Athletics Nation: FanPosts

Some things I am "coming around" on...

2009-11-20T17:24:34Z

Well, now that JJ Hardy is all-but-certainly not becoming an Oakland Athletic anytime soon and Billy Beane has all-but-dismissed any intention of signing veteran free agents this winter, it seems like I can now officially move past my admittedly half-baked, crackpot off-season plan and re-evaluate my hopes/thoughts concering these Oakland A's as they prepare for the 2010 season.

At this point, it certainly looks like the organization is not motivated at all to contend next season, and I guess that's a realization that's better accepted now than sometime later in the off-season/beginning of Spring after a winter of nervous/excited rosterbating and rumor-mongering. With that in mind, I'm starting to "come around" on a few ideas that I've seen posted here at AN or other sites in regards to our Green and Gold of 2010 and beyond:

3rd Base: Most observers are taking Beane's comments about trying to trade for "young players at positions of need" to imply that he'll be actively looking to trade for a young, major league ready third baseman or shortstop. After hearing this "analysis" I personally began scouring team and prospect pages for 0-3 year MLB 3rd baseman and high-minors 3rd base/shorstop prospects. I came up with the usual suspects: Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, Vitters, Gamel, DeJesus, Brignac, etcetera...

Any of those players are probably possible, but the cost may be prohibitive and I interpreted Beane's comments differently...I implied that Beane will be looking at players at any level of pro-ball that could potentially fill big league vacancies in the next several years, so I think it's just as likely that Beane trades for Brent Morel and calls it a day than he scrambles to acquire a somewhat MLB-ready young player just to fill a vacany for this coming year.

With that being said, I'm starting to think that it's likely that Beane just doesn't add anyone to the immediate 3rd-base mix, especially if he can't pull off a reasonable trade for a player he actually likes and/or he believes that Wallace could step in at some point in 2010 and be a credible 3rd baseman. He might turn to free agency later on in the winter, like he said, but by that time you've got to think that DeRosa, Figgins and Beltre (the actual desirable 3rd base options) will be off the board or engaged in discussions/bidding wars with teams with more desire and/or resources to sign them: i.e., the Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners...I guess there's always the Kennedy option, but even though I advocated for him before, there's little sense going after him if the organization is just not committed to winning at all.

I guess what I'm getting at here is...what if Beane just wants to go all-in-house for his vacancies and really just save every penny he can and evaluate the entirety of his current 40-man roster to be sure of what he has so that he can make the best trades and most informed decisions possible in preperation for the coming years that'll actually matter (2011-)? Without an MLB-ready third baseman, what will the 2010 A's do to man the hot corner, until Wallace is ready- if 3rd base is even an option for him? He's an idea I've been mulling over that could, in theory, provide a short-term - "evaluate and see what the hell happens" type of arrangement:

Platoon Eric Patterson and Tommy Everidge at 3rd. Ya, I can hear a bunch of "hurumphs" and "WTF's" even as I write this. Admittedly, it's an uninspired plan. Neither Everidge or Patterson are proven 3rd baseman or really glove-men of any note...however, they do have ever-so-recent and brief experience at the hot corner in the minors. According to minorleaguesplits.com, both guys proved they were not complete disasters in the field, altough in extremely small sample sizes and only according to the TotalZone system. However, both guys are getting old and really have nothing to prove at AAA and are currently on the 40-man roster. Since Patterson will never supplant Ellis, Weeks or Cardenas at 2nd or anyone in the outfield, and Everidge will never supplant Barton, Wallace, Doolittle, Cater, etcetera at 1st or DH, why shouldn't the A's just see if it's at all possible if they could serve some very specific utility for 2010 or even see if they could boost their profile(s) and trade value(s) for a later trade - especially when this team has nothing else to lose?

I have no idea how many runs these two would give away with their gloves, but I could actually see their platoon arrangement working out alright on offense. Patterson is a career .880 OPS hitter against righties in the minors - EVeridge is a career .954 OPS hitter against lefties in his career. It's a pretty natural platoon arrangement and would be an interesting use of roster spots, as you'd get an added speed weapon into the lineup against the majority of starting pitchers, while reserving a power right-handed bench bat for later in games and against the minority lefty-starter. It would also get the starting pitchers acquainted with "fall down range" type of 3rd baseman, which should smooth the transiton to Brett Wallace, should the chips fall that way!

Aroldis Chapman: I'm starting to really come around on NSJ's idea about going for broke to sign Aroldis Chapman. I know there are all sorts of risk in signing this guy, but the upside is just tremendous and he might only need a bit of minor league seasoning before being able to contribute in the majors. A future rotation involving Anderson, Ynoa and Chapman would be downright devastating and since the A's have tons of money coming off the books in the next year and really harbor no pretensions about competing in 2010, I think spending on Chapman would be an interesting and potentially really rewarding investment.

Cliff Pennington: I'm also, ever so slightly, starting to come around on Cliff Pennington as a potential decent big league player. I've been really low on Pennington for some time now. I've long thought that his lack of power would be exploited in the big leagues - pitchers would just pound the strikezone with him and fielders would just play shallow to take away his bloop and gap hits - while his defense has never impressed me whenever I've seen him play. However, I'm thinking that it's possible that Cliff really did make some permament, positive adjustments to his game after being called up to the big leagues late this season.

It seems like Cliff was more aggressive at the plate in 2009 than he was before, even in the minors. He seemed to swing more often and not just wait for the walk, which to me is a good sign, especially since he seemed to show restraint on pitches outside the strikezone while swinging at more pitches in the strikezone (when compared to his 2008 cup of coffee). I think this added aggressiveness led to Cliff's career high 7 homers (when you combine his 2009 AAA numbers with this MLB numbers). Also of note is that Cliff has seemingly fully recovered from the leg issues that bothered him much of 2007 and 2008 and likely contrbiuted to his low offensive output in those seasons. If Cliff is better able to build a base at the plate with which to drive the ball now that his legs are at full strength, then he might be able to consistently hit for slightly more power in the years to come than he has shown thus far in pro career. Granted, he'll likely never hit over 10 homers or even approach a .418 slugging percentage ever again, but when the guy is projected to slug less than .350 next season, every little bit of punch that could get him closer to .400 will make him an incremantally more valuable player.

As for defense...I guess you could just call Pennington "uneven". He seemed fine for awhile, but he eventually broke down and just seemed a little ragged and sloppy by the end of the season. I guess you can't blame him too much for that, since he played about 30 more games in 2009 than he had ever done before in his career, so he probably just wore down. Besides the sloppyish play, Pennington did somewhat impress me with his instincts and definitely his arm strength. I'm encouraged that his tools and instincts are good for the position...he'll just need to continue to slow the game down a bit, trust his instincts and arm to make up for a lack of range and just make the plays he can get-to consistently and cleanly.

To me, all of that above is a recipe for a league-average shortstop who has a good batting eye, can run a little bit, hit for just enough power to keep the defense honest and can hold down the position adequately for a year or two. For $400K, that isn't the worst situation for the team to be in...

And since no off-season post is complete without some rosterbation:

This is how I see the team being assembled should Beane just go totally in-house for virtually every spot:

1. Braden

2. Duke (still think it makes the most sense for the team & for him to re-sign)

3. Anderson

4. Cahill

5. Gio

6. Bailey

7. Wuertz

8. Ziggy

9. Devine

10. Breslow

11. Blevins

12. Eveland/Kilby

13. Hairston

14. Rajai

15. Sweeney

16. Patterson

17. Pennington

18. Ellis

19. Barton

20. Suzuki

21. Cust

22. Powell

23. Buck

24. Gregorio Petit

25. Everidge

With a lienup like this against righties:

1. Rajai (CF)

2. Patterson (3B)

3. Sweeney (RF)

4. Hairston (LF)

5. Cust (DH)

6. Suzuki (C)

7. Barton (1B)

8. Ellis (2b)

9. Pennington (SS)

Speedy, but virutally devoid of power...seems like the A's from the 2nd half of 2009...

Against lefties:

1. Rajai (CF)

2. Ellis (2B)

3. Hairson (LF)

4. Everidge (3B)

5. Cust (DH)

6. Suzuki (C)

7. Barton (1b)

8. Sweeney (RF)

9. Pennington (SS)

A bit of platoon-packed punch in the 2-4 spots...a tad more power, but not much more.

Basically, what I'm seeing with a team like this is one similar to the A's of the 2nd half of 2009: the team could again lead the league in stolen bases and doubles and could score runs on occasion, but probably won't have a lot of big innings. The pitching would be very solid start to finish and the defense would be mostly solid...above-average at all outfield spots, the right side of the infield and behind the plate - but with something to be desired on the left side of the infield (what else is new).

The team listed above is not a great team, or even a good team, by any means...however, it's a team that will give a ton of opportunity to players currently on the 40-man roster and will definitely feature a solid pitching staff and an athletic/mobile offense that should be fairly exciting to watch. The arrangement above should also assure that the AAA and AA levels of the farm system are stockpiled with players that could be impact talents sooner rather than later, but aren't prematurely rushed to the majors (Wallace, Carter) while establishing a depth of players at those levels who could easily make their way(s) up the big leagues should the need/opportunity arise at some point in 2010 (Mazzaro, Simmons, Godfrey, Kilby, Gray, Demel, Storey, Mortensen, Brown, Doolittle, Cardenas).

While this type of "sit on your hands, play the hand you've got and wait for the young hitters to arrive" isn't an ideal strategy to me, I could see how it makes some sense...

On Trading Catchers....

2009-11-20T00:24:54Z

Fellow ANers,

In the recent ROY award press conference for Andrew Bailey, Billy made it very clear that he views this award as vindication/validation of the A's current youth movement, and that any trades made this offseason will be for more young talent rather than proven veterans. "We're going to stay disciplined," Billy said Tuesday. "We're going to go with young players. We want long-term answers, like Andrew."

Now, who knows if the guy is actually telling the truth, or if Billy just decided to throw up a huge smokescreen for the duration of the offseason. What we do know however, is who's likely to be traded if and when a deal for said youth goes down; Catchers.

To put it mildly, the A's are freaking loaded at the catcher position, and before anyone goes out and gets their shorts in a tussle, Im not advising that Billy trade Zukes. (Errr.....yet!) Lets look at the depth in the organization at the position.

Zukes: Probably at peak value right now. He will most likely hit around .280 with 15-20 HRs, and has proven himself one of the better catchers in the league handling a staff. (and a ridiculously young and growing staff at that) I think trading Zukes at this point would hurt the development of the rotation. However, if Zukes has another great year in 2010, as we all expect, I would not put it past Billy to trade the guy at peak value, especially if those further down the system continue to impress. The pitchers will be more established at that point, and losing Zukes might not have that great an impact once the young guys are no longer in their 1st or 2nd seasons on the mound.

Last 2 years	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	OAK	148	530	54	148	25	1	7	42	44	69	2	3	.279	.346	.370	.716
2009	OAK	147	570	74	156	37	1	15	88	28	59	8	2	.274	.313	.421	.734

Landon Powell: Shown the ability to hit for some good power if given the opportunity to play full time. Injury history, especially with the knees, lowers his stock, but he is great in the backup role. Could also be of value as a switch hitting DH and PH off the bench. (Value at 1B too?)

Last year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	OAK	46	140	19	32	7	0	7	30	14	36	0	0	.229	.297	.429	.725

Josh Donaldson: After a disappointing showing to start the season in the Midwest League in 2008, 'The Donald' was traded to Oakland as part of the Gaudin/Harden deal. He took off in Stockton to finish the season strong, and had a good 2009 at AA Midland. We should expect him to advance to AAA in 2010, with a chance to earn a shot at the bigs at some point in 2011. In a package deal, Donaldson has real value if Billy decides to go after young talent elsewhere.

stats via thebaseballcube.com

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	Ln	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	Auburn	SEC	19	-	NCAA			47	153	20	45	7	0	7	26	0	0	11	34	3		3	3	2	.294	.347	.477	824
2006	Auburn	SEC	20	-	NCAA			56	228	39	63	16	1	10	42	1	1	15	41	5		1	3	9	.276	.331	.487	818
2007	Auburn	SEC	21	-	NCAA			55	215	63	75	19	0	11	54	17	3	38	27	3		1	5	3	.349	.444	.591	1035
	Azl Cubs	Ariz	21	CHC	Rk	c		4	11	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	.182	.308	.364	672
	Boise	Nwst	21	CHC	A-	c		49	162	37	56	11	2	9	35	6	2	37	34	2	1	0	1	3	.346	.470	.605	1075
2008	Peoria	Midw	22	CHC	A	c		63	235	27	51	13	0	6	23	7	1	17	41	2	1	0	0	3	.217	.276	.349	625
	Stockton	Calif	22	OAK	A+	c		47	188	37	62	13	2	9	39	0	2	17	29	2	0	0	0	2	.330	.391	.564	955
2009	Midland	Tex	23	OAK	AA			124	455	67	123	37	1	9	91	7	2	80	92	1	2	3	2	17	.270	.379	.415	794

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s)								287	1051	169	294	76	5	33	188	20	8	153	200	7	4	3	3	25	.280	.374	.456	830

Max Stassi: Oakland's 2009 4th round pick with 1st round talent. Has great upside, and his makeup and instincts have been described as off the charts. Plenty of trade value here should Billy chose to go that route.

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
ATH	AZL	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.500	.000	.500
VAN	NOR	.286	13	49	3	14	4	0	0	8	18	2	11	0	0	.340	.367	.707
Minors		.280	14	50	3	14	4	0	0	8	18	3	12	0	0	.345	.360	.705

Anthony Recker: Oaklands 2005 18th round selection has been on the track you would expect of an 18th rounder, the slow one. Nevertheless, the guy has progressed, and there is some value here as a trade chip.

stats via thebaseballcube.com

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	Ln	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	Alvernia	NCAA	18	-	NCAA			44	160	41	60	9	1	12	57	9	2	18	33	3		0	2	1	.375	.443	.669	1112
2005	Vancouver	Nwst	21	OAK	A-	c		43	150	16	35	8	0	5	18	0	0	16	40	2	0	1	0	5	.233	.315	.387	702
2006	Kane County	Midw	22	OAK	A	c		108	407	52	116	23	3	14	57	6	5	41	115	3	0	0	1	10	.285	.354	.459	813
2007	Stockton	Calif	23	OAK	A+	c		56	207	39	66	17	2	13	47	2	0	27	48	5	0	0	5	5	.319	.402	.609	1011
	Midland	Tex	23	OAK	AA	c		58	201	16	41	12	0	4	20	0	1	17	63	1	0	0	0	8	.204	.269	.323	592
2008	Midland	Tex	24	OAK	AA	c		117	430	57	118	29	4	11	64	1	2	43	140	5	0	2	2	11	.274	.346	.437	783
2009	Midland	Tex	25	OAK	AA			16	57	11	17	4	0	3	9	0	0	8	22	0	0	0	0	1	.298	.385	.526	911
	Sacramento	PCL	25	OAK	AAA			78	272	30	71	11	2	12	45	2	0	28	80	2	0	3	1	4	.261	.333	.449	782

Minor League Totals - 5 Season(s)								476	1724	221	464	104	11	62	260	11	8	180	508	18	0	6	9	44	.269	.343	.450	793

Needless to say, there is a lot in the works at the catcher possition in the A's organization. Im not saying which one, or more, of these guys should be traded, but it seems pretty clear that if a trade is made Billy will have to look this list over and make some tough choices.

Who do you all think should be used as trade bait? Would you all be willing to let go of Stassi (or even Zukes) if it meant you could get a guy like Yunel Escobar from the Braves? I could totally accept a package deal of Green or Ladendorf, and Stassi if it meant we could get back talent like Yunel. What do you all think? What about other trades? I only mention Yunel cause there were rumors at the deadline the A's might have gotten him. Any good ideas? Anybody wanna take a stab at who Billy is talking about when he says, "long term [young] answers"?

***UPDATE***

It has been made clear that Stassi and Green cannot be traded until some time next year. So, would you all be willing to give up Donaldson and/or Recker and/or Zukes etc etc if it meant quality returns in the same class as Escobar?

Community Prospect List #17

2009-11-19T06:21:54Z

For Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.

Prospects up for Vote:

Matt Spencer, OF, Age 23

Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS

2007 Arizona State Pac10 21 - NCAA 55 185 45 70 16 2 8 48 8 2 19 37 5 1 1 2 .378 .448 .616 1064

Williamsport NYPL 21 PHI A- of 51 179 21 47 10 0 9 26 3 3 11 46 5 0 1 2 0 .263 .320 .469 789

2008 Clearwater FSL 22 PHI A+ of 85 307 40 77 12 3 6 42 5 1 30 66 2 0 0 4 8 .251 .318 .368 686

Stockton Calif 22 OAK A+ 1b-of 41 169 30 56 12 1 8 27 7 1 6 39 6 0 0 1 1 .331 .374 .556 930

2009 Stockton Calif 23 OAK A+ 30 117 20 32 5 0 10 29 3 1 12 15 0 1 0 1 2 .274 .338 .573 911

Midland Tex 23 OAK AA 93 371 59 109 29 3 9 62 2 3 26 75 7 1 0 5 3 .294 .347 .461 808

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 300 1143 170 321 68 7 42 186 20 9 85 241 20 2 1 13 14 .281 .338 .463 801

Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23

Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP

2006 Azl Athletics Ariz 20 OAK Rk 2 6 6.07 13 8 0 0 1 0 43.0 59 39 29 4 11 27 2 12.3 0.8 2.3 5.7 1.63

2007 Vancouver Nwst 21 OAK A- 2 2 4.30 17 7 0 0 3 1 44.0 41 26 21 2 31 35 4 8.4 0.4 6.3 7.2 1.64

2008 Vancouver Nwst 22 OAK A- 2 5 3.93 15 15 0 0 0 0 68.2 62 37 30 3 32 77 3 8.1 0.4 4.2 10.1 1.37

2009 Kane County Midw 23 OAK A 10 2 3.23 16 16 0 0 0 0 86.1 89 37 31 6 31 78 6 9.3 0.6 3.2 8.1 1.39

Stockton Calif 23 OAK A+ 3 4 3.56 11 11 0 0 0 0 65.2 62 27 26 3 35 67 4 8.5 0.4 4.8 9.2 1.48

Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s) 19 19 4.01 72 57 0 0 4 1 307.2 313 166 137 18 140 284 19 9.2 0.5 4.1 8.3 1.47

James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - Video

Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP

2005 UC Riverside BigWest 18 - NCAA 3 1 2.95 6 6 1 0 0 36.2 37 17 12 2 4 24 2 9.1 0.5 1.0 5.9 1.12

2006 UC Riverside BigWest 19 - NCAA 9 5 2.96 16 16 0 0 0 109.1 108 47 36 11 19 94 3 8.9 0.9 1.6 7.7 1.16

2007 UC Riverside BigWest 20 - NCAA 11 3 2.40 17 17 5 1 0 123.2 103 48 33 9 15 116 3 7.5 0.7 1.1 8.4 0.95

Midland Tex 20 OAK AA 0 0 3.94 13 2 0 0 2 0 29.2 36 16 13 2 8 23 0 10.9 0.6 2.4 7.0 1.48

2008 Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 9 6 3.51 25 25 0 0 0 0 136.0 150 58 53 11 32 120 3 9.9 0.7 2.1 7.9 1.34

2009 Sacramento PCL 22 OAK AAA 7 7 5.72 23 22 1 0 0 0 119.2 139 81 76 8 47 81 7 10.5 0.6 3.5 6.1 1.55

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 16 13 4.48 61 49 1 0 2 0 285.1 325 155 142 21 87 224 10 10.3 0.7 2.7 7.1 1.45

Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21

Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP

2006 Kansas State Big12 18 - NCAA 3 1 1.24 18 1 0 0 1 29.0 22 8 4 3 16 35 2 6.8 0.9 5.0 10.9 1.31

2007 Kansas State Big12 19 - NCAA 2 2 7.22 16 10 0 0 1 52.1 66 44 42 4 28 46 10 11.4 0.7 4.8 7.9 1.80

2008 Kansas State Big12 20 - NCAA 1 1 3.22 13 2 0 0 0 22.1 25 12 8 3 9 17 7 10.1 1.2 3.6 6.9 1.52

Vancouver Nwst 20 OAK A- 2 2 4.88 18 0 0 0 5 1 31.1 30 18 17 2 18 40 3 8.6 0.6 5.2 11.5 1.53

Kane County Midw 20 OAK A 1 0 2.25 3 0 0 0 2 0 4.0 3 1 1 0 1 5 1 6.8 0.0 2.3 11.3 1.00

2009 Kane County Midw 21 OAK A 4 0 1.24 7 4 0 0 1 0 36.1 19 6 5 2 10 47 4 4.7 0.5 2.5 11.6 0.80

Stockton Calif 21 OAK A+ 5 4 3.52 21 11 0 0 3 1 76.2 64 36 30 3 32 111 9 7.5 0.4 3.8 13.0 1.25

Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 0 1 16.20 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.1 5 7 6 0 4 1 2 13.5 0.0 10.8 2.7 2.70

Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 12 7 3.51 50 16 0 0 11 2 151.2 121 68 59 7 65 204 19 7.2 0.4 3.9 12.1 1.23

Shane Peterson, OF, Age 21

Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS

2006 Long Beach State BigWest 18 - NCAA 39 125 12 41 3 2 2 19 2 1 11 19 8 3 2 2 .328 .411 .432 843

2007 Long Beach State BigWest 19 - NCAA 53 199 40 65 11 3 4 40 11 3 27 27 7 2 4 1 .327 .418 .472 890

2008 Long Beach State BigWest 20 - NCAA 59 213 52 83 16 2 7 50 10 3 44 47 7 3 1 1 .390 .506 .582 1088

Batavia NYPL 20 STL A- of-1b 65 230 35 67 20 2 1 39 3 2 39 65 4 3 0 2 1 .291 .400 .409 809

2009 Palm Beach FSL 21 STL A+ 76 285 32 85 11 4 6 39 10 1 21 52 11 4 0 2 5 .298 .367 .428 795

Springfield Tex 21 STL AA 18 74 10 21 4 1 1 7 2 0 5 10 1 0 0 0 0 .284 .338 .405 743

Midland Tex 21 OAK AA 57 228 26 63 14 1 4 24 6 0 18 42 3 0 1 2 5 .276 .335 .399 734

Minor League Totals - 2 Season(s) 216 817 103 236 49 8 12 109 21 3 83 169 19 7 1 6 11 .289 .365 .412 777

Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video

Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP

2005 Texas Christian ConfUSA 19 - NCAA 5 5 4.64 20 12 1 0 1 95.0 97 62 49 5 44 100 5 9.2 0.5 4.2 9.5 1.48

2006 Texas Christian MWC 20 - NCAA 6 6 4.08 23 13 0 0 6 92.2 93 52 42 8 37 100 8 9.0 0.8 3.6 9.7 1.40

2007 Texas Christian MWC 21 - NCAA 7 1 2.17 32 0 0 0 13 49.2 36 17 12 1 17 71 7 6.5 0.2 3.1 12.9 1.07

Kane County Midw 21 OAK A 0 1 0.96 9 0 0 0 8 4 9.1 3 2 1 0 4 10 2 2.9 0.0 3.9 9.6 0.75

Stockton Calif 21 OAK A+ 0 0 7.07 11 0 0 0 2 0 14.0 16 16 11 2 15 13 4 10.3 1.3 9.6 8.4 2.21

2008 Stockton Calif 22 OAK A+ 5 2 3.36 54 0 0 0 35 18 67.0 61 31 25 5 32 90 10 8.2 0.7 4.3 12.1 1.39

2009 Midland Tex 23 OAK AA 0 2 0.61 27 0 0 0 23 11 29.1 23 5 2 1 9 26 1 7.1 0.3 2.8 8.0 1.09

Sacramento PCL 23 OAK AAA 2 3 3.62 28 0 0 0 10 3 32.1 27 14 13 1 21 33 5 7.5 0.3 5.8 9.2 1.48

Minor League Totals - 3 Season(s) 7 8 3.08 129 0 0 0 78 36 152.0 130 68 52 9 81 172 22 7.7 0.5 4.8 10.2 1.39

Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video

Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP

2003 San Jose State WAC 20 - NCAA 1 0 3.21 10 0 0 0 0 14.0 14 5 5 1 5 10 2 9.0 0.6 3.2 6.4 1.36

2004 San Jose State WAC 21 - NCAA 4 1 1.71 25 0 0 0 6 58.0 42 13 11 1 29 46 5 6.5 0.2 4.5 7.1 1.22

2005 San Jose State WAC 22 - NCAA 7 2 1.85 16 8 2 1 1 77.2 60 22 16 5 31 54 1 7.0 0.6 3.6 6.3 1.17

Vancouver Nwst 22 OAK A- 2 0 1.95 23 0 0 0 14 27.2 20 7 6 2 11 38 1 6.5 0.7 3.6 12.4 1.12

2006 Kane County Midw 23 OAK A 5 1 1.63 49 0 0 0 26 9 60.2 38 13 11 0 23 73 2 5.6 0.0 3.4 10.8 1.01

2007 Stockton Calif 24 OAK A+ 0 0 3.24 7 0 0 0 5 3 8.1 6 5 3 0 6 16 2 6.5 0.0 6.5 17.3 1.44

Midland Tex 24 OAK AA 3 3 2.88 48 0 0 0 12 0 65.2 63 24 21 6 22 69 1 8.6 0.8 3.0 9.5 1.29

2008 Sacramento PCL 25 OAK AAA 7 2 3.47 51 0 0 0 14 2 70.0 51 33 27 9 26 66 3 6.6 1.2 3.3 8.5 1.10

2009 Sacramento PCL 26 OAK AAA 4 2 2.13 45 0 0 0 6 2 63.1 40 15 15 5 24 77 5 5.7 0.7 3.4 10.9 1.01

Oakland AL 26 OAK MLB 1 0 0.53 11 1 0 0 1 0 17.0 10 2 1 1 4 20 0 5.3 0.5 2.1 10.6 0.82

Major League Totals - 1 Season(s) 1 0 0.53 11 1 0 0 1 0 17.0 10 2 1 1 4 20 0 5.3 0.5 2.1 10.6 0.82

Minor League Totals - 5 Season(s) 21 8 2.53 223 0 0 0 30 295.2 218 97 83 22 112 339 14 6.6 0.7 3.4 10.3 1.12

Poll

Who is the A's #17 Prospect?

