Home Run Value, Revisited
by elcroata on Aug 2, 2011 9:28 AM PDT
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I'm going to tattoo this on my back.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
This is absolutely superb!
The next question is “what kind of offense does outperform against good pitchers”? Baserunning? BB? SLG? BA?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
Wouldn't the answer to that be "none" because that's kind of what really good pitchers do (shut down offenses)
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Well if HR-heavy offenses underperform, something must outperform, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 2, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Unless the answer is that bad offenses outperform and good offenses underperform,
in which case we’ve got that covered
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 2, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily. It's not a zero sum thing, is it?
I guess it depends on what the performance is being compared to? League average? I’d expect all offenses to underperform against good pitchers.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
EC just showed that HR-heavy offenses were more worse against Aces than HR-weak
offenses. If it’s also true that SB-heavy offenses, 2B-heavy offenses, 1B-heavy offenses, 3B-heavy offenses, BB-heavy offenses and HBP-heavy offenses are also more worse against Aces, it would indicate that a Balanced Offense is the best bet against Aces, no?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 2, 2011 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know. I was asking, too.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'd guess that it doesn't really matter
I wouldn’t go so far to call 4 percentage points a decisive edge – this is still in the same ballpark. I’d think the same is true for other mixes but can’t tell without some research which, at this moment, I am not planning to put in.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
If you're normalizing for wOBA
Then baserunning, because it is a skill that can generate runs that isn’t accounted for by wOBA.
EC: would it be easy to see how wOBA + baserunning value correlates to runs scored? It would seem that you’d get higher than .91.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
True
R = .97, R2 = .94
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
That's about as good as you're ever going to see
I had no idea wOBA was THAT accurate.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Sooo excited to read it!
now ill go read it
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
So awesome man.
You’re freaking brilliant.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Thanks
And if I haven’t told you yet – I love the nick!
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I am much smarter than I was 20 minutes ago. Thanks!
And I still love my sig-line!
"Lako je tuđim kurcem po koprivama mlatiti / It’s easy to beat on the nettles with someone else’s dick." - elcroata
Man, if only someone had been saying this for years.
::whistles::
(very well done though)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Well I have to admit it, you have convinced me.
When I read the debate between you and (Nico?) the other day, I tended to agree with the intuitive idea that HR are a disproportionately valuable commodity. Having read what you wrote and studied, I have come to see it differently and that is why I am commenting for the first time in a great while. Thank you for the work!
The way I understand it – and correct me if I’m wrong, HR are not undervalued, they are in fact valued at exactly where they should be. That is the point of these metrics – providing valuations of outcomes in a baseball game that contribute to runs scored, and then to winning ball games. Thus, if we have correctly valued all of these outcomes (bb, single, double, triple, hr, etc), then they can add up in any different combination to “5 runs scored” and be equally valuable. In other words, a team of Ichiros could match a team of over a long period of time.
The trouble with the A’s is not that we don’t have power, it is that we don’t have good hitters. Sorry if this is all redundant.
I think elcroata and I were actually talking across each other,
in that I don’t take issue with any of this (which is beautifully researched and laid out, by the way; kudos, elcroata) but am a believer that a certain amount of “balance” is important beyond what the best available data suggest. It’s important to have different threats to beat different kinds of pitchers, and to have “guys who get to 1B a lot” (OBP) followed in the order by “guys who advance runners more than a base at a time” (BA/SLG). It’s not even so much “HRs” as what we saw on the last homestand: Weeks and Crisp getting on a lot, moving themselves over a lot, and Matsui/Willingham driving them in (not just walking to set things up further for worse hitters).
Something I’m curious about. What do the simulations show for guys like Rich Becker (remember him?) who walk a ton but don’t do a whole lot else? My point is that too much OBP, without some BA or slugging, is a recipe for a lot of LOB but not a lot of ways to score.
This year’s rendition of Jack Cust is reasonably a pretty good model (except then he tanked so badly that even his OBP wasn’t that good), but using Becker his career line was .256/.358/.372.
How would a lineup of “9 Beckers” that all batted, say, .250/.360/.370 do? A lineup with a team OBP of .360 should rock and roll. But would it? How about compared to a lineup that all batted, say, .280/.340/.420? Or a lineup that had half .265/.360/.350 and half .265/.330/.450?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Against an average pitcher I don't see why the shape of Whoa Ba would matter. Isn't
Whoa Ba calibrated so that the weights work against the opposition as a whole? Now we know that it doesn’t really matter against good pitchers either.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 2, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know how to calculate wOBA
But I imagine the lineup with the highest wOBA would win the most games.
In your final paragraph, you ask how a team of .360 OBP would compare to a lineup of .280/.340/.420 hitters. I think that this is confusing the point a bit. wOBA does the work for you by factoring in the values for different outcomes and letting you know the impact this player has on scoring runs. And elcroatia shows that HR don’t disproportionately effect wOBA… so bringing the slash lines back into the question changes the terms of the debate.
