PECOTA Predictions

by devo on Feb 23, 2006 4:56 PM PST Comment 47 comments

Sorry if this has already been posted ... I looked, I didn't see anything, I swear ...

AL West
A's 91-71
Angels 81-81
Rangers 80-82
Mariners 79-83

The Yanks (92-70), the Red Sox (90-70) and the Indians (86-76) will join the A's in the AL Playoffs.

The Mets (88-74), Cardinals (87-75) and Dodgers (86-76) will join the winner of a Cubs-Phillies playoff for the NL.

Barry Bonds will make 500 PAs and the Giants will still fail to reach .500.

Amazingly, the Royals will still be worse than the Marlins.

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So let us apply

the "BP Adjustment" for the anti-stats crowd. If we give the Angels 3 extra wins for grit and take away 3 wins from the A's for a lack of heart, we still project to win the division.

Personally, I don't think the Angels will be as bad as that projection, but I do think the A's stand a good chance to beat their projection as well.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 23, 2006 5:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know what would be more surprising

the Angels losing 80 games or Seatle winning 80

"Every year I'm asked if we're buyers or sellers, and every year we're both. Just once, it would be nice to buy without selling."-Beane

by pbruins92 on Feb 23, 2006 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

All the win totals

seem oddly low... is MLB heading toward an NFL-like parity?

by Alon on Feb 23, 2006 9:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so

PECOTA is notoriously pessimistic on, well, pretty much everybody.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 23, 2006 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is what would happen if every player played exactly to their most likely outcome. While this year's field is a tad more condensed than normal, teams that exceed 95 wins are almost invariably overperforming.

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Feb 23, 2006 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

88 Wins Last Year...

Lets see here:

We lose...

An everyday Hatteberg, a very part-time Ginter (minors), an injured Dotel, and an injured Durazo.

We gain...

A fulltime DJ, a Full-Time Milton Bradley, a Part-Time Big Hurt, a Full-Time Loaiza, a Full-Time Saarloos (in the pen), a Part-Time a Full-Time Huston Street, a Full-Time Ellis, and a Full-Time Crosby (knock on wood)...and more.

----------------------------------------------------------

If healthy (knock on wood), I know we surpass 88 Wins by 3!

This season needs to start, ASAP! I'm going nuts!

June 19th - June 21st, 2006 ** Oakland Athletics @ Colorado Rockies ** Lets Go Oak-Land!

by Colorado Fan on Feb 23, 2006 5:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Once again...

...more worshipping at the feet of Mister Sabermetric Spock.

"Any shots that I'll be callin' will be to the bartender!" -- Band Camp

by Sharon on Feb 23, 2006 5:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I prefer a multipurpose statistical tool ...

... therefore I worship at the feet of Mister Sabermetric Spork.

it was the crazy-people underestimation @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 23, 2006 5:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does it make hot chocolate?

Then it could be a Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork.

by Ozzz on Feb 23, 2006 7:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If it did ...

... and you could hide it in your sneaker a la Maxwell Smart's shoe-phone, it could be a K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork.

it was the crazy-people underestimation @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 24, 2006 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and if you used it to eat cereal ...

would it be Special K-Swiss ister Sabermetric Spork?

by Rickeyfan on Feb 24, 2006 9:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Special K Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Rickeyfan on Feb 24, 2006 9:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

while listening to CCR ...

Midnight Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

it was the crazy-people underestimation @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 24, 2006 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In a Turkish prison...

Midnight Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 25, 2006 1:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

overnight it to me

Midnight Federal Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Feb 25, 2006 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Now with supply side economics included!

Midnight Federal Deficit Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 25, 2006 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Brought to you by the GOP!

Midnight WHAT Federal Deficit Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

</cgv>

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Feb 25, 2006 4:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And Jon Voight!

Midnight Cowboy What Federal Deficit Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 25, 2006 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And John Travolta...

Midnight Urban Cowboy What Federal Deficit Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

Neapolitan

by Ice Cream on Feb 25, 2006 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And MLB.com!

Midnight Mychael Urban Cowboy What Federal Deficit Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 25, 2006 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and the official utensil of Australian rockers...

Midnight Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy What Federal Deficit Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

Neapolitan

by Ice Cream on Feb 25, 2006 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

...driving SUV's

Midnight Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

("Express" thanks me for putting it back in...{ahem}...)

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Feb 25, 2006 9:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sold only at K-Mart!

Midnight Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 25, 2006 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It can play Dexter Gordon records!

'Round Midnight Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Sabermetric Spork

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Feb 25, 2006 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And has been inducted in the KC Royal's HOF!

'Round Midnight Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Bret Saberhagenmetric Spork

(Oops! Sorry, Poppy, for dropping 'Express'. My bad...)(Gentle scoldings always appreciated!)

