Alternative View of Haren Trade
by brenarlo on Dec 14, 2007 5:40 PM PST
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PrintHere's an angle that no one here has talked about yet. Most people have concluded that Beane saw the injury progress in Az and wasn't confident in what he saw. I'm not saying I think this, but is it possible Beane was so impressed with Harden that he decided it was worth the risk to trade Haren?
If that's the case, then Blanton/Street/Chavez/whoever else may not be traded right now. Harden slips into the number one role and everything else falls into place. That would make us about as good (or bad) as last year.
Again, this isn't necessarily what I believe but it's certainly something thinking about. IF Harden is healthy then perhaps Eveland was acquired as a 5th starter.
I'm leaning towards Beane just trading everyone including Chavez/Swisher/Street/Blanton assuming he can get something useful for them
Investing in the idea that Harden is healthy is a risky investment, but perhaps Beane says "we'll see if Harden can replace Haren and if he can't, we'll trade Blanton and Street in July."
This is possible?
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the thought occurred to me
but I discarded it. Harden always looks and feels good during the winter, even thorough spring training. The A's were encouraged by how good he felt last off season into planning for contention in 2007 with Harden in the rotation.
So no matter how good he looked this past week in Phoenix, I tend to think the A's didn't really consider him at all.
I tend to agree with that..
even though i wrote the diary i'm not sure i believe what i wrote.
i thought about that,
but it doesn't appear to be the case. especially with the new Slusser article.
"There were just too many pieces to have to fit in perfectly to feel we'd have a real successful season if we kept the current group in line," Beane said.
"I don't think we're ever going to concede anything, but it's been a challenge for us the last few years," he said. "It's been a little bit of a shell game, patchwork here and there. ... We need to put together a club for a long, sustained run. This trade is the first step toward that."
beane
"This trade is the first step toward that."
okay, as long as it's only the first step. let's see what else you've got, billy.
first step my a$$
This trade is a first step toward the dumpster. There is a considerable probability that none of the guys in this trade amounts to anything- I mean, seriously, most of these guys were in single A last year. I haven't heard anyone anywhere say that Carlos Gonzalez is even promising- the best anyone will say is that he "has a nice upside." That's great- I probably have a nice upside as a plumber, too, if I give up my career and take on plumbing. Beane is literally betting "the farm" on some guys who are at best many years out, and frankly the future is far too hazy to see anything that clearly other than the completion of the new stadium. That's all that's important now: he's giving up completely on anything substantial, either now or in the near future, in favor of shadowy figures and will o' wisps dancing in the mists of the future. Is this a sound strategy for someone whose financial future is tied to the new stadium? Sure. Is this a sound future for someone who wants to see the team do well? Very questionable.
by BerkeleyDawg on Dec 14, 2007 7:52 PM PST up reply actions
From minor league blog:
If the A's ran their draft better they'd have guys like Cunningham, Smith and Carter and wouldn't have to deal a hot property for them. They weren't early picks.
by McLovin on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 06:32:40 PM CDT
by A s Eh on Dec 14, 2007 8:46 PM PST up reply actions
Thats beyond ridiculous...
Everyone has late picks that bloom, that doesn't mean anything. Anyone could have had Harden, what was he, a 16th rounder? Putting his health issues aside, does that mean anyone who would trade for him was stupid for not just drafting him instead? Of course not, the draft is very hard to figure and always will be.
That is one of the more asinine comments i've read today, and I've read a lot of em!
WOW
oh, i see it's from "mclovin"
OK
Carlos Gonzalez is extremely promising. If the light clicks on he'll be huge. He's 21 and has some maturity issues, he hasn't really taken a professional approach to his job. If he never does he's doomed.
But if he does grow up, he'll be huge.
And if Anderson stays healthy he'll be very good in a couple years.
The rest... TBD.
if... if... if... if...
by BerkeleyDawg on Dec 14, 2007 11:24 PM PST up reply actions
The best we could do?
In terms of near term impact? No.
But Beane was going for long term development. He insulated himself as much as possible while acquiring guys with good upside.
"insulated"
I guess it's true that if you've got huge walls of garbage piled around you that in some sense you're "insulated," but to most of us you just smell bad. As was pointed out in another diary, there's just too much that can happen between single A where these guys looked sharp and any kind of major league action. I feel like I've been slapped in the face.
by BerkeleyDawg on Dec 15, 2007 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
That is why you get 6 players.
