Baseball America and Smoak

Thanks for the heads up!

Management has definetly increased Beane's budget to go after amateur talent. One can only hope that the wallet remains open to secure established players.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 12:22 PM PDT reply actions

Smoak will seal the deal!!!

This will be a serious juggernaut for years to come if we can land him!!!

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

How do you know?

Management has definetly increased Beane's budget to go after amateur talent. One can only hope that the wallet remains open to secure established players.

I disagree. I think Beane has managed the budget extremely well such that there is money available. I don't think management has changed anything.

by Donner on Jul 20, 2005 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Consider the 2005 draft as evidnece to my claim

A high school draft pick almost always has the leverage of going to college to boost their signing value. College players don't have that. The A's went heavy after high school talent in the 2nd round, virtually insuring a higher dollar figure by the end of the draft.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

And please excuse the typos!

Oops.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

The 2005 draft is evidence of my claim

Beane has managed the budget such that the money was available to sign a high school heavy draft. The budget hasn't changed, the way the budget is allocated has. Note the $4 million difference between last year's payroll and this year's payroll. Some of that got used to sign draft picks apparently.

Again no evidence the purse strings have loosened (at least since last year). One way to think of it, is we have the 2000 team (in terms of youth) with a $60 million budget instead of a $30 million budget.

by Donner on Jul 20, 2005 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Another thing...

I am not saying the budget will stay at $60 million. A playoff appearance, some modest ticket price increases, just basic inflation adjustment. Should push the budget up a couple million each year.

$68 million in 2010 would be an fairly conservative budget increase without a new stadium.

by Donner on Jul 20, 2005 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure, you could look at it as money management

But the high school picks, the Kotsay extension, the early talk of picking up Zito's option all indicate to me that Beane has been given a few more bucks to work with. We're not going to see a $100 million payroll anytime soon, but I think the next time Beane is faced with a major FA defection he can make the best (as he said it) "baseball" decision and not worry so much about the economics.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions

FOr those of you unfamilar with SMOAK

Baseball America ranked him the 95th best player available in draft.

He is 6' 2" 175 18 from SC

He is a switching hitting firstbaseman whose defense was compared to "JT SNOW". very porjectable power.

Prior to draft he committed to got South Carlina for college so he fell drastically in draft.

Another scout compared his Offense to that of chipper jones.

--
I personally thought/think thier is no way he would sign.

Hope I am wrong he is 2nd round talent!!! we stole the the 16th.

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 12:33 PM PDT reply actions

Smoak has said

that if the A's give him 1 mil as a signing bonus, he will sign. No less

Its up to Billy to determine if the kid is worth it

"He threw me a pitch I'd never seen before, Sexson said. The umpire asked me what it was, and I said, 'I don't know.' This guy throws ghost pitches.''

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Snow

How do they compare him to snow and say he has very projectible power?

by pickinmachine on Jul 20, 2005 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Just his defense

was compared to Snow.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

duh

missed that part

by pickinmachine on Jul 20, 2005 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions

No prob

Happens to us all.

by grover on Jul 20, 2005 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Signing Smoak?

Wow.

I'm shocked.

But that would be great...

by Sharon on Jul 20, 2005 1:01 PM PDT reply actions

Can't see it happening.

I hope I'm surprised, but the A's have snapped up 30 of their top 33 draftees, so if it hasn't happened yet, I'd be surprised if it happened at all.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

That's what I figured from day one.

I'm just so surprised to even hear of a possibility of signing the guy.

by Sharon on Jul 20, 2005 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

I repeat:

It is only 1 million dollars and then he is ours for 7 years!!! Minimum!!!

As Beane said in his last interview with Blez, power hitting is at a premium and more difficult to get than power pitching.

1 million seems like an awful small amount for a kid that can be hitting like Barton in a year!!!

Only problem is that he is a 1B.

He is a switch hitter though and may be able to play LF.

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, but...

As I've said before, giving $1m to a 16th rounder messes a few things up for the year following - "You gave a 16 rounder $1m last year, why won't you pony up the same to me for a 7th round spot this year?"

Either way, they won't announce anything on Smoak until Matarazzo has said yes or no to his offer, because if they did give Smoak a mill, 'Razzo would be expecting three.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

exactly hollywood,

no way does beane give a 16th rounder 1 mil...he'd have 29 GMs phoning, e-mailing, texting him one big F*CK U.

screw smoak. the dude wants to go to school- fine. go to NC and play college ball. see ya in about 2-3 years...maybe.

We're not dunderheads here...

by bigelephant on Jul 20, 2005 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Happens all the time

Guys fall but are paid based on value.

VERY VERY COMMON

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions

a 16th rounder

getting paid 1-2 round money is "common"?...very very very rare i'd say. is smoak's talent that rare that he falls into that category? doubtful. the reason why smaok was still around in the 16th was 1) he wanted too much $$$ 2) he was telling everyone who'd listen he was going to college. bye-bye

We're not dunderheads here...

by bigelephant on Jul 20, 2005 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Every other year it happens

That is common in my book .

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions

my response wasn't...

...necessarily about your use of the word "common" because its somewhat subjective. in fact, you're probably correct, there are some teams willing to pay mid-to-late rounders big money....doesn't mean its right or smart.

if a teenager (with the "wisdom" of his parents) essentially "threatens" MLB teams with "i want 1 million or i'm going to school" and gets drafted in the 16th round, then in my book he deserves 16th round money if he wants to sign. i'm tired of agents, greedy parents and immature teenager punks hijacking the draft.

sounds like smoak needs to go back to school.

We're not dunderheads here...

by bigelephant on Jul 21, 2005 5:36 AM PDT up reply actions

The Dodgers

gave Andy LaRoche $1 million as a 39th-round pick over the objections of the commissioner's office.

by rsquared on Jul 20, 2005 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions

And had Jeff Larish refuse $660k in the 13th round

Doesn't mean it's common. It just means some teams like to spend regardless of potential return.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Also

You never know how these guys are going turn out. I mean, they're all great prospects on paper. We took Brad Sullivan and Brian Snyder in consecutive picks over Eric Duncan, Daric Barton, and Carlos Quentin (ironically we got the middle one and were purportedly interested in acquiring the other two).

by dchu on Jul 20, 2005 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Durazo link?

No back up for this but...IF the A's had an insurence policy on Durazo norm is 75% of Salary after 60 days on DL.

Well that provides the million for Smoak.

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 1:14 PM PDT reply actions

Some doubt about Smoak's ability

I can't find it on their website any more but there was an article in the New York Times a few days ago about MLB teams flocking to tournaments that use wood bats to get a more accurate read on the abilities of guys who usually swing aluminum.

The article opened by talking about Smoak as a guy that at least one MLB scout/executive said did not demonstrate nearly as much power with a wood bat, as with aluminum (which has a much larger sweet spot).

Obviously, we can't tell who the unnamed MLB source was, or if there's any validity to the claim, but it was the first negative thing I've read about Smoak's ability.

by branch rickey @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 1:34 PM PDT reply actions

maybe someone affiliated with the A's

that would drive down his value some

I'm the guy with the Carney/Jared Lansford jersey

by gojohn10 on Jul 20, 2005 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions

BB once turned down college at Stanford

for the big bucks of pro ball, and I think he regrets it. I just hope Smoak has his full heart into pro baseball, not just for a quick million. Talented players with no heart don't translate into a high percentage of successful big leaguers.

"This," Kendall said, "is why I catch."

by carp on Jul 20, 2005 2:04 PM PDT reply actions

smoak and $1 mil

I admire Smoak's stance.

To me it says that he loves baseball, wants to play, but understands that things don't always work out. He also understands the value of a college education. Basically, he has put a value of $1 million dollars on that--and the ramifications not going to college would have on his life should he turn pro and maybe things don't go as planned.

I think its a great way for a talented kid to decide whether to sign. He'll go pro and play his heart out if the team is willing to compensate him for missing college.

"He threw me a pitch I'd never seen before, Sexson said. The umpire asked me what it was, and I said, 'I don't know.' This guy throws ghost pitches.''

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Many

Singing bonus also inlcude college tution guarentee.

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

sure

but who's actually going to get around to doing that if they are already playing pro ball. I think smoak realizes that if he doesn't go to college now (while he's young and can get the full experience--also very important), he likely never will.

"He threw me a pitch I'd never seen before, Sexson said. The umpire asked me what it was, and I said, 'I don't know.' This guy throws ghost pitches.''

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I dunno.

Break a kneecap in AA, be told you have no future in the game at 22, plenty of time to let that college guarantee kick in.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions

As mentioned above by HollywoodOz,

I don't think the issue is whether or not the A's can afford $1mil, but more the issue of setting precedent. My guess is the A's will hold firm and if Smoak budges and signs for less fine, if not the A's will let him walk so as not to have to capitulate to the demands of 16th round draft picks in the future.

Nico

by Nico on Jul 20, 2005 4:34 PM PDT reply actions

Come on Nico:

Everyone knows that he was first round pick that everybody passed on because they thought his asking price was too high.