Neapolitan

by Ice Cream on Feb 26, 2006 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And was a one hit wonder!

'Round Dexy's Midnight Runnners Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Bret Saberhagenmetric Spork

by Ozzz on Feb 28, 2006 2:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and was an NBA HOFer from Auburn

'Round Mound of Rebound Dexy's Midnight Runnners Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Bret Saberhagenmetric Spork

No poetry any more. I've moved on to more scary things. -- Miguel Batista @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 8, 2006 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

until it took Imitrex for too long...

'Round Mound of Rebound Headache Dexy's Midnight Runners Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Bret Saberhagenmetric Spork

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Mar 8, 2006 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

while listening to Billy Ray Cyrus

'Round Mound of Rebound Headachy Breaky Heart Dexy's Midnight Runners Waste of Oil Mychael Urban Cowboy WHAT Federal Deficit Express Blue Light Special K-Swiss Mister Bret Saberhagenmetric Spork

No poetry any more. I've moved on to more scary things. -- Miguel Batista @('.')@

by monkeyball on Mar 8, 2006 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry

Just reminded that the Rev's flock is talking about trading draft picks for Manny and reminiscing on the trade that brought Mo Vaughn to Anaheim.

Just for reference, you are not allowed to trade draft picks in baseball and Mo Vaughn came to Anaheim after signing a six-year free agent contract.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 23, 2006 6:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if anyone will correct them.

"Any shots that I'll be callin' will be to the bartender!" -- Band Camp

by Sharon on Feb 23, 2006 6:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Man, I hope not

It will end the fun.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Feb 23, 2006 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't speak to the

intelligence of Angel fans. There are lots of insightful and interesting Angel bloggers.

It does say something about the type of Angel fans that hang out at HH.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 23, 2006 6:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

HH = Hell Hole

There are plenty of decent, objective, reasonable Angels fans online. HH is where the leftovers seem to congregate.

--Nebraska--

(Shameless Self-Promotion)

by Ryan Armbrust on Feb 23, 2006 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You know where you stand in a Hell hole!

it was the crazy-people underestimation @('.')@

by monkeyball on Feb 24, 2006 9:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mr Sabermetric Spock

visits HH. (it's not me)

"Any shots that I'll be callin' will be to the bartender!" -- Band Camp

by Sharon on Feb 23, 2006 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dangerously close to trolling.

Copernicus felt the same way about the geocentric crew.

by salb918 on Feb 23, 2006 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Imagine if someone like Rev trolled

AN. <barf>

"Any shots that I'll be callin' will be to the bartender!" -- Band Camp

by Sharon on Feb 23, 2006 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's where the comment rating comes in handy.

4 or 5 1 rating's and any troll goes bye-bye.

by Ozzz on Feb 23, 2006 7:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How do they

only have 305 users or so? Aren't we at 5000 or so by now?

by Alon on Feb 23, 2006 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Why isn't Nico #2?

by Alon on Feb 23, 2006 9:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

AN has 4100-something

And Nico is not #2 because it took him over 700 tries to figure out the secret handshake.

(actually, here's the last time I recall that Blez's #5 was discussed...)

I've seen the error of my ways... MaElLuvR

by Poppy on Feb 23, 2006 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure that calling Nico "Number 2"

violates the Community Standards.

"Put a Milo on him." -Billy Beane

by kaweahkaweah on Feb 24, 2006 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mr SABR

Damn it. Why did he have to go and ruin the fun and provide them with knowledge.

"Swinging and missing to me is like 'Jesus, what happened?'" Hatty

by Razr on Feb 23, 2006 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Angels at 81-81?

That would be a shock.

Why yes. I am a ray of Fucking sunshine.

by grover on Feb 23, 2006 9:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think they're off on A's and Texas

A's, if healthy can win in high 90's and Texas can win in the 90-95 range. The Angels are a .500 team.

"Keep Watson in Oakland in '06"- The Committee has reconvened and is accepting new members.

by bigelephant on Feb 24, 2006 7:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

re: A's "if healthy"

that's just it - PECOTA doesn't predict health - those projections are based on everyone maintaining an average level of health and no one breaking out or falling off tremendously ie, the most likely scenerio for every single player.

Really, they should come with a margin of error, ie 90 wins +/- 8 or something .... I think you're overestimating the Rangers. Other than replacing Soriano with Wilkerson they haven't upgraded just because they acquired new pitchers. While their pitching staff was bad and its hard to think that turnover could be a bad thing, the pitchers the new guys are replacing were their best guys, the only ones worth keeping.

Check out some awesome music ...

by devo on Feb 24, 2006 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs