The New Moneyball: FREE ________ NOW!
by danmerqury on Aug 16, 2011 9:44 AM PDT
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PrintIf you google "the new moneyball" and take out anything with the words "film", "movie", or "trailer", you'll get something around 1,470,000 results. People want to know what Billy Beane's new strategy is. Obviously, he isn't playing the OBP and HR game like he did in the early part of last decade. Sluggers with low batting averages that walk and hit homers just aren't undervalued anymore. No offensive attribute is. With the advent of statistics like wOBA, describing past offensive performance is, for the most part, completely solved. We know how much a walk is worth. And we can say, with a pretty impressive degree of accuracy, that your average home run is worth something around 4.3 walks.
And young prospects, well, that's done and gone, too. In the past, top prospects weren't valued as much as they are now. Teams are loath to give up top prospects for anything but an obscenely valuable package in return.
So what's left to exploit? Where is a poor team going to get its wins on the cheap?
Blocked non-prospects.
And that's exactly what Billy Beane has been focusing on recently. The trade targets that Beane's gone after have been hitters that are too old to be prospects, and yet, have great numbers in the minor leagues. And because of a player entrenched at the position in the parent club, they languish in AAA. Think Nelson Cruz. Now, obviously, these trade targets tend to be very volatile players with a high bust rate, but for cheap wildcards, Beane seems to be doing pretty well.
Jack Cust (2007-2010)
Acquired for nothing more than a minor-league contract, Jack Cust is, so far, Oakland's crown jewel of this strategy. Jack zoomed through the minors with a 1.023 career OPS by the age of 21 in AA. That gorgeous line convinced Baseball America to rate him as the #31 overall prospect for the 2001 season. And then? He sat in AAA for seven straight years, mostly because he was a natural DH in the National League. Fast forward to 2007. When A's DH Mike Piazza went down with a strained shoulder, Jack Cust came into the picture. He hit six home runs in his first seven games, and by the time his tenure with the A's had finished, he had put together a beautiful wRC+ of 128 over four years. That's better than any full season in Oakland since Frank Thomas in 2006. All in all, he compiled 7.6 WAR in an Oakland uniform. Not bad for a minor-league pickup.
Jake Fox (2010)
Let me quote Dave Cameron.
For the sake of Pacific Coast League pitchers, can the Cubs call up Jake Fox already? The 26-year-old first baseman is hitting .429/.513/.968 through 150 plate appearances for Iowa, which is ridiculous performance for any length of time against any competition. He has a .600 wOBA. Six hundred.
Oakland was able to free Jake Fox from Chicago for the price of taking on Aaron Miles' contract, along with a few fairly inconsequential minor league prospects. Jake Fox was a popular blogger favorite (that Cameron article is actually titled "Free Jake Fox") due to his amazing PCL line. That said, he ended up being an illustration of why these types of players haven't been valued very highly, since he batted .216/.264/.327 in an Oakland uniform.
Scott Sizemore (2011-Present)
The jury is still out on Sizemore, but to his credit, he has a 108 wRC+ with Oakland so far. When the A's acquired him from Detroit, he was in his third year at AAA, having compiled an .881 OPS at 2B. While those certainly aren't world-beating numbers, it's quite good, and he's been able to translate that into solid production at 3B in Oakland.
Brandon Allen (2011-Present)
Yet another guy with a Fangraphs article to his name (Free Brandon Allen!), Brandon Allen was acquired two weeks ago for Brad Ziegler. I could give a summary of his accomplishments in the minors, but why do that when I can just link to this?
Guillermo Moscoso faces Brian Matusz tonight at 7:05 PM.
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My Opinions
Cust: Up and down. In 2010, when he stopped striking out, he seemed to lose much of his power. Still, was useful during his time here.
Fox: Another guy who can be great in the minors, but struggles at the MLB level.
Sizemore: He’s definitely slowed down. Can be good, but the dash of constantly lifting the A’s with homers and big hits are over. A good pickup.
Allen: Brandon Allen. ’Nuff said.
This isn't showing up on the FP, dan. I only saw it through the twitter link.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
It's also on Facebook, but it's invisible on AN's FP itself. Weird.
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Secret thread!
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It is now.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
AN was being funky last night, too.
It would kick me to the main SBN page when I signed in (after it had signed me out), and when I tried to come back to AN, it would sign me out again.
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 16, 2011 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions
As soon as it gets large enough samples to replicate everybody's writing,
It’s gonna boot ALL the users out, and generate all the content itself.
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Dan - Great post
I think you might be onto something, because even the “non-move” Lars Anderson fits this mold. Wonder if those Yankees catchers could be another addition to this variety?
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
O HAI THAR FP POST.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
At some point it was defense, and I think that morphed into guys that could play more than one IF spot.
That would make it easier to shift guys around in case of injury, which we had an abundance of in years past. Since the rise in errors this year, and less injuries than we’re used to, I don’t think we are taking advantage of either of those attributes.
I think Eric Patterson might fall into this category, too.
He didn’t languish in AAA for seven years or anything, but he flopped in Chicago and they sort of turned on him. Cubs fans don’t really have a lot of patience. I guess he flopped in Oakland, too.
Lars Anderson, too, who was apparently targeted by Beane. Blocked at every position in Boston, stalled in AAA for a couple of years.
I wouldn't call him stalled. He's blocked now, this year, because they got Adrian Gonzalez.
He’s 23 and in AAA, he’s not exactly Matt Carson.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'll stick my neck out here
Eric Patterson sucks and will never be an impact player….there…I said it. He’s a younger Matt Carson with better tools.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Yeah but I was talking about Lars Anderson.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Lars Ulrich sucks and will never be an impact player
But seriously though, James’ down picking and cliffs multi-layered bass lines made Puppets. Lars = gabroni
All I wanted was a Pepsi
I was talking about Jan Ullrich
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I was talking about Wesson Oil.
And we ain’t baking.
by Leopold Bloom on Aug 16, 2011 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I was talking about Oil Can Henry's
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
The Marlins did this very well with Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 16, 2011 11:29 AM PDT reply actions
I wouldn't say Mike Jacobs worked "well"
considering he had a .314 OBP in 3 seasons as a first baseman.
True, he sucked for them
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
This is relevant
Has anyone ever made a list of all the players to get a “Free [Player X]” campaign? I’m pretty sure you’d get an All-Star team of suck.
Matt Murton counts too. Generally front offices are smarter than a few numbers on Fangraphs (seriously, I don’t give MLE’s even a grain of recognition). GM’s have all the numbers we have, plus a ton more and pages of detailed scouting reports.
Free ‘X’, AAAA players tend to be slow bats with little defensive value who can run into a few mistake pitches now and then, but mostly their holes can be exploited by the Justin Verlanders of the world. Slow bat with holes in his swing…. Chris Carter anyone?
by BWH on Aug 16, 2011 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Read:
I don’t think there’s a ton of value in the Jake Fox’s of the world. They’re nice low risk targets, but generally they’re “mistreated” by their organization for a reason. Every once in a while a Jack Cust or a Nelson Cruz will be able to put together a nice year or three, but these cases are exceedingly rare.
I agree with this, and add on
that this typically shows up in high K-rates in the minors (see Sizemore, Allen, Fox, and Cust). These sorts of prospects (or usually they’re not even prospects anymore) are risky bets in the majors, because they need high BB rates and/or power to sustain a decent wOBA. Batting average is just not going to be there if they’re not getting balls in play- yes, especially against tougher pitchers like Verlander.
I agree with the premise of this article- some teams write these (sometimes dubbed as AAAA) players off too early. That being said, even if you do let them play, even minor fluctuations in walks/power from year to year can have a drastic influence on their overall value as hitters.
jaggin around
by oakinboston on Aug 16, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Sizemore's K-rate
wasn’t that high. And scouts liked him too, so I wouldn’t put him in the camp I described. The others, yes.
This is a solid point, although I still love moves that cost us little and get us potential.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Free Chris Carter
from me ever having to watch him hit again.
Was at the game last night
along with the other two or three fans that decided to brave a Monday night suckfest. Allen looks good over at 1st base. Extremely small sample size of course. He made a nice scoop of one hopper at first, hit 3 singles and shows that he can go opposite field. I’m really hoping that he pans out!
All I wanted was a Pepsi
If someone wants to take a shot at him, sure.
I’m pretty sure the A’s don’t see him as more than a backup plan (Taylor/Choice/Green).
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm hoping he gets called up in September myself
…I mean, really, what harm would it do? What if, just what if , he absolutely rakes?! Stranger things have happened.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
He is the most intriguing player at AAA.
Just fascinating, swings for the fences on every swing. Great fielder too. Super high slugging, super high K’s…yeah I want to watch that guy.
It could be he starts 2-20, no HRs w/12 K’s. It also could be 7-20, 3 HRs and 10K’s. Neither would surprise me.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
This is what I'm saying
he could be an unmitigated disaster, he could not. Why not find out?!
