Seth Smith Part II: We're Going to Kill This Topic
Here are two sets of Smith splits from his five seasons in Colorado:
| Split | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | BABIP | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Vs. L | 239 | 0.202 | 0.269 | 0.319 | 0.117 | 0.238 | 0.262 | 47 |
| Vs. R | 1,209 | 0.290 | 0.364 | 0.518 | 0.228 | 0.318 | 0.377 | 125 |
| Home | 693 | 0.296 | 0.366 | 0.559 | 0.263 | 0.306 | 0.395 | 136 |
| Away | 755 | 0.257 | 0.332 | 0.418 | 0.161 | 0.303 | 0.327 | 91 |
The top two rows show what Dan explained yesterday, and the bottom two rows detail his home/away splits. it's basically what you'd expect if all you heard were the typical Smith scouting reports; Those two sets of 1,448 plate appearances overlap though; what I wanted to find were how many plate appearances Smith had against lefties at Coors and how many PA away from Denver. It wouldn't tell us much, given that we'd be down close to or under 100 plate appearances for the two numbers, but it sure would be interesting to look at. The numbers against right-handed pitchers (removing the 239 plate appearances from the bottom two rows) would also be insightful, just in case he happened to face more lefties on the road or something weird like that. If anyone can find that, please post it in the comments and let me know where I can find it so I can do more of the work and you can do more of the reading.
Beane has already said that Smith won't platoon, which I'm ok with in this situation. If a team like the Reds or Indians had made this trade, where squeezing out every extra win would likely matter to them, then I'd be outrageously against that decision. That would be dumb. I might be tempted to introduce crying to baseball. By platooning Smith with a right-handed hitter of roughly the same caliber, you'd get about 40 games of a .360 wOBA hitter instead of 40 games of a .280 wOBA hitter. That said, the A's aren't trying to squeeze out every win this year. They should find out, when given a regular chance, if Smith can hit lefties. He's never been given more than 103 plate appearances in a season against lefties, which happened last year.
His .327 wOBA away from home worries me a little bit too. it's only 755 plate appearances away from home. But regressing a "close-to-league-average-number" to the mean just means we get a little closer to league average. Of course, we can't ignore the .395 wOBA at home. But we also need to remember that it's not park adjusted. Most players hit better at home than they do on the road, especially in non-extreme confines. But a .395 wOBA would have placed Smith 11th in baseball last year, while the .327 mark matches such bombers as Bobby Abreu, Mark Trumbo, and James Loney.
I haven't even mentioned yet that Smith is a 29-year old outfielder entering his first arbitration season. He was an adequate defensive outfielder in Colorado, which also has a gigantic outfield, so I'm guessing he'll be fine here (seriously, I went to a game this summer at Coors, and I don't think you understand how big it is until you see it). He'll be paid about $2.5 million this coming season, which means he could see $4-5 million the next two years. But he'll get pricey come 2015. Simply put, he doesn't seem like a piece that will be here for TEH COMING*.
* That's a term I just made up for the 2015 wave of prospects that are all supposed to arrive at the same time and save the franchise. Let's see if it catches on. If it does, great; if not, I'll just use it more.
I'm guessing what Beane wants out of the deal is an opportunity to flip Smith at a trade deadline. Smith only cost the A's Guillermo Moscoso (whose peripherals suggested some MAJOR regression in his near future) and Josh Outman (who, while a nice pitcher, is likely not something that can't be replaced). Since Smith is under control for three years and not likely to be prohibitively expensive, he'll get three chances. All it takes is one season where Smith hits left-handed pitching just a little bit, his overall offensive numbers see a little boost, and some sucker in late July needs a bat. Smith's best season was 2009, but he was basically the same hitter the last three years against righties. Only difference is that in his tiny sample size in 2009 against lefties, Smith was more than adequate (he hit .259/.368/.500 in 69 plate appearances); Billy just needs lightning to strike one more time.
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shoot...
My planned piece for Sunday: Seth Smith’s wOBA on Tuesdays: How Day of the Week Splits Will Lead to a 2012 AL West Title … Maybe ought to be shelved then…
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 8:10 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions 3 recs
No way!
I think it should be followed up with an ANalysis of how weather/allergies has affected his splits.
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
by Tutu-late on Jan 19, 2012 8:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The two dan's pieces are very enlightening.
I appreciate all their work.
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
I'd have to look for it a bit
but a (seemingly knowing) Colorado fan posted that Smith is not only not “adequate” defensively, but is absolutely atrocious. Custian, it could be said, apparently.
how's smith's arm?
cust was terrible and was voted one of the 3 worst in the AL by other players in ’09 or ’10
by heartstopper on Jan 19, 2012 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
I believe it's slang
Those of us who are way hip and cool understand this.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Which is to say, Cindi explained it to me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I just want to know how to pronounce "TEH" :)
Is it the same as “teh”?
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
Probably the same as teh
My take on the pronounciation: It’s the same exact sound as in the name Ted. Just chop off the “d” and you’re good to go.
For example: TEH Lilly
Teh Lilly is advertising his first annual Golf Tournament
It’s up in Oakhurst, CA where he lives. It is to benefit local kids sports.
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
Honestly, the only thing you have going for you is that your user name ends with an 'i'
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Only because SBN's software didn't allow 'í'.
Difference of opinion among my community is a sign of the bounty of God.
It allows the 'i'
but not the all-important “heart for the dot over the ‘i’”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And, yes you are very much one of the hip and cool ones.:)
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
Are you getting my emails?
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
Did anyone else think of Dumb and Dumber
when Lloyd is trying to read the newspaper and can’t pronounce “the”?
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
I Did!
"You can attract a hitter but you can't make him hit" -Lou Wolff
by Geronimo Berroa on Jan 19, 2012 10:52 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
Here's my question, Dan H:
If Beane can likely flip him for a “good prospect” in 2012 or 2013, whenever his value is highest, why aren’t you pleased with the trade? In a way, I agree with the analysis but then not with your conclusion. I’m guessing you’d have liked a trade of Moscoso and Outman for one good prospect.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
giving my two cents
I don’t like it because in the interim we block cost controlled guys who could prove useful. This deal alone probably caused the Allen trade rumors we saw this morning as there is no outfield spot where he could land and now four compete for the two DH/1B spots.
We however do need to clog our rotation this year with players to ensure guys like Parker and Peacock get more time in the minors. Yet we have just unprotected those players needing protection and blocked those players who need not be blocked in one fell swoop.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 8:12 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions 3 recs
Interesting.
We trade for a meh player in the hopes he increases his value, then shop a prospect at the bottom of his value. That doesn’t make a lot of sense.
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
yup
That was the report on MLB Trade Rumors. I’d link but I am using this on my mobile and all that switching windows is more than I can bother to do right now so if someone else wants to link… thx!
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 8:50 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Just double checking the math
Seems like Reddick is pretty much assured of one of the corner outfield slots?
That leaves three open spots on the diamond (well, DH is sort of diamondless):
1B, COF, and DH
Competing for those spots are:
Carter
Barton
Allen
Cowgill
Taylor
Kila
Smith
Kila’s a dark horse, so count him or don’t. Without Smith, we had 6 guys competing for three slots. Fairly managable, theoretically a half-season each for everyone to prove themselves. That’s a reasonable length audition for the young guys.
If we assume Smith becomes a full-time OF out of camp, it’s now 6 guys competing for 2 slots. A third of season, not so great for an extended look. Say Barton rebounds and locks down 1B from the onset of 2012. Suddenly there’s only one slot, DH, for all those young guys? Not a great scenario.
Nobody gets a full-season look except the best top-rated prospects
And none of these guys qualify.
carter is NOT playing for 1st base
or OF for that matter. his D is atrocious. he looks totally lost and no matter how much work he has put in this winter it simply won’t be enough for 2012
by heartstopper on Jan 19, 2012 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
Just two open spots
1B & DH – with Barton, Carter, Allen & Kila in the mix. Crisp is set in center. Beane said after the Smith trade to expect an outfield of Smith, Crisp & Reddick.
I agree with this completely
Seems to me it would be better to find out what the young hitters (who are generally a little older and more suspect) are capable of now and weed out the men from the boys, while giving the young pitchers (who are generally a little younger and more clearly talented) some time to develop properly and delay their arbitration/free agent clocks.
