A's Prospects

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 23, 2007 9:36 AM PDT

Here are some guys to keep an eye on for next year. It includes some of the well known prospects along with some of the lesser knowns. I'm basing this exercise purely on glancing at stats of the past few seasons (mainly walks/k for hitters and k's, walks, and whip for pitchers) and age. So without further ado:

Hitters:

Jermaine Mitchell
Cliff Pennington

Pitchers

Jason Fernandez
Trevor Cahill
Derrick Gordon
Andrew Baily
Travis Banwart
Brandon Dewing
Nick Walters
Kevin Deaton

Hitters:

Landon Powell
Eddie Cornejo
Casey Myers
Danny Putnam

Pitchers:

Danny Borrell
Bob Cramer
James Simmons
Brad Zielger
Jerry Blevins
Dallas Braden
Jeff Gray

AAA

Hitters:

Jeremy Brown
Jorge Piedra
Chris Snelling
Denorfia

Pitchers:

Mike Madsen
Colby Lewis

So I did this exercise without a true scientific method. However, some things did pop out at me. First of all, we have little hitting in the low minors. This is probably partly because of all the callups to the majors, the organization starts to get stretched thin. However, this is slightly worrisome, so hopefully Beane will be drafting plenty of hitters in the upcoming draft. Also, there are some decent pitching prospects, but none that really jump out at you and say whoa nelly! Unfortunately, I don't think we have any true superstars in the minors (Barton is excluded for this exercise because we all know he's gonna be a stud). I know that players can come out of nowhere or surprise, but there is no one to really look forward to other than a handful of pitchers (Powell might be the best hitter, but he plays at a position that is already filled by another young player in the majors). Hopefully, we're not going to have to call up to many guys from the minors this year, because that might become and issue. I don't know how long Beane can keep coming up with guys out of the clear blue that work out. How many more Jack Cust's can be in the minors? Anyway, at least we have a lower draft position this year, and hopefully Beane will mastermind another good draft and get the next Swisher.

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Comments

I thought...

the draft was in June.

by buddahead9 on Oct 23, 2007 9:33 AM PDT reply actions

It is

but draft position is determined by results from this regular season, so draft places are already locked in. And unlike the NBA, there's no lottery.

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions

alrighty. the upcoming draft thing threw me

for a loop

by buddahead9 on Oct 23, 2007 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

The hitter situation is perhaps a bit less dire

in the long-term with Daniel Hamblin and Corey Brown in Low-A (and Greg Desme, who's a scouts' favorite, missed almost all of the pro season with an injury). But neither of them will play with the big-league team next season, of that we can be almost sure.

Jeff Baisley had a great 2006 and stumbled a bit after a two-level promotion in 2007, but he's doing well in AZ. And Gregorio Petit is a legit prospect at this point (no longer just a "project hitter" with a good glove). If he can find a way to translate his current stats in AAA to the major league level, much less improve upon them, he'll be an above-average shortstop.

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2007 10:14 AM PDT reply actions

Pruitt

Also don't count JD Pruitt out. The guy had 2 good months and one really bad one for Vancouver that dragged down his stats. He was one of the best OBP guys in the A's system, and he did it in an extreme pitcher's park (Which makes JD's, Brown's, and Hamblin's numbers even more impressive).

by Threepwood XX on Oct 25, 2007 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions

As Hollywood Oz will probably chime in on, Pruitt

was HBP a league record amount of times, that is why he was so high in OBP.

by theblackpearl on Oct 25, 2007 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions

As brave a guy as Pruitt is,

I just can't see that working at the big-league level. People are going to start throwing at his head for real if they think he's deliberately hovering over the strike zone.

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2007 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

HBP

Even discounting the HBP, the guy has a great eye.

As for pitches being thrown at his head, do you honestly think it hasn't happened already? He obviously knows how to handle himself while being thrown at, so if he wants to take a hockey players mentality to the batters box so be it. As he progresses as a hitter and trusts his bat more I think you'll naturally see him be hit less and hit the ball more. Hell, the largest amount of his HBP's were in the first month so you are already seeing it happen.

There is nothing wrong with him patterning himself after someone like Jason Kendall and force the other pitcher to pitch in the zone in a tight situation because the pitcher knows the batter will stand his ground in the batters box.

He's still a prospect, and as with all Baseball prospects no matter how heralded you are(Just ask Billy Beane), the odds are against him to pan out. But. he's defenitly someone to keep an eye on.

by Threepwood XX on Oct 25, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

been a long time

since we've done a full rating on the minor league system. And I don't have the time right now to jump into too much depth either.

Paul Thomas is right that the initial take on the 2007 draft is promising. Josh Horton is another hitter from that draft who looks promising.