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Cause he will be an unmitigated disaster.
Not could be. Will be. And there’s a much better outfielder at AAA who could be a very important part of the A’s future who deserves a shot more than Miller.
easy....put Miller in CF, Taylor in RF or LF.
we’re talking 20-30 games at most.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
And take AB's away from
DeJesus, Crisp, and Willingham, all of whom are barely holding on to their draft pick worth? If DeJesus or Crisp get moved in the next week, bring up Taylor. If they both get moved, then you can bring up Miller. But you shouldn’t go out of your way to make room for a guy who will make Mark Reynolds look like Tony Gwynn.
Agreed....but what if he looks good for 20-30 games and we can get some value for him?
All I wanted was a Pepsi
And
at least one of Dejesus, Crisp and Willingham will not be on the roster next year. Maybe all 3 of them. Who cares if ur stealing at bats from them.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Cause they could lose their draft pick status.
And yes, what if what if what if. But Miller being good against guys like Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez is about as likely as Cliff Pennington putting in a full season of Troy Tulowitzki numbers. It just won’t happen. And we won’t get value for him. Nobody’s gonna give up value for a guy who struck out in 37% of his AAA PA’s simply because he had a good September (when numbers tend to get inflated).
Good point
Weaver and Hernandez are bad examples though….our entire roster looks childish against those two. Felix absolutlely owns the A’s. In fact, if he’s pitching the home opener next year, I’m not going.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
It was pretty cool when willingham hit the HR against Felix in the opener
Gave me some false hope. The 5 errors though, that turned out to be a preview of how the season would go…
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I was excited to see that HR too
and then Kouz happened. I always go to the home opener…it’s getting really old. Hindsight is always 20/15 but did we really think we could win with corner infielders of Kouz and Barton? Laughable!!
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Why not?
Going into this year, Barton looked as if he had finally turned the corner, and it was logical to expect him to continue his 2009. As for Kouz, he was coming off his worst year( one in which he had changed leagues), and though he would regress, no one expected him to fall of the face of the earth. If both had performed to their career averages, they would be fine.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
It's easy to forget that A's corner infield in 2010 was very, very good
These are the best 1B/3B combos in AL in 2010 (in fWAR)
Red Sox_____11.2
Rays______ 8.5
Tigers_____8.4
A’s__________8.1
Twins_______7.7
Yankees_____7.1
Given, lots of A’s value was in the more volatile part of fielding, but even so, corner infield didn’t look that bad going into the season.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUZ!
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Saw a blog a while back...
talking about how the Brewers seem to be doing well going after players who hit a lot of HR and strike out a lot, seeing them as the new undervalued type of players.
The Brewers are actually
good because of Fielder, Weeks, and Braun plus 4 good starters. But I’m sure the blog author somehow found a way to make the point he set out to make.
you mean
the 3 players that generally K over 100 times a season? Totaled over 400 combined last season.
Well, yeah
but I wouldn’t say that they are undervalued. I think everyone knows those guys are all studs who went the 2nd, 5th, and 7th overall picks in their respective drafts. Not like they went out and assembled a 2000 A’s style team of journeymen high K high HR guys on the cheap.
I mean...at the very least, we shouldn't give a rip about Dejesus
Willingham, we may have a shot at resigning. Hideki….man, the 2nd have is hard to ignore. If we don’t sign Hideki, he bat 400 next year. But Dejesus…..Sweeney can slide right in there and we won’t miss a beat. We won’t win much, but won’t miss a beat.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Sure, I guess my point is....we're constantly focused on only 3 years from now
What about next year? Not saying that Miller is the answer, he likley isn’t. But he has nothing to prove at AAA. He needs to play at the big league level and fail or succeed against MLB pitching.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
you are sooo WRONG. calculate again
146/338 = 43.2%. for PA 146/384 = 38%. just kidding those are even worse than you stated. i like his 338AB/29HR = 1Hr every 11.66 ABs. thats awesome when you look at what we have had since 2006 lapsed. i’ll take the Ks for the rest of the year. i want to see him mash… or at least try to
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
He has 392 PA's, not 384
You forgot to include his 6 HBPs and 2 sac flies. So it’s 146/392, which is 37.24%, to be exact.
Miller isn't on the 40-man roster
So who do you get rid of to give him (a longshot) a shot at MLB playing time?
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I don't like Rosales at all but I don't give up a valuable utility guy
To get a guy who strikes out about as often as I would if I played pro ball.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I see it that we have plenty of utility type player, so that we don't need one that can't hit.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
you sort of have to keep one of Rosales and Jackson
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Or a Sogard-type, who is cheaper.
I would keep Eric, before Rosales.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
but Sogard can't play the outfield
That’s why Jackson is a little more valuable – plays corner IF and OF.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Jackson has next to no value at this point.
He needs to go. I defended him all winter, I’m done now. He is adequate as a fielder anywhere, but frankly Rosales or Jackson I choose Rosie over him too.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I could go either way
Albeit a really small sample, he had some horrible atbats up here.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Can't play?, or hasn't played?
Sizemore didn’t play 3rd until he was asked to. Rosales needs to find himself before I’m willing to play him more.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
DFA rosales...
no one will proably pick him up so it is safe
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Im never one to defend Rosales but here goes...
Last year he was a 1.6 WAR guy in 80 games. He can play any outfield position save for center and any infield position. He to me is way more useful than Sogard who is an equally light-hitter and far less versatile.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Is that absolutely true? If a losing team signs a type B FA do the A's get the pick?
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I believe so.
More accurately, you call him up, he sucks, and you don’t gain an extra 2nd round pick.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't realize you automatically get a sandwich pick regardless.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
So, agreed that his upside potential is limited at best
You wouldn’t even call him up in September? I mean, we keep calling up Carter and we know he can’t hit MLB pitching. Carter has stellar numbers in AAA.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Matsui DDJ and Crisp
are all type B FA’s, and Willingham is a Type A. And they’re all holding on to their status by a thread, except Matsui who looks like a solid B. If all are offered arb (which is likely except in the case of Matsui) and all walk (please bring Willingham back) we’d likely have six picks in the top 60 or so next year. That is important.
Best case scenario: Crisp gets dealt this week for something like Joey Devine and Taylor plays RF and DDJ moves to CF. Re-sign Willingham and collect DDJ and Matsui’s sandwich picks.
Crisp
should make B if he doesn’t get hurt. Elias Rankings are based on last two years and as Crisp didn’t play at all this time in 2009, he should increase his score towards the end of the year
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
DDJ, on the other hand
had a .341/.392/.512/.904 line with 5 HR and 17 RBI between 08/15 and the end of the season in 2009. He will have it much harder to remain above the cut.
(the stats in bold are the ones relevant for Elias Ranking)
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Why would we offer arbitration to Matsui and DDJ?
We would be screwed if they accept since both could be re-signed for less.
I think Matsui would accept
Why wouldn’t he as a 38 y/o who clearly has an affinity for Bob Melvin?
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I guess I am makign the assumption
That Matsui likes Melvin because he has given him more playing time, he has really succeeded under him, Melvin has been a huge Matsui booster, etc. I just don’t see anywhere else he can go, and get the very vocal and public support he gets here from Melvin. He isn’t that great anymore.
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We know the opposite is true
from Melvin’s quote how he wants Hideki back.
Also I think Matsui likes playing the field and Melvin is the only recent manager that has given him significant time there.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
when did Melvin become the A's manager in 2012?
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
Chances of him coming back for 2012 were greatly enhanced
by the signing of Phil Garner as special advisor.
by LoneStranger on Aug 16, 2011 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
The same time that
compensation picks were renewed in the 2012 CBA.
In both cases there are now signs showing that it is likely to happen, but it is by no means confirmed.
Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree
I implied that Matsui arbitration
was unlikely. DeJesus for 1 year, $6-7M would be fine with me, actually. His K-rate this year is only slightly higher than his career average, and his BABIP is .264
I’m willing to say he’ll be worth 6-7 M next year, and that 2011 has been mostly bad luck.
I'm worried that the "bad luck" phase will segue right into the "precipitous decline" phase
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
He'll only be 32 next year
and his GB and LD % are right around his career norms. And it’s not like we’re talking a 4 year deal here, it’s one year of arbitration.
I don't agree with the term "only" in regards to DeJesus' age.
DeJesus had his best year at age 28, declined a little at 29, got hurt at 30, and is not playing all that well offensively at 31. He might bounce back next year with better luck or in a better offensive park, but it’s no sure thing.
Maybe it’s a question of context. If one is looking at the 2012 A’s as a fringe contender, and the 2013 A’s as a real contender with the return of Anderson and possibly Braden, one signs Willingham and DeJesus and hopes DeJesus’ BABIP is around .3xx and that Willingham stays healthy enough to play 140 games and doesn’t decline much.
If one looks at the 2012 A’s as stillborn and the 2013 A’s as a fringe contender at best, then one has to consider taking the draft picks for Willingham and DeJesus and using the 2012 OF as sort of a tryout camp for a Rule 5’er, and Michael Taylor, and maybe a rehabilitation project with upside, and maybe even see if Jai Miller can be the next Dave Kingman or Rob Deer.
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
then again, if DeJesus accepts arb, we'd be stuck with him next year either way.
As Joe Schultz would say, “Aw sh!tfu@k”
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
...usually followed by....
“Fu@ksh”
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
I don't think he'll accept arb
and it’s worth the less than catastrophic risk if he does accept. Maybe he’ll have a good 80 games in 2012 and be good trade bait.
Also, Jai Miller is no Dave Kingman. The gap between Jai Miller’s 2011 AAA K-rate and Dave Kingman’s career K-rate is the same as the gap between Kingman’s rate and Rod Carew’s. Yep, Jai Miller would make Dave Kingman look like Rod Carew.
Yeah. I've seen him a little bit this year. I know he'll get fooled more in the majors.
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
miller can field and run bases
better than kingman. a little bit of value there. still worth a shot
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
last i saw
matsui is almost type b with several players ahead of him (barely)
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
We won't miss a draft pick on DeJesus
Because we won’t offer him arbitration. If we do, he probably accepts and then we pay him $7.5M to be here in 2012.
There is no issue with sending DeJesus to the bench unless the plan is to bring him back.
I don't think DeJesus accepts
He is better off taking a one-year deal in a park to inflate his numbers like Houston. Be the lone All-Star rep, build value sign big deal.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Even if he does accept
the 7.5 million (assuming that’s accurate) may be worth the risk. Crisp is going to be just as much of a risk injury-wise and may be looking for a multi-year deal. DeJesus has been solid defensively and could come back from his offensive woes. And he doesn’t have the injury risk.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm totally fine with DDJ accepting
I just think he is less likely to. I’d like to re-sign DeJesus long-term. To me it is a no-brainer to offer him arb.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I think DDJ would be a fine addition for next year
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
Exactly.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
solid???
he has four errors including a dropped routine fly ball
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
meh
errors are bad and all, but not the best measure of fielders.
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
He was also looking directly into the sun.
It was not as easy of a catch as it looked.
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Range
His range is very good, which, let’s face it, is the most important thing for an outfielder.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 17, 2011 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it is worth a lot more to see what we have in our kids for next year than to worry about gaining a potential 2nd round pick if a winning team signs DDJ
We have no idea what our offseason plan is if we have no idea how Taylor and Miller perform against ML pitching. We need to fill 1B, 3B, 3OF spots, and DH. We have to see if the kids can play.
Crisp and DDJ are at best type B. If a losing team signs them their pick is protected, right? And then we are left with no pick anyways.
The ironic thing is that Willingham, the one who would actually net us a guranteed decent pick, is the one we probably will re-sign.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
we have no idea how Taylor and Miller perform against ML pitching
Oh I have a pretty good idea how Jai Miller will look against ML pitching. Not Taylor, though. I really want to see Taylor. Miller is not a “kid we need to see play.” We know all we need to know about him.
And we would get a draft pick even if a losing team signs a type B FA.
it would be a sandwich pick.
Likely in the low 40s overall. Much more valuable than 3 weeks of Miller striking out.
This is more an opinion on Miller, which makes sense.
I do think that we have valuable prospects though that we need to see play at the ML level right now in order to craft our offseason plan. Allen is part of this strategy, luckily CoJack sitting doesn’t affect our picks. There is some continuum where the need to find out what we have is counterbalanced by the need to get draft picks; I think we can’t afford to keep Taylor at AAA any longer, and I think that Miller at least deserves a shot.
If we didn’t play DDJ the rest of the season, wouldn’t he qualify as a type B? His seasons before this were much better, I would think he is solidly entrenched at type B.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree on CoJack
let Allen play. CoJack isn’t worth any picks.
DDJ is still on the cusp, according to this.
Crisp is even closer to the cusp, and is likely more appealing to a team in the race (hello, STL). Clear out Crisp and bring in Taylor.
I think your idea of trading Crisp for a solid bullpen arm is a good one
We are not going to re-sign him, he may not make type B, and our bullpen is terrible so we could use a good arm for next season.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
That would be ideal.
