Juan Pierre? :D Let's stack SBs like a boss

by LunaCI on Jan 11, 2012 11:27 PM PST

We've already got two great basestealers at the top of the order...perhaps the A's should go balls-out and grab a third :D

Juan Pierre

Could make for an interesting experiment...see what happens when your top of the order is:

LF- Juan Pierre (27 SB in 158 games; 68 in 160 games in 2010)

2B- Jemile Weeks (22 SB in 97 games)

CF- Coco Crisp (49 SB in 136 games)

It's a unique dynamic, too, because both Weeks and Crisp have some pop (and Crisp hit well with RISP last year). Also, Pierre led the league in sacrifices last year...so you could have 9-hole Pennington on, Pierre bunts him over, and Weeks/Crisp knock him in. And give the pitcher/defense fits with yet another basestealer being on.

With tutelage from Rickey, Crisp's SBs exploded, so Pierre could do the same thing.

We're not competing, anyways, so it's an offensive gamble and an experiment worth trying out, I think. Could work out awesome; and if it doesn't, just ship Pierre off to someone for cash or cut him.

Are there examples of any teams in the modern era that really stacked basestealing? What do the stats say about SBs these days? (It seems like WAR underrates them...and 'the A's' and 'underrated' go together like 'Brad Pitt' and 'Jonah Hill' ;D)

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I think it's a great idea...

But I am on board with the people who say, "We won’t be competitive until 2015-2016.

So, Yes. Sign a package of Pierre, Ludwick, and Ankiel so we can lose 87 games instead of 99. (Not)

Much Love,

by Colorado Fan on Jan 11, 2012 11:43 PM PST reply actions

You mean lose 99 instead of 87.

Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.

by Zonis on Jan 12, 2012 5:51 PM PST up reply actions

sure, I guess.

But I would probably drop Pierre to hitting 9th. He would still bat before the 1 & 2 hitters 3-4 times per game, but he really just sucks at hitting too much to give him extra at bats.

by RayJEdd on Jan 12, 2012 7:23 AM PST reply actions

Not a fan of Pierre at all

He’s never really been a good player overall. Even on the bases, he’s always gotten thrown out a ton (8th all-time in CS, 24th in SB). He’s regularly among the league leaders in outs created, and now he’s old. That 1-2-3 would make the A’s easily the worst offense in the AL.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 12, 2012 8:01 AM PST reply actions

Stacked base-stealing examples?

Have you ever read up on the “Whiteyball” Cardinals of the 80’s. It’s THE classic test case of going small ball. Hardball Times article.

Rickey’s great SB rival, Vince Coleman, led the team. Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith were also speed demons. Those Cardinals are #2 and #3 on the modern stolen base team record list. The bad news is, according to the Hardball Times article, in stealing a historically high 300+ bases in ’85 the Cards only added about 4% to their season run total. Or about 3 wins. Significant yes, but not to the point where stolen bases alone would be a valid competitive strategy.

Anyone forget to click on that SB leaders link. You really should. How awesome is the history of the A’s? 9 World Series titles, 4 since the Oakland move. And we STILL found time to also set the modern stolen base record. The ’85 Card were the second ever modern team to steal 300+ bases (they swiped 314) which still left them behind an Oakland Athletics squad that one year stole 341 bases! 341!

Ready to have your mind blown? They accomplished the feat three years BEFORE Rickey Henderson debuted. Yep, 341 SB without Rickey’s help. The team to do it was the ‘76 squad. The stats page for the ’76 A’s is just astounding. And here’s a really good read, again from the Hardball Times, talking about the ’76 season: Beat ’Em Like They Stole Something.

I greatly look forward to seeing Coco and Weeks fly around the basepaths. I think I minor goal of this season should be seeing if Pennington can reproduce his ‘10 season when he went 29/34 in stolen base attempts. But it’s a no on Pierre for me. Love the outside the box thinking though. It’s something that has always made the A’s great!

by Ciderbeck on Jan 12, 2012 8:38 AM PST reply actions

I like that Hardball Times piece

for the detail of the analysis, but I think you can make a quick assessment of the role of SBs in the Cardinals’ offense by comparing the ’85 team with the ’86 team. The ’85 team led the NL in OBP, BA, SB, and runs. The ’86 team led the NL in SB — and was last in OBP, BA, and runs.

Get a lot of guys on base, and you’ll score a lot of runs. Don’t get a lot of guys on base, and you won’t. Adding another somewhat fast guy in Pierre who’s not all that great at getting on base won’t help the A’s score runs.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 12, 2012 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Excellent point

The other interesting factors were some amazing individual perfomances in both the ‘85 and ’87 runs to the World Series. In ’85 John Tudor had a historically great season. Somewhat forgotten really. But hit put up a 0.938 WHIP. That’s insane. And Willie McGee had a crazy career year. OPS of .887 when he would only ever suprass an .800 OPS one other time in his career.

Then in ’87 it was Jack Clark going a tear. Well, that was an offensive boom year, but a 1.055 OPS from Jack the Ripper. Wow. A 0.459 OBP.

To be fair to Pierre, Vince Coleman was no hotshot with the bat. But Coleman routinely stole 100+ bases. At the end of the day Pierre isn’t a guy that will turn a season around for a team.

by Ciderbeck on Jan 12, 2012 4:49 PM PST up reply actions

Tudor's season gets overlooked in part

because he made the mistake of having that great season in 1985, when a 20-year-old Dwight Gooden was putting up his 11.7 bWAR/9 fWAR masterpiece of a year.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 13, 2012 8:36 AM PST up reply actions

Cool team, that '76 squad, but

I don’t believe Don Baylor stole 52 bases…

by Slip n Slide on Jan 12, 2012 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

I know, right

Looking at Baylor’s career page he did have some speed, but that 52 SB campaign was an outlier. He also wasn’t doing much with the bat. Looks like he tried to swipe a bag about once every four times he reached base.

And that Matt Alexander seems an interesting fellow, he of 20 SB fame from ‘76. One of several pinch runners employed by Finley in the 70’s. Went one for thirty that year at the plate. Ouch. Alexander holds the record for pinch running appearences in the modern era with 271, 73 more than Otis Nixon. For he career he recorded 374 games played while accumulating only 195 plate appearances, making him one of only 7 players with more GP than PA.

by Ciderbeck on Jan 12, 2012 4:58 PM PST up reply actions

Meh

I see your point, but I’m not such a fan of Pierre, even though he is a demon on the basepaths. He gets thrown out a lot, and considering the fact that he isn’t all that great of a hitter, he would probably get dropped to the bottom of the lineup. He’s also a lot older then he used to be.

by Sean Fortuna on Jan 12, 2012 8:38 AM PST reply actions

He’s also a lot older then he used to be.

Excellent point. Though I’ll say the same for Weeks and that’s a good thing.

Don’t mean to nag, just a funny turn of phrase out of context. Pierre is a great example proving that speed and baserunning are skills that hold up well over time, despite conventional wisdom saying old guys would slow down. I disagree with your assertion that Pierre gets caught too much. He’s maintained a career 75% success rate, which is right a threshold of acceptable risk according to the statheads. A bad 2011 sure, but that came on the heels of a career year on the basepaths in 2010. His bat though, ugh. Not horrible, but it’s all empty batting average with slap singles and no walks.

by Ciderbeck on Jan 12, 2012 5:05 PM PST up reply actions

He wouldn't be high on my list, but I do think we need one more starting OF.

Make the young guys earn their spot.

Enter arbitrary sig line here

by theoriginalrods on Jan 12, 2012 8:58 AM PST reply actions

I do agree with you about Base Stealing being underrated, but I don't know enough about WAR to back this up.

Enter arbitrary sig line here

by theoriginalrods on Jan 12, 2012 9:12 AM PST reply actions

in Pierre's case

I think that WAR correctly dings him for the low success rate (for 2011 in particular, he has had better success rates in other years). Running a lot is just not that valuable if you’re getting thrown out 35% of the time.

by colin on Jan 12, 2012 9:31 AM PST up reply actions

I mentioned this in another post, but I'll assert again:

2011 is quite the outlier for Pierre. Over his career he’s had a 75% success rate with stealing. And has pretty much maintained that level consistently, with 2011 being a down year. Is he dropping off a cliff? Maybe. But speed ages well.

by Ciderbeck on Jan 12, 2012 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

75% is basically the breakeven point.

Any less, and you’re actually hurting your team. Any more, and it’s a net positive. Since his career mark is exactly 75%…his basestealing has basically been a net zero.

by danmerqury on Jan 12, 2012 7:45 PM PST up reply actions

Good point. Thanks for steering me straight on that.

I’ve previously just thought more in terms of black and white about the breakeven point. If you can get above 75% then you should be stealing bases. Beyond that I never really cared too much about the exact amount of extra value.

Kind of funny when you think about poor ole Pierre that way. Juan, you’ve stolen over 500 bases and it’s amounted to exactly nothing.

by Ciderbeck on Jan 13, 2012 2:26 PM PST up reply actions

I love Jemile Weeks

But until he learns how to not overslide the bag, he isn’t a “great basestealer”

by biscuit530 on Jan 12, 2012 11:01 AM PST reply actions

It's funny you mention this.

I was just doing FA research and thought to myself that Juan Pierre would be a great addition. Then I logged into AN.

I think this is a great idea. He isn’t too old and he isn’t “too” expensive. He has never hit under .275, so even if that drops because of Oakland he would still hit around .250 which would make him one of our best hitters. Plus he steals tons of bases.

Homeruns are rare in Oakland so having very fast players that can get on base and get around the bases to score a lot quicker would be very beneficial.

Based off of his previous salary I think we could sign Pierre to the same contract we gave Coco. 2yr/14mil with a 3rd year option at 7.5mil with a 1mil buyout.

Another player I think would be a good sign for DH and OF help is Johnny Damon. He is still a great player and I think we could land him for a 1yr/5-6mil with a 2nd year option.

by Mike Siegel on Jan 12, 2012 11:46 AM PST reply actions