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Around SBN: Rondo On Slowing Heat: 'They've Got To Hit The Deck, Too'

In Honor of Brandon McCarthy, Destroyer of Worlds

On September 3rd, while facing his 18th batter of the night, Brandon McCarthy threw an 89 mph cutter to Brendan Ryan. Ryan popped out into foul territory. There wasn't really anything special about that particular plate appearance, other than that it came in the middle of a masterful ten strikeout, zero walk, three hit complete game shutout. But with that foulout, Brandon McCarthy reached a season mark of 139 innings pitched, on the A's 139th game of the season. Which, according to MLB Official Rule 10.22(b), qualified him for the season-ending pitching title. And...

Brandon McCarthy currently leads the American League in FIP.

No, seriously. Not Verlander, not Sabathia, not Weaver, Haren, or Hernandez. An astounding 2.76. He's scheduled to make his final appearance of the season tonight, and he holds an 11 point lead over the second place pitcher, CC Sabathia. For all of the talk about Verlander being an MVP candidate...McCarthy is leading him by 23 points.

The A's signed Brandon McCarthy on a tiny $1MM one year contract, after Brandon had been out of the majors since 2009. After five lackluster seasons, the former top prospect power pitcher decided to reinvent himself, turning into a Halladay-esque control artist who relied on movement and deception, rather than blowing hitters away. What a find.

But how great has this season been? How about in A's history? By FIP- , he has a 71—his FIP is 29 percentage points greater than league average. That's the third greatest season by FIP in Athletics history since the deadball era. The only others? Vida Blue in 1971 (65), and Lefty Grove in 1930 (64). That's it.

So hats off to Brandon McCarthy, for sneakily having one of the best pitching seasons to ever come in an Athletics uniform. Good luck, tonight, Brandon. Here's to many more.

Brandon McCarthy and the A's take on the Mariners in the first game of the last series of the year tonight. First pitch is at 7:10.

Comment 127 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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So this is how bad our seaon was, huh?

You have to make up some goofy obscure stat that shows we lead in something to make you feel better

FIP

That’s hilarious. I have the official stat we lead in… Errors and unearned runs; FIP on that!

by Screamer on Sep 26, 2011 7:17 AM PDT reply actions  

I wouldn't go that far

Though I still have a hard time understanding why FIP just doesn’t care that he gives up a hit per inning, or that he gives up hits generally. It’s not all out of his control.

With that said, I’ll take a guy that keeps the ball in the park and never walks anybody every day of the week.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know what the concept is

it just doesn’t make any sense to me. It’s certainly a useful observation, but my hunch is we just aren’t capable at the present time of truly understanding the pitcher’s role in influencing the nature of hitter’s contact.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

There is some role

But much less than conventionally thought.

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not comfortable saying that definitively

I think it’s more likely it’s not well understood, and won’t be for some time. But, I loves me some methodological doubt.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

FIP!

I am a stalwart champion of methodological doubt, but I love FIP. It’s the stats that don’t throw out balls in play that concern me. I’d rather have a stat that refuses to measure that which it cannot measure than one that pretends to measure accurately when it’s really just chasing noise. Of course FIP is not perfect, but there’s no pitching stat I like better, traditional or untraditional.

FIP is what it is. It treats all balls in play equally, which we know is sound on the large scale but presumably gives room for outliers in small samples. And the fact that McCarthy’s fWAR and rWAR diverged so ridiculously this year is a strong indication that he’s an outlier.

Still, outlier or not, I think it’s very cool that he’s the king of FIP this year. (Indeed, if it’s a crazy fluke I think that just makes me like it even more.)

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Possibly

But FIP excludes it completely.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 26, 2011 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's been rather thoroughly analyzed

Pitchers certainly influence it, but that influence is very much less than those of the batters and especially the defenses.

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

The fact that it's been thoroughly analyzed doesn't give me the comfort it does many people.

Analysis is made to eventually be replaced by different analysis. I have no qualms about trusting my gut in defiance of it.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

it's a free country

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

as in being impossible for Croatia to be a free country?

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

On a separate vein, I really like the Springfield XD-9, which is made in Croatia.

It is a finely made handgun, that fits my small hands well. I definitely want to get one.

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

that "It's" refers to different countries

for you and me, making “it” the wrong world.

But that’s what sayings are for – so it’s OK.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, whatever

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

mobius will correct me if (when) i’m wrong, but i’m pretty sure his comment was not political in any way. it was logical, specifically, the logic of the statement vis a vis we’re not all standing in the same country.

when EC replied to jeepers that it’s a free country, my first reaction was, “which country does EC mean?” when i saw MK’s comment, i thought he was going after the same question i wanted to know but he chose words to express that sentiment, while leaving the door open for other sentiments to be read in. EC then took it personally because, hey, if they call you by name or provenance sometimes you do take it personally.

bu if we put MK’s “says the guy in croatia” in relation to my “which country are you referring to?” rather than “you don’t know anything about free countries and how could you, you ex-commie freak!!!” we see that possibly MK was drawing attention to this little bit of logical humor: if A) EC means the country EC is standing on, then it doesn’t help jeepers at all, and if B) EC means the country jeepers is standing on, then it’d be funny that EC would appeal to freedom as a cognitive tool with which to arrive at a conclusion when he himself is probably using other, more rigorous tools.

MK’s follow-up corroborates my understanding, even/especially the part where MK (i’m sorry MK) is still not picking the right words and thus making things worse when actually trying to explain. and i made them worser by reviving to smooth things out when i could have left the topic dead even if everyone was feeling a lil sore.

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

*but he chose words to express that sentiment that left the door open for other sentiments to be read in

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point.

I initially read the comment in the way that is potentially offensive, but now that you mention it I can see it wasn’t necessarily meant that way.

Anyway, I think the country EC is standing on right now is Germany.

I’m very curious to know if the saying “It’s a free country” is common outside of America. It feels like a very American saying to me, even aside from any question about whether America is more or less free than other countries. It’s hard for me to imagine, say, a Swede saying, “it’s a free country” as an idiomatic way of suggesting you do what you want and I’ll do what I want.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

it has to be unitedstatesian in origin, but i can see how our movies might have taken it to new frontiers. i do wish though that we could retroactively change all mentions of it to “it’s a social-contract country” just to see what would happen.

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know about it being used anywhere else

And I only use it when talking/writing in “USA-cultural-environment”

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks AV

And freedom is not given to us by our countries anyway! We own it ourselves.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

very nicely explained

and no offense taken on my part, just some curiosity to what stands behind that comment

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't mean to offend

or make any jabs at Croatia.
Most of my knowledge about Croatia comes from you, and you have been an excellent ambassador.
I recall your post about meeting Mike Piazza (unless my memory is faulty.) which was way cool.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

all is cool MK

yup, that was me – thanks

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I should have remember the first rule of commenting

Better to remain silent an be thought a fool,
than to open your mouth and removed all doubt.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I had a similar approach when batting

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

funny, the spanish saying about not saying dumb stuff applies to fielding more than to batting: a closed mouth catches no flies.

(and i’m glad that misunderstanding is cleared up.)

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uh oh.

Not sure where you were going with this, but you might want to step back now.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

The analysis is quite rigorous. Extremely, even.

That’s what happens when something comes out that is so counter-intuitive like this. It’s tested again and again and again, because people don’t believe it…until the numbers refuse to budge.

Are we throwing out a little baby with the bathwater by completely ignoring hits? Yeah, surely. But just a little.

by danmerqury on Sep 26, 2011 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

THIS. IS. SPARTA.

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

FIP predicts ERA significantly better than ERA, regardless of the fact that it doesn't account for hits.

Ultimately, that’s why hits, other than home runs, are negligible.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Sep 26, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Except... where do all those runs come from if not primarily from hits?

I’m inclined to bow to the wisdom that says ’tis better to render hits negligible than try to use an incomplete or mystical way way of judging hits as part of a system ’o measurement.

Because pitchers do have a greater than zero impact on balls in play and I can’t help but wonder if it’s greater than the makers of FIP imagine. Defensive metrics are designed to figure out where a ball lands in a specific zone; from that it determines whether or not Joe Smith should have fielded the ball. FIP does not factor in where a pitch crosses the plate or where the catcher sets up prior to the pitch… just two important factors that are readily quantifiable given the current level of technology. Pitch location can have a dramatic impact on where the ball goes if and when the batter makes contact and pitch location is entirely on the pitcher.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 26, 2011 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

is giving up lots of HRs correlated with other things?

If you think of HRs as balls hit really hard that go over the fence, then pitchers that give up lots of HRs will also give up lots balls hit very hard that do not go over the fence, but come close? (ie doubles, sac flys, triples)

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not just that.
Though I still have a hard time understanding why FIP just doesn’t care that he gives up a hit per inning

It’s not just hits that FIP ignores hits. FIP also ignores any ball in play that becomes an out. The idea is that since we can’t meaningfully distinguish a pitcher influence that makes a BIP an out rather than a hit, it’s better to equalize all of them into the average result.

Analysis of how FIP correlates to ERA shows pretty clearly that treating hits as hits and outs as outs does not make the number more accurate in measuring “true talent”. (As opposed to measuring actual results, which of course it does better.) Other stats have evolved which attempt to use batted ball data or other means of distinguishing good balls in play from bad balls in play. Many in the sabermetric community (including the majority on AN) think this is an improvement and that those stats are slightly better. Others in the sabermetric community think that the batted ball data and/or the regression analysis are sufficiently suspect that any identified patterns are more likely to be erroneous than not and thus the new stats are worse than plain FIP.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

sigh

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is supposed to a joke, right?

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

No

This creature has a fat history of stupid attacks like that

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Boo, I say

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

well, McCarthy has a number of errors

if we’re going to discuss things under the pitcher’s control, perhaps we should include their own fielding abilities?
FIP+UZR=FIEPP ( Fielding Independent Except Pitcher Pitching )

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

ERA has the same problem, though, of course

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 26, 2011 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

it does, and I don't understand it

If a pitcher makes an error preventing the 3rd out, then gives up runs, those runs should count against him. It’s his own fault, not someone else’s. He earned them.

It’s weird these don’t count toward ERA to me.

by 4-6-3 on Sep 26, 2011 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

also weird:

error with two outs that would have ended inning – all runs after that are unearned, no matter how many home runs you give up. I suspect RA is better than ERA as predictive pitcher performance.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 26, 2011 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

but if an E counted against his ERA, how would that make it any better of a pitching metric? the E doesn’t come from the pitching at all. so i interpret this pitcher’s E rule as accounting for one person wearing two different hats, as if the pitcher becomes a regular position player when the ball’s in play.

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Except good fielding pitchers get credit for that skill in ERA

If a pitcher nabs a hard grounder up the middle and turns it into a double play, that play is reflected in his ERA. If he heaves the ball into CF, it isn’t.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 26, 2011 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

i’m not mathematically astute enough to see the difference between that and if another infielder either fielded cleanly or threw it away… help?

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

He didn't make anything up

It’s a real stat, and you’re completely off the mark if you think it’s about feeling better about things.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 26, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yup, DM made that stat up himself.

Sigh. GO AWAY.

"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime

by travdog6 on Sep 26, 2011 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

That was actually a compliment in disguise

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 26, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're on the wrong blog

Try Halos Heaven – you’d fit in perfectly there.

I don't feel that I'm feeling your feelings, about these feelings that you feel.

by doctorK on Sep 26, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

you need

to take the time and learn more about FIP.

Slegna must die!

by Athletics fan and runner on Sep 26, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Willrum Wallace exclaims, "FREE RUM!"

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 7:38 AM PDT reply actions  

and we have him for at least one more year

Watching him in the second half and I could tell he is special, (not that special LB get your head out of the gutter). Now FIP means jack to me but when he is on the mound I feel like the A’s will win. It has been a while since I have felt that, (big three era was the last time) and it feels good.

"Like I said, it’s like me giving you a high-five and chest bump after you hit for the cycle against the kid in the wheelchair." Vacafan on May 14, 2010

by adragon on Sep 26, 2011 7:44 AM PDT reply actions  

not to mention that McCarthy is hilarious on twitter!

seriously, it’s been a pleasure to watch him pitch.

by OaklandSi on Sep 26, 2011 7:45 AM PDT reply actions  

Brandon McCarthy's greatest contribution to the 2011 season:

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 8:04 AM PDT reply actions   5 recs

Trufax.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

And even better now

seeing the results of the season.

Good Job Brandon!

by longtimeasfan on Sep 26, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the interesting info Dan

Hadn’t looked at his full stat line in a while and didn’t realize quite how good he’s been. The HR rate looks a little low, and you can’t expect him to maintain a 1.5 BB/9 rate going forward. There’s going to be some regression and he’s always going to be an injury risk, but it really does look like he’s a new man.

Thoughts about shooting for a long term deal with him? I wonder what his asking price would be.

by thelincolndude on Sep 26, 2011 8:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Too much of an injury history for a long-term deal

Though the fundamental changes he made to his mechanics when he reinvented himself should mitigate those risks. Something creative could work, such as a series of escalating team/player options. Otherwise, he’s still under club control for next year and should be treated as such. Besides, the A’s just said they don’t want to keep any good players, anyway.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think this is actually a perfect time for a longish-term deal

$15M/3 years. Get him while he’s relatively cheap and under team control. It’s more than anyone else will offer him and, if he has a season close to this again, he’ll have more than paid for that.

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

You wouldn't have to guarantee that much

He’s looking at ~ $2.6 million via arbitration. If I were the A’s I’d offer him 2 years guaranteed with a 3rd year team option. He’d be 31 at the end of the deal, assuming the option was picked up. $3 million for 2012, $4.5 million for 2013 and a $7 million/$500K buy-out for 2014.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 26, 2011 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think McCarthy would as well

He’d be guaranteed to make as much in 2013 as he did from 2005 to today. He’d have financial security for the first time and an opportunity to pitch in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Plus, at 31 he wouldn’t be too old to land a major FA deal to set-up his grandkids grandkids if he pitches well over the next few years.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 26, 2011 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's also smart enough that 8M (assuming a buy out) would probably be enough to set him up for life anyway.

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fuck yeah, that would be lovely.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

That works, too

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd have to do a google search for the article, but McCarthy basically said he knows when the shoulder issue is coming

and how to manage it now so that he is able to lessen the amount of time he misses, and he’s good for like 160-170 innings.

Oop. found it.

This is the part about the injury:

Neyer: Like a lot of pitchers (but perhaps more than most), you’ve suffered a number of injuries, including a stress fracture that cost you a big chunk of 2007, an elbow injury that cost you most of 2008, and of course the shoulder injuries that cost you most of 2010. From 2005 through 2010 — six full seasons — you averaged 76 innings per season, largely due to the injuries. What kept you going, through all the surgeries and rehabs and watching instead of pitching?

McCarthy: First off, I’ve been extremely fortunate to not have had any surgeries. I haven’t really even gotten close to needing one, either. My shoulder injuries, have all been the same exact one. It’s a scapular stress fracture/reaction, and it’s unbelievably rare. There are five documented cases in baseball, and I’ve got four of them. It better be named after me, so at least I have something to show for all of this.

The injury in itself isn’t major and when it heals, it truly heals so that’s what’s kept me going. When I have it, the pain can be excruciating, but after seven days of rest, it feels like I have a new arm. So while it’s mentally defeating to miss so much time, knowing that it’s just one injury that doesn’t have residual effects, keeps me from ever really getting too down. I have no idea if it can be prevented but have come to peace with the idea that this just might be something I have every year, which turns my focus to how to best deal with it. In the past I’ve rested much longer and then went through the full rehab process, which eats up a lot of time. This year, I noticed the symptoms earlier so I had to take only two weeks off before getting back at it.

Going forward, my hope is that recognizing it early can save me from a lot of DL time. I might not be able to get 200+ innings a year in because of it, but if I can work around the injury for 140-160+ innings a year, then there’s a career to be made out of that.

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

His intelligence is really astounding.

I don’t know if he’ll be successful actually implementing this management strategy, though. It’s probably a lot harder than it sounds. Certainly happy that he’s an Oakland A for now, and in all likelihood for next year, and if he’s a productive one for longer than that, then great.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Sep 26, 2011 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

he obviously understands that he'd command less guaranteed $$

than a similarly good pitcher who is more likely to pitch 200+ innings. I think a multiple year contract would be reasonable for the A’s to pursue with him.

by OaklandSi on Sep 26, 2011 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

I wonder how much of this year's injury was getting drilled by a liner in the start before he went down

Or if he would have gotten the stress reaction anyway?

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Huh. This is really interesting, and his handling of it next year may show that he really is a guy we can tie up in a longer contract.

Also, he should totally get it named after him, that’d be badass.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think you absolutely can expect a continued low walk rate

It was already decent in the past and with the way he’s revamped his style of pitching I see no reason he can’t maintain the above-average control he’s got.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 26, 2011 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree, but there's a difference between above average and his performance this season

It would be foolish not to expect some regression in his BB rate. The only starters you can reasonably project for a BB/9 under 1.5 are Halladay and Lee. That’s top 5 in all of baseball in any given year.

by thelincolndude on Sep 26, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sure

But 2 or 2.5 would still be great.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 26, 2011 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Brandon McCarthy is one of the few highlights from this season.

Both on the field and on twitter.

Dude is incredible, hopefully next year will be both healthy and awesome for him. I am SO HAPPY we get him one more year! It keeps me from drinking myself to sleep at night. :(

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 8:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Um, why?

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why what?

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why would it keep you from drinkinig yourself to sleep???

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

The team makes me sad. :( Brandon makes me happy.

My liver likes it when I’m happy!

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

...and when the women are happy,

THE WORLD IS HAPPY!!!!

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

True that.

The wealth of the world is measured in women’s smiles.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe the A's should pole the AN Hotties before making player decisions.

The stadium might just fill up, and the team will start winning!

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry, "poll"

“pole” sounds dirty.

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Plus his wife is way way cool.

Seriously, even if he sucked at baseball I would still want the team to sign him to an extension because he and Amanda are so cool. If he’s actually good, that’s just bonus.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty much.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Sep 26, 2011 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Boy, you sure didn't say this about Kouz.

He is a really good ambassador for the team and baseball in general.

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Me? or just generic "you"?

I had no strong opinion about Kouz either way.

He does seem like a good guy, and I admired the way he handled his surprise demotion. Also, he has a cool name.

But he’s not Brandon-and-Amanda awesome.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not you specifically, iglew. I was teasing AN in general.

I was just trying to lighten things up a bit. I know most here understand that we can’t keep players just because they are nice.

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

but seriously folks...

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Sep 27, 2011 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

hehehe

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 27, 2011 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

did Kouz even have a twitter account?

If not, no comparison. If so, I will have to look at them side by side.

by Billy Frijoles on Sep 26, 2011 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

He had one, but barely ever used it

I think it was @Kouzmanoff

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Vida Blue and Lefty Grove

you could do worse for company than those two names.

"If we start getting into that sh*t, we might as well get out the plastic sheeting and have an orgy." --Gaijin Suketto

by emperor nobody on Sep 26, 2011 1:29 PM PDT reply actions  

McCarthy's WAR split

fWAR = 4.7
bWAR = 3.7

Not as extreme as it was earlier in the year, but still pretty significant.

All of our starting pitchers had wacky fWAR-vs-bWAR splits this year. Probably because of our ridiculously inconsistent defense.

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 1:43 PM PDT reply actions  

FUCK YEAH KEN KORACH 3 YEAR EXTENSION THROUGH 2014!!!!!!!!!

Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR

by mikev on Sep 26, 2011 2:01 PM PDT reply actions  

Can he bat cleanup, and play 3rd?

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Woooooo!

That’s the best news of all!

Link

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 26, 2011 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Going to the game tonight at Safeco!

Last A’s game of the year for me most likely! I’ll be reppin that gold Suzuki freebie jersey in the upper deck.

by nateinberkeley on Sep 26, 2011 5:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Can we sign him for forever?

Someday her tombstone will read,
"Here Lies MissOakland Barton. Hot baseball wife, beloved friend, defender of aprons." --Kyli

by MissOakland on Sep 26, 2011 8:55 PM PDT reply actions  

After tonite, McCarthy...

… what’s his FIP? His FIP is really bad now

Can I plead the FIP?

I think every morning I take a FIP; wanna see?

by Screamer on Sep 26, 2011 8:57 PM PDT reply actions  

You jinxed him, Dan

You jinxed McCarthys’ FIP. Now his FIP is broken. He doesn’t have the same FIP as he did before the game. You broke his FIP

by Screamer on Sep 26, 2011 8:59 PM PDT reply actions  

in the words of most of AN...

STFU

I don't feel that I'm feeling your feelings, about these feelings that you feel.

by doctorK on Sep 26, 2011 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

just leave

"I'll guarantee this: The A's will have a better season in 2012." - George Zimmer

by cuppingmaster on Sep 26, 2011 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

it’s been a long time since i saw anyone with this much numerico-diacritical acumen. it may have been 1997. or it may have been 24.

by AV on Sep 26, 2011 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

24 people in attendance and Coliseum is once again sold out!

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 27, 2011 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

that’s what i thought too!

by AV on Sep 27, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

In all seriousness, Dan

I think FIP and WAR and every other new “stat” that some lonely m/f behind a computer can think up to justify the players value is basically bull

We know when a player helps a team and when he doesn’t. I know we need McCarthy back next year. I know he helps us win. And I don’t need to break down 64 different stats and divide by 2 to tell me that

by Screamer on Sep 26, 2011 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

And in all seriousness,

go bitch about it on someone else’s blog.

by danmerqury on Sep 26, 2011 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Game, Set, MATCH!

"Trying not to rec a "F**k the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."

by Tutu-late on Sep 26, 2011 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's all well and good for you......you have the choice to not read these articles and keep your opinion to yourself.

HOWEVER, there are some people who DO like to know about and understand these stats. They also like to discuss them. So – if you are not interested – simply don’t read those articles.

AN Tailgate = Euphemism for food porn.

by Berry Jo on Sep 26, 2011 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Considering the guy's had an account for over two years and doesn't even have 50 comments here...

…AND most of them are full of crap like the stuff in this post, I’m not terribly inclined to care too much what Screamer likes or doesn’t like.

Last of the Ninth - Photography

by Flashfire on Sep 26, 2011 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're making everyone dumber.

How has this guy not been banned?

"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime

by travdog6 on Sep 27, 2011 1:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Funny

I thought that lonely m/f behind a computer spend their time trolling

2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too

by elcroata on Sep 27, 2011 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

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