FanPost

Our playoff odds - another perspective


ESPN calculates that we have an 89.7% chance of making the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus says the figure is 88.1%. What does that mean specifically? Here's one way to look at it:

Let's assume we go 10-9 the rest of the way. Then how bad would things have to get for us to miss the playoffs?

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Angels would have to finish their season with a 14-4 run.

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Rays would have to go 15-4.

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Tigers would have to go 17-3

Seems encouraging! Even if one of those teams did enjoy such a miraculous finish to tie us, we'd still be able to avoid playing a tiebreaker game for one of the two Wild Cards if the Yankees OR Orioles finish 10-9 or worse.

On the flip side, if we go 10-9, we could only tie Texas for the division title if the Rangers go 7-12. Seems less likely.

Overall, though, given these scenarios, we have considerable reason to be confident about winning a Wild Card spot.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.

Join Athletics Nation

You must be a member of Athletics Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Athletics Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker