.69	6	0	2	2	5.1	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	0.75	.167
	Sharpe, Steven	ORI	VWL	0	2	4.76	3	3	0	0	11.1	11	6	6	2	2	3	1	12	4	1	1.24	.244

2010 Off-Season Blueprint

2009-11-06T04:29:52Z

Should the A's spend this offseason, or save? Should the team sign a few established veterans with question marks, or simply let the kids play?

AN seems divided. The community is struggling to reconcile its desire to be competitive and spend an available $10-15M, with the painful realization that a.) much of the organization's best internal talent is still 1-2 years away, b.) the team had the worst attendance in baseball last year, and c.) the team, as presently constructed, will not make the playoffs in '10.

There's one very unique way, and one very unique target, who allows the A's to reconcile those two stances. This post will discuss that offseason strategy after the jump.

This post will be broken up into three sections:

I. Roster Moves II. Justification/Analysis III. References/Resources

This is not typical AN style, but I think it will make it easier to navigate. As you're reading the first part, if you find a completely unsupported statement, please have faith that the explanation or citation is to follow.

I. 40-Man Roster Moves and Active Roster Decisions

A. Let Garciaparra, Kennedy, Crosby, Tomko, and Duke all leave in free agency.

B. Outright/nontender Casilla, Denorfia, and Marshall.

C. Protect FDLS, Carter, Lansford, Recker, Figuroa, and Wimberly from the Rule 5 draft by adding all six players to the 40-man roster prior to the November 20th deadline. I don't really think the team needs to protect all these guys, and I don't think they will, but I'm sticking to a clear emphasis on the future here in this post and each of these may have some future value.

D. Sign 21-year-old Cuban free agent left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman to a front-loaded, eight-year, $60-million deal.

E. That leaves exactly 40 players on the 40-man roster. Treat Eric Chavez and Brett Wallace as a "1-for-1" on the 40-man roster from the start of spring camp. Wallace currently isn't on the 40-man. But as soon as Chavez inevitably breaks down and needs to placed on the 60-day DL, immediately purchase Wallace's contract and annoint him the starting 3b, whether that happens in late March, May, or later in the season.

F. Let Eric Patterson, Travis Buck, and Aaron Cunningham get a lot of at-bats in Spring and compete for two roster slots. Let Gregorio Petit be the backup middle infielder, since he's a good defender and can play a capable shortstop. Thanks in part to drafting Grant Green, the organization has enough shortstops that it can promote internally and still survive the graduation of Petit and Pennington in the same year.

G. Explore a lot of cool offseason trades. Eventually, realize that no one wants to give up anything substantive for a reliever (Wuertz) or a left fielder coming off a horrible second half (Hairston). Keep both of them and hope the scenery changes by this July.

Here's how the 25-man roster looks on Opening Day:

13 hitters: Suzuki, Powell, Barton, Ellis, Pennington, Chavallace, Petit, Patterson, Cust, R. Davis, Sweeney, Hairston, Buckingham.

SPs: Braden, Anderson, Gonzalez, Cahill, Mazzaro, Eveland, Chapman (In the rare chance that all seven are healthy, the two least effective are optioned and join Simmons, Mortensen, and eventually a re-habbing Josh Outman in the AAA rotation).

7 relievers: Devine, Bailey, Ziegler, Wuertz, Meloan, Kilby, Gray, Breslow, Blevins (in the rare chance that all nine are healthy and effective in spring, option two of them, and they'll inevitably shuttle up and down all year anyway).

II. Justification/Analysis

The projected payroll of that group is slightly less than $50M. Given that the A's had the worst attendance in baseball last year, and no reason to expect an uptick in '10, I think that low figure is perfectly justifiable. I think that last year showed that average Bay Area consumers won't come out to watch the A's just to see a couple of big names. Even prior to falling out of contention, there wasn't a major upswing in attendance with the arrivals of O-Cab, Holliday, Giambi, and Garciaparra. So there's no reason to expect that adding Glaus or Beltre for '10 would have a positive effect upon attendance, either.

Eschewing the free agent market almost entirely, with the very notable exception of Chapman, afforded the luxury of protecting literally any Rule 5 eligible player that was even remotely intriguing and had future upside. It would be a shame to let a good player get away for nothing, only to use that roster slot to sign an aging vet who doesn't contribute to a playoff season in a one-year deal.

The above roster only has one sexy, intriguing new move, which will leave a lot of ANers flustered as they look at the exact same names who struggled to a sub-.500 season. But avoiding FAs also gives a lot of players currently in the organization an opportunity to prove themselves, and there's a lot to watch there as the season rolls on: Can Petit, Patterson, and Pennington be major leaguers? Can Barton be an everyday first baseman? Was Rajai Davis' 2009 entirely a fluke, or has he indeed made adjustments and improved as a major league hitter? Will I finally get to watch Brett Wallace play third base and make a determination for myself, instead of reading a bunch of vague, lame Internet reports and staring at pictures of his ass and legs to try make the decision? These are all questions I'm legitimately excited to see answered, and the pitching staff offers us similar ones. Avoiding free agent re-treads will give us the opportunity to answer more of those than we would've otherwise.

This thing will have to be rebuilt from the ground up. Casual fans will become attracted to this team if and when it becomes a dynastic, perpetual playoff contender and the same faces stick around for a decade instead of being flipped for prospects after three years. That's part of why I have no problem with annointing Wallace at 3b as soon as Chavez's body breaks down. Wallace turns 24 during the season next year and has had a full, successful season of AAA. I don't want a one-year stopgap; I want casual fans and their kids to get to know and grow attached to watching Brett Wallace. With a new stadium on the horizon, I hope they'll get to keeping watching him for the next 10 years.

Obviously the most radical suggested move is the signing of Chapman, especially at such a high cost. But I see no point in suggesting popular moves that are unrealistic. "We should sign Holliday on a three-year, $30M deal!" Most everyone would like that, but it would never happen. Similarly, we have to assume that signing Chapman would likely require meeting his top asking price. By now, all A's fans have hopefully accepted that Oakland is not the top destination for any free agent. That gives the team a few limited, undesirable options in free agency: 1.) pursue retreads and castoffs who don't have attractive opportunities elsewhere, or 2.) the dreaded "overpay," which is often a pejorative shorthand for "much more than the second-best offer on the table."

Clearly the team's recent free-agent signings have fallen into category #1, with mostly uninspiring results. I am advocating a radical, one-time shift to option #2 (well, until November of 2013, anyway). But I insist on quibbling with semantics here. An "overpay" implies that the player did not perform to the value of the contract he received. Thanks to his age (21), Aroldis Chapman is the extremely rare example of a coveted free agent who could actually "outperform his contract," or provide surplus value, despite accepting an offer that was signficantly higher than the second-best one on the table. That couldn't happen with most elite free agents. Mark Teixiera can't dramatically outperform his contract. He received a very handsome deal that is commensurate with his production - and that's all that the Yankees need. Tex's great season in 2009 is a perfect example - he produced 5.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which was worth $23.1M according to Fangraphs' valuation system...and that was pretty close to what he was paid, when you factor in the signing bonus of his new contract. That works out just fine...for the Yankees. Their payroll is high enough that their free agents don't need to provide surplus value.

The A's can't do that. To win, they need to strategically pursue surplus value (and the accompanying surplus risk, yes) everywhere - even in free agency.

My point is, for the offer I've suggested, no one will know if its an overpay for several years. According to Fangraphs dollar valuations, there were 39 pitchers who produced at least $15M in value this year, and 45 who produced at least $14M. The contract I've suggested puts Aroldis Chapman in an A's uniform for eight years, from age 22-29. If four of those seasons are somewhere between "very good" and "great" - which I'm defining as the top 40 or so starting pitchers in the game via Fangraphs dollar valuation - then the deal actually has surplus value for the A's, even if Chapman does nothing for the other four seasons of the deal.

Chapman's incredible upside is what makes me feel comfortable that he'll perform at the level of "top 40 MLB SP" at least a few times during his peak. Six-foot-4, 180 pounds, a fastball that's been clocked at 101, and lefthanded. The links you'll find below indicate that his pure "stuff" (especially his fastball velocity and slider movement) already rank among the best in the world.

He's probably not ready to step right into the A's rotation. But the length of the deal, and Chapman's age, actually fall in line perfectly with the A's next strong contending window. He can spend the first 1-2 years adjusting, even in the minor leagues, and will hopefully be ready to justify the team's large investment when he's 23-24 in 2011-2012. By that time, Cahill/Wallace/Cardenas/Carter & Co. will be providing tens of millions in surplus value for the big club, and Chapman's contribution will help reinforce the A's as the new AL West force. Over the course of the lengthy deal, he would contribute to several A's playoff contending teams.

Contrast that scenario with spending $5-15M combined on one-year deals for Adrian Beltre, Brett Myers, Duke, or Troy Glaus. The outlay being spent in 2010 is still approximately the same. But the most likely scenario is that the team still doesn't make the playoffs and the player moves on after the season, with the A's having earned nothing from his time here, similar to Giambi's second go-around. None of those four aforementioned players will help contribute to the next projected A's dynasty, which is why I'd prefer to avoid each of them.

Mychael Urban wrote a recent piece on his MLB blog in which he insinuated that Giambi was critical of Bob Geren this year, and that the A's brass was wary of Giambi's influence on the younger players. That anecdote is part of why I don't want to bring in any one-year rentals that cost millions of dollars. I think that 30-something veterans who have already banked tens of millions of dollars in greener pastures earlier in their career are always going to be privately cynical about Oakland's attendance, the difficulty to hit in Oakland's park, the perpetual youth movement, etc. Giambi is, by most accounts, a great guy, and even he apparently groused about the situation. It's just too easy to visualize Beltre, Myers, Glaus, and others of their ilk struggling, and doing exactly the same. Honestly? I guess I'm just at a point in my A's fandom where I'd rather watch guys who are just happy to be there, still earning their first few million and happy to be on a Major League field.

