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Our playoff odds - another perspective


ESPN calculates that we have an 89.7% chance of making the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus says the figure is 88.1%. What does that mean specifically? Here's one way to look at it:

Let's assume we go 10-9 the rest of the way. Then how bad would things have to get for us to miss the playoffs?

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Angels would have to finish their season with a 14-4 run.

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Rays would have to go 15-4.

Just to tie us for a Wild Card spot, the Tigers would have to go 17-3

Seems encouraging! Even if one of those teams did enjoy such a miraculous finish to tie us, we'd still be able to avoid playing a tiebreaker game for one of the two Wild Cards if the Yankees OR Orioles finish 10-9 or worse.

On the flip side, if we go 10-9, we could only tie Texas for the division title if the Rangers go 7-12. Seems less likely.

Overall, though, given these scenarios, we have considerable reason to be confident about winning a Wild Card spot.

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