FanPost

An Amateur Analysis Of Brad Peacock

This is my first statistical post, and it could be ridden with mistakes. I'm willing to learn, so if I've grossly misinterpreted something - or if you have any suggestions - just please add 'em in the comments. Go A's!

After the thrilling 14-inning affair the A's and ChiSox, the solid performance of one man seemed to be forgotten: Jarrod Parker, making his first start for the A's came out and threw 6.1 sweet innings, striking out five and walking one. He did give up 7 hits, but no one's perfect, and it was a promising start. Tom Milone has given up 17 hits in 27 innings, and seems to have no problems adjusting to the majors. So all the young pitching studs we got over the offseason are tearing it up, right (ignoring the outlandishly small sample size we have to work with)? Well, no: what about Brad Peacock?

Out of all three, Peacock has the least impressive track record (not that it's bad). Just for starters, let's take a look at their career MiLB stats (for the record, Peacock is 24, Parker is 23 and Milone is 25):

Peacock: 35-39/3.92/607.2 IP/560 K

Parker: 29-19/3.41/366.1 IP/345 K

Milone: 37-22/3.05/516.2 IP/465 K

So, Peacock has more minor league innings of them, but the other two have much better stats in contrast to their IP; more K's, more wins, better ERA's.....

The interesting thing is that Peacock, who was average-decent in early minor league levels has torn up Double-A and Triple-A the last few years. He made his pro debut in 2007, while the other two kicked their quests to the majors in 2008. The truth is, pretty everything points to the fact that Milone and Parker are better pitchers and have more chance of success.

So, is there any place where Peacock at least seems to better? Well, he's allowed 554 hits - that's 8.2 H/9. Milone has an 8.8 H/9 ratio and Parker's is 8.4 H/9. Not much of a lead, but it's something. His FIP has ranged from excellent (1.87 for Harrisburg in 2011) to horrible (5.04 in 2010 for Harrisburg), but overall it's hanging around 3.86; pretty decent. Unfortunately, Parker's career minor league FIP is 2.99 and Milone's is 2.88. Sucks for Peacock.

Here's Peacock's career advanced stat line - It includes both MLB and MiLB stats - courtesy of fangraphs.com):

SeasonTeamK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9K%BB%AVGWHIPBABIPLOB%ERA-FIP-FIP
2007 Nationals (R) 7.78 3.43 2.27 0.23 19.3 % 8.5 % .239 1.35 .298 59.7 % 3.10
2008 Nationals (A-) 6.48 3.24 2.00 0.36 16.8 % 8.4 % .230 1.25 .274 63.6 % 3.48
2008 Nationals (A) 6.15 5.61 1.10 2.14 13.8 % 12.6 % .275 1.75 .280 52.0 % 7.51
2009 Nationals (A) 6.93 2.88 2.41 0.90 17.9 % 7.5 % .267 1.36 .311 73.1 % 4.16
2009 Nationals (A+) 5.10 1.89 2.70 0.76 13.6 % 5.0 % .247 1.17 .271 61.8 % 3.98
2010 Scorpions (R) 12.75 2.25 5.67 0.75 35.4 % 6.3 % .222 1.08 .333 60.3 % 2.20
2010 Nationals (A+) 10.28 2.18 4.72 0.96 26.6 % 5.6 % .263 1.30 .343 64.4 % 3.14
2010 Nationals (AA) 6.98 5.12 1.36 1.16 18.1 % 13.3 % .229 1.42 .257 70.8 % 5.04
2011 Nationals (AA) 11.77 2.10 5.61 0.36 34.3 % 6.1 % .174 0.85 .262 75.9 % 1.87
2011 Nationals (AAA) 9.00 4.50 2.00 0.94 23.5 % 11.8 % .202 1.25 .248 80.0 % 4.18
2011 Nationals 3.00 4.50 0.67 0.00 8.3 % 12.5 % .167 1.08 .184 92.3 % 20 101 3.86
2012 Athletics (AAA) 7.71 2.70 2.86 0.77 20.6 % 7.2 % .236 1.20 .284 61.1 % 3.63
Total - - - 3.00 4.50 0.67 0.00 8.3 % 12.5 % .167 1.08 .184 92.3 % 20 101 3.86

Solid, but unspectacular.

Peacock - unlike Parker and Milone - is a three-pitch pitcher; he relies mainly on his fastball, though not as much as Parker. Does having at least one fewer pitch then the other two put him at a disadvantage? Not necessarily, because there are guys who've had success with just three pitches. However, it may mean that major league hitters will have an easier time hitting him at first since there's less coming at them.

Now, Peacock threw 12 innings for the Nats last year (a September call-up) and gave up 10 ER (he struck out 20 batters). Let's just pull out a few graphs (once again courtesy of fangraphs.com):

BABIP

Brad Peacock BABIP : Season Stats Graph

GB/FB/LD

Brad Peacock GB/FB/LD : Season Stats Graph

The key word here is small sample size: these graphs are the results of 4 games (all starts). There's not much you can say; he's a flyable pitcher who fairs well on balls in play. The high FB ratio could actually be key to his success in the Coliseum, because there's more margin for error in a mammoth stadium like the A's home; deep flyable outs, not homers, and lots of foul balls.

Basically, Peacock seems to be the least spectacular of the three young pitchers: Parker, Milone and Peacock. He seems to have the smallest chance of success, but if he does, then it could result in a nasty 1-2-3 punch in the form of that young threesome. What else can I say? It's early days, so Milone could self-destruct and Peacock could win the Cy Young Award; you never know...

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