III. References/Resources

Aroldis Chapman-related rumors, including a few different authors linking him to the A's.

Three different scouting-related articles devoted to Chapman: Here, here, and here.

Blez' two-part interview with Beane at the end of the '09 season: Here and here.

Three other AN perspectives on the A's potential offseason outlook (including grover's and Taj's): Here, here, and here.

Community Prospect List #15

2009-11-06T02:55:35Z

Due to demand, I have removed much of the introductory text from the threads, as well as the stats for those whom have been voted onto the list already, in order to make it easier for people to scroll all the way down.

If you have any cases for prospects, keep them coming!

For Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.

Prospects up for Vote:

Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22

2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B

STO (oak) A+ 26 .220 .304 .330 1 8 2 14 4

KAN (oak) A 93 .254 .345 .410 8 42 18 56 22

Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39

STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48

James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

SAC (oak) AAA 23 7-7 5.72 119.2 139 47 81 0 1.55

Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

MID (oak) AA 1 0-1 16.20 76.2 5 4 1 0 2.70

STO (oak) A+ 21 5-4 3.52 3.1 64 32 111 1 1.25

Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

STO (oak) A+ 9 2-2 3.12 52 42 21 67 0 1.21

KAN (oak) A 18 4-7 3.24 100 70 40 103 0 1.10

Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09

SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48

Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

OAK MLB 11 1-0 0.53 17.0 10 4 10 0 0.82

SAC (oak) AAA 45 4-2 2.13 63.1 40 24 77 2 1.01

Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

SAC (oak) AAA 37 2-1 5.77 43.2 38 38 71 4 1.74

STO (oak) A+ 3 0-0 0.00 5 3 1 11 0 0.80

The List Thus Far

A's Community Prospect List

1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video

2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video

3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video

4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video

5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - Video - OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme

6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - Video

7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson

8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - Video

9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - Video

10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - Video

11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8)

12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - Cal Sports Profile Video

13. Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23 - 34% (of 8)

14. Max Stassi, C, Age 18 - 45% (of 8)

(Bonus video of Rashun Dixon)

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):

Mattl Sulentic, OF Anthony Recker, C Shane Peterson, OF Alex Valdez

Travis Banwart, SP Matt Spencer, OF Gregorio Petit, SS

Graham Godfrey, SP Robin Rosario, OF Tommy Everidge, 1B

Clayton Mortensen, SP Ronny Morla, SP Wilfredo Solano Joel Galarraga, C

Nino Leyja, 2B Paul Smyth Conner Crumbliss Pedro Figueroade, SP

Rashun Dixon, CF Julio Ramos Daniel Straily

James Simmons, SP Ian Krol, SP Yusuf Carter Ryan Ortiz, SP

Brett Hunter, SP Anthony Huttenlocker Carlos Hernandez, SP Ben Hornbeck, SP

Reynaldo Mateo Tyler Ladendorff Shawn Haviland, SP

Mickey Storey, SP Chris Mederos Jon Meloan Josh Horton, SS

Conner Hoehn Corey Wimberly, UTL Dan Thomas

Josh Leyland, C Justin Souza Andrew Carignan, RP

Jermaine Mitchell, CF Jared Lansford, RP Justin Marks Jason Christian, 3B

If you have a prospect you want to suggest, from this list or not on it, speak up in comments!

Poll

Who is the A's #15 Prospect?

My Rant Against The Champions And MLB In General

2009-11-06T00:42:33Z

So the evil empire did it again huh? Bought themselves another World Series ring while MLB continues to sit back and allow the uncapped structure to ruin interest in at least 1/3 of the leagues cities. Once it became apparent that the 49ers "bought' a championship in 1994 and a year later the Cowboys did the same. What did the NFL do? Change the structure and invoke a salary cap. Why is it that both sides, the players and owners, can't get together and come up with some type of agreement? It is the only major sport without a cap and the interest in the league continues to slide partly due to it.

Let's breakdown the Yankees roster for a second shall we?

3B- Alex Rodriguez 33 Million Trade with Texas

SS- Derek Jeter 21.6 Million Drafted By Yankees

1B- Mark Teixeira 20.6 Million Signed As Free Agent

SP- AJ Burnett 16.5 Million Signed As Free Agent

SP- CC Sabathia 15.3 Million Signed As Free Agent

RP- Mariano Rivera 15 Million Signed As International Free Agent

C- Jorge Posada 13.5 Million Signed As International Free Agent

OF- Johnny Damon 13 Million Signed As Free Agent

DH- Hideke Matsui 13 Million Signed As Free Agent

Total Team Salary: 208.4 Million

Only other players that came up through the Yankees system are Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Joba Chamberlin, Brett Gardner and Phil Hughes. Combined their 2009 salaries were 8.3 million, less then 1/4 of Alex Rodriguez's salary. Of the highest paid Yankees only Derek Jeter was originally drafted by the team.

In comparison let's look at other teams payrolls and highest paid players

Payroll Highest Paid Salary

32. Pittsburgh Pirates 25.2 SP- Paul Maholm 2.5

31. Florida Marlins 31 1B- Nick Johnson 5.5

30. San Diego Padres 37.8 OF- Brian Giles 9.0

29. Oakland Athletics 56.1 3B- Eric Chavez 11.5

The bottom four teams in terms of payroll combined payroll was 58 million less then the Yankees in 2009. Even more astonishing the salary of Alex Rodriguez was more then the entire rosters of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Florida Marlins, and only 5 million less then that of the entire San Diego Padres team. The Yankees payroll was 63 million more then the closest competitor, yet another New York team.

Even fans in cities like New York, Chicago and Boston cannot claim this to be fair. I wouldn't be complaining if i was a fan of the Yankees, but as a observer of all four major sports i see this as an issue MLB must deal with soon. Of course there are teams that break the mold and win despite a low payroll. Our very own A's come to mind earlier this decade as do the Florida Marlins and Minnesota Twins today. But that is the obvious minority in terms of success in MLB. While teams in smaller in the NFL like Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Arizona can be successful it just doesn't happen as much in MLB, this soley due to the fact that baseball continues to deny it's differential between large and small markets. Do you find it odd that all four of the teams that played in the LCS were top 10 in payroll? It is time that MLB does something about this sooner rather then later

Poll

Does MLB need a salary cap

DLD 11/5/09

2009-11-05T21:33:55Z

VIncente Padilla shot by his shooting instuctor. What is not clear is how much Michael Young and Ian Kinsler paid the instructor, or if VIncente was just trying to learn how to be more menacing.

Bobby Abreu and the Angels decide to play 2 more (plus an option). With any luck, the Angels will think he is still an outfielder. $19 million.

"Here is $7 million, Chad Tracy, please don't play for us."

Mr. Williams, you have a diabolical plan right? Cuz how Mark Teehan improves your club s a mystery.

You think criminals are dumb, after minute one a maricopa county deputy sheriff steals some stuff out of the defense attorneys files. ON CAMERA.

Poll

Who is behind the Vincente Padilla incident?

A Quick question for the board- Recent history?

2009-11-05T18:13:20Z

Hello. I was just wondering if someone who remembers the contracts of recent players can help me out.

In 2007 the A's traded Nick Swisher and Esteban Loaiza. I was wondering if anyone could tell me their contract status?

Was Swisher about to be a free-agent? If not does anyone know how many seasons he was under club control? If he stayed on the A's in 2008 wouold he have been a free agent in 2009?

Same with Loaiza. Was his contract with the A's due to expire at the end of the 2007 season. (I do remember he was traded before the season ended).

I know they traded Kendall and Kotsay who were still due big money from the A's during that year but I couldn't recall the contract status of Swisher or Loaiza.

No agenda or point of view from me. I just couldn't remember.

Thanks

GO A's!!

Minor League Players

2009-11-05T16:57:35Z

As we all know, the A's farm system is loaded with minor league talent. My question is how do you judge that talent? I enjoy reading John Sickles minor league blog, Keith Law, Baseball america, etc.... But everyone on the world wide web chimes in and would give their opinion whether they like the player or not. But do they just follow the player via the computer? Or do they go out and watch minor league games and see each player personally. Or are they just making crap up because they don't like the parent clubs. I'm not talking about the pro's like Keith Law or John Sickles, but just baseball fans around the world. I personally like to watch the young guys play personally and then judge their talent. Numbers are great but they do not tell the whole story. IMO, when I go to minor league game, you can tell who are more talented players and have a chance at bigs. Reading all the other websites gives some info, but some of the chuckleheads that chimes in bugs me and makes me wonder, "How the frak do you know??

In Response: 2010 Offseason Primer

2009-11-05T05:44:32Z

Grover's recent post really got my mind churning over the direction to take this offseason, and what I have concluded is as follows.......

First, I totally appreciate Grover doing all the contractual work for us, as I'm lazy with numbers, and totally accept his findings. Billy likely has, if he chooses to use it, ~$13 million after arbitration for FA acquisitions. This is where I begin to disagree with Grovers assessments, though I give props for a well thought out post. I believe that the only two FAs the A's need pursue are already on their 40 man roster, but I will get into AK and Tomko later. For now, they will be off the 40 man when the deadline passes, and its likely (GUARANTEED!!!) Billy will wait till after the Rule 5 draft in December to resign them, thus leaving open space on the 40 man roster to secure the organization's young talent. So, for now, w/o those two, Bobby, Nomar and Duke off the list, the A's would have 36 players on the 40 man roster.

Next, protecting all young talent is a must for a young rebuilding team, and losing Wimberly in the Rule 5 is unacceptable in my view. At the least, he's a good trade chip, but IMO he's our future utility/PH/PR guy. Thus, I add Wimberly to Grover's list of Carter, FLDS, Figueroa, Recker, and Lansford. ALL 6 MUST BE PROTECTED, especially given whose currently on the 40 man roster. It might be different if the A's were closer to being a good team, but the A's have expendable folks on the 40 man roster; Namely, Denorfia, Petit, Marshall, and Casilla. Releasing/Trading these players (presumably for younger/minor level prospects) leaves the A's with 8 open spots on the 40 Man roster.

