The Kids Are Alright - A Complete Look at the A's Hot New Prospects

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Nice summary

I didn’t realize Brad Peacock was a 41st round pick. Just goes to show, we’ve been having so many discussions about tanking/not tanking, high picks vs. mid-1st round picks…

by Billy Frijoles on Feb 1, 2012 11:22 AM PST reply actions

Brad Peacock proves that all draft picks are basically equal?

Really?

by NateHST on Feb 1, 2012 3:17 PM PST up reply actions

Did I say he proved anything?

I just said it goes to show basically that you never know. It’s nice that a 41st rounder is already looking better than a lot of 1st/2nd rounders.

by Billy Frijoles on Feb 1, 2012 3:25 PM PST up reply actions

What do you mean "already"? He's been in the minors for five years and still has things he needs to improve.

It doesn’t go to show anything, other than flukes happen. You don’t take a mid-round pick over a top five pick because somebody in the 40th round might be as good as Brad Peacock.

by NateHST on Feb 1, 2012 8:12 PM PST up reply actions

but you look at the odds of succeeding on a top 5 pick, it’s no guarantee. I think the operative question is – do you throw away a season for an increased chance at getting a special player? And the answer is, of course, depends how much better of a chance you have, and how good your season would be that you’re throwing away.

I would think there is general agreement that you don’t throw away an over 50% chance at making the playoffs for a chance at a top 5 pick. What about a 25% chance?

And then what are the chances your top 5 pick turns out to be a better than league average player? 50/50? Which is much higher than a top 30 pick but still not a guarantee that this player will really help you rise out of mediocrity.

Basically Peacock is an extreme example but the point is that good players can be found outside of the top 5. If you are in a draft that doesn’t have a Strasburg, A-Rod, Longoria type of player, that top 5 pick is better odds but still no guarantee.

by Billy Frijoles on Feb 2, 2012 10:36 AM PST up reply actions

You say that "good players can be found outside the top five" like the Nationals

thought Brad Peacock would eventually turn into the 2011 version of Brad Peacock. Then, why did they wait 41 rounds to draft him? There is no skill in finding hidden gems the late rounds of drafts. It’s more like, you buy (select) a painting (player) at a garage sale (draft) for a $1 (in the 41st round) not because it looks nice (is good), but because it makes your baby stop crying (it’s a favor to a scout or friend or some other organizational member).

Five years down the road, you give somebody a tour of your home, and they ask you why you have one of Cézanne’s The Card Players hanging up in your child’s room.

It was luck, and nothing more.

by NateHST on Feb 2, 2012 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

Great analogy...yes obviously a 41st rounder turning into anything useful is dumb luck.

But guys like Choice, Gray, Weeks, etc. were not in the top 5 picks but are looking like they could be above-average major leaguers. Can’t say those are luck.

This was kind of more in connection with the projections concept, if we actually think we have a 25% chance at the playoffs then why bother tanking for the lottery ticket that is a first round pick, especially when mid-round picks like Brett Lawrie, Choice, Gray, etc. are available?

by Billy Frijoles on Feb 2, 2012 1:45 PM PST up reply actions