Community Prospect List #6
by Zonis on Feb 19, 2012 9:32 PM PST
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PrintWe are already up to #5 #6 on our Community Prospect List! Lets keep it going strong!
Brad Peacock narrowly beat Sonny Gray to make it to the list, only to be potentially bumped down after making it. Thank you Beane and Cepedes!
The List Thus Far:
1. Jarrod Parker, SP
2. Michael Choice, CF
3. AJ Cole, SP
4. Brad Peacock, SP
6. ... Stay Tuned
Wait, 6? Did he just say 6? What happened to 5?
What happened? Yoenis Cepedes happened.
The overall consensus is that Cepedes is awesome. Very awesome. And as he is still a prospect (he might even start his A's career in the minors), he will be added to this list. The question is where.
That is where you come in. In the comments below, please REC the comment for where you believe Cepedes belongs on the list. The comment with the most Rec's will determine his slot next week.
As for the rest? We march onward!
81 comments
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Comments
Yoenis Cespedes Should be the A's #1 Prospect, ahead of Jarrod Parker
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
by Zonis on Feb 19, 2012 9:33 PM PST reply actions 27 recs
rec plus a +1
if guys that are 26+, like jermaine mitchell, michael taylor, juan carlos linares (BOS), brandon guyer (TB, although he does have MLB experience, if that makes a difference), matt carpenter (STL, see guyer), are considered prospects, yoenis definitely should be
Snoochies
Yoenis Cespedes should be the A's #2 Prospect, behind Parker, but ahead of Choice
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
by Zonis on Feb 19, 2012 9:33 PM PST reply actions 12 recs
+1
The only reason I did not vote to put him no. 1 is that lack of a track record in the U.S.
by robertmelvin on Feb 19, 2012 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yoenis Cespedes should be the A's #3 Prospect, behind Choice but ahead of Cole
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
by Zonis on Feb 19, 2012 9:34 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
Yoenis Cespedes should be the A's #4 Prospect, behind Cole but ahead of Peacock
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
by Zonis on Feb 19, 2012 9:34 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Yoenis Cespedes should be the A's #5 Prospect, behind Peacock
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
In the extremely unlikely even that this option wins.
We would still have to test whether he drops lower than #5.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Hard to vote for me because of Cespedas' age...
I mean I’m not sure how much that should hurt his stock as a “prospect”…
Kiper+Fosse=Mute
Not sure where to slot in Cespedes
I think it’s kind of interesting to compare him side-by-side with Choice. Both are athletic outfielders who play CF, but there are concerns for both that they might be better off moving to RF. In reading all the different articles about Cespedes there have been different opinions on how the Cuban league compares to MiLB, the consensus I’ve noticed seems to be that it is roughly equivalent to High A ball, which just happens to be where Choice played last season.
At age 21 in his first shot at the California League Choice put up a line of .285/.376/.542 with 30 HR over 118 games. Cespedes, at age 25 in his 8th season in Serie Nacional put up a line of .333/.424/.667 with 33 HR over 90 games. Cespedes’ numbers were clearly better but he was much older and had much more experience at his current level of competition.
It would probably be more instructive to look beyond raw batting lines but I don’t know where to find more advanced statistics for the Cuban league. Although scouting information seems to suggest similar profiles for both, tremendous raw power but concerns over ability to make contact. I have read some reports suggesting that Cespedes may not have great patience, but he’s consistently put up OBPs well above his AVG since his debut so I don’t know what to make of that.
I know there is strong opinion out there that Cespedes immediately becomes the A’s best prospect but I can’t help but wonder what he brings to the table that Michael Choice doesn’t.
What happens if you think
Choice is better than Cespedes, and Cespedes is better than Parker. Makes it hard to know where to vote here, huh?
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
Definitely a tricky spot
I figure trying to compare professionals from foreign leagues of questionable skill level to minor league players is tough, and comparing hitting prospects to pitching prospects is tough, so I’ll try to wrap my head around the closest comparison I can think of. Once I decide if I like Cespedes more or less than Choice then I can worry about the other stuff.
Running down the Florida League in 2011
Not a single player with a decent number of ABs had an OPS as high as Cespedes’. It should also be remembered that while the Cuban league itself might be the equivalent of A+ or AA over all, there are players who are of major league caliber who have not defected. So it’s a mix of great players, good players, and players who wouldn’t come close to the majors. So a player like Cespedes would feast on the crappy pitchers, but he would be facing some major league equivalent pitching.
That's true
But the Cuban league is a very offense-friendly environment which should be taken into account when comparing raw numbers. I’m also pretty sure that there is nobody who’s on their 8th go round in the league like Cespedes. Of course Cespedes is playing against other guys who spent there whole career at that lower level, not sure how to account for that.
You're missing the point
These players have spent their entire careers there because they couldn’t go elsewhere, other than to play in international competition. There’s going to be a combination of MLB-ready players and AAAA players and those who are borderline there and would wash out here. And despite perhaps being a hitters’ league, there will be pitchers of MLB quality as well.
It’s not quite like the American minor leagues which is why you can’t quite account for it, and why may folks are thinking crapshoot. We also all remember Ariel Prieto.
I must be missing it, because I can't figure out what your point is
I understand why Cespedes spent so many years in the Cuban league and I understand that there is large variability in talent amongst his competition. Of course there is a significant variability in talent in the minor leagues too. There are always going to be a handful of players at the top who are considerably better than the rest of the league. That variance is greater in the Cuban league but it is a matter of degree, it doesn’t make it completely outside the realm of comprehension.
It’s not quite like the American minor leagues which is why you can’t quite account for it, and why may folks are thinking crapshoot. We also all remember Ariel Prieto.
As far is this part goes, it’s basically the same thing I said in the comment above so I’m not sure what we’re disagreeing about. Unless you’re trying to make the point that the Cuban league is so different from MiLB that there is no way to compare Cespedes to other prospects, in which case it would kind of defeat the purpose of adding him to the prospect list.
It's called Scouting.
Expertise is not that variable in A+ or AA. Any player ready for the majors will move up and out pretty quickly so mostly what you’re going to see are guys still learning how to play. That’s not true of the Japanese league or the Cuban league.
I think the point is that we should completely ignore his numbers in Cuba
The competition and even more the run environment is so different that it makes little sense to add his numbers to any discussion here.
There is never a time where you should ignore numbers from anywhere.
You should always put it in context, whether that’s the league run environment, the player’s age relative to the league’s average, whether the player was injured, etc. But there’s no reason to ever just “completely ignore” someone’s numbers.
Problem is in what context can you put his numbers into.
It is so little data to put these into context that you can pretty much only go by scouting.
they're pretty similar to the ones alexei ramirez put up
before he came over at the same age
Everything that I've read
has indicated that from a pure athletic standpoint, Cespedes is unparalleled in the A’s system. He supposedly has plus speed, and a plus plus arm, and is more likely to stick in CF than choice. They do share one inherent weakness, however – strikeouts. We’ll see how Cespedes’ strikeout rate translates, but he and Choice are both likely to tally high totals in the majors.
+1
Agree, hard to rank number one without a US track record
uncommitted vote?
waiting for the convention.
"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey
by JJ on Feb 20, 2012 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
I thought Gray was going to be automatically assigned the next slot
because he was almost tied with Peacock last round. Suggestion to Zonis: You could call this one early and put up #7. As I type this, there are 172 votes and Gray has 72% of them.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Feb 20, 2012 8:48 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I can see it (though I voted for Gray this round)
- Milone will definitely be a SP, whereas Gray is likely to stay a SP with a chance of being moved to the bullpen.
- Milone has exceptional control, with incredibly low BB rates, whereas Gray’s BB rates were high last year.
