A Graphic Look at the A's Prospect List Consensus
by David Fung on Feb 6, 2012 3:00 PM PST
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Before the Cahill/Gonzalez/Bailey trades this offseason, we were looking at a middle-of-the-pack farm system. Thanks to the top notch pitching we traded away, Billy Beane restocked the farm, and suddenly moved the slider to win a few years away from now. As you can see, last year's Baseball America #1 prospect Grant Green has been bumped down to the second half of this list due to new arrivals of Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock and A.J. Cole (also due to Green's shift from SS to OF).
The AN community has voted Jarrod Parker and Michael Choice at #1 and #2 in our Community Prospect list. The consensus list tallies 9 of these top prospect lists and really doesn't show too many surprises. Each prospect was assigned points based off of how they placed (#1: 10 points, #2: 9 points, etc). I've listed all the sources after the jump.
Does this match up to what you expected, or do you think there's some guys that may be more deserving of top 10 spots?
Prospects #11-15 shook out like this:
#11 OF Michael Taylor
#12 OF Jermaine Mitchell
#13 RHP Faustino De Los Santos
#14 SS Yordy Cabrera
#15 OF Aaron Shipman
New A's blog, A's Farm, did a pretty good consensus breakdown this weekend, while with similar results, includes some notes on each with ETA.
Here's the full list of prospect lists that the graphic was sourced from:
-Baseball Prospectus
-Baseball America
-Minor League Ball
-Perfect Game
-Top Prospect Alert
-Baseball Prospect Nation
-Seedlings to Stars (Preview list)
-Jonathan Mayo on MLB.com
Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.
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DLS
still has prospect status? that surprises me, i woulda thought he’d exceeded the amount of necessary days to be on the 25 man roster.
i chose aaron shipman, high ceiling, high obp last year.
Snoochies
Fautino is, as far as I know, no longer considered a "prospect"
(And I am even more sure that his first name does not contain an “s”.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Faustino
Played Bud Bundy on Married With Children. ; )
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
Does he get to make a special deal? Head for the crossroads?
Not my worry if he wants to trade a little eternal damnation for 120 saves over the next three years.
Hmm...you come up with Goethe, I come up with a Fox sitcom.
One of us is a very shallow person, and that person is me.
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
If at Faust you don't succeed...
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i you would most likely be wrong then
i’ve seen it spelled both ways but i believe most improperly drop the “s”
No, it's definitely "Fautino"
It’s only spelled with an ‘s’ when someone misspells it because it “seems like there should be an ‘s’ in it”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No disrespect, but what's the point of this image?
It doesn’t tell me anything more than a table would. It doesn’t even have any special data in it, like maybe the average slotted position to the first decimal based on each of the sources, or even your point system. It just seems like it’s a graphic for the sake of making a graphic, when the data could be represented in a better format, or the format could be used to show better data.
by LoneStranger on Feb 6, 2012 3:46 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
The colors are pretty...
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was an idiot.
Could have used the colors
to designate Pitcher or Position player
See the ball, hit the ball.
Hey thanks for mentioning my list
at A’s Farm. We actually got the exact same results at #1-8. Then we’ve got Milone at #9, Taylor at #10, and Cowgill actually came in at #11 – but it’s pretty arbitrary at that point. Man, I really like our Top 5 prospects though. I think those guys are as can’t miss as it gets. I’d be very surprised if they’re not all contributing in a big way on the major league roster in a couple years. Can’t wait to see Parker, Peacock, Gray and Cole striking out an (hopefully) aging Albert Pujols!
Feel free to visit my blog focused on the future A’s down on the farm: http://athleticsfarm.com
"Can't miss" = "Could very well miss..."
There ain’t no way of knowin’. A few years ago Chris Carter was “can’t miss”.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was an idiot.
"can't miss as it gets"
Does anyone have info on top pitching prospects vs. top hitting prospects success rates in the majors?
Feel free to visit my blog focused on the future A’s down on the farm: http://athleticsfarm.com
I was just being a sarcastic know-it-all...
I guess I’ve just been a little cynical ever since Van Poppel.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was an idiot.
Van Poppel, Dressendorfer, Zancanaro et al
Still curious if anyone’s got any hard stats on % of top minor league pitching prospects who succeed in the majors as opposed to top minor league hitting prospects who succeed – not % of draftees who succeed, but top prospects who’ve actually got game time in the minors.
Feel free to visit my blog focused on the future A’s down on the farm: http://athleticsfarm.com
None of the above, for the poll.
I would dramatically rearrange the order, but those 10 are the same as my 10.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Very nice
The only website’s opinion you’re missing there is Bullpen Banter.
/shameless self plug
Not just athletes, Athletics.
they did an updated list
after yu darvish signed. all the teams that needed updating were thrown into one thread
Snoochies
Draft order updated
I guess the draft order is preety much set, minus a few type B’s
A’s draft at
11
34
47
61
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2612924.html
Mark Ellis netted a type B pick
I wish that could have been included as part of the trade, i.e. we’ll take your worthless minor league relief pitcher plus the type B pick that Ellis is going to yield.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 6, 2012 6:04 PM PST up reply actions
Also...this was copied and pasted from your link
I guess that’s how much DSL stats matter…
Based on the Athletics Top 30 Prospects list in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, and your updated Top 10 online, the highest that Baseball America possibly could have ranked outfielder Vicmal de la Cruz in the system is 35th. He’s easily a Top 20 guy in that system, isn’t he? How could you prospect gurus miss that one?
Todd Morgan
San Francisco
Jim Shonerd, who wrote our A’s Top 30, considered de la Cruz for the Top 30 but ultimately decided it was a little early to run him up the list. I agree with that decision. De la Cruz has some of the best upside in the Oakland system, as a center fielder with hitting ability and speed, but he’s also an 18-year-old who’s light years away from the majors.
De la Cruz hit .318/.438/.453 last year in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League. That’s a fine pro debut, and at the same time, DSL stats are slightly more meaningful than high school stats. It’s very rare for us to rank a player in a foreign Rookie league on a Top 30, as we prefer to judge prospects against more meaningful competition.
Using the grading system we introduced in the Handbook, I’d give de la Cruz a 50/Extreme, which would put him in contention for one of the final spots on the Top 30. If he has a strong U.S. debut in 2012, I’m sure he’ll fit in the middle of next year’s Top 30.
I have no idea what 50/Extreme means.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 6, 2012 6:12 PM PST up reply actions
This is ludicrous logic
Yes, the DSL is a very low level of pitching/competition, and yes, it maybe comparable or only slightly ahead of very good high school divisions in the states, BUT they rank prospects ALL the time that were drafted out of high school and either didn’t play because they signed late or a minor injury or concerns with fatigue etc.
Bubba Starling is ranked as KC’s #2 overall prospect – he’s never played professional ball as far as I can tell, the highest level he’s played at is High School. So if De La Cruz played in a league whose stats are
slightly more meaningful than high school statshow is he not considered for a higher ranking despite the fact that there are multiple high school prospects that are on various other club’s top 10’s. It seems like a clear bias against international prospects that don’t have big name recognition.
That is a great point...I didn't really think of it that way.
I thought the guy was full of shit with the 50→>EXTREME!! ranking (seriously wtf does that mean?) but yes, he does indeed illustrate that he is full of shit pretty clearly.
As you rightly point out, if DSL stats are more meaningful than high school…then we should be even more impressed that he dominated that league, not less.
His next sentence kind of says it all
It’s very rare for us to rank a player in a foreign Rookie league on a Top 30, as we prefer to judge prospects against more meaningful competition.
But they are fine judging prospects against HS competition all the time. I wonder if he’s even read a real scouting report on the guy or watched some video.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 9, 2012 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Where's the beef?
To me the underlying problem for the A’s is that they are coming up way short in the area where, given their perennial financial situation, it is paramount that they excel — the draft. Their drafts have been mediocre in the post-Moneyball era.
Until they restocked their farm system this winter by trading the three young All-Stars for several prospects, their organization was rated near the bottom. Even now with the influx of new prospects in the system, the reports I have seen don’t have them in the top 10 in baseball.
It could be these independent judges of talent are wrong and the A’s are right. But as far as those prospects who have come up in recent years, it would appear that the system simply has not born enough fruit. This time three years ago, true, the A’s prospects were rated second only to the Rangers’, but that high ranking was helped much by the prospects who came in the trades of Haren, Swisher, Harden and Blanton in the 2007 offseason and during the 2008 season. And we’re still waiting for those ships to come in.
Overall, in looking at Oakland’s drafts since the 2002 Moneyball draft, I have to ask this: Where’s the beef.?
by nativetexanasfan on Feb 8, 2012 1:43 PM PST reply actions
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