Blogfather "Day To Day," And Other Bits Of Tid
by Nico on Jul 7, 2011 9:35 AM PDT
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PrintI apologize for not offering a longer, more substantial post today, but my wrists and arms, battered and bruised from typing "NEEDS MOAR RUNZ!!!!!!!!" over and over, are asking for some rest. However, here are a few conversation starters to tide us over until the A's play tonight -- and yes, the A's play tonight -- at 5:05pm...
* As the trading deadline approaches, the A's need to be thinking about how they plan to produce an OF in 2012. Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, and David DeJesus are all potential free agents after 2011. Along with keeping any of them with the idea of trying to extend them beyond 2011, or trading them in July, remember that the A's could also offer arbitration and let the player accept.
I'm thinking of Willingham in particular, whom I wouldn't be as comfortable committing to long-term as I would be keeping for one more season. Aside from "he who will not be named because he didn't smile enough," Willingham is the most legitimate slugger the A's have had since Frank Thomas in 2006.
Question: How do you want to see the A's handle their 3 main OFers?
* After the All-Star break, the A's will likely have 7 starting pitchers who can lay claim to a spot in the rotation: Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Rich Harden, Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, and Tyson Ross. Who should land where? Personally, I see 2011 now as a year strictly to build for the future so I'm pretty disinterested in Harden. I'd like to see Moscoso stay in the rotation partly to reward him for his excellent performance so far and partly to learn more what he really can or cannot do over time. I'm not a huge believer in Outman, who I suspect is best as a luxury fill-in, not as a core member of your rotation. His innings also need to monitored coming off injury.
So while it's arguably not the best move for right now, I'd be ok with coming out of the break starting Gonzalez, Cahill, McCarthy, Ross, and Moscoso, putting Harden in long relief and Outman at AAA, with the latter two ready to step into the rotation anytime. What do you favor, and why?
* Chris Carter has looked increasingly tentative at the plate, and while I don't ever want him to lose his patience and plate discipline, I wish someone would take him aside and emphasize that he needs to stop trying to survive at bats and start looking for a pitch to punish the crap out of. He's here to hit the ball hard and far, and his walks should come as a result of pitchers' fear. He's a mild mannered guy who needs to swing like hittable pitches are his personal b...OK I'm not going to write that on the front page, but you get my drift.
Carter has looked surprisingly comfortable and competent at 1B. I'd like to see him play 1B every day, be encouraged to be a little mean at the plate, and see what he can do. What do you want to see from Carter?
Weeks, Sizemore, and Carter...There could be the core of something good here...Could be. See you at 5:05pm for "the game that never was"...
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Nico's day to day?
Aw crap, do we have any bloggers in AAA we can call up?
There's no crying in baseball!
We're pretty short on depth here on AN...
poor drafting.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
actually it's just the front office making bad moves
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
the AN front office.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
We have a front office?
BOO! They want us to move to a new domain!
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
All the 3+ WAR bloggers leave when they realize they won't get paid
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
I'm still here and I'm a super star.
But then, I like the white shoes.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Day-to-day?
RIP Nico
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:08 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
oh, the dreaded "day to day"
I agree on Weeks, Sizemore, Carter. For Carter: keep him at 1B. As we know I don’t like seeing young players relegated to DH only status, and he seems reasonably competent in the only defensive position where he’s actually had a fair amount of experience. He needs to play alot and get lots of at bats.
for the rotation: my short term rotation would have Harden instead of Ross. But I emphasize that my “short term” is very short.
I imagine Willingham wants a multiyear contract. The only way he’d likely accept arby would be if he was convinced that he needed another year to establish his value and get a long term contract after 2012.
If Willingham accepted arby from us,
what does his salary look like for 2012? Does he get a raise from his 6 million 2011? (currently as it stands now)
Every man for himself...
Greetings from SABR41
There appears to be one other A’s fan here
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:05 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Awesome! Is Danny there?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess they're showing the DS9 episode
that inspired my sigline at today’s film festival. Have a wonderful time! Damn, wish I was there.
Sisko: All right Niners, let's hear some chatter!
Kasidy: Hey batterbatterbatterbatterbatter!
Leeta: Hey batterbatterbatter! Batterbatterbatterbatter!
Worf: DEATH TO THE OPPOSITION!!!
by CmdrKhraanik on Jul 7, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, it was right during Boras' keynote
Not sure if you heard but starting 10/1 all DS9 episodes will be on Netflix Instant. So, we will have to wait until then.
"Once you go Bed....everything else is dead." - Bed
"So you're saying we should skin the Rangers and wear them as uniforms? I’m down." - Kyli
by cuppingmaster on Jul 7, 2011 12:08 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Assuming we end up trading a young pitcher for some bats, (either Cahill, or BA)
we’ll actually need to sign some of these veterans to 1yr incentive laden deals so I’m all for Mccarthy or Harden pitching as long as it could benefit us for the short term. (2nd half 2011 and all 2012)
I would let DeJesus and Crisp go… Sign Willingham and go forward with Taylor, Sweeney and someone else via trade or FA.
Every man for himself...
keep DDJ
I’d rather sign DeJesus to a 2-3 yr deal. He is a solid all-around player, and his struggles in the first 1/2 should bring the cost down. With our payroll we need bargains, and we have at least 2 spots to fill in the OF.
Sign him for 4th OF money and hope he ends up being a starting COF.
Upside is that he plays 2+ WAR RF. Downside is… this year all over again.
A younger version of Coco Crisp?
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
Unless you're talking about trading for Bourn at this trade deadline, it's not possible.
You’re going to have to deal with WIllingham/DeJesus before Bourn comes up. Players aren’t just on the shelf at a grocery store. Sometimes other GMs say no. Most of the time, even.
Agree with you totally on Carter
He looks so defensive at the plate. Someone needs to get him to relax, not worry about every at bat and look to drive the ball.
Bring back Hammer.
why is that not happening 45 times a day? from bob melving to the hitting coach to billy beane and david forst to the parking lot attendant to the ball boys to the bullpen coach?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
It must be right?
Someone has to be.
Bring back Hammer.
by OaktownPower on Jul 7, 2011 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
the day after he struck out against league, melvin said that he hadn't spoken to carter about the at bat. sweet jeebus. he should have 3 points to talk to carter and weeks about everyday.
whether it’s reviewing the prior day’s game or a mental note or a base running note or whatever. the guys are at the ball park for 5 or 6 hours a day. don’t tell me that you can’t find 5 minutes to spend with 2 important players for the future.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
i’m increasingly curious about this stuff. in a baseball organization, who is responsible for teaching the young guys? the weeks oversliding thing. this carter comfort thing. all sorts of other things… it seems like everybody can see it, and everybody says “somebody” outta be doing something about it, but WHO? am i picking up the wrong impression here, that there’s a whole lot of overpaid clipboard holding, and a bit of shoulder-shruggin’ “i don’t feel i have authority enough to interfere so i’ll let another coach do this?”
any insights?
by AV on Jul 7, 2011 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
it's melvin's job to ensure that someone is doing it or he's doing it himself. it's inexcusable. the vets don't need as much attention as the young guys. it can't be complicated for a guy viewed as a player's manager.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
have you seen this first hand? not melvin of course. in any baseball organization. i guess i’m looking for “this is how it happens” more than “this is how it should.”
do any of our variously first-hand-experienced people know?
by AV on Jul 7, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
i'm not saying its happening or not happening. i'm emphasizing that it should be happening. the only direct comment i have is the statement by melvin about not having spoken to carter about the strike out against league.
seems like you’d want to talk to carter first thing the next day or before he went home.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I think our first-hand-experienced people
have their experience in college or minor leagues, where things may be very different from MLB.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
if it is different (and very, you say), isn’t that even more befuddling?
by AV on Jul 7, 2011 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes indeed.
