FanPost

Magic Numbers and Games to Watch 09/23/2013 (Home Field Edition)

Congratulations to our 2013 American League West Division Champion Oakland Athletics! Time for serious home field advantage talk.

Detroit lost today, dropping our magic number against Detroit to 4. Boston beat Toronto to hold serve. Our magic number against Boston is 7. The Athletics have 6 games remaining: 3 @ LAA and 3 @ SEA.

Optimal results for the Athletics for Monday (all times Pacific):

  • 5:10 PM - Minnesota defeats Detroit (Verlander, DET v. Pelfrey, MIN) (ALDS Home Field = 4)
  • 7:05 PM - Oakland defeats Los Angeles (American) (Milone, OAK v. Richards, LAA)
  • Boston is idle. (ALCS Home Field = 7)
  • Would result in an ALDS home field magic number of 2, Detroit and Oakland each having 5 to play.
  • Would result in an ALCS home field magic number of 6, Boston and Oakland each having 5 to play.

Magic Number = 163 - A's wins (93) - OppL - 1 if tie breaks to Oakland.

ALCS Home Field Advantage

  • 7 for a tie = BOS (W v TOR; 2 @ COL, 3 @ BAL) (Any tie breaks to the A's*: 163 - 93 OAK wins - 62 BOS losses - 1 tiebreaker advantage)

ALDS Home Field Advantage

  • 4 for a tie = DET (L v CWS; 3 @ MIN, 3 @ MIA) (A's won season series: 163 - 93 OAK wins - 65 DET losses - 1 tiebreaker advantage)

*Tiebreaker with Boston. A tie would be broken as follows:

  1. Oakland and Boston tied the season series 3-3.
  2. Better intradivision record: OAK is 41-29 with 6 to play, BOS is 43-30 with 3 to play. The second tiebreaker magic number is 6. Because the only way for the primary magic number to move and this tiebreaker magic number to not move is Boston losing to Colorado, The other 5 games to force a tie would have to reduce this magic number to 1 at worst, requiring resort to the third tiebreaker. Other scenarios ending in a tie would mean Oakland wins this tiebreaker.
  3. Better record in the last half of intraleague games: OAK is 41-24 with 6 AL games remaining. BOS is 40-28 with 3 AL games remaining. The third tiebreaker magic number is 3. Because a tie record necessarily requires a greater number of Oakland wins and Boston losses, this tiebreaker always breaks to Oakland.
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