More Fun With Historical Strikeout Rates

by danmerqury on Sep 13, 2011 7:01 AM PDT

Last week, the A's telecast on CSNCA ran an onscreen graphic that stated that Gio Gonzalez's strikeout rate of 8.90 per nine innings is the highest single season mark in Athletics history. And it's true, in the literal sense—the next best is an 8.80 season by Todd Stottlemyre in 1995. But this is a clear case of numbers being used to distort, rather than inform. Gio has been good, to be sure, but historically good? I don't know about that. Earlier this year, I wrote about how strikeout rates have increased over time, and how you can't compare strikeout rates between eras. For example, Bob Feller's career K/9 is 6.07, which is well below average by today's standards. But for 1940s baseball, 6.07 is incredibly dominant.

Now, I'm sure this isn't a new idea by any means, but the change in league average just screams to me that it deserves the "+" treatment. ERA+ is ERA scaled around each season's league average, where 100 is the average. So an ERA+ of 125 means that the pitcher was 25 percentage points greater than the league average of the year. Why not create a K+, so that Bob Feller's strikeout dominance relative to his peers can be compared to a modern pitcher? Plus, we could actually compare Gio's 2011 season to all others in Athletics history.

Now, when I did the previous post, I only gathered enough data to span back to 1940, so I'm going to stay within the boundaries of 1940 to the present. But since 1940, these are the best seasons by any Athletic by strikeout rate relative to the league average rate of the season:

Vida Blue — 160 (1971)
Lou Brissie — 159 (1948)
Bobo Newsom — 147 (1944)
Todd Stottlemyre — 139 (1995)
Bobo Newsom — 135 (1945)
Jose Rijo — 132 (1986)
Jesse Flores — 128 (1943)
Barry Zito — 128 (2001)
Orlando Pena — 127 (1964)
Lou Brissie — 127 (1949)

Gio Gonzalez's 2011? It ranks 13th, at 125. Which is nice, of course, but not nearly as historic as the CSNCA graphic would have you believe. That 1971 season by Vida Blue? There's one for the ages.

The A's move on to game two of their three game set against the Angels tonight. Jerome Williams faces Guillermo Moscoso at 7:05 PM.

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Not to mention

we once had a player named Bobo.

"-i never said half the things i said." --Yogi Berra

by Ovale Fan on Sep 13, 2011 7:56 AM PDT reply actions

gotta love the old school names

"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli

by cuppingmaster on Sep 13, 2011 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I read somewhere that he was best man at Connie Mack's wedding.

Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day

by PDXAthleticsfan on Sep 13, 2011 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

LOL

by Billy Frijoles on Sep 13, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Why is this

Does this change have to do with emphasis on patience? More batters are striking out because more pitches are being taken?

Or, conversely, since pitchers no longer go nine innings they don’t bother pacing themselves and throw harder from the start, causing more strikeouts in fewer innings….

by richwol1 on Sep 13, 2011 8:14 AM PDT reply actions

I was wondering if it had to do with a greater emphasis on power.

"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime

by travdog6 on Sep 13, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Are walk numbers up?

also if you are comparing DH / no DH years, you will need to be careful.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 13, 2011 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Breaking down by decade, it looks like they have overall gone down

BB/9 in the AL averaged 3.8 in the 40s and 50s, 3.3 in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, spiked to 3.58 in the 90s (along with the power spike – no surprise there), then back down to 3.3 in the 2000s (I’m including the last two seasons). Even adding the DH in the 70s didn’t seem to drastically affect walk rates.

Linky here

Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day

by PDXAthleticsfan on Sep 13, 2011 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Also, looking at the link

the K/BB rates have increased over the years, and, if this season holds true, will shatter last year’s record – currently 2.25 K/BB; last year was 2.11 K/BB. In the 20s, 30s, and 40s, the ratio was under 1, meaning there used to be a lot more walks than strikeouts.

Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day

by PDXAthleticsfan on Sep 13, 2011 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

There are lots of little things they do

to tweak the pitcher-vs-hitter relationship over the years. Composition of the ball, composition of the bat, height of the mound, etc.

But I think the largest single factor with regard to strikeouts is what sort of strike zone the umpires are calling. I think just predominant umpire perception fluctuates from year to year, but more dramatically the actual definition of the zone does. For example, in 1996 the bottom edge of the zone was moved from the top of the knees to the bottom of the knees. So that alone makes it marginally easier to strike a guy out.

(Summaries of strike zone history at MLB.com or Baseball Almanac.)

Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree

by iglew on Sep 13, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Whatever happened to that Zito character, anyway?

I don't feel that I'm feeling your feelings, about these feelings that you feel.

by doctorK on Sep 13, 2011 8:15 AM PDT reply actions

downsized to a bungalow in Fresno

"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli

by cuppingmaster on Sep 13, 2011 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions

zito never made into unicode

sad but true.

by MobiusKlein on Sep 13, 2011 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Haha

Ahhh, nerd jokes.

by Synx on Sep 13, 2011 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions

Not surprised that Vida is number one. He was nearly unhittable in 1971.

JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker

by JJ Martin on Sep 13, 2011 8:52 AM PDT reply actions

nice work, Dan.

by Billy Frijoles on Sep 13, 2011 11:07 AM PDT reply actions

Well done dan.

This is cool stuff

Get out the time-fracture wickets, Hobbes! We're gonna play Calvinball!

by UrgentMirth on Sep 13, 2011 11:14 AM PDT reply actions

excellent Dan

We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley

by Future Ed on Sep 13, 2011 11:45 AM PDT reply actions

Very interesting

I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 13, 2011 1:46 PM PDT reply actions

DAN IS THE MAN

Another well done posting.

"The Most Interesting Man in the World is Brandon Allen" - the World
"Brandon Allen is what I'm talking about" - Willis

by jemilesathletics on Sep 13, 2011 3:46 PM PDT reply actions

Very interesting indeed

I Remember the Todd Stottlemyre 1995 season pretty well. I remember it being fairly average. Just like I’m going to remember Gio’s season as being slightly above average and maybe below his capabilities.

Thanks Dad for another awesome post.

by Beane's Brain on Sep 13, 2011 3:52 PM PDT reply actions

Excellent as always!

by Cartwright on Sep 13, 2011 4:58 PM PDT reply actions

Ahhh, Bobo

A flamboyant style and wagging tongue led to the many travels of Bobo Newsom, who changed uniforms 16 times in his 20-year career. Finally on a winner, he won 21 games for the pennant-winning Tigers in 1940. The burly right-hander won Game One of the World Series, pitched a shutout in Game Five just days after his father died, and came back to duel Paul Derringer in Game Seven. Unfortunately, he lost the critical game, 2-1, but pitched what he called the best game of his career. Often pitching for mediocre teams, Newsom still managed to win 20 games for the seventh-place Browns in 1938, and garnered 211 victories in his long career.

Quotes:

“Congratulations on buying pennant insurance.” — wire message sent by Bobo to Brooklyn manager Leo Durocher when the Dodgers purchased Newsom in September of 1942.

“I don’t go in for strikeouts any more. It doesn’t get you anything. Look at that Bob Feller, wearing himself out getting strikeouts. It’s for no good.” — discussing his pitching strategy, 1946

http://oldsite.thebaseballpage.com/players/newsobo01.php