Key here is that only the A's knew it was 1 million. His buddy was asked to sign by the BoSox and demanded 1.75!

Do you seriously think that no team out there would want him for 1 mil, IF, they knew that was his asking price?

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 21, 2005 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Smoak

I don't think he'll sign, but not for the reasons others have said. Think of it this way. Suppose, for the nonce, that Smoak really is a first-round talent, and you, in your role as A's general manager, are given the chance to draft him with a 16th-round pick, but you still have to pay him first-round money. Would you turn this down? I wouldn't. I'd think "Gee, this is exactly the same as someone trading me a first-round pick for a 16th. Sweet!"

That's all predicated on him really being a first-round talent. But if he was ranked as the 95th best prospect in the draft, that's more like a third-rounder, and a million dollar bonus seems like a lot for that slot. It sounds to me like Smoak has his heart set on going to college, and has intentionally set his price so high that meeting it would mean overpaying for him. And unless something has caused his stock to rise since those rankings came out, the A's aren't going to be the team that does that.

Rock and roll around my head like a 6 string belief

by andeux on Jul 20, 2005 5:06 PM PDT reply actions

Good post.

Something that a lot of people are forgetting is this - no other club thought enough of their chances of signing him (or thought enough of him) that they bothered to take him in round 15.

Are we really convincing ourselves that if this guy was the shiz, and was any chance of being signed, that nobody would have taken him in round 15?

I think he made his mind up early, made it very clear to all, and the A's thought they'd chance a flyer on the 16th round, just in case.

If it turns out that he signs, then I'll gladly call myself wrong, and it'll be a nice big steal for Billy. But I just don't see it.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

One guy I remember

telling the A's "don't bother to draft me, I won't sign" was Todd van Poppel. The A's took a chance and drafted him. He signed after all. Not sure that was a good thing, though!

Nico

by Nico on Jul 20, 2005 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

The A"s

also thought about drafting Smoak with the Travis Buck pick, but weren't convinced he would sign. They initially offered him 945K for that pick. So clearly Beane thought he was at least supplemental round talent. So to me the question is does BB want to pony up that extra 55k to get another first round pick

"He threw me a pitch I'd never seen before, Sexson said. The umpire asked me what it was, and I said, 'I don't know.' This guy throws ghost pitches.''

by Alien @ Athletics Nation on Jul 20, 2005 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Interesting

If 55 thousand is all that's holding things up just do it. If this guy's power potential is legit it makes sense to pay a little extra right now to get him cheap for 6 years.

Olympian Amil Gartenamo, world record holder in both the javelin and the hundred yard dash--only person who ever died by throwing a spear into his own back.

by Furious George on Jul 20, 2005 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions

One key I see here is:

Was he the 95th best player in the draft, including college players?

Or, was he the 95th best HS player in the draft?

If he was the 95th best player in the draft and is only 18, sign me up. In four years he'd be in Alex Gordon's class! :)

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 21, 2005 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions

The risk on Smoak's part

is that his next suitor may well be Tampa Bay, or Kansas City, or Pittsburgh, etc., and he may languish in an losing organization for a few more dollars. So it goes.

Nico

by Nico on Jul 20, 2005 5:35 PM PDT reply actions

Nico, HollywoodOz, BigElephant

I think your concern with setting a bad precedent is misguided. The competition is already doing this. The rich teams do this all the time--draft "first round talents" who aren't expected to sign in lower rounds, then offer them 1st-round money (i.e., way above "slot money", aka "precedent") to sign. Specifically, some of our competitors do it with some frequency: The Mariners did it with Tuiasosopo last year, the Angels did it with a couple of guys whose names I can't recall at the moment. That's another reason (besides mere good scouting) a visit to Baseball America will probably annoy you with the pervasive raving about high-end Angels prospects. They scout well, but they're also using more means than we are to come up with good young players.

by Faust on Jul 20, 2005 6:41 PM PDT reply actions

I don't doubt it.

But you have to remember, the A's play a different game than the Mariners and the like when it comes to signing talent. They run very hard on the 'is this going to bring us a return' question.

The Landon Powell selection in the first round last year was not based on Powell being so talented that he warranted a 1st round pick - it was to do with Powell wanting to play for the A's, and telling the A's he'd sign for third round money if they took him before anyone else could.

And the 'knock-on effect', where one man's contract price affects every other contract around him, was why Powell, a college senior, didn't officially accept his deal until the halfway point in the season - because he didn't want his below-par money being used as a means to cheap out on all the guys below him in the pecking order.

Giving a mill to Smoak would go contrary to everything the A's preach about fiscal responsibility, calculated risk, and buying cheap to sell for a profit.

...in my opinion.

by Ozzz on Jul 20, 2005 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions

The Schott Game is over!!!

We now have the "Wolff" in Sheeps clothing.

In other words, we have Billy crying poor while an A's fanatic like Louis Wolff is opening up his wallet to fortify his favorite team.

We all know that the A's ownership group is the 3rd richest in baseball and the we found out on the broadcast last night from Wolff that beane has the ability to do what he needs to do in order to make this team viable. Ownership trusts him with thier money!!!

One million dollars will not stop the ownership group,that I believe this has become, from signing a kid that is JT on defense and Chipper at the plate.

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 21, 2005 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions

No, it won't, but...

...that million will become several more million for other players.

If you act like a team with unlimited funds, you get screwed for every cent you have - on every single deal.

Example #1 - the New York Yankees.

by Ozzz on Jul 21, 2005 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think that we are in fear of becoming:

The Yankees.

But, keeping this team together and stealing someone for a mil every now and then sounds good to me. :)

by saint @ Athletics Nation on Jul 21, 2005 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

BTW, where did you find this?

I don't subscribe to their premium service, but I do look at whatever free columns and chats are available, and I don't see any Jim Callis chats linked on the home page.

by Faust on Jul 20, 2005 6:45 PM PDT reply actions

Every so often

Like I'd say at least a week, they do these chats. The link doesn't hang around on the front page for long, though.

by OaktownTribesman on Jul 20, 2005 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions

It is still on the front page

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=8736 But it is an insider thing.

Seriosuly one of best 40 bucks I spend each year.

by novaoakland on Jul 20, 2005 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions

shreds of hope

In everything I've read this guy is not going to sign. All the hope we have is a throwaway line in a chat. Forgive me if I don't want to work myself up for the disappointment...

by Apricot on Jul 20, 2005 10:16 PM PDT reply actions

Smoak...

...only falls to 16 because everyone else thought he was unsignable; no one wanted to take the flyer on him since they thought he was going to USC (local jargon for University of South Carolina). I saw it reported in my local paper [Charleston Post & Courier; may require registration] the day after the draft that Oakland had offered him $950,000, knowing that Smoak was seeking one million - that's close.

Havens, a shortstop for Bishop England, and Smoak, a first baseman for Stratford, have said they were leaning toward playing for South Carolina unless a big-league team offered a signing bonus they couldn't refuse.
Smoak said he turned away a $350,000 offer from the Philadelphia Phillies in the third round. Oakland's late selection was curious only because representatives of the A's were told Monday night that it would take at least $1 million to lure him away from playing college baseball at South Carolina.
"They talked to my advisors and wanted to know if I'd sign for $950,000 and we told them for another $50,000 I'd consider it," he said.
Unless Oakland is willing to pay high-round bonus money, Smoak will be in a Gamecock uniform next year which he has never considered a consolation prize. Earlier this season, he spoke highly of Tanner and was looking forward to the college baseball experience.
"I was in a win-win situation whatever happened," he said.

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on Jul 20, 2005 11:12 PM PDT reply actions

I don't know shit about Justin Smoak ...

but I don't understand offering 950k if he wants 1 mil. It seems like if the A's are serious they'd offer him 1 mil if they are going to get that close. There's just no need to create bad blood at the outset for a 5% discount. If he works out, that 50k means nothing. If he doesn't, the 950k down the drain doesn't hurt any less than 1 mil.
It sounds like a disingenuous offer, and that is worse than no offer at all.

by iceplant on Jul 21, 2005 12:40 PM PDT reply actions

Think of it like this...

...you've got a high school kid who BA says is the 95th best player in the draft. He's committed to going to his state's best college (arguable amongst South Carolinians) and he has yet to assign a dollar value to his professional services because he knows he's going to a higher learning institution. Now you're a team who is willing to spend a million trying to get a young player to change his mind and become a pro - a pro that just happpened to be quite the steal because of his draft position. If you propose one milion, he may come back with one point four million, just to test you. However, you come in a just spare change under a million (not that I really view 50K as spare change mind you) and you get the kid to believe that he could ask for one million and then feel damned lucky he got it. In other words, I believe that Oakland took the preemptive step - for the young man's sake - in assigning his value for him, sneakily. Head games - Foreigner

http://www.cafehayek.com ~ a blog for classical liberals

by LowcountryJoe on Jul 21, 2005 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions