Stathead's Dream Team

by Tyler Bleszinski on May 7, 2007 4:27 PM PDT in News

I'm on the phone today talking with someone from Baseball Prospectus and we're talking about the A's. He basically asks me, "So are they really going to be playing Snelling every day?"

My reaction was, "Yeah as long as they continue to remain the on-field version of the patients on House."

We then got to talking about how the A's are suddenly the stathead experiment come to life. Players like Snelling and Cust have long been guys that the statheads have longed to see in Major League uniforms on a consistent basis.

So it's very unfortunate that the team has been depleted significantly, but for those who follow stats, the next few weeks promise to be interesting. Both Snelling and Cust have already contributed to the A's in their brief time here. The real question becomes, how long does this continue to be a stathead paradise? Milton Bradley is supposedly going to return from the DL soon (allegedly). Dan Johnson is holding his own at first base. What happens if Cust proves that he is a Major Leaguer and not the AAAA player many have claimed? And Snelling had some of the best at-bats I've seen any of the A's have this year.

I've got to admit that it's pretty exciting to see Cust and Snelling get their shots. I remember hearing Gammons rave about Cust and Snelling has been a Lookout Landing darling for a while now. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised that Beane had to have his hand forced to give these stathead faves an opportunity. But it does make sense with Barton struggling at Triple-A and two of the other A's main prospects already with the big team (Putnam and Buck). I guess ultimately it leads to a healthy competition amongst the players to get in the lineup. I don't doubt for one second that if the great stat experiment of 2007 works out that both Putnam and Buck could find themselves back in the minors for more seasoning.

It will just be really interesting to see how this shakes out as two long-sought players thought to have a ton of potential will finally get their chance. I can assure you they'll have a great stat-inclined audience watching closely to see if a couple of their projects finally prove that they were right.

My conversation came to a close with this BP person saying, "Hey, maybe they'll sign Billy McMillon next." I simply said, "The A's already did that to not such great results, remember?"

We'll see if this one is any different.

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Interesting indeed

It's entirely possible that the A's could find themselves in the situation of having too many options in the outfield by June 1st. If Kotsay, Bradley, and Swisher are all healthy at the same time, someone is going to lose playing time. Putnam obviously will be sent down at the first opportunity, because he does not belong in the majors at this point. However, that still leaves 8 guys fighting for 5 spots in the lineup: Kotsay, Buck, Swisher, Bradley, DJ, Doyle, Cust, and Stewart. We know Swisher and Bradley are going to play virtually every day when healthy, and based on past history I would expect that Kotsay will play every day when healthy. Thus, you have 5 guys fighting over 2 spots in the lineup. What do you do then? Billy and Bob will have some tough decisions to make if everyone is actually healthy at the same time.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 4:40 PM PDT reply actions

Stewart--------------------->the door!!!!

Doyle is ours and you can't have him.

by mikeA on May 7, 2007 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Totally agree

Snelling and Buck are better both defensively and offensively than Stewart. Unfortunately, I doubt that Billy and Bob will get rid of Stewart, which means that DJ, Buck, or Snelling will get screwed. Cust is probably dead man walking in any scenario unless he puts on a big power display prior to other players returning.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Swisher is better at 1st-Base full-time

.. and that would be a less injury-prone spot to put Swish in as well .. and it makes our infield defense all the better ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on May 7, 2007 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes

yes yes

by sslinger on May 7, 2007 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions

And once Piazza is healthy

the situation gets even more crowded.

by AsFanInLA on May 7, 2007 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

they won't keep Cust if Piazza

is healthy. Of course that could be a while.

by OaklandSi on May 7, 2007 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions

This also brings up

what happens when Kielty is healthy? Trade? I would think he'd have to show he's healthy and can at least hit left-handed pitching before they could get anything for him, or do they release him? I'm not sure if he has options remaining, so a trip to AAA isn't out of the question. I really think Beane isn't done dealing outfielders once (if ever) they get the full compliment of players back.

by IndianaAsfan on May 7, 2007 4:49 PM PDT reply actions

Ouch

I forgot about him. Kielty would appear to be gone, wouldn't he?

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Other Possibility is ..

.. We never have all these guys back healthy at the same time ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on May 7, 2007 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh yeah

Basing any scenario on having Kotsay, Bradley, and Snelling all healthy at the same time is risky. Of course, even if only two of those guys is healthy, Kielty and one other player would really have nowhere to play.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Billy Mac?

Not so great results?

For basically no marginal payroll, we got a fourth outfielder who had a 114 OPS+ in ~65 PAs in in '02 and 119 OPS+ in ~175 PAs in '03. I'd say that worked out pretty well. When the pixie dust wore off in '04, we cut him loose.

Moves like Snelling and Cust and McMillon aren't some new sabermetric stunt, they're the types of moves that have kept this team afloat for the last seven years.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on May 7, 2007 4:53 PM PDT reply actions

Word.

by Philip Christy on May 7, 2007 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I meant as a regular outfielder

Jeez, sal, do you just wait to call me out? ;-)

by Tyler Bleszinski on May 7, 2007 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

No, I don't.

I just don't comment when I agree with you! Sorry if that came out heavy on the snark...

...but Billy Mac was never meant to be a reg'lar outfielder. His usage pattern while he was in Oakland always suggested fourth outfielder, even while T-Long was crapping the bed in LF.

In the same vein, we're not relying on Cust and Snelling to be long-term solutions, but building blocks on the edges of the roster. And they're decent enough that they won't kill you if you have to play them everyday during lean periods.

What would have been the stathead experiment come to life would have been if Billy signed Cust over Piazza and traded for Snelling and handed him the everyday LF job over the offseason.

Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on May 7, 2007 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions

yep

One caveat would be that there is a possibility that Snelling may be a regular for us now. I have my doubts, but we know Billy loves Doyle and Doyle definitely has talent and may make it very difficult to take him out of the lineup not only this year but in future years. Cust is most likely gone sooner rather than later if other players return healthy.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Well

the beauty is not necessarily in whether Beane wanted to intentionally do this or not, but it's happening now and I'm more excited to watch this team now and see if a guy like Cust can come through on a daily basis. How awesome will it be if he can? He'll give hope (possibly false hope) to guys perceived to be AAAA everywhere.

by Tyler Bleszinski on May 7, 2007 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions

And I wasn't saying it was a "stunt"

I was just saying that Beane made opportunity out of all the horrid luck with the injuries and that was to give some stathead-beloved players a chance. They had nothing to lose by doing just so...and the A's, in my memory, have never had to dig so deep so early in the season to be at their creative best. Well, at least with position players...I do remember Beane having to basically buy a starting pitcher from Toronto a couple of seasons ago because of injuries to the pitching staff.

by Tyler Bleszinski on May 7, 2007 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions

nice diary

way i see it:

whoever is out of options gets traded or released

whoever has options gets sent down to the sac

remembering this team will need 5-6 outfielders this season the starting OF should be stewart in left, kots in center and bradley in right with swisher at 1st. i think snelling stays. i'd pick buck over the clown but beane is stubborn with some players and will probably keep the clown and send buck down. cust-down.putnam-down. pizzaman will take longer then expected i think to get back so DJ will DH until then.

"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on May 7, 2007 5:05 PM PDT reply actions

I think you're prediction is right

Buck may very well get sent down, and Snelling will sit on the bench while Stewart plays. I think it's the wrong thing for this team to do, but I think it is what will happen.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions

i assume stewart is your concern

on the defensive side i share your concerns but i think when everything shakes out stewart's offense will make for his defensive shortcomings. stewart will hit by year's end.

buck may very well be the starting rightfielder in '08- bradley will be gone. at 8 million i'd try to trade kotsay. but i like keeping guys in their contract year so he could probably stay. i'd have snelling and kotsay have a 40 yard dash and winner plays CF, loser plays LF in '08. shit, i dunno. either way, an OF of snelling, kotsay and buck won't scare anyone.

"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on May 7, 2007 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions

why?

How good do you expect Stewart to be? I think Stewart is likely to improve on his numbers so far, but it's hard for me to see him putting up anything better than a .750-.775 OPS over the next few months. I think Buck and Snelling will do better than that, so why should Stewart play over those guys? Do you see Stewart as doing better than them offensively? It's possible, but I don't see why anyone would expect it.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Stewart's here on the cheap

If he doesn't pick it up by the time everyone's healthy and the other guys are performing, somehow I doubt Beane would hesitate to dump him. He's not tied into a long term contract or a high value one. He's a low cost risk, that's all. Given the pieces that we have, there's no chance he's going to be here next year either.

Free of Elderberry smell since 12:20PM 4/19/07

by DMOAS on May 7, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I hope you're right

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions

if stewart comes close to .750 -.775

i think the a's would be vey pleased. at a million per he'ii do for '07. buck and snelling haven't proven they can hit for the long term. i'd rather keep snelling and let buck beat the hell out of the ball in the sac until sept call ups or until needed again. plus the wrist issue is a bit of concern for buck.

"Where you start is not as important as where you finish."- Zig Ziglar

by bigelephant on May 7, 2007 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions

not really the point

The question is this, assuming we actually care about this year: will Stewart, Snelling, or Buck give us the most production in LF? I believe that Stewart will be outproduced by Snelling and Buck from this point on, and that is why I would rather those players play instead of Stewart. Do you think otherwise, or just think Stewart should play regardless? Temporarily, it might make a lot of sense to DL Buck for two weeks to let him rest his wrists, but I think Buck will give us a .800-850 OPS from this point on, and I think Snelling would do the same.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

The one thing

I will say for Stewart is that he has a track record whereas Buck and Snelling don't. Now I'm not opposed to dumping him at all, I'd just like to see Snelling and Buck keep it up for another month or so before I'm ready to proclaim them the definite answer. Right now we don't have a choice, though.

by IndianaAsfan on May 7, 2007 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Valid Point

This is what Billy and Bob will say when/if they decide to play Stewart and bench the other guys. My response to the "track record" issue is this: Stewart's "track record" is that he has put up roughly a .700 OPS the last two years, and this year he is below a .700 OPS so far. He is still doing the same thing he has been doing for the last few years at the plate in bailing out with his hips in an attempt to make up for his decreased bat speed. We can look at that "track record," or we can look at his "track record" from a few years ago when he was a very good hitter when he was younger and still had bat speed.

Buck has a "track record" as well. He has hit very well in the minor leagues, and has put up a .788 OPS so far this year, which is over .100 points better than Stewart has produced. Buck has much better bat speed than Stewart, and has consistently (in my opinion) taken good at bats this year even when he has not been successful.

Snelling has a "track record." He has constantly been hurt, and is hard to rely upon to stay healthy. However, he has been a great hitter when healthy in the minors, and has a great approach at the plate.

Stewart has been in the majors for a long time, but I'm not sure how relevant that is at this point in his career. He is three years removed from his last good year, so why does he get the benefit of what he did with a different skill set while we demand that Buck and Snelling prove themselves? I just don't get the whole proven veteran thing as it is applied by managers and fans.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions

I can understand your frustration

with it. One factor is that there are a lot of guys who hit at the minor league level and can't perform at the major league level. Piatt for one. To date, Cust is another (although hopefully he's in the process of proving me wrong). A track record in the minors doesn't always translate into Major League success. And, in fairness on my part, I thing some of it when managers do it, is just a "cover your ass" type of thing. Their feeling is that if a veteran doesn't perform they can always fall back on the "track record" while if a rookie, or otherwise young player, struggles they'll be criticized for playing him. I don't even think it is a conscious decision, kind of like playing by "the book." Even more reason for you to be frustrated I guess.

by IndianaAsfan on May 7, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't even get frustrated anymore

I expect it from every team, and I am pleasantly surprised at the few times a young player is allowed to compete on an even basis with a "proven veteran." We won't be the first team to let a .788 OPS rookie sit on the bench while a .652 OPS veteran usurps his playing time. It would be nice if it was different, but that is just the way baseball works. Geren is no better or worse than the hundreds of major league managers that have done the same thing.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Well

he hasn't done it yet.

Doyle is ours and you can't have him.

by mikeA on May 7, 2007 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Hopefully he won't

On the second day of spring training, though, Geren described Stewart as a "proven veteran" and a "lifetime .300 hitter" who would be an every day for the A's. There was that certainty in Geren's voice when he said it that worried me. I hope Geren does the right thing, but I've been disappointed so many times that I really don't expect much from major league managers.

I'd like to eat my lunch, but Billy just kicked me out of my office.

by BlameChannel53 on May 7, 2007 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions

I doubt Buck goes

wouldn't Buck be a bit too good to send down? He'd probably be a ROY candidate (unless Matsuzaka goes crazy) when all is said and done? I think Stewart and Kielty are gonzo before Buck

Hi, I am closetasfan, and I am a NRAF, and an ANA

by closetasfan on May 7, 2007 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions

God, I hope Cust and Snelling stick

I don't think Cust is an everyday guy at this point, but he would be the most valuable off-the-bench the A's have had since Olmedo Saenz. And Snelling, gosh, he's probably their best hitter outside of Swisher. As long as he stays healthy -- and he makes Milton Bradley look like the Ironman -- he needs to be out there 4-5 games a week. I'd love seeing an outfield of Snelling, Kotsay and Bradley with Swisher at first and Johnson giving getting 2-3 starts a week. I'd also like to see Piazza playing 4-5 days with Cust getting the other two. And while we're at it, why not give Melhuse 2-3 starts a week and benching Kendall from time-to-time. If this means sending Buck and Putnam down, trading/releasing Kielty and Stewart, I'm totally on board.

by FreeSanJose on May 7, 2007 5:26 PM PDT reply actions

Better to have more than you need

Last week Piazza's injury looked devastating to the team, now we get a bonus in the form of getting Swisher's and Cust's bats in the lineup. As much as Piazza look to be heating up before he got hurt, I don't see him putting up the offense production we got from Swish and Cust in the last 3 games.

Thinking ahead to where all of our outfielders are back, assuming Putnam will go back to minors for a while, we have 17 batters, need to trim down to 14

Milton
Swish
Kotsay
Kielty
Buck
Stewart
Snelling
DJ
Ellis
Crosby
Chavey
Super Marco
Kendall
Melhuse
Piazza
Walker
Cust

I'm afraid Melhuse will be sent down again. Milton will vacate some AB's to other fielders once a while due to injury. It may be unfair for A's to send down an OF to keep open a spot for Milton, but that's what they'll probably do. Most likely Buck.

I'd like to see them make Kotsay and Kielty earn their spot in the lineup. I think Kielty can still go down to minors, not sure about Kotsay.

I like to see them keep Cust for a late inning PH role, or use for DH against some tough righties to give Piazza a day off once a while.

The most unfair spot in this competitive landscape is that Crosby seem to be sheltered no matter what happens. Maybe we can use one of our extra OF + Crosby to get someone good at SS, even a prospect may work, we'll just stick Scut in the lineup.

by asfansince1989 on May 7, 2007 5:34 PM PDT reply actions

I'd like to see them make Kendall earn his spot

You don't promise a fat girl doughnuts and don't deliver. ~ Jennifer @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 7, 2007 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions

slusser seems to agree

...either that, or she's getting her story ideas from AN here:

"Backup Adam Melhuse played well Sunday, throwing out a runner and providing a key two-out single that drove in two runs in a two-run victory. Kendall is noted for his high game count -- he's the first major-leaguer to catch 140 games or more in eight seasons -- but if he continues to struggle, it's conceivable that Melhuse might get more time."

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...

"conceivable?" who told her!?

by popcornjames on May 8, 2007 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Ya know, maybe we should have simply

traded for Cust in the beginning of the season instead of signing Piazza?

by Zonis on May 7, 2007 5:47 PM PDT reply actions

Better yet we could have

Traded for Cust then brought in a lefty killer like Craig Wilson or Jonny Gomes to platoon with him.

by pinkfloyd @ Athletics Nation on May 7, 2007 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Piazza -> righthanded power ..

.. on a team that is already too lefty hitting .. granted Piazza has yet to produce but that is why you would want Pizza Man rather than Cust (in preseason) for a replacement to Frank Thomas ..

.. the Athletics may be small-market but they have BIG-heart! ..

by Randy Bell on May 7, 2007 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions

confounding evidence for statheadism run amok

Jason Kendall, starting C

You don't promise a fat girl doughnuts and don't deliver. ~ Jennifer @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 7, 2007 6:04 PM PDT reply actions

I'm driving straight for a strike here, but ...

... I really think that Beane's supposed statheadism is the equivalent of "c************ c***********" [term redacted]: a marketing ploy designed to peel off resistance among a small elite subset in the service of selling a tale of a charismatic leader.

You don't promise a fat girl doughnuts and don't deliver. ~ Jennifer @('.')@

by monkeyball on May 7, 2007 6:13 PM PDT reply actions

Sea beat the Yanks 3-2...

thanks to a horrible call on a throw to second base that was right on the money and in plenty of time. I've never seen a worse blown call ever. Rivera also gave up the game winning HR in the ninth. How many times will we have seen Papelbon, Street and Rivera give up a game tying or winning HR in the span of a week?
As much as like to see the Yanks lose, the Mariners stole this one and now they are back in second place...

With the Oakland A's, the intravenous drip is always half full!

by OaktownRajah on May 7, 2007 7:04 PM PDT reply actions

Man sharks have just folded...

they aren't even trying to win this. How disappointing an end to a great season is this?

With the Oakland A's, the intravenous drip is always half full!

by OaktownRajah on May 7, 2007 7:10 PM PDT reply actions

Not folded.

Beaten by a better team. Wilson was outcoached, and when the Sharks were pressing tonight to keep the crowd in it in the first, the Wings counterpunched and took advantage of the Sharks' over-aggressiveness.

by IndianaAsfan on May 7, 2007 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

Hate to say it but the Wings were consistently better, and Hasek was a wall tonight. Go Warriors!

by sslinger on May 7, 2007 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Bradley gets hurt so often...

I wonder what his trade value is? Maybe he is the one who should be traded.

by IM4Oakgal on May 7, 2007 7:16 PM PDT reply actions

Bradley too much of a headcase

to be of much value

I bet Kotsay would be easier to trade. Perhaps to the Cubs?

Hi, I am closetasfan, and I am a NRAF, and an ANA

by closetasfan on May 7, 2007 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions

They have too many outfielders already.

They're probably going to move Jacque Jones to make room for Murton, Soriano, Pie, and Floyd. I read somewhere that the Angels are interested.

So it goes.

by jeepers on May 7, 2007 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Way too soon to say that.

In many ways, he cleared the head case label last year. He still has time to produce this year.

by sslinger on May 7, 2007 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Similiar situation to Harden's

If Bradley comes back and hits well while staying healthy up until the trading deadline, he could attract a lot of suitors. Of course, a deal involving Bradley is contingent on whether or not the A's are in the playoff race come July 31st. Either way, I doubt that Bradley will stay with the A's beyond this season.

by lenscrafters on May 7, 2007 7:27 PM PDT reply actions