I very much share your curiosity on this point. I just don’t think we’re going to get our answer from someone who remembers how it was when he played ball. In fact, I think that sort of thing is exactly what is making us misperceive how a typical MLB manager works. We expect him to be like our high school coach.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
If I had 45 people a day telling me to relax, including the parking lot attendant, I probably wouldn'tt feel relaxed.
Probably more paranoid.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
that's how it looks to me, but it's really hard to tell without having seen him bat in the minors
Maybe that’s just the way he looks?
I have a fear that the A's are going to give up on Carter without giving him a long look.
The guy is notorious for starting off slow. I would give him the rest of this year and all of next year to see what we have with him. Players with his power potential are too far and few between (especially for us) to not give him a fair shake.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
He really should just be DHing.
Leave him there for the rest of the year and see what happens, I bet its good.
Yeah, I'm completely for him being our permanent DH.
I don’t get the hesitancy a lot of people have about this.
The argument that some don’t want to relegate a young player to DH seems weak IMO if that young player is a huge liability defensively. He’s not going to increase his value by playing terrible defense.
Carter’s minor league track record has proven he can hit the hell out of the ball. Let’s set him loose and see what he can do. I’m so sick of signing the way-past-his-prime “slugger” to be our DH.
You know you are big-time when people chant your name while you pee. - 67MARQUEZ
by bakerbeachboy on Jul 7, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
The hesitancy is based entirely on hope
If Carter were to turn into an average first baseman than he would be worth roughly one more win per season than if he were our designated hitter. Is it realistic to think that any poor defender could turn into an average one, no, not really, but it seems particularly possible when it comes to first base.
All that being said, I’m just fine with him DHing so long as he hits.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
Exactly.
Replacement level for DHs is HUGE. Carter’s going to have to be one hell of a bat to be a worthwhile DH.
I don't pay any attention to the pitching...
in that it’s the one area we are strong in as a team. How the rotation shakes out is how the rotation shakes out. Each pitcher will determine his own fate.
The offense on the other hand gives me nothing but fits. Sizemore is intriguing, and I think he should get his shot. Weaks has second locked down and Penny is a servicable SS. Carter? Yeah, put him at first and let him work it out. Crisp should and Willingham need a little support from some legit power guys. One more COF and a legit DH? This team may get very interesting to watch in a hurry. I also think Suzuki needs to feel some pressure from within the organization.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Penny really isn't a serviceable SS though.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
by mikev on Jul 7, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's a pretty thin position.....
I was under the impression he was league average. Not so?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Not this year, at least.
on fangraphs, anyway, he’s one of 3 qualified SS who are below replacement level this season. The other 2 are Miggy and Yuniesky Betancourt.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
his UZR sucks this year, too, actually.
SSS and all, etc.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
yeah, looked it up as soon as i wrote that. just didn’t remember bad plays (ichiro interfered!) so i was surprised.
by AV on Jul 7, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
he's subpar offensively, defensively and base running. some of it is small sample size, but he has a negative WAR for the year.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
He's streaky
Had only one decent streak this year. My guess is he’ll have another soon, so he should move up the charts a little bit. But I’m still not convinced he can’t improve.
fair enough. he might improve to above replacement level but he'll probably still be below the 2 WAR standard for an everyday starter
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
The average starter has 3 WAR
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
About the same
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
interesting. i thought it might be skewed by the best players. thanks.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
It is, but only a tiny bit
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
A bit more than halfway down
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
for some reason the linky didn't work, but i found it. thanks.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
For 2011 I get an Average of 1.7 and a Median of 1.6
Won’t that get to 3 by the end of the year?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe it's time for the front office to target a minor league shortstop
Since Green isn’t going to be a shortstop down the road, my guess is that the Front Office, even now, is poring through other teams’ minor league systems for someone who might replace Pennington in a couple of years. Of course, by that time, Pennington himself could improve in the field. He’s got a good arm and good range, but makes a lot of mistakes. As a hitter, he’s pretty much adequate for his position I think, and is still subject to improvement as he gets more comfortable (unlike Crosby, who had that fatal batting weakness, Pennington seems pretty much consistent as a hitter, which is a good thing).
We must be watching different guys. Pennington has been a really bad hitter this season
The only really good thing he does is foul off a lot of pitches. He seems to have a high number of 6, 7, 8 pitch at bats. The problem is that then he grounds out on the last pitch instead of wearing the pitcher down and hitting a single.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Question being...
Is this a position we need to upgrade immediately? I was thinking the offense as currently contstructed might be legit with two more offensive threats at DH and COF. Wouldn’t we be better off throwing ducketts at those two holes?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
So, the 3 spots we "upgraded" this past offseason, you mean? :D
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
LOL...
yeah, pretty much. The FO sucks at this game nowadays.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
To be fair I don't think anyone predicted Willingham's and DeJesus' production falling off a cliff like it has.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
To be fair I think predicting a player's production
is a key component of the job, so failing to do so counts as sucking at it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I agree - except the drop off for Willingham and DeJesus is remarkable.
If you’d like to point me to ANYONE that predicted it I’d be very grateful.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
except you predict based off of past production
and this season is nothing close to their previous production.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
No, you predict any way that works.
If past production works as a prediction method, great. If it doesn’t, then you find something else that does.
Look, I’m not trying to tar and feather Beane for guessing wrong, just like I’m not going to denounce a guy for hitting a line drive right at a defender for an out … but it’s still a failure.
I’m one of the ones here who still likes Beane, and I’d like to give him more chances, but this whole business of pretending an out isn’t an out is just ridiculous. If you sign a guy and he sucks, then you failed.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
That surely is the bottom line.
It all begins and ends with Beane’s decisions. And there is no two ways about it, on both these guys he whiffed.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
I agree, bringing in these guys was a failure.
But the difference is how much blame and weight you attach to the failure. I’m much quicker to criticize Beane’s signing of like Piazza than Willingham.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
No
The emphasis should be on having a good process, not good results.
If you were playing poker and at the showdown with a big pot a guy drew to an inside straight and beats you – who is the better poker player? Did you fail? He got all the money after all, but in the long run you will beat him.
Whether is was a ‘fail’ or not is a useless semantic argument anyway.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
That would be fine...
if Baseball was a “processs” oriented business. It is not. Results are the only true indicator for a GM. Or at least should be.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Depends on what you think 'Moneyball' is
For me, it’s exactly that. Favoring the process over the results.
Sizemore is the perfect example. His results at the MLB level with the Tigers were terrible. The “results oriented” Tigers let him go for almost nothing. A’s/Beane wins because our process was better then theirs.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
See, that's an example of Beane succeeding at his job.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Results Count
I have liked Billy Beane, but I think we have to look at the bottom line here:
Last year was not a sign of better things to come; it was a positive blip on a negative radar screen, much like the KC Royals year a few seasons back and possibly like the 2011 Pirates. What we’re looking at instead is the fact that every year since the decline of the 1999-2003 Oakland team, with the sole exception of 2006, when Beane lucked out on Frank Thomas and gave away the store on Milton Bradley, the A’s have been a crappy team.
What separates these crappy teams from all other crappy teams in history is that the crap is all on the offensive side. Usually teams with great pitching win games; these teams are the first I’ve ever seen in which great pitching hasn’t turned the team around.
That's the whole point.
Those are two totally different questions:
Who is the better poker player?
Did you fail?
I feel like some people are trying to make them the same, by redefining failure.
Maybe it’s a semantic question, but it’s a weird semantic question. Why are some people so determined to go jump through crazy hoops of logic just to avoid acknowledging a failure?
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Please don't let it be a few years before Pennington is gone
"I don't know a (expletive) Jew who would have the balls to say that. Let me just get this straight. You don't ever tip, huh?" -- Chris Penn, from Reservoir Dogs
Giambi just had an RBI double
of Hudson. Now Ellis is up to bat. Wierd.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Last three years?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
Small sample sizes, in two cases...
But here are the stats for ex-A’s on the Rockies:
Jason Giambi, OPS 1.035
Mark Ellis, OPS 1.321
Carlos Gonzales, OPS .860
Huston Street, 3.46 ERA, 24 saves
Clay Mortensen 3.86 ERA
we traded clay mort after we traded for moscoso? so far that's been okay.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
and Milton is unemployed so I expect the Rockies to sign him later this year!
Every man for himself...
I expect that Milton's career is DRT.
(Dead Right There)
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
My question with the OF is whom among them are Type A or Type B eligible.
If they’re Type A, keep them unless you can collect a huge ransom. For type B players and ones that wouldn’t get any compensation, trade them away for something. As much as i like coco, if he can be had for a prospect or two, pull the trigger.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Both Willingham and DDJ are type B. Crisp is neither.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Not enough HR/RBI/etc
Elias rankings are weird.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
He's also a pretty mediocre hitter (at best).
I’d keep him around if we can’t find a legitimate CFer in the off season, but I’d definitely bat him waaaay down the order.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
pretty much.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Hmm.
I’d try to trade them all. Even though i’m not sure who comes up to fill in the 3rd outfield spot of Sweeney and Jackson are our starters.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
puke
Sweeney and Jax as starters…ugh.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah i know.
But we’re not going to contend anyway…
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
As for the pitchers,
advanced stats say Moscoso should get worse, but they also said Cahill kinda was average, and he obviously isn’t, so i’m willing to give him few more starts just to see who he actually is. Harden is the odd man out in my opinion, since everyone knows who he is: a talented pitcher that will get hurt. Trade him if you can. I would agree to put Outman in AAA for the time being just to get consistent starts.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
to be clear, FIP/xFIP said cahill was average unless his k's picked up. they did.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
this.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
he's still outpitching his FIP/xFIP, but his BABIP has normalized too
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Of course it did
He had those three or four games where he sucked and his BABIP probably soared.
Of course
But it probably means that when Cahill is pitching at his best, his BABIP is probably still outrageous.
I'm not....
Cahill has always outpitched his BABIP. To be fair, he had no games last year like those suckitude games this year.
i'm not sure what outpitching his babip means. but i'm pretty sure low babip means "pitching at your best" and high babip means "not pitching at your best."
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
not necessarily.
HRs don’t count as balls in play, and giving up HR is the worst thing a pitcher can do.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I think it was poorly worded, but
I think he meant that Cahill has the ability to maintain a consistently lower BABIP than the “normal” (or expected mean, or whatever you want to call it).
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
if that's what he meant, then it's been true in only 1 of his 3 seasons so far.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
look i'm rooting for cahill, but it's like discussing moscoso.
has moscoso pitched well? his results have been good. do i expect him to continue to produce good results. no.
to a typical a’s fan (non-sabr inclined), moscoso has pitched well.
to a typical a’s fan (sabr inclined), moscoso has gotten lucky.
same results, but the way of framing it is different. that’s kinda how i feel about cahill. have his results been good? yes. has he pitched well? depends on whether you think he’s been lucky or truly good. and whether he can sustain his results.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
That's what I meant
What I’m driving at is that Cahill had an abnormally low BABIP when he’s on his game (which essentially means last year and his good games this year).
And by "sustain his results"
We’re now talking one season plus his good games this year. During his bad games, it’s like we were watching a different pitcher.
Wouldn't that pretty much apply to all pitchers?
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
which is the point i was making when you jumped in with the hr comment (which is a fair comment to bring up)
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
if you can't sustain results, then it's luck. if you can sustain results, it's skill. i guess we'll have to wait and see on balance, which he is.
so far this year, his xFIP is down vs 2010 because his k’s are up more than his walks. but his era is up because his babip is up.
which is the real cahil? i suspect the 2011 cahill because the babip looks more typical of a pitcher with his profile (but i’ll leave that to the real experts).
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I disagree with the premise
It is simply not the case that “If you can’t sustain results, then it’s luck.” If you read ANY analysis of statistics, what you find is the statement that it is either luck, or it’s a temporary increase in skill, or it’s a not-yet defined situation, or it’s an intangible that will never be defined.
I remember that first SABR article, years ago, when someone wrote that there were holes in the predictive ability of statistical analysis and those holes could only be considered “intangibles,” which “we will call ‘luck’”. The writer chose to call it “luck” because there was no reason not to: the answers weren’t going to be figured out, and in most cases it probably WAS luck.
But it isn’t always.What we’re looking at here is something that could be sustainable, i.e. the ability to pitch well every time out, i.e. consistency. The difference between “luck” and consistency is the idea that the only thing that separates a good from bad Cahill performance is where the ball is hit, not whether he has the necessary pinpoint control.
.
i disagree. simply because its random doesn’t mean it might be intangible. if it always breaks the same way versus the prediction, then it exists whether measurable or not.
if you can’t predict it or sustain it, then it’s random. and you don’t pay money for random. his babip in 2011 looks a lot like his babip in 2009. so far his 2010 babip is random by history, for him and for pitchers of his ilk. he’s either a freak or 2010 was an outlier. i’m in the outlier camp.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
"Random" isn't "Luck"
Maybe that’s semantic, but it seems to me that calling something “random” simply means it isn’t predictable.
The problem in terms of Cahill is that his BABIP was lower than it should have been in 2009 based on his actual stats (according to people here on AN), and the same thing happened in 2010. In 2011, he’s had a handful of games in which he sucked, thus bringing his BABIP in line with his actual stats. But that just means, in this particular case, a lack of consistency.
What you’re really arguing is that he’s pitching the same way in the stinko games as in the good games, and that is REALLY arguable. Cahill himself will argue it.
This whole thing is easier
if you just recognize the terminology.
In sabermetric discussions, anything which is identifiable and projectible is a “skill” and anything which is not is “luck”. That’s what they mean when they say good health is a skill or being tall is a skill. The same goes for saying maintaining a low BABIP is luck.
The confusion arises when someone not fluent with the terminology tries to read “luck” or “skill” in a more literal sense.
In a deterministic view of the universe, ultimately there is no such thing as luck — it’s only things we can’t project (yet).
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
i'm even willing to call a consistently low babip a skill even if its not predictable. but when things wildly fluctuate, it's not skill when it goes my way and bad luck when it goes against me.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
But still...
regarding Cahill (and I’m glad you mentioned that, iglew) - if in fact it’s luck (using iglew’s explanation) that Cahill’s BABIP was low in 2010 and normal in 2011 due to a regression to a mean, then it would mean that - again - the only difference between Cahill’s good starts in 2011 and his bad starts in 2011 is luck, and that doesn’t seem to be the case.
you're losing me with your last sentence. why doesn't that seem to be the case?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
that there's no difference in the quality of his pitching...
…between the good and bad starts of 2011. That the difference between those starts is simply a matter of luck.
In other words, if those bad starts didn’t exist, his BABIP would be in line with last year, but the only reason his BABIP sucked in those starts was because he’d hit a patch of bad luck (which will pretty much always happen in a regression to the mean).
not exactly, it could mean more K's, less BB's
which aren’t factored into BABIP but are not the product of luck.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
You've got cause and effect all mixed up here
Of course pitchers have better results in games where their BABIPs are lower.
The question is whether this is a skill or just random luck.
Do pitchers have better results in games where they are lucky? Of course.
All of DIPs theory (FIP) is based on the idea that pitchers have very little control over the results of balls in play. There are pitchers (Mariano Rivera) who can consistently produce BABIPs lower than ~.300, but they are rare.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
Six-Man Rotation: the voters have spoken
With over 100 votes counted, over 70% of AN members want to try a Six-Man Rotation! The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals are trying it. It’s time we do the same. It helps prevent injuries, and it makes it easier to showcase and trade the bottom half of our rotation.
If it eases the work load on Gio/Anderson/Cahill, why not?
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Does anyone expect Anderson to pitch meaningful innings the rest of the year?
I expect him to come back, pitch a few effective games, feel something in his arm, and then sit for the rest of the season.
Anderson is looking more and more like this decade's version of Rich Harden.
If he comes back healthy and finishes the season well, I would make him available this offseason and move him if a good package presents itself.
Helps prevent injuries
Is there ANY proof whatsoever that this is the case?
Less wear would be my guess.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
I haven't seen anything definitive. I would expect that injury is way more about mechanics than days of rest,
but that the pitchers with the worst mechanics probably would be better off with more rest between starts.
As I noted in Bambi’s post, the last two years, Cahill seems to have done a lot better on more rest; Gio has shown the same this year, but not last year. Overall, 5 days of rest doesn’t make any difference in terms of runs allowed than 4. So, while I think I originally voted ‘Why not give it a try?" I’m leaning more towards saying keep a 5 man rotation.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 7, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
It also means your best pitchers are pitching less...
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Which means we lose more 4 to 1 games...
than 2 to 1 games?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
LOL
yeah if we don’t score who cares?
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
This season is lost, so quite frankly that doesn't bother me.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
I'm speaking generally.
It makes no sense for the Yankees because then CC is pitching less often. Same for the Red Sox, Angels, etc.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Gonzalez, Cahill, Harden, McCarthy, Ross, Moscoso?
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
by WaddellCanseco on Jul 7, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
can we move to a 9 jemile weeks line up? or a 6 man line up without the black holes?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Pfft, you realise Sizemore is our best hitter at this point, right?
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
cuz of all the stoopid farking articles i gotta read about kate/william. cut those fokkers off and make 'em get real jobs.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
by stm72 on Jul 7, 2011 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He has a real job - he's a helicopter pilot.
Also, I’m hardly a Royalist. Tough to put all of the blame on me.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
that is a real job, but he doens't live off the salary.
i’m blaming you cuz i needed a reason to favor weeks over sizemore.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Of course he doesn't. He has the humble tax payer to live off.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
jemile 116 wRC+, scott 113 wRC+. of course i should note that scott's number include his suckitude on the tigers
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I'd rather go with an OF of Taylor, Mitchell and Miller with Sweeney 4th than to re-sign
Willingham, DeJesus, Jackson or Crisp
I vibrated with joy that join A's. -- Kim Seong-min
this
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 7, 2011 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
IN BEFORE PL78 SAYS WE’RE GETTING BELTRAN
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Is Jaimie McCourt "dating" Wilpon now?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
yeah, we're not getting him.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
@Nico: Harden needs to pitch now -- and next year -- so long as the A's are still invested/committed to making the playoffs now.
If they’re smart, they will back off the “rebuilding” rhetoric right now after abusing it the past 5 years. I understand your disinterestedness in Harden, and you may be right in that the A’s need to rebuild (again, without making it to the promise land), but Harden, if last season with Texas was a mirage due to his nagging injuries, needs to stay in the rotation for as long as he can. He will either help the team win games, or accumulate trade value. He won’t do that in long-relief. And it’s not like he’s holding back a top prospect from joining the rotation. It’s Moscoso (down the road). And Anderson will need Tommy John surgery at some point, its just a matter of time. I don’t think finding a spot in the rotation for someone who truly needs to be in there will be a problem, even next season.
Your take on Carter is right on — he needs to be more assertive, and if he has some success, pitchers will walk him out of fear. The problem is, there hasn’t been any success. Carter is looking more and more like a black, right-handed version of Jack Cust (ughhh). It’s a mighty small sample size, but his track record in the minors shows similar things, and if the guy can’t hit for average or make consistent contact in the minors, why should we think he can improve on that in the majors? His numbers should drop off unless he improves, which he might. That being said, he needs to play everyday while he’s up here, which should be for the remainder of the season. Sizemore needs to start not because we should be excited about him, but because he has been the only one plugged into 3B and had some success. Considering his youth and pedigree, he should be looked at as our 3B heading into next year. Their infield of Weeks, Sizemore and Carter still doesn’t impress me, and I’m hoping the A’s have some sense to make their outfield this year consist of Taylor and Miller.
"I don't know a (expletive) Jew who would have the balls to say that. Let me just get this straight. You don't ever tip, huh?" -- Chris Penn, from Reservoir Dogs
I agreed with you to some extent about Harden.
But i disagreed with almost everything about Carter and the younger guys. He did hit for average in the minors to some extent (.337 average in his breakout 2009 season).
His numbers should drop off unless he improves, which he might.
Uhh yeah?? Isn’t that true for, like, everyone?
And Sizemore needs to start because we should be excited for him for the very reason you stated, he has had success. He’s hit well for the A’s, and has played solid D. And if Weeks, Sizemore, and Carter don’t impress you, why would Taylor and Miller? Miller strikes out more than 30% of the time, and Taylor has yet to show any sign of consistency. He’s also turning 26 this year, he’s not young anymore…
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
From what i've seen, he looks fine.
By solid, i didn’t mean exceptional. Just that it’s fine.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
it's also a pretty new position for him. some adjustment period will be required
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
Their stats are off i think.
Because he has yet to make an error with the A’s, based off of Fangraphs.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Just kidding, 0 at second.
3 at 3rd. Ehh.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
His FPCT is right in tween LaRoche and Kouz, maybe that's why it looks "fine"
but given his offensive success, definitely our best option right now. If he continues to swing the bat, and get better on D, I can see him as our long term 3B
by asfansince1989 on Jul 7, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say he has been solid, but he is learning 3B at the major league level.
Given that, I can live with his current play at 3B, and we can expect improvement.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
and wait,
i’m seeing a .964 FP
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
Nevermind.
"Caring about stuff binds us to the other people that care about stuff, and that creates the communities that makes life worth living."
I hope you're right about Carter; as for Sizemore
the Tigers gave him up for David Purcey. I repeat, David Purcey. Doesn’t mean that diamonds in the ruff don’t exist, but I’m content with Sizemore at 3B for the same reason I’d be content with Taylor in the OF RIGHT NOW: They would be better options than what the A’s have previously run out there. I don’t care if Taylor is 26 or been underwhelming at AAA. The A’s can’t score any runs.
"I don't know a (expletive) Jew who would have the balls to say that. Let me just get this straight. You don't ever tip, huh?" -- Chris Penn, from Reservoir Dogs
Sizemore actually has a pretty good track record in the minors.
He’s an older prospect, but he’s been well above league average every single team he’s played for except his two major league stints with the Tigers. Even if he’s outperforming himself, it was still a great pickup.
what do I WANT to see?
What do you want to see from Carter?
DINGERZ!!!
Duh.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
oh that chris carter. ’cause i was gonna say a xxx-files where scully and mulder are abducted and probed with… um, i gotta go now!
by AV on Jul 7, 2011 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think this team has an offensive core period.
Sizemore and Weeks have been good for us but they are not going to sustain babip’s over .350 for a full season. Many have said and I agree that they could be complementary pieces on a contending team but there is no way they could be the centerpieces of an offense. I still have hopes based on Pennington’s past performance that he could be a league average or slightly above leagure average shortstop. I also have hope that some combination of Chris Carter or Daric Barton could be a league average or slightly below league average first basemen. I have no confidence in our outfield, I have no confidence in Suzuki, I have no confidence in the “find and aging slugger to play DH” strategy.
I say it is time to start trading pitchers- any of them, and in multiples. Gio, Cahill, Anderson, even Bailey if we could get something for him, everybody should be on the table. Beane has proven good (or lucky, I’m going to believe good) at producing pitching out of thin air, but can’t get a hitter to save his life. I say trade 2 of our big three and try and get multiple young hitters, I’m talking 2 or 3 4+ WAR players. Who are these players? Who will trade with us? I don’t know. I know the only parts we have to sell that might be worth anything are our pitchers and I know that I am tired of watching the A’s lose 2-1 ball games. I would like to see the A’s have a chance to contend sometime in the next 5 years.
Also build a new stadium. Anywhere in California, I don’t care at this point.
This team could be 'good enough' with no offensive core.
If all the position player starters were merely average then the A’s would be winning the division more often than not.
Blowing up a team with good, cheap, non-arb, and young pitching makes no sense. You’ll never recoup the huge value those players have.
All you have to do is get lucky with a few retreads like the Giants did last year and suddenly everyone is a genius again.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
I think this year has proven that theory not to be true.
I think the Giants got lucky last year, and are even luckier this year, and I would not like to have a plan for my team that relies solely on getting lucky. A below average offense plus an above average pitching staff is so far adding up to be a well under .500 team for Oakland.
I think if we trade 2 of our big 3 for 2 or more good, cheap young position players we could upgrade our position player situation from below average to above average. I think a starting staff made up of one of our big three, Dallas Braden, Tyson Ross, and 2 other players that Beane finds that may or may not include Outman, Harden or Moscoso would be an above average staff, not to mention that I have no doubt that Beane will again be able to harvest an above average relief corps. I think an above average starting 9, plus an above average starting rotation and an above average bullpen will equal an above average team.
Trade 2 of the 3.
What sort of team do you think will give us a good deal
for one of our big three pitchers?
A big part of the value of Cahill, Gio, and Anderson is that they are controlled for several years at a reasonable price. That is something that generally appeals to a team looking toward their future. A team like that generally isn’t going to want to give up prospects; they’ll be looking to sell off their veterans.
The sort of team that will give up a good package of prospects is a team that’s contending this year and wants solid starting pitching now. Cahill or Gio can provide that, but so would a solid veteran who is signed only for the rest of the year. The latter is just as useful to the contender but will cost a lot less in prospects.
As I’ve discussed elsewhere, I do think a trade of Cahill or Gio is possible (specifically, if Cincinnati is contending and it’s a seller’s market) but it’s not a natural fit for most teams. It’s even harder to imagine two candidates for such a trade. (Maybe Tampa Bay if they lose a starter?)
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Regarding whether it's a buyers or sellers market
Fangraphs discussed the topic yesterday.
In general, it’s looking like a buyer’s market.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 7, 2011 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting. Thanks for the link.
If that’s how it plays out, then I think the A’s will (and should) be relatively quiet this year. I know that will frustrate the people who want to blow up the team, but there’s no point in selling if there aren’t opportunities to get a good return.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Yep
At this point, I can see one or two trades in which we’re giving up a player for a couple of prospects to fill in a weakness in one of the contenders, but that’s about it.
Don't you realise you'll find next monday or next Tuesday/Your golden shoes day
by PDXAthleticsfan on Jul 7, 2011 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I think because Cahilll, Gio, and Anderson are locked up
They do have more long term value and may be valuable to more teams rather than contenders looking to get a starting pitcher to help them in the second half. I think Cincinnati might be a fit, but I think this season is a wash and I’m not dying to trade them right now or before the trade deadline even. I think in the off season when everybody thinks they are a contender there will be a larger market of teams that might have an interest in good, young, cheap pitching. So if I were Beane I would let it be known that they were available, and I would field all offers. But I wouldn’t make a move unless something wowed me. Now in the off season I would target high ceiling almost major league ready prospects and good young major leaguers on teams that might be a fit and try and make a move and again field offers. I think getting rid of 2 of these dudes is our only chance to get bats and we need bats.
Off-season trade definitely seems more likely
for one of those guys. The whole trading dynamic is different then.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Agreed: team has no offensive core, but
as A’s fans we are in a respect spoiled (can’t believe I said that) with years and years of quality starting pitching that is often times envied around the league. The reason why is truly quality starting pitching is terribly hard to find and therefore completely overvalued. They are expensive and hard to find. And the other guy is right, the team doesn’t need an “offensive core” to be good enough to compete for the postseason in the AL West. Unless you swing and hit it out in a trade (similar to Dan Haren) you probably are going to waste their value. Now, considering Gio, Cahill and Anderson (because of his health concerns) are nowhere near as good as Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Harden, or Haren, if someone gives you the house for one of those guys (Gio is probably the one on everyone’s radar right now) then I think you consider that. But it needs to be a robbery, nothing less, in order to trade those guys; not because that’s what they are worth, but because SPs are hard to come by.
"I don't know a (expletive) Jew who would have the balls to say that. Let me just get this straight. You don't ever tip, huh?" -- Chris Penn, from Reservoir Dogs
If you have a quantity that is overvalued...
Then you need to trade it for profit. This is the principle of “moneyball” this is what makes us as A’s fans feel smarterer.
As I said, I think the A’s tried the strategy you and the other guy proposed this year and obviously it hasn’t worked, I thought it might- a lot of us did, but it didn’t. And I have no confidence that it will moving forward. I think you need at least a couple of above average hitters in a major league lineup if you want to compete, I think this idea that we can somehow intellectualize mediocre and below mediocre hitters into the lineup for a quality team is getting old- the Giant’s comparison that the other guy made is getting old. The Giants had plus offensive players last year in Posey, Huff, and Torres and they had Burrell hitting a thousand homeruns in just a few games and they had Ross go crazy in the post season. We don’t have a single offensive player that I think could produce in their best season what any of Posey, Huff, Torres did last year, or do what Burrell and Ross did for any sustained amount of time. We need a core of at least decency. Let’s trade from a strength for some dudes that can hit. I’m not saying force a trade, I’m willing to wait until the winter meetings or longer, but we have to make a deal. We are not going to win with this team and if our goal is to make the playoffs then holding these starting pitchers will be a waste because they aren’t going to get us there by themselves.
I almost can’t watch this team.
Starting pitching is a position of strength for us.
I would like to see at least one of the seven traded. I won’t even specify which one, because I think it depends on what other teams want.
We should put all seven pitchers out there with the understanding that they represent a wide range of value, from barely worth trading for to star player to build a team around, and would command prices accordingly. They also represent different types of value, depending on whether a team wants something for just now or for later as well, or something relatively reliable or a gamble on someone who might be super hot but might break.
We should trade whichever one we can get the best deal on. The best deal meaning the best return relative to what we give up, not the best return total (which obviously would be better for Cahill or Gio than for Harden or McCarthy).
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
thoughts?
There have been some questions raised about Cox’s ability to stick at third base and some have suggested a move to second base.
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
If he can hit, he's young enough to learn 2B or LF.
Maybe he could play 2B and Weeks move to CF.
Either way… if he can hit, then we need him.
The big question is if he can hit. Both his K rate and BB rate have increased in AA, but his ISO is .078 after 145 PAs in AA. That makes me a little nervous.
by Brett Narloch on Jul 7, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I like the idea of Weeks in CF too, but I'm a little cautious like PL.
Weeks in center would allow Cardenas to take over second, the one position he might be able to stick at. Weeks certainly has the athleticism for center, and while he’s solid at 2B, he’s not Mark Ellis either.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Bailey worth too much for Cox
We have other pitchers who could help the Cards and don’t need to give our closer in the process.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
I'm all for trading Bailey
He’s got the closer mystique so he’s over-valued.
But bringing in a player who will block Sizemore seems a little hasty. Let the kid play for a while and see what you got.
We need outfielders! Anyone we can get means we don’t have to find a FA to fill in the position. There are guys like Mat Gamel out there who can supposedly hit but aren’t cutting it in the IF.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
He has the best ERA of any pitcher ever.
let’s make sure we get a good player in return if we part with him…
Also Bailey is not as replaceable as a typical closer, he is much better than our past guys like Koch, Dotel, Foulke, etc. He’s no Mariano Rivera, but he is very very good.
I guess my point is, no rush to trade him whatsoever, we can keep him as long as we like and only trade him if a great deal comes along.
We need hitting but no point in trading Bailey unless you get a potential minimum 3-5 WAR hitter under control for 2-4 years.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I would have no problem letting FDLS or Devine close games.
Ziegler, too, but I like him better in the role of “Setup Guy Against Three Right Handers” or the “Absolutely Need A Groundball Guy.”
Willingham Needs to Stay!
We are all used to seeing the injury bug hit our team, but achilles tendinitis CAN be managed successfully if we are wise with how he is used. Willingham has hit consistently this season despite getting no support around him. His bat gives us legitimate power that we haven’t seen in years. There is no reason why he couldn’t platoon in LF and be at DH on other days depending on matchups.
This offense can be built around him in a somewhat analagous manner that the A"s offense was built around Carney Lansford in the early to mid 80’s. While Willingham doesn’t offer the OBP of Lansford he is a batter that legitimately has to be respected by opposing pitchers.
So what to give him? He is 31, in his athletic prime and his power will not decrease over the next 2 years. I see nothing wrong with a multiyear contract with a club option for another year. I AM SICK AND TIRED OF WATCHING BEANE SQUANDER GOOD PLAYERS FOR “HOPE AND PRAYER PROSPECTS” that may or may not pan out. Please see MIchael Taylor and Chris Carter…
For just once I ask that we retain a legitimate power bat that can anchor a (I hate to say it…maybe promising) offense built around Weeks, Sizemore, and fill in the blanks with your imagination.
Last thing, I am not as hot on Crisp as I was. Somehow his offensive pop has decreased (Samson conspiracy theorists about head shaving apply here) as well as DeJesus (reincarnation of Johny Damon in Oakland).
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Willingham has never been 100% healthy for a full season, and can't play anywhere but DH.
He’s not a fit for this team. Carter is the DH of the future, and we cant afford to have bad defense (look whats happened this year compared with last year)
Sigh. Stanton, again.
Hitting the ball like he’s pissed off at it.
I WANT ONE OF THOSE FOR US
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
Carter could hit the ball with platonic love
If it goes over the fence, I don’t care.
Cardenas!!!! WoooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOO
by Mattel on Jul 7, 2011 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Not only do I think it's ridiculous to put Harden in long relief,
I think the A’s should try and sign Harden to an extension. He’s only 29, and his ZIPs rest of the season projection gives him a 3.52 FIP this year. Harden looked bad last year because of terrible control, but the fact is that if he’s healthy, he’s one of the better pitchers in baseball. Obviously he’s a huge, massive, astronomically terrible health risk. But in the small chance that he does stay healthy, he has the potential to put up 5, 6 WAR seasons, and the A’s need to take that sort of risk. If they could sign him to a 3 year, $8 million dollar extension, something like that, they should do it. The other benefit is that, unlike taking flyers on high risk/high reward position players, Harden doesn’t eat up any roster space if he fails… he’ll simply be on the DL.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
I feel like you might be biased....King Richard
But I completely agree. 29? Wow. All this pending how he pitches this year, of course, but taking flyers on guys is often a good idea.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
I think that roster spot logic is solid.
You have to like a guy who is great when he’s here and is totally gone when he’s gone. The worst thing is those guys that get crypto-injured and just hover on the edge of suck for weeks and weeks on the roster because they’re only sort of hurt. Best to get a guy who is either on fire or off the roster with nothing in between. Duchscherer was good that way. Harden could be, too.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
couldn't we spend the $8 mln more wisely on a probability basis?
the artist formerly known as inbillywetrust
I'll agree if you want to extend him beyond this season
Personally, that’s not my vote but if that’s the way the A’s play it then absolutely he should be in the rotation.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I'm not too worried about Carter.
He went 0-30 to start his career, and look similar to how he looks now, only a lot worse. I think he’s a little nervous and thinking too much, but that should go away no problem with time. I don’t think it’s anything big.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
Clearly, he didn't spend enough time on the bench.