The Midwest league this year played as an extreme pitcher's league, so Mitchell and Horton in particular did better than their raw numbers look at first glance. (Jermaine Mitchell for instance was tenth or so in OPS, third in OBP, out of a 16 team league). OTOH, our pitchers in that league (Fernandez, Rodriguez, Cahill, Banwart) have numbers which probably have to be taken with a big pile of salt.

by jakarta on Oct 23, 2007 11:27 AM PDT reply actions

I agree

It all comes back to strikeouts for me. With the wildly varying quality of minor league defense and size of ballparks, it's awfully hard to evaluate ERA. Vince Mazzaro had an ERA over 5-- but he played in the grotesquely hitter-friendly CA league and still got his share of K's (and groundballs). Given his age (20), he's still on the right track.

K/IP, K/AB, K/BB are the key numbers for your generic minor league pitcher. This is why I think Andrew Bailey is the best immediate-impact pitcher in the A's system-- he had a huge number of strikeouts at low-A but kept most of them even in the CA league.

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

agree

Mazzaro has very good stuff. He is working on his consistency-- not overthrowing his fastball to make it too straight. He is on track..Bailey is on track too.

by jakarta on Oct 23, 2007 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks

Thanks for the info, I haven't had time in the past year to be more than just a "major league" fan for the A's, so I haven't been in touch with the A's minor league system. I'm just tryin' to catch up on whats goin' on. Hopefully the A's wise up and bring Adam Piatt back, that guy was a badass...lol

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 23, 2007 11:52 AM PDT reply actions

seems to me

that we lack many minor league ready prospects

Signatures? We don't need no stinking signatures.

by jubjub on Oct 23, 2007 12:41 PM PDT reply actions

Travor Cahill is supposed to be the real thing

by Zonis on Oct 23, 2007 2:51 PM PDT reply actions

Not to nitpick...

..but there's no eventuality in this world where Casey Myers is a shot at playing in the majors next season. Not unless he gets Ebola and loses Landon Powell weight.

Also, speaking of Powell, he won't play next year, at least not for any great part of it, due to blowing out his knee again.

Which leads us to who is left:

If pressed to call the ones who'll make it to the bigs next year, this is how I'd go:

1 & 2. Snelling and Denorfia. Duh. If they're healthy, they're in the 25. No shocks there.

Ziegler, and not just because he comes here. Jay Marshall was supposed to be our subby, but with him gone, and with Ziegs making big strides, there's no reason not to give him an extended shot.

Madsen. Whenever he gets promoted, he sucks for six months. But the following season he not only sticks at that level, but excels and gets another promotion. Happened at every level. So with that in mind, next season he blitzes AAA, gets a promotion, and blows. One for 2009.

Jeremy Brown. It just makes sense that he backs Suzuki up. Who else is going to do it?

Blevins. Stuff. Period.

Blasi. Not for long, but for long enough to see.

(If he's still in the system) Robnett. Pure Hulkasizing power. And we're short that.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2007 1:06 AM PDT reply actions

Re: #5

What about Rob Bowen?

"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe

by EastCoastA on Oct 24, 2007 5:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Uh huh.

What about Tyler Houston?

Would have about the same long term prospects.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions

If he puts up Tyler Houston's batting numbers

at the backup catcher spot, he'd be totally adequate for the position. And if anything, he's likely to exceed them. Excepting three really horrible short-term stints, he's hit .260 with an OPS+ of over 100.

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Three things:

1. Tyler Houston never took more than 290 ABS in a season - ever - so his stats are all over the shop.

2. His stats are pretty darn weak.

3. He retired four years ago.

Which was all kinda my point.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Then I don't understand what your point is

It seems to me to be "I hate Rob Bowen in spite of evidence to the contrary, and am thus comparing him to an irrelevant retired utility player who's ten years older than he is."

I'm not saying Bowen is the next Yogi Berra or something, but the guy can hit some, he's a switch-hitter, and he's decent on defense. What exactly do you have against him?

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2007 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Upside.

Or lack thereof.

Brown is a guy we drafted high for a reason, and he's not let anyone down in AAA, and in fact has been a club captain there despite being assed around and overlooked for ML promotions.

Bowen is a Melhuse, who will never be more than a stopgap guy, might occasionally doink one, but will have no accruing value going forward.

IMO.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

imo

They both deserve a long look this spring to fill the backup catcher role.

I think your characterization of Bowen as a player in the Melhusian mold is a bit off. He's younger than Brown by a year and a half and still ahead of him on the development curve. The difference in their minor league statistics can be explained by the fact that Bowen was promoted very aggressively, even when he didn't succeed.

In fact, Bowen's last season at AAA is eerily similar to Brown's 2006 season in Sacramento.