- Meanwhile, Milone does strike hitters out too. It may be hard to explain why, but in fact Milone’s minor league K-rates are as good as Gray’s are likely to be.
- Finally, Milone’s arsenal (not reliant on velocity, bread and butter is fastball/changeup) is conducive to good health, while Gray relies a lot on his slider, which is always iffy for long-term health.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
and, fwiw, beane has a pretty good track record acquiring soft tossers
duchscherer, lilly, and lidle all came over in trades with mid to high 80s velo and exceeded expectations.
Don't forget Saarloos
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
A couple things:
First, Gray’s walk rate wasn’t high by itself, it was just higher than Milone’s was. A 2.45 BB/9 is very good, especially considering those were his first 22 IP in professional baseball. Secondly, I don’t think it’s a good or useful practice to rank guys based on their hypothetical health in the future. Sliders may have a history of tearing arms apart, but so does pitching in general. There are plenty of fastball-slider throwers who have had long and fruitful careers with relatively few injuries and plenty of fastball-changeup throwers who have not.
I wouldn’t factor future health into the equation unless one of the players in question has an injury history, which, as far as I know with Milone and Gray, neither of them have.
Just FYI, I was referring to his 2011 college season, not his 22 IP sample.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think future health can factor into the equation in the form of durability
While neither Mione or Gray have had injuries in the past, Milone has shown the ability to take the ball every 5th day and throw 150+ innings year. My feeling is that pitching is generally a stressful activity which is why the incidence of injury is so high. If a pitcher has demonstrated the ability to handle a professional workload and pitch in a 5 man rotation without injury they get a little plus in the injury column from me.
I don’t meant to detract from Gray, because he hasn’t shown that he doesn’t have that ability. He just hasn’t had the chance to show how he will respond to a professional workload. It’s just that in terms of injury risk, I think we have more information about Milone than Gray which gives him a bump up in that category.
I do like Gray more than Milone overall as a prospect, but I think Milone is less of an injury risk.
"My feeling is that pitching is generally a stressful activity which is why the incidence of injury is so high." You said that.
You could just as easily make an argument that Tom Milone, who has 542.2 professional innings to his credit, is 520.2 innings closer to a serious arm injury than Gray is. Pitchers get injured—that just happens. Throwing a ball is a violent action and there are very few arms that can withstand it for an entire season, let alone an entire career.
Like I said, if you want to look at real injury histories, that’s fine, but factoring in potential injuries is a slippery slope.
I don't think all pitcher have the same potential to get injured
Some pitchers are more durable than others, it’s just that it’s hard to tell ahead of time which pitchers can hold up under the strain. As a pitcher demonstrates his durability I think you can assume that his risk for serious injury goes down.
You could just as easily make an argument that Tom Milone, who has 542.2 professional innings to his credit, is 520.2 innings closer to a serious arm injury than Gray is.
Actually, I think that would be a pretty tough argument to make because it involves two pretty shaky assumptions. First, that all pitchers have the same risk of suffering a serious arm injury, and second, that cumulative innings pitched over their career is the sole cause of potential arm injuries.
I do think that all pitchers have some inherent risk of injury, but still believe that a track record of durability should be a factor in assessing an individual pitchers level of risk.
It was just an example. I don't think all pitchers have the same risk, but I do think
they all have risk. You said, “It’s just that it’s hard to tell ahead of time which pitchers can old up under the strain,” and that’s my whole point. I don’t really agree with the notion that a pitcher can demonstrate durability. Rather, I think they pretty much just log innings and get closer to an injury. Pitching is just too dangerous of an activity for me to be able to look at two pitchers without injury histories and decide who will be healthier in the future.
Well, I don't know about the other 21, but
I’ve explained my thinking in other threads on AN (here, for instance).