No guarantees, but if they can get a reliever for him while clearing out room for Michael Taylor, it’s a no-brainer.
We will try to re-sign him
He should be a type B. We will offer him arbitration. That is why you keep him around. You either get him back or you get a sandwich pick.
DDJ and Matsui can be traded because they aren’t likely to be offered arbitration.
good point.
I guess the real gamble is whether they will make type B or not. It’s unclear at this point.
Also your point about DDJ above is a good one. Our arb offer conceivably could be the best offer he gets on the market; there is a danger he might accept and then we are in deep shit.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
6-7M
for a career .339 wOBA whose numbers are skewed by his .264 BABIP this year is not “deep shit”.
See above, Crisp is more likely than DDJ to be a Type B
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Compensatory pick vs supplemental pick.
Crisp and DDJ are at best type B. If a losing team signs them their pick is protected, right? And then we are left with no pick anyways.
There seems to be some confusion here.
For losing a Type A free agent a team gets a compensatory pick and a supplemental pick. For losing a Type B free agent a team gets just the supplemental pick.
The compensatory pick is taken from the team that signed the free agent. That is, the same slot that would have gone to the signing team goes to the team that lost the player. If the signing team is one of the 15 worst (ie, has one of the top 15 picks), then the compensatory pick given away is the 2nd-round pick; if the signing team is one of the 15 best (ie, not one of the top 15 picks), then compensatory pick given away is the 1st-round pick.
Supplemental picks are not taken from the signing team. They’re just all inserted into the draft as extra picks between the first and second round. These are also called “sandwich pick”.
Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree
not quite so simple
the losing team MUST offer salary arbitration to get a compensatory pick for type A othrewise only a supp pick and offer arb to get supplemental pick for type B otherwise NO supp pick
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought if the team did not offer arbitration
then they get no pick at all.
Are you saying that with a Type A you still get the supplemental pick even if you don’t offer arbitration? I did not know that.
Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree
Important thing to explain is also
what happens when same team signs two Type-A free agents….
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Jai Miller is on pace
for 257 K’s per 162 games… against AAA pitching. He’d clear 300 K’s over a full season of facing MLB pitching. You’d have to seriously rake in your non-K PA’s to makeup for that. That would absolutely shatter the current record.
Actually, I kinda want to see that now.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Aug 16, 2011 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
drinking game.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
by mikev on Aug 16, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
there's a difference between a drinking game
and just looking for a reason to get alcohol poisoning.
Alcohol poisoning is a lineup with Carter, Miller, and Allen
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
If Carter ever becomes a regular
in the A’s lineup, I imagine drinking will come naturally for A’s fans/
It doesn't already?
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
This
Plus, if we’re taking away at bats from Matsui/Willingham/DeJesus/Crisp (currently all Type A or Type B free agents, although at this point only Crisp is at the cusp), I’d rather it be from Taylor.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Kyle Blanks?
I remember reading something similar to a “Free Kyle Blanks” thread on Fangraphs. Tons of power, decent plate discipline, and blocked at 1st by Rizzo. He may not qualify as a non-prospect yet (still only 24) but he’s still interesting nonetheless.
by TD_21 on Aug 16, 2011 11:46 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
you’re reading the headline too literally…
by AV on Aug 16, 2011 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He will probably move to the OF and stay in SD
I wouldn’t mind getting him but I don’t think he has been made available.
How down and out do you feel if you're Barton right now?
If Allen can hit big league pitching, Barton is the new Bobby Crosby.
All I wanted was a Pepsi
Barton is done... PERIOD!
I don’t know why you guys still thnk he has relevance in the A’s future. Allen, Carter, and Spina are the future potentials at 1st. We’re done waiting for Barton to come around
by Screamer on Aug 16, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
is he “done?” i thought he was “mending.” (someone please set me straight. i can never keep up with what we have decided is true or not…)
Bobby Crosby won RoY and signed an multi-year contract
He had four solid years of undisputed suck in Oakland. Barton had two good seasons sandwiched by two poor ones. I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.
there is little love by many around here for barton
if his decline this year was strongly affected by his injuries and he gets healthy, then there is no reason to believe he couldn’t have more great seasons in front of him. Probably not for the A’s though…
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
If he can drive the ball again he is a great player to have
BUt you are right, he may no longer be an A
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
don't you think that he was probably overachieving in 2010, though?
