Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: So Let's Talk About Hulk Too, I Suppose

Neyer stands corrected!

Woo hoo!

All has been restored in the world!

Update [2006-8-17 18:0:4 by baseballgirl]: From today's chat:

Ray (San Francisco): Okay Rob, now that I've booked Texas into the playoffs, per your instructions, lets be realistic: The A's are going to win the West. It's pretty clear, run-differentials be damned. I like stats as much as the next guy, but in this instance I don't think RD tells the whole story. Agree?


Rob Neyer: (1:12 PM ET ) Of course it's true that run differentials don't tell the whole story, particularly regarding the final standings. Obviously I must have been in some sort of drug-induced haze Tuesday -- prescription drugs, I swear! -- when I said the Rangers were going to be in the playoffs. Because at this point the A's are close to being a lock in the West, and the Rangers aren't winning the Water Closet.

After I posted yesterday's column on the AL West breakdown, I wrote an email to Rob Neyer asking about his pick of Texas for the AL West, mostly because I just couldn't believe that he, of all the ESPN people, could get behind that pick.

From me:

You're probably our favorite columnist; you know the game of baseball, and in a world with Joe Morgan and John Kruk at the helm, you're the voice of reason through the insanity.

That being said[...]during your chat, you picked the Texas Rangers to win the West. Now, I'm obviously an A's fan, so I can't commit to a winner just yet, but it seems to me that Texas is going to finish third in the West, leaving the Angels and the A's to battle it out for the playoff spot (or leaving the Angels to fade away into the night, letting the A's have the West uncontested).

You probably looked at the A's run-differential and said what all of us do every day: How in the HECK do the A's have the record they do with THAT RD? (Pssst...the answer is 'The Seattle Mariners'.)

Believe me; not an hour goes by when someone doesn't pull up the numbers and try to reconcile the A's record. We know how it works; we know that the A's shouldn't be where they are, but the fact remains that they have a 5.5 game lead on the Angels, and a 6.5 game lead on the Rangers, with 43 to play. They have a less-than-good offense, but they have the pitching (especially bullpen), and the defense, and somehow they are winning the games, even when they're not supposed to (see: two huge game-changing homeruns for just about their only hit in the each game this week).

[...]I've seen or heard 119 A's games this year, and probably 50 or so Angels games (I live in LA), and I follow Texas and Seattle whenever possible, so I have a pretty good idea of the West this year, and I will be the first one to say that the numbers don't back this one up, but here we are anyway.

[...]I enjoy you on ESPN...keep up the good work[...]

His response:

Yeah, you're right. Not sure what possessed me to say that, aside from my inherent iconoclasm.

Anyway, I corrected myself today; the A's are going to win. -rob

p.s. Thanks for the kind words; much appreciated -r

Yep, I knew I loved Rob Neyer. So there you have it.

<goes back to nervously looking at the standings>

Good grief; the A's just better win every game from her on out, because I think my fragile state does not need a down-to-the-wire playoff race this year.

Comment 39 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I have a crush on Neyer.
I don't care what anyone else thinks.
"I almost landed in some lady's lap, which was kinda fun.'' -- Swish

by Sharon on Aug 17, 2006 2:56 PM PDT reply actions  

No!
What about your boyfriend?
Stat Wonk Futurist

by salb918 on Aug 17, 2006 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's just a harmless crush!
I still love Jack Wilson. <sigh>
"I almost landed in some lady's lap, which was kinda fun.'' -- Swish

by Sharon on Aug 17, 2006 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love...
Jackie Wilson, baby!
"the reason why hitting the ball on the "sweet spot" of the bat feels so good is that the ball is contacting at the bat at a vibrational node." - salb918

by McFood on Aug 17, 2006 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, whadya know
So you can write to a sports columnist/analyst without calling him or her an idiot, douchebag or butt-licker. Who knew?

Good job, bbg!