DLD 11/17/09 - Nintendo 64 and a Nerd's top 10 Epic Movie Fights

2009-11-17T09:44:53Z

Inspired by Sunday's release of the New Super Mario Bros. Wii, I will continue in my "series" of Nintendo console DLD's. If you didn't see in the last DLD, here was the "premiere" of the game in NYC. BUT I will save the Wii for another Daily Dump, keep your Wii discussions to "should I buy one" only. We can go in depth IF you want later.

Next up is the Nintendo 64. Ah 1996, such a good year :-)

I don't think I purchased my N64 until 1997 but I could be wrong. My older cousin owned it first and he would invite my friends and I over to play it and we would stay up all night playing. Obviously I wanted my own but I did want to sell my SNES for it. The N64 would be the first Nintendo system I actually paid for all by myself. My Dad owns a small construction company (he built a house for Rita Moreno in the Oakland hills a few years ago. That hill was steep and digging holes on it for planting trees and carrying the dirt up the hill in buckets SUCKED! I had a giant purple bruise on my bicep after that day but anyways) and I worked a couple weeks for him in the summer demoing the back of a house in San Francisco with my cousin. I used my nepotistic salary to purchase the new 3D Nintendo system, an extra controller, and Star Fox 64. Even though Super Mario 64 was a launch game and revolutionary, I never bought it. The N64 was the first Nintendo console to feature a analog control stick as the main way to control your character. In fact, I can barely remember using the directional pad (D-Pad) for anything except in fighting games? It also was the first Nintendo console to have 4 controller ports, come if different colors, feature controller extensions like the rumble pack and controller pack memory card, and it was the last home console to feature game cartridges instead of discs (to reduce piracy and give it faster load times). It sold well in North America but it wasn't as popular in Japan or other regions. It has been speculated the reason was the lack of role-playing games. The ability to have up to 4 people playing a the same time in some games was probably its biggest selling point IMO. I think it was the first home console ever to come standard with more than 2 controller ports. My greatest memories of playing the N64 were 4 player matches in Goldeneye and Mario Kart 64. Here is my list of the best Nintendo 64 games in alphabetical order;

**UPDATE** As JediLeroy pointed out, this isn't a best of N64 list but rather "My personal favorite N64 games"

All Star Baseball 2001 (the last good ASB game)
Army Men: Sarge's Heroes
BattleTanx:Global Assault
F-Zero X (not as good as the original but Death Match was a cool addition)
Forsaken (this only makes my list b/c of the multiplayer)
Goldeneye (one of my all time favorite games)
Jet Force Gemini (I always think of Huey Lewis and the News with this game because I listened to them while playing it)
Killer Instinct Gold (Ultimate Combo! I liked this way better than Mortal Kombat)
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (One of my all time favs and one of the best games ever made {after I finish the console DLDs I will do a best video game ever Link Dump})
Mario Kart 64 (only on the list because my cousin liked it and we had a lot of group races and battles.)
NBA Hangtime (basically an improved version of NBA Jam. Alley-oops and double dunks baby!)
NFL Blitz (now this is NOT the No Fun League)
Perfect Dark (basically goldeneye in a different universe. It had more multiplayer features like computers player with multiple personalities, and customizable weapon modes but somehow Goldeneye still holds an edge over it)
Rainbow Six (a port of a PC game but still cool. more "realistic" FPS)
Star Fox 64 (The rumblepack came bundled with the game)
Super Mario 64
Super Smash Bros. (classic nintendo characters fighting each other? SWEET!)
Turok: Dinosuar Hunter (There were some awesome weapons in this game but parts where you had to jump were difficult)
Worms Armageddon (technically I never played this on the N64 but the PC version was great)

In homage to the film Monty Python and the Holy Grail, one of the game weapons is a Holy Hand Grenade, with a sound-effect reminiscent of the Hallelujah chorus from Handel's Messiah.

My personal top 5 Nintendo 64 games.

And finally, I promised a top ten list of epic movie fights. These are the rules set forth by the editor.

All of the movies on this list have fight scenes that last over five minutes, consist of thousands of dollars of collateral damage, break bones, bust skulls and make our eyes bleed from sheer awesomeness.

I have never seen or heard of John Carpenter's They Live before. I might have to add that to my blockbuster movie queue.

Poll

Should I rent "They Live"?

A's ink 10 year deal with KTRB 860 am

2009-11-19T03:33:46Z

Link

The news Nico and his tin foil antenna have been waiting for: the A's have inked a deal with Xtra Sports 860 am to broadcast up to 20 spring training games, plus the entire 162 game season and any post season games, through 2019.

Let's hope Xtra Sports will sign Marty Lurie to 10 year deal also.

No word yet if Miller Genuine Draft has signed on to run it's jingle for the next 10 years also.

Huston Street and the Blown Save

2009-11-19T02:52:10Z

Fellow ANers,

It would appear, as a relatively new member of this community, that I have unknowingly stepped into the middle of an ongoing debate with regard to the legitimacy of Blown Saves. Personally, I am very interested in any and all reasonable arguments on either side of the spectrum, but currently I stand with the belief that blown saves are significant. (By the way, some sites do track the stat, including YahooSports.)

For my part, this whole conversation got started with this years ROY award going to Andrew Bailey. Almost immediately, parallels were drawn between Bailey and former Oakland Athletic Huston Street. I happen to feel that comparison is unfair to both players. Its unfair to Street, because he has proven longevity at the closer position in the bigs, and thats no small feat. It's unfair to Bailey, because he technically had a better rookie year than Street, and doesn't have a penchant for Blown Saves (and crucial ones at that). And there in lies the controversy, at least for my part, that got this conversation going.

Some in this community believe "that blown saves are irrelevant", some in this community believe Huston Street was a good closer as an Athletic, and some in this community believe both of those things. I, with no disrespect to anyone here, do not, on either account. I don't even think he was average, and for me his penchant for Blown Saves bears that out.

Lets look at the facts, shall we? During his time in Oakland, Huston Street had 27 blown saves in 121 regular season opportunities. That means Huston only saved 77.69% of his opportunities; It also means he blew almost one fourth of his chances, depending on how you look at it. IMO that is outrageous, and well, well below even average for the league. Hence, my feelings on Street.

***UPDATE*** [Because Micdog wanted more stats] ***UPDATE***

Here are some other players to compare. Players listed are those whose careers began after SVO becam a tracked stat. Older players like Mariano don't have career SVO totals, but these are closers your all familiar with from across the spectrum.

Eric Gane: 187 SV, 204 SVO, 91.66%

Joe Nathan: 247 SV, 276 SVO, 89.49%

Francisco Rodriguez 243 SV, 283 SVO, 85.86%

Brad Lidge: 195 SV, 233 SVO, 83.69%

Francisco Cordero 250 SV, 306 SVO, 81.69%

Huston Street 129 SV 158 SVO, 81.65% [In Oakland: 94 SV, 121 SVO, 77.69%]

***END OF UPDATE***

By the way, while Street did have one of his best years in the bigs with the Rockies last season, saving 35 and only blowing 2 regular season games, it seems he still cant hold/save the biggest games......

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/10/13/street.rockies.ap/

Sounds all to familiar doesn't it. At least it wasn't another 'no doubter' into the stratosphere, right? (Ahem 2006!) That ball is still in the air somewhere over Eastern Europe I think.

As for the legitimacy of Blown Saves, I really am interested in arguments to the contrary. IMO the legitimacy of a certain statistic should not be called into question simply because there are a few instances in which the accumulation of said stat may seem harsh or unfair. Sure there are ridiculous ways that an individual pitcher can pick up a blown save, but IMO the vast majority of blown saves are just regular, run-of-the-mill, Brad Lidge type blown saves. A closer comes in in the 9th inning with a three run or less lead, and just blows it. Maybe he catches a bad bounce or two (these things happen), or maybe he gets shelled, either way the save is blown and its significant cause there is rarely recovery possible; The game is usually over, and in the end thats what its all about (yes bbgirl), Ws and Ls, with blown saves most often leading directly to the latter.

Sure, Blown Saves may not be the "be-all-to-end-all" statistic for closers, but it certainly seems significant to me. I really am interested in all opinions here, so open my eyes to your truth on this matter, and maybe we can all kick the ball forward in this debate.

Greener Grass, Episode 6: It's All About Culture

2009-11-18T02:15:32Z

Does a ballpark have a culture? If so is it an extension of the fanbase or is it somehow manufactured by the stadium atmosphere? Maybe a mix of both?

We have been to a few big league parks. We plan on adding a few to our list next season (see June trip to the Midwest inter-league style).

Before last season, when the frog in my pocket and I journeyed to Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, I was not really sure that a ballpark had a culture.

But we now know that there are definitely some characteristics we would like to see in a new Bay Area ballpark. And we think those characteristics would go a long way towards creating the best culture in the big leagues.

Below the fold, we shall bloviate on how a new stadium should look and feel (special thanks to cityplANner and vertig0 for their assistance, even if they didn't know they were giving it).

Some parks we have visited and some of those we plan to attend, well they have a real unique feel. Some things we like are the Milwaukee Brewer's fans and their proclivity for tailgating. Fans in Wrigleyville like to have a block party in support of their Cubs. Much like the Yawkey Way experience, where a city street is shut down and becomes an extension of the stadium, in Boston is like a Red Sox themed carnival with street vendors and booze a flowin'. In the capital of Yankeedom there is this bar that looks like doubles as a mechanics shop in the off hours.

These environments represent two distinct pregame atmospheres that many would argue are mutually exclusive. You can either have the large parking lot with barbecues (as exists here in Oaktown) or you have no "sea of asphalt" and bars where yuppies meet up and pretend to like baseball.

Additionally, in these places you have stadiums with quirky dimensions and interesting architecture. In some cases the quirky dimensions are the result of necessity due to the lot they were built on. In others, not so much. In all cases, cool architecture is welcome.

In our opinion, the pregame activities are not mutually exclusive. The architecture is important for setting the tone. And, the quirky dimensions should only be present when necessitated by the lot. These three aspects are central to our plan for creating the coolest culture in all of baseball.

First, how would we manage to capture tailgating and yuppie bardom in a single bound? For illustration purposes I have included a photo of the proposed development at Diridon:

This image is from Andrew Watkins, you can read more about him and his plan for Diridon here.

Admittedly, fellow A's fans, this will take some imagination on your part. The whole stadium will actually need to be moved to the right because there is a power substation under the left hand part of it and the current plan is to keep it there. Because of this, the weird looking pyramid I have crossed out will be non existent. Which is good cause it kind of looks like a futuristic pyramid inhabited by an evil race of faux Egyptians right out of a Tom Swift series 4 novel for young adults. Additionally, the stadium pictured is just a place holder. The repositioning would potentially create the need for some quirky dimensions.

The areas to focus on are the green oval behind left field and the red rectangle in the bottom. First, for the yuppies the green oval represents pregame snobville at it's best! A walkway between the back of the stands in left. If it is done right, the top floor of the building and the roof could peer over the bleachers down onto the emerald hued heaven we refer to as a baseball field. Incidentally, pregame snobville serves another purpose in my rambling fantasy of a new stadium... the Yankees are in town, 32,000 seats are sold rather easily. $4 dollar cover charge gets you into the roof top bar (if you are over 21) or the Skyline club on the top floor of the building (for all ages).

Now for the "blue collar barbecue crew." In the original plan that red rectangle would have been team offices. In the new and improved version that has taken shape in the Diridon Good Neighbor Meetings that will be a park. Why not "tailgate" on grass rather than a sea of asphalt? Sure you have to be able to park somewhere nearby to carry all the tailgating stuff and what not. It would be more like tailpicnicing, but does it not have a similar potential?

The green "future park" is the same as my red rectangle.

I understand these ideas are fairly specific to the Diridon plan. So not to hurt any of my Oakland Only friends feelings, let's pretend the City of Oakland's plan involved a site mentioned on Marine Layer's blog a while back. What about the Oakland Fire Department training site. The City owns a portion of it and it is zoned in a way that could be used to build a ballpark. An illustration:

From Oakland's City Zoning Map

So where would the tailpicnicing happen here? How about the yuppie zone/overflow seating? In the picture below the area outlined in red would be the park with barbecue pits and the area outlined in green would be for the ballpark/ancillary buildings. For this to happen it would require some existing business to move, which may or may not be a big deal. I imagine the roof top bar and top floor club over looking the outfield would be near 880 and the ballpark would have home plate in the general locale of the intersection of Oak and Embarcadero. Again this is just my concept to show a spot where it is feasible to build something like this in Oakland. I am not sure about infrastructure improvements/parking, but as you can see from that big ugly white box, Lake Merritt BART isn't that far of a walk down Oak.

OFD Training site and my highly technical rendering.

Slight detour time for me and the frog in my pocket. Who knows which franchise was the first to have a steel and concrete stadium? The kind everyone is trying to replicate these days with the funky looking short distances and high fences? Well, none other than our A's. I think the new stadium, any new A's stadium, should pay some homage to the historical precedent set by Shibe Park in Philadelphia. Look at it's splendor:

I love that tower looking thing and those arches.

So what is the appropriate way to pay homage to this place? Since we have other ideas for the outside of the stadium to discuss here in a minute, we think it has to be something inside the stadium. So what did the inside look like? Like this:

Picture courtesy of ballparksofbaseball.com

So what stands out to you? Besides the Alpo ad, I mean. And besides the cool upper deck and roof in Left Field which we already know can't be there if there is the roof top bar and such. How bout the whole Right Field wall? Scoreboard and all? It was 34 feet tall when the stadium eventually closed, while the scoreboard was 50 feet high, not counting the Ballantine Beer sign (wouldn't it be cool if that said Pyramid Ale instead?).

So what about the outside architecture? We have two ideas for that. First, let's assume the ballpark is being constructed at the OFD Training Site... Basically in Oakland and near the water. I say inspiration should then come from this:

East Brother Island Lighthouse

and this:

Santa Barbara Maritime Museum

There is also a cool Maritime museum in Vallejo that could serve as inspiration. The general idea here is to pay homage to the Port of Oakland and the nautical environ of the stadium. Imagine that tower behind home plate of Shibe Park replaced with a light house. And when of the Green and Gold hits a bomb imagine a cannon firing as if it was on the Admiral's ship in a fleet hunting pirates in the old world. It sure as hell would beat that damn fog horn in San Francisco.

But what if the A's end up near Diridon?

I imagine something like this:

Mission Santa Barbara

Or from another angle:

Maybe not with the crosses but one heck of a home plate gate, eh?

The idea here would be to pay homage to California's Missions from an architectural perspective. Think arches, adobe bricks and Spanish tile roofs.

So there it is in a large nutshell. A yuppie zone with a roof top bar peering over the outfield that doubles as overflow seating. A large park for "tailpicnicing." A right field fence and scoreboard that pay homage to the A's history as stadium pioneers. Architecture to pay homage to our port or the missions. All that is missing is strategically placed statues of Rickey Henderson, Dave Stewart, Catfish Hunter, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Walter Haas, Reggie Jackson, Jimmie Foxx, and Connie Mack.

That, my friends, would be the building blocks of the coolest fan culture in all of baseball. At least I think so. And so does the frog in my pocket. What ideas do you got?

UPDATE: Denorfia Outrighted; Becomes 6-Year Minor League Free Agent

2009-11-10T19:41:13Z

*There has been some discussion as to the status of Chris Denorfia after he was outrighted by the A's last week. According to this LINK at the Game of Baseball.com, Denorfia's name appears on the list of A's players eligible for 6-year minor league free agency.*

Oakland (17)

Pitchers: RHP Daniel Barone, RHP Andrew Brown, RHP Shawn Chacon, RHP Dewon Day, RHP Leonardo Espinal, RHP Angel Garcia, RHP Chris Gissell, LHP Daniel Haigwood, LHP Justin Hampson, RHP Scott Mitchinson, RHP Scott Patterson, RHP Jerome Williams

Catchers: Raul Padron

Infielders: Carlos Arrieche, Frank Martinez

Outfielders: Chris Denorfia, Archie Gilbert

In a move that we all expected, the A's outrighted Chris Denorfia to Sacramento and freed up another spot on the 40-man roster.

Official Release:

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Oakland A's outrighted outfielder Chris Denorfia to Triple-A Sacramento, the club announced today.
Denorfia spent most of the 2009 season at Sacramento where he batted .271 with nine home runs and 49 RBI in 107 games. He also went 0 for 2 with a run scored and RBI during a four-game stint with Oakland from June 9 to 17. Denorfia is a .279 career hitter with three home runs and 19 RBI in 100 games with the A's (2008-09) and Cincinnati (2005-06).

via media.scout.com

Free agents and ballpark

2009-11-17T13:56:31Z

How about a little discussion on the direction of this team on and off the field since it appears to be the A's most monumental offseason in more than 40 years. We are on the cusp of a new city, new ballpark perhaps as well as key decisions on free agents.

What are your opinions on San Jose being the A's new home? Is it far enough away from San Francisco and the Giants' giant reach and marketing? Is a 32,000 seat ballpark big enough? (No). What about a bigger ballpark? Where else could the A's move to (Vancouver, New Jersey, Norfolk)? Not since the A's moved to Oakland has there been a bigger offseason set of questions. Actually, this move is even more crucial given the state of the lousy economy and Caifornia's particular economic challenges including its crowded baseball, sports and recreational offerings. Personally, I think the A's are better off out of California. The proposed 32,000 seat stadium is too small. The whole decision to move to San Jose and into relatively small ballpark seems self-defeating and myopic. This franchise deserves a grand slam approach, not some limited 'let's accomodate the Bay Area.'" The Bay Area has never fully supported this grand franchise and team, save for a few years in the 1980's under Wally Haas. This franchise has done the best job of developing players over the years. How many of you ANer's keep saying look at the All-Star team we would have if we kept our players. That has been the complaint for the last 40 years. It is time to end this nonsense and move on literally.

If you are going to compete, then compete. There is no model in baseball except the perpetual scouting, drafting and retaining. We do well in the first two phases and then cannibalize ourselves in trying to retain and reinvent.

Stop the madness. Move out of California altogether. As far on the field, Miguel Tejeda should be brought back along with Jermaine Dye and a few others, so that the team can at least compete.

Any thoughts?

Bailey wins ROY!!!!

2009-11-16T19:16:37Z

Note by baseballgirl: I LOVE this pick. I thought the voting was really reminiscent of when Street won, but I was worried about Andrus. Bailey took the award with 13 first place votes, 6 second place votes, and 5 third place votes. He won with 88, Andrus finished second with 65, and Porcello took third with 64. Didn't think it would be such a big gap.

I LOVE IT!!!!!! CONGRATULATIONS ANDREW BAILEY! (Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy, and it's nice to see the A's get a little recognition.)

From the A's press release:

A’s reliever Andrew Bailey was named the American League Rookie of the Year on Monday, becoming the third A’s player in the last six years to earn the honor. Bailey, 25, posted an Oakland rookie-record 26 saves in 30 chances and a 6-3 record with a 1.84 ERA in his first full season as a closer. Named to the All-Star team in July, Bailey also delivered a 0.88 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) and 91 strikeouts against 24 walks in 83 1/3 innings over 68 appearances. Bailey, who was transformed from a starter to a closer in the summer of 2008, follows in the footsteps of A’s winners Huston Street (2005) and Bobby Crosby (2004) among the seven Oakland A’s to have won the award.

The A's and ESPN.com are reporting that Andrew Bailey has won the AL Rookie of the Year award. Woot! At least someone has been watching our boy(s). Way to go, Drew!!

Heard a rumor to this effect and tried to find it on MLB.tv but they weren't posting results yet. Just saw it on Facebook and Twitter, though, so it must be true! More words needed: OK, let's say it again: Way to go, Bailey! Awesome way to finish your season. Can't wait to see more next season.

DLS and Mat Gamel

2009-11-16T05:24:02Z

Chicago Tribune mentions Beane's thoughts on seeing DLS pitching, mid-90's.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-16-rogers-whispers-nov16,0,4524518.column

In that same article, there's talk about the Brewers possibly making Gamel available; defense not that great, right? I bet he could be had for some pitching? I'm also guessing he might come cheaper than previously, but might be worth the risk for giving up maybe Eveland, Gray, and?

ARZ = Athletic's Rumor Zone

2009-11-15T23:18:04Z

Here I go doing a fan post where you can post all the rumors you hear daily about who the A's will trade or have been in trade talks with.

First up..3b..So far I heard runmors about Alex Gordon, Chone Figgins, Miguel tejada, Josh Fields, and Jamey Carrol. Adam Kennedy is likely favorite here with rumors since the A's have talked to his agent. I like the fact of Alex Gordon on the buy low high upside which would cost the A's 1 of their catching prospects and more. Jamey Carrol has been consistent in numbers and is steady at third could be a good stop gap until Wallace is ready. Figgins will be out of the A's price range and Tejada is still to early to figure out.

SP..The A's still want the Duke back. Looks like Tomko will walk. One player that hit the market the other day is Braden Looper to me would be perfect fit for the A's. Not a high cost FA and is a good innings eater pitcher who may need a park like Oakland to give him good numbers again but I have heard no word the A's are after him. Mark Mulder is being pursued heavy by the Brewers so his return is less likely.

SS...Nothing looks like Pennington's job

OF.. Nothing been said but I would not rule out Beane bringing in a power hitter here.

DH..Thome rumor is here if the A's let go of Cust. I wouldn't mind Matsui to get fans in the seats but he is rumored to want to comeback to the Yanks badly.

Anybody else heard anything?? Post the rumors you hear here and we can create to talk in this slow time for baseball.

Community Prospect List #16

2009-11-14T22:24:52Z

Finals Over. Back from Australia. Back in the US. 16 Hour Plane Rides Suck. My back hurts. I want to sleep.

But First, PROSPECTS!

For Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.

Prospects up for Vote:

Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22

2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B

STO (oak) A+ 26 .220 .304 .330 1 8 2 14 4

KAN (oak) A 93 .254 .345 .410 8 42 18 56 22

Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39

STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48

James Simmons, SP, Age 22 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

SAC (oak) AAA 23 7-7 5.72 119.2 139 47 81 0 1.55

Ben Hornbeck, SP, Age 21

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

MID (oak) AA 1 0-1 16.20 3.1 5 4 1 0 2.70

STO (oak) A+ 21 5-4 3.52 76.2 64 32 111 1 1.25

Shane Peterson, OF, Age 21

2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B

SFD (stl) AA 18 .284 .338 .405 1 7 2 10 4

MID (oak) AA 57 .276 .335 .399 4 24 6 26 14

Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09

SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48

Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

OAK MLB 11 1-0 0.53 17.0 10 4 10 0 0.82

SAC (oak) AAA 45 4-2 2.13 63.1 40 24 77 2 1.01

Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - Video

2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP

SAC (oak) AAA 37 2-1 5.77 43.2 38 38 71 4 1.74

STO (oak) A+ 3 0-0 0.00 5 3 1 11 0 0.80

The List Thus Far

A's Community Prospect List

1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video

2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video

3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video

4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video

5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - Video - OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme

6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - Video

7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson

8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - Video

9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - Video

10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - Video

11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8)

12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - Cal Sports Profile Video

13. Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23 - 34% (of 8)

14. Max Stassi, C, Age 18 - 45% (of 8)

15. Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22 - 41% (of 8)

(Bonus video of Rashun Dixon)

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):

Mattl Sulentic, OF Anthony Recker, C Shane Peterson, OF Alex Valdez

Travis Banwart, SP Matt Spencer, OF Gregorio Petit, SS

Graham Godfrey, SP Robin Rosario, OF Tommy Everidge, 1B

Clayton Mortensen, SP Ronny Morla, SP Wilfredo Solano Joel Galarraga, C

Nino Leyja, 2B Paul Smyth Conner Crumbliss Pedro Figueroade, SP

Rashun Dixon, CF Julio Ramos Daniel Straily

James Simmons, SP Ian Krol, SP Yusuf Carter Ryan Ortiz, SP

Brett Hunter, SP Anthony Huttenlocker Carlos Hernandez, SP Ben Hornbeck, SP

Reynaldo Mateo Tyler Ladendorff Shawn Haviland, SP

Mickey Storey, SP Chris Mederos Jon Meloan Josh Horton, SS

Conner Hoehn Corey Wimberly, UTL Dan Thomas

Josh Leyland, C Justin Souza Andrew Carignan, RP

Jermaine Mitchell, CF Jared Lansford, RP Justin Marks Jason Christian, 3B

If you have a prospect you want to suggest, from this list or not on it, speak up in comments!