I think of 2009 as more of what one could have expected without an injury.
his defense maybe, but not his offense
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
if you assume that he is better than his 2009 and worse than his 2010 and
regress his defense a bit, you are looking at a 2.5-3.5 WAR player who is under team control for three more years and will not command a huge raise from league minimum he was earning this year
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Allen has way more upside than Barton right now
And no reason for Allen not to get ABs in favor of Daric
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
As cheap as he is, we can keep him in reserve at Sac, the same way we are Kouz.
Injuries happen, and if Barton can get his act together, he has value.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Let's be real, here:
Barton has one 5 WAR season under his belt. What are the odds Allen ever has one of those? Small. Very small.
Considering Daric's super fielding year last year, isn't it about equally (un)likely that Barton repeats that performance himself?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair, but that was also out of the blue
Who would have predicted that in 2009?
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
3.9 if you want to use the decimals
which you shouldn’t
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
The Golden Gate was built using slide rules.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
It would last longer if it was built today
But the point is that when you add all the potential error together, it adds up to something that makes decimals insignificant.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I just meant that perfection isn't always necessary to get the job done.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
That's sort of the decimal argument, ironically, but for different reasons
There’s no point in comparing 3.6 to 3.9 when they’re probably pretty similar.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Aug 16, 2011 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
depends on the integrity of the contractors and contractees.
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
The life expectancy would increase due to materials improvement, more than it would precision.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
And yet I see plenty of 57 chevy's still knocking around...
yet no 83 Tercels.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
I would say that you need to compare a '57 Chevy built in '57....
and one built today. You are trying compare the Golden Gate with a new driveway culvert.
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."- iglew
And I would venture to guess....
that the one built in 57 will still be around in another 50 years while the one built today…..not so much.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
A better example would be a Chevy V8 from the sixties, needed to be rebuilt every 100,000 miles, or so.
Today’s Chevy V8 will last almost double that. The metallurgy has improved geometrically.
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."- iglew
Have to agree here.
The engineering of today is far superior. Spark plugs go over a 100K, fuel injection instead of carbs….etc etc.
But overall endurance of the materials used to fabricate the vehicle? Hands down, the old style runs circles around anything being put out today.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Part of the problem with the comparison is that
a car built today isn’t built to last 50 years. We’re more used to using and then discarding these days.
Building a bridge, however, is a different mindset than building a lot of one type of product to sell. Bridges cost so much a municipality is more likely to want to make sure that it will last quite some time before needing replacement. Unless, of course, China is supplying the material.
by LoneStranger on Aug 17, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
back in ‘88, i used to think the montecarlo SS would be the 57 chevy of the future (so… of today). but you guys aren’t even mentioning it!
by AV on Aug 16, 2011 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I haven't seen one....
since 1998.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
you aren't looking in central america
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
and whether or not
the material was from china
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
OUCH!
the curse of the new Bay Bridge comes to light!
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."- iglew
to...
as in, “…to the forefront.”
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."
Just about, yeah.
In 2009 he was 5.1 WAR with a +12 UZR — or 1.2 Wins worth.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
You are sooooooooooo late to the party, dude
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
I had to translate the math to Croatian and back again.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Another thing to keep in mind
WAR is a counting stat, wRC+ is prorated.
For example, Kendrys Morales had similar wRC+ in 2010 (123), yet he amassed only 1 WAR. Barton was not only good in 2010, but healthy and endurable enough to play more than any other AL 1B other than Teixeira.
2011 Oakland Athletics: We have Cy Young pitchers and make yours look like it, too
Are you talking about the guy on the back of the BART tickets?
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
i was talking about lars ulrich.
(whoa. vooja-day…)
by AV on Aug 16, 2011 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Why?
Last year, Barton had the most productive season since Chavez in ‘04. Why wouldn’t we give him every opportunity to repeat that?
The Moneyball Part
I don’t think taking chances on free-swinging ex-prospects is much of a Moneyball tendency, unless you’re talking about the fact that all clubs do it, hoping against hope that the strikeouts start to fall and the player actually can make it late in the major leagues. This goes way back - the A’s had great success nearly two decades ago with Matt Stairs.
But if you’re talking Moneyball here, you’re not talking about ex-prospects like Cust or even Jai Miller. You’re talking about players who are still prospects, just slightly older - which means Sizemore and Allen specifically. Lars Anderson as well if the A’s had gotten him. If the A’s were going to look at ex-prospects, then both Miller and Recker would be in the majors right now. But Beane has been doing this all along, actually, though usually with pitchers - guys who are just transitioning to the majors but haven’t fully made the jump, or guys almost ready to transition. Look at Dan Haren, for example. Or Guillermo Moscoso.
