Is Your Prospect a Jeans Model or a Baseball Player?

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 25, 2012 1:20 PM PST

I'm going to compare two prospects for you. Some of you consider one of the two to be elite. In fact, many baseball scouts think he's something special. He was drafted in the first round, he's 6'3", and when I asked my wife what she thought about the guy, she said he had a "good face."

The other guy is 5'9". He was drafted in the fifth round. He's just another minor leaguer that nobody cares about. I'm not going to tell you which one is which until after you look at the numbers.

Billy	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP		SB/CS	BB/K
A	0.277	0.373	0.445	0.325	11	/4	29/49
AA	0.285	0.360	0.464	0.300	25	/9	57/73
Johnny	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP		SB/CS	BB/K
A	0.318	0.363	0.520	0.366	9	/5	38/117
AA	0.291	0.343	0.408	0.355	6	/8	39/119

Both guys played one year at each level at roughly the same age (Johnny was 4 months younger, so he has that in his favor). Johnny has been helped out by a very high BABIP each of the two years, leading to his higher batting averages. However, Billy has actually done pretty well in the average department as well. Billy's BB/K rate is considerably better, to say the least. Billy is also a considerably better base stealer, and both guys play the same position (kind of).

While the two of these guys may look like a wash to you, there's a twist to this story. One of these guys went on to triple A the next year. And what a year it was. He hit .354/.430/.554 with 30 steals in 33 tries. Billy absolutely tore it up. If you thought these guys were pretty similar before, you now see the difference. Billy keeps getting better, while Johnny puts up a 97 wRC+ season.

See, Billy was drafted in the fifth round and didn't win the Futures Game MVP. He's my height, which is to say he's normal. He's just a regular guy that's not going to sell any jeans.

Billy's real name is Collin Cowgill, and Johnny is Grant Green. Grant Green recenly ranked number 6 on the A's top 10 prospect list over at Baseball America and was our "best hitter for average." Cowgill ranked ... nowhere. Sure, they threw him a bone as the "best outfield arm," but that's it. No love. In fact, they both play Center Field, and while Cowgill is apparently decent there, we only have a partial season of Green there after not cutting it at SS.

I'm not a prospect evaluator, so I haven't seen the "tools" that these guys have. But one thing I do know is that I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more Cowgill.

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Okay, so I didn't actually ask my wife about Grant Green, but you get the point.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 25, 2012 1:28 PM PST reply actions

I've been saying the samething to everyone who's in love with Taylor

Cowgill has performed better than Taylor and is younger. Taylor is big, he looks like a guy who should hit for tons of power. He’s hit for some power, but he hasn’t dominated by any means. Cowgill, yes fueled somewhat from a high BABIP, has dominated AAA. He forced his way onto the roster last year. Taylor hasn’t. Taylor has people crying that he just needs to be given a shot and for him to take his lumps. He’ll get it eventually they say. Maybe he will. But are you going to play him over someone who’s already “getting it.”

It’s nice to the see this comp done with Green. Green has the pedigree and the hype of being a first round draft pick. People rave about his hit tool and I’m hopeful but I just don’t see it. I see a guy who hits for decent average, hasn’t flashed enough power, can’t take enough walks. Where does the hit tool come in?

by Maverick10126 on Jan 25, 2012 1:42 PM PST up reply actions

I've been watching Cowgill highlights

and I haven’t seen him pull a ball the whole time. He’s a year older than Green and was playing in the PCL, with a high BABIP and was playing in Reno. Reno happens to be the best hitters park in the best hitters league in the minors. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cowgill, he’s one of the most interesting parts of the 2012 A’s (along with Parker and Jemile) but I can absolutely justify ranking him below Grant Green. Green, by all accounts, has a much higher ceiling.

by BWH on Jan 25, 2012 1:50 PM PST reply actions

If Green goes to the PCL in April, which I expect him to,

I imagine he’ll see his average jump into the .330 range and have a power resurgence. My prediction for Grant Green in 2012 at AAA is something like .330/.390/.500

by BWH on Jan 25, 2012 1:54 PM PST up reply actions

Green's walks and strikeouts don't seem to be improving.

Cowgill has improved in the walk department. Cowgill seems to be a player who’s learning how to maximize his skill set. Green probably has a higher tool ceiling but what good does that do if he doesn’t learn how to harness it. The strikeouts and walks are a huge problem for me. Especially with diminished power. This will be an interesting year for Green. We’ll see if the adjustments he made in the AFL are real or not. If they are, then he absolutely will be the better player than Cowgill.

Either way, there really isn’t any reason to be so down on Cowgill. I think Cowgill is going to be one of those surprising players. Not a star but a solid regular that we see the true value in. Or maybe that’s just what I hope.

by Maverick10126 on Jan 25, 2012 2:37 PM PST up reply actions

I realize that he's 16 months older, but their ages at each level are only 4 months apart.

the age thing just doesn’t help Green.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 25, 2012 1:56 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, well . . .

It’s not that easy being Green.

"Hello and welcome to another wonderful and frightening night of A's baseball." - Gaijin_Suketto

by EddieVegas_NRAF on Jan 25, 2012 2:24 PM PST up reply actions

and Gold...

especially in 2012.

At one point in my life I liked Dave Kingman more than Rickey Henderson. I was an idiot.

by the_rozeboom on Jan 25, 2012 4:46 PM PST up reply actions

Green's future depends entirely on improving his BB/K ratio

I recognized Johnny as Green because I recognized the 39/119 in AA, which is…really, really bad. It’s going to be a huge challenge for him, because he’s learning a new (and demanding) position, while facing better pitchers, and while doing all that he’s going to have to make a big jump in his strike zone judgment. Otherwise he’ll be helpless hitting against major league pitchers.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 25, 2012 6:11 PM PST reply actions

Yeah here's the bad thing about him improving his bb/k ratio

While cowgill was decent and got better, greenis bad and has stayed that way. With his move to cf, I guess I just don’t see what he has going for him other than draft pedigree. He hasn’t been bad, but he has two full years of not impressing me under his belt now.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 25, 2012 6:28 PM PST up reply actions

I agree

Maybe I could live with the awful bb/k rate if his power had taken a jump but it regressed horribly. I know he made some changes in the fall league to try to get some more power and it seemed to work. With such a small sample size though it’s tough to say if it was real or not. This year is going to be very telling year for Green. He could make adjustments or he could become another Crosby. Except he wont be playing a premium position like Crosby.

by Maverick10126 on Jan 26, 2012 7:36 AM PST up reply actions

This is why the Crisp signing confuses me

One of the real opportunities I saw for 2012 was to see if either Cowgill or Reddick can stick as a major league CFer. If either can, the A’s might have a much better player than previously thought. But now it’s looking like neither will get a regular opportunity and that most likely Cowgill will not even make the club out of spring training or will be the 5th OFer. I’d like to see what those two guys can do, whether they are destined to be “tweeners” (in RF) or perhaps “gems” (in CF).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 25, 2012 9:31 PM PST reply actions

Pretty sure Cowgill will be the 5th outfielder

But I have a feeling he’ll get more playing time than a typical 5th outfielder will. Gomes will probably be splitting his time between DH and LF. Smith will be our primary LF with Gomes and probably Cowgill filling in occasionally. Reddick will be primary right field, but I’m sure Cowgill will work his way in there as well. Coco isn’t exactly a lock for 162 games. Cowgill will get plenty of time in CF and who knows what will happen at the trade deadline.

If teams need that extra piece and we feel that Cowgill is ready to takeover full time, then he’ll get his opportunity.

Just like we saw last year from Weeks, if a player is good, he’ll force his way onto the team. It’d be a nice problem to have too many good players for once.

by Maverick10126 on Jan 26, 2012 7:26 AM PST up reply actions

Wish I could delete posts...

I don’t think Coco is by any means a lock to play 162 games and who knows what will happen at the deadline. If Cowgill takes advantage of the playing time he gets, he’ll get an opportunity to play everyday.

He has to force their hand like Weeks did.

by Maverick10126 on Jan 26, 2012 7:38 AM PST up reply actions

Is there something special about CF

That makes it difficult to tell if a player would be a good one by watching him play a corner? I’m asking this in seriousness. For example, we all know that Crawford or Suzuki would be good if not great center fielders just from watching their corner defense. Why can’t the A’s watch Reddick or Cowgill play a corner and, if fantastic there, later move one of them to center?

Also, injuries. I’m not talking about Crisp’s fragility, which I think is overstated given that his recent injuries have been accidents rather than chronic problems, but just the fact that we’re talking about three positions that need to be filled. There will be injuries. Possibly before the season even starts.

And finally, I’m trying to figure out how Cowgill is the 5th outfielder. Are we really considering Gomes an OF?

by laserbeams on Jan 26, 2012 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

I think the different angle in CF, and the increased reliance on speed (due to having to cover more ground)

makes it hard to extrapolate from COF defense how well a player can handle CF. You can tell something, but maybe not enough.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 27, 2012 1:14 PM PST up reply actions

How much do we know about Green's speed?

He sure doesn’t steal a whole lot of bases, which once again makes me that much more comfortable with Cowgill in CF than Green. Cause if Green doesn’t have speed on his side, I don’t really know what to do with him.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 27, 2012 3:03 PM PST up reply actions

And now, My Top 10 A's Prospect List

1. Jarrod Parker
2. Michael Choice
3. Sonny Gray
4. Brad Peacock
5. A.J. Cole
6. Tom Milone
7. Collin Cowgill
8. Derek Norris
9. Chris Carter
10. Grant Green
Did I put Grant Green #10 just to prove a point? I don’t know, but I figured it’s not right to bash everyone else’s top 10 without putting one up myself. And yes, you read correctly that Milone and Cowgill are 6-7.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 26, 2012 8:35 AM PST reply actions

Heh.

Yours is like a mellower version of my list but with the TINSTAAPP hate dialed back.

I share your pessimism about Green and would have been happy to leave him off my top ten altogether … but I ran out of guys to put in above him! Who else is there? Certainly not Michael Taylor, who I think is even more likely to be a bust than Green is.

I still have high hopes for Carter, though. If only he could play defense anywhere at all I would have ranked him a lot higher.

Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.

by iglew on Jan 26, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions

I considered putting Vicmal de la Cruz in there instead of Green

but the truth is that I know next to nothing about the guy. That would have purely been out of spite toward Grant Green, of which I don’t really have that much.
On the Carter note, I have no problem putting him ahead of Green. While Green may end up being okay on defense, which is far more than we can say about Carter. Here’s the problem though. Being okay or even slighty above average on defense doesn’t get you into the Bigs unless you’ve go the bat to back it up. Right now, I have far more reason to believe that Carter has enough stick to make it as a DH than I do to think that Green has enough to make it as a CF, much less on the corners.

John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson

by A'sFanDFW on Jan 26, 2012 2:13 PM PST up reply actions

I like Carter a lot as well

I hope they don’t give up on him, he is the best hitter we have. I still think he could play 1B well enough but admittedly he has been a disaster there at the MLB level (in extreme spot play).

I hope he makes the team out of spring. He has nothing else to prove at the AAA level.

by Billy Frijoles on Jan 26, 2012 2:30 PM PST up reply actions