Bowen- OPS 767 in 262 ABs

Brown- OPS 763 in 275 ABs

I would agree that Brown's got a little more power upside, but I think A's scouts like Bowen's polished approach at the plate.

I find your lack of Faith disturbing...

by rebus on Oct 24, 2007 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I can dig that.

Well said.

We should play Jack Cust at shortstop for a week, just so we can feel good about Crosby again.

by Ozzz on Oct 24, 2007 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Minor League Stats

Look at Brown v. Bowen in the minor Leauges. Bowen's minor league obp is .324 (his major league is .323) and Brown's obp is .370. Also, they both have similar pop, so that isn't an issue. Brown can play 3b, and browns BA in the minors (i know its not a great statistic to use) is almost .270 whereas bowen's is .238. I think that the A's should give Brown the time to play and see what they have first, because they already kind of know what they have in Bowen since he's played in the major leagues a decent amount so far. Anyway, just my take.

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 25, 2007 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Brown at 3b ...

there's a reason that he played a lot of 1b/3b/dh in Sac ... and it's not because he has the kind of future with the bat that they want to protect his knees.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 25, 2007 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions

sorry

I wrote the title for some other entry i was going to do, but then I changed it but forgot to change the title. Anyways, thanks for the input, I definitely concur.

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 24, 2007 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Melillo,

at least, will get a look next season. The A's need to figure out whether he's a late bloomer like Ellis, or just a replacement player.

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2007 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Recker

What about Anthony Recker, kid put up huge number in Stockton, and struggled a bit in Midland, but hes huge and has what it takes, or so i think

by AsBeTheWay on Oct 24, 2007 5:35 AM PDT reply actions

I'm a huge fan of Recker's

The guy has a great bat, but after being promoted to AA he never got back in a groove. His defense also needs a lot of work, and both first base and catcher are impacted, so if he is going to make it to the team the A's might have to do something drastic and move him to the outfield.

by Threepwood XX on Oct 25, 2007 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions

He's definitely someone to keep in mind...

but he needs to work on his k/bb ratio if he wants to succeed at higher levels

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 24, 2007 6:25 AM PDT reply actions

A's prospect's winter stats

Can you guys recommend a site which gives A's prospect's stats for winter baseball - Arizona & Hawaii & maybe boxscores

by sinned @ Athletics Nation on Oct 24, 2007 8:03 AM PDT reply actions

www.milb.com

Arizona Fall League

You can find A's Farmhands on the Phoenix Desert Dogs.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 25, 2007 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions

I just found one yesterday

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/winter...

A's players in Hawaii play for Waikiki.

by ozzman99 on Oct 26, 2007 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Pennington

I think Pennington should no longer be considered a prospect. The guy has been average at best for the last 2 years, and he's struggled in the Arizona Fall League to the tune of .091/.250/.136/.386.

It's time to face facts. Beane drafted him for his OBP skills and defense, in hopes he would develop power later on. Not only has the power not come, but his bat and defense have been back-up quality at best but mostly horrid. Until he proves otherwise, he's nothing more then organizational filler at this point.

by Threepwood XX on Oct 25, 2007 12:20 AM PDT reply actions

I'd give Pennington one FULL year at AA to see

what he can do. He was drafted in 05, missed most of the 06 season, and was, IMO, rushed to AA, he probably should have spent the whole season in Stockton, but with middle infielder attrition up the ladder, they moved him, and kept him in Midland. He has played only around 200 minor league games. This is the most important year for him, as I see it.

by theblackpearl on Oct 25, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions

His numbers in Stockton ...

were solid for that point in his development. His k-rate was a bit high, but he did manage to lower it upon his promotion to Midland.

He's not likely to be a star, but he could definitely still develop into a solid major leaguer.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 25, 2007 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions

henry rodriguez

I saw Henry Rodriguez pitch a game this year at Kane County and he looked pretty good. Can someone with more knowledge about pitching prospects post an opinion on him?

by colin on Oct 25, 2007 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

My understanding of him

is that he's a raw arm with an exceptional fastball velocity. I don't know about what sorts of other pitches he has. If he can develop a breaking pitch, he could be as effective as Zumaya, if not more so. He lowered his walk rate a lot this season, which is a very good sign.

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2007 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions

He still

needs to gain more control though...I'd say right now he looks more like Santiago Casilla/Jairo Garcia than Joel Zumaya at this point...but he's very young and definitely will improve

by maffew @ Athletics Nation on Oct 25, 2007 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks

My recollection (from watching one start) is that he got a ton of strikeouts. His fastball, in particular, got lots of swinging strikes. But then he tried to barehand a ground ball and stayed in the game just long enough to throw like 5 wild pitches.

by colin on Oct 25, 2007 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions