FanPost

The Future is Bright, But Will the A's Compete in 2015?

The Oakland Athletics may have finally completed their roster turnover on Wednesday with their most recent deal sending Yunel Escobar to Washington for RP Tyler Clippard. However, you can never know if Billy Beane is finished making moves. With that being said, I'd like to breakdown the roster from last year to this year and assess whether or not the team will actually digress in 2015. The fact is that the Athletics got quite a bit younger this offseason and acquired many players with a lot of team control remaining. The distant future appears brighter now than it did prior to this offseason, but the main question is, will the Athletics be able to compete in 2015 as well as they would have prior to the roster turnover. Lets take a look at the numbers:

STARTING LINEUP

I will start by comparing the most common nine players in the A's lineup last year to their projected starting nine this year, using WAR and wRC+:

[All stats give on the chart will represent the 2014 season in the MLB only. In further commentary I may bring up career numbers or minor league numbers for some players.]

2014

WAR

wRC+

2015

WAR

wRC+

C - Derek Norris

2.5

122

C - Stephen Vogt

1.3

114

1B - Brandon Moss

2.3

121

1B - Ike Davis

0.3

108

2B - Eric Sogard

0.3

67

2B - Ben Zobrist

5.7

119

3B - Josh Donaldson

6.4

129

3B - Brett Lawrie

1.7

101

SS - Jed Lowrie

1.8

93

SS - Marcus Semien

0.6

88

LF - Yoenis Cespedes

3.4

109

LF - Sam Fuld

2.8

90

CF - Coco Crisp

0.9

103

CF - Coco Crisp

0.9

103

RF - Josh Reddick

2.3

117

RF - Josh Reddick

2.3

117

DH - Alberto Callaspo

-1.1

68

DH - Billy Butler

-0.3

97

2014 Avg WAR = 2.1 / Total wRC+ = 929

2015 Avg WAR = 1.7 / Total wRC+ = 937

As shocking as it may seem, this displays that the A's should in fact score more runs with their lineup in 2015 than they did with Donaldson, Moss and Cespedes in the heart of their lineup last season. Although, this chart only accounts for 2014 stats, in which Billy Butler (among others) had an off year. If the A's can get him back to, or even near his 2012 form, in which his WAR was 2.9 and his wRC+ was 139, they could be in for a significant upgrade on offense as a whole. One of the reasons why this lineup has the potential to be more successful even after losing a guy like Donaldson is because of the acquisition of Ben Zobrist. While Brett Lawrie is -4.7 to Donaldson in WAR and -28 to Donaldson in wRC+, Zobrist is +5.4 to Sogard in WAR and +52 to Sogard in wRC+, more than making up for the loss of Donaldson. While the A's did use a lot of other DH besides Callaspo in 2014, he totaled the greatest amount of plate appearances from that spot, which might lower the 2014 numbers a little.

The average WAR is down slightly from last season, but with Stephen Vogt behind the plate and Marcus Semien most likely getting the every day job at SS, the A's feel they are upgrading defensively. Semien's numbers represent his slim 255 plate appearances in the majors last season, but in TripleA his wRC+ was 142. You cannot expect that out of Semien at the major league level, but it shows that he has potential to improve in 2015. The A's did use a lot of players at each position last season and they will again in 2015; that is why it is important to also take a look at the bench players from last year and the projected bench for this year.

BENCH

While the 25-man roster is not set in stone for 2015 just yet, here is last year's most commonly used bench players VS next year's projected bench.

2014

WAR

wRC+

2015

WAR

wRC+

Nick Punto

0.2

73

Craig Gentry

1.4

77

Craig Gentry

1.4

77

Josh Phegley

0.2

92 - 132(AAA)

John Jaso

1.5

121

Eric Sogard

0.3

67

Sam Fuld

1.3

73

Mark Canha

N/A

131(AAA)

2014 Avg WAR = 1.1 / Total wRC+ = 344

2015 Avg WAR = .48 / Total wRC+ = 367(407)

While these numbers are a bit skewed due to the fact that Canha has not yet reached the majors and also because Jaso was actually a starter while he was healthy, they do give a good idea of what to expect in 2015. Sogard takes over for Punto as the reserve infielder. Fuld and Gentry will most likely platoon in LF, same goes for Vogt and Phegley at C. Since Fuld and Vogt are LH, they will see more time in the starting lineup, leaving Gentry and Phegley on the list of bench players for 2015. Gentry and Phegley will see most their time against lefties, which will likely help their overall numbers. The A's always do a great job shifting their lineup to create the match ups they want, expect more of the same with platoons and late pinch hitting in 2015.

STARTING ROTATION

The starting rotation is an area where a lot of people say they A's have question marks. This may be due to the fact that they lost Jon Lester and Jason Hammel to free agency and traded away Jeff Samardzija to the White Sox earlier this off season. However, the A's held the best record in baseball for months in 2014 with a rotation featuring Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Drew Pomeranz and Tommy Milone. Four of those guys will be returning in 2015, with a slew of other young arms fighting for a spot in the rotation. Anyone from Chris Bassitt, Jesse Hahn, Sean Nolin or Kendall Graveman would be an upgrade or at worst an equal replacement of Milone. Let's take a look at the numbers for the five players who started the most games for the Athletics last season VS the A's projected rotation for next season using ERA, WHIP and WAR from the 2014 season:

2014

ERA

WHIP

WAR

2015

ERA

WHIP

WAR

Sonny Gray

3.08

1.19

3.3

Sonny Gray

3.08

1.19

3.3

Scott Kazmir

3.55

1.16

3.3

Scott Kazmir

3.55

1.16

3.3

Jesse Chavez

3.44

1.30

1.7

Jesse Hahn

2.96

1.13

0.8

Jeff Samardzija

2.99

1.07

4.1

Jesse Chavez

3.44

1.30

1.7

Tommy Milone

4.23

1.40

0.4

Drew Pomeranz

2.58

1.13

0.7

2014 ERA = 3.46 / WHIP = 1.22 / Avg WAR = 2.56

2015 ERA = 3.12 / WHIP = 1.18 / WAR = 1.96

Keep in mind that ERA and WHIP are better when they are lower and WAR is better if it is higher. While this list does not consist of Jon Lester, the A's were at their best when they still had Chavez and Milone in their rotation. Also, it was a small sample size for Pomeranz, so we cannot expect numbers quite that solid again in 2015. However, with all that being said, the A's, despite losing All-Stars, should not take more than a tiny step back in 2015. This rotation is still very solid and is in fact younger this year than last. Not only that, the A's now have a lot more depth with three other pitchers not on this list that could fill a rotation spot, Chris Bassit, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman. Also, we cannot forget about the Tommy John rehabbers Jarrod Parker and AJ Griffin, who could make their way back into this rotation before the All-Star break. Both Parker and Griffin were huge contributors to the A's success in both 2012 and 2013.

BULLPEN

There are a lot of similar faces coming back to the Athletics' bullpen in 2015. So, instead of continuing with the format I've used for position players and the starting rotation I'm quickly going to compare Luke Gregerson and Tyler Clippard, the one main difference in the bullpen for 2015.

Player ERA / WHIP / WAR

Luke Gregerson 2.12 / 1.01 / 0.9

Tyler Clippard 2.18 / 1.00 / 1.5

These numbers are very similar, making Clippard a perfect replacement for Gregerson, taking over the 8th inning duties in front of incumbent closer Sean Doolittle. I don't think many people expected the A's to make a move to acquire another back end of the bullpen piece. Even after losing Gregerson, they seemed to have a very solid bullpen, but now it is even more solidified with a proven set-up man in Tyler Clippard. Another important thing to note about Clippard is his ability to create fly balls. His FB% in 2014 was 49.4% also, his IFFB% was 19.3% and that will likely increase mightily with him now pitching in Oakland. He is the perfect pitcher for the o.Co Coliseum. The A's will pay Clippard more than they would have paid Escobar in 2015, but they are saving money in the long run due to the fact that Escobar is owed 14 million over the next two seasons and Clippard becomes a free agent after this season (in which he will make around 9 million).

Now lets take a look at 12 potential options for the Athletics bullpen in 2015. Some of them are locks, but the others will either gain a spot due to the fact that they did not make it into the rotation or if they have a solid showing in spring training.

Name

Team (2014)

IP

ERA

WHIP

WAR

Sean Doolittle

Athletics

62.2

2.73

0.73

2.4

Tyler Clippard

Nationals

70.1

2.18

1

1.5

Dan Otero

Athletics

86.2

2.28

1.1

0.7

Chris Bassitt

White Sox

29.2

3.94

1.58

0.7

Fernando Abad

Athletics

57.1

1.57

0.85

0.6

Ryan Cook

Athletics

50

3.42

1.08

0.3

Eury De la Rosa

Diamondbacks

36.2

2.95

1.39

0.2

R.J. Alvarez

Padres

8

1.13

1

0

Kendall Graveman

Blue Jays (AAA)

38.1

1.88

1.02

N/A

Sean Nolin

Blue Jays (AAA)

87.1

3.5

1.25

N/A

Eric O'Flaherty

Athletics

20

2.25

0.95

-0.1

Evan Scribner

Athletics

11.2

4.63

0.94

-0.2

There are a lot of very solid options for the A's bullpen in 2015. I'd expect to see, Doolittle, Clippard, O'Flaherty, Cook, Otero and Abad for sure, but I expect all of these guys to make an impact at some point, if not this season then in 2016.

TAKEAWAY

The Athletics have a very deep pitching staff. With Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir headlining the rotation, they have a plethora of options to fill the remaining three spots. Pomeranz, Hahn and Chavez look to be the leading candidates, although Billy Beane himself has mentioned Kendall Graveman as someone he sees making the rotation out of spring training. The A's also have a very strong bullpen, especially after the recent acquisition of All-Star set-up man Tyler Clippard. After losing Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Yoenis Cespedes and Derek Norris (four all-stars), the A's lineup for 2015, according to wRC+ actually got better. It's not always the big name all-stars that make a team successful. Oakland has proven this many times in the past, most recently in 2012, right after an offseason makeover similar to this year's. The one piece that has remained since before the 2012 makeover and after this 2015 makeover, is Coco Crisp. There cannot be enough said about the value of Crisp to the A's organization. With Crisp healthy in CF and the newly acquired pieces filling in around him, I expect the A's to be back competing for another American League West Division title in 2015.

All STATS AND DATA USED IN THIS ARTICLE WERE PROVIDED BY FANGRAPHS.COM AND BASEBALL-REFERENCE.COM.

Zach Simas.