But more to the point, I just have a feeling that Milone is going to be great, and I’m not ashamed to vote my feeling. Sure, I know that Melissa Lockard, Jon Sickels, Keith Law, and the rest of the professionals are far more qualified to say than I am. But this poll isn’t asking what they think; it’s asking what the AN community thinks. If we all were simply to repeat the information we read from top prospect lists online without sprinkling in our personal opinions, there’d be no point in having this poll.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
And we have professional stats to back up the idea that Milone is awesome
With gray we have what? Draft slot and 20 ip?
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
theres also a ton of youtube video of gray
and its pretty obvious – even to the casual baseball fan, i would think – that he has excellent stuff and knows how to use it
by NRC on Feb 20, 2012 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Also three years of pitching in college
Last two years of which he was pretty much an ace.
by OkayJay81 on Feb 20, 2012 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, we aren't really in the dark about Gray. He's not an international mystery like Ynoa.
If you were ranking very similar pitchers like Peacock and Gray, you could justify giving the edge to the pitcher with the larger track record (that’s why I preferred Peacock over Gray in the last poll), but otherwise I would just vote for whoever I thought was going to be better.
What's interesting about Milone
is that he has the component stats of a guy with Brett Anderson’s slider, or with Jarrod Parker’s fastball. If we didn’t know his “stuff” or his “scouting reports,” and just saw the numbers, we’d probably conclude he was as good as those guys. The guy’s BB, K, and HR ratios have been pretty fantastic.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If we didn't know his "stuff" or "scouting reports"
then we really wouldn’t know much about him at all.
Sure we would.
We’d know his K-rates, BB-rates, K/BB ratios, HR/9IP rates, ARL, FIP, xFIP. And from that, we might even assume we knew a lot about his stuff — in this case, we’d be dead wrong, but usually we’d be right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sickels
John Sickels did a quick write up on Cespedes which placed him roughly as the 9th best hitting prospect. In the comments he said Cespedes would have been given an A- grade, which would put him either #1 or #2 in John’s ranking of our farm system.
It would probably make him number one overall, according to Sickels anyway.
Parker’s not the ninth best pitching prospect overall. He’s close according to some lists, but not quite. Even if he was, the ninth best positional prospect is usually a better bet that the ninth best pitching prospect.
Doesn't seem to be much point to making the case for Gray
I’m not surprised that this vote has been so lopsided, going into this I felt that there was a significant drop off after the first 5. (first 6 now that Cespedes is around)
For the next poll I think we should add Alcantara. I’m not sure I would put him before Carter but the list is pretty full with prospects who are close to the majors with limited breakout potential. Might be good to put a lottery ticket like Alcantara or De La Cruz to give some the upside fans someone to vote for.
I think Carter might deserve a chance to jump back on.
I would probably rate him higher than Milone or Cowgill.
by Billy Frijoles on Feb 20, 2012 3:36 PM PST up reply actions
I say this one is official
I think Green just gave his concession speech.
Time to put up #7
Also you are doing a great job Zonis
Haha, I thought about it, but I will wait.
The threads are for discussion as well. And hey, this was a two-in-one poll thread as well!
Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.
I'm going to make the case against Grant Green as the seventh best prospect in the A's system.
And instead, I’ll throw my support behind Norris.
Norris is a year and a half younger than Green, though both of them played the entire 2011 season in AA. Norris gets the edge in age. Norris has outperformed Green at every level according to wRC+. Green’s initial success seems to have been a mirage of the California league, while Norris has posted gaudy numbers without pretty batting averages. Norris walks nearly three times as often Green does. The only thing Green does better is strike out less often, but at around 20%, he’s hardly otherworldly when it comes to plate discipline. Norris even stole 13 bases last year compared to Green’s 6, while being caught half as many times. Norris gets the edge in offense. Most scouting reports say Norris has average or better skills across the board defensively at catcher, which is a harder position to play than CF—which Green just started playing halfway through the 2011 season. Edge goes to Norris defensively as well.