So when you ask how a lineup with .280/.340/.420 would compare to half .265/.360/.350 and half .265/.330/.450, I would say: ask someone smart to calculate the wOBA for an answer.
Of course, I am in over my head with the statistical stuff, so I could be wrong. I do think balance is important as well – but a balance of productive hitters is the key point. Reyes has 4 HR but is among the league leaders in wOBA.
I actually don't think balance is important to any significant degree.
When the guy who determined optimal batting orders did that, he figured that having your best hitters bat in the 1,2,4 positions was optimal. He didn’t find that having your highest OBA guy first was optimal.
The only time shape of Whoa Ba mattered was a very slight slant toward SLG in the #3 spot compared to the #5 spot. So to the extent that balance matters at all, I suspect it’s by the tiny amount that having the better OBA between two equally good hitters in the #5 spot and having your better SLG in the #5 spot was better.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 2, 2011 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, ok I see that.
But a slight tweak to my question: would be if it is better to have a narrow or wide distribution of wOBAs in a lineup? In other words, is it better to have a bunch of slightly above average hitters… or a team with two excellent hitters coupled with average to slightly below average hitters? Or is the irrelevant because the average wOBA would be exactly the same?
By the way, I fully realize that competing against the Brandon Allen thread right now is about as futile as the time when gravity tried to coax his home run ball back to earth.
I think balance in this case involves a team that has a versatile offense
A team like last year’s Blue Jays relies to a tremendous degree on HRs to score runs. If they play a game in a very low-HR environment — say, against a pitcher with extreme GB ratios, or in cold weather, or with a strong wind blowing in from the outfield — they’re stuck. They have one way to score runs, and if that doesn’t work, they’re out of ideas. A versatile offense can adapt to a variety of circumstances.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
This is my point.
Thank you for articulatifying it so nicely.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So then basically your point is that you want GOOD hitters and not just HOME RUN hitters?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
That's always been my contention
I’ve never said you don’t want good hitters.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The closest you came was when you said
“If you’re parents are gone and you want to sneak out, you don’t want good sitters.”
by LoneStranger on Aug 3, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Do you have a good sister?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
If your contention is that between EQUAL hitters you'd prefer more homers
(i.e. Stairs over Hargrove) that doesn’t bother me.
But how much wOBA are you willing to sacrifice for that power?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
A little but not a lot
I can’t give you exact numbers, but “more than .000 and less than a bunch” is the basic idea.
Mostly yes, I’d take Stairs over Hargrove on this team. If I had a team that was “Stairs heavy” I might take “faster base stealing same wOBA as Stairs”. Or I might just take the escalator.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Few points with that
I do not think that any offense really adapts to circumstances. You hear it all the time from hitters themselves, how they do worse if they try to hit a HR because they are in Colorado or Fenway or because Jamie Moyer’s fastball barely reaches double digits. If you start changing your hitting approach because of the stadium or the weather, you are pretty much screwed.
Also, on the whole idea of a balanced, versatile lineup. If having an unbalanced lineup was detrimental to the team’s ability to score runs, we would have seen it in the correlation between wOBA HR% and Delta runs in the second chart. As it turns out, it’s not detrimental.
Perhaps Blue Jays scored fewer runs against GB pitchers. If they did, they made up for it in other situations – in the end they scored just as many runs as they would had that mix been different.
I think many people think that having all offensive weapons in balance will lead to a team scoring 4.38 runs every game, whatever the circumstances. Not only is there nothing out there to suggest that, but there is also a question whether having constant run production as opposed to well distributed one would lead to more games won.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I don't think that completely contradicts my point
First, I don’t think it’s a matter of individual hitters changing their hitting styles, it’s that some styles of hitting are better suited to particular playing environments, and if your entire team is adapted for a limited set of environments, then the wrong offensive environment can throw the team for a loop. A team that needs to hit HRs to score can have problems, say, against a GB pitcher in Wrigley when the wind is blowing in. If that team has guys who tend to hit line drives and steal bases, as well as guys who hit homers, then the lineup, as a whole, can deal with the extreme offensive circumstances.
There’s also the defensive side to consider here, since you can’t construct an offense separately from a defense. Unless you have the resources to acquire and keep 5-tool players, building a lineup of sluggers will generally mean degrading your defense, if only because big, slugging OFs tend not to cover as much ground as small, fast guys. So there is a tradeoff here, as well, that will have an impact on the RS side of the pythagorean projection and, thus, on wins.
The environmental tradeoffs are less noticeable than they used to be — 30 years ago, a team with 3 slow, slugging OFs could have big problems visiting KC or St Louis: cavernous parks with green concrete Astroturf surfaces that turned routine singles into triples if the OFs couldn’t cut them off and that limited HRs. That’s part of what made the 1982 World Series so interesting. Nowadays there’s virtually no Astroturf, and huge OFs are very rare. I think the physical environment in the majors is much less variable than it used to be, much more standardized, and even though Astroturf was an abomination the variety was actually one of the really cool parts of the game in the past.
As far as the statistical evidence for this is concerned, I don’t think it would necessarily show up in the data above, largely due to SSS. But it could pose a problem in limited circumstances, like a key, late-season series, or in the post-season.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Or it could be a tremendous advantage, no, depending on the opposition?
[imbalance] could pose a problem in limited circumstances, like a key, late-season series, or in the post-season
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2011 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
If the opposition doesn't have the players to adapt
or the environmental circumstances happen to be favorable, then yes.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I think this piece proves that at least vis-a-vis HR, balance is not important
Of course in real life you will never have 9 of the same hitters anyways….but…if you are choosing between signing two players who have identical wOBA’s, choose the cheaper one, regardless of how the wOBA’s are created…
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, this
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Cheaper when their defensive contribution is taken into account, as well.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Apparently you are
He was thinking you were concerned about scoring runs, and proved that the way to score more runs is to increase your wOBA (and it doesn’t matter how).
You, it seems, are instead concerned with aesthetics / minimizing LOBs. An all walks team might well strand more runners and be uglier to watch. The question is: so what?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 2, 2011 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You consistently hear "slugging" as "HRs" and "walks" as "wOBA"
I’m all for balancing our lineup out with “doubles and triples machines” and not wild about adding another walk-heavy OBP guy. Chances are, the guys I like will have better wOBAs than the guys I don’t, so once again we’re not actually at cross-purposes in our conversation, other than my desire for enough “quick strike capability” to keep teams honest.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not sure I've ever heard that, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here?
You consistently hear “slugging” as “HRs” and “walks” as “wOBA”
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I keep hearing the same circular argument:
“We don’t need HR hitters, we need good hitters! … Good hitters are hitters with a high wOBA! … wOBA gives a lot of credit for HRs!”
Yes, if you had a bunch of Jose Reyes’ who hit tons of doubles and triples, you wouldn’t need “HR hitters”.
Yes, if you had a bunch of guys who walked so much they could hit .240/.420/.340 you wouldn’t need much else.
You need a lot of things in order to succeed in scoring runs. Getting on base, and slugging, are high among them. Getting hits (BA) gets you on base, and hitting HRs helps you slug better than any other kind of PA, hence their relevance despite not being a “be all and end alls,” or solutions in and of themselves.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 3, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
How much wOBA are you willing to sacrifice for slugging?
The answer for me is zero.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
That's not a circular argument. That's 3 facts presented one after another.
Yes, we need good hitters. Yes, good hitters have a high wOBA. Yes, wOBA gives a lot of credit for homers.
This still does not mean that we have to actively seek out guys that hit home runs because we don’t have enough guys that do it now. We need guys that don’t suck at hitting – period, bottom line, exclamation point, etc.
For instance. Willy Mo Pena. HOME RUN HITTER. We don’t need him, he sucks at everything else. That would add a shitload of balance to the lineup though.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
If you HAD to pick one thing, though, to figure out guys with the highest wOBA
If you picked “high HRs”, you’d be right most of the time and find a good hitter. Wily Mo Pena is an exception to what is otherwise a reasonable rule. If you picked high walks or high doubles or something else, you’d find some mediocre hitters, some good hitters, and some superstars.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not some mystery what a hitter's wOBA is
That’s not the question.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
See my comment at the end
That may help with my point, which is that low HR selects for worse hitters than high HR.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Again: so what?
We don’t need to use a (very) rough approximation for what we want. We can instead talk about what we want.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I've never advocated adding Peña for exactly that reason.
I’m not keen on hackers who HR at the expense of all other key skills.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Here's a concrete example (though an old one)
1985 season:
A’s 1B is Bruce Bochte: .295/.367/.439 14 HRs .357 wOBA.
Royals 1B is Steve Balboni: .243/.307/.477 36 HRs .341 wOBA
The argument is that, no matter how HR-deprived your lineup is, you will do better with Bochte than Balboni, even though Balboni will hit 22 more HRs. Maybe not all that much better, because I don’t think .016 in wOBA adds up to a whole lot in terms of wins, but it is a difference in production.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
And I agree with that, which is why I'm not sure why we're "arguing"
I have no interest in the Steve Balbonis, precisely because they HR at the expense of too much of too many other key skills.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So then you don't want HR hitters as much as you want good hitters?
And balance isn’t very important after all?
Gosh… why did I think we disagreed.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
No. You either don't understand or don't want to.
But I remember why I prefer not to converse with you, so this exchange is ovah.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So, to recap
1. You want HRs
2. You don’t want to sacrifice wOBA (at least more than a tiny bit)
Therefore wanting HRs at the expense of anything can’t be that important to you.
Yeah, I’m the asshole for pointing that out.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
An aside- I picked up the nickname Balboni in high school.
One guy thought I looked like Steve Balboni and it stuck. At first I was like, WTF? But then I just let it go and today when I see people I went to school with, some still say “Hey, Balbo!”
Was it the handlebar mustache?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No, but now that I think about it, I don't think many of them have actually seen the handlebar yet.
I missed the last few unofficial December reunions.
by LoneStranger on Aug 3, 2011 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I wouldn't have naturally confused you with a fat bald guy.
Woah…Steve Balboni is Santa Claus! No wonder you can’t make those December reunions…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So then my question is "why do hitters underperform their advanced metrics
when they come to Oakland?" I don’t know that they actually do that, I’m just frustrated by Willingham and CoJack walking less when they get here, DDJ being unable to hit, etc. Basically I’m asking what we’re doing wrong.
John 3:16
"If they want to pay me like Mike Gallego, I’ll play like Gallego." - Rickey Henderson
that is a separate question, but a good one.
CoJack has basically been out of baseball for a few years, so hard to know what “underperform” means.
Willingham is basically at his career norms now.
DDJ…well…not sure.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
way i see it
A home run is like a hole in one. If you don’t hit one, you have to do some work putting (running around the silly bases) to get the run. As Happy Gilmore put it:
“That was so much easier than putting. I should just try to get the ball in one shot every time.”
Falcon Punch!
Yes. A HR is better than any other offensive outcome
This is factored into wOBA.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
That's why a HR is worth 3 walks in wOBA.
It definitely is the most valuable shot.
What EC is saying is that if you have a guy that hits 30 HRs per year, and you have another guy who doesn’t hit HRs very much, there is some combo of walks, singles, doubles, and triples that the other guy can do that can make up for HRs and be equally as valuable.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
What dwish was saying still holds though
There are guys with moderate power and guys with prodigious power who lead the wOBA rankings. But there really aren’t guys who hit less than 10 HR there. So, power (while not HUGELY correlated with wOBA), is still sort of a proxy for good hitters.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
totally.
there are very few great hitters that don’t hit HRs. The greatest hitters hit HRs and hit for average, and walk a lot. Henderson, Bonds, etc., are infinitely more valuable than the wade boggs style of great hitter.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
to add to that...
yes, hitters with high batting averages, obp and high HRs are great hitters. You don’t need advanced stats to figure that out at all. We can all look at the back of a baseball card and immediately tell if the guy was a great hitter.
But when comparing 2 players that are mixed bags, where one is not obviously better than the other, wOBA is more accurate.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly this
And we aren’t going to sign Albert Pujols anyway, so he doesn’t really matter.
I think it’s interesting to know that Mike Hargrove’s career line would be an equally good DH as Matt Stairs’, since I bet you could buy it for less money.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I think it's more useful in evaluating the "just get us someone who hits HRs" argument
Does a home-run deprived offense need a low OBA HR-hitter? Steve Balboni was that kind of guy for the mid-80s Royals. He managed to put up his best season, .359 wOBA and 3.0 WAR in ‘84 when they won the series. Dave Kingman did that for the A’s for 2 years, too. The argument here is that any other .359 wOBA player in 1984 — I dunno, Pat Tabler was similar but with only 10 HRs instead of Balboni’s 28 — would have been just as productive offensively.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Whoops, sorry, the Royals won the WS in 1985. 1984 was the Tigers.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
'The tl;dr crowd'
Awww. You clearly thought of me when adding that didn’t you? I’m touched.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
This is fantastic.
Awesome job, and an even more awesome read! Keep up the good work EC!
Your 2011 Athletics:
You can't spell Athletics without an "E".
B-but ... chicks dig the HRs!
Especially those hit by BRANDON ALLEN!
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
AN chicks dig wOBA.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. —Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
by pam5981 on Aug 2, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
BRANDON ALLEN HATER!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
nah, I just pretend to be one.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. —Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
Means to an end.
The funny thing about baseball is that people will believe what they want to believe. —Joe Posnanski 8/29/09
wOBA wOBA wOBA
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Aug 2, 2011 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
"Hey, baby, wanna come back to my place and compute my wOBA?"
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Since I inadvertently started this debate...
I love the graphs, everything is wonderful and I agree with you to a point. I am a stathead, I believe in the numbers and long advocated that wOBA is way better a judge that whether or not a team will win or not. I get the argument that it doesn’t matter how you get to the wOBA just that it be high. That all said, I think there is a psychological value to a team that has at least one HR hitter. I don’t think the stats can demonstrate that, and while I know it is extremely unpopular to talk about intangibles with many of my fellow fans of sabermetrics, I think this psychology manifests itself in us as fans too. When you play the Yankees, you know you face a good portion of that lineup where the guy standing at home plate with no one one feels like a guy hitting with RISP. As a pitcher, I have to think facing that sort of a person is intimidating, just look at the foolishness we saw with pitchers attempting to avoid Barry Bonds.
So while I agree that you CAN win without a HR hitter and that a whole boatload of singles can get the job done just as well, a run is a run after all no matter how you get it, I think there is a value there to having a guy like that in the lineup regardless – an immeasurable one.
Everyone now can skewer me. Thank you, love the work though!! :D
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You're conflating HR hitter with great hitter
Which makes sense, since nearly all great hitters have power (though not all great players). Sure people were afraid of Bonds, he has one of the 10 best wOBAs in baseball history.
I guess what I’m saying is that it may well be true that players are more afraid of Matt Stairs than Mike Hargrove, but both were equally good at producing runs at the plate (Stairs was much worse in the field, so you’d prefer Hargrove overall, but we are just talking hitting here). I think the problem here is that people have built this amateur-psych story and refuse to believe anything that contradicts it.
I mean, the correlation between a prediction based on wOBA + baserunning is nearly PERFECT at predicting actual runs scored. There just isn’t any space for intangibles to make any difference here.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
I'm not disagreeing at all
With wOBA being the best indicator. That is a statement I’d have agreed with and still do. I guess maybe I wonder how many Ichiros are there managing a great wOBA with a low ISO? I wonder if this entire argument is moot because the vast majority of high wOBA guys have a good degree of power anyhow – and a quick glance at Fangrpahs confirms it. Everyone on the top wOBA list has double digit HRs except Jose Reyes (#17), Michael Young (#28), and Yunel Escobar (#40) among the top 40. So in some ways, my point still holds because power clearly is something truly helping players achieve a high wOBA. So theoretically this argument holds up wonderfully but in practice it doesnt really (both Young and Escobar also are at 9 HRs while Reyes at 4 is the only one who is likely to finish the year without at least double digits).
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Again, you're on the wrong thing
No one is saying HRs aren’t good. We are saying they aren’t necessary. To quote myself: “nearly all great hitters have power.”
But winning baseball games isn’t only about great players, it’s also about useful and average ones. And down there people succeed in a lot of different ways. It’s important not to chose a lower wOBA simply because they hit more HRs since you’re hurting your team.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
We're saying the same thing.
I am not saying sacrifice wOBA just to get a guy with a lot of HRs. I’m saying, as you are, that most good hitters with a high wOBA will tend to have more power. :) There are exceptions of course like Mark Reynolds or Dan Uggla, and thats a reason I’d never advocate getting those types.
But while we say they (HRs) aren’t necessary, given that they tend to go hand-in-hand with a high wOBA, this whole thing is to a degree a straw-man argument. I know we can win games with 9 Ichiros, or 9 Jose Reyes’ but the fact is they are few are far between, so ultimately my original comment that spawned this was that “we need HR guys”. Sure, technically that isn’t true in the sense that we need wOBA HR guys or Ichiro/Jose Reyes types, so in that sense I am guilty as charged for being a little ambiguous. But I am agreeing with everything written here, but feel that ultimately any of these high wOBA bats are going to have power anyhow so it isn’t a terribly stupid or erroneous comment to make that we need power bats. It can be further detailed, but the premise largely holds – though of course as noted there are exceptions.
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Cool, so we all agree?
Next time someone says “We need a HR hitter!”, you will jump in and say “No, we just need a good hitter, regardless whether he hits HR or not?”
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
We need Willy Mo Pena. He is a HR hitter.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
MOAR HOME RUNS
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Exactly this.
There’s no strawman about it. We could play games all night finding a higher wOBA with lower HR totals. The fact that the very best hitters tend to have both is irrelevant. We aren’t getting one of them anyway.
And, of course, sluggers tend not to help with the other components of winning games: baserunning and defense.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
What I meant is
I never refuted that it was not possible or that wOBA was a poor metric. I feel in practice this is more a theoretical argument because most top wOBA guys tend to have more HRs.
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by dwishinsky on Aug 3, 2011 5:47 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
wOBA and HR have R2 of .53
they are only moderately correlated
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
He may have used the wrong comps for his argument
I would say that there aren’t a lot of Michael Bourn or Jemile Weeks type players out there – guys who literally hit less than 5 HR a year but are valuable bats because they spray doubles and triples all over the field. The other good hitters have power, but it’s got a lot of noise – Shane Victorino hits 10-15 HR a year (.398 wOBA), whereas Curtis Granderson (.399 wOBA) is going to launch 40+ HRs this year.
On a related note, I wish we could have swung something for Bourn. He’d be perfect for us.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately we have very little in the way of prospects.
Not that the Braves gave up anything great.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 3, 2011 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah; in fact, I think they're the team we might match up least well with as trading partners
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
For the third time
IT ISN’T ONLY ABOUT THE TOP wOBA GUYS.
(did that sink in?)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
So you're saying it's not just about the top guys? :D
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
But the five best hitters all hit a ton of HRs
So this is all pointless.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
We are saying the same thing, in a way
There are exceptions of course like Mark Reynolds or Dan Uggla, and thats a reason I’d never advocate getting those types.
That’s why saying “We need HR hitters” is a poor way of saying “We need good hitters”. See, in order for your statement to make sense, you have to add something to it, like “We need HR hitters, but not those who are lousy hitters. What I actually mean is, we need good hitters. And if they don’t hit many HR, but are still good, then I’ll take those, too”.
So, yes, when you use the longer version of your statement, then we are saying the same thing. But, then you are not really saying “we need HR hitters” anymore, are you?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Fair point
So yes we need good hitters who tend to also be HR hitters ;)
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by dwishinsky on Aug 3, 2011 5:45 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
About just as often as they tend to have good batting averages
So, you are saying we need guys who hit for high batting average?
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Anyway, I think I can live with your new phrase
baby steps, baby steps :)
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Baby steps yes!
What’s funny is I am totally on board with the idea. I think it could be an inefficiency to exploit encourage guys to play in the Coliseum etc.
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by dwishinsky on Aug 3, 2011 6:48 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
no...
So yes we need good hitters who tend to also be HR hitters . It just might be more fun to watch homeruns, but a .400 wOBA with 25 home runs is the same as a .400wOBA with 5 home runs.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
So having double digits home runs in a year classifies one as a HR hitter?
Well, we’re fine then, Suzuki FTW!
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I felt it wasn't a terrible cutoff
For around 1/3 thru the season
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by dwishinsky on Aug 3, 2011 5:48 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
2/3s!
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by dwishinsky on Aug 3, 2011 5:48 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure, bottom of the 9th, down by 1, you definitely want a guy up there who can threaten to tie the game with one swing
it is probably easier to hit 1 HR than string 3 walks in a row together.
But imagine, bottom of the 9th, down by 1, you actually do string 3 walks in a row. The whole team will be very confident of scoring that run, and probably scoring more than 1 and walking off with a win.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
And, of course, if you have a better offense you'll be in that situation less often.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
good point.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
But how many times will you face a guy who's going to walk the bases loaded to begin with?
I mean, there’s Jose Valverde and guys who are an adventure (5 BB/9 or so), but that’s sort of an exception
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
The batter has more control over drawing a walk than you think he does
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
right, but you get even one walk, and suddenly a double becomes as valuable as the solo hr.
of course you always want the best possible hitter, but HRs at the expense of all else won’t be the best possible hitter.
I think we agree, maybe my example was a bit ludicrous too.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 3, 2011 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks and welcome
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Very well done.
I’m not a fan of the pink, but that’s just nitpicking. Now the question is, what high wOBA players out there are undervalued, and how do the A’s get them?
I'll go back to green and gold the next time
Somehow choosing that style when discussing home runs seemed to be in poor taste.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
slightly off topic
but when you compare wOPA and OPS, are they both linear with respect to runs created? is a 0.010 change in wOPA worth the same amount of runs whether its from .320 to.330 or from .400 to .410? how many runs is 0.010 worth? how much is .100 of OPS worth?
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
wOBA was actually designed with this in mind.
Let’s look at a .010 change in wOBA. All you have to do is divide by 1.15 and multiply by the number of plate appearances. So over a full season of 650 PAs? The .330 batter is better than the .320 batter by the same amount that the .410 batter is better than the .400 batter:
(.01/1.15)*650 = 5.7 runs.
10 runs still a win?
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
OPS overvalues slugging and undervalues OBP
It’s a good “gateway” stat in that it is MUCH better than batting average and easier to understand than wOBA.
It’s also older.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
it's also one of the easiest to say in person.
I still don’t know how to say FIP and wRC+
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Okay so i've been saying FIP right...
i’m guessing wOBA is like WOAH buh
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
that's how I say it
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
i think whoa buh is better.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Face it nevermoor,
I’m older and I have more insurance.
by LoneStranger on Aug 3, 2011 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Heh
I’m saying older as a good thing because it has made it into TV broadcasts / ESPN / Stadium scoreboards.
It’s a fine thing to use to compare players, especially players with similar hitting profiles. The only thing is that where it disagrees with wOBA it loses.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
its also way easy to find...
OPS does have a large variance when it comes to value… i remember a tom tango article about how the composition of a OPS affects the amount of runs scored. but its r2 is really close to wOBA. like, really close.
"If people don't know who he is, they'd better turn on the television and check him out."
great read
thanks!
This is most likely my Swan Swong- Oakwin2004
I have an idea to improve this, if it's not too much trouble elcroata
How about you create an artificial break between HR hitters and non-HR hitters. Let’s say 20 HR. So, you can call the less than 20 HR group the “Daric Bartons” and the 20+ HR hitters the “Wily Mos.” Now, run the correlations again between wOBA and HR separately. What’s the correlation between the Daric Bartons and wOBA?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
I don't want to sound rude
But it is too much trouble. I did write that preemptive caution, though. Thanks for understanding.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Also, the correlations ran
are not between wOBA and HR, they are between wOBA and R and HR and R. You can only do this for teams, individual run production doesn’t make much sense
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Fair enough
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 3, 2011 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I think one really cool direction someone could take this
would be in the projectability of different types of players’ wOBAs. That is, the real question we want to answer is probably, “What types of players do we want the A’s to keep/acquire?” And one way to answer that would be to explore whether certain ways of creating a given level of wOBA are more stable and projectable than others. Are HR-dependent hitters more likely to experience luck-based slumps or blips? What about BA-dependent players, or guys who derive a lot of value from BBs?
There’s probably nothing to find there, but someone who’s good at devising statistical studies (i.e., not me), and who has access to the stats, could analyze this pretty quickly. I’d hope that the A’s have already looked into this, because they clearly should have the resources and the interest.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Yeah
My spitball would be that HR hitters are streakier because their success is more park-dependent and relies upon fewer higher-value events. Whereas a Daric Barton is going to walk/1B so frequently it would be improbable for him to have a long stretch of no value.
Given that HRs are harder to hit in Oakland, it would seem to make sense to get people who don’t need ’em to succeed.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
that, or to get people that hit it so damn far that it doesn't matter.
(enter brandon allen)
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
What I like about Allen is that along with "no doubt dinger" power
he seems to have pretty good BB rates and be able to play decent defense.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Bill Petti just did a five part piece on hitter volatility on BtBS.
It’s a tenuous correlation at best, but the data seems to show that volatility correlates the strongest with K%, BB%, and ISO, with the strikeout correlation being negative. So yes, HR hitters and guys with lots of patience tend to be the streakier ones.
Why are BBs so volatile?
(“Walks,” not “Billy Beane’s” — we know the latter.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
It's got some correlation, but not too much correlation.
I wouldn’t say they are “so” volatile so much as “kinda” volatile.
But BB% correlates with volatility essentially because hitters with higher BB% tend to be better hitters, and better hitters have a wider range of ‘usual’ results, most notably in that their peaks will likely be better than the peaks of weaker hitters.
Cool, thx for the "X-plan" (explanation)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Also, a correlation between stability and player BABIP.
Which is fun, because BABIP tends to correlate reasonably well with player speed, which intuitively correlates well with player defense, for which current metrics appear to be quite volatile.
Let us acquire the players who are less volatile in the batters box, but for whom much value arises from their glove-work, where the value we currently attribute to them tend to be very volatile!
Michael Bourn comes to mind. He has a high BABIP, right? Player stability achieved!
Anything but…
wOBA (09,10,11): 109, 97, 127
UZR (09, 10, 11): 9.9, 19.4, -6.4
On the other hand, Bourn appears to be on track to strike a third straight year with a near-even 5-WAR total. How does one evaluate such a player? Depending on the individual’s regard to defensive analysis, Bourn can be anything from a paragon of consistency to an unreliable gamble.
Looking into the future is hard :-p
by dregarx on Aug 4, 2011 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bourn's GB/FB has risen dramatically this year, IIRC
He seems to be hitting fewer FBs than in the past, which could easily be the reason his BABIP has gone up. If that change reflects a deliberate change in hitting approach, it could be replicable in future seasons.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
The Coliseum effect
This is going way back to 1980’s era editions of The Baseball Abstract, but back then Bill James argued that in stadiums like the Coliseum you’ll do better with high HR offenses because the environment makes sequential offense (that is, stringing lots of guys getting on base in a row) so incredibly difficult.
Basically, it’s easier for a pitcher to create an out in the Coliseum than in most other parks, so you don’t want to rely on getting lots of baserunners. That means you need power to take better advantage of the PAs that don’t result in outs.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
It makes sense with the theory that HR are more important in a lower run environment
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 4, 2011 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
That's not really what Coliseum effect is about
you’ll do better with high HR offenses because the environment makes sequential offense (that is, stringing lots of guys getting on base in a row) so incredibly difficult.
According to every park factor analysis I’ve seen, Coliseum suppresses home runs more successfully than it suppresses runs in general. That means that an offense that depends on a HR to a higher degree, will lose more of its value playing in Coliseum than an offense that does not.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
by elcroata on Aug 4, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's an interesting question
I tend do come down with ec (in part because the Baseball Abstract was both groundbreaking and not-always-accurate), but I can see the counter story.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Well yes if the park suppresses HR more than other things you don't want
HR hitters at the expense of equally effective hitters of other persuasions.
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 4, 2011 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
In James' defense
it’s likely that the Coliseum plays differently since Mt. Davis was built — and, more importantly, this is all comparative, and the only AL teams that haven’t changed stadiums (or done major revisions to the park they play in) since 1985 or so are the Angels and Red Sox. It might suppress HRs now because the White Sox are in US Cellular instead of Comiskey, and the Rangers are in the Ballpark and not their old place in Arlington, and KC shortened its power alleys etc etc.
It’s also the case that the successful Oakland teams have been power-hitting teams. The early 70s dynasty finished in the top 3 in HRs every year but one between 1971 and 1975, and never finished that high in OBA. Same thing 30 years later with the Big Three teams. The Bash Brothers teams always were near the top in HRs, though they also had very high team OBA’s as well.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
DINGERZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The 1971 - 1975 teams were so successful because they were in Top 3 in runs *allowed* every year
For all their home runs, the early 70s dynasty finished in Top 5 in runs scored only twice, incidentally the two years where they were also in Top 10 in OBA.
And good point about changing conditions and relative park factors.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
by elcroata on Aug 4, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Semi off-topic
The Angels have a had a huge redesign since 1985, doing basically a reverse Mt. Davis addition. But that made me wonder, I wonder if small things like the seats on top of the Green Monster make a diff?
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Probably to the fans sitting in them.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
IIRC, speed (SB) and OBP tend to be pretty stable,
while BA and SLG will vary more (probably as functions of inherent fluctuations in BABIP). Not sure where “HR rate” falls in there. And I could be wrong about SLG. And about everything else.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Rec'd
Awesome work elcroata. And excellent follow-up explanations in the comments. Thanks for your contributions to this website.
I honestly feel lucky to get to read stuff like this and get smarter for free.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Aug 3, 2011 7:51 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
So you haven't gotten the bill yet?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Thanks NSJ
Remember me when your kid signs with the A’s and I come asking for the game tickets
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
But But But But But...........
Chicks dig the long ball.
Nice work!
by OnlybuyBeaneJerseys on Aug 4, 2011 12:04 AM PDT reply actions
They do, don't they?
Thanks
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Excellent Article
And, while we’re on the topic of homeruns, here’s a look at just how bad Daric Barton is:
Dan Johnson: 1 HR in 78 AB
David Cooper: 1 HR in 33 AB
Chad Billingsley: 1 HR in 36 AB
Jeremy Hermida: 1 HR in 18 AB
Dontrelle Willis: 1 HR in 12 AB
Daric Barton: 0 HR in 236 AB
by Jason James on Aug 4, 2011 1:33 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks
Unfortunately, I think even Don Johnson had a better year
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I don't wanna be a dick, but that guy just BLEW YOU OUT OF THE WATER.
Nice “analysis” up there with all the graphs and shit. BARTON HITS WORSE THAN PITCHERS.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Aug 4, 2011 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dude, Dontrelle hits HR more often than that Pujols guy
Let’s sign him to DH!!!
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I would not be opposed to an experiment converting Dontrelle to a hitter.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 4, 2011 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd prefer Micah Owings
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
What a great pickup he could be:
A solid middle-long reliever and pinch hitter. Gives you the equivalent of a 5-man bench.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Seriously
You save one spot by that
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Especially if we stick to the every other player on this team is a member of the bullpen philosophy
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Get Swisher back
and then sign Andy Marte (after all, he struck out Swisher)
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Finally read it.
So awesome, as usual. I’ve read around here a lot that in OPS the OBP part is worth 1.8x as much as the slugging part, but their correlations are almost identical. Does that mean that OBP isn’t worth that much more? Boy math is confusing.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Sweeney would have caught that.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
HR adds unpredictability, curtails wOBA value
Friend Hrvat: As you know, statistics is an analysis tool, not a predictor of future events. That is why, for small value events, like single hits, it can be a valuable tool, almost a predictor of outcomes, since AVG is not a statistic that fluctuates wildly. However, if you want to talk about the value of a homerun-hitter in winning games, the only applicable stat is his average number of HRs per season, if he has a long track record. For a new player, a homerun-hitter has an impact that is matchless. I have the memory of Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, Willie Mays, Jose Canseco, Mark McGuire coming up, and the impact they exerted on games via potential threat at every at-bat. This could be evaluated, and I think it would take a .600 AVG hitter to equal the game pressure of one Willie Mays. The only comparable influence is a very successful base stealer – the whole game is disrupted when he is on the basepaths, as used to happen with Ricky Henderson.
Furthermore, even wOBA rates isolated events, rather than a situationally designed lineup. A homerun-hitter requires to be surrounded by specific type players, to maximize his value – high OBP hitters in front, and high AVG players after. His value decreases dramatically when there are no such players in the lineup – such as the well-known case of Ernie Banks on the Cubs. Of course, the best alternative is a balanced lineup, like the Reds Big Red Machine of the mid-70’s. However, that type of team is almost impossible to build nowadays due to contract restrictions.
In other words, high wOBA should be an almost-predictor for a full season, barring sudden changes like in the case of Kouzmanoff and Barton, while impredictable factors are the appearance of a homerun hitter in the lineup and the short-series effect, like for Playoffs and World Series. That is where the human factor comes in, confirming the lack of predictability in stats.
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