But I don’t really think it’s Moneyball at all because it’s not something that Beane exploits more than others. Every team in the majors is looking for cheap talent, and the best place to find it is in AAA.
what does dan haren have to do with transition???
he was 23 when he came to the a’s, two years after attending pepperdine
by heartstopper on Aug 16, 2011 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions
let me guess, he plays centerfield!
no, of course not, this doesn’t ever happen to centerfielders. The first “free _” player I remember there being a big stink about was Roberto Petagine, so I call these guys Petagines . Ah, memories of old stat sites…..
Jai Miller has been plenty freed
Plucked off waivers twice, and granted free agency once. Nobody needs a guy striking out 434 times a year.
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
I have a morbid curiosity. I want to see a 250K season
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
I'd love to see a 250K season
In someone else’s uniform
Visit my blog the Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan!!
Esp a MariRangEls uniform.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure dan wrote this post just so he could talk about Jake Fox again.
by whiteshoes40 on Aug 16, 2011 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Last I heard, dan hates FOX.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Can we list these like stats?
We can say, “jFOX”, and “FOX”, where FOX is FOX, and jFOX is weighted per Jake Fox.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
Monkeyball wants to sign this guy:
Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree
But not for any money.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
DURRRR THEY’RE TOO OLD, BABIP IS TOO HIGH, TOO MANY Ks, DURRRRRR
Great post Dan
Seems though that we take other systems guys who fall into this category and neglect our own sometimes
A Kouzmanoff for the rest of us!
I think he's retired.
After the last MLB team let him go, he was playing in Monterrey in the Mexican League for a while, but I checked their roster today and he’s not on it now.
Being wrong about something you’ve worked on is a blessing, not a curse, and people are so invested in being right that that gets lost. —Graham MacAree
Jury still out?
How is the jury still out on Sizemore? He’s a .230 with no power, no speed, and a crappy fielder.
He's not a crappy fielder, just a crappy third baseman.
He’d be fine at second.
"The Mrs. and I are moving to San Jose"- dwishinsky
"Oh, so Bud Selig gave you territorial rights? How long did you have to wait for that?"- LoneStranger
by Gaijin_Suketto on Aug 16, 2011 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Mostly due to him still learning a new position I would assume
coupled with the black hole of internal options at 3rd and a lackluster FA class there.
KOOOOOOOOUUUUUZ!
Bring him back. We don’t need 16 “kinda” 2nd basemen.
i've never tried to rank them to be honest. i guess i like beer.- stm72
And, as Dan said, he's put up solid, although not spectacular offensive numbers.
He also has been pretty neutral baserunning per Fangraphs. Sure, the guy isn’t blazing, but at least he isn’t making any baserunning gaffes.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Aug 16, 2011 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
yes because speed is what I look for in a 3B.
by Billy Frijoles on Aug 16, 2011 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder if Brooks Robinson has a grandson...
and is he up for a draft soon.
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."- iglew
Have you accounted for grittiness?
"Trying not to rec a "Fuck the Giants" post is like trying not to look at boobs."- iglew
he has been league average this year with league average defense.
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
Great post, but I'd argue the "New Moneyball" are young players who quarrel with upper management.
Rasmus, Escobar, soon Morrison, etc. Beane no longer has anything to do with Moneyball. He spends the money he is given terribly.
Well that's because he has no money
and nobody really wants the money he has. And other teams with more money spend money very intelligently. The difference between the 2002 Beane who we love and was chronicled in Moneyball is that teams who actually have money know want the same thing the A’s want, and they’re able to price the A’s out of the bidding.
The A’s are as smart as the Red Sox, they just have 30% of the money. It’s a big deal now. Also, there really are no low revenue teams anymore except OAK and TB. Back in 2000 or so, there were a lot of have-nots. Now it’s pretty much us and the Rays.
And the rays spent a lot of time sucking that
increasedtheir pool of talent in the minors, and allowed them to collect picks when the older ones left.
We yet enjoy little to be envied, but endure much to be pitied.-Thomas Dudley
and even then
their window isn’t particularly large and after this year they’ll only make the playoffs twice in four seasons of that window. Whereas the Yankees have missed the playoffs once since 1995. Money matters now more than ever.
Beane has historically never signed the "right" players though.
Dye, Loaiza etc. Also you cant really say he has no money then say no one wants the money he has, its either one or the other, just keeping you honest dude.
I agree about the second part though, MLB needs to not be in Florida, and we need to be in San Jose.
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