FanPost

The Curious Case of Jason Hammel

On Sunday night, in the final outing of a three-game series between the Dodgers and Giants, Jake Peavy will take the mound for San Francisco. Peavy, who was brought on by the Giants to fill the void that Matt Cain's absence leaves, comes into a NL West race in which every start will certainly have plenty riding on it. So when looking at his 1-9 record and 4.72 ERA as a member of the Red Sox, the one-time Cy Young award winner's naked eye test equates to GM Brian Sabean virtually taking a turn at the slot machine and hoping for the best from the former Padres ace.

Yet, Tony Biengino of Fangraphs pointed to something that often goes unsaid amidst all the banter about pitching and the need for it especially among ball clubs vying for the playoffs like the Giants. Directing our attention to the ballparks and their effects they have on certain hitting percentages, it becomes apparent that Peavy is moving to a new home that will lend much more generosity towards what hitters generate against him.

"If you took all of Peavy’s 2013 fly balls allowed, and put half of them in Fenway Park, he would have allowed a .310 AVG-.870 SLG, 130 production relative to the MLB average," Biengino writes. "Put those same fly balls into AT&T Park, and it drops to .286 AVG-.777 SLG. This is not an insignificant difference. Thus far in 2014, Peavy has already allowed a whopping 31 doubles, 11 of them on fly balls. He has allowed a .298 AVG-.847 SLG on fly balls, 126 production relative to the league. Expect that figure to drop down to near MLB average from now through season’s end."

Calling AT&T Park a pitcher's park is common knowledge, and according to Park Factors, it's an extreme pitcher's park.Obviously it means that for all of Peavy's struggles this season, there are legitimate factors that would suggest he could become an average to above average pitcher the rest of the way. It's Jake Peavy too by the way, not some journeyman pitcher who is causing someone to over expend himself searching for ways to provide value attached to him.

It then got me thinking about the Oakland Athletics' situation with Jason Hammel on its rotation. Hammel, who was attached to Jeff Samardzija in the blockbuster trade at the beginning of July that sent the ace to Oakland for a trio of prospects, has only added to the skepticism that has lingered with the A's about the back half of its rotation.

Going 0-3 in his first three starts with a 7.11 ERA, it has caused the man he replaced, Tommy Milone, to become a prevalent part of the conversation regarding those concerns.The reason being that Milone possessed a 2.62 ERA in his previous 11 starts before being sent down to Triple-A Sacramento, despite clearly having the track record of a worthy starting pitcher on Oakland's roster.

However, It was made clear after Saturday's 4-1 loss to the Rangers that Bob Melvin and the A's clubhouse are not using that line of thinking and are viewing the early stat line from Hammel as an anomaly.

"This is a guy who has always been really effective," Bob Melvin said in the post-game press conference. "I think he'll start locating that stuff soon."

Delving into Hammel's potential as an anchor for the A's rotation the same way Biengino perceived Peavy's acquisition a win for the Giants, there are some clear reasons to agree with Melvin on sticking with who general management went after.

For starters, his comfort level seemed to finally settle in on Saturday despite the Rangers' BABIP average of .368, contrary to the average he has held hitters to this year of .284. In addition,it's no secret that Hammel is susceptible to the long ball and his HR/FB rate is an indicative sign of that. Yet, lasting 5.2 innings at Texas, a stadium that is in large favor for hitters, did not yield a single one.

As Melvin said after the game, the A's traded for him for a reason and his 8-5 record to go along with a 2.98 ERA while with the Cubs is something no one can simply reject.

As was mentioned though, Hammel's susceptibility to the long ball has been the real deterrent of his struggles with the A's. Allowing three home runs in his first two starts, ironically in two of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, his HR/FB rate was a horrifying 30%. An average 10.3% HR/FB rate (36th highest in the majors) he is surrendering this season isn't a number to feel content with either. For comparison, the Indians offense HR/FB rate is at 10.2% and the team is 8th in league in the category.

But things are working in Hammel's favor, still. While with Chicago, Hammel was pitching in a park that allowed 104 home runs for the average 100 home runs in the league from 2010-2013. He's now going to be pitching the majority of his starts down the stretch at a park in Oakland that allowed 78 home runs for every 100 in the same time span. Sure enough, Hammel's next start on the road at Houston is another park that is more kind to pitchers than batters, ranking 16th in home runs in 2014.

Clearly this doesn't paint a picture of the foreseeable future for Hammel, but it ultimately points to the case of what he has working for him as an A's starter. More importantly, he's got a clubhouse behind him, which is clearly more beneficial than a bunch of numbers that work in his favor.

Regardless though, Hammel's stint in an A's uniform has been somewhat unlucky. In his three starts with Oakland, two runs he has yielded have been unearned and the BABIP average in all three individual games he's pitched is higher than the average he has maintained all year.

Lets not lose sight of the bigger picture either. The same that goes for Peavy's case goes for Hammel and the newly acquired Oakland A is no Jake Peavy. He is enjoying the best year of his MLB career and has only logged over 170 innings pitched three times in a season. All three of those years he had an ERA above 4.60. The only season in which he logged over 100 innings and his ERA was below 4 came in 2012 when he was a member of the Orioles. Now with over 121 innings under his belt before the end of July and a 3.41 ERA, he is undoubtedly having the best season of his major league career.

Looking at statistics more plainly, you'll notice that in the first half of the season Hammel held hitters to a line of .223/.277/.360 and since the All Star break has surrendered a line looking like this: .382/.447/.697. It's no wonder why Melvin has dismissed the idea of abandoning ship.

With someone like Hammel, the A's organization knows what they are getting and that is an average to above average pitcher who is capable of providing exactly what made him a sought out player by the club to begin with.