We are all too aware of the two seemingly wasted contracts on the A's payroll. Billy Butler (2/$20) and Coco Crisp (1/$11 with a vesting option) are a constant source of distress on AN. But should we really worry about these two players?
I'm in love with the...Canha?
The first reason to ease your worries about the two players is the fact that the former isn't a primary option for the A's going forward. With Canha presumably manning left, Burns in center, and Reddick in right, any contribution from Crisp is icing on the cake. The A's don't appear to expect him to contribute, and rightfully so. The A's also have Andrew Lambo, Jake Smolinski (of A's farm), and Sam Fuld as potential options.
What can we expect from Canha in left? It's hard to say exactly, but you probably know how bullish AN is on Canha. Last year alone, Canha was worth almost 2 more wins than Crisp by bWAR in limited playing time.
What about their contracts?
The fact that Coco Crisp might be on the bench for the majority of 2016 doesn't change the fact that he's being paid a large portion of the payroll to do so. Billy Butler will also likely be paid a lot to contribute negatively. To find out just how common and impactful contracts like these are, I looked at the previous 5 World Series winners to see how often these types of contracts occur. The criteria I used for a similar contract was anything over $5 million for a player who put up around .5 bWAR or less. A little arbitrary? You betcha! But I think it captures the general gist. I used Baseball-Reference as my source for all the numbers below.
Team | Player | 2015 bWAR | Salary (milllions) | % of total payroll | Non-wasted Payroll |
2015 Oakland A's | Coco Crisp | -0.7 | $11 | 13.20% | |
Team Payroll: $82.9 | Billy Butler | -0.8 | $10 | 12% | |
Eric O'Flaherty | -0.6 | $5.5 | 6.6% | ||
Totals | -2.1 | $26.5 | 31.8% | $56.40 | |
2015 Royals | Alex Rios | -1.1 | $11 | 9% | |
Team Payroll: $121.6 | Omar Infante | -0.8 | $7.5 | 6.1% | |
Jeremy Guthrie | -1.8 | $9 | 7.4% | ||
Greg Holland | 0.2 | $8.25 | 6.7% | ||
Jason Vargas | 0.3 | $8.5 | 6.9% | ||
Totals | -3.2 | $44.25 | 36.1% | $77.35 | |
2014 Giants | Marco Scutaro | -0.3 | $6.6 | 4% | |
Team Payroll: $163.5 | Tim Lincecum | -0.7 | $17 | 10.3% | |
Matt Cain | 0.1 | $20 | 12.2% | ||
Sergio Romo | 0.3 | $5.5 | 3.3% | ||
Totals | -0.6 | $49.1 | 29.8% | $114.40 | |
2013 Red Sox | Joel Hanrahan | -0.5 | $7 | 3.9% | |
Team Payroll: $178.4 | Ryan Dempster | -0.2 | $13.25 | 7.4% | |
Matt Thorton | 0.2 | $5.5 | 3% | ||
Jake Peavy | 0.6 | $14 | 7.8% | ||
Total | 0.1 | $39.75 | 22.1 | $138.65 | |
2012 Giants | Tim Lincecum | -1.7 | $18 | 13.7% | |
Team Payroll: $131.3 | Brian Wilson | -0.1 | $8.5 | 6.4% | |
Barry Zito | 0.2 | $19 | 14.4% | ||
Totals | -1.6 | 45.5 | 34.65% | $85.80 | |
2011 Cardinals | Jake Westbrook | -0.2 | $8 | 7% | |
Team Payroll: $109 | |||||
Totals | -0.2 | $8 | 7% | $101 |
A few important notes before we dive into some analysis:
- Estimating payroll is always a bit tenuous as it's sometimes unclear how much of the salary was paid by which team in the event of a trade.
- Playoff teams' payrolls will be elevated due to deadline acquisitions. Bad teams (like the 2015 A's) will give up good players at the deadline and stick with bad players in a lost season.
Team | Player | Slash Line | OPS+ | bWAR |
2015 Royals | Alex Rios | .255/.287/.353 | 73 | -1.1 |
2013 Red Sox | Will Middlebrooks | .227/.271/.425 | 87 | -0.1 |
2013 Cardinals | Pete Kozma | .217/.275/.273 | 53 | -0.3 |
2012 Giants | Brandon Crawford | .248/.304/.348 | 86 | 2.4 |
2011 Cardinals | Ryan Theriot | .271/.321.342 | 85 | 0.1 |
The A's have overcome this before
I anticipate a sticking point from above will be the A's payroll compared to other teams. It's true the A's have a lot less payroll to work with, but even with their low payroll ways the A's can succeed with bad contracts. Let's look at the recent 3 year playoff run:
Team | Player | 2015 bWAR | Salary (milllions) | % of total payroll | Non-wasted Payroll |
2014 A's | Jim Johnson | -1.3 | $10 | 12.1% | |
Team Payroll: $82.3 | |||||
Totals | -1.3 | $10 | 12.1% | $72.30 | |
2013 A's | Chris Young | -0.2 | $8.5 | 13.7% | |
Team Payroll: $61.9 | Brett Anderson | -0.8 | $5.75 | 9.3% | |
Totals | -1 | $14.25 | 23% | $47.65 | |
2012 A's | Brian Fuentes | -0.7 | $5 | 9.4% | |
Team Payroll: $52.87 | |||||
Totals | -0.7 | $5 | 9.4% | $47.87 |
So, this isn't something new for the A's (or many big league teams). Like I mentioned above, the fact that these are two position players who were projected to start is important, especially in 2015 when there was no clear contingency plan. For 2016, the A's are seemingly prepared for both players to contribute squat.
Conclusion
In the process of overcoming their 2 worst contracts, the A's have taken a huge step by replacing Crisp with Canha. Overcoming just Butler is certainly doable, and the 2014 Kansas City Royals literally did it on their way to an AL Pennant. If the rest of the lineup can step up, the A's can certainly compete with Butler as their DH and Crisp as a role player.
While it's easy to think of Crisp and Butler as major failures, the most successful teams have similar versions. The money used on Crisp/Butler easily could have been spent on a similar failure. Signing free agents is hard, and the A's have been solid in this realm.
Some final thoughts before I go:
- This is mostly a thought experiment. The methodology won't win any awards and I'm fully aware of that. If you see any problems with my thought process, please feel free to mention them below!
- I'm still holding out hope that one or both of these guys can be a non disaster in 2016. We see it all the time where a player is paid double digit millions only to be firmly below average (1 WAR or so) without sinking his team. It'd be neat if one of these dudes could pull that off
- The A's payrolls in 12/13 were hilarious: the 2012 team had exactly three players who even qualified for the first list (salary >$5 million)
- It must be nice to be a big league baseball player making a big league salary