Much like Grover, I believe Marshall will resign to a AAA contract, and if not, its not that big a loss considering the plethora of young talent the A's have waiting for their shot in the pen. Unlike Grover, I feel Tommy Time has more value to the A's than Petit, thus I keep Tommy and make Petit expendable. Neither are MLB starters, but Tommy provides a RH power bat in a PH role, or as a 1B/DH Sub, and that holds value. Petit is easily replaceable by comparison.

Moving on, with all 6 prospects (Carter, FLDS, Figueroa, Recker, Lansford, and Wimberly) included, the A's would have 38 players on the 40 man roster, leaving two spots open for the rule 5 draft. After the Rule 5 Draft Billy can reorder his rosters without the risk of losing young talent. Billy can option the likes of Carter, Wallace, or Tommy back to AAA, thus opening up a couple spots for FAs Kennedy and Tomko.

Bringing AK back, after the Rule 5, gives the A's the flexibility they need if Wallace is not ready to play 3B. However, I believe Cardenas will get his shot at 3B if Wallace can't get the job done. But, if neither is quite ready, AK provides flexibility at a decent price. Of course, with 13+ million to spend, Billy could forgo the AK option, and sign Mora or Beltre to one year deals if possible, with the caveat that they will not play ahead of Wallace when Wallace is ready.

Assuming the AK option, that leaves the opening day lineup like this.

1. Davis CF - Great holdover till Desme in 2011 or 2010 Sept callups, then some value in trade depending on production

2. Sweeney RF - Billy loves him, he's our RF for some time, hope the power comes.....

3. Zukes C - Most valuable player on the team by far, best 3 hole option until Wallace or Carter take it from him.

4. Cust DH - One more season as the starting DH.

5. Hairston LF - Sink or Swim. If he sinks, there are plenty of others waiting in the wings for their shot.

6. Barton 1B - If he can start strong, he will last, and Cust will be let go when Carter arrives.

7. Pennington SS - Play better than BoCro and this job is yours till Green or Ladendorf are ready.

8. Ellis 2B - One more season (2011 is team option) until Weeks takes over in 2011 or Sept 2010

9. AK 3B - Starts until Wallace is ready, PH and 2B/3B sub once Wallace arrives.

As for the pitching, I believe Tomko is a great option to bring back to fill the veteran role while the A's staff solidifies. Bringing Tomko back, after the Rule 5, leaves the rotation as follows for the start of the season........

1. Anderson

2. Cahill

3. Braden

4. Tomko

5. Gonzalez/Mazarro

Tomko allows the A's the flexibility to pick and choose the better guy at the start of the season between Gio and Vin. He also gives the A's flexibility should Outman take a long time to recover next season.

In the end, the A's protect all valuable young talent, while not signing any FAs that would block the advancement of younger better talent. Many are predicting a better than average Rule 5 draft, and signing Tomko and AK after December will allow the A's to reap the rewards of said draft w/o jeopardizing young talent of their own.

Again, Billy has plenty of financial flexibility under this plan, and it is totally possible he could forgo the AK/Tomko options for more expensive slightly better options. My only grip here is that I dont want said FAs to block a young guy from playing, and AK and Tomko wont do that.

OK Fire Away.......

2010 Offseason Primer

2009-11-03T16:58:43Z

If you’re a lot like me you should probably seek a mental health professional.

Wait… wrong website.

If you’re a lot like me the 2009 baseball season is dead to you, the post-season and the World Series a mere footnote in your existence. The A’s are sitting at home after their third straight losing season and you want to know what Billy Beane and Co. are going to do to make the 2010 season a more enjoyable experience for you. Winning more than half their games would be a good start and I’d like to tell you how the A’s can make that happen.

Only one must learn to walk before they can run.

What I strive to do today is to lay the ground work for where the A’s currently sit as an organization; from there perhaps some brainstorming will be possible. Firstly, get thee familiar with Cot’s Baseball Contracts as they have to date info on the 2009-2010 free agent class including Type A compensation ratings.

Next, I’m going to share with a little project I’ve been working on. I started by ripping off the spreadsheet Jeff uses at Cot’s to display future payroll obligations and modified it to include 2009 service time and to list the remaining minor league options for Oakland’s current 40 man roster. The service time numbers should be accurate to within a day or two of the official MLB count which comes out in the Spring and it is unlikely that any discrepancy would result in a change in a player’s arbitration eligibility or future free agent status.

Open if ye seek knowledge.

Guessing arbitration numbers has never been one of my strong suits but I’ll take a stab at it to help bring the 2010 salary figures up to speed.

Mike Wuertz: $2.3 million

Jack Cust: $4.2 million

Scott Hairston: $2.0 million

Rajai Davis: $950 K

Joey Devine: $500 K

Santiago Casilla is also due arbitration this offseason but I’ll discuss his situation a little later. Kurt Suzuki comes the closest to Super-Two status but he falls about 3 weeks short the likely cut-off. All told my (very) tentative arbitration figures total $9.95 million. Add to that the approximately $7.15 million everyone with less than 2.130 days of big league service time will make in 2010 and the final tally is $36.35 million… but to play it safe I’ll call it $37 million even. The A’s had a $62.3 million payroll to start the 2009 season, I’m going to be ultra-conservative about the A’s attendance projections for 2010 and cut the 2009 figure by 20%. That would give the A’s an Opening Day payroll of $49,848,000 or $50 million to keep with my tendency for rounded numbers. So in theory, the A’s have $13 million in cash to play with this offseason.

We need to take a closer look at the A’s roster before discussing how the A’s should spend that money. Oakland (and every other team in baseball) has to submit their Reserve list (aka 40 man roster) by November 20. Any player currently on the 60-day DL gets added back into the mix. There are currently 41 names on Oakland’s 40 man roster, although 5 of those are free agents-to-be Justin Duchscherer, Brett Tomko, Bobby Crosby, Nomar Garciaparra and Adam Kennedy. All 5 are expected to file for free agency even though there seems to be some interest by both sides to see Duke and Kennedy in Oakland next year. That drops the protected list to 36 and the A’s have 6 players that need to be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft in December.

Chris Carter and Fautino de los Santos are near mortal locks to be added to the 40 man. Pedro Figueroa, Anthony Recker, Jared Lansford and Cory Wimberly are all at risk of being pursued in December if they are left exposed. Figueroa is a lefty with a pulse and a 90+ MPH fastball; the A’s have already indicated that they plan on protecting him this go-around. Recker impressed the organization with his development in 2009 and a catcher with his power potential would be easy to stash on a big league roster for a season as the back up backstop. Lansford has a power arm but some lingering make-up/health issues. Still, I think there’s a good chance the A’s find room to protect him because he’s Carney Lansford’s son and Dave Stewart’s client… both of whom are former teammates of Billy Beane. But it’s not just sentiment that would drive this decision. When Jared was drafted most teams preferred him as a pitcher but the Lansfords made it clear that Jared expected to sign as a position player. This caused Lansford to drop in the draft until the A’s were able to snag him near the end of the 2nd round when, lo and behold, Jared was more than willing to forsake his bat and signed with Oakland as a pitcher. I’m guessing some quid pro quo is in order this November. Wimberly is a guy the A’s like but I’m just not sure how he fits in an organization that already has Jemile Weeks in AA and Adrian Cardenas in AAA.

So how do we fit a minimum of 5 players into a 40 man roster with only 4 available spots AND allow for the A’s to pursue free agents and/or someone in the Rule 5 draft?

When I look at the current 40 man roster I see 4 players that I consider nothing more than dead weight. Santiago Casilla has pitched poorly the last two seasons when he’s been available to pitch, he’s out of options and he’s due a decent pay bump via arbitration. The A’s bullpen already has Bailey, Wuertz and Ziggy entrenched, plus Devine coming back and Jeff Gray, Jon Meloan and Henry Rodriguez waiting in the wings. The A’s have RH bullpen arms aplenty; there is no reason to pay more than league minimum to an ineffective pitcher like Casilla. On a similar note: Jay Marshall… why bother? He barely pitched in 2009 and when he did he didn’t do well. He’s buried behind Breslow, Blevins and now Kilby. The A’s can probably outright Marshall to AAA and re-sign him to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Or he could sign elsewhere and no one would notice.

Tommy Everidge has a nice story in 2009, but what he offers as a player is somewhat limited. He’s a 1B with a bit of RH pop and he has the ability to play some 3B without causing a biblical plague to fall upon us. Chris Carter has the same limitations and a whole lot more upside, so why waste your time on the Albertson’s charcoal filtered vodka when Grey Goose is in stock at a lower price? Chris Denorfia is 29 years old, he’s out of options, he didn’t hit that great in AAA last season and his surgically repaired elbow is hurting him enough to make him pull out of Winter Ball. I’d rather have Recker or Lansford protected then keep Denorfia on the 40 man. Releasing all 4 players would create enough space on the 40 man roster to protect Carter, DLS, Figueroa, Recker and Lansford while still leaving 3 spots open for Rule 5 or Free Agent acquisitions and the organization wouldn’t have lost anyone they haven’t already replaced with better options.

There are other roster positions to consider as well, as 2010 strikes me as the year that the A’s need to figure out what they have in terms of position talent. Scott Hairston has been called out by the A’s management and while he’s currently the front runner to start in LF next year the organization needs to find out what Aaron Cunningham and Travis Buck can do. They each have 1 option year remaining but they have little left to prove in AAA. Does either one have a future in Oakland? Big league playing time is the only way to answer that question and if Hairston does not show the A’s that he is clearly the superior corner outfielder during Spring Training than Oakland might want to send him packing and let Buck and Cunningham fight it out in LF. Once the A’s know what they have in Cunningham, Buck, Hairston, Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney they’ll be in a better position to make informed decisions on the futures of Chris Carter, Sean Doolittle and Jemile Weeks. Will those prospects be needed in the outfield or will they need to find homes in the infield?

I like the 1 year contract the Boston Red Sox gave Brad Penny last year. Sure, he didn’t work out in Beantown but the idea of a 40% cut in his 2008 base salary and incentives to cover if Penny started or relieved has merit. It looks like the A’s are going to shop for a SP during the offseason and I’d be curious to see what kind of traction they could get with a similar offer. The two arms that most intrigue me are Duke and Brett Myers.

Justin Duchscherer: $3.9 million salary in 2009

$2.5 million base

$500 K for 150, 160, 170, 180 IP

$500 K for 50, 60, 70 G or 30 GF

$1.5 million for 200 IP or 40 GF

Brett Myers: $12 million salary in 2009

$6 million base

$500 K for160, 170, 180, 190 IP

$500 K for 55, 65, 75 G or 35 GF

$1 million for 200 IP or 50 GF

I admit the idea of $6 million guaranteed for a bullpen bound Myers is less than appealing, but I’m not really expecting him to pitch in relief. It might end up that the relief portion of the offer is dropped altogether. In the "Go B.I.G. or go home" method of mayhem, signing both pitchers might be the best expenditure of funds available to the A’s. At $8.5 million guaranteed your maybe getting at least as much reliability (combined) as the Braves are about to get by re-signing Hudson at $9 million annual with the possibility of more production and better trade value. Pencil Duke and Myers behind Braden and Anderson and if they bounce back to their previous performance levels the A’s rotation will be much stronger than it was in 2009. That also means Cahill, Mazzaro and Gio will fight it out for the 5th spot with the losers of that contest being optioned to AAA to work on whatever needs a-fixin’.

What about 3B?

Chavez is as tangible as a mirage and the A’s are making noises that they’d like to bring Adam Kennedy back in 2010. Which kind of make sense if the A’s believe that Brett Wallace can eventually handle the hot corner in the Show. No sense signing Adrian Beltre to a long term deal if you’ve got Wallace maybe 3 months away, right? Problem is, every time someone from the A’s Front Office gets asked about Wallace’s defense at 3B they do the most exquisite dance to avoid answering the question.

The A’s have a plethora of arms in the bullpen and it would make sense for them to try and move some arms to patch holes elsewhere. Still, it’s been argued time and again how fungible relief pitching can be and smart teams tend to find quality arms on the cheap year in and year out. This would, of course, diminish the trade value of someone like Mike Wuertz who had the 3rd highest WAR score of any relief pitcher in 2009. And while there are some teams who suck at finding cheap pitching they’re at least smart enough to hide behind the refrain of searching for a low cost alternative. So I suggest raising the stakes and packaging Wuertz with Breslow. The two combined to throw 134 innings and earned 3 WAR for the A’s. They’re under team control for at least the next two seasons and they’ll cost under $3 million in 2010. There aren’t a lot of teams that are looking for bullpen help who’ll try and pull the low cost alternative argument in the face of that kind of cost and potential production. Breslow is easily replaced by Blevins and/or Kilby while the A’s have RH bullpen arms stacked behind Wuertz.

That’s it from me… you are now properly prepared to speculate about this off-season’s potential moves. Have fun!

The (un)Official bit... uh.. Feedback thread for the layout change

2009-11-03T16:06:22Z

I'm already seeing a bunch of posts about it in various other threads, so I figured I could try and help get all the ~~bitching~~ feedback contained to one place.

Maybe this will even help the powers that be.

So far -

- Too much white

- Not enough contrast between the backgrounds of the fANpost section and the "empty" sections on the left and right sides of the blog. By not enough, I mean they're identical in color and the fANpost and fANshot seem to disappear.

- Headlines are too big

- The AN logo is too small and just sorta looks like it's tossed in there somewhere there was space

Who should the a's go after in free agent? (2009-2010)Part 2 for people who dnt understand

2009-11-03T08:22:03Z

Who should the a's go after in free agent? (2009-2010)Part 2 for people who dnt understand

by Dblockhot21 on Nov 3, 2009 12:06 AM PST 0 comments

Ok so i posted this earlier today and was made fun of because of spelling. I did it in ten minutes. So i got 2 bring out my college skills so slow people can understand. Here we go are you on track so far. For the 2009-2010 offseason the oakland a's have some contracts that are up and opens up spots on the 25 man roster. Those names are Bobby Crosby,Nomar Garciapara,Jack Cust,Brett Tomko and Adam Kennedy. You still with me. K good. Im looking forward to my favorite team to be good and exciting. So i think we can pick up an couple of free agents to make us strong. We have open spots at Shortstop 3rd base 1st base and DH and maybe left.I know oakland a low budget team but we have alot of money 2 play with with all these young guys. So i think we should pick up Hank Blalock two play 1st base. he can also play 3rd and DH, and if Carl Crawford decline his option we should go after him. We try too trade for him a few years back. Rajai Davis and Carl Crawford would be a great one two puch at the top of the line up. Davis stole 41 base in 126 games and crawford stole 60. Kurt Suzuki who gets better every at bat to drive them in and Hank Blalock on deck. Scott Harrison batting 5th, Ryan sweeney batting sixth, Mark Ellis batting 7th , Erick Chavez batting eight and Cliff Pennington batting in the nine whoel. What do you guys think? The bull pen will be strong, with the closer Andrew Bailey, Mike Wuertz, Brad Z, Joey Devine,Brad kilby, Craig Breslow and Josh Outman. The starting rotation would be ace Brett Anderson, Justin Duchscherer, Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez. What do you think?

1.Raja Davis (R) 2009 STATS BA HR RBI OBP SLG SB .305 3 48 .360 .423 41

CF(29)

2.Carl Craford (L)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG SB
.305	15	68	.364	.452 60

LF(28)

3.Kurt suzuki (R)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.274	15	88	.313	.421

C (26)

4.Hank Blalock (L)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.234	25	66	.277	.459

1B (28)

5.Scott Harrison (R)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.265	17	64	.307	.456

LF (29)

6.Ryan sweeney (L)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.293	6	53	.348	.407

RF (24)

7.Mark Ellis (R)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.263	10	61	.305	.403

2B (32)

8,.Erick chavez or wallace (L)

3B (31)

9.Cliff Pennington (S)

2009 STATS
BA	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
.279	4	21	.342	.418

SS (25)

Pitching staff

Starters

Brett Anderson(L) 21

Justin Duchscherer (R) 31

Dallas Braden (L) 26

Trevor Cahill (R) 21

Gio Gonzalez (L) 24

Bullpen

Andrew Bailey(R) 24

Joey Devine(R) 25

Michael Wuertz (R) 30

Brad Ziegler (R) 30

Craig Breslow(R) 29

Brad Kilby(L) 26

Josh Outman(L) 25

I've voted 100 times already.........

2009-11-02T23:11:26Z

Fellow ANers,

The annual 2009 TYIB (This Year In Baseball) Awards are now being voted on. Two Athletics are up for awards this season.

MICHAEL WUERTZ

via nimg.sulekha.com

Michael Wuertz is in the running for the TYIB Setup Award, and in my opinion, is the absolute class of the bunch. Quite frankly, he should win this award hands down as he was 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA over 74 appearances, not to mention 102 Ks and an 0.95 WHIP. Dominant, is the only way to describe Wuertz this past season, and you can vote for him (Hopefully 100 times like me!) here......

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/mlb/awards/y2009/tyib/index.jsp

ANDREW BAILEY

via blog.nj.com

Andrew Bailey is in the running for the TYIB Rookie Award, and this should be a much tighter race by the numbers than the Setup category dominated by Wuertz. Nevertheless, I think if the entire community gets together and throws down some good numbers for Bailey, he may indeed pull this off. Anyway, his stats were impressive, so I expect a good showing. He was 6-3 with a 184 ERA, and 91 Ks in 68 games. Of course, he was brilliant in the closer role with 26 saves in 30 opportunities, and you can vote for him here as well.....

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/mlb/awards/y2009/tyib/index.jsp

Lets get these boys some hardware!

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
STO (oak)	A+	26	.220	.304	.330	1	8	2	14	4
KAN (oak)	A	93	.254	.345	.410	8	42	18	56	22

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
SAC (oak)	AAA	23	7-7	5.72	119.2	139	47	81	0	1.55

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	1	0-1	16.20	76.2	5	4	1	0	2.70
STO (oak)	A+	21	5-4	3.52	3.1	64	32	111	1	1.25

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
OAK	MLB	11	1-0	0.53	17.0	10	4	10	0	0.82
SAC (oak)	AAA	45	4-2	2.13	63.1	40	24	77	2	1.01

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Mattl Sulentic, OF	Anthony Recker, C	Shane Peterson, OF	Alex Valdez
	Travis Banwart, SP	Matt Spencer, OF	Gregorio Petit, SS
	Graham Godfrey, SP	Robin Rosario, OF	Tommy Everidge, 1B
Clayton Mortensen, SP	Ronny Morla, SP	Wilfredo Solano	Joel Galarraga, C
Nino Leyja, 2B	Paul Smyth	Conner Crumbliss	Pedro Figueroade, SP
Rashun Dixon, CF	Julio Ramos	Daniel Straily
James Simmons, SP	Ian Krol, SP	Yusuf Carter	Ryan Ortiz, SP
Brett Hunter, SP	Anthony Huttenlocker	Carlos Hernandez, SP	Ben Hornbeck, SP
	Reynaldo Mateo	Tyler Ladendorff	Shawn Haviland, SP
Mickey Storey, SP	Chris Mederos	Jon Meloan	Josh Horton, SS
	Conner Hoehn	Corey Wimberly, UTL	Dan Thomas
	Josh Leyland, C	Justin Souza	Andrew Carignan, RP
Jermaine Mitchell, CF	Jared Lansford, RP	Justin Marks	Jason Christian, 3B