Poll

Who is the A's #16 Prospect?

Greener Grass, Episode 5: Attendance Fact and Fiction and Why Should We Care Anyway?

2009-11-14T21:46:59Z

Me and the frog in my pocket are tired of hearing some stuff.

We are tired of people saying "Oakland can't support big league teams." But we are also tired of hearing "If the A's had an owner who embraced Oakland the attendance wouldn't be so bad, The A's were one of the best when the Haas family owned the team." Another tired phrase "The A's attendance only looks bad now because of all the other new ballparks. Before those, the A's were always a good draw." And the related "If you build it, they will come."

To be honest, we are tired of this stuff cause no one ever backs it up with any sort of detailed evidence. We are just supposed to accept it as fact because it is, you know, conventional wisdom. I HATE conventional wisdom. Queue Deftones "My Own Summer" we are getting medieval on this stuff.

First and foremost, I think people who talk about attendance in Oakland are missing a large deal of the point. Not all of the point. People showing up in the stands is one of the key revenue streams of any team. It just isn't the key driver for any potential A's move away from the city that has been their home for more than 40 years.

The real reasons are lack of realistic sites and lack of corporate base. Specious as those claims may be (or not), we came today to talk attendance. Would a new stadium in Oakland be a big draw or a colossal dud? Can we gain any insight by looking back at past attendance trends across MLB? If so, which teams should we compare them too?

Let's start with the macro view, shall we? Since 1968 it is a fact that no other team has been below the median for season attendance more often than the A's. A chart, since we all love them so much.

Notice the pretty green cones. Excel charts are fun.

I could have used average attendance as a measure, but median is a bit more fair. If you don't know the difference the easiest way to explain it is that median removes outliers from the equation. Basically, median is measured in two equal parts of 50%. Half below, half above whereas averages can be whacked out by having two teams with 4 million spectators through the turnstiles while most other teams were below 3 million. This chart shows that since the A's came to Oakland they have been in the bottom 50% more than any other team. That sucks. But does that tell the whole story?

The Oakland A's didn't exist until 1968. Of this we can be certain. And almost immediately there was talk of relocating. To New Orleans, to Dallas, to Denver, to Portland... the Bay Area simply wasn't big enough for two teams. If you look at the 70's, a decade when the A's were in the playoffs 5 times and won the whole damn thing 3 seasons in a row, the numbers sort of back that up. Both the A's and Giants were in the bottom half for most of the decade, if not the whole decade.

This time I used green pyramids!

An age old axiom in baseball is "the best marketing plan is winning on the field." I call hogwash. Or at least hogwash as it relates to the 70's in Oakland. In the Decade of the Dynasty, the A's had the most impressive World Series record and still went a perfect 10 for 10 in sucking at the gates. The other dynastic teams, the Reds and Yankees, managed to stay out of the bottom 10. The Yankees had 3 seasons below the median in the decade, the Reds had zippo.

Wait?!?!?!?! Did I just say the Yankees were in the bottom half of attendance in three seasons in a single decade? You are damn tootin'! And dare I say it wasn't even their worst showing in a single decade? But this brings to mind an interesting question. Which team(s) has/have not been in the bottom half since 1968? Maybe even before 1968 for all I know, I didn't feel like looking. The answer shall come later.

Even with the Yankees being in the bottom half for 3 seasons, the 70's are hard to celebrate from an attendance perspective. As much as I love celebrating Yankees failure, A's failure makes it less cool.

Some arguments i have heard about the A's crappy attendance in the 70's: "The Bay Area became a two team market one decade too soon." Or "Charlie Finley sucked as an owner."

The veracity of these theories can be tested in the 80's, no? I smell a chart!

This time it's 3D columns!!!

First... The A's weren't amongst the 10 worst performers!!!! Hooray! The truth is, since I picked the bottom 10 (really 11 since we had so many ties) and they were tied for 12th it is kind of my arbitrary cut off line for the chart that we should be celebrating. But any reason to bust out Kool and the Gang is a good one.

Side note, related to Kool and the Gang: I knew i was not a huge Schott and Hoffman fan when they replaced "Celebration" with "Rock and Roll All Night." The nerve of some people. I remember the first game I was at when the A's won and nary a note of Kool and the Gang was heard... it took me a minute before finally realizing why I was pissed. Back to the relevant information now, sorry.

So, theory 1... The Bay Area became a two team market one decade too soon. I would argue that this is false. The Bay Area became a two team market at least 2 decades too soon, but I am not complaining! Primarily because the A's tied for 12th in being below the median, whilst the Giants just missed a perfect decade (they tried sooooo hard). 1989 was the only season that neither team in the Bay Area was in the bottom half. It could have been worse though... Through the 80's the Seattle Club (That's Bud speak for Mariners) had never had a season in which they weren't part of the bottom feeders. And they had a market all to their lonesome.

Theory 2. The Haas family took over in 1980. While they still had a decade with more below median years than above, they (with the help of Andy Dolich) grew season ticket holders from 300 to 13,000. I'd say there might be something to this theory. Wouldn't you? I don't know if this has anything to do with embracing Oakland, but someone from the current sales and marketing staff should call Andy Dolich and ask him about what strategies he used back in the 80's. Just saying it couldn't hurt.

But... What about the 90's? The Haas family still owned the team for part of that decade, no? Another chart you ask? Of course:

3D bars. I think the pyramids are coolest.

First, can I just say that part of those 5 other teams tied with the A's at 7 seasons below the median is the Yankees? I can, and I wouldn't even be lying. But something else is kind of funny. Is there a chart yet that hasn't included the Giants, Brewers, and Twins? Nope.

It's sad to see the A's back on the suckitude chart. To round out the tale of the Haas Family, they owned the team from before the 1981 season up until the 1996 season. That is 15 seasons. In that time the A's were above the median 7 times. I am not sure what that says about Oakland, though I am pretty sure it says a great deal about what good owners the Haas Family were. Especially considering the futility before despite winning records and championships and... well shall we look at the next decade?

I went retro with an oldschool excel chart. I love this stuff.

The bottom 10, sadly including our Green and Gold heroes, is led by a 6 way tie for a perfect decade. Heck, if it wasn't for the novelty of the first season in Washington, Los Natspos would have made it a 7 way tie. 9 seasons of suckitude across 3 different cities... Mind boggling. I look at these teams and I try to find some sort of commonality... Teams that have done fire sales? Check, but not all of them. Teams that have sucked for the most part? Check, but not all of them. Teams that have won division titles and been to the playoffs more than once? Check, but what the heck are they doing on here? Teams with brand new stadiums? Check... wait, what? Teams with World Series crowns? Check... It's like crazy the huge differences in circumstances between these 10 teams. So what does it tell us about the A's in Oakland?

I look at two teams on the list as potential barometers for the A's. The Pirates and White Sox. Why? Well because before the new stadium boom, those two teams were neck and neck with A's in the race for attendance futility. They have similar circumstances. The White Sox are team number 2 in a shared market. The Pirates new stadium has a reduced capacity (only slightly larger than the tarped Coliseum). Through 1999 the A's had 25 below median seasons. The White Sox had 23. The Pirates 24. Look at those teams as the cautionary tale that says, "a new stadium in the same place doesn't change any of the dynamics that existed before in a meaningful way."

But we, the frog in my pocket was napping through most this diatribe but is awake now, choose to look at the Giants (28), Indians(25), and Padres(21). Those teams were also neck and neck with A's and found their way entirely off the bottom 10 without leaving the city they play in. It's possible in Oakland. I doubt no matter what happens that the A's will go 40 consecutive years in the top 50%, like the Dodgers.

PS- I started a facebook page that is regional in nature as opposed to the San Jose or Oakland facebook pages. It is my goal to keep people up to speed with what is going on regionally through that page. Keep the A's in the Bay Area!

Lunch time DLD 11/13/09 - Lets all move to the moon!

2009-11-13T21:42:55Z

So apprently letting spacecrafts slam into the moon was a good idea. Nasa found water on the moon.

"It's very exciting, it is painting a new image of the moon," said Gregory Deloy, from the University of California hailing it as "an extraordinary discovery."

He theorized that "one of the possible source of water is a comet."

If you are hoping to join NASA and go to the moon anytime soon, I have some bad news.

But NASA's ambitious plans to put US astronauts back on the moon by 2020 to establish manned lunar bases for further exploration to Mars under the Constellation project are increasingly in doubt.

NASA's budget is currently too small to pay for Constellation's Orion capsule, a more advanced and spacious version of the Apollo lunar module, as well as the Ares I and Ares V launchers needed to put the craft in orbit.

mlbtraderumors.com has a Offseason Outlook series and this week they are examining the San Fransisco Giants.

I can't believe the Giants have $39.5 million tied up to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar RentabadSS. Those are some sucky contracts. But at least they are getting some production out those players unlike the A's and their $12 million dollar veteran of the DL.

Lebron James called this "probably one of the top 10 dunks of all time".

Meh, it looked allright but I don't think I will be remembering it in a few years.

Anybody going to see 2012 today? My wife loves disaster movies so we will be there for the 7:10 showing. In honor of the premiere yahoo.com has this article/slideshow.

The Worst Places to Live (if you live in a disaster movie)

I liked this paragraph

The Big Apple has certainly seen its fair share of cinematic calamities, but they seem to only ever hit Manhattan. Tidal waves never engulf Queens, aliens never trash Staten Island, and 50-story marshmallow monsters never stroll through the Bronx. So if you're living in NYC and you find yourself in a disaster movie, our suggestion is move to the outer boroughs.

The last 3 cities only had 1 movie each, untapped potential don't you think? Writers need to start branch out to other cities. When is Boston going to be destroyed? A lot of commenters are mad about the article slamming Baltimore. They were just trying to be funny. Chill out!

Oh, don't forget to check out the last couple links post on the 11/11/09 DLD today and last night.

Poll

Are you goin to see 2012 this weekend?

Who are the people in the upper deck portraits?

2009-11-13T09:22:13Z

Many times during a game at the Coliseum I've found myself wondering who the portrait paintings were of just outside of the 'smoking pen' in the upper deck around 206. I've asked a few folks over the years but no one has been able to answer the question.

I was thinking the other day after lamenting the many long months until the next A's game, why not ask the good folks at AN.

Its rather sad/ odd given the rich history of the Athletics, Oakland and Philly, that there aren't many ( or any, asides from the mystery paintings? ) historical displays, stat facts, or baseball ephemera at the ballpark. It would definitely be in the interest of the owners dying for new ballpark to give fans a taste of the past and present glory of the team.

However it is a good thing that one only need to stumble over to AN to get some of what the Coli' is lacking.

Sorry if this topic doesn't quite warrant its own fanpost but I didn't want to hijack another thread. ;)

DLD 11/11/09 - Veterans Day and Baseball

2009-11-11T16:57:21Z

Happy Veterans Day to all those who have served our country, and to those who are overseas now.

via assets.mediaspanonline.com

A's pitcher and WWII vet Lou Brissie

Military doctors said, "Amputate the leg." The corporal with a contract to play Major League Baseball said, "No."

A star in the textile baseball league of South Carolina, Leland Lou Brissie of North Augusta turned down a signing bonus with the Dodgers before signing with the Philadelphia A's. His baseball career was set. And then came World War II.

"The Dodgers made an offer with a $25,000 bonus, but I turned it down to sign with the Athletics. I signed in 1941, and the deal was I attend college for three years and then report to the ball club. That never happened. The war came along and most of us didn't get our three years in."

Brissie enlisted in the 88th Infantry Division of the United States Army in 1942. In the spring of 1944, his unit was sent to Italy to combat the Axis powers. On Dec. 7, 1944, Brissie's life changed forever.

A story about some Athletics during the Great Depression and World War II

When the total loss of players to the war effort was calculated, the Athletics had contributed more personnel, 36, than any other team in baseball.

But the Athletics had finished last in 1941, before the war. The couldn't blame military inductions for their poor showing. Throughout the war, with the exception of an aberrational fifth-place finish in 1944, the American League cellar remained in the sole possession of the Athletics.

And of course, 1944 was also the year the St. Louis Browns turned the baseball world on its ear by winning the American League Pennant!

As the players returned from the war, there were massive roster changes throughout the league. For the Athletics the 1946 season meant another cellar finish, but things were looking better. In 1947, the Athletics produced their first winning season in 15 years, gaining a fifth-place finish.

via cache.thephoenix.com

This is a long read, but a damn good one about WWII vet and Hall of Famer Ted Williams by John Updike.