I should have made that more clear...
Being a Seth Smith fanboy, I would have thought I’d love this trade. But I’m not head over heels about it, for several of the reasons David listed just above this. I think it’s a worthwhile risk, but there’s a lot of risk involved, not the least of which is exposing young pitchers too soon.
by DanHennessey31 on Jan 19, 2012 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
he goes to another team in exchange for players or cash
by NRC on Jan 19, 2012 8:20 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Or a bobblehead
Fun fact: The only A’s bobblehead on my shelf that still plays for the A’s is Kurt Suzuki. And it’s not like the others have retired; they all just play for other teams.
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
by baseballgirl on Jan 19, 2012 9:18 AM PST up reply actions
Isn't Rickey Henderson still not actually retired?
Can’t believe I didn’t yet think of this as a marketing gimmick. Only two MLB players appeared in five different decades. Just for kicks I’ll leave that as a trivia bit for people to guess at.
Point is, because Rickey had the fortune to appear first in ‘79, he’s a great candidate for a gimmicky pinch hit. Both the other players with the 5 decade title made their last appearence as a PR stunt. Why not continue that tradition this year in Oakland? Added bonus, I believe it would be the first time a HOF player made an appearence in MLB?
Minnie Minoso
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 10:05 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
(no) Thanks to segregation, Satch was a three-decade guy.
Jim Kaat? Cy Young?
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Both terrific long-time pitchers
But alas still not correct. Something to keep in mind with this record is that to achieve the feat you pretty much have to make a gimmick appearence in your 50’s. Kaat had a 25 year career and even debuted in 1959 (an end of decade rookie year really helps boost your decadal total). But that still leaves him with appeareances in only four decades (nothing to scoff at).
Young debuted in 1890 so no chance for him. Solid 22 year career. But even if a guy debuted in at the end of a decade (like Kaat or Henderson) they still would need to play for 31 years at mimumum to reach the 5 decade mark without some gimmick PA or IP.
Props to you guys for having a real go at this rather than just hitting up the returned-from-blackout Wikipedia.
I went to Wikipedia right after to confirm that I was, in fact, wrong.
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Hah!
The correct answer is pretty obscure. Think I’ll hold off posting the answer ‘till early tonight. Want to write up a blurb about the mystery guy as he’s a fantastic character from MLB’s past.
Oh also,
When I first heard this trivia question I knew Minoso and then guessed Charlie Hough, another 25-year pitching career guy.
I was thinking possibly Julio Franco
But that wouldn’t have been a stunt. Gaylord Perry could’ve been if he was activated in his fifties.
Is it a Gashouse Gang-era Cardinal? Pepper Martin?
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
I'm looking forward to that.
Finally figured it out, but it took seven guesses. Not gonna blurt it out here. Great question!
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
Reply fail. Shoulda been up 4 spots.
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
And the answer is ... Nick Altrock!
A WS winning pitcher from the turn of the 20th century. He appeared in the 1890’s and then the 20th century decades of the 00’s, 10’s, 20’s and 30’s.
Why is Altrock so awesome?
Well, first, his name is Altrock. Alt-rock. Alternative Rock. I mean, c’mon. How can you not be cool?
Altrock was a great pitcher and a greater personality. To get of sense of the guy, here’s a quote about his birth:
Nicholas Altrock was born in Cincinnati on September 15, 1876. He used to joke, “the country was born in 1776 and Nick Altrock was born in 1876. But somehow my parents slipped up. I should have been born on the Fourth of July.”
Altrock was a young hotshot who was first signed by an MLB club at the age of 21 with Louisville Colonals (pro ball in Louisville, good times). He performed okay but had this penchant for partying and general lack of seriousness. He was cut from the squad and didn’t get back to Show ’till 1903. He was signed by the dominant Boston Red Sox, led by Cy Young. No room in that rotation for a youngster, so he was shipped to Chicago where he made his name.
Altrock was an amazing pitcher from 1904-1906 with the Chicago White Sox. He was part of what was perhaps the best rotation ever assembled on the ’06 White Sox WS Championship team. This was the deadball era, so the league ERA average was a pretty low 2.60
Here was what the five guys from Chicago did:
Frank Owen: 2.33
Roy Patterson: 2.09
Nick Altrock: 2.06
Ed Walsh: 1.88
Doc White: 1.52
The Murderer’s Row of pitching. More on the group here. Just wow!
Altrock suffered an injury that offseason. He was still something of a hard party-goer. Not sure if that caused the injury but he apparently didn’t work too hard on recovery. He had two more mediocre seasons, which wasn’t good enough on the hitless-wonder, all-pitching White Sox squad (hmm, blueprint for the modern A’s). He was traded and never held a steady MLB starting job again.
So how’d he get appearances in three more decades? Well that’s the best part of this story. Altrock was always a goof on the diamond. No doubt bored coaching third base for his minor league squad in Kansas City…
he decided to imitate a film he had seen the previous night of a shadow boxing exhibition featuring featherweight champion Johnny Kilbane. Altrock opened with a roundhouse right to his own chin and fell to the ground. Then he picked himself up and went at himself again, as the crowd roared in bemused delight. Nick finished by knocking himself out to raucous applause.
Kansas City was not amused, but one other guy was. Clark Griffith, an MLB legend (HOFer, star pitcher, manager, and eventual owner of the Washington Senators, took a liking to Altrock’s clowning ways.
The Senators hired Altrock on as a "comedy coacher "in 1912. This was a team that already had legendary prankster Germany Schaefer (the man who stole first base) on the roster. So Altrock was a natural fit.
Over the years he would pull many shenanigans. Here’s a good one:
One day the Senators were losing to a strong Cleveland pitcher named Vean Gregg. Griffith turned to his rubber-faced acquisition and said, “What good are you?”
Nick said seriously, “I’m the king’s jester.” Then he asked, “Do you really want to win this game?”
Griffith said, “With your pitching I suppose?”
Altrock said, “No. With my coaching.” Altrock talked Griffith into sending him to the first base coaching box. The next time Griffith looked out to the field he saw Nick in a heap on the ground finishing a pantomime of a man who spiked himself with his own shoe. Gregg was laughing so hard he started heaving the ball over the middle and the Senators starting hitting. Altrock morphed the routine into a full wrestling pantomime, pinning himself for a victory. Finally, home plate umpire Silk O’Loughlin, himself doubled over with laughter, ordered him to stop.
Altrock would sporadically make appearances as a pitcher or pinch batter though the years. Often this occurred on the last day of the season, traditionally held as a gag game of sorts during this gentler time is history. He earned his 5-decade title in 1931 and would gain a further record in 1933 during his final appearance, at age 58. His at-bat was the last appearance of a 19th century player in an MLB game, cemented quite the legacy as ace pitcher, 5-decade player, and Clown Prince of Baseball.
Further reading:
Very cool.
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jan 19, 2012 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Great guess
Paige was part of a classic Charlie Finley PR stunt in 1965 and made an appearance on the mound at age 58. Well, stunt isn’t really the right word. It was more about being a tribute to the Negro Leagues, bit of both really (tribute and good PR move). Anyway, Paige went three innings against a pretty good Boston Red Sox lineup and only allowed one hit!
But, this in an MLB record and Paige was barred from playing in the MLB until the 1940s, at which point Paige was already in his late 30s. A fascinating bit of baseball history was the debate at the time as to the better choice for breaking the color barrier, Paige or Jackie Robinson. Interesting quote pulled from Wikipedia:
Paige said in his autobiography that, "Signing Jackie like they did still hurt me deep down. I’d been the guy who’d started all that big talk about letting us in the big time. I’d been the one who’d opened up the major league parks to colored teams. I’d been the one who the white boys wanted to go barnstorming against." Paige, and all other black players, knew that quibbling about the choice of the first black player in the major leagues would do nothing productive, so, despite his inner feelings, Paige said of Robinson, "He’s the greatest colored player I’ve ever seen."
You know Rickey would be down to pinch run for the A's
but only if they offer to actually let him compete for a full time spot too.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
Scary thing is
He’s probably still a better bench player than our other options. Don’t think Rickey will be okay just riding pine, though.
Here’s another thought. Let’s just bring him to Tokyo. That series will be all about King Felix and Ichiro. Why not throw Rickey out there and give the Japanese media an A’s-centric storyline to follow.
slow down
you lost me there…
Let's play two.
by Stew's Crew on Jan 19, 2012 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
What happens if we trade Brandon Allen?
Given the A’s recent history when it comes to trading young players , Andre Ethier and Carlos Gonzalez, he’ll probably be the next Big Papi. Wouldn’t that be hard to swallow?!
by Billyballfan on Jan 21, 2012 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Nice Writeup... Including Dan's yesterday
But I find it hard to get excited about trades for mediocre players to fill our outfield by trading mediocre pitcher’s who pitch in a pitcher friendly park.
When Beane first got the position of GM he talked about seeing fantasy baseball come to real life, now that he was in a position to see what kind of effect he would have. Ten plus years later, I wonder if he has the same enthusiasm about the revolving door of trading for mediocre players as he attempts to find another undiscovered gem.
I am truly not cynical about him or the A’s, but just a little worn out. I find it harder to get excited about these types of trades. Granted these two pitchers will not by Cy Young candidates this year, but I also don’t see Yastremski type numbers coming from our new LF, frankly, I would have wanted to sign the one we had last year instead of seeing him go to the Twins for a bargain price.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
me too. that $$ that the A's needed to spend to reach a payroll minimum
could have been spent more wisely.
My thoughts exactly:
Ultimately, this is an inconsequential trade that makes us “about the same now” in exchange for making us “about the same later”.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nico and OaklandSi
One thing that struck me was on my podcast I do with some other ANers (shameless plug: tarptalkpodcast.wordpress.com) we had Sam Miller on, Angels beat writer for the OC Register and he commented that the A’s sort of wait until the stars are aligned the lighting is just right etc with their windows. In that we don’t just try to get our team to compete in general but specifically at a time when Los Angeles or Texas would be waning etc. That was an interesting statement to me when perhaps we should look at being good and hoping to catch some breaks. It sort of to me boiled down to something that I think is sometimes true where we let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 8:54 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Great point
I certainly believe that there’s no such thing as a “perfect” window. Sure the odds may be stacked against you in some years versus others, but you just never know. A great example: the 2011 Diamondbacks. At the beginning of the season, the smart money was 100% on either the Rockies or the Giants taking that division. But as the season unfolded the Rockies faded early. The Giants were in it for a while, but the D-backs pitching developed into excellence and they ran away with the division. You just never know. The Rays dared to compete against the two big money evils of the Bo Sox and Yankees. Still made the playoffs three of the last four years. Heck the 2001 A’s won 102 games and finished 2nd in their division. You just never know.
Some sports adages are silly and untrue, but one I still love is “you control your own destiny”.
I still believe in rebuilding seasons. This is a hugely contentious point, but while I know it’s certainly possible to try and compete every year, it doesn’t mean you should compete every year. Leave room for the possibility of success while managing realistic expectations.
This post is getting long-winded, but one final mention has to made in regards to the 2008 season. Perhaps the most questionable decision Beane ever made was tearing apart the team midway through 2008. Some history. In the ‘07-’08 offseason we traded Haren and Swisher and were really getting the rebuild going. But the first half of ‘08 started quite well. Duchscherer emerged as a second ace alongside Harden. Cust hadn’t starting sucking and Frank Thomas 2.0, while not quite the ‘06 vintage, was still a decent DH. Zooks still had a high batting average. Here are the standing from 2008 on July 7th.
Standings for July 7th, 2008
With over half the season finished, we sat just 3.5 games out of the Wild Card. Anaheim was on a tear (6 games up in July) and would indeed go on to win 100 games. But we were right in the thick of it. The next day Harden was traded to the Cubs for the inferior Sean Gallagher and prospects. Two weeks later we said goodbye to Blanton. We threw in the towel in the middle of a competitive season. I don’t want to get in to the specifics of the trades (at the time both were seen as only slight disappointments value-wise). One of my friends, a long-time fan, stopped following the A’s the day Harden was traded. He just couldn’t stomach rooting for a team that would give up on a playoff run, no matter the circumstance.
My take: I knew we were rebuilding anyway, so I wasn’t too bummed. But I still was more in favor of trying to chase down our nemesis, Boston. Maybe bring in a bat. Harden was amazing for the Cubs down the stretch, 1.8 WAR is just 77 innings (nasty loss in his one postseason game, but still).
We could have been a condenter.
by Ciderbeck on Jan 19, 2012 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope...
…the Angels and Rangers spend themselves silly and aren’t able to sustain it.
Another point I wanted to make, back to Nico’s original question, is that while I think it’s a good move for the 2012 A’s, I don’t get excited about 72-win baseball teams. I’ll be excited about moves that can contribute to a 90-win team. I like the trade, and this move could be a precursor to something larger, but I’m not excited about it.
by DanHennessey31 on Jan 19, 2012 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
I Don't Think Seth Smith Was Part of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball 1st round Wish List
What does Billy know that I don’t?
Can I consult Cindi? I am comforted in knowing that she at least took the time to explain it to you…slowly, using small words.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I liked Willingham, but we got 2 draft picks for letting him walk and he's replaceable.
Enter arbitrary sig line here
by theoriginalrods on Jan 19, 2012 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
It's nice but I won't feel so good until I see 29 HR type productivity...
out of 1 player, not out of 3 in our outfeld for a season.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Seth Smith is still my boyfriend, dwish
Haters can hate! (Nico, is that cooler than “teh”?)
Seriously, I think I’ve come to the conclusion this season that I just want someone on the team to be good. I’d be okay with average pitching and one good player to watch. My expectations are lower than any A’s season in my entire life, and that includes the mid-90’s. (Congratulations, 2012 A’s!) (And seriously, I’m talking old Royals/Pirates/Astros expectations here.)
"Oh who am I kidding? The A's and Giants could stage a pillow fight, and I'd still care who wins." -67Marquez
There was a time....
When I trusted Beane to make smart decisions. Now, it seems that so little makes sense. I mean, I can come up with rationalizations for what he’s doing and then convince myself these moves are good, but really, I haven’t a clue.
So he’s shopping Brandon Allen. Makes sense to shop someone because it’s obvious he’s looking for a veteran presence at 1B and/or DH (or possibly a veteran starter), and someone needs to go. But Allen has a fine minor league stat line, obvious power, and is a good fielder. Why keep Kila, who shows nothing, over Brandon Allen? It makes no sense.
I’ll defend the Smith trade a little - I mean, he could wind up another pre-injury Mark Kotsay. But really, if the A’s are going to have a new stadium in a couple of years, why not just bite the bullet and sign another free agent who can easily be swapped out mid-season?
And again - there is NO REASON why this Kila dude is on the 40-man roster. None. He has all the earmarks of a spring training invitee.
If you had to choose: B. Allen or C. Carter?
I liked Allen’s swing and power and he conveyed a sense of knowlege about the strike zone. I didn’t see him get fooled on sliders thrown mid to outside as much as Carter still struggles with that pitch.
In terms of potential both of these guys appear about the same…if they ever reach their potential, that is.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I'll take Allen because he can play good defense rather than atrocious defense
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Carter must have very little Trade Value
What is it about the A’s that sucks the life out of players?
Agreed regarding Allen’s defense. I suspect he will turn out to be another C. Gon or C. Pena in the next few years…Especially if he changes his 1st name to Carlos.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I'll take Carter because of his power and his learning curve
Carter rededicated himself to baseball last season, but injury prevented him from getting into sync. Allen is a good fielder but he looked even more hopeless than Carter toward the end of his stint last year.
I would take either, though, over Kila, and I’d dump Rosales before I dumped either of them.
Since the Smith splits topic is killed
I’d like to use this space to post a brief rant about the misuse of park effects when discussing player trades. It drives me mad when people say a guy like Smith won’t be as good of a hitter because he’s moving to Oakland (not saying this is what either Dan did in their posts). There’s a very important distinction between a player’s offensive numbers falling versus his skill diminishing.
Because of home park, overall numbers and offensive output will be suppressed. But that’s true FOR EVERY PLAYER that might come to Oakland. If we had signed Albert Pujols, his numbers would also see a drop. So please everyone on the internet stop making the mistake of saying every player is magically worse just because they join teams in pitching-friendly parks.
Caveat: It’s true that certain players might make better use of a home park. For example, in Oakland home runs are suppressed more than doubles and triples, so a big HR guy will see a more pronounced decrease in output than a doubles guy. This is proper analysis of park effects on individual player performance.
Couldn't agree more
By the theory that OAK suppresses hitting, we shouldn’t ever acquire a hitter since he won’t perform as well as he’s been performing. That’s now how it works: It’s graded on a curve!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
But every scrapheap pitcher has to come here.
I also don’t understand the quip that’s always floated around about rebuilding value in friendly confines. I guess it’s really true that agents can use better-looking season stat totals to influence free agent signings after a one-year “value-building” stint in a favorable park? But c’mon, aren’t front offices smart enough to understand park effects? Then again, the Rockies just acquired Mr. Flyball Guillermo Moscoso so maybe I give too much credit? Also, no matter what park effects will at most affect only half a player’s season. So there’s that to consider as well.
Does Oakland suppress home runs?
I thought the huge foul area suppressed batting average, but a lot of players have hit a lot of homers at the Coliseum.
Night game marine layer
Affects all the West Coast stadiums. Dodger, Angel, Safeco, Petco, Phonebooth.
anaheim
Isn’t afflicted I don’t think. It’s sufficiently inland.
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by dwishinsky on Jan 19, 2012 11:44 AM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Can't find a definitive source, but I've always read it affects all California stadiums
My gut feeling is that the effect is worst in Oakland and maybe SF. I couldn’t find a proper statistical piece, but random googling shows that the marine layer has come up several times when talking about So-Cal based teams. Here’s an example from Torii Hunter discussing the home run suppression from an article about Vernon Well’s first season in Anaheim:
Hunter had warned [Vernon Wells] of the frustration of watching the marine layer at Angel Stadium knock down potential home runs in the early months of the season. But Wells had to experience it to understand how demoralizing it can be.
“It was … different,” he said, grinning. “Torii told me it was one of the things he had to get used to — along with the travel.”
Weird.
I mean I get it in other stadium literally abutting the water but I’d have thought itd get that far inland to Anaheim. I am like 30 miles east of there and we have nothing of the sort.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
You don't get a second chance
To hit a HR after you foul out either.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
by extension.....
if it effects BA it would effect HRs for the same reason. players don’t get as many chances once a foul ball is caught for an out. there is also no short down the line shot in RF or LF
by heartstopper on Jan 19, 2012 5:31 PM PST up reply actions
Ugh, wanted to see Smith just play.
Oh well,. we might some comedy value watching Gomes play the OF.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Jan 19, 2012 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
Gomes is a career
.281/.375/.501 hitter vs. lefties.
Smith is a career .290/.364/.518 hitter vs. righties. Could be a good left field platoon.
Great platoon
Smith/Gomes (could)= Lowenstein/Roenicke.
In 1982 Earl Weaver maximized one of the great outfield platoons in baseball history. John Lowenstein, in 384 plate appearances hit 24 HRs with 66 RBI with a line of .320/.415/.602 with an OPS of 1.017 and an OPS+ of 176. Gary Roenicke had 477 plate appearances, hit 21 HRs with 74 RBI with a line of .270/.392/ .499 with a .891 OPS and a 143 OPS+.
Looking at their at bats in left field only for the O’s in ’82 The L/R platoon hit 33 HRs with 93 RBIs with a line of .294 .400 .574.
Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. Billy Martin
by Steve in Napa on Jan 19, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
Yup
That’s about a .287/.367/.513 hitter (assuming Smith gets the bulk of the ABs). 2 roster spots and poor defense, but…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
were gomes's and smith's splits generated playing everyday or just when their skills were advantaged? will they be able to replicate them when playing a true platoon?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I think those guys have both been in pretty strict platoons for the past 2-3 years.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
with smith getting nearly 500AB last season
wouldn’t that indicate playing time NOT in a platoon
by heartstopper on Jan 19, 2012 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
Either that or one HELL of an offense.
"Trying not to rec a "***k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."-anonymous
"i guess i just like beer"-stm
I would love these two in a platoon, on a team that had a chance of winning anything
Just still don’t like taking time away from Taylor/Cowgill.
by Rebuilding Season on Jan 19, 2012 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
Should the A's trade for .....
Roberto Hernandez Heredia??

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