MLB's Top 100 - The A's 2012 Prospect Watch
So, Happy Friday! What are we doing this weekend? Who's going to FanFest?
Depending on the mood you are in today, it's either "Hey! The A's have six prospects on the top 100 prospect list that MLB published!" or it's "What?! The A's only have six players on the top 100 prospect list that MLB published; we're doomed for the future too! I miss Grant Desme!"
So, I think this is a positive sign; having six on the prospect list. I'd probably feel better if they actually came up from our own system, and not collected via trading our best players in the off-season, but I supposed it depends on how well Michael Choice, Grant Green and Sonny Gray perform before I can be really upset at our system.
So then, let's hear it. In case you have no idea what I'm talking about, a MLB.com senior writer, Jonathan Mayo, compiled a list of the top prospects (this year it's the top 100), and a little summary about them, so we can see into the future, and dream of the day when they might take the field in Oakland Fremont San Jose Mars a basement a parking lot somewhere.
According to our own Jane Lee:
This year's edition of MLB.com's Top Prospects list has expanded from 50 to 100 players. The annual ranking of baseball's biggest and brightest young talent is assembled by MLB.com's Draft and prospect expert Jonathan Mayo, who compiles input from industry sources, including scouts and scouting directors. It is based on analysis of players' skill sets, upsides, closeness to the Majors and potential immediate impact to their teams. The list, which is one of several prospect rankings on MLB.com's Prospect Watch, only includes players with rookie status in 2012.
It takes a quarter of the list, but finally, clocking in at #26 is the A's own Jarrod Parker, a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher, who came over to Oakland in the Cahill deal. Parker was drafted out of high school in 2007, and by 2009, was pitching in High-A. Unfortunately (or fortunately that it's all over for him), he had Tommy John surgery early in his career and missed the entire 2010 season. From a number of weird blogs, I have deduced that he might not be married, but perhaps has a girlfriend. Just in case you were all scouting the A's wives. From Mayo's summary:
Scouting report: With Tommy John surgery now fully in his rearview mirror, Parker showed in the second half of 2011 that the rust was completely gone. If anything, the process made him a more complete pitcher. His plus fastball sits comfortably in the mid-90s, and he can reach back for more. There’s plenty of sink to induce ground balls. He has two breaking balls, a plus slider and a pretty good curve. Add in a good changeup and he has a four-pitch mix with good overall command. His delivery is retooled, he’s stronger than he was pre-surgery and he’s matured mentally and physically.
His upside is listed as the potential to pitch atop a big-league rotation. What I think that means, translated into Oakland A's speak is that, "He will start in 2012 on the A's. Bank it."
See more A's prospects after the jump...
Our next prospect is listed as #59, our own Michael Choice, a 22-year-old outfielder. Choice tidbits from the summary (get it?!) include, "Including his stint in the Arizona Fall League, Choice has 43 home runs in 642 at-bats, or one every 14.9 at-bats." And basically that he will strike out a lot, but also walk a lot.
Upside potential: A big basher who vies for home run and RBI titles while hitting for a higher average than anticipated.
Coming in at #75 is a much-anticipated arrival, Brad Peacock, our 23-year-old right-handed pitcher, who came over to the A's from the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez. It's been hotly debated this off-season whether or not he will start in the rotation this year. Granted it's early, but the A's have the spots to fill, and there's no question that he'll have a legitimate chance to crack the rotation out of Spring Training. For those of you attending Spring Training, I hope we'll have a chance to see him pitch.
From MLB.com:
Scouting report: Part of the gaggle of prospects the A’s got from the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez, Peacock is just about ready to help out in Oakland’s rotation. A jump in velocity in 2010 led to a breakout in 2011, which ended with his big league debut. He can touch the upper 90s with his fastball and he’s more effective with it when he keeps it down in the zone, something he did consistently last year. His curve is another above-average pitch and his changeup has developed nicely, though it’s a touch behind the other two. His overall command has improved as well.
Next on the list in the #85 spot, is Sonny Gray, a right-handed pitcher who is 22 years old. He is expected to continue up through the system, and likely he will not be ready in 2012. We have several other options before rushing him. The scouting report on him includes "raw stuff", but "too many walks".
Another return for Gio Gonzalez is the 20-year-old right-handed pitcher A.J. Cole, who comes in at #88 on the list. He is projected to perhaps be a top starter in a rotation, but obviously he needs time, and innings pitched under his belt before anything more can be said. According to MLB.com, he's clocked in the mid-90's with room for more.
We close the A's portion of the prospects with #94, Grant Green, a 24 year old outfielder (not a shortstop, as I remember, but I'm not crazy; he was drafted at shortstop). According to the prospect list, the switch was made because his bat could get to Oakland faster in the outfield.
Upside potential: With the position switch, he now has the chance to be a solid everyday center fielder with an above-average bat.
So there you go. The top A's to look forward to, and they are not all that far away; I imagine we'll be able to judge for ourselves in less than two months.
Just for comparison's sake, I've taken a look at our AL West competition:
Angels
3. Mike Trout (OF)
55. Jean Segura (SS)
67. Garrett Richards (RHP)
Astros
44. Jonathan Singleton (1B)
61. Jarred Cosart (RHP)
84. George Springer (OF)
Mariners
12. Jesus Montero ( C )
16. Danny Hultzen (LHP)
18. Taijuan Walker (RHP)
52. Nick Franklin (SS)
77. James Paxton (LHP)
Rangers
7. Jurickson Profar (SS)
29. Martin Perez (LHP)
43. Mike Olt (3B)
89. Leonys Martin (OF)
What do you think?
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Wow, our system must have been terrible before these trades.
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 27, 2012 12:53 PM PST reply actions
Sure was.
And actually, that is what bothered me so much. How in the hell are we left with only three prospects? We traded legitimate great starting pitchers in Gonzalez and Cahill just to have a decent-looking prospect system. IMO, that should have been in place over the last five years, no?
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jan 27, 2012 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
Bad drafting, unlucky player development and a lack of investment can be attributed to that
Plus, being unlucky enough to get ~75 wins for 5 seasons. Looking at Sickels’ organization rankings, the majority of those ahead of the A’s have had multiple horrible seasons over the past years. The exceptions of course are the Cardinals and Braves, who have had mainly good seasons, and the Blue Jays, who are somewhere in the middle.
It’s hard to compile a good system in five years without absolutely sucking (Royals, Mariners, Padres) or spending a lot of money on the draft/IFA (Rangers, Blue Jays). Neither of which the A’s have fully committed to.
Exactly things might look better
We’ve kind of been unlucky in the way our better younger prospects have gone through the system. A lot of our younger guys have not progressed the way we would hope:
These guys with good upside fell pretty bad. If one or two of them performed we might now have one of the best systems.
ynoa-Hurt
Parker had an average year,
Krol was an idiot/Hurt
Doolittle was hurt again
Stassi-Sucked/hurt
Then
Green, Choice, Carter, all did well in the Minors but nothing above what was expected to up their grades/position.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 27, 2012 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
Weeks graduated, too
So there goes another Top 50 guy
Oakland Athletics * St. Bonaventure Bonnies * Green Bay Packers * Buffalo Sabres * New York Knicks
by RyanFromBonas on Jan 28, 2012 6:27 AM PST up reply actions
Jesus,
Do Astros fans have ANYTHING to be happy about?
by Menechino_Incarnate on Jan 27, 2012 1:14 PM PST reply actions
yeah, wow. I guess first pick in the draft this year?
by Billy Frijoles on Jan 27, 2012 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
I want to send the Astros a welcome fruit basket.
Seriously, I wasn’t sure I’d like going to a 5 team format, but if it cuts down on playing the Rangers and Angels in favor of the Astros, I’m all for it.
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jan 27, 2012 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
QOTM
awesome
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jan 27, 2012 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
I believe the plan is
to have teams play 18 games against each of the other teams in their division under the new format – which means 11% of our games against the ’Stros!
I'm surprised Mayo, as well as BA have Cole as the fourth best pitching prospect.
He probably has the highest ceiling of any of them, and he’s shown considerable polish for how young he is. Sickels ranked him second (third overall) behind Parker, and I’m inclined to agree with that ranking.
How does the Sally league compare with the MWL as a pitchers league?
I’m just noticing how good Cole’s FIP was and trying to figure how Taijuan Walker gets so much hype while Cole flies relatively under the radar. Other than ERA and BABIP they seem like about the same prospect.
This is from a few years ago
Minor league run environments from THT.
Midwest and South Atlantic are pretty close, with just a little more offense in the latter.
I'm still concerned about his secondary stuff
Every report I read about him mentions his electric fastball that he commands pretty well but that his other pitches are still works in progress. It’s hard for me to get too excited about a 1 -pitch pitcher, even with his success at low levels and projectability.
I'm not sure there are that many pitchers as young as he is that don't have those flaws.
It’s not like Cole is just a thrower. Plus, he’s got a couple years to develop his secondary pitches.
I think most highly rated HS pitchers have at least one above average secondary pitch
19 just doesn’t seem all that young to me and I’d like to see some evidence of a good breaking pitch with potential before I start getting too excited about his ceiling.
Although I’m basing my opinions on the reports I’ve found since the trade so maybe I’m underrating his curveball.
Most reports I've read said something like his secondary pitches were decent
but that he still needed to work on them. If it comes with Cole’s stat line from 2011, I’ll take that over a high school pitcher that hasn’t thrown professionally all day, every single day. Unless we’re talking about a Dylan Bundy-type high school pitcher, Cole’s the superior prospect every time.
You're not the only one.
Sickels ranked Texas (3) and Seattle (4) over Oakland (10) on Monday when he ranked the farm systems. The A’s definitely restocked their system, but unless they move and buy some top tier FA, they will still be fighting a losing battle against Texas and Anaheim.
I don't necessarily believe that.
Remember the ranking is more like a snap shot and there’s still a lot that could happen. As awesome and as “sure things” as Trout and Montero (and the rest of the two systems are) there’s still a lot that could happen before they are established ML players.
Young kids do stupid things, hurt themselves, have mental breakdowns, and of course fail to live up to expectations. Or pull the old Grant Desme.
I’d rather have the Angels and Seattle’s system but these rankings could still change by mid year.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 28, 2012 6:46 AM PST up reply actions
For example, I think Choice/Parker/Green can easily have their value sky rocket according to play this season.
Easily if they exceed their already high expectations they become top 10.
In addition to that we also have the high ceiling low ball guys who easily be ranked next year.Head, Nunez, De la Cruz, Vollmuth, Alcantara, Strainly, Cabrera. All could break the top 50 by playing great this year.
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Jan 28, 2012 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
I meant in the broad scheme of things, MLB rosters included.
The A’s system is better, but it’s not going to put together a team good enough to compete with two already-good farm systems plus a larger payroll. Further, the A’s prospects could just as easily fall into oblivion like you mentioned Trout and Montero could.
Also, the A’s farm system is considerably better than Anaheim’s.
I want to throw out a really crazy idea
So our farm looks pretty good right now, mostly do to the trades this year, the biggest of which was Gio.
What if, and this is quite a stretch, the A’s took the money they would’ve given to Gio (5/42) and spent it instead on Edwin Jackson. He might be more like 4/44 (Tim Dierke’s prediction earlier in January) though. So we would in a sense be trading 1 year of Gio for those 4 prospects. Am I totally off base, or would that be a frieking amazing plot twist?
Last 2 years fWAR – Gio – 6.7, Jackson – 7.6
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Per Rosenthal's tweet, Jackson might be willing to pull a Beltre, sign a one year contract and try again next offseason
Link. If that’s the case, it would make a lot of sense for both the A’s and Jackson for him to do that in Oakland.

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