We started playing him too soon.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
Here is to a speedy recovering to Nico's day-to-day diagnosis
Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, and David DeJesus, I’d like to keep at least one. Just unsure of who. I think Willingham has the most advantages in staying, although I still think CoCo is good and would be doing much better with some bats around him and behind him in a lineup (he should not be batting 3rd!) I’d love to see Taylor up right now, and trade DDJ for anything we can get.
As for the pitching: Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Rich Harden, Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, and Tyson Ross. I’d like to run with the following rotation out of the break: Gio, Cahill, McCarthy, Harden, and Moscoso, while attempting to package Tyson Ross and another prospect or two for an actual Major League Bat. Leaving Outman for Long Relief duties and for Rich Harden emergency duties. However, having a player coming off of Tommy John as an emergency escape route for another oft-injured players seem silly, it is better than having Godfrey fill such a role. Hell, I think FDLS could get some great innings in as our Long Relief/Emergency Starter.
Going forward, I mainly want to see Carter play everyday, and see MTaylor get his chance. We need to know what we have here, and then judging on an extended audition from each player, we can determine the other various holes to fill. Also, Recker or Donaldson need some MLB ABs. Powell should be sent down. If a team in need of a Catcher comes calling during the trade deadline, I’d love to ship Suzuki away for any MLB bat, and I think this may happen (obviously, we would need to couple Suzuki with a Top 10 Prospect to get anything good in return). So, basically, I want to see the following positions filled by players who just may be the answer: 1B Carter, 0F Taylor, 2B Weeks (duh), and 3B Sizemore, for the rest of the season. Lets see how Brett looks when he comes back from injury, and who knows, we may have a firm foundation built for 2011-2012. In which case, I’d make the argument for trading either Trevor Cahill or Andrew Bailey for an OF Bat or IF Bat.
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 7, 2011 12:18 PM PDT reply actions
I disagree about moving Harden to the bullpen.
He doesn’t really have a future with Oakland, but if he’s healthy, he’s probably more attractive to a contender than Moscoso or Outman are. Keep Harden in the rotation until he either gets hurt or we can trade him to a contender.
Or the A's can sign him to some extension like King Richard mentioned earlier.
$8M over 3 years for Harden is not a bad idea at all.
Ross needs to start over Moscoso
Planning a rotation with someone that has a 58% fly ball rate coupled with 5.5% HR/FB rate is crazy.
I get that Moscoso had strong results, but can we be proactive for once and put him long relief when Ross gets back? He’s going be hit like a rented, substandard mule sooner than later.
Tyson's last two rehab starts have been pretty crappy
If that continues I’d rather see Moscoso stay up while Ross figures things out is AAA.
The more I think about it, the more I want the A's to start trading relievers.
This organization really finds great relievers pretty easily. Ryan Webb, who didn’t make AN’s top 50 prospects in 09, is now a serviceable reliever. Relievers are overvalued by some, and are our best shot at making a deal that doesn’t really hurt us while adding to our team.
"Some of us know him as the a-hole who piled into Ray Fosse in an All-Star game (it's why Ray is the way he is folks)" - OptimistPrime
If I were Beane, I wouldn't look to move relievers exclusively
but I’d use them to “sweeten” other deals. With the exception of Fuentes and Balfour, they’re all young and cost controlled. Dealing strictly relievers generally won’t fetch fantastic returns, but if you’re targeting a prospect and the team balks, adding a Devine or a Breslow to the deal might get it done.
A trade I would like to see entertained:
Trevor Cahill to the Reds for Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso
The Reds are 3.0 GB of the Cardinals, but their major league roster is certainly talented enough to compete, were it not for their rotation. Cueto and Leake have been good, Arroyo and Volquez have been horrible. A quality starter puts them right back in the NL Central race, and they might overpay for him.
Cincinnati has two stud catching prospects in Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal. Mesoraco is closer to the majors, so I’m assuming they’d rather keep him than Grandal but that’s just wild speculation. I liked Grandal in the draft last year, so I’d prefer targeting him.
They also have one of the best first baseman in the league in Votto, who’s blocking former 2008 top draft pick Yonder Alonso. I typically don’t like analyzing trade proposals but I think Cahill for Grandal and Alonso is a fair deal. Both teams are dealing from a position of strength.
by NateHST on Jul 7, 2011 1:02 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I'd also like to see Suzuki and a reliever moved to somebody like Boston for an OF, since have about a billion of them.
With Crawford and Ellsbury, the Red Sox really have just one spot in the OF after JD Drew heads to free agency this winter. To fill that one spot, they have Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Bryce Brentz and Alex Hassan.
Reddick is the most highly thought of prospect by most accounts, and he’s currently sporting an OPS of 1.051 for Boston. Kalish is injured, but he’s not that different from Reddick, and he was considered better by Sickels’ rankings last year. Bryce Brentz has an OPS of 1.039 over two levels (he’s currently in high-A), and Alex Hassan has a slash of .317/.440/.480 for Boston’s Double-A affiliate.
Surely they’d part with one of them for something like Suzuki and Devine.
They don't really need Suzuki now, Saltalamacchia apparently remembered how to play.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I think Billy and newBob say that every day
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
You're right, which is why I added a reliever to the deal.
Although, Saltalamacchia is really, really bad as a right-batter against LHP. Suzuki’s not really great against lefties either, but still. Varitek is 39 years old. It would upgrade the position and give them two viable options at catcher going forward.
If I were the Red Sox, I wouldn’t hesitate to deal one of three expendable prospects to upgrade the major league roster. At the very least, it’s insurance for when Saltalamacchia remembers how bad he is, for Oakland’s sake.
But you want to move Suzuki and Devine together and just get one OF prospect?
That seems weird. Devine is worth more than that by himself.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
If Devine was worth that, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But I don't think he is.
In the A’s system, Devine is pretty replaceable. I’d trade a good reliever for a good position prospect pretty much everyday.
nice job laying out the trade.
The Reds make so much sense as a trade partner right now. Our strengths are their glaring weaknesses and vice versa.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
It's an especially good fit because,
unlike other potential buyers, the Reds can fully appreciate the value of Cahill’s contract — ie, that he remains reasonably priced for several years — in a way that many of the other contenders would not, either because they expect to be rebuilding again soon or because they have enough budget that the price is less crucial than the prospects given up.
I was figuring the trade as Cahill + reliever → Grandal + Alonso + third prospect. That gives more room to tweak the value for a fair trade.
I don’t think the key here is that the Reds might overpay for him, especially if the trade market turns out to be a buyer’s market. I think it’s more about win-win for two teams with complementary needs.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
The fact that we each came up with it independently
tends to support our assertions that it is a natural fit.
I wonder what Reds fans have to say about it.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I went to the SBN Reds site.
They brought up Gonzalez and Cahill a few weeks ago. Somebody suggested Votto and Wood for Gonzalez and Cahill. They seem to think the A’s would want too much. I’m not a subscriber to that website, so I can’t make a fanpost or anything, though.
And then two years from now, or three...
The A’s are where they are now, and then they sell off for prospects and rebuild, and then again, and then again…and before you know it, you’re the Royals and the Pirates.
The A’s now have a pennant-caliber pitching staff in place. The problem is minimal: two players who can mash. One could be Carter, the other could be Taylor. In any case, play your cards as if one of those will live up to the hype, and trade for another.
The rebuild cycle sounds like a good one, but it’s really a curse.
PL78 is advocating dealing Gonzalez and Cahill for Votto.
There would be no pennant-caliber pitching staff to build around.
You said "I'd rather sell for prospects and rebuild"
And that doesn’t work.
But here’s the staff, and maybe it is pennant-winning, assuming its healthy: Anderson, a re-signed Harden and/or McCarthy, Braden, Moscoso, Outman and Ross. No superstars, but on the other hand, if Votto has a Holiday-type beginning to his A’s career, you’re back ten games under .500.
Wait, what?
Having an incredibly talented farm system doesn’t work out for teams? Hey, remember how good the Rays are? Do you think they bought their talent like the Yankees or what? They had several years of being really bad, acquired a whole mess load of talented prospects. And behold, they were good. That’s how it works when your team is poor.
Also known as the
“Branch Rickey Method of Winning Baseball Games”. Nothing new under the sun, is there?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
The Rays are a really bad example
Unless you’re willing to wait another ten years — I mean, when you’re really really awful for eight of those ten years, AND you make good draft choices AND your choices come of age at the same time, or nearly the same time. Yes, then you can be a four or five year powerhouse…
When I first came to AN a few years ago, a lot of the folks here had a “burn down the barn” mentality, but a few consecutive years of mediocrity have changed their attitudes.
In 2007, seeing the team was coming up short, Beane burned down said barn and traded his top three starting pitchers. Four years later, it would make me sick to watch him do it again.
Also, the Royals have an historically good farm system right now.
I’d be pretty happy to be in the Royals shoes right now.
They've had that before
Do you want to wait ten or fifteen years for an “historically good” farm system?
They've had good farm systems before
They brought up Damon. They brought up Jermaine Dye. They brought up Zach Grienke. Maybe they haven’t had quite as many come of age at the same time, but they’ve been playing this game for a long time.
So far it hasn’t worked. As for the future, we’ll see.
They had Damon...Dye was from Atlanta.
Grienke was past that generation of players. They’ve never had a farm like they do now.
by AthleticsReign on Jul 7, 2011 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions
They brought up Damon in 1995. They brought up Greinke in 2004. Dye didn't come up with KC.
He came up with the Braves.
This is pretty different.
Again...
We’ll see.
In any event, it’s taken how many years for Kansas City to finally get the farm system they need to compete? Fifteen years, sixteen years? It took the Rays ten years. The Pirates might be for real. How many years has that been?
Life is too short. Sorry.
I'd still do it, by the way. It's a really good fit.
The Reds have dabbled in moving Alonso in the outfield, since Votto isn’t moving off 1B anytime soon. Does anybody have any word on how successful that experiment has been?
I think if we go big with a trade to the Reds
it’s with Gio. As much as I would hate to trade him because he is such a great pitcher and such an awesome chemistry guy, his dominance factor would probably net us more than Cahill, even though Gio is three years older. If we could trade Gio, Pennington for Cozart, Alonso, Mesoraco, T. Wood, and Sappelt, I’d probably pull the trigger. But of course, I’d be sad,
That trade is approaching, maybe even passing, Dan Haren territory.
That’s three of their top ten prospects, Sappelt (Sickels had him #13), and a successful major league starter. Anyway, Pennington would make the Reds worse.
Pennington is basically Janish 2.0
but younger, which I guess would be the appeal. He’s better than Renteria though. And yeah if we trade Gio, I think it should be in Dan Haren territory.
Pennington has been worse this year than Janish.
I don’t understand why they’d want Pennington when they could just keep Cozart.
No way they give up five good prospects like that.
Offer someone good like Cahill or Gio and you can pry two out of them, but not half of their top 10 list. That’s just crazy.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
I hate to say it cause he still has the highest ceiling
but I would offer Anderson before I’d offer Cahill or Gio.
Official Athletics Nation Rotating Tagline Editor - Pam liked my old sig better.
My thoughtful watermelon is easily mistook for an early American catapult.
I agree completely
but Anderson went down for six weeks and he won’t be back before the trade deadline. A trade with the Reds could be dependent on their desperation to acquire a quality SP before the deadline.
I think that with Anderson never having retained the velocity he had in the second half of 09
and Gio’s subsequent rise in velocity, Gio now has a higher ceiling than Anderson.
"I think what baseball projects, and what classical music needs, is the sense that one goes to a live event not to experience greatness, but to experience the possibility of greatness.... Not every game is great but what we go for is the chance that this particular game might be.' —David Lang
I have the power to turn this green, so I will.
But I also think Cahill can bring back more than just 2 prospects. They’d throw in Frazier or Gomes or something too. Cahill has a ton of hype.
They're 50-100 prospects, both with draft pedigrees.
Maybe one or two of the C+, high ceiling mold, but it’s a pretty fair trade as it stands. I liked iglew’s idea of adding a reliever to get a decent third prospect.
Adding a reliever for a 3rd prospect
gives some room for evening out the trade if the Alonso + Grandal = Cahill equation is not quite equal.
I want another guy whose name starts with Y, just because I think it would be funny to get three Y guys in one trade. Based on that, someone suggested Yorman Rodriguez, but I don’t know anything about him.
Sweet is the lore which Nature brings; / Our meddling intellect
Mis-shapes the beauteous forms of things:— / We murder to dissect.
FanGraphs ranked him 6th (Grandal 4th, Alonso 5th) among Reds prospects.
Tall and long and toolsy and only eighteen. He’s in A-ball, and while he’s not setting the world on fire, he’s holding his own.
I don't like the idea of trading Cahill because his options extend through 2017
That’s six more seasons. The A’s could make a number of other trades and have the prospects gained from those trades fully contributing for years while Cahill was still with the A’s.
Roster changes
Willingham and Balfour in; Godfrey and Moscoso out.
Makes sense. Looking at the schedule, the A’s won’t need a fifth starter until July 28th, at which point (presuming no trades), they’d have to make a choice between Ross and Moscoso for that spot.
I'd love to see Fuentes and a pile of cash traded to a contender who needs a LOOGY.
"I heard the reason Geren never played Powell was so he could have someone around to fetch him a cushion."- UrgentMirth
by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 7, 2011 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
McCarthy In, Outman Out, Carter Stays
More of the same.
Best Starting Staff in AAA?
I wouldn’t want to be one of the River Cats next opponents…
umm... Lenny DiNardo is pitching tonight, my friend.
The Cats have lost nine in a row.
"I heard the reason Geren never played Powell was so he could have someone around to fetch him a cushion."- UrgentMirth
by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 7, 2011 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
They're going for a "Geren" (10 losses in a row)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
2nites lineup
Weeks 2B
Crisp CF
Matsui DH
Willingham LF
Sizemore 3B
CoJax RF
Carter 1B
Suzuki C
Penny SS
About as good as our lineup can look…..what do you guys think>
My mannerism a prism/ And it should shine
Light it if you would/ Be so kind, right now'd
Be A' Good Time
by DaRubiesSLOKingsA's on Jul 7, 2011 4:06 PM PDT reply actions
I might DH willingham, play DeJesus in Left, and sit Matsui
But there’s no way they will sit or cut Matsui when he is sitting on 499 hr.
by Billy Frijoles on Jul 7, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Against a LHP (Holland) that's a perfectly good order.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
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