2012 Players and Salaries

Also agree that Swisher back in Oakland would help both us and Nick. I’ve heard from Yankees fans that Cashman wants to cut his salary in half, and if he refuses, Cashman may listen to offers.

considering that he’s been worth 21 WAR over the last seven years (3WAR a year) and he’s just 30 years old, he’s a relative bargain at 10M next year.

I’d look to resign Harden to a 1-2 year deal between $2-5.
Might take a 1 year flyer on Dontrelle Willis – help him rebuild stock like Adrian Beltre did. Small sample size (23 innings) this year, but not bad with a 50.7% GB rate and .39 HR/9 rate (.60 in 75 innings at AAA).

If we look to a hitter, I think it would have to come through a trade. Not much meat on the FA market this season which will push up the price on marginal players (see John Lackey deal).

I’d like to bring back Crisp/Willingham along with the manager. I think those guys can be the “veteran presence” but still be hungry to win.

Everyone else….2012 is sink or swim in anticipation of 2013. Figure out what ya got, and who needs to be replaced for a successful run.

The lineup seems ok if we get production out of one of them. It’s possible Choice could crack the ML roster at some point during the season.

The pitching is…ugh.

Ross is totally undependable.
McCarthy we are definitely keeping, but has injury issues
Harden, I guess I would keep but has injury issues and he is nothing special.
I am hopeful Moscoso will improve because his K/9 and FIP in AAA was pretty good, he is still learning to pitch at the ML level and I think we can expect some improvement.
Gio is great but inconsistent.
Cahill as you mention is a total wild card. He will likely stay healthy but right now I trust Moscoso more than him. WTF is up with his non-sinking sinker?
Our backbone needs to be pitching. We could have a league average lineup (which would be awesome compared to our recent shit fests) but if we have a league average staff (which is what this looks like), then we will be an average team.

If only we had anderson and braden, I would feel much better about 2012.

The only way Willingham is back is if he accepts arbitration which isn’t likely. He is looking for a multi-year deal because it will be his last payday at this point in his career. He will get offers of 3 year 18M type of deals, but that is too rich and risky for the A’s to commit. Besides, we stand to gain a pick if we lose him.

Pitching-wise heading into 2012, I think the rotatin looks like Gio-Cahill-Ross-Outman-???. Getting a 4th or 5th starter in FA shouldn’t be too difficult or costly. Our BP is rock solid with the emergence of FDLS.

My point is we do have the cash to go after 1 or even 2 high calibre hitters, a la Prince Fielder. The concern is whether they want to play for an organization with an iffy ownership future.

- I think we offer Harden arbitration. His 2011 salary is so low that he shouldn’t get a huge bump and even for half a season I think he is worth it. He might decline though so we could follow with a 1-2 year contract offer.

- I’m not entirely sure Barton or Sweeney will be that expensive. Coupled with all the rounding up of league minimum salaries I think we have another $1M+ to spend than what you show.

- I doubt we keep Powell if he is going to cost $1M. We have Donaldson and Recker wasting away at AAA and they can match Powell’s production. That saves another $500k.

- There is a good chance we keep Wuertz or trade him. 1yr @ $3M is a good price for a reasonably good reliver if he is healthy. If we drop Wuertz, I think we also drop Breslow. If we needed money elsewhere, those are two guys that could go either way. My guess is that we keep both since we will likely be spurned by most free agents and that money needs to go somewhere.

- Everyone seems to agree we need 1 more starting pitcher. Yu Darvish would be awesome, but we will more likely sign someone who is injured or coming off a down year. Maybe we can have Bedard, Harden and McCarthy… that would be exciting.

- I don’t see a lot of likely options for the rest of the money on the free agent market. I think that is why we will make a hard push for Crisp and Willingham. Bringing in an expensive 1B doesn’t seem to be a good idea when we have so many internal options at 1B and we would undoubtedly have to overpay for anyone else. We may try to upgrade 3B if Aramis Ramirez is out there. SS would be an obvious upgrade spot but Reyes will cost too much, Rollins is too old and likely an NL-only player and Furcal sucks and already spurned us once.

- I really think the excess money is going to go towards pitchers or trades. We could do moves like we did for DeJesus and Willingham. Players like Moscoso would prime candidates to move as they put up good numbers but we all know they aren’t that good. Cardenas, Sogard and Rosales are also likley trade pieces. Beane just needs to wait until guys are made available and he can run in and get them at a bargain without giving up any prospects that are part of the long term plan.

He’s potentially the only Free Agent who can’t refuse to sign with us only because he doesn’t want to play in Oakland.

With the posting fee, it will be like a front-loaded contract, which might be more palatable to the A’s.

Hopefully it works out better than our last Japanese FA hullabaloo. Oh, wait, he’s represented by Don Nomura, same guy as Iwakuma. Never mind.

or in a deal that avoids arbitration. (In case you were estimating and not just putting any number for number’s sake)

Look at this table:

They are all good young closers, first-year arbitration eligible.

Papelbon and Street avoided arbitration by agreeing to one year deals.

Bailey’s ERA and WHIP are close to those Papelbon had in his first three years, but his saves are significantly lower. Also, Ohlendorf ruling showed that arbitrators are somewhat looking into advanced stats, too, and Papelbon had better K/BB ratio. He also didn’t have any health issues in his first three years like Bailey and Street did. So, Bailey should get less than $6.25m.

And although Bailey’s advanced stats are comparable to Street, his traditional ones are same or better (he should collect some more saves till the end of the year), especially ERA, which still weighs heavily in arbitration. Add two more All-Star appearances and Bailey has a good case that he should get at least the same increase Street got, if not better. And just adjusting for his higher previous salary and the fact that salaries in MLB increased some 20% between 2007 and 2011, a comparable increase to the one Street got would put him at $4m. So, Bailey should get at least $4m.

Chad Cordero actually went to arbitration. He asked for $4.15m, Washington offered $3.65 and the arbitrators sided with Cordero. That was actually one year after Street signed his contract with the A’s, so it could be that Street was being used as a comparison. Apart from saves, Bailey has clearly better stats, both traditional and advanced and more awards. When you figure Bailey’s lower starting salary on one side and higher salaries in MLB in 2011 as compared to 2008, Bailey should get at least $4.5m. And that would be if arbitrators/front office viewed him as Cordero’s equal.

The biggest question is how much of an issue will health be and what exactly is in Bailey’s medical records. If that doesn’t weigh him down substantially (and his DL time is comparable to Huston Street), I think a salary in $4.25m – $5.00m should not surprise anyone.

Kendrys Morales will probably be healed by ST next year. The Angels have Trumbo at 1st, and he’s not going anywhere. I wonder how little they’d take for Morales?

I would like to see the A’s trade with Minnesota for Michael Cuddyer.

So weird, right? PONY UP, LEW.

Well, let me put it another way, I don’t see us signing any major free agents. Hence, Willingham at DH is probably a good move for us…3 years, sure, why not? If he DHs, he likely won’t be hurt and he’ll likely put up 20 HRs and 80-90 RBIs/year. I can live with that. Best since Frank Thomas.

As was pointed out, the only FAs likely to sign with us are pitchers, 2nd tier. So, let’s narrow the discussion, which 2nd tier Ps would you bring onboard?

How much could we figuratively spend now, using $75M as the basis.