Community Prospect List #3
by Zonis on Feb 5, 2012 6:43 PM PST
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Community Prospect List:
#1: Jarrod Parker, RHP
#2: Michael Choice, CF
There are about 11 or so weeks until Opening Day, so we will be doing one voting thread per week until the season starts. So get ready, set and VOTE!
The Poll Option won the vote last week, so we will be going with that from now on. Please no ballot stuffing, though ;)
Please add suggestions below for players to be added to next week's poll. If you agree with a suggestion, please comment and rec it to make it more visible.
Happy voting!
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I cant vote becuz mobile
I vote Sonny Gray. I think he’s underrated because of his size like Lincecusm and Huddy.
by gambler on Feb 5, 2012 7:24 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Im not saying he is
Just saying he’s #3 in my opinion. He would have been drafted higher if he was 6’4"
by gambler on Feb 5, 2012 10:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
agree that hes underrated
there’s a ton of movement on his fastball and curve is his out pitch. change up development is key, and if it can be average hes at least a midrotation starter.
by NRC on Feb 6, 2012 8:37 AM PST up reply actions
I expect Gray
to be on the fast track to the A’s ala the Big Three of years gone by; and would expect a September call-up even this year; and in the rotation sometime in 2013.
I voted Peacock for the same reason I'd vote Cowgill high:
If likelihood of making it to the big leagues is a factor, then Peacock and Cowgill, both ready as soon as perhaps April, 2012, are near locks. Plus, of course, Peacock has the potential to be quite good. Given the volatility with pitchers, just the fact that Gray is at AA and Peacock has already spent a season at AAA, put Peacock ahead in my book.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't understand this logic.
Year after year, when the A’s sign Matt Carson, there’s a near-100% chance that he’ll make it to the majors at some point, but that doesn’t mean he’s anything more than a fifth or sixth outfielder. If you think like this, considering the sky-high flameout rate of prospects, your top ten prospect lists would almost exclusively come from your AA and AAA teams since they’re closer to the majors.
Cole had better numbers at a younger age at the same level. He’s also taller, more projectable, and comes with a superior draft pedigree and a way higher ceiling. Why discount him because he’s slated for high-A next year? I understand that you’re factoring in the likelihood that next year some terrible injury will befall Cole before he makes it to Oakland, but the same thing could happen to Peacock and all the A’s get is a half-season of innings.
I’ll take youth, size, and ceiling.
I like youth and ceiling too, personally.
What I was saying is that my understanding is when you’re ranking prospects, their likelihood of “making the big leagues and having some success” is supposed to be part of the consideration.
So a guy like Cowgill, who is very unlikely to be a star but very likely to be a “good 4th OFer for a while,” or Tom Milone, whom no one thinks will be an ace but most believe will be resilient enough to pitch an appreciable number of big league innings, gets some points ahead of A.J. Cole, who is far likelier to be an all-star but also far likelier to completely flame out and never make it at all.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This actually goes more to your translation of
Who is the #3 Prospect?
To some it means, “who is more sure to make a solid big league contribution?” To others, it means “who is more talented?” I think most people when voting factor in both of these. Obviously someone who is very talented (i.e. potential all-star) and close to the bigs (i.e. Parker) is going to win in most of these situations.
Of course some players who are farther away (like Choice or Cole) will get the nod simply because of their draft pedigree, their tools, and their dominance of lower levels.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 6, 2012 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
That's what I was speaking to
I like Gray’s ceiling a bit more than Peacock’s, but I have to like Peacock’s chances of getting to display his stuff in the big leagues better, since he has a shot right out of spring training or soon after, while Gray has a whole year or more to get injured.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Voted for Peacock
I like the fastball/curveball combo and I think the improvement in his K rate over the last couple seasons is for real. Peacock is just about big league ready and still has decent upside.
I was tempted to go with Sonny Gray who I really like, I think his repertoire is comparable to Peacock and might even be slightly better. Peacock has more of a track record though, which is what eventually swayed me in his direction.
Poll options.
I suggest taking Green and Carter off the poll (assuming they don’t win) and adding Norris and Milone.
by WheatBread on Feb 5, 2012 8:56 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Agree
Norris is, IMO, a pretty legit prospect (exciting to me as a Tettleton/Tenace/Napoli upside player) and Milone is almost assured of making the 2012 rotation, with a chance to be a “total hidden gem”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I agree with this
Green and Carter shouldn’t be considered for this high.
This is the direction I would go
Although there seems to be some early support for Green, so while I’m not to keen on him I think he should stay on the poll if he stays above 10% on this vote. But personally I have Norris, Milone, and Cowgill all above Carter and Green so I wouldn’t mind seeing them get on the poll.
I partly agree
drop Carter and add Norris and Milone, but keep Green.
by robertmelvin on Feb 6, 2012 1:56 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm already voting for Milone, and
I think a few others will join me for the #4 slot.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
If a few is 3,
which I believe it literally is, then yes. A few will join you. I think you’re crazy for ranking him higher than six, which is where I will be (correctly) ranking him.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Ranking prospects is subjective.
iglew is by no means incorrect in wherever he ranks him. You may not agree with him but that doesn’t mean the “You’re crazy!” argument will fly. If you want to disagree, make a coherent argument for somebody else being higher than Milone.
Sorry I guess the sarcasm didn't come through over the internet
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
I actually really like Milone
I see him having a very outside shot of being a Cliff Lee type, and more probably a Joe Blanton. I don’t remember who did that comp, but it was pretty good.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
I take "You're crazy"
as just a colorful way of saying “I respectfully disagree”.
I’m well aware that my opinion is a minority one. I actually think the AN community values Milone a lot more than the baseball prospect-watching community at large does. And I personally like Milone more than the AN community at large does, so go figure.
I think he needs to be on the poll list by #5. For now, and next time too, I’m content to vote “other” if it’s given as an option.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
If nothing else, he should certainly be on the list
Vote for him that high or don’t, but he is going to be a big league starting pitcher with a chance to be very good if he can replicate his minor league resume.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
On reflection, I now think I would prefer Milone NOT on the list for #4.
In spite of my personal preference, it’s clear he’s a fringey choice at #4. If he’s on the list, then he’ll get three or four votes, which will look skimpy next to the other candidates. That might lead Zonis to think, “Huh, this guy is clearly not ready yet,” and take him OFF the list for #5. And #5 is where I’d really like to see him, as a sort of preview for #6, which is where I think he’ll actually get significant votes.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Agreed.
I would certainly start thinking about voting for him by #4/5. He certainly deserves to be on there by then.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
We only need to drop one, since one will take the place of #3 winner
I see all three hitters as close and am not sure who to drop. Maybe the worst in this poll.
by Rio on Feb 7, 2012 5:42 AM PST up reply actions
I see Norris as being ahead of the other two.
After this poll I would drop Green and Carter and then have Cowgill take the remaining spot. I do agree with the above poster though: If Green (or anyone) as a decent amount of the overall vote (~10% or so), then he should stay on.
Cole, by a fairly wide margin.
Size, “projectability,” results, youth, and ceiling. The only thing he doesn’t edge out other candidates is draft pedigree, where Gray has him edged slightly. (Cole would have been drafted much higher without his strong college commitment). I think he gets undersold, for whatever reasons.
As prospects, I don’t really see that much of a difference between him and Taijuan Walker, who frequently gets top twenty overall nods. I’d give Walker the edge, but not seventy spots like Mayo did.
I agree
I like Cole a lot. I like all of the A’s top 5 pitching prospects a lot, but I have him behind Parker and ahead of Gray, Milone, and Peacock, in that order.
You forgot the "other (specify in comments)" option.
That would have been my choice. I’m getting an early start on the Tom Milone bandwagon.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Interesting that he's not a higher rated prospect in general
If you just look at his stats, focusing on the most predictive ones (K/BB ratio, K/9 IP rate) all Milone has done is look like a “keeper”. As he’s moved up the minor leagues, at times where many prospects stall or hit a wall he has just thrived more.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
There's a stigma attached to guys that throw as soft as he does.
Just like there is one attached to RHH first baseman and tiny outfielders. The problem is that these aren’t really blind stereotypes. There is real cause for concern that major league hitters won’t have a problem discerning between his fastball and change-up because they’re quick enough to react to both of them.
That said, when it came out that Washington wanted Gonzalez, Milone is one guy that I coveted. There’s an outside chance that he turns in to 2011 Brandon McCarthy, but a much, much higher possibility that he makes a living as average—still a valuable player.
What I think distinguishes Milone
is that not only does he show Bob Tewksbury-like BB rates, but unlike most “soft-tossers” and “strike throwing machines,” Milone has maintained high K-rates all the way through the minors. That’s unusual.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
This is the catch with the poll option
The other versions allow for unlimited candidates, while the poll has a limit.
Rec would allow for multiple votes, +1 is for 1, while poll is a set choice.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
You just need one line item for "other".
A voter who wishes to elaborate can do so in the comments, or not.
For actual scoring, it hardly matters, since anyone in the “other” category isn’t going to win regardless. It just gives a button to push for anyone who prefers a guy not on the list. Having “other” as a choice makes it so you don’t have to include a lot of extra names in order to enfranchise everyone.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
What the heck are green or carter doing on the list this early?
What, is Brad Kilby going to show up on there by the time we vote for #5???
He ranked 8th
behind such notables as Ian Krol and Adrian Cardenas. Looking back at it does not make us look like good talent evaluators.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Sorry actually 9th
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
I don't think we look that bad.
The only one we really muffed was Weeks. As for the rest, sure, you can complain that the other nine guys in our top ten did nothing — but who would you pick instead? No other prospects did anything for the A’s either. They all sucked (except Weeks).
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Even with Weeks, it was more because he had been injured/not played much since being drafted
For the rest, it was more of a ‘we have no prospects’ thing outside the top 3. Green kind of floundered a bit from a high year, Carter has not lived up to his potential, but hey, Choice is Choice.
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
Yeah, that's not a particularly bad list, even in hindsight.
Everybody on AN knew Weeks had tons of talent, but he looked like another always-injured Crosby type. You can make a case for him now, but I still would have ranked him behind guys who had better, healthier (Parker, Green) seasons in 2010.
AN even ranked him higher than Sickels, who wrote,
“Grade C+: He’s never healthy, so it is hard to know exactly what kind of player he really can be.”
Not sure if many of you saw this but...
here’s a cool link that wcmori put up as a FanShot a few days ago.
It’s a compiled A’s prospect top 10 list.
At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was an idiot.
That was nice as it pulled from 6 different prospect lists.
I somehow just think (or hope? pray?) that Carter is too good of a hitter to look as miserable as he has. I really hope he gets at least 100-150 consistent AB’s (starting 3-5 games a week minimum) to start the season. I guess he’ll probably have to mash in spring training to even have a hope of earning that kind of playing time…hopefully he does.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 6, 2012 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Voted for Gray
I really think his stuff is electic. He was considered a top 10 pick in a loaded draft (one scouting report gave him a chance for top 5). The biggest knock on him are his size and that is something that bothers me little with prospects.
vs Peacock: I think they have comparable stuff. I like Gray’s a little more. Peacock struggled in his AAA time. Thats enough to knock him down for me.
vs Cole: From reports his secondary pitches sound very raw. Even with the good results, it’s too much potential and projection for me to rank him higher than Gray.
I see all three as pretty close, with Gray in front of Cole then Peacock.
Concur
I can see putting Parker at the top of the pitcher’s list, and I can see the argument for Cole’s projectability.
But I think people undersell Gray, and I think he’s a stud. I’m more confident in Gray than I am in Peacock.
Gray and Peacock are total opposites.
In that peacocks are really colorful.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
All of this
Gray could be in the rotation at the end of the year. While TINSTAPP applies to all pitchers, it especially applies to pitchers who have yet to even throw in a high-A league.
"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer
Co-host of @TarpTalk, an Oakland A's podcast: tarptalkpodcast.wordpress.com
by cuppingmaster on Feb 8, 2012 1:39 AM PST up reply actions
Grammar police:
TINSTAPP is bad grammer. It should be either TINSTAAPP or TANSTAPP.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
by iglew on Feb 9, 2012 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
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