Sonny Gray once again showed us he is a great pitcher, in case you needed a reminder. Wednesday he made his first impression on spring training with two solid innings and a few strikeouts. It wasn't perfect, but for his first game action in months proved he is worthy of a third consecutive Opening Day start.
He is just 26-years old and is making his third Opening Day start in his third full season in the bigs. That is impressive. I began to ponder Gray's future, not necessarily as an Athletic, because we all know how that might turn out. I took a look into what makes Gray successful to see if there are clues as to what he might become.
As a 25-year old last season Gray a 2.73 ERA and finished just a shade below 4 fWAR. His FIP was a solid 3.45, his K-BB% was 13.2, and his GB/FB ratio was 1.72. He is a pitcher that knows how to limit baserunners and runs. He relies on weak contact on balls hit on the ground, but can get a strikeout or two when needed. It is a unique set of skills.
I looked into what other comparable starters have that same skill set. Since 2005 there have been 60 seasons by starting pitchers age 25 or younger with the same FIP or better. In the same timeframe there have been 85 seasons by starters 25 or younger with the same K-BB%, or better. Finally there have been only 44 seasons by starters 25 or younger with the same GB/FB ratio, or better.
Here is where it gets interesting. There have been only four seasons from starting pitchers ages 25 or younger in last ten years that matched Sonny's totals, or better, in all three areas: Felix Hernandez in both 2009 and 2010 and Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks in 2015.
Hendricks and Martinez are fine pitchers and could each play a key part in their respective teams' chase for the postseason. However each are roughly the same age as Gray and not exactly what I'm looking for.
That leaves us King Felix. We learned yesterday that the Athletics seem to be following the Mariners' lead in dedicating a section of seating their their ace. Could Sonny be following after Felix on the mound, too?
There are some slight differences in Gray's and Hernandez's overall profiles. Hernandez was one of the best prospects in baseball as a teen and pitched a full season at age 20. Gray, despite being a high draft pick, wasn't quite the same prospect and didn't crack a big league roster until he was 23. Similar to King Felix, though, once Sonny reached the major leagues he was atop the Oakland rotation to stay.
In the two seasons in which Hernandez matched Gray's 2015 aforementioned outcomes his overall lines looked like this:
Year | Age | Innings Pitched | ERA | FIP | K-BB% | GB/FB |
2009 | 23 | 238.2 | 2.49 | 3.09 | 14.9 | 1.79 |
2010 | 24 | 249.2 | 2.27 | 3.04 | 16.2 | 1.81 |
Clearly Hernandez was the better pitcher. He struck more guys out, walked less batters, and maintained a similar GB/FB rate. He also threw at least 30 more innings in each season than Gray did in 2015. What is interesting to me and gets me to the point I want to make is that, not only was Felix a really, really good pitcher almost immediately, he continued to develop his strengths and got better nearly every season. His K% rose each season from 22.2% in 2009 to 27.2% in 2014, before dropping slightly in his age-29 2015 season. He also walked less batters each and every season from 2009 to 2014. All the while his GB/FB ratio steadily increased.
Gray also has been a very, very good pitcher since arriving to the major leagues. He is emerging as not just Oakland's best starter, but as one of the best starters in baseball.
Sonny Gray about to make his first spring start. NL scout told me this a.m: "Gray has the best arm in the league, as far as I'm concerned."
— Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) March 9, 2016
Armed with a fastball that can reach mid-90's velocity and a top-10 curveball and top-15 slider there isn't a doubt in my mind that Gray can continue to add more strikeouts. He also lowered his walk rate more than a full percentage point from 2014 to 2015. If he can improve in those areas and also find the success he's had with the contact he's allowed Gray will continue to be one of the more feared pitchers in the game.