Unless you are getting some one already proven in the majors there it is always a roll of the dice as to who will pan out. If Beane did his scouting right maybe we are looking at 50/50 and 3 of these guys are going to be on the team as everyday players in a couple years. If the A's really get lucky 4 out 6 would be great. If we are unlucky 2 out of 6.
Pretty much look at the Mulder/Hudson trades they were not as valuable because of their shorter contract terms. But, basically 6 players 3 look to have panned out and maybe Dan Meyer will pull it together.
I would like to see the same from these 6.
Haren Trade Sucks
This trade is no good for the A's. We gave up the sure thing for "maybe these guys could be okay for you in the future"? Please.
Carlos Gonzalez, we all preety much know this guy. Supposed to be a very good OFer one day. Spent most of last year in AA and just moved to AAA ball. Played in the futures game in 2006 and 2007. This looks to be the big catch.
Brett Anderson, should be in AA this year. Had a nice 9+ Ks per 9 innings. The guy is young and left handed.
Chris Carter, just acquired by Arz in a trade with ChicW for Carlos Quinton. Big guy, seems to have solid power, but he strikes out a bunch. He could curb that K rate but sorta scary to see.
Aaron Cunningham, nothign exciting about this guy that I can see.
Dana Eveland, this guy has had some PT up in the show. Last year he threw 5 innings and gave up 8 ers. Ya I know small sample size. His AA and AAA look nice, but he had an injury in 07, torn tendon in pitching hand.
Greg Smith, already 24 years old, nothing stands out about this guy either.
and Repeat
regarding the team conclave in Phoenix
Slusser reports that Chad Gaudin may need hip labrum surgery
one more we didn't know about...
another note on Haren
it's funny to me, but, before the trade, AN seemed to largely regard Haren as an ace, a true #1 starter. then, right after the deal, i see some saying that Haren's not a #1 starter, but just a very good #2.
which is it?
Ace
top 5 most valuable pitchers in the game.
That
might be a bit of a stretch, but I'd feel comfortable saying top 15. And though I've always thought that the long debates about who is/isn't a "true #1" are pretty much a waste of time, that certainly qualifies in my book.
Top ten in xFIP 3 straight 200+ innings years
There are other pitcher who are better, but not better, healthier, and more durable.
let's compromise on top 10
X-ace of the A's
...but Beane got some much needed LF & 1B help, and potential relief pitching that may be as good as Robertson some day!
by A s Eh on Dec 14, 2007 8:54 PM PST up reply actions
Relief pitching?
The guys in this trade all profile as starters, which is good, because the last thing on the planet Oakland needs is lefty relief prospects.
(Side note: Has any team ever projected to be this lefty-heavy before? Oakland looks like it could have 6 lefty pitchers, 7 lefty hitters in the starting lineup if you include the left-throwing Swisher, and another lefty bat on the bench. Downright weird. Maybe it's the next "new Moneyball": Leftyball.)
I can do my usual boo-hiss routine about lefty starters here, but the bottom line is that their production looks between average (Smith) and excellent (Anderson), and ultimately that's what's important.
what's your usual boo-hiss rouine
People overrate them
Lefties with equivalent pitching ability will produce worse stats than righties, because they're going against the platoon differential most of the time. And yet somehow people see a lefty with an 86 MPH fastball and think "finesse," and then they see a righty with an 86 MPH fastball and think "crap."
he's a #1 in my book
He was, is and will remain ...
a very good pitcher -- more of what most of us would think of as a #2, but certainly among the 30 best pitchers in baseball -- which seems like a logical definition of a #1 -- by the more typically agreed upon definitions, there aren't more than a half dozen or so #1s in the league. He's not as good as his early 2007 suggested. I expect several mid to high 3 era seasons over 220 innings each of the next few years.
There were plenty of people that were calling him a #2 before the trade.
Why Haren and not Blanton
Can someone explain...why Haren...he was cheap, healthy, and tied to the team for three more years.
What was the rush to get rid of him?
Could it be that the A's are trading him "high" because they think his second half fall off was more indicative of his talent than his first half success?
by hoke on Dec 14, 2007 6:03 PM PST reply actions
I think it's because they were offered more
for Haren, not because there's anything wrong with Haren.
And Blanton (and others) may go soon as well.
That's my thought.
There's no real point, especially with the value of pitchers, to holding on to guys like Blanton and Street if there's a good offer on the table.
But if we're rebuilding, for the love of all things baseball holy, get rid of Chavez. Franchise players are not needed in the state of the A's for the next two seasons. If they want to hang on to a "franchise face", look to someone who might actually be useful for our '09-'10 run, like Swish. Or hell, Buck at this point will be a vet by then. :-/
"No. It's Oakland."
A's are really dumping on Oakland
Take the 3rd deck tarp down and put it over the playing field.
by A s Eh on Dec 14, 2007 8:57 PM PST up reply actions
wait a few days
Re: Second half performance
His second half looked a lot more like his career stats than his first half did...
So I would say, "yes".
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Dec 14, 2007 6:31 PM PST up reply actions
His second half looked like bizarrely bad luck
given that cool .355 BABIP opposing batters had against him.
Sorry, guys. There's no short-term silver lining here. The 2008 A's just got 4-6 wins worse.
Almost as unlucky as his...
by Travis Buck Nuckin on Dec 14, 2007 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
The first half was a fluke
so was the 2nd half, especially the last month.
His BABIP is Spet was 407. There is no freaking way that that is his "true talent" level.
His peripherals in Sept were still damn good: 35 ks, 8 BBs, in 37 IP.
In fact, his K and BB rates were better in August and September than the rest of the year.
You're reading too much into some bad luck with balls in play.
If you want to be specific
it was exactly as unlucky as his first half was lucky. His overall season BABIP was within a couple thousandths of league-average.
I think the difference between Haren's stats
is largely attributable to the defensive players in the second half of the year:
RF from Swisher to Cust
SS from Crosby to Murphy/Scutaro
3b from Chavez to Hannahan
CF from Kotsay to Swisher, et al
C from Kendall to Suzuki
by connie mack on Dec 14, 2007 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
The difference
between a historically good defensive team and a historically bad one is like 50 points of BABIP. Over 50% of that variation was luck.
100% Kendall
Kendall called a great game and all the pitchers--especially Harren liked throwing to him.
Suzuki was essentially making the jump from AA and looked lost trying to find a huge number of passed balls. Suzuki is a good prospect--but it was a huge drop in catching talent.
Agreed, but I think he will improve noticably
this year and next.
I don't think he should be catching 90% of the games though.
by A s Eh on Dec 15, 2007 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
Rebuild? maybe not
Haren's value was never going to be any higher than it is now, I think Beane was smart to move him and get the prospects he did. We all thought the world was going to end in 04 with the Huddy/Mulder deals but 2 years later we were in the ALCS. I think we could add a FA bat (Bonds still??? ughhh) and maybe do a 1 year deal with an SP like Colon and still have the pieces to at least compete for the wildcard. The bullpen is solid and it seems unlikely we could have as many injuries to position layers as we did last season. Meanwhile our farm system is flush with good talent for the next few years. I loved Haren but i think this was a smart move.
You call this value?
If Haren's at his peak value right now, why didn't we get anything for him? Seems like people are saying no more than that two or three of these guys might be good enough to reach the majors in two or three years.
Why not wait until Santana's traded, or until the Yanks come knocking about next year? That's when Haren's value really climbs. Instead Beane decides to ignore our serious needs at short or CF; he passes on all the other decent prospects he's been offered. At least, he passed on all that he's reportedly been offered; rumors which, I concede, could be as ephemeral as the talent of these vapid souls he just tossed our MVP out for.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but right now the landscape looks bleaker than the post-apocalyptic set of the new Will Smith movie....
by BerkeleyDawg on Dec 14, 2007 8:01 PM PST up reply actions
Dude, do your homework!
Gonzalez and Anderson are very promising - you (I) just haven't heard of them because they're so young. That doesn't mean they won't be great. AAA guys are not only closer to the major leagues than 19-20 year olds, they're also usually more name-recognizable. That doesn't mean they're going to have as good a career. Frankly, I hadn't heard of Jerry Blevins when we got him - now I'm really excited that we have him.
Expecting Harden to be a factor is expecting
disappointment, he normally starts out looking good before having something happen. :-/
"No. It's Oakland."
I think without Gaudin,
we were in trouble with or without Haren. Yes, a 1-3 of Haren, Harden, and Blanton would be awesome, but the back end of the rotation would be iffy, the offense only average, and once Harden went down it would all fall apart anyway.
Seattle, LAAOLAIA, and stRangers are loving this
If Beane was diligent these drastic over reactions would not be so frequent.
Triple A's here we come. Where is "Page the Rage" when you need him?
by A s Eh on Dec 14, 2007 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
How so?
What due diligence should Beane have taken to get around this?
And where are the frequent over-reactions? This trade.. and...? I'm assuming you are talking about the Mulder/Hudson deals, cause I can't think of anything else even closely relating. And while you could argue the merits of the deals respectively, I think you'd be very hard pressed to say the A's weren't better off doing those two deals then holding on to them both.
Let's see what we have going with Blanton/Street/Ellis before we get all over ourselves here.
To answer the question posed by the diarist
No, it isn't possible:
The A's have been planning to move Duchscherer into the starting rotation next spring, so even with Haren in the mix, they'd have entered Spring Training with three-fifths of their rotation very much uncertain.
"The direction was somewhat determined by health," Beane said. "Gaudin may need surgery that could eat into Spring Training, and for a starting pitcher, that's critical. We're still dealing with issues with Rich at this point; he doesn't seem to be fully over what prevented him from pitching last year. Duke is a major part of the team, and he's doing well, but to rely on a guy having major hip surgery and assume some things probably wasn't a great idea. And I think we have to be realistic about when Eric's going to be at full strength.
"I struggled with this. It's not easy making decisions like this, so you wait as long as you possibly can. But once we got to this point, we all kind of looked at each other and said, 'You know what, we're placing too much hope into this equation.'"
Slusser also noted in her article that Harden just had a cortisone shot to deal with biceps tendonitis. Harden claims is no big deal, and something he could pitch through. Harden did not provide any information about what makes this injury different from the other six thousand muscle injuries he hasn't been able to pitch through.
So, Harden still has the same glass body, and his health had nothing to do with trading Haren--at least in a positive way.
Biceps tendinitis
no big deal?
For a pitcher, especially a pitcher like Harden who already has had shoulder issues, it is scarier than just a routine muscle injury: it's a shoulder problem.
I think it is great
I love to see a team re-build, and see where it goes. I don't expect instant success but I think it will be interesting and entertaining. I was shocked that he traded Haren, and since he did, no question Blanton is gone, and if Harden comes back he will be gone also, looks like we will see a lot of young pitchers get thrown in next year, should be fun.
by china bob on Dec 15, 2007 10:01 AM PST reply actions
This must be some interesting new definition
of "fun" that I was not previously aware of.
Wince-inducing 6-run rallies by the opposition are not generally what I think of as fun.
I agree with China Bob
I don't have to win 90+ games every single year to remain a fan.
In fact, I enjoy watching the process of a team that successfully rebuilds. To me, watching young players mature, and learn how to win and be successful might even be more fun then the large amounts of winning that follows it.
As I've mentioned elsewhere, my most enjoyable season as an A's fan (for me that goes back to 1979) was the 1999 season. You could just sense and feel that was a team on the rise, a team that began to gel and believe in itself.
Keep in mind that wasn't even a playoff team.
The '99 club begat the 100+ win teams and the league MVP's, but even that wasn't quite as satisfying for me as the earlier club that started it all.
But then, I grew up playing team sports, so maybe I just have a different point of view then most.
Odd as it may sound...yes
I did enjoy the '79 club. If for no other reason then the fact that you could relax, stretch out, spend time talking to the vendors, get autographs if you wanted them with no hassle.
Of course, when you're one of 862 total fans in the stands, all those things come pretty easily. ;)
And strange as it may seem, there were a few pieces in place on the '79 club (Norris, Keough, McCatty, Rickey, Murphy, Armas) that ended up becoming a playoff team in '81.
Yes, the '99 club was competitive and fun to watch. But they didn't have to win for me to enjoy it. The 74-win 1998 club is was when the rebuilding really began in earnest. That's pretty much what I expect from the 08 club, and really look forward to 09, as it stands a chance (depending on the direction of future moves) of being the mirror image of the '99 club.
This year will be painful, and nobody likes watching young kids learn how to hold onto wins (you have to fail before you succeed) but it likely signifies better times ahead.
The years I didn't enjoy....
Were 82-85, and 93-97. For both of those stretches, the team was bad AND there was no rebuilding plan in place AND there was no one in the front office who was capable of (82-85) or interested in (93-97) building a winner.
Kind of like what KC and Pittsburgh have suffered through over the last 15 years or so.
'82-85 was very hard to take after 1981
and billyball consumed our starters.
Still, taking the family out to the game was great whatever the year.
by A s Eh on Dec 15, 2007 9:22 PM PST up reply actions
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