A's 2006 record when I attend: 8-7

by peanut gallery on Aug 17, 2006 3:06 PM PDT reply actions  

The [...]s
But you don't know what was in the [...]s! : )

by Larry E on Aug 17, 2006 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Missed that
Well, that bursts my bubble. Back to colorful metaphors when addressing the press. ;o)
A's 2006 record when I attend: 8-7

by peanut gallery on Aug 17, 2006 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

No no no no...
...it was nothing bad; I love Rob Neyer! I erased the boring parts of the email!
"Why won't everyone do what I want???" ~SportySpice

by baseballgirl on Aug 17, 2006 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know you were nothing but class, bbg
Just having fun with it.
A's 2006 record when I attend: 8-7

by peanut gallery on Aug 17, 2006 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

3 things
  1. Neyer is a good guy. I've emailed him four or five times over the course of the past year, and he's always responded thoughtfully (to both criticisms and compliments). I wish ESPN would give him a test run on Baseball Tonight - with Gammons on the DL, it would be nice to see a reasonable counterpoint to Kruk's bluster once in awhile.
  2. Anyone who offhandedly employs the phrase "inherent iconoclasm" is okay by me.
  3. 119 games? Which one did you miss?

by MKX on Aug 17, 2006 3:15 PM PDT reply actions  

The email's a couple days old
"Why won't everyone do what I want???" ~SportySpice

by baseballgirl on Aug 17, 2006 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't worry
Good grief; the A's just better win every game from her on out, because I think my fragile state does not need a down-to-the-wire playoff race this year.

Actually, the A's only need to win 36 to clinch the AL West.  I'm sure we can keep up our current 9-1 pace for the final six weeks of the season.

Or as Rob Neyer would say, "Book it."

by LoveDemAs on Aug 17, 2006 3:25 PM PDT reply actions  

I was going to post this as a diary...
... but I don't have the time/energy to thoughtfully write it up right now.

Is the use of run differential is a good predictor of a team's success based on the RD over a 162 game season? If so, I would assume that it is less accurate when applied over fewer games.

Additionally, I'd assume that it would have a tendency to even out over the course of the year. When Neyer wrote his initial prediction, the A's RD was 4-5 runs. Now it is 18 (LAAAAAAAAAA is now at 11!). With four games against KC this weekend, it could easily be 30 on Monday (keep yer fingers crossed!). Within a week, the RD starts looking more palatable.

I think Neyer made the mistake of taking a stat that is based on performance over the course of a full season and applying it to a situation that involved an incomplete season.

by RickeySteals on Aug 17, 2006 3:26 PM PDT reply actions  

It does have predictive value.
If you have a 0 run differential, you are likely to be close to .500 for the rest of the year.

Or to put it a different way, given two teams with different run differentials, the team with the better differential will likely win more of the remaining games.

You will note, howerver, than almost all the teams in first place are playing better than their differential would suggets.  (All but LAN)

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tht-daily-all-star-pitchers-win-again/

by MobiusKlein on Aug 17, 2006 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I knew I had read something about this before
That was a great examination of the issue. So, what you're saying is that the run differential at 120 games isn't nearly as useful as the RD at 162 games. Not being of the statistical bent, I'm not sure how big of a difference it is, but eyeballing your chart, it seems pretty significant.

One of your last paragraphs states that "we have some evidence that leveraging relievers is one way to outperform your Pythagorean projection" - my off the cuff reaction was to think that this almost certainly applies to the A's. I think, if you combine this with the blowout factor mentioned below and a good bit of random chance, it is pretty easy to accept the fact that the A's have their current record despite their differential.

So, it looks like Neyer's reliance on the pythagorean projection based on run differential was bitten in the ass by a confluence of exceptions to the rule. Interesting...

by RickeySteals on Aug 18, 2006 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

BBG
Baseballgirl, righter (writer?) of all wrongs!

Great job BBG.

PS Now can you assure me that EI will show the first game of the DH tomorrow?  I keep checking my digital TV guide and it isn't there yet.

by Larry E on Aug 17, 2006 3:27 PM PDT reply actions  

righter of wrongs...
yeah you should have seen her beat down Urban live on the radio back in the day. That was an all-time AN highlight for me.

by Apricot on Aug 17, 2006 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

ditto that
That was awesome. She took him down hard core. Good times.

by whiteshoes40 on Aug 17, 2006 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Run differential
I don't think it's any surprise that our team's run differential has been wonky all year, because if four words sum up the 2006 A's, they are:

Inconsistent due to injuries

This is a team that's 23-9 since the ASB, and has a 10-game win streak, but has also gone through huge fallow periods.  Just look at Thomas, Swisher, and Chavez as microcosms, and you see guys that have been alternately really good or really bad due to their health.  Their numbers don't impress because when they've been bad, they've been so very bad.  But if you've watched the whole year, you know how good they are when they're right.

All the "experts" picked us to win the division (and some, even the World Series) for a reason--when this team is healthy, it can be really good.  I hope all the pundits keep chocking up the recent success to luck, instead of resurgent health, because when we get to the playoffs (barring more injuries, of course), nobody is going to know what hit them.

"The first night, we were right there," Bradley said. "All we needed was a couple of touchdowns, and we would have had them."

by jeepers on Aug 17, 2006 3:55 PM PDT reply actions  

is it me
or is BBG becoming the star of this site in many ways?  I just hope that when it comes time to re-sign with AN she gives us a hometown discount and doesn't run away to Pinstripe Alley or somethin' crazy like that.
1972...1973...1974...1989...2006

by emperor nobody on Aug 17, 2006 4:25 PM PDT reply actions  

BBG = no heart, not Mexican enough
... and just watch: if we retain her, a small but vocal contingent of AN'ers 3 years down the road will insist we should have kept oaktoon instead.
aka Baron Monkey Von Ballheimer -- FormerHuntsvilleStar @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 17, 2006 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

But...but...we've been grooming Louismg...
to replace her. He's a gonna be a sure fire star someday, maybe even an ESPN pre-season favorite to win the MVP!
"the reason why hitting the ball on the "sweet spot" of the bat feels so good is that the ball is contacting at the bat at a vibrational node." - salb918

by McFood on Aug 17, 2006 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

<grooms louismg>
<eats nits>
aka Baron Monkey Von Ballheimer -- FormerHuntsvilleStar @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 17, 2006 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

wait a second
is Ohad on the DPL (doesn't post list) these days?
the home run that Eric Chavez did was tight. Sprots4Kids quote

by Satchmo22 on Aug 18, 2006 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

She better not do what other former A's have...
done. Leave after an MVP(Most Valuable Poster) year.
"the reason why hitting the ball on the "sweet spot" of the bat feels so good is that the ball is contacting at the bat at a vibrational node." - salb918

by McFood on Aug 17, 2006 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

hey
I want a BBG poster
the home run that Eric Chavez did was tight. Sprots4Kids quote

by Satchmo22 on Aug 18, 2006 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Next AN Day SGA, BBG talking bobbleheads.
"the reason why hitting the ball on the "sweet spot" of the bat feels so good is that the ball is contacting at the bat at a vibrational node." - salb918

by McFood on Aug 18, 2006 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can't get it to shut up!
"Why won't everyone do what I want???" ~SportySpice

by baseballgirl on Aug 18, 2006 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

My only concern
is not to annoy the woofing gods.

Thanks, BBG, for helping Rob set himself straight

by OaklandSi on Aug 17, 2006 4:25 PM PDT reply actions  

I actually sent an email to Caly Davenport
about the run differential thing this weekend.  Part of the problem with the A's run differential is that they have had a large number of blowout losses, and few blowout wins.

I pulled out all of the games with RDs of 8 and over, and came up with a Pythag W% of around .533 (3-4 games ago), which wasn't far from their actual W% at the time.  

While he didn't like eliminating games altogether, he said he would take a look at possibly capping blowouts to see how much more realistic of a W% it gives.

Just from looking at the teams that are playing below their Pythag W%, you see teams that score runs in bunches, like Texas, and the ones tha are below it are pitching/defense teams for the most part.

by chri5 on Aug 17, 2006 4:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Re:
It isn't just the case with Oakland. Take a look at the Indians, who are in the reverse situation. And yes, I made tables and charts like that for a bunch of teams in anticipation of an article.

by Marc Normandin @ Athletics Nation on Aug 17, 2006 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

yeah
I noticed cleveland too.  Clay said he thinks there may be an article in this discrepancy thing.  We'll see.

I'm thinking about doing it for all of the teams, but since BP went to the new-style reports pulling the data for run differentials in an easily usable format has gotten a lot harder.

by chri5 on Aug 17, 2006 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Instead of pulling them out
could you cap the run differential per game at 8?

by MobiusKlein on Aug 17, 2006 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is it really that hard to understand?
When a team has good pitching and defense, opponents are not going to score a lot of runs.

When a team has so-so offense, they're not going to score a lot of runs either.

Whenever said offense scores more runs than the opponent, they pick up a win, but rarely by many runs.

It's more common for good pitching and defense to have a terrible day and lose a lot of runs than for so-so offense to have a great day and score a lot of runs.

Seems reasonable to me.  :)

by GlassHeart on Aug 17, 2006 5:41 PM PDT reply actions  

I posted this
In the "Rob Neyer is wrong" thread but I don't really think anyone saw it.

"I was more about making the point that our run differential as a whole better reflects the team we've been playing as for most of the season, a mediocre, hurt, underperforming team, worthy of a .500ish record. I think with guys like Bradley, Loaiza, and perhaps Chavez healthy, and better performances starting to show from Ellis, Swisher, Scutaro, Blanton, and perhaps even a guy like Harden returning indicate to me, at least, that we should expect to outperform the standard RD we've estbalished for this season, thus rendering any analysis of our current RD in an analysis of our current team and it's future expectation sorta pointless.

Basically my point, without all the convolutedness, is if the Royals had a disgustingly bad run differential and were 30-60 or something, but then all of a sudden were given Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, and other stars, and then played a few games where they won (let's say 35-60 now) because they're obviously now a much better team, but their run differential still sucked, you wouldn't take that run differential as a basis of your expectation for the team's play the rest of the way, would you?

I'm not advocating removing outliers from RD or anything of that like, just illustrating that it should be evident that our RD is a poor indicator of the team we're actually now fielding out there."

Again, my point is basically that I think it's pointless to use RD as a basis to predict future success with if a team has largely changed, especially within a season where one flukey week can GREATLY skew an RD. And I think the 06 A's certainly apply if this is really the case.

Gary's Furniture gon hook you up with discount priced furniture....UP, IN, HERE

by walk off bunt on Aug 18, 2006 1:01 AM PDT reply actions  

RD
Note that the 1997 giants were outscored 793 to 784 and had a 90-72 record.  So it is possible to get outscored over a season and still win a decent amount of games.  IIRC the giants had several game where they got totally blown out and rarely blew any of their opponents out.

by skwid on Aug 18, 2006 9:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Oakland Athletics.

Community Guidelines ANcillary Terms

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
A's relocation option from a legal expert on the issue
Oakland_athletics_team_logo_photofile_small
Prospects 1Q Report

Recent FanPosts

100_1536_small
My new smarts on the Fanpost, and Mr. Offseason is born, and getting to know me
Small
GOG 2012 #18: The Twins have a shiny new park, and not much else
Small
Gotta Be Their Pitching
Hardly-boys_small
Minor League notes on Major League Day Off
Small
Cespedes Upate?
Small
The SF Warriors, the LA Raiders and the Oakland A's
Photo__11__small
COG #17 - Yankees vs. Athletics or Spank me! Spank me!
100_1536_small
What to do? What to do?
Small
Fans Should Buy the A's
Reg3_small
Tom Milone's Nickname

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Yahoo_full_count

Front Page Writers

Maya_papi_small Tyler Bleszinski

08-_the_author_small 67MARQUEZ

Baseball_small baseballgirl

Poochini-butt_in_box_2_small Nico

Img_1877_small Billy Frijoles

Img_0653_small dwishinsky

Sb_nation1_small ahhall

Front Page Writers

Smiley_face_small gigglingone

Venasfans_small OaklandSi

60-minutes-clock_small cuppingmaster

Patpicturebucky2_small YonYonson

Img_3830_small David Fung

Moderators

Photofunia-5c770b_small coffee roaster

Denver_small Colorado Fan

Ls_logo100_small LoneStranger

Thumbs_up_small LongTimeFan

Marty_profile_in_green_small mrod

Babycomputergeek_small paris7

Img_0115_small Tutu-late