Revisiting Your Predictions - Answers Posted to 2012 Pre-Season GOG #00

[Hi folks! Answers are Updated. Let me now if you catch any errors. And please come back and post your scores - comments have been re-opened for this very purpose!--JP]

Originally Posted: March 22, 2012

You know Spring Training is over when ... the first GOG shows up in the AN Fanposts!

For those of you who don't know, GOG is AN's Guess the Outcome Game. Before each series, a volunteer will post a series of questions - Guess Brandon McCarthy's IP / H / BB [2 pts. each], for instance; or, Will Chris Carter get any PAs this series [1 pt.]; or, Name 1 player on each team to hit a HR [2 pts. each] - and everybody makes their best guesses in the Comments. After the series, we tally up, and keep a running score throughout the season.

In last year's GOG 2011 #00 post, Colin offered a nice history of the GOG, and you can see some representative samples by cuppingmaster (2011 #14) or me (2011 #48).

What I love about GOGging is that it splits the difference between statistical expectations and the wild randomness that will always characterize a two-, three-, or four-game series. If you play, you'll learn just how useful statistics like WAR, wOBA, WPA, Game Score, and FIP can be - but you'll also get to guess whether Jemile Weeks gets his 12th three-bagger, or Grant Balfour gets another Save.

Who can play? Everyone! All you need to do is to check the Fanposts for the next GOG after each series ends, and put your guesses in the comments. After the series, check back and score yourself (answers will be posted). We can keep a running tally throughout the season.

What do we need? Volunteers to post new GOGs, and maybe someone to keep track of scores. And you! So, let's get started!


Season predictions - 2012 GOG #00

Every year since I've been playing, we start with a long-ish GOG that will be scored at the very end of the season. It isn't included in the overall scores, but has its own bragging rights. And, you can see just how drastically things can change in six months! (Last year, I guessed Daric Barton as the season fWAR leader, and Hideki Matsui with 21 homers - hahaha!)

Stuff You'll Need

  • Fangraphs A's page is your lifeline!

  • The Questions

    The Competition

    1. What is Oakland's 2012 win total? 94, baby! [5 points exact, 3 points for 92-93, 95-96]

    2. Predict the final AL West rankings - A's, Rangers, Angels, Mariners [2 points for each correct, 8 points possible] Does Houston have a better record than any team in the AL West? No. Welcome to the American League, suckas! [1 point]

    3. Name the Division Winners and Wildcards for both Leagues - Just some fools for us to obliterate on our way to a World Series Championship! [0 pts. each, 0 total]

    The Leaderboards

    4. Last year, Josh Willingham led the team with 29 homers. Who is the 2012 home run leader of the A's? Josh Reddick, most on A’s! How many homers does he hit? 32 HRs [2 points each, 4 total]

    5. Last year, Willingham was also the team leader in OPS (.810) - no other qualifying player even cracked .700, though Weeks and Scott Sizemore did. Who leads the team in OPS this year? Gomes, leads A’s (.868 OPS) How many players crack .700 (minimum PA = 300) - 5 players over .700 OPS (Gomes, Cespedes, Reddick, Smith, Crisp) [2 pts., then 4 pts. 6 total]

    Note: Moss missed minimum 300 by just 4 PAs!

    6. Which pitcher has the most: Innings Pitched? Milone, Most IP (190.0) / Wins? Milone & Parker, Most Wins (13) / K's? Parker, Most K’s (140) [2 pts. each, 6 total]

    Fan Faves

    7. Brandon McCarthy's 2.86 FIP led the American League, and his 1.32 BB/9 was third (after Josh Tomlin and Dan Haren). Most commentators will probably say he is not expected to repeat that performance. Does he have a FIP < (below) 3.25? No, 3.76 FIP / BB/9 < (below) 2.0? Yes, 1.95 BB/9 [2 pts. each, 4 total]

    8. Jemile Weeks was such a highlight of 2011. In less than 100 games, he hit 26 doubles and 8 triples. Guess (+/-2 for each) his Hits / Doubles / Triples / Stolen Bases - 98 Hits (96-100 ok for 3 pts.) / 15 Doubles (13-17 ok) / 8 Triples (6-10 ok) / 16 Stolen Bases (14-18 ok). [3 pts. each, 5 pts. for exact, 20 pts.possible]

    9. Yoenis Cespedes. The Demigod. The mystery. Guess his Plate Appearances (+/-10) / Extra-Base Hits (+/- 5) / Home runs (+/-2) - 540 Plate Appearances (530-550 ok for 3 pts.) / 53 Extra-Base Hits (48-58 ok) / 23 Home runs (21-25 ok) [3 pts. each, 5 for exact, 15 possible]

    Old Friends and "All Stars"

    10. We all miss Gio Gonzalez, but wish him well. Yes or no, does he reach 18 wins? 200 K's? Does he stay under 75 BB's? Is he in the NL Top 10 on the Cy Young Predictor (he was #10 in the AL in 2011) - Yes, reaches 18 wins (21) / Yes, 200 K’s (207) / No, not under 75 BB’s (76) / Yes, in the NL Top 10 Cy Young (at #2) [1 pt. each, 4 total]

    11. Some of us miss Trevordactyl Cahill, and either wish him well or seek vindication for thinking him overhyped and undertalented. Does Cahill manage 10 wins? Does he have a FIP < 4.00? Yes, Manages 10 wins (13) / Yes, FIP < 4.00 (3.85) [1 pt. each, 2 total]

    12. Same goes for Andrew Bailey. In his new pitcher-unfriendly digs, does he manage a WHIP < (below) 1.2? A K/9 > (above) 9.0? A K/BB > (above) 3.0? A HR/9 < (below) .80? How many Saves does he rack up (+/-1) - No, WHIP not < 1.2 (1.89) / No, K/9 not > 9.0 (8.22) / No, K/BB not > 3.0 (1.75) / No, HR/9 not < .80 (1.17) / 6 Saves (5-7 ok) [1 pt. each, then 2 pts., 6 total]

    13. And there went Josh Willingham. Although not an Athletic any longer, does Josh lead all Athletics in HRs? In RBIs? Yes, leads all Athletics in HRs (35) / And in RBIs (110) [2 pts. each, 4 total]

    Changing Faces

    14. First off, who the heck is even gonna be on the A's roster? Name the 3 pitchers who get the most Game Starts? Most Starts: Milone (31), Parker (29), Colon (24) Which of the outfielders - Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp, Collin Cowgill, Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes, Manny Ramirez, Chris Carter, Jermaine Mitchell - get more than 350 PAs (DH PAs included, so long as they do not exceed 80% of the total PAs for that player)? 350 PA, Reddick (673), Cespedes (540), Crisp (508), Smith (441) [1 pt. each for SP; 2 pts. each for OF, but minus (-) 2 pts. for wrong guesses, maybe 15 possible points?]

    15. Name two players who drop off the Opening Day 40-man roster by July 31, by trade or release or priesthood or whatever - "none" is an acceptable answer for one or both - (I am sort of sure that each of these were on the 40-man roster) Brandon Allen (4/9), Dallas Braden (4/22), Rich Thompson (4/25), Luke Hughes (4/30), Joey Devine (5/15), Neil Wagner (5/28/12), Kila Ka'aihue (6/6), Andrew Carignan (6/9), Danny Farquhar (6/24), Brian Fuentes (7/3), Fautino de los Santos (7/29) [2 pts. each, 4 pts. total]

    16. Here's a question lifted from last year: How many games (+/-2) does Chris Carter play in the Majors this year? (Hint: Last Year's answer was 15.) 67 games (65-69 ok) [3 pts., 5 pts. if exact]

    17. And we all want to know: How many games does Manny Ramirez play for the A's? Zero! [2 pts. if the correct answer is "0", 5 pts. if not]


    18. We will play a lot of games against the Angels, newly featuring Albert Pujols: 19, by my count. How many HRs does Albert crush off of A's pitchers? 2 HRs / How many XBH? 10 XBH [2 pts. each, 4 pts. each]

    19. Against the Yankees, 10 games. How many do we win? 5 Wins. [5 pts.]

    San Jose, here we come?

    20. Last year, the A's were last in the Majors with a total home attendance of 1,476,792. Do they beat this number in 2012 (and by "beat" I mean "exceed")? Yes, attendance > 2011 (1,679,013) / Are they last in the Majors again? Not last in ML (27th) / Do the A's have a MLB-sanctioned commitment to move to San Jose by the last day of the regular season? No confirmed move to San Jose! [1 pt. each, then 3 pts., 5 total]

    That's it! Let me know if you can volunteer to create a GOG sometime soon. And get ready to be really familiar with the Seattle M's.

    Series 1: Seattle, March 28-29 - paris (posted)

    2. Seattle, April 6-7

    3. Kansas City, April 9-11 - cuppingmaster

    4. Seattle, April 13-15

    5. L.A. Angels, April 16-19

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