So there it is. We have seen two Grant Greens. The 2010 Stockton one that was the future shortstop of the Oakland A’s…and the 2011 Midland one who looked like a fringe fourth outfielder. Even if you look at how he hit in Stockton (125 wRC+), Norris still outshined him in Class A Advanced with a 141 wRC+, while playing a harder position and being a year and a half younger. If you’re going to vote for Green, you have to do it with the mindset that he’s going to be better than he’s ever been before, and not just duplicating what he did in 2010.
I’ll probably post this is the next thread, but I want people to read it before the poll starts.
by NateHST on Feb 21, 2012 9:55 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I think I also ended up with #10 for Green.
Only because I’m even more pessimistic about Michael Taylor.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
I like Norris at 7. I definitely agree that he should be ahead of Green. Really, other than his draft pedigree and people’s fond remembrance of his 2010 season, Green has done little to warrant a spot in the top 10. Why, when everyone was so fond of him at this time last year, is Stephen Parker not in the discussion at this point? Because in 2011 he showed his lofty production from the 2010 Cal League was not necessarily indicative of what we can expect at the higher levels. Why aren’t we applying those same standards to Green? Because he was a 1st round pick? I actually think Parker should be considered ahead of Green this year. They’re both defensive liabilities at this time, but Parker has notably better plate discipline and equal if not better power and also out performed Green last year with a 112 wRC+ to Green’s 97.
by oakballnack on Feb 22, 2012 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
I'd still probably rank Green ahead of Parker because I think he has better tools.
Though I don’t think either of them profile as an MLB regular right now. Parker as a platoon partner with Sizemore makes some sense though.
Parker
I thought AN ranked Parker absurdly high last year. And his 2011 season wasn’t so hot.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
His 2010 and 2011 season were statistically better than Green's.
If you think he’s got a shot of being an average or above third baseman defensively, you could make a case that he’s a better overall prospect than Green is. I don’t know that I believe that to be the case, though. I don’t think the A’s would have played him in LF so often if they thought he could handle 3B.
Parker hasn't played LF.
And if you mean 1B, he only played 9 there compared to 118 games at 3B.
Hm, I thought he'd played some games out there.
I guess I was just thinking of the prediction that he would eventually have to move there. Either way, I don’t like that they played him at first, either.
Have you heard something new on his defense.
Last year it was the weird situation that some called it plus defense at third and some said no way he can stay there.
well, there certainly are reasons to believe he'll be better than he's ever been before.
he’s always hit for average and double power, scouts love him and project more HRs down the line, and he went on an absolute tear in the AFL after making adjustments to his stance and swing.
like norris he has his warts, but ill take the guy who can hit and needs to figure out loft versus the guy who has power but can’t make contact. fwiw, i have norris next.
Green went on a tear in the AFL?
Green’s AFL stats in 2011:
.290/.342/.551 with 9 2B, 2 3B, and 5 HR in 107 ABs. With 8 BBs and 26 Ks. I don’t think a 24-year-old K’ing in 1/4 of his ABs in the AFL with a 3:1 K:BB ratio is all that great. Still, he did finish 20th in the AFL in OPS. Michael Choice was 5th .318/.423/.667 5 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR with 9 BB and 12 Ks in 66 ABs.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
.341/.400/.732 in his last 10 games
3 bbs, 6 ks. IIRC, he got hot a little before then, but i cant find a game log.
Yeah, everybody hits in the AFL.
Green was slightly above average in the AFL. His AFL numbers show me nothing that leads me to believe he’s turning things around.
To be fair Green isn't all that good at making contact either
I think it is worth noting that one thing Green does have in his favor is his apparent ability to hit the ball squarely when he does make contact. He’s posted strong BABIPs at every stop and scouts have always been high on his swing and hit tool.
Problem is, that’s really the only tool he seems to have that would be rated above average. As Nate mentioned above, in just about every other category Norris has him squarely beat. Defensive value, baserunning value, power, and ability to take a walk are all in favor of Norris.
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