On July 4th, the A's made huge move and acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs. In exchange they had to give up their 2012 1st round draft pick Addison Russell and their 2013 1st round draft pick Billy McKinney. The fans were in shock, the baseball world was in shock, and a debate ignited. Was it too much? Was it just right? Most say it was a very uncharacteristic move, on the famed GM Billy Beane's part. After careful examination though, it seems like it actually wasn't so uncharacteristic after all.
Billy Beane is and has always been on the forefront of thinking outside the box. He uses this approach in all aspects of his life in the baseball world. He has adapted time after time as the game changes, as management changes, and as team strategy chances across the MLB. This trade was a perfect representation of just that. It wasn't that Billy Beane made an uncharacteristic move, it was more so that changes in the MLB allowed him to think outside the box a little more.
Starting after the 2012 season, a new Qualifying Offer system began with Free Agents. Where previously Free Agents had to be classified as a Type A or Type B free agent. Type A free agents were those determined by the Elias Sports Bureau to be in the top 20% of all players based on the previous two seasons. Type B free agents were those in the next 20%. Unclassified free agents were those remaining in the bottom 60% of players.
Teams that lost a Type A free agent to whom they had offered arbitration received the top draft pick from the team that signed the free agent, plus a supplemental draft pick in the upcoming draft as compensation. Teams losing Type B free agents to whom they had offered arbitration received only a supplemental pick as compensation. Finally, teams losing an unclassified free agent, gets nothing at all.
The new Qualifying Offer system simplified everything. The rules are as simple as this: A team will be able to receive draft pick compensation if it makes its former player an offer at least equal to the average of the 125 richest contracts. The QO amount is determined after the end of the previous season. Last season this amount was $14.1mm. No need to compare value in position against position, or categorize them in types. Either a player gets an offer or he doesn't. An offered player either accepts for that salary, or he declines and his team gets a complementary pick after the 1st round of the following year's draft.
This is where Billy Beane sees an opportunity. With huge multi-year deals becoming a common theme, salaries are only going to rise, but the QO is the QO, and a 1st round pick is a 1st round pick.
Trading a couple of your 1st round picks is a hard thing to swallow, but when you know that you will be getting a couple extra first round picks in the next couple years, it isn't so bad.
Jeff Samardzija is under team control through next season. After the 2015 season he will be 31 years old, and possibly coming off the best 2 years of his career. Not to mention he has had a very steady career of being a dominant pitcher up to this point in the 2014 season. He has a career 3.95 ERA, with an 8.5 K/9 ratio. So far this season he has the lowest ERA of his career, the lowest FIP of his career, and the lowest BB/9 of his career, to go along with the 2nd lowest H/9 and HR/9 of his career. So it looks like he is only getting better, and a sure thing for a huge multi-year contract, just like so many of his pitching peers. Once the 2014 season is finished, you will see players like Scherzer, Lester, and Shields thrown into that mix with big FA contracts, to fuel Samardzija's desires.
Losing Samardzija after the 2015 season isn't such a bad thing after all, and it is the plan Billy Beane had when trading for him in the first place. He is going to be offered a QO from the A's and he is going to decline it to sign a huge contract elsewhere. This is going to result in an additional 1st round draft pick for the A's.
From just the Cubs trade alone, the A's will be receiving a draft pick that can replace Russell or McKinney in 2015. Looking at other players that were already on the team; Cespedes is a free agent after the 2015 season as well, and if he hits 20+ HR again this year and next, he is a sure thing to get a QO, if not extended by the A's. Scott Kazmir, who is set to make $11mm in 2015 with the A's, will be a free agent after the 2015 season. If he keeps pitching the way he has been, he is a sure thing for a QO.
So even though we lost 2 of our top prospects, by 2016 we are looking at the possibility of having 3 additional 1st round picks to go along with our normal 1st round pick. This covers those loses, plus some more. Not too bad for giving up 2 players who may not even see MLB action until 2015 or 2016 anyways.
Wait, there's more...
Starting at the end of the 2012 season, another major change in MLB came into play. The Competitive Balance Lottery. The Competitive Balance Lottery gives teams who have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools, one of six additional choices after each of the first and second rounds. Six teams are drawn at random to get an additional pick after the 1st round of the following year's draft. The remaining teams are drawn at random to get an additional pick after the 2nd round of the following year's draft.
I think you all see where I'm going with this now. Billy Beane has adapted to the system once again. With the ownership group negotiating a 10-year lease with Oakland-Alameda, and Wolff's letter to the JPL about staying in Oakland and building a new ballpark on the current site, it seems like the A's are going to be a small market team for a very long time. Which means we will be participating in the Competitive Balance Lottery for many years to come.
This is a huge advantage Billy Beane has over almost 20 other teams. No matter how well the A's perform in the season, and no matter how many additional 1st round draft picks they receive through the Qualifying Offer process, they will still get a Comp pick guaranteed in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the draft every single year. Every. Single. Year.
In conclusion, we now can begin to understand this "new" Beane mentality. Trading away a couple top prospects to get a player to "win now" isn't so detrimental. After all, come the very next year the A's will get at least 1 additional top round draft pick to replace them. Sometimes our drafted players won't be able to compare to those who we traded away, and other times our drafted players will exceed those we traded away. Either way, they will be a 1st or 2nd round player. It was a low risk gamble the A's and Beane were willing to take this year, and possibly again and again if needed. When the system falls in our favor, we must take advantage. You have my blessing Mr. Beane, trade away...