## Momentum isn't real

This is the logic of someone who believes in momentum:

Prediction: Team A has momentum, they will have continued success

Result: If team A wins, my belief in momentum is justified. If team B wins, then I argue that the momentum shifted and therefore the team with momentum won (and my belief in momentum is also justified).

From a rational perspective, the above argument is BS. How can momentum shift? Wouldn't that require team A to not have momentum in the first place? Doesn't having momentum by definition make it impossible to shift? The momentum argument is a logical fallacy.

Now lets look at the stats this series:

When Detroit has a scoring inning, the next team to have a scoring inning is: A's (4 times), Tigers (1 time)

When Oakland has a scoring inning, the next team to have a scoring inning is: A's (5 times), Tigers (3 times)

When Detroit wins a game, the next team to win a game is: A's (1 time)

When Oakland wins a game, the next team to win a game is: A's (1 time), Tigers (1 time)

This means that either there are A LOT of shifts in momentum or that it doesn't exist. Let's assume you still believe in momentum, and you just think it has shifted a lot. Presumably, the only useful purpose of momentum is as a predictor of future success. If momentum changes this much, then it is a terrible predictor of success (you might as well flip a coin).

So,

A. The idea of a shift in momentum is illogical

B. Momentum does not exist or it shifts often

C. Because it changes often, its only purpose (as a predictor) is compromised.

D. Therefore, momentum, even if you believe in its existence, is completely useless.

## Trending Discussions

forgot?

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

I already have a Vox Media account!

### Verify Vox Media account

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

We'll email you a reset link.

Try another email?

### Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

### Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.

### Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.