Tom Milone, by the numbers: Maddux, Glavine, Halladay, Radke...
by LunaCI on Feb 9, 2012 1:11 AM PST
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PrintTom Milone seemed like an underrated player to me...
So, I dug into his BB/SO and BB/9 numbers and looked for some comparables to see just how underrated he might be.
Some interesting results...
For starters, here's Tom Milone's career minor league #s for SO/BB, SO/9 and WHIP:
Tom Milone, Minor League (IP: 516.2)
SO/BB: 5.54
SO/9: 8.1
WHIP: 1.140
Now, here's another pitcher's minor league career numbers:
Pitcher X, Minor League (IP: 491.1)
SO/BB: 2.06
S0/9: 5.7
WHIP: 1.185
Pitcher X was, of course, Greg Maddux.
Now, Maddux's Major League numbers:
Greg Maddux, Major League
SO/BB: 3.37
S0/9: 6.1
WHIP: 1.143
For some more minor league fun, here's the minor league numbers for Tom Glavine and Roy Halladay:
Tom Glavine Minor League (561 IP)
SO/BB: 1.78
S0/9: 7.0
WHIP: 1.285
Roy Halladay Minor League (638 IP)
SO/BB: 2.00
S0/9: 5.9
WHIP: 1.312
And Major League:
Tom Glavine Major League
SO/BB: 1.74
S0/9: 5.3
WHIP: 1.314
Roy Halladay Major League
SO/BB: 3.72
S0/9: 6.9
WHIP: 1.168
So Tom Milone's career minor league 5.54 SO/BB shatters everyone else's, and his 8.1 SO/9 is also better than all of the above. His Minor league ERA is 3.05, so it's not like that hasn't been there, either.
To put those stats in perspective...
The current active leaders in SO/BB are Dan Haren and Mariano Rivera, each with 4.04. The all-time leaders are Tommy Bond with 4.46 (1800's pitcher), Curt Schilling with 4.38, and Pedro Martinez with 4.15. No one else has better than 4 career.
Milone's BB/9 rate in the minors has been 1.50. The current Major League active leader is Carlos Silva with 1.73, followed by Roy Halladay with 1.85 and Dan Haren with 1.89.
One pitcher I found does outdo Milone's Minor League numbers.
Stephen Strasburg (75 minor league IP):
SO/BB: 5.88
S0/9: 11.2
WHIP: 0.806
So Milone, throwing 87 MPH or so, has a SO/BB almost that of Strasburg's, and better than Maddux's by a good margin.
To be fair...here's Brad Radke's minor league numbers:
Brad Radke Minor League (581 IP)
SO/BB: 3.42
S0/9: 7.0
WHIP: 1.149
ERA: 3.20
Similar WHIP and SO/9, though Milone had a better SO/BB by a good chunk. Radke is, it appears, the <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=mlb&tcid=mm_mlb_stats#sectionType=sp&playerType=QUALIFIER&statType=pitching&page_type=SortablePlayer&season=&season_type=ALL&sportCode='mlb'&league_code='MLB'&split=&team_id=&active_sw=&game_type='R'&position='1'&sortOrder='asc'&sortColumn=bb_9&results=&page=1&perPage=50&timeframe=&extended=2&last_x_days=&ts=1328777247464&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching" target="new">modern career leader in BB/9 at 1.69.</a>
So, going by these numbers, it seems Milone is, ah, a wee bit underrated? XD His numbers are pretty off the charts compared to other soft throwers like Glavine or Maddux. Even if his Major League numbers are like a -50% dropoff of his minor league stats, he still has the makings of a top-notch pickup.
What do you guys think? Any other comparables to take a look at?
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Well done.
Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, and Tom Milone all have nearly identical minor league numbers. They are not even remotely similar pitchers. Milone is much closer to Blanton than to Haren, because Haren coupled his outstanding control with an excellent splitter that can put MLB hitters away. Blanton never really found an out pitch and thus has become a 4th starter at best, the type of guy who becomes a long reliever if your team makes it to the playoffs.
In the scouting reports I’ve read and highlights I’ve watched of Milone, he doesn’t throw hard at all and has no out pitch. Dallas Braden, another soft-tossing lefty, had much higher K-rates in the minors but has only been able to muster middling K-rates in the majors with 3rd starter upside. That’s what Milone is (he’s no Halladay or Glavine).
I think realistic peripherals for Milone in 2012 are around 9.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9. Maybe a 4.10 ERA and 2 WAR.
Career minor league numbers:
Haren: 8.8 K, 1.9 BB, 8.5 H, 3.15 ERA 474 IP
Blanton: 8.3 K, 1.7 BB, 8.6 H, 3.35 ERA 376 IP
Milone: 8.5 K, 1.5 BB, 8.8 H, 3.05 ERA 516 IP
All 3 drafted out of college, Blanton in the first, Haren in the second, and Milone in the tenth. I’d be shocked if he can ever outproduce Dalls Braden’s 2009 numbers.
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
Using his MILB number is a bit misleading IMO
His K/9 in AAA is so much better than it was in A ball that it’s kinda silly to use them. Haren did the same thing his second time in AAA, but Milone just seems to get better every time he gets promoted (sort of an anti-Chris Carter).
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Chris Carter, on the other hand,
does sell jeans.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
What I wonder is whether or not Milone can still learn a putaway pitch like a splitter?
Probably not (or he would have), but if you take what he already brings (Blanton/Radke/Slowey stuff), and add a “Haren” element like a good splitter, Milone could be devastating.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes, if Tom Milone can develop Dan Haren's splitter,
which is one of the 20 most devastating pitches anybody on the planet can throw, and then learn maintain his impeccable control with it, then he too can be elite.
Similarly, all I had to do to get in to Stanford out of high school was get a perfect score on the SAT.
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 5:02 PM PST up reply actions
Andy from the Office has
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Chris from Soundgarden?
I went to a show and heard him. Is that the same?
I guess some people just don't like "dreaming" because it's "not realistic enough"
To each his/her own. My point was that if you take Josh Outman and add a given pitch, he’s still a guy with average control. Or if you take Graham Godfrey and add better control, he’s still a guy with fringey pitches.
But if Milone picked up the feel of a splitter, like he has for the changeup — kind of like Russ Springer showing Braden the cutter and Braden taking to it right away, or Romanick changing McCarthy’s spine angle and McCarthy being able to reinvent himself almost overnight — then with the control, command, and changeup Milone already has he really could be something special. Unlikely, but perfectly fun to ponder.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's fine to ponder about, but it's not really helpful,
especially when you say, “If Milone picked up the feel of a splitter, like he has for a changeup.” Milone’s change-up is above average, with plus control. To me, it’s the same as saying, “Dwight Howard is excellent in the low-post. If he could learn to shoot three-pointers, he’d be really, really good.”
Or maybe this strikes closer to home: “Bobby Crosby has excellent tools. Just think if he learns to lay off that low, outside slider.”
I suppose it’s possible that Milone could learn an out-pitch (though it’s considerably more difficult to throw any out-pitch when it’s coming in that much slower than 80 MPH), but it doesn’t do us any good when we’re projecting/ranking/scouting him. It’s just for hoping.
I get your point.
You’re saying that one thing is plausible and the other isn’t so much. That’s true.
But when you set the standard as “not really helpful”, I don’t see that pondering more plausible things are “helpful” in any way either. It’s not like we’re actually doing anything here besides discussing, so there’s no basis for a utilitarian standard that objectively puts practical speculation above crazy speculation. It’s just a question of what you prefer to discuss.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Are you saying that we have no control over the management of the team?
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Believe it or not, Haren's splitter really isn't that nasty of a pitch. At least not anymore.
FanGraphs has about 180 (weighted) pitches that were more valuable than Haren’s splitter last season. Of course, it’s one season—but Haren’s bread and butter seems to be his cutter these days.
Not that it negates your point. As I said elsewhere in the thread in response to Nico, I agree that it’s not really a helpful exercise. I just thought it was interesting.
He apparently already has one - 9.69 k/9 in AAA
don’t let his overall minor league numbers fool you. He’s a strikeout pitcher. Just not a traditional one.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Sorry that's 9.4 k/9
9.69 is his k/bb, which is also somewhat awesome.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
That's a good rate
but I’m still hard pressed to think of any soft-tossing lefties who are able to put up 6+ K/9 in the majors, regardless of their AAA numbers. Dallas Braden had similar K-rates in AAA and isn’t a strikeout pitcher in the majors. The soft-tossing lefty types that Milone’s repertoire is similar to (Mark Buehrle, Dallas Braden, etc.) generally have very good changeups and good control, but aren’t big time strikeout pitchers.
I think he can be good, but it’s really tough to strike Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano out when you throw 86 mph. You’d better have Barry Zito’s 2002 curveball if you wanna be anything more than a 3rd starter with that kind of fastball.
First off, Mark Buehrle is an excellent pitcher
who is more than a “#3 guy” in his career. Would that Tom Milone could duplicate Buehrle’s career numbers!
Also, it’s tough to strike out Pujols and Cano, period. However, if you get them out on their front foot, can spot a fastball on the inside corner to tie them up, can sink the ball to keep it on the ground, you can still get them out.
Finally, I don’t think many, if any, on here who are bullish on Milone are saying he’ll be more than a #3 starter. A #3 starter is a very valuable pitcher, and so Milone doesn’t have to be anything more than that in order to be a very valuable pitcher.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Buehrle, as a pitcher, is pretty number 3.
He’s had a few 1/2 years, but overall he’s been a number 3. He benefits slightly from his outstanding defense, and he accumulates WAR thanks to his ridiculous durability. 200 innings of Buehrle is usually good for around 3.5 WAR, which is what a good team would want out of its 3rd starter. But he usually goes 220+, which is absurd for as long as he’s done it. And Mark Buehrle is a pretty unique guy.
My point here isn’t to shit on Tom Milone or his ability. He’s a 10th round pick who throws 86 mph who’s poised to be an effective big leaguer. I’m sure he’s a very impressive individual. Bully for him, I say, and I’m sure I’ll enjoy watching him in the coming year(s). My point, especially with my Blanton/Haren/Milone comparisons are that MiLB rate stats, while relevant, have their shortcomings.
by BWH on Feb 11, 2012 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
ted lilly, chris capuano and chris narveson are 3 who did it last year
fangraphs actually did an interesting article on this very topic
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tom-milone-and-the-whole-velocity-thing/
Milone
I like what Milone can bring, I think that he is undervalued because of his perceived lack of “stuff” and velocity. I could care less about those things, if he can come in and provide some WAR, then Im happy
Well you should start to care about "stuff" and velocity
because MLB quality hitters tend to be good at tagging guys who don’t possess it.
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Meh, depends on what you mean by "stuff"
Killer command, and a really good changeup, are often overlooked in the “stuff” conversation in favor of velocity, sharp slider/curve (“electric stuff”), but command and deception can take you a long way in the big leagues.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Stuff = Pitches that major leaguers swing and miss at.
If you want to know what it looks like, it looks like Barry Zito’s curve in 2001, or Dan Haren’s splitter in 2007. If you want to know what it doesn’t look like, it’s Joe Blanton.
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 4:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Like Keith Foulke's changeup?
Even going by your (totally arbitrary) definition of “stuff,” my point is that a good enough changeup is a swing-and-miss pitch. And great command helps set up whatever stuff you have so that it becomes “swing and miss” stuff more often.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't know that my definition of stuff is "arbitrary"
considering it’s pretty easy to find a guy’s swing-and-miss percentage (which was astronomical for Dan Haren in his brief regular season and playoff appearances for the 2003/2004 Cardinals). And Keith Foulke was a 2-pitch pitcher, which is fine when you’re a reliever. Starters, however, need multiple ways to get guys out because they’re facing a lineup 3 or 4 times through.
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
It's only arbitrary in that not everyone
would equate “stuff” to “swing and miss pitches” (or percentage). It’s certainly one way, but it’s not by any means the only one or one that is “widely accepted”. For example, pitchers with great velocity but poor movement on their fastball are often said to have good “stuff” but also often struggle to get swing-throughs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
For the record
above, I projected 2012 Tom Milone to put up 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and a roughly league average ERA. I projected his peak to be a full season of 2010 Dallas Braden (5.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.50 ERA). What on Earth are you expecting from Tom Milone?
by BWH on Feb 9, 2012 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
Me? I'm hoping for about "A healthy Dallas Braden."
Which is quite a good pitcher. Call it a “solid #3”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That'd be GREAT
shit – a solid #4 starter would be a steal for a guy who so many analysts assumed was just a throw in.
if he is anywhere near Braden's level that would be fantastic
even later stage moyer would be fine.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 10, 2012 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
The first person I thought of as a comparable was Jeff Francis.
Minors:
K/BB: 4.77
K/9: 10
BB/9: 2.1
WHIP: 1.000
ERA: 2.57
Majors:
K/BB: 2.13
K/9: 5.9
BB/9: 2.8
WHIP: 1.430
ERA: 4.78
I'd be quite happy if Milone turns into Jeff Francis
Or ANY of the above comps. I also wouldn’t be totally surprised if he turns into John Halama. However – I will agree that he is potentially very undervalued, and if he gives us a few seasons of “healthy Dallas Braden” or even “Joe Blanton Circa 2005-2008” level production, he will be a total steal.
I see what you guys are saying with the "out pitch" stuff
and the fact that MLB hitters will eat him up. Here’s a conundrum though. If better hitters will really destroy Milone, then why do his K/9 and K/BB numbers get better at every level? His K/9 has gone up each of the last three years (and pretty significantly too) from 6.3 to 9.4, while his BB/9 have dropped from 2.14 to .97. Better hitters don’t appear to hit him better.
My guess, he’s somewhere between Haren and Blanton. An absolute steal if that turns out.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Good post
But I still don’t think the Major League pitchers you compared him to are comparable. A lot of Major League pitchers are throwers that turn into pitchers during their time in the minor leagues. Their numbers are going to reflect learning.
Milone’s guy who’s always been a pitcher and never been a thrower. I think he should be our 5 starter.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Feb 10, 2012 2:00 PM PST reply actions
Maddux, FWIW
was not a “soft thrower”, as you indicated above, when he was in the minors and in the first part of his major league career. He always had a ton of movement on his pitches, but his fastball was in the low 90’s and he could reach back for a little more if he needed to, though that wasn’t really his style. Stuff wise, he was much more comparable to Dan Haren or a young Tim Hudson than Glavine or Milone.
Just wondering: Do you think Milone might read this thread?
Do you think this might be the most concentrated conversation about the guy, in a public space, ever? Or do you think this has happened on, say, a MiLB blog or a Propsects or Draft position list?
Anyway, just in case: “Hi Tom! We want you to kick ass like Dallas and be our hot new #3 or #4! Good luck at camp!”
by paris7 on Feb 10, 2012 7:41 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
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