For me, Williams is the classic ballplayer of the game on a hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill.

Comparative Advantage: A Collaborative A's/Rays Solution

2009-11-10T07:55:07Z

I've been paying close attention to trades for a few years now. And I have to say, rarely if ever have I seen a better match than the Rays and the A's right now. Each team has areas of significant strength and significant weakness. With the exception of outfielders, each team's strength happens to BE the other team's weakness. And both have a number of tradable assets unencumbered by bloated salaries or impending free agency. They really need to get together and make a deal, and I'm here to tell you have.

Warning: This is really long. I tend toward the verbose at the best of times, and the rambling at the worst. If you want the quick and dirty, skip down to the two bolded trade proposals at the bottom of the post.

Point The First: The Rays Have Too Many Infielders

Here are the triple-slash lines and WAR figures posted by the Rays' starting infielders in the 2009 season.

Jason Bartlett: .320/.389/.490; 4.8 WAR

Ben Zobrist: .297/.405/.543; 8.5 WAR

Evan Longoria: .281/.364/.526; 7.3 WAR

Carlos Pena: .227/.356/.537; 2.7 WAR

It's hard to argue that this was not the best infield in baseball in 2009. The Yankees were pretty good, but the Rays fielded the single-year equivalent of 2 Hall of Famers, another All-Star, and an average starter for a playoff team. That's insane. These men are not losing their jobs, regression to the mean be damned.

That said, the Rays also currently have three backups available:

Sean Rodriguez

Willy Aybar

Reid Brignac

Akinori Iwamura has already been dumped. I wasn't a fan of that trade at all-- they seem to have panicked and feared being stuck with him through the start of next season. I can't imagine how that could have happened-- he's basically an average starter signed to a contract that pays him like a backup or fringe starter. Someone would have absorbed it. But it's all water under the bridge now.

Rodriguez is a quality prospect acquired from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade. The A's seem to like him, and were rumored to be considering a swap which would have sent Michael Wuertz to the Angels for him, although like all trade rumors, it's unclear how much credence we should put in that. While he's struggled badly in his MLB time so far, he's posted solid walk rates throughout his career in the minors, posted the usual ridiculous power numbers for an Angels prospect (if chicks really do dig the longball, the Salt Lake Bees' home park must be quite the dating opportunity) and appears to be able to handle several infield positions competently.

Aybar is a backup/platoon infielder. He's poor against lefthanded pitching and average at defense at 2B and 3B, so he's not well suited to be a starter. He won't be discussed further here; I'm assuming he will be kept on the Rays bench as the sixth infielder.

Reid Brignac is another former top prospect, and like Rodriguez he's struggled in very limited MLB time. He's still young (2010 will represent his age 24 season), has shown decent pop in the minors (career minor league isolated power of .167; hit 24 home runs in 2006) and is viewed as having a strong glove by most scouts and by TotalZone. Unlike Rodriguez, however, he lacks patience at the plate.

As things stand, the Rays will almost certainly be forced to send one of Rodriguez and Brignac to the minors. This seems suboptimal, as one of them will probably be playing a role sooner rather than later and both are essentially big-league ready. Instead, Tampa should look to move one of their infielders to address other weak spots on the roster.

Point The Second: The Rays' Catching Situation, By And Large, Sucks

Let's start with the general and move to the specific here. The 2009 Rays offense was very strong overall-- indeed, it set a team record for runs scored. It was, however, marred by two severe weak points. One of those was center field, manned by former wunderkind B.J. Upton. This is not the time or place to attempt an explanation of his troubles; let's just say that given his age and defensive acumen, he's on a sufficiently long leash that the Rays are likely not looking to upgrade center field. The other black hole was at catcher.

Even by the rather feeble standards of catcher offense, the Rays were horrible. Their catchers put up a combined .233/.276/.349 line, good for an sOPS+ of 74 (indicating that they were 26/2=13% worse than an average team at that position). Rays catchers were good for all of 0.8 WAR on the season, or almost a win and a half below average. The primary culprit was also the primary starter, Dioner Navarro, who followed up an uncharacteristically good 2008 with a genuinely horrible season. In just less than three full seasons' worth of PA, he has racked up an offensive value of -45.9 runs by Fangraphs. This is not that terrible-- as mentioned, catchers are awful offensively and the positional value of 12.5 runs largely cancels it out. Still, expecting even league-average play out of Navarro next season seems very optimistic.

The gaggle of backup catchers in the system are even less awe-inspiring. Michel Hernandez served as the primary backup in 2009, but he's 30 years old and hasn't even lost his rookie status yet. As far as I can tell, he's been released. Gregg Zaun could still end up taking arbitration, though his option was declined; his numbers are actually quasi-respectable, but he's approximately 60 years old and clearly not a long-term solution. Shawn Riggans barely played in 2009 and was horrible when he did; his career MLB wOBA is .274, and while that's a small sample, he's turning 30 next year and there's little reason to expect improvement. John Jaso, the last real internal option, has great plate discipline but is dogged by persistent questions about his defensive abilities and suffered a major power outage in 2009. The fact that he wasn't even called up to the big leagues once in 2009 is an implied vote of no confidence from Rays brass.

There's little help available on the free agent market. Tampa can likely find some more Riggins types by dumpster-diving (hello, Eliezer Alfonso-- how's it hangin'?) but that's about all that's out there. Jason Varitek is probably the best MLB free agent catcher, which is amazing. There's nothing there; if they want a chance to improve, it'll be by trade.

Enter Oakland, which has a surplus of catching talent right now. The MLB job is safely in the hands of Kurt Suzuki, who rarely sits and racks up value through playing time and defense while being passable with the bat. The A's also have three additional catchers at or near the major-league level and under team control, however-- Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Recker. Powell has had a ton of health problems and while he'd be a pretty solid candidate for a starter's job without them, that's water under the bridge at this point. Recker profiles more like Jaso, with more power and less plate discipline. He's a solid candidate for a team's second or third catcher, but it's a stretch to see him starting for anyone other than a team desperate for a warm body not named Rod Barajas.

The key to the whole situation is Josh Donaldson, who has put up some weird numbers in the minors (especially a walk rate which has fluctuated from amazing to actually below average) but, overall, a very strong hitting line since being drafted in the first round in 2007. He's still young for a catcher, turning 24 in a few months, and while his defense is not fabulous (Pravda claims some improvement in his skills, but those articles have to be read as carefully as Livy to figure out the grains of truth in them), he should hit legitimately at the major league level, something that any team has to hope for out of their catcher spot.

Donaldson would instantly become the best catcher in the Rays' system not named Navarro. In the best case scenario, in which Navarro hits like 2008 and a re-signed Zaun miraculously holds off demon Age for another season, he polishes his skills in AAA prior to a September callup. In the worst case scenario, Zaun falls apart, Navarro hits like it's... well, not 2008, and Donaldson is starting in the bigs by June. Navarro is nontendered that offseason and Donaldson takes the reins for the foreseeable future.

Point the Third: Oakland Lives, Breathes and Excretes Bullpen Pitchers

Here's something like what the current depth chart for Oakland's bullpen looks like.

RHP:

Michael Wuertz

Sam Demel

LHP:

For the most part, this excludes starting pitchers. Eveland could theoretically get a starting job, but it's hard to see how at this point.

In any event, this is insane. There are 13 guys at Oakland or Sacramento who could be average or better relief pitchers. This is despite the subtraction of two significant prospects, Daniel Thomas and Andrew Carignan, to shoulder issues; despite the subtraction of 2008 mainstay Andrew Brown to the same (Tangent: anyone heard any news on whether he's managed to make a recovery? I loved that guy... he was such an odd character...); and not counting several intriguing pitchers lower down in the system like Mickey Storey and Paul Smyth.

[Tangent: Notice the origins of these guys? Santiago Casilla and Henry Rodriguez were signed as low-profile international free agents. Eveland was a peripheral piece of a major trade. Wuertz was acquired for two organizational players. Blevins was acquired for half a season of Jason Kendall. Devine was picked up for one season of Mark Kotsay. Meloan and Breslow were acquired for bupkis-- they were waiver claims. Brad Ziegler was signed as a minor league free agent. Then there are the draftees: Demel (3rd round), Bailey (6th round), Kilby (29th round), and Jeff Gray (32nd round).

The sum total of the resources the A's spent on this incredible collection of bullpen talent was four mid-to-late round picks, two C- prospects, and the corpses of two formerly good major leaguers. This is an object lesson in why it is never, ever, ever acceptable to expend a first-round draft pick on a relief pitcher. Ever. Or sign a Type A free agent relief pitcher.]

[Tangent to the tangent: What would happen if teams actually took this to heart? Type A relievers would virtually be forced to take arbitration if a team offered it-- indeed, that may already be the case in practice for anyone but the creme de la creme. It certainly presents an odd scenario. I'll be watching that situation with alert interest this offseason.]

Bottom line: The A's can afford to part with 3 or 4 of these pitchers without any real hesitation. That still leaves more than enough depth to withstand injuries. The team will probably trawl the minor league free agent list again this offseason to find one or two more guys worthy of a shot, and if a major crisis hits they might be turned to. Otherwise, even a denuded bullpen will be sufficient.

The Rays do not enjoy the same situation. Or, really, anything close to it. For whatever reason, their otherwise crack GM team has not succeeded in consistently putting together a good bullpen. It was briefly decent in 2008, but that was on the back of journeyman Grant Balfour, whose season that year now looks like an all-time fluke. He's still under team control in 2009, but might not even be tendered a contract. The only genuinely good reliever the Rays have at the major league level is J.P. Howell. Dan Wheeler has a spot because he's a sunk cost, but it confounds me that a team with the Rays' financial limitations gave a $10M contract to a mediocre relief pitcher. Randy Choate is decent and probably fills the second lefty spot.

Is there any help in Durham? The Bulls were an excellent minor league team this season, losing the AAA championship game to the Memphis Redbirds (who unseated the RiverCats from the PCL throne in a three-game sweep). Not much there, though. Winston Abreu had a great season, but he's 32 and hasn't stuck in the bigs in three tries despite consistently shredding AAA lineups. Like most of the Rays bullpen, he's incredibly prone to the gopherball.

As a result, the Rays need at least one and probably two good right-handed relief pitchers if they intend to compete in 2010 (as they should). They have two choices. One is to convert one of their excellent starting pitching prospects to the bullpen. The other is to make a trade.

Here's the thing, though-- starters are worth more than relievers. Way more. Converting starting pitching prospects to the pen is a wasteful process. The Rays can obtain surplus value by dealing one of those starters to a team with a surplus of good relief pitchers-- and coincidentally enough (OK, not coincidentally at all) the A's are exactly such a team. The A's need to concentrate value. The Rays actually need to spread it out, or at least move it from one part of the roster to the other. We've got a tailor-made trade situation here.

Point the Fourth: Putting the Pieces Together

Warning: The following requires large amounts of half-assed guesswork and projection based on minimal data samples. If this offends you, please stop reading, or at least skip to the end so you can tell me how obviously unfair this trade is to the [A's/Rays].

Donaldson

Let's take Josh Donaldson first, as he's the one guy we know is moving. The MLE for his performance this year was a line of .209/.291/.324. That looks really terrible, but it's deceptive. One wouldn't expect a 23-year-old to particularly dominate the minors. Also, it's based on a BABIP of .249, which seems comically low even for a catcher. It should be reasonable to predict improvement from that mark over the next few seasons.

The MLE line would be in the neighborhood of 20 runs below average over 120 games' worth of play. Over the same period he would accrue about 23 runs in positional value and playing-time value. That would make him worth about 0.3 WAR this season. He's a bit of an iffy defender, though, so let's call him exactly replacement level this season.

I'm going to project steady improvement over the next three seasons, though. Partly because it's easy and partly because it represents the center of a probability distribution ranging from "no improvement at all" to "breakout to star-level offense." Let's assume he picks up about 6 runs a season per year for the next three years, and that he plays only half a season next year (60 games). Let's also assume he starts declining in his age 30 season at half the rate that he ascended at. His value then looks like this:

0.3+1.2+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.8+1.5=10.2 WAR

Rodriguez

Sean Rodriguez had a rather excellent season in AAA this year, posting an MLE line of .236/.325/.452. He has also, however, struggled terribly in the majors so far in his young career. It's nothing that can't be overcome (a mere 216 plate appearances) but in those PAs he's put up the ugly line of .203/.276/.333, coincidentally rather similar to Donaldson's MLE from this year. That being said, it has to be leavened with the AAA numbers. Right now, if Rodriguez were to step into a lineup and play everyday, I'd peg him for around a .700 OPS. While he's slightly older than Donaldson, he should also improve steadily over the next few seasons. His bat probably has a bit more upside in it, so I'll call his improvement 8 runs a season until his age 26 season.

