FanPost

Maybe this is a stupid stats question


Think about the most average player, and whatever you think the best hitting summary statistic is, which i'll call 'H'. now think about whatever pitching stat you value the most, and let's call that 'P'. You can sort the league's pitchers from low P to high P values, and look at the hitter's H stats in that way (ie. his H value for the bottom 10% of the pitchers, then the next 10%, etc). Obviously there will be a tendency for reduced H values as the P group becomes more difficult. Over the population of a league, you can get a measure of what that relationship looks like.
The goal is find out whether a hitter does better than expected given his overall stats against either strong pitching or weak pitching. (ie., if his overall stats indicate a H value of 5, you might expect that he will bat like a 7 against the bottom 10% of pitchers in his league, and a 3 against the top 10%. )
For minor leaguers, would you think that a player that outperforms his overall stats against the better pitchers be a better prospect than a batter who outperforms his overall stats against the weaker pitchers?
I think maybe so, because the better pitchers on a given minor league level are the ones who the minor league batter will face when he gets to the next level.
For major leaguers, are there really some hitters who succeed more than expected against better pitchers and suck more than expected against weaker pitchers? If you could quantify this, would it be useful on either the major or minor league level? And even if it would be useful, is there enough data to evaluate and get significance in your answers?

(and if it would be of use, it could be turned around to evaluate a given pitcher and his performance against better and worse hitters vs. expected results)

I was just trying to think of a way to better predict future performance. I picture 2 AAA hitters with identical overall stats -- but one doing better than expected against the best AAA pitchers but not as good as you would think against the weak AAA pitchers.

This question written by someone (me) who knows little about baseball stats, and I'm sorry if it is, indeed, stupid. It's a long off-season.

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