FanPost

August preparation for September expansion leading to a lonely October and a tranquil November;

(Just passing through...) - Ralph Freso/Getty Images

Or how I learned to appreciate the power of a whisper by sitting amongst the silence of the Hill

Progress comes with pain.

Although not all pain leads to progress; sometimes pain is simply the product of destructive forces rendering themselves upon the flesh and soul of the unfortunate. Pain can be the result of a seemingly unrelated sequence of events that lead to an inevitable and actual breaking point that cripples the body and blinds the mind to all other stimuli. It can send its sufferers along scattered paths, making useless grand plans of intricate design and sound reason that were meant to produce tangible results of depth and measure. Pain can cause what was meant to be to become what never was.

In other words… pain can be like Oakland's bullpen.

I would like to see a better Oakland A's team in 2016 and watch them rise again above the .500 mark, even if they cannot be reasonably expected to contend for the AL West crown. I believe this coming offseason needs to be similar to the one we experienced after the 2011 season, where Billy Beane traded Cahill, Gio and Bailey and seemingly consented to taking a step back for 2012 in order to consolidate the organizational strength for a run in 2013 and beyond. I’m not suggesting a fire sale of assets; merely suggesting a course of action that imposes more hurdles in the immediate while preparing for a more significant improvement in 2017 and beyond. I believe the focus for next season needs to be on acquiring as much young, prospective talent as possible without resorting to trading away the most productive big league assets currently on the roster.

I applaud Beane’s use of his International Bonus slots to acquire P’s Cody Martin and Aaron Kurcz this season and believe the team should continue the practice if the opportunity presents itself in 2016. Oakland gave up nothing but the permission to spend money without additional taxation to acquire these players and while they don’t have significant upside they could end up providing low cost filler innings for the big league club or serve as trade chips to use in lieu of more favored prospects. If the season (mercifully) ended today Oakland would have the 7th worst record in baseball, entitling them to an international bonus pool worth $3.443 million (in 2015 dollars). The top two slot allotments for the 7th overall pool are worth $1.726 million and $478.9K, respectively. This past July the A’s traded the #53 slot worth $388.4K to acquire Cody Martin which suggests the leverage to acquire higher ranked prospects next season if the A’s trade their assigned slots.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (the CBA) expires after the 2016 season and it is unknown if a new CBA will include an International Draft or a modification of the current international free agency rules; what is known is there are 10 teams barred from spending more than $300K on any international prospect when the next cycle opens July 2, 2016 due to their previous year’s spending practices. This creates two clear opportunities for Oakland: On the one hand they can expect to have approximately $3.5 million available to them to spend on international free agents while not having to compete with the likes of the Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees or Cubs. The other option is to trade their two high-end allotments (each worth more than what they gave up to acquire Cody Martin) to other teams eager to take advantage the reduced number of buyers and acquire prospects much closer to contributing to Oakland. Of course… I see a third option as I peer through the looking glass. Trade the slot allotments then turn around and spend big on international free agents. Accept whatever penalties come with the new CBA; you will either be restricted from spending more than $300K on a prospect for up to 2 years if the current free agent system remains or you will lose your 1st round pick in the new international draft for up to 2 years, the penalty dependent on how far a team spends above its allotment. We can discuss this in more detail come next summer.

Of more immediate interest is the upcoming offseason and the potential moves Oakland could make in free agency and on the trade market. This write-up by AN’s Jeremy Koo estimates Oakland’s current payroll projections through the 2018 season, based on the current 40 man roster. The arbitration numbers for 2017 and beyond are subject to the variation of games yet to be played but it gives us a general idea of future expenditures for key players like Sonny Gray and Brett Lawrie. The 2016 A’s are currently looking at a 2016 payroll of approximately $60.7 million and it would be fairly easy to pare that down another $6 million by moving on from Ike Davis ($5 million) and Dan Otero ($1 million). Go medieval and another $6 million gets freed by non-tendering Sam Fuld ($2.5 million) Fernando Abad ($1.5 million) and Eric Sogard ($2.0 million). That would mean up to $40 million available to play with, assuming Oakland continued to fund an $85 million payroll.

Yet before we start salivating over which free agents the A’s should sign I’d like to re-emphasize my central theme: the goal for 2016 should be to add as much young talent as possible. For me that means crossing off the list any free agent who will cost the A’s a draft pick. Yes, the #7 overall pick is protected but the Competitive Balance A pick (a potential mid-to-late 30’s draft pick) is not. Right now Oakland has three picks in the Top 50 and I don’t want that to change. This rules out free agents likely to receive a Qualifying Offer such as Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon and Jeff Samardzija. I do not believe that simply spending money on major league free agents is enough to make Oakland competitive again; long term growth and success requires investment in assets that do not project to contribute for 3-5 years, i.e. prospects. The draft is one way to invest, the international market is another. Oakland saved approximately $7 million in 2015 payroll when they traded away Kazmir, Zobrist, Clippard and O’Flats. They could stick that money into a piggy bank and have enough to fully fund their 2016 international allotment. But I want to see Oakland spend more than $3.5 million on international, amateur talent. I’d rather they quadruple the amateur budget to cover the taxation for spending beyond their allotment than sign a mid-tier free agent to a $10 million AAV contract; which is the choice that the team would have to make to free up the money necessary to make my primary objective a reality.

There is more I want to do before diving into free agent largesse.

The underlying beauty of amateur signing bonuses is the negligible impact they have on future spending. Oakland could spend $20 million on amateur talent next year through the draft and the international market and those funds would be readily available to them again in 2017. I believe a similar expenditure can be made to acquire quality prospects currently in pro ball by taking on a poison pill contract. I propose the following deal: Oakland trades PAaron Kurcz and OF Brett Vertigan to Arizona for IF Aaron Hill, plus prospects Marcus Wilson and one of Domingo Leyba or Isan Diaz. This would represent another salary dump deal for Arizona, similar to the Toussaint/Arroyo trade they made earlier this year. Aaron Hill is owed approximately $2/2.5 million for the remainder of this season and $12 million next year. He has been a sub-replacement level player per fWAR and bWAR for going on two seasons and as he heads towards his age 34 season it is doubtful there is much if any bounce back potential. Arizona has made several moves this year designed to free up salary and open roster space for near-MLB talent and this deal would continue that trajectory. The Diamondbacks have a new TV deal that kicks in next season but $12-14 million is not an insignificant amount of money.

The prospects I’ve targeted could actually help make the deal happen. Marcus Wilson was projected by Baseball Prospectus as a potential first division CF with 50 Grade or better tools across the board. He rated 9th in their preseason review of the Diamondbacks farm system but earned a preseason C Grade from Sickels and the 24th spot in Baseball America’s preseason guide. Wilson just turned 19 two weeks ago and is hitting 260/357/343 in Short Season ball with an uptick in his walk rate and a downtick in his strike out rate. He jumped to 6th on BA’s midseason list, although #1 overall pick Dansby Swanson had yet to sign when the revised list came out. Marcus Wilson is quite simply the highest rated, highest ceiling prospect in Arizona’s system that I believe would be made available for this type of deal. He is also (as are Isan Diaz and Touki Toussaint) a member of the 2014 draft class; a draft class that seems to have fallen out of favor with Diamondbacks Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa. He and GM Dave Stewart have been pushing to return Arizona to contender status sooner rather than later and freeing up to $14.5 million in salary at the expense of prospects who aren’t projected to help the big league club until 2018 at the earliest matches the early contention agenda.

Normally when I post a trade proposal I can give a precise list of players; unfortunately that’s not the case this time. Leyba and Diaz are 19 year old infielders who are projected to end up at 2B. Leyba has struggled in High-A ball while Diaz has a 1.050 OPS and a 162 wRC+ in Short Season ball. Leyba is the higher rated of the two, probably in the Top 15 of Arizona’s system. I think Diaz would sneak into the back-end of their Top 20 list but that’s likely a minority opinion. I like both players as the second prospect coming over and have decided that the selection of which one would come to Oakland will depend on how eager Arizona is to move on from Aaron Hill. If Arizona is anxious to create room on their 40 man roster for September call-ups than Oakland will take on Hills’ remaining 2015 moneys in exchange for Leyba being the second prospect. If Arizona is more interested in keeping Leyba than I believe the deal could happen at the start of the offseason and would include Diaz. This still frees up $12 million in 2016 payroll for the Diamondbacks.

There is a clear question of how we assess the value of this deal. I am prepared to consider Wilson a top 76-100 hitter in the minor leagues based on his BP and BA rankings. Using this chart we see that a prospect in that grouping is worth $11.6 million in surplus value. If we stick with the same rankings we have to conclude that (in all likelihood) both Leyba and Diaz fall outside the chart’s purview. Yet I think it fair to assume some surplus value; for the purposes of discussion I’m considering $5.8 million a reasonable talking point. This gives Oakland a slight but distinct advantage in terms of the acquisition cost, as the loss of Kurcz and Vertigan adds little to the debit side of the ledger; its Hill’s salary that makes the greatest negative impact for Oakland. The difference between adding any of Hill’s 2015 salary and not is compensated by the inclusion of the higher-rated, more advanced Leyba in a deal of that nature.

I am not interested in wasting a roster spot on Aaron Hill... he would be designated for assignment immediately and (barring a near-miraculous waiver claim) released. I see his $12 million salary as being paid in lieu of signing bonuses directed towards the prospects. This money, in addition to the quadrupling of the funds available for signing international free agents and the additional cash to finance picking 7th overall and thrice in the top 50 of the draft, would eat up a significant amount of money that would normally go towards the big league payroll. Yet even if this price tag approached $25 million it could produce 8 to 10 new, high-ceiling prospects that would help revitalize the farm system and the organization without having to trade anyone from the current 25 man roster. One could even argue that if the A’s adopted the draconian approach advocated earlier and cut ties with the likes of Sogard and Fuld there would still be sufficient moneys available to bring in mid-tier free agents to bolster the big league roster.

Not that that's what the money should be used for...

We can talk about that next time. Maybe.

Thanks for reading.