We have only tiny samples of major league play to go on when it comes to defense for Rodriguez. Some TotalZone has tended to characterize him as about an average infielder in the minors, oddly varying not a jot from position to position. Let's call him an average second baseman, as that weighs his apparent decency at shortstop against the fact that average in AAA is probably below average in the majors. What value does all of this give us?

Right now, he would be roughly 10 runs below average with the stick, with a +2.5 position/defense adjustment and 20-ish replacement runs for a WAR of about 1.3. Measuring that out (I won't bother declining him at age 30, as infielders tend to last longer than catchers):

1.3+2.1+2.9+2.9+2.9+2.9=15 WAR

Hm. Pretty valuable. More so than Donaldson. If he's the return piece, we'll need the other half of the trade to make up some ground.

Brignac

You can really see the difference in MLEs between the International League and the Texas League here, as Brignac comes in ahead of Donaldson in MLE (.245/.281/.354) despite posting a significantly worse in-season hitting line. Disappointingly, however, his line has basically stagnated since he was 20. This stagnation has been matched with a stagnation in his prospect stock, as he's failed to improve while other top prospects have passed him by. I'm a bit surprised to see he only received a grade of C+ from John Sickels last season.

What can we project from him moving forward? He doesn't have fantastic hitting skills; his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired and his power production has, like the rest of his offensive game, seemingly stalled. Right now, he would hit at about 20 runs below average. I'm going to project an improvement of 3 runs a season to age 27.

On defense, it's a different story. TotalZone pretty much thinks he's the bee's vertebrae, if not quite knees-- he scored poorly this year but very well in every prior year. I'm fairly comfortable penciling him in as an above-average MLB shortstop. Let's say 2.5 RAA so that it plus the positional adjustment makes him 10 RAA as a fielder. Add in 20 replacement runs, and right now he'd be worth about 1 WAR. Again, I'm going to project a half-season from him next year and then six years beyond that.

0.5+1.3+1.6+1.9+1.9+1.9+1.9=11 WAR

Seemingly a little better than Donaldson, but in the ballpark where a swap of the two is likely to benefit both teams.

Relievers

Thankfully, we don't have to get into the heavy-duty (and heavy-handed) guesswork here. Most of these guys have actual track records.

The Elite

Bailey: Nasty 2.56 FIP this season led him to accumulate 2.4 WAR. Assuming some regression to the mean, he's probably good for at least 1.5 for the next 5 seasons. Of course, he's a pitcher, so we'd better mark in some discount for injury risk (especially since he already has one round of Tommy John on his CV). Call it 1.2, then, implying that he's worth about 6 WAR overall.

Wuertz: Even nastier 2.37 FIP this season, though he's not been as good in prior years. Probably about as good as Bailey going forward, since the personal "mean" that he's regressing to looks a lot like the league mean that Bailey is regressing to, but he's only under contract for 2 more (relatively expensive) seasons. Worth about 2.4 WAR, but they're less efficient than the other prospects'.

The Very Good

Ziegler: FIP doesn't really do Brad Ziegler enough credit because of his insanely high ground ball rate. His home run rate is tiny, of course, but they also get him out of a lot of jams through double plays. In his first two seasons, one a partial year, he's assembled 2.1 WAR. After we discount for injury risk (which might be lower for submariners but-- as Pat Neshek could tell you-- doesn't disappear), he looks to be worth about .9 WAR a season to me, or 4.5 over 5 years.

Joey Devine: His 2008 FIP was sick (under 2) but somewhat based on not actually allowing ANY homers on 44 flyballs. This is not likely to continue. He also had some crappy performances in prior years (albeit in very small samples). Health is clearly an issue for him seeing as how he missed the whole 2009 season with Tommy John. I'm going to assume he misses the first 2 months of next year rehabbing, and discount him by 50% to account for injuries. That pegs him at about 0.7 WAR a season after next year and about 0.5 WAR next year, for a total of 3.3 over 5 years.

Jerry Blevins: He was squeezed out of the bullpen in a numbers game this year, but the man knows how to pitch. Only three lefthanded relievers with at least 20 IP bettered his 3.01 FIP in 2009, and that number was assembled without the benefit of a ridiculous home run rate. He's somewhat flyball prone, so he's unlikely to be truly elite, but he's amassed 0.9 WAR in about a year's worth of IP, and he's pretty durable. Regressing that somewhat, but accounting for the fact that he still has 6 years of control (I think), he should be worth around 4 WAR.

The OK

Craig Breslow: Something of a revelation this year, as he pitched competently for the A's after a waiver claim. Amazingly, this is his fifth organization in five years. He's been averaging about 0.6 WAR per season (roughly a league-average reliever), but he's no spring chicken and will probably decline somewhat over the 4 years remaining before he would become a free agent. Overall probably worth around 1.5 WAR.

Dana Eveland: Had a horrible season as a starter this year, but his fringy control and decent lefty stuff might play a bit better in a bullpen role. His career FIP of 4.36 would probably drop some, to more like 4-- still not great, but good enough to make him an option as a second lefty. Four seasons of Eveland at 0.4 WAR a pop put his value at about 1.6 WAR total.

The Mediocre

Santiago Casilla: In six partial seasons, Casilla has only managed to amass 0.4 WAR total. He may or may not be better than Jesse Chavez, since at least he's in positive territory, but he never really seemed to recover from an elbow sprain in May 2008, as his control seemingly vanished after the injury. He's now up for arbitration and will probably be nontendered. Might be useful as a throw-in in our trade, though, so let's credit him with 0.3 WAR value (0.1 a season).

The Prospects

Jeff Gray: His numbers make him look like a control specialist, but he does throw fairly hard. He's been a bit longball-prone in his career, which would make him fit right in on the Rays' staff (... sorry). Does get ground balls, though, if not quite at the rate of college chum Ziegler (interestingly, the other future MLB player on their team at the time was, of all people, Ryan Howard). He hasn't dominated the minors, so expecting him to be more than an average reliever is probably excessively optimistic. Discounting for injury risk, he's probably worth about 2.5 WAR total.

Brad Kilby: If you haven't watched his pitching motion, check it out. It's a trip. He literally hides the ball behind his left butt-cheek until he's halfway through his delivery. This apparently works like a charm, because he struck out 97 batters in 80 1/3 innings this season. Unlike Gray, Kilby HAS dominated the minors, and while his fastball isn't shooting off sparks as it approaches the plate, he's got good velocity on it for a lefty reliever. This year he was on pace to be worth about 1.6 WAR. Discounting that as usual, but keeping in mind his stellar track record and sturdy build, he seems like a 1 WAR a year kind of guy, and that's worth a total of 5.5 or so over 6 seasons, discounting a bit for decline at the end.

Henry Rodriguez: There probably isn't a pitcher with a more unhittable fastball in all of prospect-dom. Unfortunately, the strategy to beat Henry Rodriguez does not involve swinging at said fastball. He walked 41 batters in 52 1/3 innings this season. He has also, for whatever reason, consistently posted BABIPs against that range from bad to baffling. If Barry Zito is one end of the BABIP-as-skill spectrum, so far it looks like Rodriguez is at the extreme other end. Trying to project him as a reliever is basically hopeless, so I'm going to give up and pretend that he's 2009 Carlos Marmol, who posted a WAR of 0.6 despite being very lucky on home run balls. I'll credit Rodriguez with 0.3 WAR a season, or a total of 1.8 over six years.

John Meloan: Hm, seems he was already in Tampa's system earlier this year. Whoops-a-daisy. He seemed to finally put it together late this season after yo-yoing around half the parks in AAA. Trying to make head or tail out of a statline which has seen him play in 14 different parks in 4 seasons is not easy, but he looks sort of averagey, maybe a bit worse. I'm calling him the same as Rodriguez, albeit for different reasons. Another 1.8 WAR player.

Sam Demel: The wildest card of all, as he's never played in the majors. He's consistently maintained about a strikeout an inning in the minors, though, and while his control isn't all that great, it comes with a power sinker which gets a ton of ground balls (55.4% for his career) and two offspeed pitches. He looks a lot like a young Jason Grimsley, who varied from good to awful at times in his major league career, but was if nothing else always interesting to watch. (As far as I know, Demel doesn't have the roid rage. But he's pretty comparable otherwise.) Projecting his skill is pure guesswork, but I think he'll put up 3 WAR or so in his period of team control. Your mileage may vary.

Let's map out some potential trades, then.

Donaldson should mostly cover the value of Brignac, if the A's want him. If they prefer Sean Rodriguez, we're looking at dealing one of the high-value relievers along with him. Donaldson plus Devine gets most of the way there, but the Rays will probably be looking for more. Throwing in Jeff Gray would make the values very close to even and seems like an excellent trade for both teams. Brignac is undoubtedly capable of handling any infield position well enough, and even if there's an adjustment period, Aybar is also available to cover the corner spots. Meanwhile, the Rays turn the surplus from the Kazmir deal into one reliever who is elite if healthy, another who seems to be pretty decent, and the catcher of the future.

Trade Proposal One: Donaldson, Devine and Gray for Sean Rodriguez

Now, what about if the Rays really want to keep Rodriguez? Donaldson for Brignac is a fairly even swap, but the Rays clearly can take advantage of Oakland's pitching depth. What else have they got in return? Well, as I mentioned, they've got a bunch of starting pitching prospects lurking around. Nick Barnese, Adam Moore, and Jake McGee are intriguing.

Barnese has suffered some injury problems but overall did well in Low-A ball this season. His strikeout rate was down a little, but he has quality stuff and projectability on his side, along with youth.

Matt Moore is a bit better than Barnese from the statistical side of things, except that he's had command issues at times. His strikeout rate is disgusting (and constant-- basically about 12.8 per 9 innings throughout his pro career). He did a better job than Barnese of staying healthy this season.

Jake McGee is a bit older and would be closer to the majors, except that he had Tommy John surgery in mid-2009 and only just got back into the swing of things late this year. He played some rookie ball this year and predictably blew it away, but struggled some in High-A ball. A lot of that was bad BABIP, but it does raise some concern over whether he's really 100%.

I think McGee is the right choice here. Moore and Barnese are a few years away, and by that time, the Rays may need reinforcements for their rotation. Right now, those concerns are nonexistent. Price/Shields/Garza/Davis/Niemann is as good a group as any in the game.

So the question then becomes how much reliever value is needed to cancel out the starter value of McGee. He has high flameout potential (there's probably a 50% or greater chance he never starts a game in the majors) but also high upside. There's no question but that the Rays will want two guys back, and they need righties more than lefties at this point.

The Devine/Gray package again looks fairly attractive here, or the Rays might prefer Ziegler. Their need for right-handed relief that can get righties out is acute, and few are better than Ziegler at that task. They'd probably want a prospect included with him, and it makes sense for the A's to give them one. Again Rodriguez seems to make a lot of sense, but if they're not interested in dealing with his issues, Gray probably offers similar value in a different sort of package.

Thus, we have

Trade Proposal #2: Josh Donaldson, Brad Ziegler, and Henry Rodriguez for Reid Brignac and Jake McGee.

You must be champing at the bit right now, either to tell me how awful my logic is, or how you wish this trade would happen but it never will, or something. Fire away. I've invited DRaysBay over to participate in what I hope will be a collaborative process, so be nice to them.

Have at ye. I'll check back in in the morning to see what's the haps.

(Un)official AN Tech Request Thread

2009-11-10T07:41:49Z

I don’t know what the upgrade schedule is for the SB Nation tech crew, but now that they’re done with the minor facelift and the regular season is over, I figure this is a good time to exchange notes about technical fixes and feature requests. I’ve seen occasional comments in other threads over the year, but I’m sure the techs never see them. If we put them all in one place, maybe they will.

Although the two are sometimes connected, I’d rather not let this thread be about the recent update to the look of the site. Perhaps there could be another thread for that. For this one I’m more interested in functionality than appearance.

Here's what I've collected on my wish list over the past year.

Do something about auto-format in comments.

If you type

_emphasis_

it comes out as

emphasis

This trick, along with other similar ones, was presumably intended to be helpful.

Unfortunately, there are also many undesired consequences. For example, if you write a syntactically reasonable sentence like:

His UZR was -1.5 but his wOBA was .350, so
over all I’d give him an A-

it would come out as

His UZR was ~~1.5 but his wOBA was .350, so over all I’d give him an A~~

Other examples abound.

Personally, I’m not bothered by auto-format. I have a pretty good idea of how the code algorithms work and I habitually use preview, so I am almost never tripped up by it. I do make use of it fairly often, but there’s nothing I use it for that I couldn’t do almost as easily with basic HTML tags. If I save a few keystrokes typing

_very_

instead of

<i>very</i>

I lose them right back when I have to type

&#42;sigh&#42;

to get

*sigh*

For me, the net gain is pretty trivial. For most other users I suspect the net is negative. My impression from what I’ve read in the threads is that most people dislike autoformat, and several loathe it with a passion. Few actually like it, and those who do use it, like me, wouldn’t miss it much if it were gone. (The poll below will get a fresh read on that to see if I’m right.

I can think of several ways in which auto-format could be improved, but I think the simplest solution would be just to get rid of it altogether.

Don’t mark all comments read when leaving a page.

It’s number two on this list, but for me personally this is my number one complaint and request. There are many many reasons why I might leave a thread before I’ve read all the comments, some intentional and some not. Maybe I have limited time, so I am able to read a few of the comments but not all of them. Or maybe I’m not in a hurry but the thread is so huge I need to take a break before I’m finished. Maybe I open up a thread but my browser chokes on an ad and crashes. Maybe I click on a link and forget to make it open in a separate tab. Maybe I’m in a busy game thread and just as I’m about to click "post" the screen jumps around with new comments so that my click lands on someone’s name instead, sending me to their user page. Maybe I’m just stupid and close the page when I didn’t want to.

No matter what the reason, when I come back to the thread, all the comments are marked read, even though I’ve read only some of them. This is very annoying. The feature that marks comments read is a wonderful wonderful thing and is a major part of SB Nation’s awesomeness. But the wonderfulness is rudely taken away any time it marks comments read when I haven’t read them yet.

There is almost no reason to deliberately mark all the comments read when leaving a thread. If you’re not done reading yet, you want them to remain in unread mode. If you are done reading, they’re all marked read anyway, so it doesn't matter. If you’ve lost interest and don’t intend to finish, you aren't coming back so against it doesn't matter. The only time you’d want them all marked is if you read them all but without using X and Z along the way, or in the unlikely event that you decide you don’t want to read the current comments but you do want to read any new ones that come along. And if ever that’s the case, all you have to do is type shift-A before leaving.

I don’t know how a user's comments-read data is stored, so I can’t say whether this is an easy fix or a hard one, but even if it is hard, it’s something you should figure out and make work, because it would be a big big improvement.

Different sig lines on different blogs

In the days before the SB Nation conglomeration, I had a sigline on Lookout Landing that said something like "visiting Oakland A's fan". It's useful to use the signature as a way to identify yourself, and how you would introduce yourself in a sports bar you only occasionally visit may be different from what you say to the gang where everybody knows your name.

Under the new regime, you get just one sigline and you have to use it everywhere. That sucks.

Earlier this year on LL I saw a line that I very much wanted to make my sigline there, but it was Seattle-centric, and it would confuse people if it were to appear on AN, so I couldn't use it. That sucks. I want to be able to have a different sigline on each blog.

(While you're at it, you may want to impose a maximum size on siglines. Right now, it's something enormous. Personally I don't like any sigline that goes beyond one line on a full column, but I know that would never fly with others here. Still, you could at least stop people from having a whole freakin' short story under every comment, as a few people have done.)

Subject lines for comments

An item on Lookout Landing’s style guide says:

Always use the subject line when making a comment. Even if it's one word that leads into your post. There are a few reasons for this, among them being that it makes comments easy to hide if necessary (while at work, some people don't want some of the more...shall we say, expressive images on their monitors for all to see), that it allows for easier moderation of comments, and that it just looks better.

AN is generally more permissive than LL, but I for one wish that subject lines were used more consistently here.

I love the feature for collapsing comments. (For those who don’t know, if you click on the subject line of a comment, it collapses down to just the subject line. Then if you click again the full comment returns.) I use this with great regularity. It’s especially useful on game threads with lots of pictures, but I’ll frequently reduce long text comments as well. I just like to tidy up the page and make it so I don’t have to scroll so far on a long thread.

But if a comment has no subject line, this does not work. Also, if you have your default comment format set to "closed" on your user settings – I experimented with this for a while, but am not using it now – any comment with no subject line disappears completely and can’t be retrieved at all.

Everything would work better if all comments had subject lines. However, I know my peers on AN, and I know that if someone tried to post without a subject line and got an error message saying "you must provide a subject line", that would piss people off. So instead of doing that, why not have a default subject line that always fills in? Any time someone posts without a subject line, AN makes one that says "..." or "[no subject]" or whatever.

Et cetera

Keep screen focused on highlighted comment. I've only noticed this on fast-moving gamethreads, but when a bunch of new comments come in, it makes things move around on the screen. If I'm in the process of reading unread comments, this can be confusing because it bumps my current comment right off the screen, forcing me to scroll around to figure out where the heck I was. Is it possible to make it so the highlighted comment stays visible?

Prevent excessive consecutive FanPosts. There have been a few times where an enthusiastic newcomer comes along and proceeds to write three or four FanPosts in one afternoon, shoving others off the front-page list prematurely. We don't want to limit participation too much, but I wonder if it isn't a good idea to impose a mild limit, like maybe no more than two per day. Or if it's possible, arrange it so that if you do post multiple successive fanposts, you bump your own off the list, not someone else's.

Underline. I would like to see <u> supported for underlines. (The HTML tag is fine, no need for auto-formatting.)

SF Gate links. If you include a URL in a comment, AN knows to convert it to a link. Ideally, posters would use the link tool instead, but since they often don't, this is a handy backup feature. However, the feature fails on SF Gate links. I think it has to do with the "=/" characters that appear in every SF Gate URL. AN thinks the URL ends with the equals sign, so the link is busted.

'Clear' button for new comment. If I type a reply to someone and then on second thought decide not to post, I click the "cancel" button and it's gone. If I'm typing a fresh comment at the bottom of the thread, there is no "cancel" button until I preview. Then if I cancel, it only makes the preview go away, but the text I typed is still there in the window until I deliberately delete it. I want a "clear" button to delete the rejected text.

Seconds in time stamp. There have been a few times in game threads when it was debated who said something first, where it would be fun to see the time stamp to the second. But maybe that's excessive....

That's everything on my list. If you have others, or further comments on any of these, please add them in the comments.

Poll

What do you think of AN’s auto-formatting in comments?

Bill James 2010 Projections Now on Fangraphs

2009-11-09T21:53:52Z

I just got through perusing the Bill James 2010 projections that have been posted on the Fangraphs player pages. Some have suggested that James' projections are fairly optimistic...that may be true generally, but it doesn't seem to be the case with his projections for the 2010 A's position players. Even so, there seems to be a few reasons for optimism next season, if you're a believer in James' method of evaluation. Here are some of the highlights:

Barton - .254/.357/.405/.762 with 5 homers

I think Barton could very easily beat this projection, but not by leaps and bounds. I think his BA and OBP will be a little higher than this and I think he'll also post a higher slugging %. I'm guessing that he'll be more like .270/.370/.420 with about 12 homers. He won't ever be an All Star, but he'll be a decent contributor, playing good defense at 1st and approaching an .800 OPS.

Sweeney - .290/.351/.403/.754 with 8 homers.

I think this is about right for Sweeney. The power just isn't there at this point in his career, and he'll be 25 next season, so if it doesn't come soon, it might never come...like Barton, if he continues to play fine defense, he'll be a positive contributor regardless.

Rajai - .284/.339/.379/.718 with 50 STEALS!

This projection seems about right as well. James has Rajai slipping down to a more-normal-but-still-high .330 BABIP, probably due to his speed. With his defense and speed, I think we'll all be pretty happy if Rajai can put that triple-slash line together next season.

Hairston - .271/.325/.478/.803 with 20 homers.

James projects Hairston to bounce back in a big way. That type of line is definitely what I expected Hairston to do when he first got here. If he can stay healthy, I think he's plenty capable of putting this line together.

Cust - .253/.385/.464/.849 with 25 homers

James loves Cust for some reason. I think this projection is considerably over-optimistic. I think Jack will get-base at about a .380 clip, but with only slug for like .440. I'm projecting more of a .240/.380/.440 line with 25 homers, which is still a nice bounce-back year for him.

Suzuki - .275/.334/.412/.746 with 13 homers

Just about right for Kurt, in my opinion.

Pennington - .251/.338/.338/.676 with 2 homers and 13 steals

Whenever someone posts identical OBP/Slugging percentages, that person is either a Nick Johnson or Bobby Abreu type of on-base machine, or is a Bobby Crosby-ian type of punchless offensive player. I believe Pennington is much closer to being the latter...man, I really wish Beane could have swooped in and grabbed JJ Hardy...I hope Pennington can play pretty damn good defense, because that slugging percentage totally depresses me.

According to James, the A's pitching staff will be pretty damn awesome, with the exception of Cahill:

Braden - 3.94 FIP

Anderson - 3.63 FIP

Gio - 4.61 FIP

Mazzaro - 3.88 FIP

Cahill - 5.12 FIP

Eveland - 4.26 FIP

Kilby - 3.33 FIP

Bailey - 3.62 FIP

Breslow - 3.68 FIP

Devine - 2.89 FIP

Ziggy - 3.48 FIP

Wuertz - 3.31 FIP

Blevins - 3.07

GRay - 3.70 FIP

OVerall, it seems like James is projecting the A's to have a pretty deep and talented pitching staff and a mediocre offense buoyed up by a few bounce back years from some vets and a few league-average performances around the diamond, with a major speed attack via Rajai and little power. As long as the team plays strong defense next season, I'd be mostly happy if these projections came true and if Beane can add some sort of league average+ hitter at 3rd (Glaus?) and some sort of veteran better-than-average starter...I'm thinking that if all of that came to be, the 2010 A's could by like the 2009 Mariners, but a bit better offensively and a little worse defensively. That should at least position the A's to be a .500 at least, which would be a very welcome change...

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SH	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2006	Azl Athletics	Ariz	20	OAK	Rk	2	6	6.07	13	8	0	0	1	0	43.0	59	39	29	4	11	27	2	12.3	0.8	2.3	5.7	1.63
2007	Vancouver	Nwst	21	OAK	A-	2	2	4.30	17	7	0	0	3	1	44.0	41	26	21	2	31	35	4	8.4	0.4	6.3	7.2	1.64
2008	Vancouver	Nwst	22	OAK	A-	2	5	3.93	15	15	0	0	0	0	68.2	62	37	30	3	32	77	3	8.1	0.4	4.2	10.1	1.37
2009	Kane County	Midw	23	OAK	A	10	2	3.23	16	16	0	0	0	0	86.1	89	37	31	6	31	78	6	9.3	0.6	3.2	8.1	1.39
	Stockton	Calif	23	OAK	A+	3	4	3.56	11	11	0	0	0	0	65.2	62	27	26	3	35	67	4	8.5	0.4	4.8	9.2	1.48

Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s)						19	19	4.01	72	57	0	0	4	1	307.2	313	166	137	18	140	284	19	9.2	0.5	4.1	8.3	1.47

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
STO (oak)	A+	26	.220	.304	.330	1	8	2	14	4
KAN (oak)	A	93	.254	.345	.410	8	42	18	56	22

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
SAC (oak)	AAA	23	7-7	5.72	119.2	139	47	81	0	1.55

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	1	0-1	16.20	3.1	5	4	1	0	2.70
STO (oak)	A+	21	5-4	3.52	76.2	64	32	111	1	1.25

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SFD (stl)	AA	18	.284	.338	.405	1	7	2	10	4
MID (oak)	AA	57	.276	.335	.399	4	24	6	26	14

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
OAK	MLB	11	1-0	0.53	17.0	10	4	10	0	0.82
SAC (oak)	AAA	45	4-2	2.13	63.1	40	24	77	2	1.01

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Mattl Sulentic, OF	Anthony Recker, C	Shane Peterson, OF	Alex Valdez
	Travis Banwart, SP	Matt Spencer, OF	Gregorio Petit, SS
	Graham Godfrey, SP	Robin Rosario, OF	Tommy Everidge, 1B
Clayton Mortensen, SP	Ronny Morla, SP	Wilfredo Solano	Joel Galarraga, C
Nino Leyja, 2B	Paul Smyth	Conner Crumbliss	Pedro Figueroade, SP
Rashun Dixon, CF	Julio Ramos	Daniel Straily
James Simmons, SP	Ian Krol, SP	Yusuf Carter	Ryan Ortiz, SP
Brett Hunter, SP	Anthony Huttenlocker	Carlos Hernandez, SP	Ben Hornbeck, SP
	Reynaldo Mateo	Tyler Ladendorff	Shawn Haviland, SP
Mickey Storey, SP	Chris Mederos	Jon Meloan	Josh Horton, SS
	Conner Hoehn	Corey Wimberly, UTL	Dan Thomas
	Josh Leyland, C	Justin Souza	Andrew Carignan, RP
Jermaine Mitchell, CF	Jared Lansford, RP	Justin Marks	Jason Christian, 3B