Link Dump 2/17: Mulder's Contract Year
by salb918 on Feb 17, 2006 6:37 AM PST
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PrintMark Mulder's contract expires following the 2006 season, but he's not sweating it.
"I remember Huddy saying last year that if it wasn't done by camp, that's it. And they got it done before spring," Mulder said. "That's the only example I know about. But that's not me. I don't think I'll approach it that way."Cool as a cucumber.
Here's something to think about: Mark Mulder makes $7.75 MM next year. PECOTA projects him at 4.4 WARP, with a 90th percentile WARP of 6.9. Esteban Loaiza makes $6 MM next year. PECOTA projects Loaiza at 4.6 WARP, with a 90th percentile WARP of 7.6.
Translation: Loaiza and Mulder are projected to have roughly similar seasons, with a higher upside to Loaiza - the older, more right-handed of the two. Think about what this means for 2006:
Decent Pitcher + 2 draft picks or Decent Pitcher + Stud Young Pitcher + Setup Guy with Wicked Slider and Creaky Elbow + Excellent Hitting Prospect + $1 MM. The Mulder deal is looking better and better by the day.
It could be worse. You could be the Yankees, who are paying Mike Mussina $17 MM this year. Mussina said that he would like to return to the Yankees next year. Problem is, he'll be 38 years old. I think the Giants might come a-knockin'.
David Gassko retools DIPS by using batted-ball types and averaging via the probability that each batted-ball type turns into single, double, etc. At first blush, it appears to use a lot of the same methodology of PrOPS, except all discombobulated to look at a pitcher's line. Dubbed DIPS 3.0, Gassko's example shows that Washburn had a DIPS RA of 5.19 last year. Mariners beware.
Statheads with some time to kill will love Studes' new Batter's Batted Ball Tables. What percentage of balls in play were line drives for the A's last year? What about Mark Ellis? Come to think of it, there's a lot of good information here even more the non-statistically inclined. Some of the simpler numbers help you look at if a player has made a pronounced change in his swing.
OK, this dump isn't done. But the boss is calling and I gotta get outta here. Take it from here, kids.
Update [2006-2-17 11:17:8 by salb918]: I don't mean to be a jerk, but I saw some comments about how the date on this DLD is wrong. All I can say is: You have no idea what you're talking about.
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Albert Belle
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/sports/AP-BBO-Belle-Arrested.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Hey...
linkles
Thanks!
Baseball papers
It was for a class titled "ecological memoirs". Obviously I stretched the definition of ecological a little. there's plenty of fresh air and grass in the coliseum for me.
depending on when the paper was written...
Ha... yeah...
I found out some interesting things while doing the research. During the WS, Castro banned the mention of Jose Contreras and White Sox games were illegal on Cuban TV.
Also, in 2003, the USC baseball team played an exhibition game against the Cuban nationals... I just can't find any results.
also...
Link Dump 2/10?
by marjoey on Feb 17, 2006 7:37 AM PST reply actions
you two really need to step up
No heart, I tell ya, no heart.
btw...
hey, don't blame ME for your lack of self-control!
Just like Sharon.
It would be about as cool as
by marjoey on Feb 17, 2006 7:58 AM PST up reply actions
damn!
geez
Practice post
Thomas is such a nice guy
chuckle chuckle, sniff
better keep practicing
by scutaroknowstheway on Feb 17, 2006 10:34 PM PST up reply actions
Sal... nothing but love for ya guy
All I'm saying is a preseason projection shouldn't have the power to sway opinion on deals from the previous years. Their 2006 performances should be the measuring stick for any such judgement.
I love you, Dr. Grover
There is continuing value in looking at the Mulder deal when you consider that Beane didn't just give up one year of Mulder, he gave up two. After this year would be a good time to look at the deal, too, because Mulder might well win the Cy Young. As would be 2013, when Daric Barton walks as a free agent. It's always worthwhile to evaluate deals at the time and down the line. Otherwise, we wouldn't be still be talking about John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander.
It's a fine line I walk...
BUT
Ultimately their numbers are make believe, only because they are predicting a complex event that hasn't happened.
I agree that the Mulder trade needs to be constantly re-evaluated to determine the true value of the deal... I disagree that 2006 projections are a valid way of making such an evaluation.
Speaking of Barton... I don't like him that much anymore. I know he's young but his lack of power is bothersome, and pigeon-holing him as a DH takes away any secondary value he may have offered to make up for the lack of pop. If his power numbers come around this year I'll be all happy again, but if they don't I hope Beane thinks long and hard about trading Daric.
Worst case scenario,
no, not really.
And yes, as he's getting locked into DH, it doesn't look good if he's only good for 14HR. Or 23HR for that matter.
by NicksDreamy on Feb 17, 2006 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Boy oh boy
You don't like Barton that much anymore? Where does this come from? He's just 20, and dominating AA. His K zone judgement will carry over into the bigs, this is almost certain. The power is the question, and the fact that you've soured on him already shows pessimism through and through. He has plenty of time to add loft into his swing, and the better his strike zone judgement the better chance he has at hitting pitches out since he recognizes them easier. All he needs to do is become MORE pull conscious. And he'll easily be hitting 20 bombs a year.
Look at it this way: Worst case he is John Olerud lite (tons of doubles, some homer, high average, great plate discipline, though Barton doesn't K much). Without the defense, even though his D is yet to be determined.
Best case: He's Jason Giambi (without roids).
And even if he doesn't develop power this year... "Beane should think long and hard about trading Daric"??!!! He'd still be a 21 year old with impeccable plate discipline and potential for more power.. His OPS would be above average STILL as a first baseman. You don't just trade a bat like that. There's no reason why (unless obvious things like getting Pujols or something)
speaking of pujols
how 'bout a comparison:
A-ball:
Pujols, Age 20, OPS: .954
Barton, Age 19, OPS: .956
(granted, Barton had 82 fewer ABs)
What I'm saying is, he's a young player and while his .491 SLG at AA doesn't make him seem like the second coming of Ruth, he was 20 years old. Has his body even filled out yet? Have some patience.
by Eric in Atlanta on Feb 17, 2006 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
Try this comparison
Barton: 6'0" 205 lbs
Which guy has the better natural stregnth and leverage in his swing?
The Pujols comparisons are crap. Barton has not shown the same talent that has made Pujols the best RH hitter in baseball, and possibly the best hitter overall. Barton looks good, he may even be great, but Pujols is looking like one of the best ever.
Being Barton
Barton's numbers from 1B = Olerud lite (translation... Eh)
Barton's numbers from the DH spot = Looking for an upgrade
When Barton 1st came over I thought he was one of the best prospects in baseball, I don't think that way anymore. I'd like to see Oakland put him back behind the plate but that seems unlikely to happen. Like I said earlier, if his power doesn't come around this year than I think his potential is a lot less than what everyone was hoping. The A's have a couple prospects (Putnam and Buck off the top of my head) who should be able to match Barton's current projected production at the big league level. The difference between Barton and those guys is age, Daric's younger so he has more "potential" than the other two.
So if Beane can get the exact same production at the big league level why shouldn't he trade the player with more "potential" from someone else he wants?
Put another way, would to swap Barton for Conor Jackson right now?
Barton
If Barton is OPSing 900 because of his OBP and average capabilities, so what?!?! He's still OPSing 900, which would put him among the top hitters in the game. WHY WOULD YOU TRADE A 900 OPS hitter???? Especially when he's dirt cheap.
Putnam and Buck do not have the ability to match Barton's current projected potential.
Barton: 316/410/491 in AA.
Putnam: .307/.388/.479 In A+
Buck: .341/.427/.472 In A-
Not only is Barton better than them, he's also at higher levels. Potential aside, there is no way any projection system based solely on numbers would have Barto equal to these two. It's just logic.
Not positive about trading him for Jackson. They are similar hitters, but Jackson is 23 and is unlikely to develop home power (or at least not as likely as Barton). I think Barton's a good bet to hit 300/400/Something at least in the Majors.
I may be crazy, but at least I'm thinking clearly
Jackson hit 41 Doubles, 2 Triples and 10 HRs with a 81/43 BB/K rate in 418 AB between AAA and ML.
Shit yeah you trade Barton for Jackson because Jackson has shown more power production and an even better eye. Take off the green tinted glasses when you look at Barton.
Barton's going to be considered a top prospect at the end of 2006 regardless of how his power develops. Even if he gets hurt and misses most of the year his prospect status will remain upper echelon. Barring an incredible ST he'll will start the year in AA. Putnam will start the year in AA. Buck is probably in A+. Point is none of these guys should be in Oakland's plans until the 2nd half of 06 at the earliest. Now lets talk hype. Barton has a ton surrounding him, Putnam not so much. Using your numbers Barton is a 900 OPS hitter and Putnam is a 870 OPS bat. We're not talking a lot of difference there.
Right now both hitters project to hit 15 HR with good doubles power and very good (Putnam) to excellent (Barton) on-base skills. These guys are the same type of hitter yet Barton is considerate (legitimately) an elite prospect. If you only need one of these bats and you can get similiar production from both, why wouldn't you trade the guy with greater hype to strengthen the organization elsewhere?
But I've strayed from my primary point. I think the A's need more power in their major league line-up, both now and in the future. I'm worried about Chavez's shoulder, but in theory the A's can expect above-average power production from 3B, SS, 1B, and RF (Swisher) for the next few years. At this time Barton DOES NOT project to hit for power in the Show, certainly not enough for a full time 1B or DH.
The A's can get away with sub-average power from the DH (Barton) if they can add power elsewhere. Powell, Herrera and Robnett are too far down the pipeline to count on. Is Melillo really a 25 HR bat? Maybe Bradley can finally maximize his talent. That's it.
Barton will be a good hitter in the bigs. But will he be a power hitter? If he's going to be a full time DH than he needs to hit for more power. I think there is a chance he can develope that power this year, in which case this whole discussion is a waste of cyberspace. But if he doesn't show the power development this year there is a good chance he never will. Barton is not a good athlete, so there isn't some hidden reserve of power waiting to be tapped (like is often mentioned when discussing a player like Lastings Milledge.)
If he doesn't show more power in 2006 than you need to think about trading him. You don't give a bat like Barton's away, you still have to work out a good deal, but he's no longer an untouchable.
Barton is a good athlete
make believe?
Pffsssh! "Science"! NERD!
Heuristic prediction and empirical analysis are worthless in this day and age.
Did I say PECOTA is useless?
But only when you try to use their 2006 predictions as a basis to judge the merits of the Mulder trade. A more accurate way to judge the deal would be to use the 2005 performances of the involved players.
Having a reliable projection system to help determine future contract moves is invaluable. Using a projection format instead of actual historical data to judge a trade seems foolish.
I don't think my criticism of PECOTA is silly so much as harsh. But the truth is this: They don't know what any player is going to do next year. They are making up the numbers. I'm not accusing them of pulling stuff out of thin air, I'm just calling it what it is... guesswork.
Poor Garret Anderson
I say that
I thought they didn't walk
Buster Olney report Card
look at espn motion
by Freefall on Feb 17, 2006 10:56 AM PST reply actions
Pretty solid
Can't wait to start actually playing the games.
FATWALLET!
No, no, no ...
Frick! ... Fatwallet!
<throws fatwallet>
For the last time!
What the <censored> is Fatwallet?
But
I don't what a fatwallet is.
lol
I'm guessing "Fatwallet" is a code name, like Deep Throat (not the porno).
Isn't that, from a certain perspective ...
I got that too...
oh, come on
Maybe I'm the same as Jennifer, but with a speech impediment.
wow
by Ryan Armbrust on Feb 17, 2006 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Wow...
Hmmm...time for an update:
Acquisitions since my diary:
Jay Witasick: Guy Mali
Joe Kennedy: Holmes Equatorial Guinea
Milton Bradley: Alfred Swaziland
Esteban Loaiza: Danny Slovenia
Frank Thomas: Jose Maria Guyana
Antonio Perez: Holmes Barbados
"Guy Mali" and "Holmes Barbados" are pretty good, but they still can't beat Huston Street's "Lex Sweden." My gosh, I kept seeing the phrase "Sexy Lexy" on AN up until October.
AN Census
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Feb 17, 2006 9:01 PM PST up reply actions
My new name is...
by PosterNutbag44 on Feb 17, 2006 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
I'm She-Mecha
SHE-MACHA?
please consult your Rantipole's Handbook
The silent E in "GOE" may be omitted, as may one (but not both) of the double-Ms.
"She-Macha" <shudder>
I actually wrote She-Macha
Omega Supreme
My Code Name is Omega Supreme.
Take The Codename Generator today!
<small>Created with Rum and Monkey's Name Generator Generator.</small>
Props to the Rev
the rev
Gee...
He almost had me fooled until he misspelled the name of the fancy imported water he was drinking....
by Mission1929 on Feb 17, 2006 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
chavez might be in the WBC for USA after all
-- Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I read that yesterday.
(Does anyone remember what Woody Allen said about metaphysics?)
I hope he's not my cab driver when this happens
by FreeSeatUpgrade on Feb 17, 2006 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
The big unanswered question
does that mean we'd be ...
Of course...
AN Census
by FormerHuntsvilleStar on Feb 17, 2006 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
I really, REALLY want ...
"He believes the Mayan temples...
Not the Asslanteans?
I thought that ...
Yes, I think Dutch really has been
"You know the way everybody is into weirdness right now? Books in all the supermarkets about the Bermuda Triangle, UFO's, how the Mayans invented television, that kind of thing? Well the way I see it it's exactly the same. There ain't no difference between a flying saucer or a time machine."
"People get so hung up on specifics, they miss out on seeing the whole thing. Take South America for example. Every year in South America thousands of people turn up missing. Nobody knows where they go. They just disappear. But if you think for a minute, realize something: there had to be a time when there was no people right? Well, where did all these people come from? I'll tell you where: the future. Where did all these people disappear to: the past. How did they get there? Flying saucers, which are really, yeah, you got it: time machines."
does that mean ...
what an odd cosmology ...
Neutron Bomb
by peanut gallery on Feb 17, 2006 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
Sickels gives us the A's top twenty
by crosis @ Athletics Nation on Feb 17, 2006 12:24 PM PST reply actions
Obviously
OT
by crosis @ Athletics Nation on Feb 17, 2006 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Stylesheet
I can't figure out the file name if the link above is correct, anyone point me to it? Amongst other things, I would like to know what other div class's are defined in the SS.
Thx-
link correct
You layout hacker!
John Donovan's AL West Preview
As much as every underdog-loving baseball fan can't help but pull for the underfunded A's, the unvarnished truth of the matter has been hard to swallow lately. Simply put, the A's haven't been good enough. They haven't made it into the postseason in the past two years. They haven't won a playoff series since 1990.
So what's a forward-thinking general manager like the A's Billy Beane to do? Spend more money and make some moves. Beane stunned onlookers this winter when with one hand he signed pitcher Esteban Loaiza to a $21 million deal and, with the other, didn't automatically cut someone else loose. Then Beane went out to find a couple of bats to protect Eric Chavez and add some pop to a light-hitting lineup. Now the A's are poised to be plenty good enough to win the American League West in 2006.
<sob>
"It was getting harder and harder as the day got closer to keep it up," said Hatteberg, who batted .256 with seven home runs and 59 RBIs in 134 games last season with Oakland. "It came together. That's what I kept telling myself -- 'Just be ready. It can happen.' And it did."
it's very tempting ...
I have no idea what you are talking about.
sure you don't
Like if I excerpted from that article:
Hatteberg is behind Adam Dunn... Hatteberg: "I want to be able to get in there. They sound like they wanted me to get in there. I know [Dunn] plays... so maybe it's a matchup... I'll be ready."
ellipsis
[sic]
Question:
I always liked Scully better
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